Word is that Citibank is in serious trouble. Could have a profound affect on all forms of the metals.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I have been super busy lately but that doesn't mean I haven't been watching things. I'm waiting for a few more confirmations but it does appear that the market energy has flipped positive for PMs and negative for stocks. Things are heating up in PMs and the pattern should be becoming more trade-able, particularly for long, long term positions. I initiated a small position at around $1125 and I have doubled the position here at $1222.
Things look really good as long as gold can hold $1225 and it should be ready for more up-side shortly. If this happens I'm looking for a return to $1400 by February.
Meanwhile, the stock markets look to finally be ready for some corrections and retracements - possibly some big ones.
Jumped on the UVXY train for a ride Tuesday @ 22.16. Held it and didn't sell Wednesday at 24-ish because I was busy doing something else and was away from my computer. Came back from lunch yesterday and sold it at 25.70 right before the dip back to 24-something..............which was right before the run up to 27-something before the close. Pre-market bid Friday is now over $30.
@ Elite CNC Routing & Woodworks on Facebook. Check out my work. Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
Gold to have a max circuit breaker range of $400. They go into effect on Dec 21st. Have to wonder why they are coming out with these now, and not anytime in the past 14 years. They certainly don't have any concern about gold (or PMs in general) falling too far on any one day. $165/oz from April 2013 is the biggest one day swing so far of the past 15+ years. April-June of last year would have been a perfect time to institute various PM circuit breakers...why didn't they do this last year? What has changed in the PM trading and financial sectors to require this now? Energy contracts already have this in place.
There are exceptions to these circuit breakers. For instance, "no further special price fluctuation limits will be implemented following a trading day’s fourth price fluctuation limit adjustment." And...."there shall be no special price fluctuation limits for an expiring primary metals futures contract during the period between and including the contract’s first intent day and the last delivery day. The Exchanges will also not call temporary trading halts or an expansion of special price fluctuation limits for primary futures contract months or their associated products during the last five minutes of trading between and including the first intent day and the last delivery day of a related expiring primary metals futures contract."
Considering there are 4 levels in gold ($100, $200, $300, $400) does that mean if there are 4 consecutive halts/limit adjustments that the ultimate price change that day could be at most $400....or at most $1,000/oz? (ie 100+200+300+400 = 1,000).
<< <i>Jumped on the UVXY train for a ride Tuesday @ 22.16. Held it and didn't sell Wednesday at 24-ish because I was busy doing something else and was away from my computer. Came back from lunch yesterday and sold it at 25.70 right before the dip back to 24-something..............which was right before the run up to 27-something before the close. Pre-market bid Friday is now over $30. >>
Good for you, That ETF is probably scarier than NUGT and JNUG ...Watching it because if we continue to have a risk off trade next week it will go parabolic. Then the risk reward on puts should be very good, imo.
<< <i>Good for you, That ETF is probably scarier than NUGT and JNUG >>
Yes, very volatile. Scares me, almost too much, but I have to ride it anyway looking at the potential reward. VXX is also a good play when the SM is dropping. I think UVXY will have more potential if you have the nads to hang on and time it good.
I messed up and was bullheaded/emotional with JNUG this time around (down). The announcement of the reverse split caught me with my pants down.
@ Elite CNC Routing & Woodworks on Facebook. Check out my work. Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
<< <i>Playing volatility not the same as playing an asset or stock. >>
Both require a correct insight to price direction. Difference being how quickly that price movement occurs.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Ruble in a severe free fall this morning...made a stab at the falling knife, RSX >>
Nice. just checked it and it's up 9%.(Edited: It's down, not up. got confused)
I had a limit order for UVXY at 26.75 placed on Friday afternoon. Never got filled. Check my account this morning and realized I was using unsettled funds for the purchase and didn't want to chance it (will settle tomorrow). I cancelled the order this morning when I saw the market open in the green. Got busy at work and just checked it and it's a $30 (11:45am EST). Probably would've filled the order on a couple of down bumps this morning.
@ Elite CNC Routing & Woodworks on Facebook. Check out my work. Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
Right you are sir. I have no idea what I was thinking/looking at when I wrote that last entry. I probably was thinking about UVXY when I was typing. Stooooopid.
@ Elite CNC Routing & Woodworks on Facebook. Check out my work. Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
Dang, coh, such a party pooper, I was hoping it was up 9% since I bought.
Back to reality, I'm actually down over 2% from my purchase this morning, RSX while cheap keeps getting cheaper, at least it's an unleveraged ETF, so it will take a while to go to zero and if Russia stays in business somehow, which I suspect they will, it may even go up one day ;~
Wes, on UVXY, its seems to be acting strangely today, even when the market reversed hard, earlier, it was only flat for the day, which surprised me. Personally, I really only want to trade the downside of that black hole, but only after rips.
Gold melting. Been short since last week. 'bout time it broke, I' real short of sleep.
Salute the automobile: The greatest anti-pollution device in human history! (Just think of city streets clogged with a hundred thousand horses each generating 15 lbs of manure every day...)
Ha..right, could've been worse, was down about 15% at the opening yesterday, of course, it's up 7% from where I got stopped out, just a couple of hours ago. That's what I get for using a chicken arse stops ;
Had to look up HDP was not familiar with them, interesting company.
Gold is ready for a move, just can't tell which direction. But I think whatever direction it goes from here is the direction it will keep going. This move in stocks is exhausted. I'm looking for and expecting a normal pullback and have initiated a small short position to try to play the pullback. One thing I called was the spike in volatility and the markets have definitely become more volatile. One thing I read or heard recently was that when markets get volatile at their highs it usually predicts a significant fall or pull back. However, another thing I read this morning looked at the booming Venezuela stock market. Of course, their market isn't booming because of their economy... are we seeing the same thing here?
Salute the automobile: The greatest anti-pollution device in human history! (Just think of city streets clogged with a hundred thousand horses each generating 15 lbs of manure every day...)
I read this morning looked at the booming Venezuela stock market. Of course, their market isn't booming because of their economy... are we seeing the same thing here?
I tend to think so. The market had several runs in the Great Depression. But here's the kicker...
The dollar looks to continue its strength vs. most other currencies. The US economy continues to be relatively strong compared to the rest. The govt has every incentive to keep rates low, and they create more dollars in order to accomplish low rates. As long as the dollar is strong in relative terms, they can continue to pump stocks and create dollars.
So it looks like more of the same can continue, but for how long? And what would turn the trend in the other direction? Frankly, I don't know that answer or if I did, it wouldn't be a good scenario. Any change in the direction of the dollar from this point is counterintuitive. It doesn't seem to be in the cards, except for some unknown black swan event. A tail event. Which implies low probability with large implications if it does occur.
Even though gold is weak in dollar terms, it's not weak in other currencies. The only thing I can think of doing is to accumulate dollars until they start to weaken relative to gold, and then to continue buying metals. I'd rather have metals than stocks or bonds, when the dollar turns. If it never turns, that's okay too. Stay somewhat liquid, is my preference.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>So it looks like more of the same can continue, but for how long? And what would turn the trend in the other direction? Frankly, I don't know that answer or if I did, it wouldn't be a good scenario. Any change in the direction of the dollar from this point is counterintuitive. It doesn't seem to be in the cards, except for some unknown black swan event. A tail event. Which implies low probability with large implications if it does occur. >>
I agree, I tend to think the same thing. I think the US will be fine until the next black swan event. That event - whatever it is - will bring turmoil and chaos to the markets and send gold soaring. The problem is that once the event happens it may not be possible to get your hands on gold or get rid of your dollars. The problem is that we can't predict when that event will happen (otherwise it wouldn't be a black swan event), but we're probably about due for one...
The only thing I can think of doing is to accumulate dollars until they start to weaken relative to gold, and then to continue buying metals. I'd rather have metals than stocks or bonds, when the dollar turns. If it never turns, that's okay too. Stay somewhat liquid, is my preference.
<< <i>The only thing I can think of doing is to accumulate dollars until they start to weaken relative to gold, and then to continue buying metals. I'd rather have metals than stocks or bonds, when the dollar turns. If it never turns, that's okay too. Stay somewhat liquid, is my preference.
>>
The problem is that once the event happens it may not be possible to get your hands on gold or get rid of your dollars.
I'm out. Small profit better than none. Market apparently factored in today's numbers, or else the bad durables number balanced the super GDP and Redbook.
Salute the automobile: The greatest anti-pollution device in human history! (Just think of city streets clogged with a hundred thousand horses each generating 15 lbs of manure every day...)
It hasn't had a really sharp correction in 20 years. The last two were 40% (1980-1982) and 27% (1990-1995). What are the chances that a sharp decline is overdue? We've always heard that high prices are a cure for high prices. And a 30X increase in 38 years seems plenty high for a "commodity." Don't all markets tend to eventually regress to the mean given enough time?
This broader market shows a clear 5 impulsive waves lower from 1990-1996, then a meandering 3 wave bounce over the next 12 years. The Elliot Wave people suggest that a correction never ends on a single 5 wave impulsive move. Those are usually followed by a bounce then a final impulse lower, typically below the bottom of the first impulsive set of waves. The gold and silver charts from 2000-2013 looks a lot like this (as due the Yen, Aussie, and Cando charts). Certainly, it's also possible that a sharper corrective bounce higher could still be in the works from the 1996 lows.
Comments
<< <i>Several energy names have/had RSIs in the low teens.
Sold XOP. Made $5.06.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Things look really good as long as gold can hold $1225 and it should be ready for more up-side shortly. If this happens I'm looking for a return to $1400 by February.
Meanwhile, the stock markets look to finally be ready for some corrections and retracements - possibly some big ones.
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
Gold to have a max circuit breaker range of $400. They go into effect on Dec 21st. Have to wonder why they are coming out with these now, and not anytime in the past 14 years. They certainly don't have any concern about gold (or PMs in general) falling too far on any one day. $165/oz from April 2013 is the biggest one day swing so far of the past 15+ years. April-June of last year would have been a perfect time to institute various PM circuit breakers...why didn't they do this last year? What has changed in the PM trading and financial sectors to require this now? Energy contracts already have this in place.
There are exceptions to these circuit breakers. For instance, "no further special price fluctuation limits will be implemented following a trading day’s fourth price fluctuation limit adjustment." And...."there shall be no special price fluctuation limits for an expiring primary metals futures contract during the period between and including the contract’s first intent day and the last delivery day. The Exchanges will also not call temporary trading halts or an expansion of special price fluctuation limits for primary futures contract months or their associated products during the last five minutes of trading between and including the first intent day and the last delivery day of a related expiring primary metals futures contract."
Considering there are 4 levels in gold ($100, $200, $300, $400) does that mean if there are 4 consecutive halts/limit adjustments that the ultimate price change that day could be at most $400....or at most $1,000/oz? (ie 100+200+300+400 = 1,000).
<< <i>Jumped on the UVXY train for a ride Tuesday @ 22.16. Held it and didn't sell Wednesday at 24-ish because I was busy doing something else and was away from my computer. Came back from lunch yesterday and sold it at 25.70 right before the dip back to 24-something..............which was right before the run up to 27-something before the close.
Good for you, That ETF is probably scarier than NUGT and JNUG
<< <i>Good for you, That ETF is probably scarier than NUGT and JNUG
Yes, very volatile. Scares me, almost too much, but I have to ride it anyway looking at the potential reward. VXX is also a good play when the SM is dropping. I think UVXY will have more potential if you have the nads to hang on and time it good.
I messed up and was bullheaded/emotional with JNUG this time around (down). The announcement of the reverse split caught me with my pants down.
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
What say ye all? We headed for a hard candy Christmas?
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
<< <i>Playing volatility not the same as playing an asset or stock. >>
Both require a correct insight to price direction. Difference being how quickly that price movement occurs.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Ruble in a severe free fall this morning...made a stab at the falling knife, RSX >>
Nice. just checked it and it's up 9%.(Edited: It's down, not up. got confused)
I had a limit order for UVXY at 26.75 placed on Friday afternoon. Never got filled. Check my account this morning and realized I was using unsettled funds for the purchase and didn't want to chance it (will settle tomorrow). I cancelled the order this morning when I saw the market open in the green. Got busy at work and just checked it and it's a $30 (11:45am EST). Probably would've filled the order on a couple of down bumps this morning.
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
Back to reality, I'm actually down over 2% from my purchase this morning, RSX while cheap keeps getting cheaper, at least it's an unleveraged ETF, so it will take a while to go to zero and if Russia stays in business somehow, which I suspect they will, it may even go up one day ;~
Wes, on UVXY, its seems to be acting strangely today, even when the market reversed hard, earlier, it was only flat for the day, which surprised me. Personally, I really only want to trade the downside of that black hole, but only after rips.
(Just think of city streets clogged with a hundred thousand horses each generating 15 lbs of manure every day...)
Not paying for Santa with that trade
I got into some HDP yesterday for a long hold. Should have potential. Wish I could've gotten some at the IPO price.
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
That's what I get for using a chicken arse stops ;
Had to look up HDP was not familiar with them, interesting company.
This move in stocks is exhausted. I'm looking for and expecting a normal pullback and have initiated a small short position to try to play the pullback. One thing I called was the spike in volatility and the markets have definitely become more volatile. One thing I read or heard recently was that when markets get volatile at their highs it usually predicts a significant fall or pull back. However, another thing I read this morning looked at the booming Venezuela stock market. Of course, their market isn't booming because of their economy... are we seeing the same thing here?
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/venezuela/stock-market
(Just think of city streets clogged with a hundred thousand horses each generating 15 lbs of manure every day...)
I tend to think so. The market had several runs in the Great Depression. But here's the kicker...
The dollar looks to continue its strength vs. most other currencies. The US economy continues to be relatively strong compared to the rest. The govt has every incentive to keep rates low, and they create more dollars in order to accomplish low rates. As long as the dollar is strong in relative terms, they can continue to pump stocks and create dollars.
So it looks like more of the same can continue, but for how long? And what would turn the trend in the other direction? Frankly, I don't know that answer or if I did, it wouldn't be a good scenario. Any change in the direction of the dollar from this point is counterintuitive. It doesn't seem to be in the cards, except for some unknown black swan event. A tail event. Which implies low probability with large implications if it does occur.
Even though gold is weak in dollar terms, it's not weak in other currencies. The only thing I can think of doing is to accumulate dollars until they start to weaken relative to gold, and then to continue buying metals. I'd rather have metals than stocks or bonds, when the dollar turns. If it never turns, that's okay too. Stay somewhat liquid, is my preference.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>So it looks like more of the same can continue, but for how long? And what would turn the trend in the other direction? Frankly, I don't know that answer or if I did, it wouldn't be a good scenario. Any change in the direction of the dollar from this point is counterintuitive. It doesn't seem to be in the cards, except for some unknown black swan event. A tail event. Which implies low probability with large implications if it does occur. >>
I agree, I tend to think the same thing. I think the US will be fine until the next black swan event. That event - whatever it is - will bring turmoil and chaos to the markets and send gold soaring. The problem is that once the event happens it may not be possible to get your hands on gold or get rid of your dollars. The problem is that we can't predict when that event will happen (otherwise it wouldn't be a black swan event), but we're probably about due for one...
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>The only thing I can think of doing is to accumulate dollars until they start to weaken relative to gold, and then to continue buying metals. I'd rather have metals than stocks or bonds, when the dollar turns. If it never turns, that's okay too. Stay somewhat liquid, is my preference.
The problem is that once the event happens it may not be possible to get your hands on gold or get rid of your dollars.
Even if a nuke were to take out DC, US dollars would be the exchange mechanism.
Exchange those dollars when other assets represent relative values.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
(Just think of city streets clogged with a hundred thousand horses each generating 15 lbs of manure every day...)
It hasn't had a really sharp correction in 20 years. The last two were 40% (1980-1982) and 27% (1990-1995). What are the chances that a sharp decline is overdue? We've always heard that high prices are a cure for high prices. And a 30X increase in 38 years seems plenty high for a "commodity." Don't all markets tend to eventually regress to the mean given enough time?
Does the view change any with the above market being a subset of this market?
This broader market shows a clear 5 impulsive waves lower from 1990-1996, then a meandering 3 wave bounce over the next 12 years. The Elliot Wave people suggest that a correction never ends on a single 5 wave impulsive move. Those are usually followed by a bounce then a final impulse lower, typically below the bottom of the first impulsive set of waves. The gold and silver charts from 2000-2013 looks a lot like this (as due the Yen, Aussie, and Cando charts). Certainly, it's also possible that a sharper corrective bounce higher could still be in the works from the 1996 lows.