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Hold Your Horses,Dollar Gaining Strength, Why buy now?

carew4mecarew4me Posts: 3,470 ✭✭✭✭
in Precious Metals
Dollar is in bull cycle with no plans to weaken. Hold off on purchases.

PMs heading lower. What was considered a fantasy a few years ago will again be true as your are
able to purchase $250-$300 SAE rolls and $700-$800 Gold.


Loves me some shiny!

Comments

  • rickoricko Posts: 98,724 ✭✭✭✭✭
    True for now..... but could change at any time. Always the challenge, buy the bottom..... few are successful. Cheers, RickO
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,087 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The dollar has been going up for 3 years and bottomed 6 years ago.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • shorecollshorecoll Posts: 5,445 ✭✭✭✭✭
    On CNBC yesterday, they showed the normal aftermath of the "vomiting camel" formation is a plunge. The commentator suggested $880 gold, but that was a technical calculation, not based on anything real world.
    ANA-LM, NBS, EAC
  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,119 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I suspect the "big boys" know what's going on. For once, in 2013 they predicted correctly, this years drop in gold & silver prices. Most of us did not heed to their warnings. I have not seen any prediction from JPM for next year.
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>The dollar has been going up for 3 years and bottomed 6 years ago. >>



    On top of that the commercials held a net 59K short position in dollar futures (14.7 to 1 short to long ratio). This is about the highest ratio they've reached in the past 5 years or more. They've been stacked "all-in" to the short side for about 6 weeks now. Apparently they don't think the dollar is screaming higher for the foreseeable future. While they are sometimes early in ratcheting up their trades, they are rarely wrong for all that long. I think the last time the commercials stacked this short was during the end of the major dollar rallies in either 2009 or 2010. And both of those times the dollar retraced a very large % of the up-move. The commercials aren't dumb.

    The dollar has lost momentum the past 2 months while it has moved higher in price. Not a positive sign. It's also gone up approx 6 months w/o a breather. In looking back over the past 3 years, most rallies only went 3-5 months before taking a decent pull back. You have to go back to 2008-2010 and even then the two longest vertical rallies w/o an appreciable pull back lasted 4-6.5 months. The weekly RSI on those 2 massive rallies never got past 80.00. The current rally made it to 87 already....and stands at 76. I also see a 24 month expanding wedge pattern (ie megaphone) in play. Those are unstable patterns that typically break lower approx two-thirds of the time. That wedge could always go higher though. Look at the first half of 2013 to see where that expanding wedge led to. There's also a 5 week wedge now in play too. The dollar has also typically put in strong peaks every 8-12 months. This current rally is up to 16 months. Certainly stretched on a number of levels. But, like anything else it could still go a lot higher too, especially if the May 2014 bottom was a 3 year bottoming. The current black weekly candle (if it closes the week as such) would be a sign of a top or a transition point to trend higher.

    3 year dollar ETF chart (UUP)

    Sure looks like a lot of distribution (volume) days in late Sept to mid-October


    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • VanHalenVanHalen Posts: 3,945 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Hold Your Horses,Dollar Gaining Strength, Why buy now? >>



    USD gaining strength sounds like the understatement of the year right now. Can I get a "Like"?

    image
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Doesn't look so good for the dollar right now. Gold, silver and miners had a nice reversal today. Why buy now? Because gold just rallied $40. It was a lot cheaper yesterday. Miners moved up 13-15% on average the past 2 days. That's why one might buy now. Could all be a huge head fake. Though the record volumes in miners this past week would suggest otherwise.

    The jury is still out. But it looks like it's possible that the "no end in sight" dollar rally might have just ended on today's job's report. RIP dollar? The dollar and gold have rallied for months at a time in the past...it's not impossible for it to happen again. The USD/JPY and AUD/USD pairs are better correlations for gold movements than the USD. Watch them.

    Next question. Do you wait for PMs to come back before buying or let them get higher and then chase after them? Hmmm? j
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,779 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>The jury is still out. But it looks like it's possible that the "no end in sight" dollar rally might have just ended on today's job's report. RIP dollar? The dollar and gold have rallied for months at a time in the past...it's not impossible for it to happen again. The USD/JPY and AUD/USD pairs are better correlations for gold movements than the USD. Watch them. >>


    There remains a very strong inverse relationship between the dollar index and gold. Considering the euro (57.6% of the dollar index's weight) and the yen (13.6% of the dollar index's weight) continue to get hammered, the near term outlook for the dollar index is very positive. Concurrent rallys between the dollar index and gold tend to be short lived with gold eventually suffering. The best short term hope for PMs is a moneymaster decision that a strong dollar is taking too much of a toll on exports and jobs and a resumption of a currency "race to the bottom." I suspect our current strong dollar policy is a "sanction" against oil producers who have dared accept non-dollars for payment - it is hurting their currencies.

    Note that in the job's report that 1 out of 5 of the new jobs was for a bartender or a waiter/waitress. Not very promising for the long term employment outlook as most of these were most likely white collar professionals settling for what they could get. Have you noticed the rapidly increasing age of your server at the local hamburger outlet?



    << <i>Do you wait for PMs to come back before buying or let them get higher and then chase after them? Hmmm? >>


    Beforehand confirmation is always nice. Chasing them up is way much better than chasing them down.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Next question. Do you wait for PMs to come back before buying or let them get higher and then chase after them? Hmmm? j >>


    the odds favor a backtest & then major failure???...
    keceph `anah
  • AMRCAMRC Posts: 4,266 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Well I bought a few 100 Ounce Bars today. I could not help myself.
    MLAeBayNumismatics: "The greatest hobby in the world!"
  • CCC2010CCC2010 Posts: 1,997 ✭✭✭
    So do we buy now?
    References:Coinsarefun,DerryB,Bloodman,Zubie,Gerard,Skyman,Bestclser1,Lakesammman,Yellowkid,PerryHall,Piecesofme,HTubbs,grote15
    Coinfame,Kaelasdad,Type2,UNLVino,MICHAELDIXON
    Justacommeman,tydye,78saen,123cents,blue62vette,Segoja,Nibanny
  • BAJJERFANBAJJERFAN Posts: 31,082 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>So do we buy now? >>



    Bought a little Argetntum Wednesday night and some Aurum today.
    theknowitalltroll;
  • rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭


    << <i>So do we buy now? >>


    time...
    keceph `anah
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,087 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>So do we buy now? >>


    time... >>



    Time is free yet it is the most valuable asset any of us possess.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • carew4mecarew4me Posts: 3,470 ✭✭✭✭


    << <i>So do we buy now? >>



    not me. dollar poised to dominate currency markets next year.

    I see $12-$13 Ag. I will buy sub $300 SAE rolls with both hands.

    Loves me some shiny!
  • bronco2078bronco2078 Posts: 10,207 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>To steal an idea from Andy Hoffman, if you plan to convert "X" FRNs into physical, why not convert 1/3 or 1/2 "X" now (balance at your target/bias), just in case the market moves against you?

    Cheers, >>




    Lots of things getting cheaper in terms of dollars right now. I'm interested to see if lumber prices will go down .
  • CCC2010CCC2010 Posts: 1,997 ✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>So do we buy now? >>



    not me. dollar poised to dominate currency markets next year.

    I see $12-$13 Ag. I will buy sub $300 SAE rolls with both hands. >>




    Thanks for this response. I am just a simple man. Not a Jedi...just a simple man. imageimage
    References:Coinsarefun,DerryB,Bloodman,Zubie,Gerard,Skyman,Bestclser1,Lakesammman,Yellowkid,PerryHall,Piecesofme,HTubbs,grote15
    Coinfame,Kaelasdad,Type2,UNLVino,MICHAELDIXON
    Justacommeman,tydye,78saen,123cents,blue62vette,Segoja,Nibanny
  • morbidstevemorbidsteve Posts: 572 ✭✭✭
    I bought last wenesday. Thought it was a deal. Still do.
  • carew4mecarew4me Posts: 3,470 ✭✭✭✭


    << <i>To steal an idea from Andy Hoffman, if you plan to convert "X" FRNs into physical, why not convert 1/3 or 1/2 "X" now (balance at your target/bias), just in case the market moves against you?

    Cheers, >>



    < $300 SAE ROLL = BOTH HANDS

    CURRENT PRICES = 1 HAND

    imageimageimage

    Loves me some shiny!
  • bestmrbestmr Posts: 1,776 ✭✭✭
    Local store wanted $21 for common eagles
    Positive dealing with oilstates2003, rkfish, Scrapman1077, Weather11am, Guitarwes, Twosides2acoin, Hendrixkat, Sevensteps, CarlWohlforth, DLBack, zug, wildjag, tetradrachm, tydye, NotSure, AgBlox, Seemyauction, Stopmotion, Zubie, Fivecents, Musky1011, Bstat1020, Gsa1fan several times, and Mkman123 LOTS of times
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Dollar looking sort of weakened today after a nominal thrust to new highs...and then a break down to back where the thrust started from....and falling below the 2 week uptrend line. Could be time for a noticeable pull back or consolidation....maybe even for a few months.
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Duplicate post
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Looking like Nov 5th and 6th was a decent time to buy PMs. Gold is +$100 since then. And that despite the dollar continuing to rise. So what happens when the dollar finally decides to correct?

    Chasing up after PMs is no better than chasing them down. When you chase them up they invariably correct to below your entry point. Then you sell off in a panic only to see them reverse and leave you chasing after them again....and again....and again. One method that works is to buy on considerable weakness...and each person's definition of that could be quite different.
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • OverdateOverdate Posts: 7,007 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The rise in the dollar index is just a reflection of the dollar's value vs. that of other currencies, primarily the Euro. The dollar index and gold can go up at the same time if all currencies are being deliberately devalued to "stimulate" the economy.

    But that would never happen, right? image

    My Adolph A. Weinman signature :)

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