So, how does one price coins that never(hardly ever) trade?

TahoeDale

We talk about this frequently, and it usually takes an auction result( like Newman, Gardner) to find out the market value for a coin in a grade that rarely trades.

Some examples--In the CBH series, there are several with prices that have no real underlying trades.

The 1818/7 lg 8 shows a price guide of 20,000. It is a 65, pop 1 none finer at PCGS, and the last auction result is Nov. 02. It has remained 20,000
for 10 years.

The 1823 in 66(pop 1) shows no auction result at PCGS. I bought it in 05, but PCGS has gradually increased its guide to 37,500, from a low of 23,000.

The 1832 lg ltrs is pop 1 as a 65, no trades/auction sales, with a guide of 32,500. Raised from 16k to 32 K in 12 years

And, the 181.7 punctuated date is a lonely 65, none finer. No trades, no auction result, and it has always been guided at $45,000.

2 more with little to guide them--both MS 64(one +) 1814 E/A in PC 64 have never traded at auction, with no reported sales. Yet PCGS has guided them up from about 7500 to presently 17,500/22,000.

Conclusion-David, I know you can adjust without auction results or known trades. I guess it is just the time necessary to see what has not been valued in a long time, when there is no auction to support the price.

BAJJERFAN

If the coins were up for sale now, how much would you be willing to pay for them?

magikbilly

Dealers of material I specialize in often tell me "multiply by at least four" but I don't listen. The same folks come to me to see if the stuff is even real, so I use my own judgment.

Eric

TahoeDale

Bajjerfan,

50 to 100% more than the last price given. And I would probably not win any at a large sale.

AMRC

very carefully.

roadrunner

Conclusion-David, I know you can adjust without auction results or known trades. I guess it is just the time necessary to see what has not been valued in a long time, when there is no auction to support the price.

One can logically value coins that have not traded in years by comparing them against "similar" quality and rarity coin that have recently traded. Many collectors adjust their values by doing this. The Newman and Gardner
collections have allowed the updating of many other coins that didn't actually sell in those auctions. The question is, will the price guides adjust for very similar coins? I could place quite a few gem bust halves into the same
rarity category even if they aren't the same date or variety. I might not be right, but it's an estimate. Gene Gardner's gem 1867-s quarter hasn't been on the market for 10 years. But one can somewhat figure out what it's
worth today based on what it brought in 2004 vs. other coins in that era, and what those other coins in 2004 have brought in the last 1-2 years. When that coin went off in 2004 it hadn't been sold since 1986. That 18 year
interval was probably much harder to figure out than this current 10 yr interval would be. Dealers as a rule probably don't want the price guides updated as that's one less thing in their favor when they are competing against you.
Once they buy something right, they can ask whatever they want for it with the logical reasoning that the "price guide is out of date."

If anything, I would think PCGS gets more pressure from dealers not to update the price guides too often, especially on the rare stuff. The generic coins and widgets can be updated as often as you like since most everyone knows
their current trading values.

tradedollarnut

roadrunner speaks wisely. Comparative pricing.

lava

Sellers can use reserves. There may not be two bidders to help you see top dollar in a particular sale.

BryceM

Auction. Everything else is a guess.

Boosibri

Article from Doug Winter on the topic. Comparative pricing as Roadrunner notes.
How Do Your Price Really Special Coins?

mozin

Dealing in top POP coins is something many of us would like to be dealing in. Sadly, this is not the case for most all of us. The big money boys have their small group of competitors, and the rest of us are simply not in their game.

It does appear to me that the top POP coins have realized much more increase in value these past years than the more available coins. The only way to price such top POP coins is to know your competitors well. The rest of us collectors really do not matter much in pricing top POP coins.

keets

if you think coins like this are tough you should try SC$'s or other Exonumia

Elcontador

<< <i>Dealing in top POP coins is something many of us would like to be dealing in. Sadly, this is not the case for most all of us. The big money boys have their small group of competitors, and the rest of us are simply not in their game.

It does appear to me that the top POP coins have realized much more increase in value these past years than the more available coins. The only way to price such top POP coins is to know your competitors well. The rest of us collectors really do not matter much in pricing top POP coins. >>



Top pop coins have maintained their values as long as others have not been made. I have seen a number of previously scarce Liberty Nickels in MS66 having pops explode in the last ten years. The 1896 went from a pop 4 in 2004 to 13 today. The 12 D has a pop of 31, which makes it more common than the 12 P. The 12 D price guide imo has not been adjusted to reflect this fact. The 1894 also used to be a hard date to find in MS 66.

For these reasons, I ignore pop reports.

Broadstruck

<< <i>if you think coins like this are tough you should try SC$'s or other Exonumia >>





I have a token that's unique and none has ever come forth for an image or even a line drawing...

As it never crossed auction it had a book value of $2.50 in 1898, $5.00 in 1962, and just $50.00 in 2004

Bodin

Are you considering NGC auctions and pops as well?
For instance you are wondering why your 1823 MS66 top pop(PCGS) has raised in value to $37,000 over the years. An NGC MS66 sold in 09 for $40k+
Link

And an NGC MS67 sold last year for $94,000, which might aid your value one point down.
Link

You have some nice coins BTW.

RichieURich

What Roadrunner said, mostly. Your best measure is what a willing buyer will pay for the coin.

And it isn't just top-POP coins. I think most of us could determine the value of a 1969-S doubled die cent in XF or AU. But what would a Good-4 be worth?