<< <i>1979 - $2100 1978 - $2500 1977 - $2700 1976 - $6900 1975 Mini - $2700 1975 - ?? ---- Perhaps $3800 1974 - $12,400 ------I think this box is right around $10K. Very few have been up for sale in the past 5 years to know. 1973 - ?? ----depending on series but minimum $5000 on the weaker series to $9500 last series. 1972 Series 5 & 6 - $16,000 1971 - ?? 1970 - ??
It is hard to tell what a person is willing to pay if they are an unopened box collector for the 1974 and older. I think a mint 1971 and 1970 Topps box would blow the doors off of my guestimate. >>
You think a regular '75 wax box is only $3800 with a '76 at $6900? Seems out of whack.
I agree prices will go higher as supply diminishes, but my position is that if you were looking for something to put your money in right now that will yield significant return in the near-term, '77 - '80 wax is not it. I feel that we are nearing the height of the run-up and will shortly find the new equilibrium for these years.
Now, if I just really wanted a box of one of these years because my focus is to have a box of each, then I would probably pay whatever the going price is because I just have to have one.
Comparatively speaking, is 1976 that much more difficult than a 1977? I always saw 1976 as the 1986 of the 70's. Good set with lots of solid second year stars. >>
The list above is a mix of actual sales and eBay asking prices. I wouldn't equate those, like your 1976 and 1974 prices, as "market." There's a reason why those boxes are sitting on eBay.
I've seen a bunch of 1976 boxes for sale in the last 18 months, unlike 1977, which I have not seen. However, I believe 1977 is likely to fall in between 1978 and 1976.
Steve's 1975 buy price is $5000. I believe the next box could be $7,000-ish.
As Shane noted, it's difficult to predict 1971-1974, but listing the 1972 box at $16,000 is probably way off (too high).
Interesting topic regarding pricing. If I had the money I would buy the 75's (mini or regular) all day in comparison to any of the boxes 76-79. It is debatable, but I think the 75 is the most collected set of the 70's (you could persuade me on the 71's, but given their comparative prices the 75 set has a much more attainable entry point cost-wise). I think by most accounts, the 75 RC class is the strongest of the decade adding to the collectibility. If I can have a Mini and Regular box for the price of one 1976 box, I think that is outrageously lopsided. I am not disagreeing with the prices out forth, only what my buying inclination would be.
<< <i>so a new question...maybe deserves it's own thread...
The price of wax v. rack v. cello hasn't appreciated the same.
I understand that certain mid 70s cellos don't have as many gradeable cards as wax, however, most will agree rack has the most.
Why has wax gone up more than rack and cello? >>
IMO that's because of the ability to search cello's and racks, and because of the knowledge some/many collectors have of sequencing. That being said, rack and cellos in a sealed case form have also risen sharply, and are just as desirable if not more desirable than wax. It's funny how you really have to take so many different factors into consideration when evaluating the value or hierarchy of these different forms in which the products were produced/offered.
<< <i>Why has wax gone up more than rack and cello? >>
i believe the one element of chasing vintage wax boxes vs. rack or cello is quite simply the presentation. there's something much more attractive about a wax box which actually adds character and eye appeal to a collection than just a nondescript box. although the product contained within could be perceived as generally the same, i'd bet if you took an informal poll of those who crave this stuff, most would say that the wax box and the wax packs looks like gold on a shelf.
to me, the greater attraction of racks and cellos is that you see what's inside, including top or bottom HOFers, stars, and uh........sequencing probabilities.
<< <i>so a new question...maybe deserves it's own thread...
The price of wax v. rack v. cello hasn't appreciated the same.
I understand that certain mid 70s cellos don't have as many gradeable cards as wax, however, most will agree rack has the most.
Why has wax gone up more than rack and cello? >>
I've wondered the same thing. Other than the designs on the wax packs and corresponding boxes which make them nice for display purposes, I'd much rather have the equivilent rack box.
I won't get into the whole price debate thing as I thought the market would cool off long ago. I started collecting unopen back in 1986, took a break during the early 1990's, and returned to collecting unopened around 1997. I'm glad I got back into it when I did as I'd never be able to afford to purchase what I have now.
"The woods are lovely, dark and deep. But I have promises to keep, And miles to go before I sleep, And miles to go before I sleep."
"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."
Collecting: Any unopened Baseball cello and rack packs and boxes from the 1970's and early 1980s.
<< <i>Why has wax gone up more than rack and cello? >>
i believe the one element of chasing vintage wax boxes vs. rack or cello is quite simply the presentation. there's something much more attractive about a wax box which actually adds character and eye appeal to a collection than just a nondescript box. although the product contained within could be perceived as generally the same, i'd bet if you took an informal poll of those who crave this stuff, most would say that the wax box and the wax packs looks like gold on a shelf.
to me, the greater attraction of racks and cellos is that you see what's inside, including top or bottom HOFers, stars, and uh........sequencing probabilities. >>
You said what was on my mind, but so much better. Guess that is why I'm an accountant. I especially agree with your last statement.
"The woods are lovely, dark and deep. But I have promises to keep, And miles to go before I sleep, And miles to go before I sleep."
"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."
Collecting: Any unopened Baseball cello and rack packs and boxes from the 1970's and early 1980s.
Racks (and cellos) have risen significantly, too. I recall when $750 was a strong price for a 79 rack box (just 2 years ago). That same box now is $3,300. I bought a 79 cello box from Steve for $450 about 2 years ago, and a 78 cello box a few months later for $650. Those boxes now are $1,500+.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Regarding rip value vs unopened as a collectible, look no further than vending. 1979 vending is still selling for well under $1k or less than $2 per card. Compare that to the $2k wax price and you can see that rip value leaves the building when talking about wax. Vending doesn't have the same collectibility as the other forms, so I assume that's why it doesn't pull in nearly the same coin as packs. Even if vending is not the best success rate for pulls, if you're talking about case fresh BBCE authenticated boxes, should they really sell for less than half its wax counterpart? I think that does validate that the superior presentation of the other forms plays a significant role in its value.
<< <i>Regarding rip value vs unopened as a collectible, look no further than vending. 1979 vending is still selling for well under $1k or less than $2 per card. Compare that to the $2k wax price and you can see that rip value leaves the building when talking about wax. Yet vending doesn't have the same collectibility as the other forms. I think that does validate that the superior presentation of the other forms plays a significant role in its value. >>
There's also the perception that vending yields lower grade cards and the fact that it's one unit instead of 36.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i> There's also the perception that vending yields lower grade cards and the fact that it's one unit instead of 36. >>
True but if it's case fresh and sealed by BBCE, would it really be worth $1.50 per card as opposed to $5 per card for wax? >>
If you're buying simply to open for cards, no, but the wax box price has an added premium over that for simply ripping. Also, you can open a few packs and leave rest intact, while once a vending box is cracked, it's done.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< Regarding rip value vs unopened as a collectible, look no further than vending. 1979 vending is still selling for well under $1k or less than $2 per card. Compare that to the $2k wax price and you can see that rip value leaves the building when talking about wax. Yet vending doesn't have the same collectibility as the other forms. I think that does validate that the superior presentation of the other forms plays a significant role in its value. >>
Packs always carry a big premium to vending. Part of the allure of buying wax packs is the chance that if you buy one pack, you can pull that high dollar rookie card or card that grades out a PSA 10 for the price of one wax pack. With vending, its all or nothing. There is and always will be the "gambling" aspect of buying wax packs where you just dont know what you are going to get for the price of a pack. You could hit a homerun or striket out.
Plus as pointed out, part of the allure of wax boxes and packs as opposed to vending and rack are the wax pack wrappers themselves and the boxes themselves. They look great and have great graphics. Also, most people remember buying wax packs as a kid. Kids didnt walk down to their neighborhood drug store and buy a 500 count vending box of 1975 Topps. So they want to buy what they remember buying as a kid.
I would agree though, if you are trying to build a raw set from vending or wax, its going to be much cheaper to buy the vending and open it up than doing so with wax (or even cello or racks).
As far as prices of wax packs, I do think they have to have some tie in to the value of the cards themselves. As we have seen, the tie in may be quite loose, but seems to me that the price of the most valuable card in the set (graded as a PSA 8) shouldnt exceed the price of an unopened pack. Of course this is just my own "rule of thumb" when looking at buying packs. Now this just doesnt factor in pure collectibility and "rareness" of the unopened state of the pack itself, but when I think of potential resale value of that pack if I am not ripping it, seems to me there has to be some correlation between what the value of the cards are inside and what price someone would be willing to pay for an unopened pack. For example, if I can buy a PSA 8 George Brett rookie for $150, why would I buy a pack of 1975 Topps for more than $150? Now that doesnt mean I wont still pay $150 for that wax pack, but it seems harder to justify if the most expensive card can be bought for less than the pack.
Iseecon - that is a very interesting perspective about the price of the PSA 8 being the barometer by which you measure the pack price you are willing to consider paying. I jumped on eBay after I read that and noticed the Ozzie 8's are selling for $100-200 ea. Based on your buying model, that would make a $55 79 pack a pretty good deal. I know that's just a gauge you use but I just thought it was interesting. Montana rookie 8's range from $100-150...another good buy at about $25-35/pack. I wonder if other buyers have similar buying parameters like that.
<< <i>Iseecon - that is a very interesting perspective about the price of the PSA 8 being the barometer by which you measure the pack price you are willing to consider paying. I jumped on eBay after I read that and noticed the Ozzie 8's are selling for $100-200 ea. Based on your buying model, that would make a $55 79 pack a pretty good deal. I know that's just a gauge you use but I just thought it was interesting. Montana rookie 8's range from $100-150...another good buy at about $25-35/pack. I wonder if other buyers have similar buying parameters like that. >>
79s are notoriously bad for centering and card stock issues with Ozzie being one of the tougher cards in the set so value of a PSA 7 may be more apropos in this case.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i> There's also the perception that vending yields lower grade cards and the fact that it's one unit instead of 36. >>
True but if it's case fresh and sealed by BBCE, would it really be worth $1.50 per card as opposed to $5 per card for wax? >>
If you're buying simply to open for cards, no, but the wax box price has an added premium over that for simply ripping. Also, you can open a few packs and leave rest intact, while once a vending box is cracked, it's done. >>
That's what I'm saying. If you're buying to rip, I'm going with vending all day long based on the pricing differential.
I do agree that the price per card differential is attractive, but the condition of cards coming out of the average vending box is also not going to be as nice as what you'll find in wax or rack, so that tempers the expectations just a bit unless you can cherry pick a box from middle of a well protected case.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>I do agree that the price per card differential is attractive, but the condition of cards coming out of the average vending box is also not going to be as nice as what you'll find in wax or rack, so that tempers the expectations just a bit unless you can cherry pick a box from middle of a well protected case. >>
I think the box that was recently auctioned for $700ish was like 4/14. So odds are it was from the middle of a case.
<< <i>The price of wax v. rack v. cello hasn't appreciated the same.
Why has wax gone up more than rack and cello? >>
I think for a number of reasons:
1. I rarely saw rack or cello packs as a kid. What I remember opening most is wax and I suspect I am not the only one. For nostalgia driven collectors, they are probably more drawn to what they opened/collected as kids.
2. Aesthetics. Rack boxes (at least more recent ones) all look the same from the outside... sport to sport... year to year. Cello boxes too had the same basic design, just different collors. Wax boxes were unique.
3. The ability to more easily search/sequence racks & cellos as mentioned previously.
I understand most here look at the unopened niche through the graded card perspective, but those who open and submit cards are a small part of the overall hobby, and people collect for many different reasons.
Comparatively speaking, is 1976 that much more difficult than a 1977? I always saw 1976 as the 1986 of the 70's. Good set with lots of solid second year stars. >>
The list above is a mix of actual sales and eBay asking prices. I wouldn't equate those, like your 1976 and 1974 prices, as "market." There's a reason why those boxes are sitting on eBay.
I've seen a bunch of 1976 boxes for sale in the last 18 months, unlike 1977, which I have not seen. However, I believe 1977 is likely to fall in between 1978 and 1976.
Steve's 1975 buy price is $5000. I believe the next box could be $7,000-ish.
As Shane noted, it's difficult to predict 1971-1974, but listing the 1972 box at $16,000 is probably way off (too high). >>
When I saw this comment I thought it was appropriate to respond to the thread as:
a) Many of you know that I have tracked the market pretty closely for a long time and have some reasonable knowledge of the subject b) I happen to be the one who listed the 1972 box (several of you probably know that), and therefore have some direct knowledge of why it was done this way
It should come as no surprise to any of those who collect 1970s unopened when I say that the last 2 years or so has been a serious drought when it comes to early 1970s availability in baseball. Other than the few pieces that Fritsch lets slip out via the auction house (and the 2013 REA spring auction) we really haven't seen much other than 1975 minis. There are a number of drivers behind that situation, but one of them certainly is that supply is not sufficient to meet the demand.
As a result, we've seen most of the 1970-1975 boxes move upward in price dramatically. We have actually seen prices go up by 2x-3x on many of these hard-to-find items in the last 24-27 months. Sometimes even higher! Remember a ways back when BBCE broke the sealed case of 1977 wax at $1k/box? Well there wass just a private sale of one of those boxes at more than $3k! We used to be able to get a box of 1975 minis from BBCE at $1215. Today that same box will set you back $2750! 1973 4th series boxes used to go at $1800 and today are actually getting in the neighborhood of $4k (series 5 boxes have moved from the low $4k range to in excess of $11k).
For some its about the value of what's inside, but for the people who are truly moving this market its about the rarity of the intact full box and the packs inside. Those are the poeple who are truly driving this market. They don't rip what they purchase. The value is in owning the original, undisturbed item that has survived many decades without someone coming along and deciding to open it.
As boxes have become more scarce, individual packs have moved up in price accordingly too. There are less boxes available to "break", so the pakcs and racks that are out there are less easy to come by.
There are certainly other factors that have accelerated the situation a bit, and skewed some sales prices but the at the root of it is the simple micro economics of supply and demand.
For now, I won't comment on specific prices in the current market, other than the one that I established with my 1972 series 5/6 listing.
With regard to that listing, if my primary purpose in putting up that listing was simply to sell a box then I agree that $16k is ahead of where the market is right now. However, as I am in no great hurry to part with this box (which is not easily going to be replaced) setting a high price to see what kind of interest it would generate is far from a bad idea. Certainly I have received some foolish low-ball offers, but there have also been a couple that were starting to get close to a point where I would pull the trigger on the deal. Given some of the zealous behaviors we've seen over the last 24 months in this market, I set a price that if someone gets impulsive I certainly won't be disappointed with (even with eBay FVF of 10%).
As to where the market truly is on a box like that, I have done the analysis and will share the following information for all to consider:
1) If you look at it from the "what's inside" perspective and compare relative to the 1973 series 5 boxes you will find that the 1972 series 5/6 boxes compare favorably in terms of the low pop (high $) items that could be pulled from the packs.
2) If you look at it from purely the intact box perspective, you will find that the number of 1973 series 5 boxes that exist is substantially greater than the number of 1972 series 5/6 boxes (all of which came from the same partial case, from the same source and one or which we broke here on the boards and found the cards to be very high end indeed)
3) The provenance of the 1972 boxes is tied directly to a former Topps employee. The partial case was broght home from work and carefully packed away more than 42 years ago. The only similar provenance items of that era would probably be from the Fritsch inventory.
While there is no formal methodology that exists which is universally used to evaluate the value of these kinds of items, I would submit that what I have shared above (and other steps which I have not discussed) is certainly at least the beginnings of the kind of foundation that would be used to evaluate them.
At the end of the day, we all know that something is only worth what someone else is willing to pay for it. And in a market that is as illiquid and small as this its hard to put solid numbers on just about anything. However, given the "comps" I cant see how the 1972 5/6 box could be valued any lower than the 1973 series 5 box (and in fact, I currently value it a little bit higher than the 1973 boxes).
^ Took me a while to read, but is well-reasoned. I try to keep a close eye on the market as well, but there are a lot of deals getting done that I never see, so my data is likely skewed to the low side (as Grote has demonstrated multiple times by being a better predictor of auction end prices). eBay is a great venue to put product out there for feelers and see what type of interest you can generate and where the market may actually sit. No point in under-selling a super-scarce product. We're seeing this approach a fair amount with some recent listings. One thing listings with high BIN/BO prices arguably do is mentally adjust price perception upward. As a fellow 5/6 series 1972 box owner, I can't complain about that!
Comparatively speaking, is 1976 that much more difficult than a 1977? I always saw 1976 as the 1986 of the 70's. Good set with lots of solid second year stars. >>
The list above is a mix of actual sales and eBay asking prices. I wouldn't equate those, like your 1976 and 1974 prices, as "market." There's a reason why those boxes are sitting on eBay.
I've seen a bunch of 1976 boxes for sale in the last 18 months, unlike 1977, which I have not seen. However, I believe 1977 is likely to fall in between 1978 and 1976.
Steve's 1975 buy price is $5000. I believe the next box could be $7,000-ish.
As Shane noted, it's difficult to predict 1971-1974, but listing the 1972 box at $16,000 is probably way off (too high). >>
The 1974 was a selling price on eBay, but the 1976 was a sale price
So Tim, what does this make '79 trays worth? $165?? Gosh, I take a couple months vacation and I have to re-orient myself to ever-changing prices!
Life is not a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming 'WOW What a Ride!' Mark Frost
Comments
<< <i>1979 - $2100
1978 - $2500
1977 - $2700
1976 - $6900
1975 Mini - $2700
1975 - ?? ---- Perhaps $3800
1974 - $12,400 ------I think this box is right around $10K. Very few have been up for sale in the past 5 years to know.
1973 - ?? ----depending on series but minimum $5000 on the weaker series to $9500 last series.
1972 Series 5 & 6 - $16,000
1971 - ??
1970 - ??
It is hard to tell what a person is willing to pay if they are an unopened box collector for the 1974 and older. I think a mint 1971 and 1970 Topps box would blow the doors off of my guestimate. >>
You think a regular '75 wax box is only $3800 with a '76 at $6900? Seems out of whack.
Now, if I just really wanted a box of one of these years because my focus is to have a box of each, then I would probably pay whatever the going price is because I just have to have one.
Investor vs. collector mentality, I suppose.
<< <i>So these are the approximate current wax box marketplace prices?
1979 - $2100
1978 - $2500
1977 - $2700
1976 - $6900
1975 Mini - $2700
1975 - ??
1974 - $12,400
1973 - ??
1972 Series 5 & 6 - $16,000
1971 - ??
1970 - ??
Comparatively speaking, is 1976 that much more difficult than a 1977? I always saw 1976 as the 1986 of the 70's. Good set with lots of solid second year stars. >>
The list above is a mix of actual sales and eBay asking prices. I wouldn't equate those, like your 1976 and 1974 prices, as "market." There's a reason why those boxes are sitting on eBay.
I've seen a bunch of 1976 boxes for sale in the last 18 months, unlike 1977, which I have not seen. However, I believe 1977 is likely to fall in between 1978 and 1976.
Steve's 1975 buy price is $5000. I believe the next box could be $7,000-ish.
As Shane noted, it's difficult to predict 1971-1974, but listing the 1972 box at $16,000 is probably way off (too high).
The price of wax v. rack v. cello hasn't appreciated the same.
I understand that certain mid 70s cellos don't have as many gradeable cards as wax, however, most will agree rack has the most.
Why has wax gone up more than rack and cello?
<< <i>so a new question...maybe deserves it's own thread...
The price of wax v. rack v. cello hasn't appreciated the same.
I understand that certain mid 70s cellos don't have as many gradeable cards as wax, however, most will agree rack has the most.
Why has wax gone up more than rack and cello? >>
IMO that's because of the ability to search cello's and racks, and because of the knowledge some/many collectors have of sequencing. That being said, rack and cellos in a sealed case form have also risen sharply, and are just as desirable if not more desirable than wax. It's funny how you really have to take so many different factors into consideration when evaluating the value or hierarchy of these different forms in which the products were produced/offered.
<< <i>Why has wax gone up more than rack and cello? >>
i believe the one element of chasing vintage wax boxes vs. rack or cello is quite simply the presentation. there's something much more attractive about a wax box which actually adds character and eye appeal to a collection than just a nondescript box. although the product contained within could be perceived as generally the same, i'd bet if you took an informal poll of those who crave this stuff, most would say that the wax box and the wax packs looks like gold on a shelf.
to me, the greater attraction of racks and cellos is that you see what's inside, including top or bottom HOFers, stars, and uh........sequencing probabilities.
<< <i>so a new question...maybe deserves it's own thread...
The price of wax v. rack v. cello hasn't appreciated the same.
I understand that certain mid 70s cellos don't have as many gradeable cards as wax, however, most will agree rack has the most.
Why has wax gone up more than rack and cello? >>
I've wondered the same thing. Other than the designs on the wax packs and corresponding boxes which make them nice for display purposes, I'd much rather have the equivilent rack box.
I won't get into the whole price debate thing as I thought the market would cool off long ago. I started collecting unopen back in 1986, took a break during the early 1990's, and returned to collecting unopened around 1997. I'm glad I got back into it when I did as I'd never be able to afford to purchase what I have now.
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep."
"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."
Collecting:
Any unopened Baseball cello and rack packs and boxes from the 1970's and early 1980s.
<< <i>
<< <i>Why has wax gone up more than rack and cello? >>
i believe the one element of chasing vintage wax boxes vs. rack or cello is quite simply the presentation. there's something much more attractive about a wax box which actually adds character and eye appeal to a collection than just a nondescript box. although the product contained within could be perceived as generally the same, i'd bet if you took an informal poll of those who crave this stuff, most would say that the wax box and the wax packs looks like gold on a shelf.
to me, the greater attraction of racks and cellos is that you see what's inside, including top or bottom HOFers, stars, and uh........sequencing probabilities. >>
You said what was on my mind, but so much better. Guess that is why I'm an accountant. I especially agree with your last statement.
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep."
"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."
Collecting:
Any unopened Baseball cello and rack packs and boxes from the 1970's and early 1980s.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>Regarding rip value vs unopened as a collectible, look no further than vending. 1979 vending is still selling for well under $1k or less than $2 per card. Compare that to the $2k wax price and you can see that rip value leaves the building when talking about wax. Yet vending doesn't have the same collectibility as the other forms. I think that does validate that the superior presentation of the other forms plays a significant role in its value. >>
There's also the perception that vending yields lower grade cards and the fact that it's one unit instead of 36.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>
There's also the perception that vending yields lower grade cards and the fact that it's one unit instead of 36. >>
True but if it's case fresh and sealed by BBCE, would it really be worth $1.50 per card as opposed to $5 per card for wax?
<< <i>
<< <i>
There's also the perception that vending yields lower grade cards and the fact that it's one unit instead of 36. >>
True but if it's case fresh and sealed by BBCE, would it really be worth $1.50 per card as opposed to $5 per card for wax? >>
If you're buying simply to open for cards, no, but the wax box price has an added premium over that for simply ripping. Also, you can open a few packs and leave rest intact, while once a vending box is cracked, it's done.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Packs always carry a big premium to vending. Part of the allure of buying wax packs is the chance that if you buy one pack, you can pull that high dollar rookie card or card that grades out a PSA 10 for the price of one wax pack. With vending, its all or nothing. There is and always will be the "gambling" aspect of buying wax packs where you just dont know what you are going to get for the price of a pack. You could hit a homerun or striket out.
Plus as pointed out, part of the allure of wax boxes and packs as opposed to vending and rack are the wax pack wrappers themselves and the boxes themselves. They look great and have great graphics. Also, most people remember buying wax packs as a kid. Kids didnt walk down to their neighborhood drug store and buy a 500 count vending box of 1975 Topps. So they want to buy what they remember buying as a kid.
I would agree though, if you are trying to build a raw set from vending or wax, its going to be much cheaper to buy the vending and open it up than doing so with wax (or even cello or racks).
As far as prices of wax packs, I do think they have to have some tie in to the value of the cards themselves. As we have seen, the tie in may be quite loose, but seems to me that the price of the most valuable card in the set (graded as a PSA 8) shouldnt exceed the price of an unopened pack. Of course this is just my own "rule of thumb" when looking at buying packs. Now this just doesnt factor in pure collectibility and "rareness" of the unopened state of the pack itself, but when I think of potential resale value of that pack if I am not ripping it, seems to me there has to be some correlation between what the value of the cards are inside and what price someone would be willing to pay for an unopened pack. For example, if I can buy a PSA 8 George Brett rookie for $150, why would I buy a pack of 1975 Topps for more than $150? Now that doesnt mean I wont still pay $150 for that wax pack, but it seems harder to justify if the most expensive card can be bought for less than the pack.
<< <i>Iseecon - that is a very interesting perspective about the price of the PSA 8 being the barometer by which you measure the pack price you are willing to consider paying. I jumped on eBay after I read that and noticed the Ozzie 8's are selling for $100-200 ea. Based on your buying model, that would make a $55 79 pack a pretty good deal. I know that's just a gauge you use but I just thought it was interesting. Montana rookie 8's range from $100-150...another good buy at about $25-35/pack. I wonder if other buyers have similar buying parameters like that. >>
79s are notoriously bad for centering and card stock issues with Ozzie being one of the tougher cards in the set so value of a PSA 7 may be more apropos in this case.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
There's also the perception that vending yields lower grade cards and the fact that it's one unit instead of 36. >>
True but if it's case fresh and sealed by BBCE, would it really be worth $1.50 per card as opposed to $5 per card for wax? >>
If you're buying simply to open for cards, no, but the wax box price has an added premium over that for simply ripping. Also, you can open a few packs and leave rest intact, while once a vending box is cracked, it's done. >>
That's what I'm saying. If you're buying to rip, I'm going with vending all day long based on the pricing differential.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>I do agree that the price per card differential is attractive, but the condition of cards coming out of the average vending box is also not going to be as nice as what you'll find in wax or rack, so that tempers the expectations just a bit unless you can cherry pick a box from middle of a well protected case. >>
I think the box that was recently auctioned for $700ish was like 4/14. So odds are it was from the middle of a case.
<< <i>The price of wax v. rack v. cello hasn't appreciated the same.
Why has wax gone up more than rack and cello? >>
I think for a number of reasons:
1. I rarely saw rack or cello packs as a kid. What I remember opening most is wax and I suspect I am not the only one. For nostalgia driven collectors, they are probably more drawn to what they opened/collected as kids.
2. Aesthetics. Rack boxes (at least more recent ones) all look the same from the outside... sport to sport... year to year. Cello boxes too had the same basic design, just different collors. Wax boxes were unique.
3. The ability to more easily search/sequence racks & cellos as mentioned previously.
I understand most here look at the unopened niche through the graded card perspective, but those who open and submit cards are a small part of the overall hobby, and people collect for many different reasons.
Snorto~
<< <i>
<< <i>So these are the approximate current wax box marketplace prices?
1979 - $2100
1978 - $2500
1977 - $2700
1976 - $6900
1975 Mini - $2700
1975 - ??
1974 - $12,400
1973 - ??
1972 Series 5 & 6 - $16,000
1971 - ??
1970 - ??
Comparatively speaking, is 1976 that much more difficult than a 1977? I always saw 1976 as the 1986 of the 70's. Good set with lots of solid second year stars. >>
The list above is a mix of actual sales and eBay asking prices. I wouldn't equate those, like your 1976 and 1974 prices, as "market." There's a reason why those boxes are sitting on eBay.
I've seen a bunch of 1976 boxes for sale in the last 18 months, unlike 1977, which I have not seen. However, I believe 1977 is likely to fall in between 1978 and 1976.
Steve's 1975 buy price is $5000. I believe the next box could be $7,000-ish.
As Shane noted, it's difficult to predict 1971-1974, but listing the 1972 box at $16,000 is probably way off (too high). >>
When I saw this comment I thought it was appropriate to respond to the thread as:
a) Many of you know that I have tracked the market pretty closely for a long time and have some reasonable knowledge of the subject
b) I happen to be the one who listed the 1972 box (several of you probably know that), and therefore have some direct knowledge of why it was done this way
It should come as no surprise to any of those who collect 1970s unopened when I say that the last 2 years or so has been a serious drought when it comes to
early 1970s availability in baseball. Other than the few pieces that Fritsch lets slip out via the auction house (and the 2013 REA spring auction) we really haven't
seen much other than 1975 minis. There are a number of drivers behind that situation, but one of them certainly is that supply is not sufficient to meet the demand.
As a result, we've seen most of the 1970-1975 boxes move upward in price dramatically. We have actually seen prices go up by 2x-3x on many of these hard-to-find items in the last 24-27 months. Sometimes even higher! Remember a ways back when BBCE broke the sealed case of 1977 wax at $1k/box? Well there wass just a private sale of one of those boxes at more than $3k! We used to be able to get a box of 1975 minis from BBCE at $1215. Today that same box will set you back $2750! 1973 4th series boxes used to go at $1800 and today are actually getting in the neighborhood of $4k (series 5 boxes have moved from the low $4k range to in excess of $11k).
For some its about the value of what's inside, but for the people who are truly moving this market its about the rarity of the intact full box and the packs inside. Those are the poeple who are truly driving this market. They don't rip what they purchase. The value is in owning the original, undisturbed item that has survived many decades without someone coming along and deciding to open it.
As boxes have become more scarce, individual packs have moved up in price accordingly too. There are less boxes available to "break", so the pakcs and racks that are out there are less easy to come by.
There are certainly other factors that have accelerated the situation a bit, and skewed some sales prices but the at the root of it is the simple micro economics of supply and demand.
For now, I won't comment on specific prices in the current market, other than the one that I established with my 1972 series 5/6 listing.
With regard to that listing, if my primary purpose in putting up that listing was simply to sell a box then I agree that $16k is ahead of where the market
is right now. However, as I am in no great hurry to part with this box (which is not easily going to be replaced) setting a high price to see what kind of
interest it would generate is far from a bad idea. Certainly I have received some foolish low-ball offers, but there have also been a couple that were
starting to get close to a point where I would pull the trigger on the deal. Given some of the zealous behaviors we've seen over the last 24 months
in this market, I set a price that if someone gets impulsive I certainly won't be disappointed with (even with eBay FVF of 10%).
As to where the market truly is on a box like that, I have done the analysis and will share the following information for all to consider:
1) If you look at it from the "what's inside" perspective and compare relative to the 1973 series 5 boxes you will find that the 1972 series 5/6 boxes
compare favorably in terms of the low pop (high $) items that could be pulled from the packs.
2) If you look at it from purely the intact box perspective, you will find that the number of 1973 series 5 boxes that exist is substantially greater than the
number of 1972 series 5/6 boxes (all of which came from the same partial case, from the same source and one or which we broke here on the boards
and found the cards to be very high end indeed)
3) The provenance of the 1972 boxes is tied directly to a former Topps employee. The partial case was broght home from work and carefully packed away
more than 42 years ago. The only similar provenance items of that era would probably be from the Fritsch inventory.
While there is no formal methodology that exists which is universally used to evaluate the value of these kinds of items, I would submit that what I have shared above (and other steps which I have not discussed) is certainly at least the beginnings of the kind of foundation that would be used to evaluate them.
At the end of the day, we all know that something is only worth what someone else is willing to pay for it. And in a market that is as illiquid and small as this
its hard to put solid numbers on just about anything. However, given the "comps" I cant see how the 1972 5/6 box could be valued any lower than the 1973
series 5 box (and in fact, I currently value it a little bit higher than the 1973 boxes).
Time will tell.
Dave
<< <i>
<< <i>So these are the approximate current wax box marketplace prices?
1979 - $2100
1978 - $2500
1977 - $2700
1976 - $6900
1975 Mini - $2700
1975 - ??
1974 - $12,400
1973 - ??
1972 Series 5 & 6 - $16,000
1971 - ??
1970 - ??
Comparatively speaking, is 1976 that much more difficult than a 1977? I always saw 1976 as the 1986 of the 70's. Good set with lots of solid second year stars. >>
The list above is a mix of actual sales and eBay asking prices. I wouldn't equate those, like your 1976 and 1974 prices, as "market." There's a reason why those boxes are sitting on eBay.
I've seen a bunch of 1976 boxes for sale in the last 18 months, unlike 1977, which I have not seen. However, I believe 1977 is likely to fall in between 1978 and 1976.
Steve's 1975 buy price is $5000. I believe the next box could be $7,000-ish.
As Shane noted, it's difficult to predict 1971-1974, but listing the 1972 box at $16,000 is probably way off (too high). >>
The 1974 was a selling price on eBay, but the 1976 was a sale price
1976 Wax Box
<< <i>Actually it's at least the second time one broke $2k. I'm thinking this is the new norm.
$2100 >>
So Tim, what does this make '79 trays worth? $165?? Gosh, I take a couple months vacation and I have to re-orient myself to ever-changing prices!