So really though, what happened this weekend?
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morbidsteve
Posts: 572 ✭✭✭
I was amazed when I saw silver in the $15s on Saturday, and then in the $14s on Sunday. Can't come to figure out what the real deal was. I know there was some speculation with regards to the Switzerland Gold standard, but why did the affect happen as it did? Everyone knew that they weren't going to pass the law... I'm confused.
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You're almost $1 per oz up already as of writing this. If it was worth doing depending on how many oz's it is, Id' seriously be considering locking in a nice profit, even if someone only pays you Spot + .50, you're still in the drivers seat.
<< <i>Yea, me too. Too bad I went all in at $15.54 (not really all in, but no more liquid cash) >>
It ain't over until the "PM fat lady sings," and she's just beginning to warm up. Good luck.
<< <i>If it heads towards 1160 again soon, it'll blow through 1150 like a hot knife through butter >>
Isn't what they said from Friday through early Monday morning? Why would it matter more the next time if it blew back from $1140 even stronger and higher than it did from $1130?
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Other factors in play that trump the bogus "red herring" Swiss referendum vote: (buy the rumor - sell the news - even if it was already baked into the price on Friday).
1. India got rid of its onerous 80-20 import/export rule (linked below).
2. Gold may be sniffing out an intermediate cycle top in the dollar (and gold to silver ratio). A 6 month rally coming to and end could easily flip gold. Time will tell.
3. Stock market potentially losing steam again after a monumental 6 week rally where it never pulled back for more than 1 day. Rest time?
4. Gold forward rates at extremes not seen since 1998-2001 (1 month rate currently at -0.58%). This action typically occurs near major multi-year bottoms (ie 6-8 years). This rate has gone slightly below 1% in prior bottoms so it can go further. In 2008 it only made it to -0.15% as was negative for only a few days. These rates have now been negative for much of the past 18 months....something possibly never seen before. This signifies major stress on the credit/banking systems. Someone is willing to "pay" gold holders a premium just to lease gold. The gold physical market seems to be suggesting there are holes in the paper gold markets. Who woulda thunk it?
The last 6 Decembers (at least until mid-month in some cases) have been bearish for gold. Would be an abrupt change if that streak ended in 2014. A tough December could still be out there.
India dumps 80-20 import - export rule
The (Indian) government increased import taxes three times in 2013 to 10 percent and introduced the 80:20 rule. ....none of that was very helpful to gold prices in 2013....which were hammered much of that year.
If.... If.
<< <i> So really though, what happened this weekend? >>
India. The Swiss were already baked into the price. Friday's price decline was most likely a "quick" reaction to India's central bank removing gold import/export restrictions on Friday. The quick reaction to an increase in supply/demand from India was corrected by reasonable thinking that this is a good thing for gold. Demand/supply ratio in India has been and remains the short term driver on gold prices. India has a central banker who thinks independently from an India government that wanted gold restrictions increased. His days are surely numbered.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
But the history is they don't do what they say they're going to do, one way or the other, cut or increase. If you've never trusted anything I've ever said here, make this one excpection please and just go with it as it's in part how I make my living following/tracking this. I can't really say more publicly or my Co. gets squirmy on me...again from personal history.
<< <i>I thought that OPEC deciding on Friday not to cut oil production was a factor too
But the history is they don't do what they say they're going to do, one way or the other, cut or increase. If you've never trusted anything I've ever said here, make this one excpection please and just go with it as it's in part how I make my living following/tracking this. I can't really say more publicly or my Co. gets squirmy on me...again from personal history.
Time will tell I suppose. It always does.
<< <i>I thought that OPEC deciding on Friday not to cut oil production was a factor too
But the history is they don't do what they say they're going to do, one way or the other, cut or increase. If you've never trusted anything I've ever said here, make this one excpection please and just go with it as it's in part how I make my living following/tracking this. I can't really say more publicly or my Co. gets squirmy on me...again from personal history.
quite cryptic with no message. What is the message? OPEC doesn't always do what they say? That's old news.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey