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As Stock Rally Falters, Gold Climbs
goldbug15
Posts: 15
Has the stock market rally finally come to an end? How will gold perform in light of stock prices falling?
What are your thoughts?
As Stock Rally Falters, Gold Climbs
What are your thoughts?
As Stock Rally Falters, Gold Climbs
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Gold and the SP-500 are both at the same prices as in December. Blah.
Gold has underperformed most assets over the last year so maybe there will be some relative outperformance this year.
Welcome to the boards. BTW--I used to deal with you on occasion at the ONA show in years past.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I can only speculate on what the markets will do. Others here know for sure.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Buy low and sell high, I learned that right on this board!
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>There are so many uncertainties in the markets right now. We also have yet to really see the effects of implementation lag on QE. I think people might return to gold as a safe haven, especially if inflation starts to creep up. >>
You need to ask yourself, when in the last 60 years has gold ever been more than just a short lived safe haven? Just another commodity subjected to the whims of speculators and or investors.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Totally agree here.
I have no idea where markets will go and neither does anyone else.
Some seem to be often in error but never in doubt when pontificating about about market direction!
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
<< <i>gold hitting 1275 today, time for a hit on gold.
It was $1600+ this time last year, how many more hits can my gold holdings take?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>
<< <i>gold hitting 1275 today, time for a hit on gold.
It was $1600+ this time last year, how many more hits can my gold holdings take? >>
How many more can you take?
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
<< <i>
<< <i>There are so many uncertainties in the markets right now. We also have yet to really see the effects of implementation lag on QE. I think people might return to gold as a safe haven, especially if inflation starts to creep up. >>
You need to ask yourself, when in the last 60 years has gold ever been more than just a short lived safe haven? Just another commodity subjected to the whims of speculators and or investors. >>
Not even a fair comparison since gold was essentially fixed in price up to 1971 (ie 42 years ago....not 60 years). Gold has tended to follow the commodity cycles. Though it wasn't allowed to do that very well from 1993-2001 when the Rubin and Summers team (ie strong dollar policy) supported the gold carry trade and did whatever they could to undermine gold during this period. Then there's the London Gold Pool from 1962-1968 and its modern equivalent from 1993-2001. Essentially over 50 years of various types of gold supression. All investments (including stocks) are subjected to the whims of speculators, investors, and HF trading algo computers. How soon we forgot that it took stocks 25 years to recover their 1929 highs....yet everyone is quick to remind gold bugs that it took gold 28 years for gold to take out the 1980 highs. If one stretches their minds a little bit they should look at silver which doesn't get quite the govt attention that gold receives. Silver rallied from the 1940's up to 1980....a rally of 32-35 years though most people seem to only remember 1979-1980. Silver's final rally leg back then was from 1962-1980. 50c to $50 over that period sounds like a "safe haven" to me. Gold would have done the same thing if left to normal market supply and demand and not been part of the official monetary system. But the London Gold Pool cut short those first 8 years. One has to love the 100-200 yr "analysis" done on gold when it's price has been basically fixed for all but the last 40 years or so along with US citizens finally being given full license to buy bullion gold in 1974. Currencies will need to be devalued and/or reset in the near future. Gold will have a final say in that.
And, of course, no one has ever heard of a wealthy person who made most of their money in the stock market or real estate, and there are a plethora of self-made "gold flippers"
except, of course, those who make money by buying wholesale and selling retail, after adding some perceived asthetic or sentimental value to the metal, by some combination of artistically changing its form, putting it in "holders" (such as light blue velvet baggies, or plastic slabs with a number and some limiting-edition implying words such as a brand name or high grade or "early release", and also by advertising the wares and promoting their acquisition as investments.
but, of course, gold is not unique in that aspect, all business transform material to "add value" to sell the finished goods for a profit
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>Of course, gold in the form of jewelry has been bought and sold both "retail" and at pawn/spot/melt value throughout history including from 1933 through 1971.
And, of course, no one has ever heard of a wealthy person who made most of their money in the stock market or real estate, and there are a plethora of self-made "gold flippers"
except, of course, those who make money by buying wholesale and selling retail, after adding some perceived asthetic or sentimental value to the metal, by some combination of artistically changing its form, putting it in "holders" (such as light blue velvet baggies, or plastic slabs with a number and some limiting-edition implying words such as a brand name or high grade or "early release", and also by advertising the wares and promoting their acquisition as investments.
but, of course, gold is not unique in that aspect, all business transform material to "add value" to sell the finished goods for a profit >>
The list of retail gold buyers getting scrap gold jewelry at wholesale levels is negligible. Most gold jewelry (>90%?) is sold at sizable premiums to spot....at least here in the USA. That's not a very good way to invest in gold. Buying $20 gold pieces in the late 1960's at $38-$42 would have been a lot less costly. Those same wealthy persons over the past 200 years stayed that way by getting out of the stock market at the appropriate times and parking their money in treasuries, cash, and gold. Even the FRN is a value added item. It costs a couple cents to print up a $20 FRN and nothing to add it to the US debt. The ultmate in "value added." What is somewhat hard to find is a person who made their wealth in the stock market and/or real estate and then kept it all by staying fully invested during ensuing corrections. The RE and SM logic is all based on the theory that the explosion in credit and debt that began by 1982 will continue on forever. People forget that there are long term economic cycles in play. Guys like Buffet, Soros, & Co. happened to come along during the greatest 40 year expansion in credit and debt in the history of the world. It's not likely we get another 40 years like that. More likely is a sharp regression to the mean as soon as those big boyz can complete the final hand off most of this stuff to J6P & Co.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
<< <i>
The trading bots must not study history.
<< <i>
The scale on the right goes from 150 to 400, or 2.5X
The scale on the left goes from 12400 to 18000 1.45X
I guess the first point is, how about scaling them proportionally, so a percentage change can be compared? But I guess by scaling the axes correctly, it' wouldn't be so "scary"?
Secondly, we ARE talking about an index that went from about 250 to about 15,000, over the years following the scare, right?
Over what time period is that scary? Oh, during and after the plunge following a blow-off top from a bubble mania? yes, that's scary, as any recent PM investor is quite aware
That said, the stock market has been due to correct after a strong run. No secret. It could even continue to correct.
But what will the DJIA be 85 or so years from now? (1929-2014 is 85 years)
about 900,000?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>
oops! where'd the picture go??
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Now I BELEVE in PM but,,,,,,, the timeline is all that I need to figure out.
GrandAm
"Lord Overstone said it best. “No warning can save people determined to grow suddenly rich.”
Case in point– CYNK Technology Corp, a listed company that as of this morning has a market capitalization in excess of $1 BILLION. According to official filings, the social media development company had one employee, no website, no revenue, no product, and no assets. What has effectively united this company with prudent investors is today’s central banker."
No bubble here, keep on moving.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
<< <i>oops! where'd the picture go?? >>
Photobucket Spring Cleaning.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Yellen recently stated that "it's not the FED's job to pop bubbles." Interesting that Yellen confirms the bubble. As always, watch what the FED does, not what it says.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
<< <i>The central bank’s central bank advises to go ahead and pop the equity bubble.
Yellen recently stated that "it's not the FED's job to pop bubbles." Interesting that Yellen confirms the bubble. As always, watch what the FED does, not what it says.
>>
The Fed has been running WOT for 6 years now. There is no sign that will end this year or next. Extraordinary monetary stimulus by the world's CBs are the new normal.
<< <i>
<< <i>The central bank’s central bank advises to go ahead and pop the equity bubble.
Yellen recently stated that "it's not the FED's job to pop bubbles." Interesting that Yellen confirms the bubble. As always, watch what the FED does, not what it says.
>>
The Fed has been running WOT for 6 years now. There is no sign that will end this year or next. Extraordinary monetary stimulus by the world's CBs are the new normal. >>
Why in God's name would the Fed pop a bubble that they helped create? It's not as if they didn't know this wouldn't happen. They're not nearly as stupid as many want to make them out to be. In fact, they probably have all kinds of scenarios mapped out for whatever they think may happen. Their contingency plans are in place, it's more a matter of what contingency takes place that will make them act. They know perfectly well they created all the bubbles...and so do the rest of the central banks.
Do "investors" and "speculators" not play any role in bubbles? Don't "panicky sellers" contribute to their deflation?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
The Fed may provide the tools with which a bubble can form but it does not create them. It is the markets responsibility to pop bubbles and they have been quite efficient in that matter historically.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I read the above link 3 times and did not see where Yellen confirmed any bubble. Those looking for a bubble should research the topics on this board to get a better understanding of what a bubble looks like. The stock market, while on an extended run, is nowhere close to being a bubble. Does it really look like 1999?
The Fed may provide the tools with which a bubble can form but it does not create them. It is the markets responsibility to pop bubbles and they have been quite efficient in that matter historically. >>
Yellen: "It's not the FED's job to pop bubbles."
Cohodk: "There are no bubbles."
Me: "What bubbles is Yellen referring to?"
Since FED provides "tools with which a bubble can form" these tools (policy) can also be used to "convince" the market to pop these bubbles. One must ask "why have powerful FED policy if it is not designed and implemented to achieve specific results?"
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
<< <i>
<< <i>I read the above link 3 times and did not see where Yellen confirmed any bubble. Those looking for a bubble should research the topics on this board to get a better understanding of what a bubble looks like. The stock market, while on an extended run, is nowhere close to being a bubble. Does it really look like 1999?
The Fed may provide the tools with which a bubble can form but it does not create them. It is the markets responsibility to pop bubbles and they have been quite efficient in that matter historically. >>
Yellen: "It's not the FED's job to pop bubbles."
Cohodk: "There are no bubbles."
Me: "What bubbles is Yellen referring to?" >>
Yupppp! no Bubbles or Inflation to see here folks... move along.
It's not the state police's job to catch space aliens.
There are no space aliens.
What aliens are the police referring to?
The hypothetical ones posed by the question.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
The Buyback Tax Ruse
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Update: Up 125% as market close approaches.
Update 2: Up 149% at market close.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Yellen did not say she saw any bubbles. Neither do I. If the dow hits 30,000 by end of 2015 then I might think bubbling.
Inflation and money supply are in a bubble however. If they popped would that be good or bad for PMs?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>You see, fundamentals are meaningless. >>
Sure indication of a bubble. Common sense (and fundamentals) would tell you to run from a company like CYNK. Bubblenomics say otherwise. Living proof that markets are out of touch with reality.
Could this have anything to do with monetary policy?
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
The bubbles in the banking system are supported by taxpayer debt to bail out the poorly-run banks who used leverage to insure that their annual 7-figure bonuses and/or golden parachutes would be paid. Nothing has changed.
The transfer of wealth is a skimming operation that benefits the big banks through free QE handouts and harms folks who work for a living and pay their taxes. The money creation isn't used to build businesses or create jobs, it's simply a transfer of wealth via the IRS and political system that has always been in bed with the banks.
Let's be clear about that.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>What are the police doing to catch space aliens?
It's not the state police's job to catch space aliens.
There are no space aliens.
What aliens are the police referring to?
The hypothetical ones posed by the question. >>
Did you visit the one of the legal pot shops opened in Washington today?...... you are sounding like one of the buyers interviewed by the reporters today!