Looks like Silver could be heading back to $18 before..
Julio
Posts: 2,501 ✭
reversing course and heading back to the twenties. Anyone care to hazard a guess as to how long this continues. Katie bar the door if it ever breaks out of the twenties. JMHO. Take care. jws
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Just gonna keep on stackin'
the "inflation report" says prices are up 7 or 10 or 15% since 2011 on food and energy and everything else we buy, yet silver has fallen over 50%?
that's not hedging inflation nor protecting my purchasing power, it's me losing money, pure and simple.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Money better placed elsewhere in todays time. Silver and gold old news.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Starting to think about unstacking the silver and putting the funds into something that goes up and stays up.
the "inflation report" says prices are up 7 or 10 or 15% since 2011 on food and energy and everything else we buy, yet silver has fallen over 50%?
that's not hedging inflation nor protecting my purchasing power, it's me losing money, pure and simple.
That's not asset allocation, unless you make a decision to get out entirely. In fact, it's the opposite. I'm just sayin'.
As far as the direction and momentum, it's the same until it changes and it hasn't changed either direction or momentum. It all comes down to "why are you invested in silver?"
There are numerous reasons for being in silver and it behooves one to remember why you are in it and then to determine if the reasons are still valid.
Well? Are they? In my opinion, silver is a viable alternative to a dollar that is obviously being trashed. When will it matter? Good question! I don't know the answer to that one.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>oil price direction is your indicator, for now >>
Then why is it not in the $30+ range, with oil over $100 a barrel? I believe that's a poor indicator...demand would be a more accurate indicator and demand is still substantially down.
<< <i>Price watching serves buyers well.... other than that, long term patience is key. Cheers, RickO >>
Good point---buy on the dips and hold for the long term.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Oh well, it's not so precious any more
I have no doubt whatsoever that they can look at the order book and manipulate the pricing at will. If they can harvest some orders and hurt the little guy while reducing demand, they certainly will do it. No conspiracy, just reality about how these markets are run. It's never been much different.
It doesn't take much change in demand to move the silver market because it is pretty small in the scheme of things. What's the total value of all the silver that's accounted for in the markets? 1 billion oz x $20/oz. Let's review, one guy, Bernie Madoff, relatively small potatoes compared to a typical US Treasury offering, or Goldman Sachs, or JP Morgue - hung his clients out for $50 billion.
Silver can do interesting things when the market gets compressed and people decide that they "need" it.
I knew it would happen.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Im still stacking regardless >>
same here. no harm doing that as well
I know the 'stackers' are in it for the long haul but when we were over $40, that would seem like the perfect time to get out and see some profit since I could only assume most stackers purchased the majority of their holdings at well under $20 in the first place. Maybe you were thinking it would go higher? I would like to hear your thoughts.
Currency Wants: Any note with serial number 00000731
<< <i>
<< <i>Im still stacking regardless >>
same here. no harm doing that as well >>
Yeah, if you are going to stack…buying now when it is in a bear market is the time!
Seems, however, some people tend to come out of the woodwork and buy/stack only when prices are soaring.
The old herd(or lemming) mentality I guess.
<< <i>Why? I have always been curious about the stacking mentality. Isn't the point, or at least one of the major points, of buying silver to turn in in to a profit? I am sure most of you have been stacking for quite a while. Why didn't you sell it all when it went over $40 to realize a nice gain? Admittedly, I own very little silver. I would love to add a lot more but I just can't see buying at even $18 when it has the "potential" to go even lower. I guess what I am doing is trying to cover myself for any major drop in price. When it was at $30, I was saying the same thing. At that time, I thought that $20 would be my buying range. Now that we have been here for a while, I have changed my thoughts again. I don't think it will ever get back to $10 or under but it might get close. If I bought at $10-15 and it did drop lower, my losses wouldn't be as bad to me.
I know the 'stackers' are in it for the long haul but when we were over $40, that would seem like the perfect time to get out and see some profit since I could only assume most stackers purchased the majority of their holdings at well under $20 in the first place. Maybe you were thinking it would go higher? I would like to hear your thoughts. >>
It seems to me you are "thinking" of attempting market timing.
Usually a bad idea.
You can get lucky a few times but eventually you will get hurt.
JMHO.
Congratulations!
<< <i>Well seems as if we are split as a group; some wishing to move on to perhaps a better return than Silver and others who will keep on stacking. While I have added almost nothing to my holdings in quite awhile I haven't sold any since the last run chasing $50.00. While I did not catch the top I have no regrets. I sold 1/2 of what I had and have held the rest. I will start going underwater at 16.00, and would suffer major regrets at $13.00. Could it go to thirteen and below, sure, am I going to sell; not likely. Might not make economic sense, or get the most bang for my buck, but holding silver helps me sleep better and contributes to my sense of well being. That my friend is worth far more than a better ROI. Take care. jws >>
Bingo! I did similar. Sold a lot at ~$30+ on the way up and then held onto about 30%. Never sold it all, and I am ok with that.
I did buy the 2014 SAEs, on sale, for $460 recently, and, again, I am ok with that as well.
I still have a few rolls from when silver was <$10.
I am not buying right now....I look at it like stocks.....you DO want to cost-average, but you DON'T want to keep catching a falling knife.
I see a lot of people rationalizing their actions for others. I don't get that. Who cares? Do what you feel comfortable with, but, like stocks, I won't try to time the bottom, but I won't toss money in while it is still going down or very likely to go down. It would be different if I were a dealer or immediate flipper but I am not. What I buy, I keep for awhile and, if prices go up nicely like they did a few years ago, then I'll sell.
Keep some, sell some, don't rationalize by saying "cost-averaging" no matter the "cost" when you are always talking about low costs.
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
I can answer your questions from my own perspective. Other opinions may vary. Yes, one of the major goals is to realize an obscenely humongous gain.
I am sure most of you have been stacking for quite a while. Why didn't you sell it all when it went over $40 to realize a nice gain?
I sold some at $36, but only because I wanted to finance something else. It had not too much to do with the price at that moment. It had more to do with a Large Cent that I couldn't live without.
Admittedly, I own very little silver. I would love to add a lot more but I just can't see buying at even $18 when it has the "potential" to go even lower. I guess what I am doing is trying to cover myself for any major drop in price.
There aren't any guarantees - in either direction. Sorry, there just aren't.
When it was at $30, I was saying the same thing.
That's interesting, because it says something about your risk adversity, and that's not necessarily a bad thing. It's not an indicator of your ability to time anything, though.
At that time, I thought that $20 would be my buying range. Now that we have been here for a while, I have changed my thoughts again. I don't think it will ever get back to $10 or under but it might get close. If I bought at $10-15 and it did drop lower, my losses wouldn't be as bad to me.
All true. Exactly correct. However, you will have the same type of thinking if and when silver takes off and makes it over $40/oz or higher. If you are worried about $20/oz, you will be 4X more concerned at $40/oz. Trust me on that. It's good to review your analysis from time to time, but try to keep your emotions out of it.
I know the 'stackers' are in it for the long haul but when we were over $40, that would seem like the perfect time to get out and see some profit since I could only assume most stackers purchased the majority of their holdings at well under $20 in the first place.
See above. There are NO guarantees. It's the same piece of metal at $20 that it was at $40. Only your perspective is changed.
Maybe you were thinking it would go higher? I would like to hear your thoughts.
I think that the dollar is being screwed with, to our disadvantage. If you like silver, buy it in small increments and let it accumulate. That's the least risky proposition, and it's a proven financial strategy that minimizes one type of risk called "market risk". It's also a hedge against "sovereign default risk". That's most of what really applies here.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
<< <i>Im still stacking regardless >>
same here. no harm doing that as well >>
Unless it continues lower.
Unless it underperforms relative to other assets.
Unless it does not provide a hedge against inflation.
Ect.
But if you can afford to hold for 10-40 years then I am confident the price will be higher. Whether it proves to provide insurance, protection, or outperforms other assets remains to be seen and is highly debatable.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Unless it underperforms relative to other assets.
Unless it does not provide a hedge against inflation.
And unless you know these things will occur with certainty.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Unless it continues lower.
Unless it underperforms relative to other assets.
Unless it does not provide a hedge against inflation.
And unless you know these things will occur with certainty. >>
Relative asset valuation is a highly certain strategy.
However, a little comparison of asset classes over ones lifetime will show that each perform similarly. Make buy and sell decisions based on the volatility of this relative performance. Unfortunately, right now we are at a point at which almost all major asset classes have a similar return over the last 50 years.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>my shadowbox of silver looks just as pretty now as it did when silver was $50 >>
Yes and also just a shadow of what it used to be worth...
That's just mean to say.
<< <i>Love to see $12 again
yeah I'd love to see Google at 10 bucks a share and California beach front property at 50000 an acre
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry