Gold has just completed a 38.2% retracement of the last move up when it hit the 1308.5 low. Now is a great time to get long gold. Not that it's going to go anywhere very soon, but it is probably headed to $1410-1430 in the next month or two, where it will probably meet resistance.
keep an eye on Ally Financial's recent IPO. Symbol ALLY, they are leaders in auto financing and a profitable side business of marketing their auto repos to wholesalers.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>keep an eye on Ally Financial's recent IPO. Symbol ALLY, they are leaders in auto financing and a profitable side business of marketing their auto repos to wholesalers. >>
Just promise me you won't switch to eating dog food due to the high cost of good salmon, and someday die some crazy old dogfood-eating fool with a giant hoard of gold.
(anyway, being salmon, wouldn't it be cat food?
My dog eats salmon, it's good for her coat.
Thanks for the book reference, rr.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Notes from my morning newsletter: Large speculators are slowly accumulating a net-long position in Palladium futures, according to the Commitment of Traders report. Non-commercial traders, mainly large speculators and commodity funds, added 70 new net-long positions during the week ending April 1st. This brings the overall net-long position to 23,309 contracts, which is a large position for this relatively thinly traded market, but the current size of the position still leaves room for the further accumulation of long positions before the position becomes burdensome. Commercial hedgers are on the other side of the trade, with a net-short position of 25,627 contracts. ... On the demand side of the equation, analysts point to the continued increase in auto demand in China, and the growing need to help contain the nation’s pollution issues should help to increase the demand for Palladium, which is an important component in catalytic convertors. In fact, over 70% of the demand for Palladium is for use in pollution controls of gasoline powered motor vehicles. Unlike Gold, which made its all-time highs less than 3 years ago, Palladium prices peaked back in 2001, when export disruptions out of Russia, due to mostly political reasons, sent prices above $1,000 per ounce. Déjà vu anyone?
Commercials have been excessively net short silver, palladium, and platinum for many months now. The large specs have the big net long counter-positions. Just tells me these over-sized future's positions can sit out there for a while. Who can say which position is going to be the "smart" money?
The large specs have the big net long counter-positions
I've found when large traders are "excessively" -as you may say- long, that prices have reached some sort of peak. Regarding palladium, the size of the traders' long positions have held very steady over the last year and a half, just as have the commercials' short positions.
Changed the thread title to apply to the whole year. There just isn't enough activity anymore, gold is still to difficult to trade until it begins to trend again, and that could be a while. It may trend as soon as late June/July, but probably more consolidation in store for most of the rest of the year. Here's the long term monthly chart, the long term bull trend is still very much intact with very solid support at $1225. The lines depict 38.2% retracements.
<< <i>Where is that long term chart of Walmart I always post? >>
Why would any of us know? >>
If you wanted to know what gold was going to do for the next decade you would.
This weekend I will post another chart- not of Walmart- for discussion. I already know it will be dismissed in its entirety, but that's OK as it reinforces my belief in the psychology of markets. We may always think "this time is different" but humans are always the same and react predictably.
This entire series if threads is a great case study. There was so much activity when the price was rising. Everyone was a genius. Bull markets do that. But now gold is boring, nothing to trade. Funny thing is now is when traders make money and set themselves apart from the average "I'm a genius bull market wannabe trader". Do you want to learn to sail the ship or just go along for the ride?
<< <i>Where is that long term chart of Walmart I always post? >>
Why would any of us know? >>
If you wanted to know what gold was going to do for the next decade you would. >>
Do you think any of the people here have the time to spend scouring the web for your postings of charts? Why not just post them? Do you use the same username in other forums and if so, which ones? I'm not looking for an answer, I'm not going to go searching for your chart postings, and I doubt anyone else is either.
<< <i>This weekend I will post another chart- not of Walmart- for discussion. >>
Ah, because you're still expecting us to spend hours looking for your Walmart chart post? Do we get a prize if we find it?
<< <i>I already know it will be dismissed in its entirety, but that's OK as it reinforces my belief in the psychology of markets. We may always think "this time is different" but humans are always the same and react predictably. >>
We can't dismiss it if you don't post it. How about the psychology of playing games with forum participants?
<< <i>This entire series if threads is a great case study. There was so much activity when the price was rising. Everyone was a genius. Bull markets do that. But now gold is boring, nothing to trade. Funny thing is now is when traders make money and set themselves apart from the average "I'm a genius bull market wannabe trader". Do you want to learn to sail the ship or just go along for the ride? >>
Well, trending markets are easier to trade if you are riding the trend, be it up or down. Trading consolidations is different. But who says a good trader has to be good at both? Why not just find another vehicle that is trending? The only thing that marks a good trader is how much money he makes. Just because we only discuss gold here doesn't mean we aren't trading other things. This forum isn't appropriate for extensive discussion of other commodities.
<< <i>Where is that long term chart of Walmart I always post? >>
Why would any of us know? >>
If you wanted to know what gold was going to do for the next decade you would.
This weekend I will post another chart- not of Walmart- for discussion. I already know it will be dismissed in its entirety, but that's OK as it reinforces my belief in the psychology of markets. We may always think "this time is different" but humans are always the same and react predictably.
This entire series if threads is a great case study. There was so much activity when the price was rising. Everyone was a genius. Bull markets do that. But now gold is boring, nothing to trade. Funny thing is now is when traders make money and set themselves apart from the average "I'm a genius bull market wannabe trader". Do you want to learn to sail the ship or just go along for the ride? >>
What is the "value" of trading? Every trade benefits the broker. Every winning trade benefits the IRS . Is there a benefit to society , excluding the parasites and middlemen , from trading ?
If we had sound money regular people wouldn't feel the need to trade. They would invest in themselves and the parasites would starve.
<< <i>If we had sound money regular people wouldn't feel the need to trade. They would invest in themselves and the parasites would starve. >>
People still traded back when gold and silver were money. People have always traded. I think people do what they think they can make the most money at, regardless of the prevailing currency.
<< <i>If we had sound money regular people wouldn't feel the need to trade. They would invest in themselves and the parasites would starve. >>
People still traded back when gold and silver were money. People have always traded. I think people do what they think they can make the most money at, regardless of the prevailing currency.
Here's a chart to consider: >>
PC, could you please explain your interpretation of this chart?
<< <i>If we had sound money regular people wouldn't feel the need to trade. They would invest in themselves and the parasites would starve. >>
People still traded back when gold and silver were money. People have always traded. I think people do what they think they can make the most money at, regardless of the prevailing currency.
Here's a chart to consider: >>
Not sure if that chart confirms your view. It appears to be a downward trend for gold in any form or manner.
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
<< <i>Changed the thread title to apply to the whole year. There just isn't enough activity anymore, gold is still to difficult to trade until it begins to trend again, and that could be a while. It may trend as soon as late June/July, but probably more consolidation in store for most of the rest of the year. Here's the long term monthly chart, the long term bull trend is still very much intact with very solid support at $1225. The lines depict 38.2% retracements. >>
Here is a monthly chart that covers about an 11 year period. Looks like the long term bull trend is still very much intact. Yes/no?
This is the same "thing" over the next 12 years.
Expect a similar (not exact) pattern to develop for gold over the next decade. Be happy if it breaks to new highs sooner, but tempered expectations will alleviate much angst, resentment, fear, disillusionment, and just plain grief over the next decade.
This chart depicts an asset class that is now 50% higher than 14 years ago. Anybody want to guess what it is?
A sideways market is still a trending market and very tradeable. Should we just forget about trading gold because it doesnt go up everyday? That isnt trading. And we we dont like the sideways trend in gold then why not trade other commodities that have been very "easy" trades such as grains, which have been mentioned.
What kind of trading strategy is "im not gonna trade it because it isnt going up"?
<< <i>PC, could you please explain your interpretation of this chart? >>
With that chart alone you can only see that comex inventories are MUCH MUCH lower than they have been in a very, very long time and back when the world and economy were much different. All other discussion would speculation, although one thing that occurs to me is that they are not in a position to deliver any serious quantities of gold any longer, what I would perhaps call a "supply void." This may or may not ever be a real issue. What we do know is that worldwide, gold demand is bigger than it ever has been and central banks are buying - not selling - physical gold. So if demand stays near where is has been, where will the supply come from? It can't be the Comex. And not that the Comex is the only source of gold, but with dwindling supply, prices must rise, eventually. But other questions to ask are why inventories have been allowed to get so low, and why Comex wouldn't take advantage of current pricing to load back up. What do they know or believe? Consider also that the the gold ETFs have very low inventories now as well, so any run in gold could be amplified by the "supply void" unless it can come from somewhere other than Comex, but I don't know where that would be.
<< <i>A sideways market is still a trending market and very tradeable. Should we just forget about trading gold because it doesnt go up everyday? That isnt trading. And we we dont like the sideways trend in gold then why not trade other commodities that have been very "easy" trades such as grains, which have been mentioned.
What kind of trading strategy is "im not gonna trade it because it isnt going up"? >>
Are these comments to me? Because I never said you couldn't trade a sideways market. I said: trending markets are easier to trade if you are riding the trend, be it up or down. Trading consolidations is different. But who says a good trader has to be good at both? Nothing wrong with trading consolidations, if you are good at it. But it is not the same as trading a trend. If you're good at either one or both, more power to you. I'm not that good at trading these volatile consolidations, although I do find some minor trends some times to ride. You have to pick your spots.
<< <i>And we we dont like the sideways trend in gold then why not trade other commodities that have been very "easy" trades such as grains, which have been mentioned. >>
And I did suggest trading other things: Why not just find another vehicle that is trending? ... Just because we only discuss gold here doesn't mean we aren't trading other things. This forum isn't appropriate for extensive discussion of other commodities.
Here's a long term monthly chart with some momentum indicators that would appear to indicate a bottom has been established in the last few months, although as always there is no reason why things have to turn around any time soon or could not go lower:
<< <i>Interest in trading PMs sure has dropped. >>
I'm interested. Whatcha buying and whatcha selling?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Thought I would revive this thread since it looks like we are near to some great opportunities. First, the SP500 (SPX below) sure looks and feels like it is ready for a decent pullback, if not the start of a huge fall as I've been waiting for for a while. This chart is from David Nichols. I have 1960 as a target for the SP500, and then I'm sure we're looking at a minimum of a 38.2% retrace of that last move up which will be substantial. I plan to open a short position at 1960 area. I had intended to post this chart a few weeks ago as I could see the breakdown coming the day before this, but I was too busy to take advantage of it and never found a good entry point. I think we're still looking at another test of 1220-1230 and possibly a brief overshoot under 1200, at which point I think it will be a back up the truck opportunity because it isn't going any lower! This type of route is typical for June. Everything is lining up where I think we're close to a capitulation where SP500 is going to top out, gold is going to bottom out, and we'll see a change of direction. Gold has consolidated enough, any time now in the next few months it should be ready to go again. I'm still not sure it's going to be fast, but any run should have gold back over $1400 easily. Here's a nice monthly chart showing the 38.2% retracement in the monthly time frame. Most other commodities will probably follow. I think another interesting vehicle to watch right now is Bitcoin... it could be ready to run over $1000 again from current levels.
<< <i>Interest in trading PMs sure has dropped. >>
Not here. I have an interest every day… then again, I also have a greater interet in buying and holding stocks. Divesting is good. A huckster; not so good.
Alongside the decline in gold prices to levels not seen since January is a sharp fall in speculative long bets on the metal to levels not seen since January. According to CFTC data (as reflected in this great graphic from Reuters), pros are net long 51K gold contracts, nearly 100K less than 3 months ago.
Alongside the decline in gold prices to levels not seen since January is a sharp fall in speculative long bets on the metal to levels not seen since January. According to CFTC data (as reflected in this great graphic from Reuters), pros are net long 51K gold contracts, nearly 100K less than 3 months ago.
A good point. You always want to buy something when no one else wants it, and I have to say that I think we are nearing that point. There is always going to be enthusiasm for gold on the PCGS message boards, but I would have to say the sentiment really is at a low.
Alongside the decline in gold prices to levels not seen since January is a sharp fall in speculative long bets on the metal to levels not seen since January. According to CFTC data (as reflected in this great graphic from Reuters), pros are net long 51K gold contracts, nearly 100K less than 3 months ago.
Also going short tonight with gold at 1262. $4 stop loss on this one as I think there's a small chance it could run through the retracement level, but my expectations are that it's going to re-test the 1225 are this one last time.
<< <i>Opened a small short position on the SP500. Looking for a 25-30 point retracement where I will bail. >>
Dont you just love it when a plan comes together? >>
Yep, now I just need to time my exit. I had to bail on the short gold position for a small ~$4 loss. The breakout over $1265 is encouraging but I would have felt better and been more predictable to see gold retest $1220 area before heading up. I'm not ready to go long gold yet, although if SP500 breaks below $1920 decisively it might be a sign to go long gold. This turmoil in Iraq is could be the perfect catalyst to set everything in motion.
Just an update, I did exit the SP500 short almost ideally, and also went long. I am about to bail on that position, I think we're going sideways for another week or so.
My short gold position got stopped out. I went long gold last night at $1268 and I'm looking for a move to $1300 where I will probably bail.
Encountered this chart which was interesting, comparing the last big move in gold to this one...
I've had a good string of successes lately. I did exit my SP500 position near the top of the last move. I am unsure of the movement from here so I am staying out for now.
I did exit my long gold position just over $1300 and locked in my gains. I was surprised by the surge well beyond that, and I am encouraged at such a show of strength that I believe this is the beginning of a serious move. I am looking to get long again on a retracement/pullback below 1310 and I'm loading up with a bigger position. I'm not backing up the truck, but I think I'm going to wish I did.
I'll note that yet again, it appears that early/mid-June will mark a multi-month low and turning point for gold.
<< <i>I've had a good string of successes lately. I did exit my SP500 position near the top of the last move. I am unsure of the movement from here so I am staying out for now.
I did exit my long gold position just over $1300 and locked in my gains. I was surprised by the surge well beyond that, and I am encouraged at such a show of strength that I believe this is the beginning of a serious move. I am looking to get long again on a retracement/pullback below 1310 and I'm loading up with a bigger position. I'm not backing up the truck, but I think I'm going to wish I did.
I'll note that yet again, it appears that early/mid-June will mark a multi-month low and turning point for gold. >>
Congratulations on the winning streak. I was surprised by the strength of the gold rally. I closed out three big losers on Thursday, including some short calls on GLD. I'll update my blog (signature link) with my weekly post a bit after Friday's close, and a monthly update by Saturday.
I got my re-entry long gold at 1308, and gold is re-energizing for it's next move. Maybe later this week we'll see some more upside. I'm looking for at least $1360, and if it can break through there that will be a good sign. SP500 looks like it might be in trouble. If ES (SP500 e-mini) doesn't get back above 1950 in short order or declines further, I will be trying to get short.
Added to my long gold position last night on the dip down, added at $1324. I think we might see that level again tonight where it should bounce. Markets probably won't do much Thursday, but Monday/Tues next week gold should be ready to resume its climb.
I probably need to look into investing in the VIX. The VIX is in rare low territory, a long position here should profitable right? It seems so obvious there must be a catch, and I remember reading that investing in VIX futures is not like other vehicles.
But what really looks intriguing right now it Bitcoin. At $645 as I type this, soon to be over $1000.
Gold is now entering day 21 of its climb. GDX and silver will be on day 26. Considering these cycles typically last 20-32 days there's not a whole lot of time for gold to make a peak and then break the uptrend line to make a daily cycle bottom. This has basically been a 21 day rise w/o any appreciable pull back than could be considered a daily cycle low. I saw gold leave behind a wave 3 acceleration gap this afternoon at $1328. If there is no approach back towards that point tonight that could be a problem. I also didn't like the way GDXJ, GLD, and SLV all ended today with gravestone doji candles. The ADP report this morning instantly spanked gold down to $1321. I think that dip will get challenged shortly. NFP and ECB news Thursday morning could swing things. Gold's daily cycle needs to wind down over the next 1-2 weeks so I'm figuring on a pull back at any time. With gaps left from the last rally at $1336 and then $1357 I'm not figuring for gold to get past $1345 if it has one more push in it. GSR seems to have already flipped back as it's way overdue for a 8-10 week peak.....all it's done for the past 10 weeks is drop, that's very uncharacteristic of its movements for the past 3 years. It's also possible GSR is now in a major shift where it's only headed down for quite some time. Will know more once the summer winds down. India is supposed to come out with some news shortly for gold that might lift the current restrictions. That could be the impetus for a top. July 4th weekends have often been turning points for gold in the past.
My long position in gold was a bit early and not optimal, but I think I'm good. Gold looks better now and the pattern should have energy to begin or at least start thinking about resuming its climb. Not necessarily Thursday, but in the next few days. I did add to long positions this morning.
The big multi year SP500 bullish pattern looks to me like it is in its last gasp of energy. 1 or 2 more weeks or grinding upward is left, but I don't think we'll see any new highs. I'm looking to get short big time in the next few weeks.
I assume you're talking about CORN rather than sulfur or anything else.
I know the predictions are for some record harvests. I hate to pretend that I can predict the weather but I think the El Nino weather pattern may wreak havoc on this fall's crop and it is not factored in. Timing will be everything and will be very difficult, but if you can identify the bottom it will probably be a good play to go long at some point. I think gold is done moving for the week, the up trend should resume Mon/Tues next week...
Comments
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>keep an eye on Ally Financial's recent IPO. Symbol ALLY, they are leaders in auto financing and a profitable side business of marketing their auto repos to wholesalers. >>
Ally, formerly known as GMAC...
Yeah, the bailed-out one.
Just promise me you won't switch to eating dog food due to the high cost of good salmon, and someday die some crazy old dogfood-eating fool with a giant hoard of gold.
(anyway, being salmon, wouldn't it be cat food?
My dog eats salmon, it's good for her coat.
Thanks for the book reference, rr.
I knew it would happen.
Notes from my morning newsletter:
Large speculators are slowly accumulating a net-long position in Palladium futures, according to the Commitment of Traders report. Non-commercial traders, mainly large speculators and commodity funds, added 70 new net-long positions during the week ending April 1st. This brings the overall net-long position to 23,309 contracts, which is a large position for this relatively thinly traded market, but the current size of the position still leaves room for the further accumulation of long positions before the position becomes burdensome. Commercial hedgers are on the other side of the trade, with a net-short position of 25,627 contracts.
...
On the demand side of the equation, analysts point to the continued increase in auto demand in China, and the growing need to help contain the nation’s pollution issues should help to increase the demand for Palladium, which is an important component in catalytic convertors. In fact, over 70% of the demand for Palladium is for use in pollution controls of gasoline powered motor vehicles. Unlike Gold, which made its all-time highs less than 3 years ago, Palladium prices peaked back in 2001, when export disruptions out of Russia, due to mostly political reasons, sent prices above $1,000 per ounce. Déjà vu anyone?
Today's metal's COT report
I've found when large traders are "excessively" -as you may say- long, that prices have reached some sort of peak. Regarding palladium, the size of the traders' long positions have held very steady over the last year and a half, just as have the commercials' short positions.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Where is that long term chart of Walmart I always post? >>
Why would any of us know?
<< <i>
<< <i>Where is that long term chart of Walmart I always post? >>
Why would any of us know? >>
If you wanted to know what gold was going to do for the next decade you would.
This weekend I will post another chart- not of Walmart- for discussion. I already know it will be dismissed in its entirety, but that's OK as it reinforces my belief in the psychology of markets. We may always think "this time is different" but humans are always the same and react predictably.
This entire series if threads is a great case study. There was so much activity when the price was rising. Everyone was a genius. Bull markets do that. But now gold is boring, nothing to trade. Funny thing is now is when traders make money and set themselves apart from the average "I'm a genius bull market wannabe trader". Do you want to learn to sail the ship or just go along for the ride?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Where is that long term chart of Walmart I always post? >>
Why would any of us know? >>
If you wanted to know what gold was going to do for the next decade you would. >>
Do you think any of the people here have the time to spend scouring the web for your postings of charts? Why not just post them? Do you use the same username in other forums and if so, which ones? I'm not looking for an answer, I'm not going to go searching for your chart postings, and I doubt anyone else is either.
<< <i>This weekend I will post another chart- not of Walmart- for discussion. >>
Ah, because you're still expecting us to spend hours looking for your Walmart chart post? Do we get a prize if we find it?
<< <i>I already know it will be dismissed in its entirety, but that's OK as it reinforces my belief in the psychology of markets. We may always think "this time is different" but humans are always the same and react predictably. >>
We can't dismiss it if you don't post it. How about the psychology of playing games with forum participants?
<< <i>This entire series if threads is a great case study. There was so much activity when the price was rising. Everyone was a genius. Bull markets do that. But now gold is boring, nothing to trade. Funny thing is now is when traders make money and set themselves apart from the average "I'm a genius bull market wannabe trader". Do you want to learn to sail the ship or just go along for the ride? >>
Well, trending markets are easier to trade if you are riding the trend, be it up or down. Trading consolidations is different. But who says a good trader has to be good at both? Why not just find another vehicle that is trending? The only thing that marks a good trader is how much money he makes. Just because we only discuss gold here doesn't mean we aren't trading other things. This forum isn't appropriate for extensive discussion of other commodities.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Where is that long term chart of Walmart I always post? >>
Why would any of us know? >>
If you wanted to know what gold was going to do for the next decade you would.
This weekend I will post another chart- not of Walmart- for discussion. I already know it will be dismissed in its entirety, but that's OK as it reinforces my belief in the psychology of markets. We may always think "this time is different" but humans are always the same and react predictably.
This entire series if threads is a great case study. There was so much activity when the price was rising. Everyone was a genius. Bull markets do that. But now gold is boring, nothing to trade. Funny thing is now is when traders make money and set themselves apart from the average "I'm a genius bull market wannabe trader". Do you want to learn to sail the ship or just go along for the ride? >>
What is the "value" of trading? Every trade benefits the broker. Every winning trade benefits the IRS . Is there a benefit to society , excluding the parasites and middlemen , from trading ?
If we had sound money regular people wouldn't feel the need to trade. They would invest in themselves and the parasites would starve.
<< <i>If we had sound money regular people wouldn't feel the need to trade. They would invest in themselves and the parasites would starve. >>
People still traded back when gold and silver were money. People have always traded. I think people do what they think they can make the most money at, regardless of the prevailing currency.
Here's a chart to consider:
<< <i>
<< <i>If we had sound money regular people wouldn't feel the need to trade. They would invest in themselves and the parasites would starve. >>
People still traded back when gold and silver were money. People have always traded. I think people do what they think they can make the most money at, regardless of the prevailing currency.
Here's a chart to consider:
PC, could you please explain your interpretation of this chart?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>If we had sound money regular people wouldn't feel the need to trade. They would invest in themselves and the parasites would starve. >>
People still traded back when gold and silver were money. People have always traded. I think people do what they think they can make the most money at, regardless of the prevailing currency.
Here's a chart to consider:
Not sure if that chart confirms your view. It appears to be a downward trend for gold in any form or manner.
<< <i>Changed the thread title to apply to the whole year. There just isn't enough activity anymore, gold is still to difficult to trade until it begins to trend again, and that could be a while. It may trend as soon as late June/July, but probably more consolidation in store for most of the rest of the year. Here's the long term monthly chart, the long term bull trend is still very much intact with very solid support at $1225. The lines depict 38.2% retracements.
Here is a monthly chart that covers about an 11 year period. Looks like the long term bull trend is still very much intact. Yes/no?
This is the same "thing" over the next 12 years.
Expect a similar (not exact) pattern to develop for gold over the next decade. Be happy if it breaks to new highs sooner, but tempered expectations will alleviate much angst, resentment, fear, disillusionment, and just plain grief over the next decade.
This chart depicts an asset class that is now 50% higher than 14 years ago. Anybody want to guess what it is?
A sideways market is still a trending market and very tradeable. Should we just forget about trading gold because it doesnt go up everyday? That isnt trading. And we we dont like the sideways trend in gold then why not trade other commodities that have been very "easy" trades such as grains, which have been mentioned.
What kind of trading strategy is "im not gonna trade it because it isnt going up"?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>PC, could you please explain your interpretation of this chart? >>
With that chart alone you can only see that comex inventories are MUCH MUCH lower than they have been in a very, very long time and back when the world and economy were much different. All other discussion would speculation, although one thing that occurs to me is that they are not in a position to deliver any serious quantities of gold any longer, what I would perhaps call a "supply void." This may or may not ever be a real issue. What we do know is that worldwide, gold demand is bigger than it ever has been and central banks are buying - not selling - physical gold. So if demand stays near where is has been, where will the supply come from? It can't be the Comex. And not that the Comex is the only source of gold, but with dwindling supply, prices must rise, eventually. But other questions to ask are why inventories have been allowed to get so low, and why Comex wouldn't take advantage of current pricing to load back up. What do they know or believe? Consider also that the the gold ETFs have very low inventories now as well, so any run in gold could be amplified by the "supply void" unless it can come from somewhere other than Comex, but I don't know where that would be.
<< <i>A sideways market is still a trending market and very tradeable. Should we just forget about trading gold because it doesnt go up everyday? That isnt trading. And we we dont like the sideways trend in gold then why not trade other commodities that have been very "easy" trades such as grains, which have been mentioned.
What kind of trading strategy is "im not gonna trade it because it isnt going up"? >>
Are these comments to me? Because I never said you couldn't trade a sideways market. I said:
trending markets are easier to trade if you are riding the trend, be it up or down. Trading consolidations is different. But who says a good trader has to be good at both?
Nothing wrong with trading consolidations, if you are good at it. But it is not the same as trading a trend. If you're good at either one or both, more power to you. I'm not that good at trading these volatile consolidations, although I do find some minor trends some times to ride. You have to pick your spots.
<< <i>And we we dont like the sideways trend in gold then why not trade other commodities that have been very "easy" trades such as grains, which have been mentioned. >>
And I did suggest trading other things:
Why not just find another vehicle that is trending? ... Just because we only discuss gold here doesn't mean we aren't trading other things. This forum isn't appropriate for extensive discussion of other commodities.
A longer term view for those who think that prices will go back to their highs (some even think this happens quickly).
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Interest in trading PMs sure has dropped. >>
I'm interested. Whatcha buying and whatcha selling?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
First, the SP500 (SPX below) sure looks and feels like it is ready for a decent pullback, if not the start of a huge fall as I've been waiting for for a while. This chart is from David Nichols. I have 1960 as a target for the SP500, and then I'm sure we're looking at a minimum of a 38.2% retrace of that last move up which will be substantial. I plan to open a short position at 1960 area.
I had intended to post this chart a few weeks ago as I could see the breakdown coming the day before this, but I was too busy to take advantage of it and never found a good entry point. I think we're still looking at another test of 1220-1230 and possibly a brief overshoot under 1200, at which point I think it will be a back up the truck opportunity because it isn't going any lower! This type of route is typical for June.
Everything is lining up where I think we're close to a capitulation where SP500 is going to top out, gold is going to bottom out, and we'll see a change of direction. Gold has consolidated enough, any time now in the next few months it should be ready to go again. I'm still not sure it's going to be fast, but any run should have gold back over $1400 easily. Here's a nice monthly chart showing the 38.2% retracement in the monthly time frame. Most other commodities will probably follow.
I think another interesting vehicle to watch right now is Bitcoin... it could be ready to run over $1000 again from current levels.
<< <i>Interest in trading PMs sure has dropped. >>
Not here. I have an interest every day… then again, I also have a greater interet in buying and holding stocks. Divesting is good. A huckster; not so good.
They show me to buy s&p at the 1900 or whatever that gap fill is and gold at 1025...
Alongside the decline in gold prices to levels not seen since January is a sharp fall in speculative long bets on the metal to levels not seen since January. According to CFTC data (as reflected in this great graphic from Reuters), pros are net long 51K gold contracts, nearly 100K less than 3 months ago.
chart
<< <i>from seeking alpha...
Alongside the decline in gold prices to levels not seen since January is a sharp fall in speculative long bets on the metal to levels not seen since January. According to CFTC data (as reflected in this great graphic from Reuters), pros are net long 51K gold contracts, nearly 100K less than 3 months ago.
chart >>
A good point. You always want to buy something when no one else wants it, and I have to say that I think we are nearing that point. There is always going to be enthusiasm for gold on the PCGS message boards, but I would have to say the sentiment really is at a low.
<< <i>from seeking alpha...
Alongside the decline in gold prices to levels not seen since January is a sharp fall in speculative long bets on the metal to levels not seen since January. According to CFTC data (as reflected in this great graphic from Reuters), pros are net long 51K gold contracts, nearly 100K less than 3 months ago.
chart >>
Perhaps an easier graphical representation. I dont see anything too exciting.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Opened a small short position on the SP500. Looking for a 25-30 point retracement where I will bail. >>
Dont you just love it when a plan comes together?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>Opened a small short position on the SP500. Looking for a 25-30 point retracement where I will bail. >>
Dont you just love it when a plan comes together?
Yep, now I just need to time my exit.
I had to bail on the short gold position for a small ~$4 loss. The breakout over $1265 is encouraging but I would have felt better and been more predictable to see gold retest $1220 area before heading up. I'm not ready to go long gold yet, although if SP500 breaks below $1920 decisively it might be a sign to go long gold. This turmoil in Iraq is could be the perfect catalyst to set everything in motion.
My short gold position got stopped out. I went long gold last night at $1268 and I'm looking for a move to $1300 where I will probably bail.
Encountered this chart which was interesting, comparing the last big move in gold to this one...
I've had a good string of successes lately. I did exit my SP500 position near the top of the last move. I am unsure of the movement from here so I am staying out for now.
I did exit my long gold position just over $1300 and locked in my gains. I was surprised by the surge well beyond that, and I am encouraged at such a show of strength that I believe this is the beginning of a serious move. I am looking to get long again on a retracement/pullback below 1310 and I'm loading up with a bigger position. I'm not backing up the truck, but I think I'm going to wish I did.
I'll note that yet again, it appears that early/mid-June will mark a multi-month low and turning point for gold.
<< <i>I've had a good string of successes lately. I did exit my SP500 position near the top of the last move. I am unsure of the movement from here so I am staying out for now.
I did exit my long gold position just over $1300 and locked in my gains. I was surprised by the surge well beyond that, and I am encouraged at such a show of strength that I believe this is the beginning of a serious move. I am looking to get long again on a retracement/pullback below 1310 and I'm loading up with a bigger position. I'm not backing up the truck, but I think I'm going to wish I did.
I'll note that yet again, it appears that early/mid-June will mark a multi-month low and turning point for gold. >>
Congratulations on the winning streak. I was surprised by the strength of the gold rally. I closed out three big losers on Thursday, including some short calls on GLD. I'll update my blog (signature link) with my weekly post a bit after Friday's close, and a monthly update by Saturday.
SP500 looks like it might be in trouble. If ES (SP500 e-mini) doesn't get back above 1950 in short order or declines further, I will be trying to get short.
I probably need to look into investing in the VIX. The VIX is in rare low territory, a long position here should profitable right? It seems so obvious there must be a catch, and I remember reading that investing in VIX futures is not like other vehicles.
But what really looks intriguing right now it Bitcoin. At $645 as I type this, soon to be over $1000.
The big multi year SP500 bullish pattern looks to me like it is in its last gasp of energy. 1 or 2 more weeks or grinding upward is left, but I don't think we'll see any new highs. I'm looking to get short big time in the next few weeks.
GLTA
100% Positive BST transactions
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I know the predictions are for some record harvests. I hate to pretend that I can predict the weather but I think the El Nino weather pattern may wreak havoc on this fall's crop and it is not factored in. Timing will be everything and will be very difficult, but if you can identify the bottom it will probably be a good play to go long at some point. I think gold is done moving for the week, the up trend should resume Mon/Tues next week...
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The corn looks pretty good right now. If it looks good in Missouri, I would guess that it looks really really good in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana.
I knew it would happen.
Gold volatility. Interesting pattern with a spike in volatility every 18 months or so. We are due...
Monthly gold chart. Nearing the Apex, breakout soon. Of course, it could go another month or two...
And the SP500. Symmetry in charts should not be ignored.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>So the low gold volatility means prices will drop? >>
No, it just looks like a time for a spike in volatility.