My prediction for gold tomorrow
jmski52
Posts: 22,862 ✭✭✭✭✭
Today, gold had it's "best" day in recent memory, up over $25.00, possibly because of fears that Argentina's currency crisis will have ripple effects on other fiat.
I'm firmly in the conspiracy camp that gold gets stomped tomorrow. Just because.
Your thoughts?
I'm firmly in the conspiracy camp that gold gets stomped tomorrow. Just because.
Your thoughts?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I knew it would happen.
I knew it would happen.
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Comments
<< <i>Today, gold had it's "best" day in recent memory, up over $25.00, possibly because of fears that Argentina's currency crisis will have ripple effects on other fiat.
I'm firmly in the conspiracy camp that gold gets stomped tomorrow. Just because.
Your thoughts? >>
GS says to bail while you can. Get out while the gettings good.
<< <i>Today, gold had it's "best" day in recent memory, up over $25.00, possibly because of fears that Argentina's currency crisis will have ripple effects on other fiat.
I'm firmly in the conspiracy camp that gold gets stomped tomorrow. Just because.
Your thoughts? >>
The timing band for gold to start its normal monthly descent is about at hand. And the PTB should take advantage of next week's SOTU Address, FOMC meeting, Treasury Note Auctions, and end of month Options Expiration
to play some games between Tuesday-Friday. So if they start early tomorrow, same old same old and within the usual window. The fact that gold didn't take out the previous short time high of $1268 and silver is lagging badly
not even getting back to the $20.40-$20.60 "capping" range ($20.31 today's high) is not a sign of strength. GSR trending higher during this January has been keeping some pressure on gold and lots of pressure on silver. Gold
might still slither up a bit higher into the $1270's or even $1280's. But by Tuesday afternoon it could be singing a different tune. Some of the miners starting to show topping patterns, some others are still hanging in there near
the highs. I suspect GDX and GDXJ will lead gold down this time. They led it up by several days. Miners have 22 days into the current cycle peak which is very long for them. Yellen takes over on February 1st so I think they're
going to ensure the SM doesn't tank before she takes over. And the flip side of that is gold not flying $40-$50 higher all of a sudden. Can't upstage the POTUS or FED next week.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I knew it would happen.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I think we'll have to wait until the next cycle to find out.
I knew it would happen.
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
<< <i>I don't know by how much but I'm planning on 2014 will definitely be a 'plus' year for both gold and silver. >>
Very possible as the expectations for gold and silver have become very negative.
I am a stock market guy and I was watching Union Pacific make a new all time high yesterday.
Back in Dec 1999, UNP was trading below $22.
The big stocks were Microsoft, Intel, and Cisco. While UNP is up 700%, those tech darlings
are around half their prices of 14 years ago.
In the long run, the consensus is almost always wrong.
<< <i>In the long run, the consensus is almost always wrong. >>
One of the most accurate statement ever to be posted on this board.
It appears that the Taper is giving the stock market a hissy fit. Let's see how long Janet can hold out.
I knew it would happen.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
He was advising to be on the lookout for a $25 down move in gold today ...
Just as in 2010 and 2011, if you had gains in metals, it was smart to take some profit and build capital reserves and/or diversify, now is an excellent time to trim successful stock positions. I've been raising cash allocation by selling big stock winners for over 6 months and am about to sell additional stocks.. as soon as some of them go up just a liiiitle biiit moooore...
will be buying more gold and platinum this year with some of the proceeds. I have more bulky silver than I want, and will be looking for an opportunity to lighten up on Ag
Speaking as more of a swing and wave trader and longer term investor, I do not tend to try to micro-time moves or daytrade, leaving that to those more suited
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
The market drop with only a limited "taper" implies massive and continued money creation, and it also implies massive and continued hammering of precious metals until they (TPTB) totally lose control. My observation is that the stock market rally is over unless they inflate again ***soon***. It's that simple. The part about hammering precious metals is just more of the same, and I really did think they'd hammer them today - but they didn't. Clearly, I was wrong about today but the stock market is telling me that I'm right to hold pms.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>The part about hammering precious metals is just more of the same, and I really did think they'd hammer them today - but they didn't. Clearly, I was wrong about today but the stock market is telling me that I'm right to hold pms. >>
silver took a nice blow.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>The part about hammering precious metals is just more of the same, and I really did think they'd hammer them today - but they didn't. Clearly, I was wrong about today but the stock market is telling me that I'm right to hold pms. >>
You got the trend right as they hammered silver and did a crush on the gold and silver miners into late morning. GSR did a nice move higher. The fact that gold did a dead cat bounce past the $1268 former high to draw in more suckers doesn't change the operation. One day closer to next week's heavily bearish PM set up with silver and miners already on the run.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I used to so enjoy hearing the predictions and technicals... now If you REALLY want to hear some talking heads... click the link!
Gentleman...
It's all about what the people want...
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>$1270 is a major breaking point for gold. >>
It is when it occurs during NY trading hours. Last time around there was a pretty good resistance band from $1276-$1280. We really have to see this band taken out to open up the way to $1325-$1329.
Even if gold moves silver is not cooperating and acting bearishly. Gold could fly a lot easier if silver were responding.
<< <i>Today, gold had it's "best" day in recent memory, up over $25.00, possibly because of fears that Argentina's currency crisis will have ripple effects on other fiat.
I'm firmly in the conspiracy camp that gold gets stomped tomorrow. Just because.
Your thoughts? >>
You need to disassociate your self from that camp
<< <i>Expect Gold to pop on Monday. We are seeing a mini meltdown in the 2 1/2 world economies. >>
Which way?
<< <i>
<< <i>The part about hammering precious metals is just more of the same, and I really did think they'd hammer them today - but they didn't. Clearly, I was wrong about today but the stock market is telling me that I'm right to hold pms. >>
You got the trend right as they hammered silver and did a crush on the gold and silver miners into late morning. GSR did a nice move higher. The fact that gold did a dead cat bounce past the $1268 former high to draw in more suckers doesn't change the operation. One day closer to next week's heavily bearish PM set up with silver and miners already on the run. >>
40 cents an ounce is getting hammered?
yeah, we get a lot of hyperbole on here. 40 cents is getting "hammered", 0.8% inflation is "hyper", the economy is "dead", the dollar is "collapsing" and America is "toast"
there are many examples, but you get the point. time to "pop" on over for some more coffee before the machine has a "meltdown"
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Irrespective of the manipulation issue, 40 cents is 2% whether you consider that to be hammered is an opinion; 0.8% inflation is bogus and we know that the real numbers are higher but I haven't seen anyone on this forum claim hyperinflation yet; the economy is "dead" if you're out of a job; the dollar isn't collapsing compared to other currencies but if you don't think unfunded liabilities are a problem, please tell me how the debt question is going to be resolved if not by taxing and cutting benefits (especially in medical); America isn't toast compared to Argentina, Spain or Greece but if you think 47% drawing government freebies is a good thing, just wait until it hits 60%.
There isn't a pill to cure what's happening, Baley. Baleyville continues to shrink, and having the Fed pump currency isn't helping to "do" anything.
I knew it would happen.
not sure where you're getting that. of course unfunded liabilities are a problem. obesity, cancer, diabetes, heart disease are problems. pollution, urban decay, and broken families are problems. they always have been and they always will be, at the tail end of certain bell curves. smart, committed people are working very hard to move those curves and ease those problems, and cynical people continue to complain about their efforts. what else is new? I can't "tell you" about the debt problem, just do my thing and let you do yours for the world, and hope everyone else does what they can, too, to give more than we take.
but if you think 47% drawing government freebies is a good thing, just wait until it hits 60%.
again, why would I think a problem is a good thing? Surely not every cent of government spending is "freebies" for lazy disability cheats, is it? I'm all for reducing spending and cutting fraud and waste, of course, because I pay taxes and want it to go to good causes (of which I think local, state, and federal government does actually do some good spending) and certainly would not claim to know more about any of these issues than experts that work on them at the highest levels. If all legitimate retirees are actually "drawing government freebees" when they take social security and medicare payments (my paycheck deductions) and this demographic is growing because of an aging baby boom toward 60%, that's just "how it goes", what do you want to do, cut 'em off? kill em? seriously, lots of people are going to be retiring in the next decades, we all knew this was coming, so here it's starting, so what? what's there to DO, except your best?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
This is true on all ends of the socio-political-economic spectrum.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
<< <i>Expect Gold to pop on Monday. We are seeing a mini meltdown in the 2 1/2 world economies. >>
Which way? >>
Upward. When currencies are sliding anywhere in the world, panic gold buying often ensues which more than offsets the effects of the stronger dollar. Whether it is sustainable is another question.
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<< <i>
<< <i>Expect Gold to pop on Monday. We are seeing a mini meltdown in the 2 1/2 world economies. >>
Which way? >>
Upward. When currencies are sliding anywhere in the world, panic gold buying often ensues which more than offsets the effects of the stronger dollar. Whether it is sustainable is another question. >>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Expect Gold to pop on Monday. We are seeing a mini meltdown in the 2 1/2 world economies. >>
Which way? >>
Upward. When currencies are sliding anywhere in the world, panic gold buying often ensues which more than offsets the effects of the stronger dollar. Whether it is sustainable is another question. >>
do not underestimate the opposing force. The more reason for gold to take a hit come Monday.
May the force be with us.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Expect Gold to pop on Monday. We are seeing a mini meltdown in the 2 1/2 world economies. >>
Which way? >>
Upward. When currencies are sliding anywhere in the world, panic gold buying often ensues which more than offsets the effects of the stronger dollar. Whether it is sustainable is another question. >>
That would be the logical, and no doubt based on past historical events, best answer. However, PM's are now driven by speculators looking for the best return and as far as I can determine, they ain't back yet. My guess, more of the same narrow trading patterns...vacillating between $18.00 - $22.00 for the near term.
For your consideration:
The stock market continues to absorb the inflation being created by the FED. A crash in equities will release inflation.
The FED will sacrifice dollar value to save a crash in US equities.
The FED will continue it's currency fight to keep the dollar low.
Interest rates are not open to FED discussion but further QE is very much on the table and currently a "best option."
"Blowback" is a political term that will very soon be widely recognized in economic circles. I suspect that in the Great Financial Correction the FED has used every tool in the box to postpone for the past five years what is finally upon us. The key indicator will be panic at many levels. This could very well include a hard hit to gold. Cash is fixin' to become the temporary king - the length of its reign will be dermined by the survival rate of it's foreign counterparts.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Expect Gold to pop on Monday. We are seeing a mini meltdown in the 2 1/2 world economies. >>
Which way? >>
Upward. When currencies are sliding anywhere in the world, panic gold buying often ensues which more than offsets the effects of the stronger dollar. Whether it is sustainable is another question. >>
That would be the logical, and no doubt based on past historical events, best answer. However, PM's are now driven by speculators looking for the best return and as far as I can determine, they ain't back yet. My guess, more of the same narrow trading patterns...vacillating between $18.00 - $22.00 for the near term. >>
Gold and Silver are two very different assets in a panic market. Tough for an Indian or Argentine to pack up their life savings in Silver as they are heading out the door.
<< <i>40 cents an ounce is getting hammered? >>
Yes....the chart was technically hammered/painted. Silver was knocked under the key $20.00 level (day's low of $19.72)...a little too close to the last low ($19.65) where a close under that would be quite bearish.
While Friday's close at $19.88 was a save of some sorts, the 3 ema is under the 20 dma. Another 5c to 10c lower (ie a $19.83 or lower close) would have been another nail.
The weekly close was bearish (ie <$20.11). Silver's weekly candle body engulfed the previous 3 weekly bodies, an even more bearish weekly ending. Daily macd and trix managed bearish crosses
today for the first time in 7 weeks. Yes, 40c made that difference. Silver needs a move above $20.30 to get bullish again. A move under $19.65 and it tends to lock in the bearish view. Key upper resistance at $20.60.
Sum it all up and 40c was indeed a hammering considering that gold made a higher high Friday ($1272) on day 18 of this cycle as well as a new 9 week high. Silver getting hit ahead of next week's loaded events week is
not a good thing (silver futures and options expiration next week, FOMC meeting Wed, State the Union address Tuesday, Treasury Auctions Tu-Thurs). Silver lost an rally day on Friday. Now only Monday is left before
the end of month's bearish-leaning events calendar comes into focus. Could silver rally and break out higher next week? Of course. Anything can happen. I just wouldn't place any money on that bet.
Silver chart
Silver miners were hammered today too. Some nasty red candles here. Look at streamer SLW engulfing the last 4 days following an 8 week rally
SLW rallied up to the 200 dma and consolidated under it. It found resistance at the $23-$24 six month gap zone. Point anf Figure chart shows 50% lower to $11.
Like SLW......SLV has a similar gappy zone from $19.75-$20.5 that is providing similar resistance to silver. Once into that range it can fly right up (ie silver $20.60-$21.25).
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Expect Gold to pop on Monday. We are seeing a mini meltdown in the 2 1/2 world economies. >>
Which way? >>
Upward. When currencies are sliding anywhere in the world, panic gold buying often ensues which more than offsets the effects of the stronger dollar. Whether it is sustainable is another question. >>
Well, so far your record of market or PM predictions remain a solid 100%.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Expect Gold to pop on Monday. We are seeing a mini meltdown in the 2 1/2 world economies. >>
Which way? >>
Upward. When currencies are sliding anywhere in the world, panic gold buying often ensues which more than offsets the effects of the stronger dollar. Whether it is sustainable is another question. >>
Well, so far your record of market or PM predictions remain a solid 100%.
I dunno, my market bubble thread was started last Wednesday.
<< <i>$1270 is a major breaking point for gold. >>
foiled again
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I'll start: Gold will drop more on Tues.
Realizing, that almost all short term predictions are contrary indicators, but most of you should know that by now
My guess: $19 silver and $1200 gold sometime between now and noon Wed.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
And today....we know the rest of that story.
If you thought Friday's silver miner candles were ugly....look at today's. And sure enough, silver took at that $19.65 level.
I like the way $1250 gold held up today. Silver could reach $19.00 though as it's been the weaker of the pair. Gold is strongest (so far) among the miners and silver.
I don't think we get back to $1200 gold. There are a pair a "no-trade" zones from $1206-$1213 and $1237-$1247 where prime time NY wasn't part of the previous action.
And they don't like being left out of the action and stamping it with approval. The latter is a near sure thing by end of the week. Not so sure about $1210ish. SOTUA/FOMC coming to a theater near you.
Silvuh miners
Edit: Just wanted to see what the Snowman looked like.