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Can this hobby stay ahead of the counterfeiters??
cutmywaythrough
Posts: 3 ✭
Yes or no, why or why not?
I'm very interested in honest opinions on this. Is this hobby safe 10 years down the road? 20 years? Longer? Or is it likely in the not too distant future that technology and greed give the counterfeiters too much of an edge and diagnostics currently used to weed them out will no longer work?
Coins were my first hobby as a youngster in the late 80's to early 90's and in the last few years the hobby is catching my attention again. I've been reading this board, attended the last few summer ANA shows, and been following some of the high profile auctions. So the interest is still there, but concern about the issue of counterfeit to the future of this hobby is probably my biggest obstacle to collecting again.
I'm very interested in honest opinions on this. Is this hobby safe 10 years down the road? 20 years? Longer? Or is it likely in the not too distant future that technology and greed give the counterfeiters too much of an edge and diagnostics currently used to weed them out will no longer work?
Coins were my first hobby as a youngster in the late 80's to early 90's and in the last few years the hobby is catching my attention again. I've been reading this board, attended the last few summer ANA shows, and been following some of the high profile auctions. So the interest is still there, but concern about the issue of counterfeit to the future of this hobby is probably my biggest obstacle to collecting again.
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If we all thought counterfeiters were going to win, we'd sell our collections immediately and go do something else. Any other course of action would be completely foolish, apart from those select few who collect expensive coins purely for the sake of collecting.
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It's going to be a battle that will be harder to fight as time goes on
They get the crooks but it takes time after many people are burned. Text
Why?
1. Lack of enforcement of existing counterfeiting laws. The Secret Service is overtaxed with its other duties. Examples need to be made but it does not appear to be happening.
2. Too many slab varieties (due to marketing considerations) make it easy for the counterfeiters to pass off their product in what appear to be genuine slabs. The average collector or dealer is not going to be able to notice that the slab is not quite right.
3. An increasingly ignorant collector base that knows only what they see on the internet. They are easily fooled when "key dates" appear in on-line auctions. (1893-S Morgans, anyone ... or have about a "CC"?)
4. An increasingly sophisticated counterfeit product. Just think of how much the quality has improved since the Trade Dollar counterfeits started appearing about 15 years ago.
5. Many/most of the supply comes from China. They could care less about our counterfeiting laws.
Integrity will not follow them to the boneyard. No worries. The future looks bright and the grave looks dark. Then again, I've been blinded by the light
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<< <i>Counterfeiters were around B.C. I think the hobby is far ahead and above counterfeiters. They (counterfeits and those who would continue passing them) are a dying breed.
Integrity will not follow them to the boneyard. No worries. The future looks bright and the grave looks dark. Then again, I've been blinded by the light
And it's interesting that some counterfeits have some street cred. There are contemporary counterfeits in the ancient coin trade, obsolete notes and Morgan Dollars that have a following.
<< <i>I have to admit, as I posted about a man who is making millions off PCGS counterfeit holders right now. Check out my other post on it. The certification companies are on the sidelines and either don't want to spend the money to prosecute this growing group of people out there or don't want the integrity diluted by the fact that these exist in LARGE numbers around the world. It is estimated that PCGS and NGC counterfeits in private collections could be in the BILLIONS. One thing they need to consider is if they don't start aggressively pursuing prosecution that they face civil suits from unsuspecting buyers as they are in essence colluding and enabling by not attempting to counter these criminals. Our attorney feels that this may be the first step necessary to get them off their thumbs. A class action lawsuit to make them enforce their integrity. >>
$BILLIONS? That's probably totally bogus considering the entire coin market is about $3 BILL/year. I'd put the extent of fakes at around 1-5% of the market which is $30MILL-$150MILL/yr. And even at that amount I know the dealers I work with do not see 5% in fakes coming their way. Yes, fakes are a problem. And altered/messed with authentic coins are a much bigger problem (10x bigger?). More money is lost by collectors where they bought over-graded and over-priced authentic coins.
Fakes are one reason why I will stick to choice/gem 19th and early 20th gold and silver coins where I can easily judge unique luster and striking patterns, surface texture, die detail, die polish, die cracks, and other mint made "flaws" that make those coins very hard to duplicate. It's not like a counterfeiter is going to employ all the skills, techniques, and flaws of the 19th century US mint to make a perfect counterfeit US coin die. I'm not as confident when dealing with circ coins, cleaned coins, damaged coins, etc where it's much easier to mask a problem. The TPG should have little to do with it. If you can't 100% rely on your own and/or your dealer's skills to avoid fake coins, you probably shouldn't be buying them. Way too many newbie dealers over the past 20 years that have let their guards down and now just flip holders. This has dumbed down the general hobby in many regards. If the fake slabs are out there in the $BILLIONs, it's amazing that I have yet to even see one in person....and it's not like I've been hiding under a rock the past 30 years. And none of the half dozen or so dealers I know very well have complained once about being stuck with a fake slab. Time for everyone to brush up on their pre-slab era coin buying chops.
<< <i>This will be the "second-leg" value driver for TPG's. At first it was about objective grades and detecting problems, but now I think Authentication is just as important. >>
But will they also have to start authenticating the slabs themselves? I suspect that this is going to be a major issue in the not too distant future.
I always check my sources when it comes to buying a coin from a new entity; I would not buy a coin from a number of dealers in any event.
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<< <i>Yes or no, why or why not?
I'm very interested in honest opinions on this. Is this hobby safe 10 years down the road? 20 years? Longer? Or is it likely in the not too distant future that technology and greed give the counterfeiters too much of an edge and diagnostics currently used to weed them out will no longer work?
Coins were my first hobby as a youngster in the late 80's to early 90's and in the last few years the hobby is catching my attention again. I've been reading this board, attended the last few summer ANA shows, and been following some of the high profile auctions. So the interest is still there, but concern about the issue of counterfeit to the future of this hobby is probably my biggest obstacle to collecting again. >>
I have no problem what-so-ever staying ahead of the counterfeiters.
If folks are buying counterfeit coins then they need to step back, revisit the basic "duck rules", and stop buying until they can identify a counterfeit.
The name is LEE!
<< <i>The not-so-funny thing about this is that I have a way to make all new slabs virtually 100% counterfeit-proof and I even contacted a few folks at PCGS to see if they were interested. Never got a call back. Never got a single response to an email. >>
If they are like most corporations they have strict instructions from their legal department not to respond to any such "I have an idea" inquiries.
If they do, it opens them up to lawsuits.
Years ago, when I worked in the advertising department of an automotive manufacturer, we would sometimes receive "ad ideas" from the public. When received, I would immediately bring the correspondence to our legal department, who would, in turn, inform them that we did not accept unsolicited ad ideas. I never responded to any of the letters myself. This was company policy.
<< <i>Not when counterfeiting is considered an "honorable" profession as in China. We need a global treaty against counterfeiting with teeth in it and an anti-counterfeiting task force as part of the treasury department.
They get the crooks but it takes time after many people are burned. Text >>
It still is an "honorable" profession. Always has been.
When I was a kid at the tender age of 8 or so, I knew that there were cheap toys made in China that looked like the American made stuff.
The problem is that these Chinese coin copiers have a larger market when they leave the word "COPY" off their coins and their target audience are the "scum bags" that like to make big bucks selling these coins to the unsuspecting. In other words, its the "criminal business element" here within this country that is importing this stuff.
Who in their right mind would not buy something for $3.00 if they knew they could sell it for $250? You do not have to be a "coin collector" or "numismatic professional" to see this golden goose.
Illegal? Sure, but so is Methamphetamine, heroin, cocaine, fake Gucci bags and a host of other items which the criminal businessman is more than happy to provide to paying customers. It's a shame but it's also "life".
If you are going to collect coins and invest big money into them then you'd damn well better do your homework or else, take your licks.
The name is LEE!
<< <i>The not-so-funny thing about this is that I have a way to make all new slabs virtually 100% counterfeit-proof and I even contacted a few folks at PCGS to see if they were interested. Never got a call back. Never got a single response to an email. >>
ANTHING is possible but the real question is "Can we afford to do this?"
I'm positive that PCGS will not want to wrap my $10 IKE into a $40 slab at a $20 per coin submission level.
The name is LEE!
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>This is of concern to me as a coin collector. I've effectively stopped buying; I'm quite confident that the coins I now have are genuine. If counterfeiters become able to duplicate the kind of coins I collect, and my coins decline in value of a result, even if to zero value, then I'll still enjoy owning my coins and knowing (believing, more accurately) that they are genuine. If they were to decline to zero, while I would not enjoy the financial impact, it would not be material to my net worth. I'm keeping an eye on the quality of these counterfeit early coins, there was an 1806 draped bust half posted recently that fooled me, and that was a wake up call. With computer aided design and manufacturing, and seeing what Carr is able to do in his shop, I'm very reluctant to invest as heavily in pricey early coins, compared to how I used to feel, and would otherwise feel, in the absence of this threat. Convincing counterfeits also impact collectible antique furniture, toys, etc. Begs the question, "if you can't tell the difference, what does it matter?" Not saying that I think that, mind you. Just saying, someone could think that. >>
One of the ancillary objectives to my fantasy-date over-striking activities was to document the characteristics of die-struck pieces made (or modified) by using modern computerized technology. I've stated that objective from the beginning and I will continue with it.
I am not the only one who potentially could utilize similar technology. But at least I document what I've done rather than some actual counterfeiter who would stay hidden and sell to unsuspecting buyers.
Regardless, to date, I have not produced anything that would exceed the quality of an "Omega" counterfeit or the "1959-D Wheat Cent", for example.
The problem of high-quality counterfeits has been around for a while - ever since the first wave of high-quality $2.50 and $5.00 gold Indian Head coins from the Middle East in the 1960s.
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<< <i>My answer to the question is no! I respect DC for his statements of intent and production but nothing is stopping him or anyone else with a press from making a very good to undetectable counterfeit. This is just how it is. >>
Totally agree, and with garrynot's counterpoint to my earlier post, I would also have to agree. Not ALL of it's dead and "in the grave" or the dark, for that matter.
Some of these "counterfeits" become collectible, too.
But to DC's productions…. I don't see them, as such, to be "counterfeit" or violating the HPA (with mitigating circumstances) . Perhaps that's because they're advertised for what they are, to a few who have supported his work in the field of 'coining', as a manufacturing process, and an entrepreneurial business alongside us, along with the many other collectibles that fill the niche of collectors. For instance : 2009 SAE Proof , or the infamous '64 D Fantas "overstrike". Or the zombies.
There's such a fine line between all the layers of numismatics and collecting of 'artistic, or historic artifacts that it's actually quite pleasing. To have variety and a wide array.
Because that opens the doors, even as it may open a "can o worms" for others. I think the very nature and fun in the hobby is "finding our niche".
and as always,
Please correct me if and when I'm wrong. I ain't always right
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