Poll: $50 silver when?
RedTiger
Posts: 5,608 ✭
Simple question: When will silver make a new high (over $50 an ounce)?
2
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It took 20 years to recover the previous high.
According to my calculations thats when inflation becomes a problem
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I think that there's enough leveraged hypothecated debt out there that a deflation could occur and in that case silver wouldn't have a whiff of a chance of getting to $50 again, at least for years and years - until a real economy re-established itself and a work ethic re-established itself.
On the other hand, if you include unfunded liabilities & the current debt load - and plug in some other significant developments such as de-dollarization of world trade and a portion of those dollars coming back to where they were made............the only way that the politicians stand a chance of staying in power would be to inflate like nobody's business. And that doesn't even count the "excess reserves" that have already been donated to our corrupt banking system by our corrupt politicians.
I have to wonder just how long the financial gurus in charge can keep cutting & pasting the monetary system (as we know it) together. I really have no idea how they're going to keep it going without a blowup, or an implosion. The really screwy thing is that it could go either way, or both could happen in some sequence.
I knew it would happen.
(whatever prevents it from going there now will likely prevent it at that time too)
But when it does most will have missed it, be hesitate, unprepared, greedy, and miss the spike.
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<< <i>2-3 years. Based on cohodk's calculations. >>
Always trying to use anothers work to spread an idea or thought.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The previous silver highs were January 1980, and April 2011.
After one day of polling:
Total Votes: 41
Bullish group
six months or less 0 (votes) 0.00 (%)
1 year or less 1 (votes) 2.44 (%)
2 years 1 (votes) 2.44 (%)
3 years 3 (votes) 7.32 (%)
4 years 4 (votes) 9.76 (%)
5 years 5 (votes) 12.20 (%)
6 to 7 years 1 (votes) 2.44 (%)
Neutral group
8 to 10 years 10 (votes) 24.39 (%)
11 to 15 years 6 (votes) 14.63 (%)
Bearish group
16 to 20 years 3 (votes) 7.32 (%)
more than 21 years 4 (votes) 9.76 (%)
no opinion 3 (votes) 7.32 (%)
I am doing an arbitrary clumping setting 7 years or less as bullish, and more than 16 years as bearish, giving me this impressive though made up breakdown:
15 bullish ~37%
16 neutral ~39%
7 bearish ~17%
Compare this to this old thread from May 6, 2011 after a 38% down week in silver as it retreated from its April highs. There were over 200 replies to 2011 poll and the majority (about 55%) thought we would see $50 again within a year.
old thread
My vote in the old poll was for 2 years. Buzz. Wrong.
My vote in this new poll is 10 years. Who knows how many replying here will be around in ten years?
Seeing the activity level fall so much also is telling, 210 in 2011 after the peak vs. 41 votes so far during a major bear market.
As an aside, it is a bit spooky that stock market chatter feels like it is at ghost town levels with the market near all time highs. I touched on that in my weekly blog update (signature link), with less than 15% of U.S. households owning any individual stocks (about 48% might own mutual funds or similar).
<< <i>
<< <i>2-3 years. Based on cohodk's calculations. >>
Always trying to use anothers work to spread an idea or thought.
Gotta go with the experts.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>First to vote w/Harvey
Cheers, >>
The invisible rabbit? (from a Jimmy Stewart movie 1950)
2011+32=2043
2043-2014=29 years
If I eat right and get some exercise I might live long enough to see it one more time
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Frankly im encouraged by the apathy present in this--a precious metals--forum. A long term bottom may be within eyesight. That however does not mean a bull market is close at hand.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Nice work RedTiger and a wonderful presentation of the "fundamental" of investor psychology that is most often overlooked by fundamentalists.
Frankly im encouraged by the apathy present in this--a precious metals--forum. A long term bottom may be within eyesight. That however does not mean a bull market is close at hand. >>
Likewise, if past history is to be repeated, a bottom is usually just around the corner when the majority sentiment is predominantly bearish. Same is was true on the bullish side. It usually happens when least expected.
A few of our members still have "silver blinders" on and continue to believe in far fetched conspiracy theories or blatant market manipulation, when the reality is staring them in the face.
Over supply, lack of demand and most of all, lack of speculators in the gold or silver paper markets (aka market makers)
It got close in the 70's and it got close a few years ago.
I tried to vote for "later today" but that was not on the list??
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Maybe some are not so stupid as to bet on a fixed race?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Kitco bid Monday 9/15/2014 is $18.62.
Bulls 44%
Neutral 29%
Bears 21%
The weekend voters skew more bullish. Vote count is up, but still a far cry from the 200+ votes in a May 2011 poll just after the market peak.
Total Votes: 63
Bull group ~ 44%
six months or less 1 (votes) 1.59 (%)
1 year or less 1 (votes) 1.59 (%)
2 years 4 (votes) 6.35 (%)
3 years 5 (votes) 7.94 (%)
4 years 4 (votes) 6.35 (%)
5 years 10 (votes) 15.87 (%)
6 to 7 years 3 (votes) 4.76 (%)
Neutral group ~29%
8 to 10 years 10 (votes) 15.87 (%)
11 to 15 years 8 (votes) 12.70 (%)
Bear group ~21%
16 to 20 years 6 (votes) 9.52 (%)
more than 21 years 7 (votes) 11.11 (%)
no opinion 4 (votes) 6.35 %
<< <i>Time to put a bow on it, groupings are arbitrary.
Kitco bid Monday 9/15/2014 is $18.62.
Bulls 44%
Neutral 29%
Bears 21%
The weekend voters skew more bullish. Vote count is up, but still a far cry from the 200+ votes in a May 2011 poll just after the market peak.
Total Votes: 63
Bull group ~ 44%
six months or less 1 (votes) 1.59 (%)
1 year or less 1 (votes) 1.59 (%)
2 years 4 (votes) 6.35 (%)
3 years 5 (votes) 7.94 (%)
4 years 4 (votes) 6.35 (%)
5 years 10 (votes) 15.87 (%)
6 to 7 years 3 (votes) 4.76 (%)
Neutral group ~29%
8 to 10 years 10 (votes) 15.87 (%)
11 to 15 years 8 (votes) 12.70 (%)
Bear group ~21%
16 to 20 years 6 (votes) 9.52 (%)
more than 21 years 7 (votes) 11.11 (%)
no opinion 4 (votes) 6.35 % >>
Nice to see a little more conviction from the neutral camp, unfortunately most went bullish. Still less than 50% bulls psychology would indicate an overall neutral stance, which to me means gold performs inline with other asset classes in the near term, 1 year or so.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Last one : 256 sold.
Half dollar made into ring on eBay for $34.50. That's about $69 per ounce
I enjoyed Baley's last post about today.
I have no affiliation to this ebay auction or seller. I just found it for the sake of "manipulation" and cohodk's question. And you know me by now. I cannot resist resistance.
<< <i>Simple question: When will silver make a new high (over $50 an ounce)? >>
But of course, whe(never)....
Bill Holter has become one of my favorite bloggers, because he tells it like it is and has an excellent, logical, presentation
He tells you what you want to hear. My kids liked the Hobbit Trilogy.
So im supposed to buy silver because it is manipulated? And silver is undervalued because in 1320 it bought a whole cow and today only a steak? And we wonder why politicians fail when they tru to appease everyone.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Then perhaps you should restrict your posts to what you do know - Fairy Tales!...
Cheers, >>
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>So im supposed to buy silver because it is manipulated? >>
+square root of -1
<< <i>2011-1979=32
2011+32=2043
2043-2014=29 years
If I eat right and get some exercise I might live long enough to see it one more time >>
Only 28 more years to go
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>....A few of our members still have "silver blinders" on and continue to believe in far fetched conspiracy theories or blatant market manipulation, when the reality is staring them in the face.
Over supply, lack of demand and most of all, lack of speculators in the gold or silver paper markets (aka market makers) >>
Yup, and $203 BILL in otc silver derivatives in July 2008 wasn't manipulation. It's not every day of the week you can find positions in commodities that bet the equivalent of 14 years of world production....and the regulators don't care one iota. And by the end of 2008 those silver derivatives were cut in half. Interesting how the silver derivatives doubled up following the Bear Stearns failure. Any you wonder how oil was tanked so quickly in 2014.....
I voted for 4 years, but figure anytime inside the next Armstrong business cycle decline is a reasonable window (Sept 2015 - January 2020).
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Stock Market swings have been getting shorter since the great depression. It took 25 years to exceed the 1929 highs. The next major high was in 1966 (34 yrs), then 2000 (34 yrs), then 2007 (7 yrs), then 2014 (7 yrs so far). It's become easier to recover the lows and make new important highs. Don't see why silver or gold can't do the same thing.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I might agree with you roadrunner but not during the next cycle...it won't happen during a recession. Its gonna take inflation and that won't happen the economy is rocking. >>
That's a fair point. But didn't silver do ok during stagflation of the 1970's (1971-1974 and 1977-1979). Hard to call those periods truly inflationary. I was considered 1972-1974 as a recession. Then there was also 1993-1998 which I also wouldn't call all that inflationary, especially since most collectibles got hammered from 1990-1996. There's also 2009-2011 which I don't consider inflationary either. That was more of a recessionary period...especially 2009-2010. The economy wasn't really rocking during any of these periods. It was moving, but not rocking like 1958-1966, 1983-1990, 1997-2000, 2004-2008.
Another factor could be just how much readily available silver there is should gold become more difficult to come by in 2016-2020. The people of the world could fall back on silver in a deflationary episode if they don't have other hard assets/very desirable tangible goods readily available to fall back on. Not saying that will happen, just that silver doesn't necessarily have to have inflation to rock. Yes, it helped push it to new highs in March 2008 on inflation. But the early 2011 high seemed a much different to me. The BEA doesn't consider 2009-2011 a recession, but, I do. The Armstrong period of 2016-2020 should be somewhat similar to 2007-2011. While 2007-2011 wasn't just one or other....I suspect neither will be 2016-2020. Rather than identifying 2009-2011 as a recessionary period, it could also be called one of lacking confidence in both the dollar and the government. Silver did great in that period. We probably limit ourselves too much by defining any particular period as just inflationary or deflationary, as both have been present at the same time in the economy for the past 6-1/2 years.
Agreed. What we saw from 2002-2011 was a repricing of gold and silver. For 20 years they both languished and in 2000 were grossly undervalued. They played catch-up, overshot (as almost always happens) and are now repriced accordingly.
In order for another big run, PMs need to become grossly undervalued again, (to set the stage), or we need something to lift all assets. A perfect storm would be a 10 year consolidation near these levels then a huge pickup in economic activity after 2020 ushering in inflation. This is my favored scenario as I have some "ideas" on how this will play out.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i> Rather than identifying 2009-2011 as a recessionary period, it could also be called one of lacking confidence in both the dollar and the government. Silver did great in that period
Agreed. What we saw from 2002-2011 was a repricing of gold and silver. For 20 years they both languished and in 2000 were grossly undervalued. They played catch-up, overshot (as almost always happens) and are now repriced accordingly.
In order for another big run, PMs need to become grossly undervalued again, (to set the stage), or we need something to lift all assets. A perfect storm would be a 10 year consolidation near these levels then a huge pickup in economic activity after 2020 ushering in inflation. This is my favored scenario as I have some "ideas" on how this will play out. >>
Or, just a repeat in lack of confidence in both the dollar and the government, most likely the cause will be another banking liquidity crisis. Once again, excess, overvalued debt will be the catalyst. Those that see this coming are building the stack, those that don't are in denial.
Recent moves to put bank account holders and tax payers further on the hook for future banking losses tells me the banks see the crisis on the horizon.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Possibly, but it would again result in a big spike followed by a heart wrenching collapse. Stackers want to see a sustainable repricing which will only come from global inflation.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Or, just a repeat in lack of confidence in both the dollar and the government, most likely the cause will be another banking liquidity crisis
Possibly, but it would again result in a big spike followed by a heart wrenching collapse. Stackers want to see a sustainable repricing which will only come from global inflation. >>
Not all stackers are only prepping for a permanent currency devaluation. A sustainable repricing due to global inflation will only protect one from currency value loss by maintaining purchasing power (dollar insurance). And, the benefit of this protection is only enjoyed until the stack has been depleted. Big spikes followed by "heart wrenching collapse" provide profit opportunity while returning value to the currency the profits are paid in. While I believe in and hold a dollar insurance policy, I prefer the volatility - it provides opportunity for actual gains. The smart stacker holds dollar insurance AND USES the volatility to fund further stacking.
One thing the "gloom and doomers" fail to understand - once their stack has been used up following a crisis they are back in the swimming pool with everyone else.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I knew it would happen.
In relative terms compared to stocks, gold & silver have become undervalued since the implementation of QE.
We are travelling in a galaxy that is moving, in a solar system that is moving, on a planet that is spinning, and it may be hard to gauge your actual speed, but everything is still relative.
I assume that we should include the effects of Japan's QE, since we are part of the same economic system. And only God knows what China's been up to with their economy.
I knew it would happen.
Time for a bump. Love reading these old threads.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
And still we pursue the "$50" goal..... Not likely this year, but looking more likely for this decade. (How's that for a safe prediction). Cheers, RickO
Back in 2014 when this poll was taken, I indicated "not in my life time." 7 years later, I most definitely think so.
The Derbs still waiting for break even. lol
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
It will take a big jump up within one or two weeks after I sell my stack.
Up or down
4:35 PM EST, July 18, 2022
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey