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Key date coin question...
erwindoc
Posts: 5,428 ✭✭✭✭✭
I was flipping through a coin magazine this morning looking at prices. What got me thinking was the prices of the key date coins across various series. These coins are already very pricey. I was wondering how much more they could increase? Any thoughts?
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Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
1877 Indian cent prices have fallen over the past year 'on the sheets' for the VF and lower grade coins.
Rick Snow pointed out a while back that loose grading is playing a role, and I can believe it. Who wants to pay full boat
VF money for a coin with only 2 or 3 letters of LIBERTY showing, regardless of the holder? But on the flip side, how many folks
are assembling circ IHC sets these days? Supply outweighing demand is probably taking a toll as well.
Other 'pseudo keys' seem to be in a similar situation 09SVDB's, 3 legged Buffs come to mind....but also stay cognizant that even pseudo keys
can be common and overpriced in a low grade, like the 21D walker, but quite scarce and likely underpriced in XF or AU.
Then take a coin like the 09O Barber quarter....though not one of the Big Three in the series, 'the world' has discovered how rare this coin
is in better circ grades, and it goes up nearly every month on the Greysheet (and those prices are still way behind reality). Same goes for
some of the tough seated coins. These are examples of genuinely rare coins, and no 'market maker' dealers are stockpiling them, helping
prop up prices, cuz they ain't around in the first place!
<< <i>Most are more common than many think! >>
Especially in dealer cases.
Take any key date and do a internet search if it's something you could buy numerous examples of any day...
It's not rare but has just been well marketed over the years.
for copper coins.
Yes, an internet search of coins like an 1809, 1811, or 1823 large cent would likely turn up quite a few - most of which are
dark, corroded, damaged, etc. It's the nice smooth chocolate brown pieces that are genuinely scarce, and keep going for high prices
at auction, etc.
Latin American Collection
Should we buy the semi-keys first and then wait a few decades for the "overpriced" keys to come down? Well, I admire your extremely discipline approach to coin collecting.
Is it an investment strategy only; buy the semi-keys at their "undervalued" levels and sell them later for a nice profit? Not a bad idea, if you're shrewd enough to play that game and win.
If my goal is a complete date/mm set, I'm not sure I'd dance around the keys and concentrate on semi-keys. Sure, the keys might come down to earth one day, but I certainly don't have the patience to wait that long. For example, if I were to assemble a nicely matched XF/AU Mercury dime set, I might look for the tough mintmark dates of the teens and twenties and ignore the 16D. After all, it's always available, so I'll wait and wait and wait……….and wait…………and it might come down in price. Still, way too expensive, so I now have an amazing "almost" complete set of Mercury dimes. Could I convince myself (as some collectors do) that I don't need the 16D? Probably not.
So how do collectors like me cope with these issues? Answer: Do not piece together a date/mm set that you will never complete. It adds new meaning to the word "frustration."
If a series is hyped (lincolns around '09, etc), how did the keys fair after the hype compared to the years before the hype? Give back all their gains? Maintain a little?
Whenever someone shows prices in a redbook, or similar periodical, from years and years ago, everyone moons about the prices for the keys and says "I'll take all you can do at that price". But, for anyone around at that time, did they? Or, did they think it was too pricey back then?
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
BTW- I only think this applies to key and semi key dates coins that are in desirable condition. IMHO a damaged 1909 S VDB in very circulated condition will likely not increase in price compared to a great eye appealing semi key date coin that advanced collectors would desire.
My 2 cents and thanks for the read.
I used to, but no longer. I like the keys, and coins I find 'interesting' or with a story.
If the series is popular, the keys tend to go up over the long term. If the series is not (like 3CNs), they languish.
As someone said, it is supply and demand.
i've always seen others that surpass them in rarity yet see no limelight
pattern collectors have to still be shaking their heads over such
keydates to me are a great find to sell...so i can go buy a sleeping beauty
enough can't be said though as keydates...they do sell
All statistically speaking of course.
Scarce keys in popular series are always a good choice.
l
It's not having what you want, it's wanting what you've got.
increasing in value are the ones I still need to finish my
sets. A twisted version of Murphy's law that seems to apply
only to me.
Some things like the 1937-D Three Legged Buffalo nickel are a lot more common that people think it is. When I was dealer I could buy medium quality (MS-63 and 64) examples for $1,100 or $1,200 and flip them very easily for a $100 mark-up. That does not sound like much of percentage, but if something disappeared in less than couple weeks, why not go for it?
The 1893-S dollar is another one. I've known medium sized dealers to have many as a dozen of these coins in grades ranging from VG to EF in stock at one time. It's a key date Morgan Dollar, but it is not a rare coin in those grades.
Two things to watch out for. (1) counterfeits, the certification by the leading grading services takes care of that. (2) over grading, that is a problem, you need to not let you standards get lose because of a coin's key date status.
I do buy unique coins with exceptional eye appeal.