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Observation of mine
jdimmick
Posts: 9,775 ✭✭✭✭✭
I can see over the next year or two, that somebody with some extra cash who can and doesn't need to sell or flip can sit back and catch bargains from sellers who need to sell or get out of coins in a hurry.
I believe its coming, I can already see it happening !
I believe its coming, I can already see it happening !
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<< <i>I can see over the next year or two, that somebody with some extra cash who can and doesn't need to sell or flip can sit back and catch bargains from sellers who need to sell or get out of coins in a hurry.
I believe its coming, I can already see it happening ! >>
This has been the case since the mid-1800s.
<< <i>I guess the theory of buying low and selling high also applies to rare coins? Is this the time to buy low? Knowing those times make $. >>
That is the question. We tend to expect price dips to recover. Going back 50 years, classic coin prices have risen exponentially, well above the rate of inflation in many cases. Very difficult to assign a value to a rare coin as we do not have a comparable cost of manufacturing basis to go by as we do with an ounce of gold or a new 2000 foot home.
<< <i>
I believe its coming, I can already see it happening ! >>
Are you practicing what you are prophesying?
"If I say something in the woods and my wife isn't there to hear it.....am I still wrong?"
My Washington Quarter Registry set...in progress
Middle of the road quality coins will languish even for key and semi key dates. Even at lower prices I don't think that these are bargains long term.
Latin American Collection
1. I am in general agreement with what Boosibri wrote.
2. Going back 50 years takes one back to the era before investor dollars began to really impact the market for numismatic collectibles. This is not a good basis upon which to make any prediction about the future.
3. The recession did not impact the various sectors of the numismatic market uniformly. Well-off collectors and investors continued to make purchases, and there were relatively few 'forced' sales. Looking around in my own town (Tucson), I thought that lots of nice coins would appear in local shops as a result of locals having to sell to raise cash. This didn't happen---what appeared in local inventories was more bullion-related material, low-end coins, modern mint products, etc. Nice coins stayed in strong hands.
4. The appearance of CAC and new grade increments (+ grades) has further widened the gap between A coins and C coins for a given grade.
5. Nobody wants to 'overpay.' However, being an overly price-conscious buyer likely means sacrificing quality. Unless a collector has a boatload of free time to walk aisles, kick tires, etc., there will be no cherry picks, no free lunch. From a strictly investment point of view, the best purchases I have made since my return to the hobby in 2007 were eye-appealing coins that I paid 'too much' for.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
<< <i>Middle of the road quality coins will languish even for key and semi key dates. Even at lower prices I don't think that these are bargains long term. >>
That's what I was thinking...from my own stock market experience, I'm notorious for catching falling knives....
I also don't think the average collector schmo is going to be privy to any great deals, unless something miraculously falls through the cracks at auction. Most of the really nice coins are owned by savvy collectors or dealers, who have ready access to CCE, Greysheet, auction archives, etc. Their coins will likely be peddled directly to the major dealers like Legend, Harry Laibstain, and their ilk, or will be featured in major auctions with reserves. Dealers who 'need to get out' of average coins are seen lined up at Coleman Foster's and Larry Lee's tables at all the larger shows.
And so many people eventually "give it up" and a few "give it a try". Then, eventually over the years, many tire of it, and collections come pouring in again, and again. And if a man really understands history, … well , it's
"IN THE MAKING".
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
<< <i>I can see over the next year or two, that somebody with some extra cash who can and doesn't need to sell or flip can sit back and catch bargains from sellers who need to sell or get out of coins in a hurry.
I believe its coming, I can already see it happening ! >>
I agree with Jim. Something will come in the next 1-2 years. And there will be great deals. I recall the 1990-1993 coin bust where I bought a lot of great deals for 50% or even 30% of what they sold for in 1990. What I didn't see coming was the down cycle dragging on into 1995-1997 (60-80% haircut on many coins). All those bargains by 1993 were burials by 1996 as the market churned considerably lower. It probably took until 2006 before some of those "great buys" from 1993 turned into small profits. One of my "best" buys from that period was a monster MS67 no drapery half dime at $9K. I saw that drop to $4K by 1997. It was arguably worth $12K by 2006-2008. It was later upgraded to MS68 (after I had tried 3X) and recently fetched $16K in the Gardner sale. That coin was worth around $22K in 1989. This was not an isolated example...but a decent guide on how the general high end type coin market fared from 1989-2008. Relatively few of the best gem seated coins I sold into the 1989 market have reached those same levels today.
The coin market is usually only as good as the stock market. Every major coin bust of the past 50 years has aligned pretty well with a stock market bust. With each successive coin peak, less coins are being brought along to the next peak. In 1980 everything was carried along. In the 1989 peak only choice and gem coins were carried along. The 2008 peak left behind many gem coins from the earlier peaks (gem silver dollars and commems, gem type, gem 20th century registry set dates, etc.). This current peak off the 2009 bottom has left behind most everything except original and top notch circ collector coins and the top 1-10% of the choice and gem market (ie coins that Legend, Pinnacle, and others like to play with). A large % of this current market is well under the 2008 and 1990 peaks. A surprising % of the market is still under the 1980 peaks, a lot of that due to rampant over-grading. When liquidity leaves the stock market it's going to be tough on coins. The only way to skirt that is if another resurrection in the price of precious metals occurs to rescue 80-90% of the coin market. That may or may not happen.
The coin market is very cyclic. And a large % of big collectors and big investors seem to exit as peaks approach. You saw that from 2006-summer 2008, some getting out a bit early as real estate peaked in 2006-2007. Coins have done well in a booming real estate cycle from 1955-2007. That kind of support is not really there now and won't be there again for another 15-20 years. It takes time to cleanse out a 52 year up cycle....not just a mere 7 years. There will be bright spots along the way and local markets that buck the trend. For now, another 1-2 years of strength in this RE counter-trend bounce, and then it's hard down for 15 years as baby boomers continue to exit the markets. The top 5-10% of collector and investor coins can probably weather it. But note that "everything" was sold off in the 1990-1993 coin bust with some rarities losing money for the first time ever....some as much as 50%. It's a fallacy to assume rarities or the "best " coins are exempt. Everyone has said for decades that key collector dates never go down. Well, they got pushed up so far into 2008 that many have gone down. When dealers aren't willing to stock a half dozen examples each, they have to go somewhere for a price. Nothing is immune from a sharp correction. Supply and demand will ultimately figure it out.
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