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Is the Coin Business Headed back to a slow period like the 1990's

Cougar1978Cougar1978 Posts: 7,539 ✭✭✭✭✭
Is the Coin Business Headed back to the slow period of the 1990's which came about after the 1989 -90 market crash?

The Nov 28 CDN points out cash flow issues for dealers leading to blowout (forced) sales. All the major areas of the market I track (Bullion, Walkers, Dollars, Commems) are down from the beginning of the year. What I have found is key for me is keeping the fixed costs of the business to a minimum.

There are three types of Coin Markets that have been pointed out in my research: 1. Bullion, Mods, Generic Classic Coins 2. Better Date Coins, Seated, Barber, and Type Material 3. Esoteric super expensive rarities. The lagging general economy and low bullion prices seem to have the most impact on the first two. However, there a lot of things that compete for ones numismatic budget. I believe there are certain hobbies / interests people will spend money on before numismatic collection / investment. The slow periods in Numismatics can be a really good time to buy. I found the 1990's not only a good time to buy and build my business but enabled me to take advantages of investment opportunities I may never see again - World Gold, Quality Large Size Currency which later brought huge gains currency certification (PMG, PCGS) came online; the spike in the gold price to around $2000 (2011) brought huge gains to World Gold. A lackluster market may be harsh to cash flow assuming numismatics is ones only source of income, but buying opportunities are plentiful.
So Cali Area - Coins & Currency

Comments

  • MGLICKERMGLICKER Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭
    I would use extra caution before making a large consignment to anyone. Tough to tell which dealers might be in trouble.
  • Cougar1978Cougar1978 Posts: 7,539 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Good observation. Scary - you do a big consignment then that firm folds. I don't consign material to auctions as I have an ebay store where I am in control of what I sell it for or list it at. At a show there is always pressure to sell at minimum profit (like $5 over cost) in order to compete and have cash flow. However, having a table enables me to control and enjoy my activities at the show better. My advice for a show: If gold is in the tank leave your gold coins in the bank box until the market recovers otherwise there will be people at your table with their greysheets wanting to pick you off. Since I do currency also, it easily fills that void in my cases at a show and I still have to stack it lol.

    Lately I may start material at 5% -10% behind CDN bid in an ebay auction maybe 3 - 6 pieces with the idea one may sell like if I am wanting a little cash flow for hobby related (non numismatic) expenses or something like car modifications / new computer purchase, etc.. Then the unsold pieces are relisted at retail or cost+. On occasion much to my delight some of these may sell at retail in the next couple of weeks. If none of the pieces sell, it tells me most likely people don't have any money (to spend on coins). I refuse to start them at 99c as this is an invitation to disaster.
    So Cali Area - Coins & Currency
  • fishteethfishteeth Posts: 2,236 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I hope so. I am still a younger collector and kind of afraid to buy much at these levels. I figure I will hit my peak for buying coins in 10-15 yrs.
    Hopefully by then all this doom and gloom I read about has occurred and I can buy all kinds of cool coins.
    On the other hand if prices continue to go up, well then there will be more money for really cool fishing trips

  • ElcontadorElcontador Posts: 7,412 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Is the Coin Business Headed back to the slow period of the 1990's which came about after the 1989 -90 market crash?

    The Nov 28 CDN points out cash flow issues for dealers leading to blowout (forced) sales. All the major areas of the market I track (Bullion, Walkers, Dollars, Commems) are down from the beginning of the year. What I have found is key for me is keeping the fixed costs of the business to a minimum.

    There are three types of Coin Markets that have been pointed out in my research: 1. Bullion, Mods, Generic Classic Coins 2. Better Date Coins, Seated, Barber, and Type Material 3. Esoteric super expensive rarities. The lagging general economy and low bullion prices seem to have the most impact on the first two. However, there a lot of things that compete for ones numismatic budget. I believe there are certain hobbies / interests people will spend money on before numismatic collection / investment. The slow periods in Numismatics can be a really good time to buy. I found the 1990's not only a good time to buy and build my business but enabled me to take advantages of investment opportunities I may never see again - World Gold, Quality Large Size Currency which later brought huge gains currency certification (PMG, PCGS) came online; the spike in the gold price to around $2000 (2011) brought huge gains to World Gold. A lackluster market may be harsh to cash flow assuming numismatics is ones only source of income, but buying opportunities are plentiful. >>



    High grade type Barber and Seated type has been flat to declining in price for over a decade, and only a handful of people can afford the super expensive material. Better date and high grade pre 1835 material has been strong for at least the last five years.
    "Vou invadir o Nordeste,
    "Seu cabra da peste,
    "Sou Mangueira......."
  • BaronVonBaughBaronVonBaugh Posts: 1,835 ✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Good observation. Scary - you do a big consignment then that firm folds. I don't consign material to auctions as I have an ebay store where I am in control of what I sell it for or list it at. At a show there is always pressure to sell at minimum profit (like $5 over cost) in order to compete and have cash flow. However, having a table enables me to control and enjoy my activities at the show better. My advice for a show: If gold is in the tank leave your gold coins in the bank box until the market recovers otherwise there will be people at your table with their greysheets wanting to pick you off. Since I do currency also, it easily fills that void in my cases at a show and I still have to stack it lol.

    Lately I may start material at 5% -10% behind CDN bid in an ebay auction maybe 3 - 6 pieces with the idea one may sell like if I am wanting a little cash flow for hobby related (non numismatic) expenses or something like car modifications / new computer purchase, etc.. Then the unsold pieces are relisted at retail or cost+. On occasion much to my delight some of these may sell at retail in the next couple of weeks. If none of the pieces sell, it tells me most likely people don't have any money (to spend on coins). I refuse to start them at 99c as this is an invitation to disaster. >>



    If you have the right coin 99c starts seem to do well.

    1981-S Type 2 Jefferson Nickel PR70DCAM PCGS

    here

    here

    If you compare it to PCGS price guide $3400. Then they went cheap. I usually wonder why the guide is so high in these cases.
    lccoins still has one on their site and asking PCGS guide
  • TopographicOceansTopographicOceans Posts: 6,535 ✭✭✭✭
    My 99c auctions sell for $1.04
  • cladkingcladking Posts: 28,305 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The market was dead in 1995. There was almost no demand for almost everything and
    the only things that got much of any interest was the expensive coins and very high grade
    morgans.

    We can't return to this because the number of collectors is too high for it to happen. We
    could see continual erosion in demand in specific series but not across the board. It's not
    the coin market that's really weak now anyway but the speculative demand is weak due to
    falling metals prices. Profits and paper profits were being plowed into coins and now this
    speculation is unwinding as the profits and perception changes.

    Eventually metals will rise again and pump a little more air into markets. Next time it will
    be different because time always marches on.
    Tempus fugit.
  • Cougar1978Cougar1978 Posts: 7,539 ✭✭✭✭✭
    is quisnam has scientia est rex rgis

    he who has knowledge is king
    So Cali Area - Coins & Currency
  • MGLICKERMGLICKER Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭


    << <i>The market was dead in 1995. There was almost no demand for almost everything and
    the only things that got much of any interest was the expensive coins and very high grade
    morgans.

    We can't return to this because the number of collectors is too high for it to happen. We
    could see continual erosion in demand in specific series but not across the board. It's not
    the coin market that's really weak now anyway but the speculative demand is weak due to
    falling metals prices. Profits and paper profits were being plowed into coins and now this
    speculation is unwinding as the profits and perception changes.

    Eventually metals will rise again and pump a little more air into markets. Next time it will
    be different because time always marches on. >>



    Partially disagree as Coins and most notably Morgans surged in 2003-4 well before the PM's took off.

    I suspect that those in the middle priced market are getting squeezed as incomes are stagnant against significant inflation.

    Perhaps the lowered oil prices will once again stimulate collector demand.
  • mozinmozin Posts: 8,755 ✭✭✭
    I believe nice Bust material will continue to increase in price, even though it has done a lot of increasing the past year.

    What I see at auction these days in Classic Commemoratives is mostly all above the last very large grade price jump. The number of MS67-8 Classic Commems offered at auctions is huge. I don't think many collectors can afford such super examples. Why these high grade examples are showing now in such high numbers, I do not know. Obviously the big money boys are selling off some of their collections.
    I collect Capped Bust series by variety in PCGS AU/MS grades.
  • EastonCollectionEastonCollection Posts: 1,244 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I feel that semi keys and rare coins will always do well providing you hold them through the peaks and valleys. I am seeing many rare coins where the person acquiring the coin is holding the coin for less than 1 year. In the past, the older collectors held coins for 10 plus years and then sold them off. Now a days, I am seeing very rare coins trading with such frequency that its hard to see why prices should increase. Its hard to imagine a rare coin when you see it appear in auction or for sale within a years time. It seems that some collectors hold on to a coin for 1 year or less. With that holding period its hard to sell and expect a profit. Also, the stock market is at a all time high, so if you are an investor, you would be putting your money in the market not coins. If you are buying great coins and have a long term hold, then you will do very well financially. Remember if you acquire great eye appealing, originally toned rare coins, then you should do very well financially. No guarantees but just wise thinking.
    Easton Collection
  • ManorcourtmanManorcourtman Posts: 7,891 ✭✭✭✭
    I was talking to Dealer Buddy of mine at the MSNS show. He is a medium sized dealer dealing heavy in mid to late 1800 Seated Proof material and better grade type material. He is seriously worried about the market because the good "old" customers are dying off and not being replaced by younger collectors. He was speaking of all the material hitting the market in 2015 ( Pogue sale?) and is worried about so much material hitting the market in a short period of time. Just his words fwiw. He does large shows across the US so he is exposed to a lot of same things the big guys are seeing.
  • EastonCollectionEastonCollection Posts: 1,244 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I was talking to Dealer Buddy of mine at the MSNS show. He is a medium sized dealer dealing heavy in mid to late 1800 Seated Proof material and better grade type material. He is seriously worried about the market because the good "old" customers are dying off and not being replaced by younger collectors. He was speaking of all the material hitting the market in 2015 ( Pogue sale?) and is worried about so much material hitting the market in a short period of time. Just his words fwiw. He does large shows across the US so he is exposed to a lot of same things the big guys are seeing. Text

    Remember - buy low and sell high - its easy to say but extremely hard to practice. Over time these coins will take time for the market to absorb. When it does, then the market will increase - prices are effected by supply and demand- its that easy.
    Easton Collection
  • rickoricko Posts: 98,724 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Fortunately, I do not sell coins, so do not worry about business dips.... In some ways, I look forward to them - often good deals are found. Cheers, RickO
  • hchcoinhchcoin Posts: 4,825 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Lot's of bargains for those who have cash to spend.

    I am seeing the opposite of what Mozin has described in the bust quarter series. Lot's of bust coins selling for lower prices from what I am seeing. Great time to be a buyer in my opinion.
  • rheddenrhedden Posts: 6,567 ✭✭✭✭✭
    He is a medium sized dealer dealing heavy in mid to late 1800 Seated Proof material and better grade type material. He is seriously worried about the market because the good "old" customers are dying off and not being replaced by younger collectors.

    I am 41 and just switched over to collecting proof Seated and Barbers in the last year. Let's not pronounce this market segment just dead yet. What is true is that I'm probably not willing to pay the retail prices your friend wants, if he's like most dealers. Look on CCE Collectors Corner, for example: nothing on there is a good deal in proof Type in my eyes. It's almost all dreck, overgraded, or priced at stupid money. Dealers got spoiled by the market run-up several years ago, where they could pay over price guide for material and still flip it, and fast. That doesn't work any more. Dealers who survived in that market, despite lack of true expertise, will die trying in this market while the dealers with really good eyes for coins and the ability to buy "right" will do just fine. Dealers need to buy smart at wholesale levels and sell a little less than PCGS price guide. Dipped out and overgraded dreck will not sell. This market is not a free lunch like when virtually everything with a Bust/Seated design on it was grossly underpriced back in 2000-6. What's so strange about selling nice coins a little less than price guide? That's the way the market works 90% of the time.



  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>....Partially disagree as Coins and most notably Morgans surged in 2003-4 well before the PM's took off.

    I suspect that those in the middle priced market are getting squeezed as incomes are stagnant against significant inflation.

    Perhaps the lowered oil prices will once again stimulate collector demand. >>




    You can't disagree too much because gold ran up >50% from 2000 to 2003 ($252 to $388). When is a 50% gain not considered noteworthy? Silver didn't do much because it was acting in sympathy with the stock market/recession. Precious metal mining companies exploded higher in price from 2001-2003, netting their best gains of the entire 2001-2011 run. If anything the Morgans ramped up with gold or followed it....they sure as heck didn't do it on their own. They tend to followers, not leaders. I can recall having 60 fresh MS65/66 PCGS common date S mints and only being able to get $76 for the MS65's in the 2002-2003 period. Silver bottomed in the spring of 2003 and started making a decent move by end of summer. This doubling of the silver price into April 2004 is what probably got Morgan dollars selling again....as silver was finally way outperforming gold for the first time in years
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold


  • << <i>I hope so. I am still a younger collector and kind of afraid to buy much at these levels. I figure I will hit my peak for buying coins in 10-15 yrs.
    Hopefully by then all this doom and gloom I read about has occurred and I can buy all kinds of cool coins.
    On the other hand if prices continue to go up, well then there will be more money for really cool fishing trips >>

    A down market won't "destroy coin collecting", and might actually help it since the low prices and cost of building a collection could potentially bring more collectors into the hobby. Coin collecting is generally expensive (at least, for nice stuff.)
    www.sullivannumismatics.com Dealer in Mint Error Coins.
  • bidaskbidask Posts: 13,834 ✭✭✭✭✭
    So when are the auction houses going to revert to 15% ?😉
    I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
    I give away money. I collect money.
    I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.




  • EagleEyeEagleEye Posts: 7,676 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I think the combination of overgraded slabs and using the auction results from those coins selling as the market price will ultimately hurt the market.

    For example, the recent 57th St. hoard that was graded by NGC seems to be vastly overgraded. At least the Large cents and Indians I saw at the NYC auction. The ones that are remotely accurate are being sold on SB's web site, while the overgraded stuff is being blown out at auction. These will sell for below market, but then the market will move lower in response if the guide (like PCGS price guide) uses auction data exclusively. The perception will be a lowering of market values. They say perception is reality.

    Using auction data can be a double-edged sword. Now it is too easy to track, I think most people are to lazy to check the coins behind the numbers.
    Rick Snow, Eagle Eye Rare Coins, Inc.Check out my new web site:
  • ZoinsZoins Posts: 33,811 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Using auction data can be a double-edged sword. Now it is too easy to track, I think most people are to lazy to check the coins behind the numbers. >>



    Stickers can help with that image
  • CoinZipCoinZip Posts: 3,253 ✭✭✭


    Interesting observation, thank you for sharing it with us.

    Coin Club Benefit auctions ..... View the Lots

  • WeissWeiss Posts: 9,934 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I believe there is a very strong possibility that the ranks of coin collectors will thin greatly over the coming years. I deal with 20-somethings on a regular basis. They almost universally use debit cards instead of cash. Most of them don't know how to fill out a check. I can only imagine how little cash will be used in 20 years.

    That said, wanting paintings didn't go away with the advent of the camera. Live music hasnt been (entirely) replaced by recordings. People still go to movies.

    The state quarters program was probably the biggest boost to our hobby in a half-century. Those introduced to coin collecting through that program are maturing into bona fide coin collectors. But can that population be sustained? Dunno.
    We are like children who look at print and see a serpent in the last letter but one, and a sword in the last.
    --Severian the Lame
  • DonWillisDonWillis Posts: 961 ✭✭✭
    I am amazed -but not surprised - at the price increases seen in CBHs! 10 years ago you could buy nice PCGS AU58 coins for $650 - $950. Now those same coins sell for $2500 - $6000.

    PCGS MS66 coins could be found for $12k-$15k. Now they sell for $50k and up.

    Then again CBHs were undervalued for many years. Try finding true gem PCGS coins - they are tough!

    -----

    Also, someone referred to the PCGS Price Guide in comparison to some recent prices realized. It should be clear to everyone that the PCGS Price Guide is for PCGS coins only. Enough said.







  • MGLICKERMGLICKER Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭
    """You can't disagree too much because gold ran up >50% from 2000 to 2003 ($252 to $388). When is a 50% gain not considered noteworthy? Silver didn't do much because it was acting in sympathy with the stock market/recession."""

    2003-4, CC Morgans did an across the board double in less than a year, if I recall correctly. Prices then froze in time. Meanwhile, gold rose above $1800 with silver nearing $50. MS64 commons rose from $40 in 2002 to a top of $90 or so with the peak in silver.

    Bifurcated market, that is why my disagreement was only partial. image
  • pennyanniepennyannie Posts: 3,929 ✭✭✭
    It would not hurt my feelings, but collectors are a funny breed. They never cease to amaze me with their logic at times.
    Mark
    NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!!
    working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!

    RIP "BEAR"
  • panexpoguypanexpoguy Posts: 1,239 ✭✭✭✭✭
    FWIW, I regularly cruise sites of several dealers who carry strong Peace Dollar stock. I hit the sites about once a week on average to see what is available and make plans if there is something pricey I like. In the last three weeks, darn near all of the better items are either on hold, or gone. Things that were new, and things that were there a while. My take on Mercs is different, as they seem to me to be softening. Just my individual observations.
  • AMRCAMRC Posts: 4,266 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I think a few years ago we had a lot of people turn their Gold profits into coins and that was driving the market. With Metals as low as they are people are either licking their wounds (those that got in over the last 3 years or so) and holding fast, or are slowly buying in again and therefore not spending that money on collectibles. Not sure how Gold and Silver can go up with Oil hitting new multi-year lows. The good news is that the energy dividend will be felt far and wide over the next couple of years, the bad news is it means that since this is so disinflationary, PMs will NOT be going up much anytime soon.

    What that means for coins is that middle to lower tier of collectors (those buying MS63 common date Morgans etc) may actually continue to do OK. The high end (conditional rarities and true rarities) will also continue to do well. Everything in between will waddle along until the leverage is worked out of the system. What this means to the collector? Absolutely nothing! You buy nice coins as the come available. The availability of truly nice coins is an opportunity. When you see them, and if you have the money (not borrowed, and not taking food off the table), you should not worry about economic cycles.

    Let me ask you guys this. Does anyone really think that an 1895 Proof Morgan will be worth less it is today in 50 years?
    MLAeBayNumismatics: "The greatest hobby in the world!"
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Buyers whose collections are heavily dependent on coin cycles (ie like gem type coins) should certainly pay attention to economic cycles, especially for purchases that are not critical to their core collection and can be replaced within a year or two (or less). Buying in early 1980 or early 1990 or mid-2008 was generally an unwise thing to do for most collectors. When the SM eventually has a major pull back, it will take a lot of the coin market with it. Some portions will escape as they did back in 1980, 1990, and 2008. If the hobby is just that, and you spend only a small portion of your discretionary income on it, then it matters little when you buy. But, if getting your money back (or most of it) means anything to you, it pays to buy within the coin market cycles. The good thing is there is always something lagging that's a good value....you just have to do the research to find it.



    << <i>So when are the auction houses going to revert to 15% ?😉 >>


    No need to revert. Auction house margins are probably tighter today with 17.5% buyer's fees than they were when they had 0-10% buyer's fees. Most customers don't get fooled by buyer's fees which are another tax on the seller. Since most sellers know how to negotiate seller's and buyer's fees to an appropriate % above hammer....it's a lot of talk about nothing. When I auctioned coins back in 1988 I received a net 87-90% for my coins. With much larger consignments the past 5 years I received 89-91%. The net to (most) customers really hasn't changed despite Buyer's Fee sleight of hand.

    MS66 common date CBH's for $50K+? That certainly can't apply to average coins (or unstickered). I see low end ones in both holders still fetching in the $12K to $22K range. Finding an honest MS65 CBH is as hard today is it was back in 2002-2007. Would have to agree that CBH's are routinely stretched on the grades such that exceptional 65's bring 66 money, and exceptional 66's bring 67 money. Average to lower end coins are probably no higher today than they were in 2006-2008. AU58's at $2500-$6000? Maybe for the most eye-appealing 63ish looking coins for semi key dates and tough varieties. Those are coins that are probably potential candidates to end up in 63 or higher holders. I don't see typical AU58's bring much more than $600-$1600 these days. If they bring well above that range they are exceptional pieces with great eye appeal, 58+, stickered, and typically early or better dates, sometimes older holders. You can still get PCGS stickered AU58's for <$1,000.

    I guess we're reverting to the old days in CBH's where the coin can set the price....not just the holder. The buyers are very selective. Not just any old AU58 CBH is fetching >$1,000-$1,700. The top 20% of the CBH market is distancing itself from the average and so-so pieces. This has been going on for a decade, though has accelerated in the past 3-4 yrs. The slabbed coin market has been evolving like this since spring 1990. There are just too many coins to go around. The market continually reprices the top 20%-33% of the market, and then leaves the rest behind. The pool of what is considered a "good" or "great" coin continues to shrink. Yeah, there may be crazy prices for a small % of MS66's and AU58's out there. But, it's the 66-80% making up the lesser coins that drives overall market liquidity. I recall back in 2007-2011 when 1813 bust halves in AU were all the rage on the forum, especially AU58's. Now I see average one's in AU58 still bringing about the same prices ($1500 to $3000). Did these get more available?

    auction link to AU CBH's

    AU58's >$1,000

    1813 AU CBH's
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • ElcontadorElcontador Posts: 7,412 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Using auction data can be a double-edged sword. Now it is too easy to track, I think most people are to lazy to check the coins behind the numbers. >>



    Stickers can help with that image >>



    No. You need to know how to grade the coin before you buy it. If you are relying on holders and stickers, you are not going to be a happy camper when you sell your coins.
    "Vou invadir o Nordeste,
    "Seu cabra da peste,
    "Sou Mangueira......."
  • TomBTomB Posts: 20,689 ✭✭✭✭✭
    In my experience, there is a real difference today in what is available on the show floor when compared to what was available in the early or mid-1990s. Back then, one could always find a cool coin or two on the floor that wasn't priced to the moon and back. Today, that is simply not the case. Perhaps more coins have been pushed to their max grade now, but the wonderful, original coins with great eye appeal definitely seem to be lacking when compared to two decades ago.
    Thomas Bush Numismatics & Numismatic Photography

    In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson

    image
  • TahoeDaleTahoeDale Posts: 1,785 ✭✭✭
    Brian,

    I agree with your price analysis for CBH's for generic dates. But Don was talking about the scarcer dates(I think) and those that are true PC 66's( or AU 58's).

    I studied the Newman Nov. 2013 results for the MS 66's. All were NGC graded, and most crossed at grade. Price guides at the time for most of the 66's were 25k to 30K.
    And all the better dates sold for over 50K,(1808,1810 for example) with the 1829/7 for 70K.

    However, an average for grade generic, like almost all dates after 1823, may find buyers at 12 to 15K. But an 1818 in 65(Gardner sale last October) in PC 65 sold for closer to 30K.(Guides were around 16K) And the only NGC 67 that crossed at grade(1813) sold for 140,000 in the Newman sale. This was 55K price guide before the sale.

    I do not see a slow period coming anytime soon for nice CBH's in the scarcer dates.

    Additionally, I am personally aware of an 1833 in PC 55(rattler) that sold for mid 3000, and an 1830 sm O in 58(again, a rattler) that sold for 5000. These are exceptional coins, but do appear more often than previously believed.
    TahoeDale
  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 43,793 ✭✭✭✭✭
    My sales increase each year with widgets but my customers do not see them as such. Many others here only see them that way.

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