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Your take on the 1Q, 2.9% drop in GDP......
MGLICKER
Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭
....and 1% May drop in Durable Goods orders?
First off, the numbers are revised and re-revised, but I believe that this was the final Q1 figure. Weather was extreme, but was it negative 3% extreme?
Durable orders dropped 1% in May, where outside of a double tornado or two, weather was not a factor.
Considering gold and silver, will the potential for further easy money prop up gold, will soft economic demand put pressure on silver?
First off, the numbers are revised and re-revised, but I believe that this was the final Q1 figure. Weather was extreme, but was it negative 3% extreme?
Durable orders dropped 1% in May, where outside of a double tornado or two, weather was not a factor.
Considering gold and silver, will the potential for further easy money prop up gold, will soft economic demand put pressure on silver?
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Comments
<< <i>interest rates to stay low. Buy dividend paying stocks like CLCT. >>
on both counts, since I own CLCT & a Mutual Fund Bond Fund
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
<< <i>looks like the "great recovery" is BS. Who woulda thunk? >>
The recovery must be real. Didn't you hear that the stock market hit all time highs? And that unemployment (officially) fell to 6.5%?
<< <i>
<< <i>looks like the "great recovery" is BS. Who woulda thunk? >>
The recovery must be real. Didn't you hear that the stock market hit all time highs? And that unemployment (officially) fell to 6.5%? >>
Tell that to the high number of non-one percenters who don't own stocks and are still looking for a job. Recovery is for the select few.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
If we have, will it be acknowledged by the fed?
A drop in GDP? Does that now mean that so many jobs have been lost that there's just not enough production to generate positive GDP numbers? If Nancy Pelosi really thinks that food stamps help boost GDP, why not give QE dollars to every single US citizen instead of only those who aren't working for it? If we're committed to an imaginary economy, why not just go whole hog?
I knew it would happen.
<< <i> If we're committed to an imaginary economy, why not just go whole hog? >>
Better to go whole gruel as bacon is now $9 a pound.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Backwards looking. >>
True of most economic indicators. It was the first full quarter after the ACA was fully implemented (with exceptions of course). 3% drop seems like a number that cannot fully be explained by snow. 3% is 3 full days of economic activity out of 90.
So the massaged numbers even show the economy sucks now?
Who'd a thunk it?
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Don't we always get snow? Geez. >>
This year was special....but was not a factor in Florida, Texas, California, etc.
<< <i>Backwards looking. >>
Where is all the grand optimism
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<< <i>I refuse to believe ANY numbers that stem from government sources...including vote tallies. >>
but even for manipulated number 2.9% is bad.
<< <i>
<< <i>I refuse to believe ANY numbers that stem from government sources...including vote tallies. >>
but even for manipulated number 2.9% is bad. >>
No kidding, if you take out the bogus deflator, 4% is probably more accurate.
During the last election some people cried foul when a favorable unemployment report came out. They were positive that Obama himself ordered up a good report. But the numbers have continued to drop since then.
They may have screwy ways of obtaining the numbers but I think they are pretty consistently screwy.
Successful BST deals with mustangt and jesbroken. Now EVERYTHING is for sale.
<< <i>If they are playing with the numbers then what happens next quarter? More playing? Eventually they would be caught.
During the last election some people cried foul when a favorable unemployment report came out. They were positive that Obama himself ordered up a good report. But the numbers have continued to drop since then.
They may have screwy ways of obtaining the numbers but I think they are pretty consistently screwy. >>
Point being, there may be other definitions of a recession out there.
<< <i>
<< <i>Backwards looking. >>
True of most economic indicators. It was the first full quarter after the ACA was fully implemented (with exceptions of course). 3% drop seems like a number that cannot fully be explained by snow. 3% is 3 full days of economic activity out of 90. >>
Actually its an annualized number, so its really like losing about 2.5 out of a 365, or about 20 hours in a quarter. Im not going to endorse the number, but what if 2nd quarter comes in at +4%?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Backwards looking. >>
True of most economic indicators. It was the first full quarter after the ACA was fully implemented (with exceptions of course). 3% drop seems like a number that cannot fully be explained by snow. 3% is 3 full days of economic activity out of 90. >>
Actually its an annualized number, so its really like losing about 2.5 out of a 365, or about 20 hours in a quarter. Im not going to endorse the number, but what if 2nd quarter comes in at +4%? >>
I would really like to see the economy bounce back. Many friends are suffering financially. 4% would be exceptional, just not seeing it though at retail. I know that online folks such as Amazon have absorbed a lot of volume, but Best Buy, Wal-Mart, Sears, Darden, Radio Shack, Whole Foods, are getting hit pretty good. Most telling is DSW. When the ladies are not buying shoes, it tells me that wallets are on empty.
It tells me they are not buying at DSW. Retail is a HIGHLY competitive business in which hundreds, if not 1000s of stores go under every year. Women will always buy shoes, perhaps just not at the same store. If the designs dont meet the need, then there be trouble. Just ask MJ.
Looks at last months auto sales. There will be a HUGE rebound in GDP.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Most telling is DSW. When the ladies are not buying shoes, it tells me that wallets are on empty
It tells me they are not buying at DSW. Retail is a HIGHLY competitive business in which hundreds, if not 1000s of stores go under every year. Women will always buy shoes, perhaps just not at the same store. If the designs dont meet the need, then there be trouble. Just ask MJ.
Looks at last months auto sales. There will be a HUGE rebound in GDP. >>
Walmart is expecting a light 2nd Quarter. Text
Retail sales are not inflation adjusted. If product retail prices are up even 3% for example, the retailer would need a 3% jump in sales to move the same number of units.
A 2.9% GDP drop, in the face of zero percent interest rates, should serve as an economic warning to those paying attention. US economic growth is once again in reverse gear.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
<< <i>
<< <i>Most telling is DSW. When the ladies are not buying shoes, it tells me that wallets are on empty
It tells me they are not buying at DSW. Retail is a HIGHLY competitive business in which hundreds, if not 1000s of stores go under every year. Women will always buy shoes, perhaps just not at the same store. If the designs dont meet the need, then there be trouble. Just ask MJ.
Looks at last months auto sales. There will be a HUGE rebound in GDP. >>
Walmart is expecting a light 2nd Quarter. Text
Retail sales are not inflation adjusted. If product retail prices are up even 3% for example, the retailer would need a 3% jump in sales to move the same number of units. >>
that doesn't necessarily hold fully true and doesn't fit the point
retails sales are not inflation adjusted. if product prices are up even 3% for example, the retailer would need a 3% jump in sales for the same comparison.
<< <i>that doesn't necessarily hold fully true and doesn't fit the point >>
How so?
<< <i>This number is a bogus as the unemployment number....totally fudged and manipulated.... real unemployment is about 16% when those whose benefits have stopped are included... and those who are not looking for work anymore...no idea what this number actually is, but would believe somewhere north of 5%....Cheers, RickO >>
Then why do I see so many "help wanted" signs? Ohh, those folks don't want those jobs.
<< <i>
<< <i>This number is a bogus as the unemployment number....totally fudged and manipulated.... real unemployment is about 16% when those whose benefits have stopped are included... and those who are not looking for work anymore...no idea what this number actually is, but would believe somewhere north of 5%....Cheers, RickO >>
Then why do I see so many "help wanted" signs? Ohh, those folks don't want those jobs. >>
Very good point, dbcoin. Plenty of help wanted signs in my town as well. Unfortunately folks would rather collect a $400 unemployment check than put in an honest weeks work at Arby's or Circle K. Unemployment benefits are an impediment to encouraging a healthy and productive economy.
It's easy to say people don't want to work but a lot of those jobs suck in less than obvious ways.
Here in Mass we have had a mandatory health care system for over 5 years and it leads to all sorts of distortions in the labor market.
As an example the son of a friend of mine applied for and got a job at a major motel chain as a maintenance man. They hired him at $12.50 an hour but he only is on for 25 hours.
The Best Western offers him insurance but it is $350 per 2 weeks
Here is where the loophole comes in. His low weekly salary would qualify him for Mass health at I think $135 per month but because his employer offers insurance he is disallowed from assistance.
His employer offers insurance so it's off the hook but its too expensive so no one opts in , the employer saves lots of money on policies that aren't signed up for . Plus the insurance being offered gets the state off the hook for the public policy so the state doesn't have to help out either.
He works his way through his taxes to figure the penalty he will have to pay per month and finds that it is waived because of those 2 factors so he isn't penalized . He thinks he dodged a bullet in not being fined so he is happy.
Obamacare is based on Romney care it's safe to assume that something like this will become the norm in all 50 states. Lots of help wanted signs for 20 or 30 hour jobs , benefits that are benefits in name only as no one can take advantage of them.
While he is hired for 25 hours nominally he is averaging 35 or 38 but he is still considered part time . If he was full time Best Western would need to offer more benefits presumably but there seems to no penalty for hiring part time positions and giving them full time hours "temporarily"
I am on your side regarding the economy destroying overregulation. Had I come out of college in 1979 with student loans and mandatory health insurance, never would have been able to start my first small business.
Sadly that is the game plan.
Then why do I see so many "help wanted" signs? Ohh, those folks don't want those jobs
Jeez ...... some of you haven't had to look for work in a very long time have you ?
Have you forgotten how good the jobs sound on paper but when you found out the details it wasn't worth your effort. It's been 40 yrs for me, but I still haven't forgotten the crummy experience.
Many businesses are always advertising looking for the rare super star with the right amount of experience they can exploit. Many get hundreds of apps before hiring someone.
My best friends youngest just graduated college last mth with an Engineer Degree. Has sent out piles of resumes, no work experience. He hasn't even gotten an interview. He's been applying locally for any job just to pay rent now. He resigned to applying at McDonalds last week, they turned him down. I didn't know Micky D's turned anyone down. Apparently they don't want to throw an intelligent person into their crew of dummies. LOL, a little like the movie "divergence".
My daughter on summer break with 2 yrs college spent 7 wks looking for a job. Last wk was hired part-time at Target. Min wage 2 days a wk, had to go out and buy clothes to fit their color scheme that set her back a weeks work.
Anyone that thinks there are enough jobs for people that pay a livable wage are simply not living in reality. We have a huge percentage of people that have just given up on the American Dream. A bigger story than the 1 percenters are the 50 percenters that don't make enough money to pay income tax. I'm afraid that this Country is in a huge socio-economic crisis with no end in sight.
I've bought Gold/Sterling for about 5yrs locally from the populace. Middleclass housewives with unemployed husbands selling me their grandmother's sterling to pay the mortgage. Next mth selling me some of their gold jewelry. There are a lot of people, in a lot of trouble that are having to get used to living like an illegal in their own country. Lower standard of living, working gigs for cash and borrowing from family.
True too. Better to earn a minimum wage though that live on welfare, unless the person is truly disabled.
and why didn't they get an internship or co-op while they were in school? What was their GPA?
<< <i>So Bronco.....what if he opts out of the employer insurance, what is the penalty?
I am on your side regarding the economy destroying overregulation. Had I come out of college in 1979 with student loans and mandatory health insurance, never would have been able to start my first small business.
Sadly that is the game plan.
Only at tax prep time did he realize that the penalty was going to be waived. He was resigned to being penalized initially. It's ridiculous worksheet that has to be completed the health care worksheet takes longer to complete than the actual tax form.
I actually did his taxes for him as a favor to his dad thats how I know all this
Mass actually almost has a flat tax setup which would be pretty simple to deal with without capital gains or health care
What engineering degree and what part of the country?
Mechanical Engineer from University of Colorado
He was close to a 4.0 in H.S. He was always a good student. Don't know his College gpa, but would reckon pretty decent. He got his degree in 4 yrs unlike the longer avg.
He's a great kid with zero background problems. He tried getting internships in school but was unsuccesful. He's an avid hiker and trying to stay in Colorado. IDK, but maybe he hasn't applied outside of CO !!!
The school needed to help out as well. No internships? That's what he should have been looking for when deciding on schools. U of CO is a top 40 engineering school
<< <i>The textbook definition of a recession is when GDP growth is negative for two consecutive quarters or more. While this is the widely accepted view it of course depends on which school of thought is issuing the textbook.
A 2.9% GDP drop, in the face of zero percent interest rates, should serve as an economic warning to those paying attention. US economic growth is once again in reverse gear. >>
It'll be interesting to see what the 2nd quarter will bring. I'm fairly certain the -2.9% is the "best" number the Gov't could come up with after all its number crunching. But what is it really? So if Q2 comes in at +.1% all is well, recession averted, right?
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I have put out over 2,000 resumes and job applications since March 2012: I've had exactly 3 interviews in 2 years. I'm on LinkedIn, FB, all of the job boards (even CareerBuilder, The Ladders and TechResorce...both ridiculous data miners trying to sell me anything from better resumes to "guaranteed job placement" services). I have applied in person, online, through various networking venues...no dice. McDonald's (and just about any other "low-wage" business won't return my calls or provide any resume feedback. I even applied for an "administration technician" with the Army Reserve (never been in the Armed Forces) and was told I qualified but wasn't the most qualified?!?!, so again no dice. Just no jobs to be had.
While pursuing a job, I've started my own business (a Quad and Side-by-Side rental business) here in Arizona. Barely paying the bills and the damage/maintenance required on the equipment. Business had been steady (around $5k/mo in rentals, clearing maybe $1500/mo BEFORE expenses) but the last 2 mos nose dived, not even getting $3k in rentals.
All the sob story above to say: There ain't a "recovery." The job situation is a joke; I don't have a degree, so most companies toss my resume in the round file from the start (so much for American know how). I watch gas and oil prices continue their rise, food staples getting higher and higher, clothing in the local thrift stores getting worse and worse and picked over (yeah, save wherever possible), have cut all expenses for my family of 4 down to the nub, and just wonder: What happened to the America I watched as a kid? Where are the opportunities for the average man, let alone the experienced?
I don't really blame the government, but I sure don't trust 'em, either.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i> What happened to the America I watched as a kid? Where are the opportunities for the average man, let alone the experienced? >>
It got lost in the bailout era, my friend.
Drop me a PM and let me know what part of AZ you are in. If I come across anything in the Tucson area worth pursuing, I will drop you a message.
<< <i>This number is a bogus as the unemployment number....totally fudged and manipulated.... real unemployment is about 16% when those whose benefits have stopped are included... and those who are not looking for work anymore...no idea what this number actually is, but would believe somewhere north of 5%....Cheers, RickO >>
I don't see anyone blaming the regime in power in this thread.
QE1/2/3...........such bullsit!
If you like your doctor, you can ............
<< <i>
<< <i>This number is a bogus as the unemployment number....totally fudged and manipulated.... real unemployment is about 16% when those whose benefits have stopped are included... and those who are not looking for work anymore...no idea what this number actually is, but would believe somewhere north of 5%....Cheers, RickO >>
I don't see anyone blaming the regime in power in this thread.
QE1/2/3...........such bullsit!
If you like your doctor, you can ............
Every "regime" for the last 100 years had a hand in this mess. It's not about a regime, it's about who the regime really answers to, regardless of the color of their stripes. We have been conditioned to blame this party or that party when in fact they are all to blame. How many times have we changed "regimes" yet nothing changes?
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
<< <i>Have never seen this type of hopelessness DerryB. I am sure that the 1930's were much worse, but in my 50 years of observation, many folks now really seem to be at a dead end. >>
Many folks, not all, are equally responsible for their own hopelessness by becoming enslaved to debt. I have a hard headed son who's current mortgage is at least twice what he originally paid for the house. His ATM has now dried up, but unfortunately he's still got the higher monthly payment. Just think about all those you know who have fallen into the perpetual debt trap. Our own leaders are at the front of the pack.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
There's a reason that they keep chipping away at the US Constitution. They are all the same party and they love their power & perks.
I knew it would happen.