Was the Coin Market Up, Down, or Flat on Average in 2014?

C0inCollect0r

Hi folks,

I of course realize this is a general question and different areas of the market have behaved differently to some degree. That being said, on average, do you feel the classic coin market has risen, fallen, or remained roughly flat overall for 2014?

The PCGS 3000 Price index would seem to indicate a modest gain over the course of the year from a "big picture" perspective, but that is of course one metric. Other dealers have mentioned that they feel prices have fallen - some have said 10-15% on average for typical coins.

Any thoughts would be interesting to hear.

Sonorandesertrat

Averaging all of the niche markets, the coin market fell. Remember, bullion gold and silver have fallen (taking generic gold in particular down), and prices for 'meh' coins are continuing to retreat.

DeepCoin

The coins market is not homogeneous. The market for bullion I would exclude, but then you get to collectors of things like GSE and ASEs. There is the high end served by Legend and others who play in the big ticket sandbox and also the dealers who make a market in coins 200 - 5000 as their primary niche and then there are smaller dealers who sell mostly coins under 500. All different market segments, but I would see them as different markets.

Its kind of like saying are clothing sellers doing well. Do you mean Walmart, Target, Gap, or the high end designers or the mid grade purveyors of clothing? Sell the same product, but at vastly different prices. Saks Fifth Avenue is not in the same market as Kohls.

I guess what I am trying to say is there are different answers depending upon market segment and I did not even mention B & M and auction houses.

Timbuk3

For the most part, coins did take a
relatively substantial drop in prices
in 2014. However, as noted in the
previous threads, there are many
variables to consider when making
a determination.

GoldenEyeNumismatics

down. A lot of stuff got really hammered.

291fifth

Liquidity seems to have declined for most "ordinary" collectibles including coins. Exceptional items still do well but exceptional items are just that, exceptional, and make up only a small percentage of the total market.

The booming stock market has undoubtedly drawn off a good percentage of money that would have been spent on coins by the more investment minded participants in the coin market.

The poor performance of precious metals has had a negative effect on the market as well as those involved in this portion of the market feel less wealthy than they did in the recent past. Some in this area continue to search for the bottom while others don't have the money left to continue at all.

The aging of the coin collector population is also having a negative effect.

mozin

Bust series coins in AU or better are definitely up for 2014. No question about it.

coinkat

Too broad of a question-

Bullion related items- down

As to specific series, it depends on the series.

World coins - depends on the country and series as well.

Sorry that this answer is not helpful, but you may want to ask a more specific question to get opinions that are more useful.

Boosibri

Just like all markets, sectors were up and sectors were down. In aggregate it seems like things were modestly down. That said it also seems like there is continued bifurcation of the markets with PQ coins accelerating and marginal coins falling.

I think it will be interesting to follow MS Seated type in 2015 and 2016 with Gardner out of the equation. He seemed to be the driving force in those series in top grades and condition.

Rare gold did well in 2014 and should continue to do well in 2015. PCGS CAC coins were very strong, PCGS/NGC coins which had any sort of issue or were just OK were tough sells. Overgraded but original coins in NGC holders actually did OK as the wave or originality seeking collectors buy, down cross and CAC these coins and can still make money.

There was very little Early Gold available this year that had any semblance of original surfaces. With the strong gains experienced over the last few years one may take it that these are now pausing and taking a step back. I would argue that if nice pieces were available that there would be strong demand.

In the area that I specifically follow, Liberty $5s, Dahlonega issues were really unavailable in collectors grades in 2014 and were strong when offered, Charlotte continued to be weak, New Orleans is picking up and San Francisco was red hot. Carson City continued to be fully valued but held on to those levels and Philly gold was mixed, rare issues picked up tons of momentum (Civil War dates and a few others) while common dates moved with the price of gold. Under pinning everything is the continued focus on original, dirty gold, and PCGS CAC certification.

winky

All I can say is: don't sell your Roosies yet or you will faint. Roosevelt dimes aren't made for making money, just having fun trying to collect all 600 different variety's. I only have 200 more to go!!!!!!!!

WaterSport

Well my over all non verified gut opinion is that it is down, with few exceptions, but no one wants to admit it. I expect the same trend to continue or 2013. Its adjustment time.

WS

BillJones

I'd say it was mixed.

For average material and even better than average material, the market was slow with prices headed downward.

For really nice stuff the market is tougher than ever with prices going high and not much to buy. It looks like "the upper crust" is supporting what coin market here is.

paesan

As a collector, I'd say it's a happy time to be buying quality coins.

Paesan

roadrunner

Dealers are also collectors and speculators who help keep the market boosted. They certainly haven't been buying as robustly as they were from 2004-2012. That can be blamed on liquidity drying up from both the precious metals market tanking.... and stock prices booming. 80-90% of the overall market is a bit down in 2014, especially as it concerns liquidity. Price guides probably haven't been adjusted to account for these lower prices.

The PCGS 3000 is only up around 0.3% in 2014...pretty much flat. Of more importance is that the rarities and key date index is actually down for 2014. It's up 28X since 1970. It peaked at 30X in 2008. It's not had a significant correction since since 1990-1995 when it corrected 27%. In 1980-1982 it corrected 40%.

Key dates and rarities index

Cougar1978

My Coin Market Composite based on what I track fell 8.9% YTD. This would be a balanced portfolio of ASE, AGE, Dollars (Generic M65), Commems (50 pc set MS65) , and Walkers (short set)

Silver 16.13 19.44 1/1/2014 (3.31) SILV -17.0%
Gold 1,195.10 1,218.30 1/1/2014 (23.20) GOLD -1.9%
Morgan MS65 Gen 140.00 165.00 2/21/2014 (25.00) MORG -15.2%
Peace MS65 Gen 120.00 132.00 2/21/2014 (12.00) PEACE -9.1%
Com 50 pc MS65 34,395.00 35,695.00 2/21/2014 (1,300.00) COM -3.6%
Walkers SS MS65 3,305.00 3,547.00 5/14/2014 (242.00) WLH -6.8%
Com Dol WLH CDW -8.7%

The bullion parameters are off Kitco and the numismatic parameters are extruded from the CDN.

It did not load my excel sheet like I wanted but Silver was -17.0%, Gold -1.9% Generic Morgans MS65 -15.2%, Generic Peace Dollars -9.1%, COmmem 50pc set MS65 -3.6%, Walker Short Set MS65 -6.8% and the average for all -8.7% 2014 ytd.


I track coins which I typically inventory and most collectors can afford. I also do World and US Currency. I don't normally do big ticket coins unless AGE, AGB, USGTC, World Gold. My parameter for big ticket is anything over $300. Coins are in competetion with other venues for entertainment, relaxation, etc plus many people walking to a show probably don't have more than $300 in their pocket if that much. My ebay store turns items under $150 quicker than big ticket items. I am not an investor in the 5 figure "esoteric" coins. I do have a stock market portfolio in the six figure range in addition to three real estate properties. For my rare coin business my goal is buy low / sell high. I prefer items I can turn quickly with at least a 30% margin (which is an industry norm, based on the research I have done. This can vary for common items vs rare in addition to big ticket items low end vs high end). My inventory investment increased 32.5% for 2014. Composite inventory market gain (Mkt Val vs Cost to date) is 107.6%.

For maximum return I recommend PCGS coins along with a subscription to coin facts. You should get on the submission band wagon as well and start enjoying that part of the hobby.

Wabbit2313

She was barbequed.

C0inCollect0r

Thanks for the replies everyone. In my experience, I tend to feel there was a modest downturn in the overall classic market, independent of bullion. I would have guessed 5-10% on a large portion of the classic market for standard coins.

TwoSides2aCoin

Most of my friends are paying less for gas. They're still buying cars , phones and computers. Ah, but none of them are buying coins ( I have a lot of friends, just hardly any that are "into coins") . I remember it was like this in the 60's and 70's. I left coins then and came back in 2,000. I see a lot of my friends are paying a lot more for gas, and cars, phones and computing in 2014. Even more are sinking their MONEY into stocks, bonds, treasuries, houses, insurance, taxes and medical bills. So in this regard, the past year flew by and I sold more and bought more coins. The prices ? They are what they are. And there's no trade without FMV.

I don't even get to collect for the past 5 years but what I would collect always goes for more than I pay for it, with the exception of bullion related items.

edit to add: "You're not hearing. You're reading"
Am a stickler with linguistics. I know it's anal. … but there's still NO TIME like the present.
Now is always a good time to start into a nice hobby, barring the people who are not friends to it.

stockergreen

Down.It's a buyers market right now