<< <i>Apathy here doesn't equate to apathy everywhere else. Times change. The 3 PM blogs I visit daily are quite active, as much now as in 2011. And there are certainly as many bears as there are bulls. >>
Well maybe im wrong....the PM market has further to drop or longer to stagnate then.
As I have explained it's not apathy... at least with me. But I will point out that you haven't been posting any trades either. WHERE ARE YOUR TRADES? Are you apathetic or just not posting your trades?
I haven't seen any good tradeable setups since my posts in January. I think people see that the stock market is far overbought and gold & silver are oversold. The problem is that I'm not seeing any reversals (even temporary) coming with any certainty, but I'm also loathe to buy (non-PM) stocks in this overbought market and also loathe to short PM stocks or PMs in this oversold condition, or go long on the USD even though these trends could continue which is amazing by historical standards.
The next 2 weeks look interesting for the markets as I think we'll see spikes in volatility. Stocks are in a window where it could go either way after the retracement of the recent ~90 point drop for the SP500, and gold is due for a bounce also, but I'm not see anything certain enough to make a call.
I think gold has held up remarkably well despite the rise in the dollar. I think the Fed is going to have to do something to "sabotage" the dollar's strength. The situation with the rising dollar and all othercurrencies plummeting is not a situation that can be allowed to persist, in my opinion.
For those who are playing the gold vs silver ratio game it looks to me like a good time to convert gold to silver as I think it may outperform gold if/when PMs take off again.
Mostly apathetic. Many more timely trading opportunities. I did a long trade on oil in early Feb. I dont trade everyday and am in cash in trading accounts usually about 70% of the time. I take a sizeable position (20-30%) and hold for a day to a month. A dozen or so 10% trades in a year nets out to 20-30% annually. Im happy with that.
Stocks are tired, especially biotech which is getting a bit parabolic. There will be a very nice opportunity for a short here in the month or two (maybe even tomorrow). Oil will be another great trade as will PMs.
Relatively gold did ok vs the dollar, I agree. The FED can do virtually nothing to weaken the dollar except cut rates to negative, although even this may be muted as the USA still has better prospects than any other country, and hence the dollar remains a better relative value. I also think silver has a slight relative value advantage over gold which is which is 70% of my PM purchases in the last 3 months have been silver.
For over a decade the rest of the world has been quite expensive for Americans. Now its our decade to take advantage of the fruits of the world.
The rising dollar is really not that big a deal. Our largest trading partner, China, has a currency that is mostly pegged to the dollar so any effects are muted. You think China and Japan are unhappy they own US debt? I bet Russia wishes it had more.
BTW--Apathy is not bad. In fact, I like it much better than greed or fear. Much easier to trade.
<< <i>Mostly apathetic. Many more timely trading opportunities. I did a long trade on oil in early Feb. I dont trade everyday and am in cash in trading accounts usually about 70% of the time. I take a sizeable position (20-30%) and hold for a day to a month. A dozen or so 10% trades in a year nets out to 20-30% annually. Im happy with that.
Stocks are tired, especially biotech which is getting a bit parabolic. There will be a very nice opportunity for a short here in the month or two (maybe even tomorrow). Oil will be another great trade as will PMs.
Relatively gold did ok vs the dollar, I agree. The FED can do virtually nothing to weaken the dollar except cut rates to negative, although even this may be muted as the USA still has better prospects than any other country, and hence the dollar remains a better relative value. I also think silver has a slight relative value advantage over gold which is which is 70% of my PM purchases in the last 3 months have been silver.
For over a decade the rest of the world has been quite expensive for Americans. Now its our decade to take advantage of the fruits of the world.
The rising dollar is really not that big a deal. Our largest trading partner, China, has a currency that is mostly pegged to the dollar so any effects are muted. You think China and Japan are unhappy they own US debt? I bet Russia wishes it had more.
BTW--Apathy is not bad. In fact, I like it much better than greed or fear. Much easier to trade. >>
I agree that options are limited for the fed to weaken the dollar. Any QE move would contradict their message about the strong economy and threat of raising rates. Lowering rates would have muted effect I agree and again would contradict their mantra for the past couple of years. Raising rates isn't an option because it will strengthen the dollar further. But I think the strong dollar hurts more than you say. It will be very tough for Boeing to sell aircraft and for other companies to sell their big ticket items. It also works against all of the big companies with large holdings of other currencies outside of the US. In fact, we might start seeing this be a major drag on earnings for the multinationals. I agree the strengthening dollar makes US debt more attractive to foreigners and foreign holders of US debt are quite happy with how the currency play worked out for them.
There will probably be some earnings drag on the big multinationals. I posted this chart in another thread. SP500 vs 10yr treasury yields. You can see that when yields rise sharply the market does tend to trend sideways to slightly lower.
I was hoping some of you with a hell of a lot more economic knowledge could give an analysis on Palladium.
I would find it very informative to compare what I think (which is very basic) to possible future expectations as the metal relates to all niches it fills be it investment, industrial, jewelry, etc..
I don't think looking for a correlation between a currency and gold is valid. The yen is going to continue losing value, this will not be a good year for the yen.
<< <i>I don't think looking for a correlation between a currency and gold is valid. The yen is going to continue losing value, this will not be a good year for the yen. >>
Interesting that it has been so highly correlated, no?
<< <i>I don't think looking for a correlation between a currency and gold is valid. The yen is going to continue losing value, this will not be a good year for the yen. >>
Interesting that it has been so highly correlated, no? >>
Interesting yes. Meaningful? I'm not sure.
Stocks (SP500) has completed its retracement of the last pullback. This may be a good spot to get short stocks. (ES currently at ~2070).
I see play shaping up for today but I won't be able to trade it since I won't be near a computer. I think whatever direction the SP500 heads after the fed announcement is the direction it will go for a while.
My guess is that the fed would like to cool down the dollar strength (if possible) and attempt to get a negative market reaction, but I'd wait to see before jumping on. The market is ripe for a nice slice. A negative stock market reaction should allow gold to rebound $30-40 or so. I guess we'll find out...
There's no question that gold vs. USD/YEN, USD/AUD, and USD/CAD have been fairly well inversely correlated since 2011, much better than the dollar by itself. The Yen and Aud correlation goes back 14 years. You could also include 10yr/2yr USTreasury yield ratio in this group. Until that ratio finally turns upwards for good, PM's probably won't get a break. You could also toss the Gold/Silver ratio into this mix. When these Fab 5 change their spots, so will PMs.
Well, we got 4 out of the Fab 5 today. Nice flip around for currencies as the dollar tanks on FOMC news. It easily filled the huge gap at 97.65 from 2 weeks ago. NUGT loved it.
My thoughts of silver? If you follow Radomski, Rambus, and the bulk of them, silver is headed to the basement because their H&S patterns or Elliot Wave counts them so. Silver is currently sitting on support generated from 2006-2009. A move below that level invites $10 or even $7.50 before next major support kicks in. That's the story line most are taking. And that's based on their beliefs that the USDollar is headed to 110-120 and GSR to 80-100. Like Noonan says, only fools can predict how the current silver consolidation period is going to break (up or down). The vast majority say down. Silver futures positioning suggests down with both commercials and hedge funds (Managed Money) loaded with shorts. Same for gold where MM is carrying a near record position in gross gold shorts (89K the previous week). Sentiment in both gold and silver is far from previous lows so it could be washed out much further.
The GSR weekly chart suggests another 1-2 months is needed before the next high should occur. At the same time, the GSR daily chart looks stalled at the upper Bollinger Band following a lengthy 30-32 day rally. That's very LONG for any rally. GDX declined for 34 days into Thursday's new low (also very long for a GDX drop....though declines of 45-54 days have occurred twice before in the past couple of years). Most declines have ended in 18-30 days. I think GSR has gone too far for too long and needs a pull back. Of course that doesn't mean the banks can't continue to pile on silver derivatives to get the direction they want. A declining GSR could also come about with gold falling more than silver. The monthly GSR looks hellish. It has the potential to flip the 5-6 year IH&S around to the 110+ level. Of course, that runs into some cyclic problems. GSR over the past 20 years has sustained strong peaks in the 5-1/2 to 6-1/2 year range. Well, it's now already at the 6-3/4 year point with the peak having been 7 months ago....right on schedule. But if we look at the long 5 yr 3 month rise from 1998-2003, the current 4 year rise could reasonably continue into summer 2016.
The July 4th holiday period often results in turns for the PM's. Last week got us some scorching lows in the miners. HUI took out the 2008 low. GDX not quite there yet. I pay attention to Fib day counts in GDX at 21, 34, 55, and 89 days. The 55 day count was working like a champ for turns from Dec 2013 into early 2015. So Thursday's low on day 34, coinciding with a month/quarter end, a full moon, NFP report, Greece & Puerto Rico debt tensions, and a host of other things, all seems to be a worthy collection to offer up at least a brief turn. Based on the awful chart patterns it is hard not to say that the PM sector will crash one more time into $1040 gold and $12 silver. The chart patterns all but "guarantee" it. And that's what bothers me. Maybe that final crash won't come until after this summer. Everyone expects it now though. Hedge funds are loaded up with shorts much like they were for the final crash of 2014.
Silver and GDX have made usual round trip back to the other BB. 2 years of doing that. The weekly silver chart oscillators do show some promise. The daily oscillators look even better with some +divergence. Price has held at the lower price channel 3X now. Sugar has been on the rise as of late (supportive of silver imo). Silver seems to more predictive of GDX movements as of late than gold has. Nugt/Dust ratio volume has provided clues at times. In the last 3 big declines (Nov, Dec, March) we saw epic volume on one day with multiple days of very large volume. This past week we got the first epic day of volume followed by 4 strong down days. Quite similar to the Nov and Dec bottomings. Double bottoms in the stoch and aroon resetting again are all promising signs for nugt/dust ratio. I'd sort of agree with derryb here that silver may surprise with a bounce. I still won't rule out an April-June 2013 type slide where oscillators hit very low levels, only to stay there and grind lower for 2 months. The banks and hedge funds that push the paper silver and gold futures control the price. Where they want to send it, is where it goes.
Kid on CNBC who apparently won some contest is recommending Starbucks as a good investment because "Howard Shultz (CEO) is a genius". Howard is a pretty bright guy, but thats no reason to buy a stock. There is no relative value here. School is now open for the kid.
This is a chart of the biotech index ($BTK) vs the SP-500 for the last 20 years. Biotech has outperformed by 20x since 1998. WOW!!! Never underestimate the power of a mania but expect reversion to mean.
<< <i>This is a chart of the biotech index ($BTK) vs the SP-500 for the last 20 years. Biotech has outperformed by 20x since 1998. WOW!!! Never underestimate the power of a mania but expect reversion to mean.
>>
Looks like the same shape chart of historical and projected national debt and unfunded medicare and other rising elderly care expenses, characteristics of an aging population bulge
even so, the biotech sector bull market rally certainly looks extended and ripe for a fall, and it's been a good time to take profits for those who have been invested for that ride, while still remaining some allocated for future growth, even if bumpy as it has been periodically. This sector has a high beta or volatility rating which means bigger gains when good and bigger losses when bad. Just like the metals and especially the miners and especially junior miners and the exploratory industry.
For those who are new to investing in the biotech industry, this is probably a terrible time to establish a large position all of a sudden. Better to start small and add Once it corrects and before it resumes higher, just like 2015 is a far far better time to get started and add significantly to a position in precious metals than they hyper days of 2011 (or 1979) were.
Got long gold at $1183. Looking to hitch a ride to $1205 or so as it completes it's Fib retracement. Not looking for or expecting anything beyond $1205 at this time.
Going along with my call from prior to the fed announcement, it was a good idea to get long stocks after the news came out, and is still a good move. SP500 is probably going to 2250.
<< <i>This is a chart of the biotech index ($BTK) vs the SP-500 for the last 20 years. Biotech has outperformed by 20x since 1998. WOW!!! Never underestimate the power of a mania but expect reversion to mean.
>>
The ratio closed today at 1.91--down 5% since last week.
<< <i>Got long gold at $1183. Looking to hitch a ride to $1205 or so as it completes it's Fib retracement. Not looking for or expecting anything beyond $1205 at this time.
Going along with my call from prior to the fed announcement, it was a good idea to get long stocks after the news came out, and is still a good move. SP500 is probably going to 2250. >>
Took a while but I closed out my gold position for a nice $22 gain. I may be a bit early, there could be some upside remaining in gold but I'll have to wait and see. Guess I wasn't exactly right on my stock prediction, good thing I didn't trade it.
Metals are off their lows but mixed, stocks are off their highs but mixed, real estate is mixed, bonds high and mixed, interest rates off their lows and mixed, inflation data is mixed
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I'd LIKE to find it interesting, but unfortunately do not seem to understand the units of measure of either the X or Y axis. Without additional words from you or someone who can explain the point of this graph, not very interesting, sorry.
Maybe you will reply that I'm not smart enough to understand, or too naive to believe the point, will be in denial of the obvious, but I hope not. That also would not be very interesting.
<< <i>Maybe you will reply that I'm not smart enough to understand, or too naive to believe the point, will be in denial of the obvious, but I hope not. That also would not be very interesting. Lookin to learn >>
You're not smart enough, neither am I. I believe the bottom line is dates. I just liked it cause of the Christmas colors. I think it's telling us that gold is keeping pace with rising food prices.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Got long gold again at $1185. I expect gold to hold this retracement and work its way back up for another $20 gain. If it fails to hold though I'm bailing quickly.
<< <i>Got long gold again at $1185. I expect gold to hold this retracement and work its way back up for another $20 gain. If it fails to hold though I'm bailing quickly. >>
Gotta hand it to you PC, I would never consider trading a stock from 11 7/8 to 12. If you can do it, kudos to you.
<< <i>Got long gold again at $1185. I expect gold to hold this retracement and work its way back up for another $20 gain. If it fails to hold though I'm bailing quickly. >>
Gotta hand it to you PC, I would never consider trading a stock from 11 7/8 to 12. If you can do it, kudos to you. >>
Well, I'm not sure there is a direct comparison. A $20 move will make me $2000/contract, so any time I can predict even a $5, $10, $20 move it's worth it. Since these retracements are fairly predictable it is worth doing, and in this case, the downside is limited since a breakdown from here will be pretty obvious.
<< <i>Got long gold again at $1185. I expect gold to hold this retracement and work its way back up for another $20 gain. If it fails to hold though I'm bailing quickly. >>
Gotta hand it to you PC, I would never consider trading a stock from 11 7/8 to 12. If you can do it, kudos to you. >>
Well, I'm not sure there is a direct comparison. A $20 move will make me $2000/contract, so any time I can predict even a $5, $10, $20 move it's worth it. Since these retracements are fairly predictable it is worth doing, and in this case, the downside is limited since a breakdown from here will be pretty obvious. >>
But a $100 move would make $10,000. So why not focus on the bigger trades instead of being whipsawed by small moves. Those small trades are not as predictable as you might think.
I might trade a stock from 12 to 13 and I might trade gold from 1200-1300. But im not going to trade to trade for fractions. For me, the reward must be equal to 3x the risk. If im going to trade for $20 I must be prepared to take $7 losses. Gold moves $7 because someone sneezes and with allergy season fast approaching, the risk/reward profile is not favorable, IMO. And especially so if one has another career that occupies time.
<< <i>But a $100 move would make $10,000. So why not focus on the bigger trades instead of being whipsawed by small moves. Those small trades are not as predictable as you might think.
I might trade a stock from 12 to 13 and I might trade gold from 1200-1300. But im not going to trade to trade for fractions. For me, the reward must be equal to 3x the risk. If im going to trade for $20 I must be prepared to take $7 losses. Gold moves $7 because someone sneezes and with allergy season fast approaching, the risk/reward profile is not favorable, IMO. And especially so if one has another career that occupies time. >>
Because I do not see any $100 moves in the future, but I see what is likely a very solid $20 move, and this is a low-risk setup because I am merely trading a highly reliable retracement/consolidation move. A lot of these moves can be played with very tight stop losses. They are more predictable than you think.
I don't know why you think I'm trading for fractions. A $20 move will make me about 40% which is nothing to sneeze at. For me, anyway.
The more times you walk in a minefield, the greater the chance you have of getting blown up. Just saying from experience. >>
Futures certainly aren't for everyone.
I was thinking about this trade: Long crude oil option for Dec 2018 delivery at $100/bbl are "only" ~$2.00 if you can get one. Volume is really thin. A current at-the-money call is going for around $9-10. I think crude back to or over $100 in the next 3 years is inevitable. Sounds pretty low-risk/big-reward to me.
<< <i>Oil will NOT be over $100 in 3 years. Put me on record. >>
And put me in the opposing column. While oil supply/demand may not drastically change, the dollar will not hold it's purchasing power.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Now I'm out (@1206, 2.5 from the peak (so far)). This move may have more in it so I'll have to wait and see if I want to get back in. If the stock market can't hold - and it's looking interesting - I think it could push gold higher.
Comments
<< <i>Apathy here doesn't equate to apathy everywhere else. Times change. The 3 PM blogs I visit daily are quite active, as much now as in 2011. And there are certainly as many bears as there are bulls. >>
Well maybe im wrong....the PM market has further to drop or longer to stagnate then.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Yup, gotta like the apathy RedTiger. >>
As I have explained it's not apathy... at least with me. But I will point out that you haven't been posting any trades either. WHERE ARE YOUR TRADES? Are you apathetic or just not posting your trades?
I haven't seen any good tradeable setups since my posts in January. I think people see that the stock market is far overbought and gold & silver are oversold. The problem is that I'm not seeing any reversals (even temporary) coming with any certainty, but I'm also loathe to buy (non-PM) stocks in this overbought market and also loathe to short PM stocks or PMs in this oversold condition, or go long on the USD even though these trends could continue which is amazing by historical standards.
The next 2 weeks look interesting for the markets as I think we'll see spikes in volatility. Stocks are in a window where it could go either way after the retracement of the recent ~90 point drop for the SP500, and gold is due for a bounce also, but I'm not see anything certain enough to make a call.
I think gold has held up remarkably well despite the rise in the dollar. I think the Fed is going to have to do something to "sabotage" the dollar's strength. The situation with the rising dollar and all othercurrencies plummeting is not a situation that can be allowed to persist, in my opinion.
For those who are playing the gold vs silver ratio game it looks to me like a good time to convert gold to silver as I think it may outperform gold if/when PMs take off again.
Stocks are tired, especially biotech which is getting a bit parabolic. There will be a very nice opportunity for a short here in the month or two (maybe even tomorrow). Oil will be another great trade as will PMs.
Relatively gold did ok vs the dollar, I agree. The FED can do virtually nothing to weaken the dollar except cut rates to negative, although even this may be muted as the USA still has better prospects than any other country, and hence the dollar remains a better relative value. I also think silver has a slight relative value advantage over gold which is which is 70% of my PM purchases in the last 3 months have been silver.
For over a decade the rest of the world has been quite expensive for Americans. Now its our decade to take advantage of the fruits of the world.
The rising dollar is really not that big a deal. Our largest trading partner, China, has a currency that is mostly pegged to the dollar so any effects are muted. You think China and Japan are unhappy they own US debt? I bet Russia wishes it had more.
BTW--Apathy is not bad. In fact, I like it much better than greed or fear. Much easier to trade.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Mostly apathetic. Many more timely trading opportunities. I did a long trade on oil in early Feb. I dont trade everyday and am in cash in trading accounts usually about 70% of the time. I take a sizeable position (20-30%) and hold for a day to a month. A dozen or so 10% trades in a year nets out to 20-30% annually. Im happy with that.
Stocks are tired, especially biotech which is getting a bit parabolic. There will be a very nice opportunity for a short here in the month or two (maybe even tomorrow). Oil will be another great trade as will PMs.
Relatively gold did ok vs the dollar, I agree. The FED can do virtually nothing to weaken the dollar except cut rates to negative, although even this may be muted as the USA still has better prospects than any other country, and hence the dollar remains a better relative value. I also think silver has a slight relative value advantage over gold which is which is 70% of my PM purchases in the last 3 months have been silver.
For over a decade the rest of the world has been quite expensive for Americans. Now its our decade to take advantage of the fruits of the world.
The rising dollar is really not that big a deal. Our largest trading partner, China, has a currency that is mostly pegged to the dollar so any effects are muted. You think China and Japan are unhappy they own US debt? I bet Russia wishes it had more.
BTW--Apathy is not bad. In fact, I like it much better than greed or fear. Much easier to trade. >>
I agree that options are limited for the fed to weaken the dollar. Any QE move would contradict their message about the strong economy and threat of raising rates. Lowering rates would have muted effect I agree and again would contradict their mantra for the past couple of years. Raising rates isn't an option because it will strengthen the dollar further. But I think the strong dollar hurts more than you say. It will be very tough for Boeing to sell aircraft and for other companies to sell their big ticket items. It also works against all of the big companies with large holdings of other currencies outside of the US. In fact, we might start seeing this be a major drag on earnings for the multinationals. I agree the strengthening dollar makes US debt more attractive to foreigners and foreign holders of US debt are quite happy with how the currency play worked out for them.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I was hoping some of you with a hell of a lot more economic knowledge could give an analysis on Palladium.
I would find it very informative to compare what I think (which is very basic) to possible future expectations as the metal relates to all niches it fills be it investment, industrial, jewelry, etc..
The yen is going to continue losing value, this will not be a good year for the yen.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I don't think looking for a correlation between a currency and gold is valid.
The yen is going to continue losing value, this will not be a good year for the yen. >>
Interesting that it has been so highly correlated, no?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>I don't think looking for a correlation between a currency and gold is valid.
The yen is going to continue losing value, this will not be a good year for the yen. >>
Interesting that it has been so highly correlated, no? >>
Interesting yes. Meaningful? I'm not sure.
Stocks (SP500) has completed its retracement of the last pullback. This may be a good spot to get short stocks. (ES currently at ~2070).
More interesting links and info:
Housing Starts Collapse Most In 8 Years To 18 Month Lows
My guess is that the fed would like to cool down the dollar strength (if possible) and attempt to get a negative market reaction, but I'd wait to see before jumping on. The market is ripe for a nice slice. A negative stock market reaction should allow gold to rebound $30-40 or so. I guess we'll find out...
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
----------------------------
Updates for July 3rd 2015:
20 year chart of UST 10 yr / 2 yr yield ratio
My thoughts of silver? If you follow Radomski, Rambus, and the bulk of them, silver is headed to the basement because their H&S patterns or Elliot Wave counts them so. Silver is currently sitting on support generated from 2006-2009. A move below that level invites $10 or even $7.50 before next major support kicks in. That's the story line most are taking. And that's based on their beliefs that the USDollar is headed to 110-120 and GSR to 80-100. Like Noonan says, only fools can predict how the current silver consolidation period is going to break (up or down). The vast majority say down. Silver futures positioning suggests down with both commercials and hedge funds (Managed Money) loaded with shorts. Same for gold where MM is carrying a near record position in gross gold shorts (89K the previous week). Sentiment in both gold and silver is far from previous lows so it could be washed out much further.
Silver 20 yr chart
The GSR weekly chart suggests another 1-2 months is needed before the next high should occur. At the same time, the GSR daily chart looks stalled at the upper Bollinger Band following a lengthy 30-32 day rally. That's very LONG for any rally. GDX declined for 34 days into Thursday's new low (also very long for a GDX drop....though declines of 45-54 days have occurred twice before in the past couple of years). Most declines have ended in 18-30 days. I think GSR has gone too far for too long and needs a pull back. Of course that doesn't mean the banks can't continue to pile on silver derivatives to get the direction they want. A declining GSR could also come about with gold falling more than silver. The monthly GSR looks hellish. It has the potential to flip the 5-6 year IH&S around to the 110+ level. Of course, that runs into some cyclic problems. GSR over the past 20 years has sustained strong peaks in the 5-1/2 to 6-1/2 year range. Well, it's now already at the 6-3/4 year point with the peak having been 7 months ago....right on schedule. But if we look at the long 5 yr 3 month rise from 1998-2003, the current 4 year rise could reasonably continue into summer 2016.
GSR daily
The July 4th holiday period often results in turns for the PM's. Last week got us some scorching lows in the miners. HUI took out the 2008 low. GDX not quite there yet. I pay attention to Fib day counts in GDX at 21, 34, 55, and 89 days. The 55 day count was working like a champ for turns from Dec 2013 into early 2015. So Thursday's low on day 34, coinciding with a month/quarter end, a full moon, NFP report, Greece & Puerto Rico debt tensions, and a host of other things, all seems to be a worthy collection to offer up at least a brief turn. Based on the awful chart patterns it is hard not to say that the PM sector will crash one more time into $1040 gold and $12 silver. The chart patterns all but "guarantee" it. And that's what bothers me. Maybe that final crash won't come until after this summer. Everyone expects it now though. Hedge funds are loaded up with shorts much like they were for the final crash of 2014.
Silver back to the lower weekly BB
Silver and GDX have made usual round trip back to the other BB. 2 years of doing that. The weekly silver chart oscillators do show some promise. The daily oscillators look even better with some +divergence. Price has held at the lower price channel 3X now. Sugar has been on the rise as of late (supportive of silver imo). Silver seems to more predictive of GDX movements as of late than gold has. Nugt/Dust ratio volume has provided clues at times. In the last 3 big declines (Nov, Dec, March) we saw epic volume on one day with multiple days of very large volume. This past week we got the first epic day of volume followed by 4 strong down days. Quite similar to the Nov and Dec bottomings. Double bottoms in the stoch and aroon resetting again are all promising signs for nugt/dust ratio. I'd sort of agree with derryb here that silver may surprise with a bounce. I still won't rule out an April-June 2013 type slide where oscillators hit very low levels, only to stay there and grind lower for 2 months. The banks and hedge funds that push the paper silver and gold futures control the price. Where they want to send it, is where it goes.
silver daily
Nugt to Dust ratio
cohodk Thank you for that.
I might have to go meet my buyer sooner than later for the Gold. Will stop buying Palladium for a while it seems.
<< <i>Wow!
cohodk Thank you for that.
I might have to go meet my buyer sooner than later for the Gold. Will stop buying Palladium for a while it seems. >>
Palladium is still in an uptrend so you must respect that. It is also about the only commodity that is not trading 30-70% below its peak.
From an investor standpoint I see absolutely no reason to own palladium. Technically I have no idea the upside, but I do understand the downside.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Gotta stay 1 min ahead of the crowd.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>This is a chart of the biotech index ($BTK) vs the SP-500 for the last 20 years. Biotech has outperformed by 20x since 1998. WOW!!! Never underestimate the power of a mania but expect reversion to mean.
Looks like the same shape chart of historical and projected national debt and unfunded medicare and other rising elderly care expenses, characteristics of an aging population bulge
even so, the biotech sector bull market rally certainly looks extended and ripe for a fall, and it's been a good time to take profits for those who have been invested for that ride, while still remaining some allocated for future growth, even if bumpy as it has been periodically. This sector has a high beta or volatility rating which means bigger gains when good and bigger losses when bad. Just like the metals and especially the miners and especially junior miners and the exploratory industry.
For those who are new to investing in the biotech industry, this is probably a terrible time to establish a large position all of a sudden. Better to start small and add Once it corrects and before it resumes higher, just like 2015 is a far far better time to get started and add significantly to a position in precious metals than they hyper days of 2011 (or 1979) were.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Going along with my call from prior to the fed announcement, it was a good idea to get long stocks after the news came out, and is still a good move. SP500 is probably going to 2250.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>This is a chart of the biotech index ($BTK) vs the SP-500 for the last 20 years. Biotech has outperformed by 20x since 1998. WOW!!! Never underestimate the power of a mania but expect reversion to mean.
The ratio closed today at 1.91--down 5% since last week.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I think alot of it is steamed out.
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
<< <i>Got long gold at $1183. Looking to hitch a ride to $1205 or so as it completes it's Fib retracement. Not looking for or expecting anything beyond $1205 at this time.
Going along with my call from prior to the fed announcement, it was a good idea to get long stocks after the news came out, and is still a good move. SP500 is probably going to 2250. >>
Took a while but I closed out my gold position for a nice $22 gain. I may be a bit early, there could be some upside remaining in gold but I'll have to wait and see.
Guess I wasn't exactly right on my stock prediction, good thing I didn't trade it.
<< <i>Where we headed y'all?
I think alot of it is steamed out. >>
Metals are off their lows but mixed, stocks are off their highs but mixed, real estate is mixed, bonds high and mixed, interest rates off their lows and mixed, inflation data is mixed
no wonder so many people are all mixed up
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Interesting chart:
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>"but you can't eat gold. . ."
Interesting chart:
I'd LIKE to find it interesting, but unfortunately do not seem to understand the units of measure of either the X or Y axis.
Without additional words from you or someone who can explain the point of this graph, not very interesting, sorry.
Maybe you will reply that I'm not smart enough to understand, or too naive to believe the point, will be in denial of the obvious, but I hope not. That also would not be very interesting.
Lookin to learn
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I kinda see Christmas in the chart.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Maybe you will reply that I'm not smart enough to understand, or too naive to believe the point, will be in denial of the obvious, but I hope not. That also would not be very interesting. Lookin to learn
You're not smart enough, neither am I. I believe the bottom line is dates. I just liked it cause of the Christmas colors. I think it's telling us that gold is keeping pace with rising food prices.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Got long gold again at $1185. I expect gold to hold this retracement and work its way back up for another $20 gain. If it fails to hold though I'm bailing quickly. >>
Gotta hand it to you PC, I would never consider trading a stock from 11 7/8 to 12. If you can do it, kudos to you.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>Got long gold again at $1185. I expect gold to hold this retracement and work its way back up for another $20 gain. If it fails to hold though I'm bailing quickly. >>
Gotta hand it to you PC, I would never consider trading a stock from 11 7/8 to 12. If you can do it, kudos to you. >>
Well, I'm not sure there is a direct comparison. A $20 move will make me $2000/contract, so any time I can predict even a $5, $10, $20 move it's worth it. Since these retracements are fairly predictable it is worth doing, and in this case, the downside is limited since a breakdown from here will be pretty obvious.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Got long gold again at $1185. I expect gold to hold this retracement and work its way back up for another $20 gain. If it fails to hold though I'm bailing quickly. >>
Gotta hand it to you PC, I would never consider trading a stock from 11 7/8 to 12. If you can do it, kudos to you. >>
Well, I'm not sure there is a direct comparison. A $20 move will make me $2000/contract, so any time I can predict even a $5, $10, $20 move it's worth it. Since these retracements are fairly predictable it is worth doing, and in this case, the downside is limited since a breakdown from here will be pretty obvious. >>
But a $100 move would make $10,000. So why not focus on the bigger trades instead of being whipsawed by small moves. Those small trades are not as predictable as you might think.
I might trade a stock from 12 to 13 and I might trade gold from 1200-1300. But im not going to trade to trade for fractions. For me, the reward must be equal to 3x the risk. If im going to trade for $20 I must be prepared to take $7 losses. Gold moves $7 because someone sneezes and with allergy season fast approaching, the risk/reward profile is not favorable, IMO. And especially so if one has another career that occupies time.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
<< <i>But a $100 move would make $10,000. So why not focus on the bigger trades instead of being whipsawed by small moves. Those small trades are not as predictable as you might think.
I might trade a stock from 12 to 13 and I might trade gold from 1200-1300. But im not going to trade to trade for fractions. For me, the reward must be equal to 3x the risk. If im going to trade for $20 I must be prepared to take $7 losses. Gold moves $7 because someone sneezes and with allergy season fast approaching, the risk/reward profile is not favorable, IMO. And especially so if one has another career that occupies time. >>
Because I do not see any $100 moves in the future, but I see what is likely a very solid $20 move, and this is a low-risk setup because I am merely trading a highly reliable retracement/consolidation move. A lot of these moves can be played with very tight stop losses. They are more predictable than you think.
I don't know why you think I'm trading for fractions. A $20 move will make me about 40% which is nothing to sneeze at. For me, anyway.
The more times you walk in a minefield, the greater the chance you have of getting blown up. Just saying from experience.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Or a 40% loss.
The more times you walk in a minefield, the greater the chance you have of getting blown up. Just saying from experience. >>
Futures certainly aren't for everyone.
I was thinking about this trade: Long crude oil option for Dec 2018 delivery at $100/bbl are "only" ~$2.00 if you can get one. Volume is really thin.
A current at-the-money call is going for around $9-10.
I think crude back to or over $100 in the next 3 years is inevitable. Sounds pretty low-risk/big-reward to me.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Oil will NOT be over $100 in 3 years. Put me on record. >>
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Oil will NOT be over $100 in 3 years. Put me on record. >>
And put me in the opposing column. While oil supply/demand may not drastically change, the dollar will not hold it's purchasing power.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Oil will NOT be over $100 in 3 years. Put me on record. >>
I think the odds are great and getting 4 to 1 on this bet is very attractive.
<< <i>Way to go PC. Did you take it? >>
Not yet. I'm expecting 1206-1207. Almost there.
I also initiated a short SP500 position 2 days ago which I added to today. I think this could turn out to be a much bigger decline.