Oil will NOT be over $100 in 3 years. Put me on record.
There's a lot of geopolitical maneuvering going on with oil. The price can do things we would never expect, just like it has in the past.
Oil in 3 years will be very, very hard to predict. A lot of crude is going into storage tanks at low prices right now. If they hit capacity, imagine what happens to the oil price then. I would expect some discounting, maybe a lot of discounting when the weaker hands can't hold on.
Demand will have to turn somersaults or supply will have to get significantly constrained before a big upward move can take place. The mothballed rigs in Baaken and Eagle Ford and West Texas are stacking up on used equipment lots quickly.
Like most booms, the last ones in are the biggest losers, and this is true for the companies who are still paying for leased equipment on contract who are still trying to milk everything they can from their sunk costs.
In the meantime, I wouldn't want to own solar stocks or Tesla right now, or maybe for the next decade.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
If you're a believer in the conspiracy theories or cycle theories, this is probably a good day to initiate a position. The time frame for several conspiracies and cycles is generally Sept/Oct, with prime dates being Sept 15, 22, and 23. A butterfly options spread on GLD and even SPY might be a pretty good way to play this. I haven't decided if I am going to gamble on a play here or not. I will probably just watch closely and try to jump on any trend that develops.
Decided to initiate a small gold position yesterday when gold was near 1100. I figured that the $1100 level was holding pretty well and that gold was due for a bump. Not sure how long I'll hold just yet.
Closed half of my options position after doubling. Now playing with house money. Going to let this run a bit further... The $1170 area might be hard to get through the first time, so I'll be looking to close the position around there.
Closed all of my long gold positions at 1150 today for a decent profit. I think gold is in a triangle consolidation so I'll look for it to hit the bottom boundary (1120's) and get long again.
Closed my long SP500 CALL options for an almost 90% gain. Went short earlier today when the ES futures were around 2011. Wednesday should be interesting, could be a decent drop.
Gold is bumping 1170 again, and this is going to be a key level. If we breakout over 1170 that should be a big sign the gold is changing modes. I'm adding to my long position if there's another pullback, but I admit this will be a little speculative.
Originally posted by: cohodk You're on a roll PC, keep it going.
Well I was... I didn't exit the position when I could have for a good profit, I thought the decline would continue. I'm looking to take a loss if there's any continued SP500 strength, or maybe get out for a break-even if there is a pullback.
Added to my long gold position at $1170. I expect gold to hold 1167 at least, with maybe a few brief undershoots.
Added to long gold position this morning on dip to 1165. I believe this dip is temporary, but I am ready to bail on the extra contracts on a dip below 1160.
Originally posted by: ProofCollection Glad I added at 1165. The assault on $1225 should now be underway for gold. November should definitely see $1200+ gold.
I think your assumption was premature...
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
Evidently. It looked like a perfect setup for gold to finally break above 1170, although admittedly there were was an excess of long positions at the Comex so it's not surprising the market went the opposite direction. I won't be too surprised to see gold recover by tomorrow, but it's got more work to do to bring back bullish hopes.
Originally posted by: derryb took a rather large position in USLV at 11.25. Figure the polish is probably wearing off of the jobs report about now.
Not a bad call for a highly probably short term bounce. Metals do not look good right now, and I bet most PM bulls are very discouraged. Given the strength in the dollar I can't see how metals will take off anytime soon. But OTOH, the time to buy is when the most die hard PM bulls finally start to get discouraged.
So I did end up shorting the ES when it hit 2110 on Nov 3. It didn't drop right away but I finally gained traction on it. I exited today to lock in my profit, but I'm looking to go long if it gets into the 2010's.
Gold is clinging to 1080, and I'm guessing will just languish in this area for a while unless it decides to take a tumble. A quick short here looks good on a drop below 1070.
I'm currently looking to go long SP500 on any pullback or weakness.
I'm watching gold to see if it can close out the week over 1080-ish. If it does not, I'll be ready to short. There are some indicators that show that gold could move back up a bit for a $10-40 move upward, but it will be nothing to get excited about.
@jmski52 said:
Oil will NOT be over $100 in 3 years. Put me on record.
There's a lot of geopolitical maneuvering going on with oil. The price can do things we would never expect, just like it has in the past.
Oil in 3 years will be very, very hard to predict. A lot of crude is going into storage tanks at low prices right now. If they hit capacity, imagine what happens to the oil price then. I would expect some discounting, maybe a lot of discounting when the weaker hands can't hold on.
Demand will have to turn somersaults or supply will have to get significantly constrained before a big upward move can take place. The mothballed rigs in Baaken and Eagle Ford and West Texas are stacking up on used equipment lots quickly.
Like most booms, the last ones in are the biggest losers, and this is true for the companies who are still paying for leased equipment on contract who are still trying to milk everything they can from their sunk costs.
In the meantime, I wouldn't want to own solar stocks or Tesla right now, or maybe for the next decade.
Bad call from 4/2015 on Tesla....
TSLA...4/1/2015......$187.59
TSLA..4/3/2017.......$298.52
Great Call on Solar Energy ETF (KW)
4/3/2017........$35.96
4/6/2015.......$81.84
Add me to the list: "Oil will NOT be over $100 in 3 years. Put me on record."
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
Comments
There's a lot of geopolitical maneuvering going on with oil. The price can do things we would never expect, just like it has in the past.
Oil in 3 years will be very, very hard to predict. A lot of crude is going into storage tanks at low prices right now. If they hit capacity, imagine what happens to the oil price then. I would expect some discounting, maybe a lot of discounting when the weaker hands can't hold on.
Demand will have to turn somersaults or supply will have to get significantly constrained before a big upward move can take place. The mothballed rigs in Baaken and Eagle Ford and West Texas are stacking up on used equipment lots quickly.
Like most booms, the last ones in are the biggest losers, and this is true for the companies who are still paying for leased equipment on contract who are still trying to milk everything they can from their sunk costs.
In the meantime, I wouldn't want to own solar stocks or Tesla right now, or maybe for the next decade.
I knew it would happen.
Is anyone here familiar with or have any experience with Chris Ciovacco? Thoughts on his chart analytics? CoHo?
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
<< <i>Is anyone here familiar with or have any experience with Chris Ciovacco? Thoughts on his chart analytics? CoHo? >>
Never heard of him. But in looking at the performance of his funds since 2009 he has underperformed the SP-500.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Gold is bumping 1170 again, and this is going to be a key level. If we breakout over 1170 that should be a big sign the gold is changing modes. I'm adding to my long position if there's another pullback, but I admit this will be a little speculative.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Well I was... I didn't exit the position when I could have for a good profit, I thought the decline would continue. I'm looking to take a loss if there's any continued SP500 strength, or maybe get out for a break-even if there is a pullback.
Added to my long gold position at $1170. I expect gold to hold 1167 at least, with maybe a few brief undershoots.
I knew it would happen.
Glad I added at 1165. The assault on $1225 should now be underway for gold. November should definitely see $1200+ gold.
I think your assumption was premature...
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
took a rather large position in USLV at 11.25. Figure the polish is probably wearing off of the jobs report about now.
Not a bad call for a highly probably short term bounce. Metals do not look good right now, and I bet most PM bulls are very discouraged. Given the strength in the dollar I can't see how metals will take off anytime soon. But OTOH, the time to buy is when the most die hard PM bulls finally start to get discouraged.
Gold is clinging to 1080, and I'm guessing will just languish in this area for a while unless it decides to take a tumble. A quick short here looks good on a drop below 1070.
I'm currently looking to go long SP500 on any pullback or weakness.
I'm watching gold to see if it can close out the week over 1080-ish. If it does not, I'll be ready to short. There are some indicators that show that gold could move back up a bit for a $10-40 move upward, but it will be nothing to get excited about.
One more year to go derryb.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Bad call from 4/2015 on Tesla....
TSLA...4/1/2015......$187.59
TSLA..4/3/2017.......$298.52
Great Call on Solar Energy ETF (KW)
4/3/2017........$35.96
4/6/2015.......$81.84
Add me to the list: "Oil will NOT be over $100 in 3 years. Put me on record."