1979 Topps baseball wax box breaks 2K
grote15
Posts: 29,742 ✭✭✭✭✭
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
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$2100
<< <i>Actually it's at least the second time one broke $2k. I'm thinking this is the new norm.
$2100 >>
It's hard to keep up, LOL! Just amazed that a box that was $400, give or take, for well over 15 years, could quintuple in past 2 years.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Jeff
<< <i>I know it's not as heavily collected, but '79 OPC wax boxes were selling for around $500 two months ago. That's a steal in comparison. >>
The last 79 OPC wax box went for around $760 last month IIRC. I forgot to set a snipe or it would have went for more. I agree it is a steal at less than 40% the cost of the Topps version. Yes $2k seems to be a regular thing for 79 Topps wax boxes (BBCE sealed anyway) as the last one sold on eBay went for $2100. I think the more impressive sale of the day was the 1981 Topps FB Wax box that went for $1325! I have thought for a while that 1981 is underrated. If this is the new normal for that product then I guess I can't say that anymore. We will see if this is an anomaly or a new trend for FB.
Mesapsa, people paying these prices aren't buying the boxes in hopes of pulling high grade cards. 99.99% of these boxes will not be opened. The value is in the unopened boxes, not the contents of the boxes.
James
pack(from BBCE)and was planning on buying a box and rack pack at the national. At this point, I might be priced out of the game
<< <i>Like Steve said, I was more impressed that the 81 football box sold for $1325. They have been selling for $900 or so lately. I'm glad I got mine when I did.
Mesapsa, people paying these prices aren't buying the boxes in hopes of pulling high grade cards. 99.99% of these boxes will not be opened. The value is in the unopened boxes, not the contents of the boxes.
James >>
I would agree with this in principle, but at some point there has to be a correlation between the value of the whole and the value of its contents, otherwise why pay significantly more for a 5th series 73 wax box vs a 4th series 73 wax box.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Jmaciu's Collection
Simply dumb money chasing that box. If I sold unopened I would be selling everything I had at the moment.
Robb
<< <i>Prices on unopened have been so crazy these last couple of years. I personally buy boxes or packs to rip and have shifted to just buying complete 1970's sets searching for hidden gems to submit as it is way more cost effective at these current prices. As for 1979 Topps, I'd much rather buy numerous sharp sets for less than $100 bucks a piece and search for my gems that way. >>
+1
I agree--all you MORONS who are holding unopened stuff should contact me--I'll take that crap off off your hands!!!!
As for the fall off in prices thought--there was a guy named jersey5 many years ago who.........
<< <i>I think its rediculous to invest in unopen wax, unless were talking about 1952 wax or possibly a 86 Fleer basketball box, your just better off to pay for that nice PSA 10 card as your chances of ever opening the box up and getting that PSA 10 grade for your favorite player is highly unlikely. Also I do not trust anyone be it my local card store or BBCE to "wrap" my box in plastic saying that its unsearched. All these unopen wax box collectors will see a fall off in prices imo.
I agree--all you MORONS who are holding unopened stuff should contact me--I'll take that crap off off your hands!!!!
As for the fall off in prices thought--there was a guy named jersey5 many years ago who......... >>
I was going through repricing my collection vs two years ago. When I got to the unopened packs from the 60s, I noticed most hadn't moved in price at all. The reason? None had sold in those grade levels in the past two years.
WTB: PSA 1 - PSA 3 Centered, High Eye Appeal 1950's Mantle
<< <i>1979 wax boxes were a bad rip value proposition even when they were $400. >>
Couldn't agree more. The money being paid for VERY commonplace 1979 Topps cards is CRAZY. The set is nothing special IMO.
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<< <i>1979 wax boxes were a bad rip value proposition even when they were $400. >>
Couldn't agree more. The money being paid for VERY commonplace 1979 Topps cards is CRAZY. The set is nothing special IMO. >>
the money is not being paid for whats IN the packs, its being paid for the packs themselves.
WTB: PSA 1 - PSA 3 Centered, High Eye Appeal 1950's Mantle
<< <i> the money is not being paid for whats IN the packs, its being paid for the packs themselves. >>
If that is the case - and it is becoming more and more apparent that it is indeed the case - then these packs are no better than tulip bulbs.
Completely decoupling the potential rip value from the cost of the box itself is irrational exuberance at its finest.
1980 is crazy too. Steel City had hand collated sets on sale around Xmas time - for the price of two packs, I got the set, which had a nice Henderson and Ryan.
I'm of the opinion that 1979 and 1980 are reaching overvalued levels. I would say anyone getting in now, for the sake of holding as an investment, will be waiting awhile to see any significant appreciation.
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<< <i>1979 wax boxes were a bad rip value proposition even when they were $400. >>
Couldn't agree more. The money being paid for VERY commonplace 1979 Topps cards is CRAZY. The set is nothing special IMO. >>
the money is not being paid for whats IN the packs, its being paid for the packs themselves. >>
I think too many people focus only on the rip value. Sure that plays a part but not everything. I bet if you polled collectors and asked them whether they would rather have a set in a grade that is monetarily equivalent to an unopened box value or the unopened box with the stipulation the packs can't be ripped, a majority would prefer the unopened box. Sets are easy to come by but boxes are getting harder and harder to find. I'd rather have an unopened 1972 wax box than a NM-MT raw set. I can put together nice raw sets relatively easy but it's getting tougher to locate full wax boxes from that issue in recent years.
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<< <i>1979 wax boxes were a bad rip value proposition even when they were $400. >>
Couldn't agree more. The money being paid for VERY commonplace 1979 Topps cards is CRAZY. The set is nothing special IMO. >>
the money is not being paid for whats IN the packs, its being paid for the packs themselves. >>
I think too many people focus only on the rip value. Sure that plays a part but not everything. I bet if you polled collectors and asked them whether they would rather have a set in a grade that is monetarily equivalent to an unopened box value or the unopened box with the stipulation the packs can't be ripped, a majority would prefer the unopened box. Sets are easy to come by but boxes are getting harder and harder to find. I'd rather have an unopened 1972 wax box than a NM-MT raw set. I can put together nice raw sets relatively easy but it's getting tougher to locate full wax boxes from that issue in recent years. >>
SPOT ON!
Think about this. Go to the show next month, and you'll be able to buy just about any post war baseball set, many times over. But want wax boxes? no dice.
WTB: PSA 1 - PSA 3 Centered, High Eye Appeal 1950's Mantle
<< <i>the money is not being paid for whats IN the packs, its being paid for the packs themselves. >>
That's the point, at least with 1979 Topps... the packs themselves are not that rare. These prices have far surpassed the potential value of cards inside... but they've also risen so fast, that many can argue they've far surpassed the value of current supply. It's just hard to justify... all demand driven. I don't blame people one bit for thinking its getting into bubble territory.
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<< <i>the money is not being paid for whats IN the packs, its being paid for the packs themselves. >>
That's the point, at least with 1979 Topps... the packs themselves are not that rare. These prices have far surpassed the potential value of cards inside... but they've also risen so fast, that many can argue they've far surpassed the value of current supply. It's just hard to justify... all demand driven. I don't blame people one bit for thinking its getting into bubble territory. >>
1979 is an interesting case. I'd argue that packs from this year are common but I don't see the recent high prices bringing out a hoard of boxes. Legit, authenticated boxes are few and far between. The garbage wax like the one I accidentally won recently are common and sell for $10 or so. I'm not a big fan of this set but the pack design is actually one of the better ones and the last year before Topps started repeating the large baseball design from 1980 onward.
<< <i>I think too many people focus only on the rip value. Sure that plays a part but not everything. I bet if you polled collectors and asked them whether they would rather have a set in a grade that is monetarily equivalent to an unopened box value or the unopened box with the stipulation the packs can't be ripped, a majority would prefer the unopened box. Sets are easy to come by but boxes are getting harder and harder to find. I'd rather have an unopened 1972 wax box than a NM-MT raw set. I can put together nice raw sets relatively easy but it's getting tougher to locate full wax boxes from that issue in recent years. >>
For me, this would be a case-by-case basis. At the current time, I would much rather have unopened anything up through 1975. Past that, the choice isn't that clear. When you can buy 16 raw sets of 1979 for the price of a box, I might lean toward buying a set and allocating that unused cash toward buying a box of '75 minis to leave unopened.
<< <i>Absolute stupidity!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!This is what drops real hobbyists out. >>
HAAAAAA. You are so funny and I know you are just kidding. No one is that stupid to think a person who loves collecting cards is going to hault collecting and pull out of the hobby because of the buying trends that you find stupid. If it does, please let it be CrissCriss because let me introduce you to this door.
While I can't explain (I really could and have) the rising cost of unopened material, I also can't explain the increase for a 1979 Topps Ozzie Smith PSA 10. Is the unopened box increasing making the Ozzie PSA 10 go up or is it the other way around? The people complaining about the unopened craze are those who missed the boat for unopened. You guys are showing your cards-not good. This unopened run will eventually slow down and burst when a huge truck load of every year from 1964-1983 Topps starts to show up for sale. (There are some that feel it is available for purchase in crate fulls). If so, the prices for those years will tank and you and all the other haters can make fun at all of us suckers. However, there are some (like me) that feel the unopened products are scarcer by the day. There might be a case or two that pops up each year for all of the collectors, or the kid inside of us, that wants a small, little piece of that. We might have to pay strongly for a box or pack, but no one is going to outbid me attitude pops up everytime. Why would you care what I do with my money? Is it that unopened collectors are actually enjoying our hobby and you the stale, set collector is not? Don't get me wrong I collect sets from all years and I enjoy that just as much, but I the collector realize my sets are the same value today as four years ago. I don't care because I am not selling today. The day I get tired of buying, collecting, trading and reading this message board is the day I quit the hobby. Not when I get jealous that I don't have a PSA 8 Topps Mickey Mantle card that goes up $10,000 every year. That should be the day a REAL HOBBYIST drops out sir.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>I just don't see how the rising prices of unopened would make anyone want to "leave" the hobby. I would think a collector would see this as "good" for the hobby. I'm just glad to see we're in a very strong market right now. >>
i think one of concerns some hold, including me, is that the hobby as a whole has gone through some various ups and downs over the years and a lot of people got burned and either cut back or walked away. the last big "bubble pop" in the hobby took more than a decade to reverse, and there's certainly a case to be made to say we could have another round of it occur soon.
i personally see the vintage unopened and the decoupling of the box prices from the potential rip value as very high risk. while not tulips, i just don't know that these boxes are really all "that rare" - there are easily multiple hundreds if not thousands of them out there still. just because they aren't all wrapped by BBCE doesn't change the numbers, it just changes the premium for those that are already wrapped.
the question i keep asking myself is why would most collectors want to own just one of those particular years? where there are great RCs it of course makes sense, but when there isn't even potential rarity doesn't persuade me. for really all collectible items, there's got to be something "great" about it - and i think that's the question people are asking of things like '79 boxes. maybe it's rare, but it definitely ain't great!
and on another point, i don't feel "left out" because i didn't/don't collect unopened and to be honest in some ways it may actually be helping in terms of collecting singles. with this much money flowing at boxes, i have to believe it's taking some of the funds away from singles. and while raw sets aren't changing in value, higher end graded sets certainly have and there's a pretty strong market for sets with the stars only graded as well.
the only logic i can put on potentially collecting unopened would be to put a run of boxes together, say a particular decade or one from every year since i was born, that sort of thing. of course once you hit those mid 80's that whole thing kind of starts to fall apart. but even then, i have trouble then putting such a huge premium on a full box versus just a bunch of packs pulled together to make a full box. what's the difference, and who could realistically ever tell?
i clearly don't get it, but there are those that do and right now that seems to be at least where this board is focused.
i do like looking at the stashes and the man room picks though - i had to give mine up 18 months ago and i miss it every day.
I respect everyone's opinions, but I am puzzled why some think it is so crazy to pay 'x' amount for a '77 - 80 unopened box. Fact is, nobody knows if it is crazy.
I know I never thought the DOW would go from 6,500 to almost 18,000. Heck, I bailed and moved my 401K to the bond fund at 14,500. My loss.
Over the past decade, I overpaid for just about every 1975 - 1977 rack pack that I purchased (at the time). And I was often mad at myself. Now, I'm up anywhere from 50% - 200% on all said racks. Who knows.
I owned apple stock from 88 - 110 a few years ago, sold, and celebrated. What an idiot. However, there are plenty of APPL shares, not wax boxes.
Prediction. . we are going higher.
<< <i>Plus, simply put, unopened is a new market niche. I know I don't care if the inner cards do not sum up to the entire unopened pack/rack/cell/box. I buy the box, set it on my shelf, and stare at it. >>
This is where a lot of people are having trouble justifying the current prices. You can only decouple the price of unopened and the value of the cards inside it so much, before it becomes irrational. If this statement were truly the case-- no care for the summed value of cards inside and only wanted for display of said product-- then you would be perfectly content with a box of resealed packs. It's almost an oxymoron to purchase BBCE sealed unopened for the sole purpose of viewing pleasure.
While I am an unopened collector, and I do value the unopened product as much as the cards inside... I'll never lose the correlation of what I'm paying for a product and what value could potentially be inside. Otherwise, regardless of my emotion, I always look at it as a losing proposition.
<< <i>This is an interesting debate between the bulls and the bears. But I think the debate misses the point.
It's as simple as this. Supply low. Demand high.
The box is the commodity, not the packs or cards inside.
>>
Not simple. Source of demand is a huge concern. Why has demand skyrocketed in such a short time? Why did a '79 box suddenly become a hot commodity? Little if anything has changed in terms of pure collector interest. Could the bulk of the demand be speculative? All important questions.
<< <i>It's as simple as this. Supply low. Demand high. >>
But it's not quite that simple... supply and demand is a balancing act, just like a triple beam. You put your stuff on one side and it sinks, you put your counterweight on the other side and it wobbles back and forth until it settles at it's balancing point. Price is basically the same concept... balancing between supply and demand. The thing about vintage unopened... supply AND demand are unknown values and are purely speculative. There's no facts about either. So when supply is overestimated (being shorter than it really is) and demand is fueled more by emotions and fear than it is by valid rationale, then price isn't necessarily justified.
And it's more than just the box being the commodity, or people would be splurging for empty display boxes of the same product. And it's not just about a box with packs in it, or there wouldn't be a premium for non-x outs or boxes from a sealed case. And it's not just about boxes of packs with cards in it, or people would be buying up non-BBCE boxes up at the same prices. So when it's all said in done, it very well does come down to the cards in the packs. Of everyone out there buying vintage unopened at these prices, how many don't care what rookies/HOFers are in that set and how many don't care if the packs have been cherry picked and resealed when determining a price you're willing to pay for said product? So ultimately, despite what anyone says, it truly does come down to the cards inside the packs (not necessarily the value of the cards inside the pack, but the cards in the packs nonetheless).
1979 - $2100
1978 - $2500
1977 - $2700
1976 - $6900
1975 Mini - $2700
1975 - ??
1974 - $12,400
1973 - ??
1972 Series 5 & 6 - $16,000
1971 - ??
1970 - ??
Comparatively speaking, is 1976 that much more difficult than a 1977? I always saw 1976 as the 1986 of the 70's. Good set with lots of solid second year stars.
<< <i>Why has demand skyrocketed in such a short time? Why did a '79 box suddenly become a hot commodity? >>
This person might have an idea........
<< <i>So these are the approximate current wax box marketplace prices?
1979 - $2100
1978 - $2500
1977 - $2700
1976 - $6900
1975 Mini - $2700
1975 - ??
1974 - $12,400
1973 - ??
1972 Series 5 & 6 - $16,000
1971 - ??
1970 - ??
Comparatively speaking, is 1976 that much more difficult than a 1977? I always saw 1976 as the 1986 of the 70's. Good set with lots of solid second year stars. >>
$12,400 for '74 seems downright ridiculous to me at nearly $350/pack. Strangely, the BBCE buy prices are pretty similar for all years 1972-76. I don't think '74 should be higher than '73 or '75.
1978 - $2500
1977 - $2700
1976 - $6900
1975 Mini - $2700
1975 - ?? ---- Perhaps $3800
1974 - $12,400 ------I think this box is right around $10K. Very few have been up for sale in the past 5 years to know.
1973 - ?? ----depending on series but minimum $5000 on the weaker series to $9500 last series.
1972 Series 5 & 6 - $16,000
1971 - ??
1970 - ??
It is hard to tell what a person is willing to pay if they are an unopened box collector for the 1974 and older. I think a mint 1971 and 1970 Topps box would blow the doors off of my guestimate.
there is no marketplace. there is no structure. there is only a strong desire to own and hoard, this being said on behalf of those who can afford to.
it's an element of our capitalistic freedom which has catapulted this commodity into outer space. literally.
don't most of you feel that way? i know i do.
however, it doesn't mean that there isn't still room for growth at such incredible prices. otherwise, folks might turn to something else which seems like a better choice.
the "I got it, how bad do ya want it?" philosophy has been prevalent ever since we were kids battling over pictures of our favorite superstars. nothing has changed. not a damn thing.