Why is the Redbook so inaccurate?

Alltheabove76

Does anyone have a good answer for that? Seems like after 67 years and being the top guide for the common collector that they would have gotten the system perfected or at least reasonably close. I am a large cent collector primarily, and many of the prices they have listed bear no relationship with reality.

2014 Redbook Prices
1793 Liberty Cap Large Cent Prices: AG-3 $3000 G-4 $5000 VG-8 $11,000

You cannot touch a problem free good for less than $12-15K. Ankur has an AG3 that he paid 10K for I believe.

AUandAG

Can't comment on the 1793 Large Cent as I have not been shopping for one lately. However,
in the Morgan series I find that the Redbook is usually on the high side for what I can locate.
For instance, I don't have the current Redbook, but the one I have says that a 1890cc in XF40
should sell for $185. If you do a search you can find many graded examples that are less than
the book, by quite a bunch.
Link to EX40 at $115 in NGC plastic

Perhaps Ankur and you are not looking in enough places?

bob

PS: my Redbook is from 2011.

astrorat

<< <i>Does anyone have a good answer for that? Seems like after 67 years and being the top guide for the common collector that they would have gotten the system perfected or at least reasonably close. I am a large cent collector primarily, and many of the prices they have listed bear no relationship with reality.

2014 Redbook Prices
1793 Liberty Cap Large Cent Prices: AG-3 $3000 G-4 $5000 VG-8 $11,000

You cannot touch a problem free good for less than $12-15K. Ankur has an AG3 that he paid 10K for I believe. >>

Are you aware of how the "Redbook" determines value? In brief, there are many, many market knowledgable numismatists who provide pricing data that, to the best of their knowledge and understanding of the market, are accurate when submitted. These data are submitted generally 1-2 years on advance of the "Redbook Date" and represent the pricing at the time submitted, not a future estimate of pricing. [Caveat ... this is what I was told by Ken Bressett a few years ago, so things may have changed since then.]

Is the pricing in the "Redbook" for problem-free coins or is it for typical coins?

The "Redbook" is just a guide, nothing more.

MGLICKER

Handy ballpark reference , but I verify current pricing from a different source. Great resource though that I use each day.

ModCrewman

Just a few possible reasons.

1. It's just a guide.
2. Prices are likely not intended to be for TPG certified pieces.
3. It is probably sent to print nearly a year before the year on the cover, so market fluctuations subsequent to that could not be reflected.
4. It's just a guide.

ColonelJessup

Have you checked out the prices for EAC coins in the CDN Quarterly? Same thing.

My take on it: EAC grading standards (plus variety premiums) differ so dramatically from those in other more "generic" standards that accurate reportage is impossible. Many other examples in other series can be found, though none so central to your question as EAC material.

Not my cup of meat and likely so far from EAC as to be mostly irrelevant, but wouldn't any value the value trackers came up with for Franklin FBL's be just as worthless?

"It's just a guide"

ricko

The Redbook is just a guide... after that you have many other choices/resources... Greysheet, auction records, forums.. etc...... Cheers, RickO

OldEastside

I will await for a response from Dentuck

Steve

Alltheabove76

<< <i>The Redbook is just a guide... after that you have many other choices/resources... Greysheet, auction records, forums.. etc...... Cheers, RickO >>



I agree, and I certainly don't rely on Redbook. I was just curious as to why they are so far from reality on certain coins.

ebaybuyer

the redbook is for coins that are available, any day of the week, by the handful, including coins like the 09svdb and 16d dime which can be bought from just about any dealer in the country, for coins that are truly scarce, and only exist in a handful or less, the redbook is inaccurate at best

MICHAELDIXON

I was told many years ago (1964) to use the Redbook for information and reference only and NEVER use it for a price guide. I've never used it for a price guide.

Jcarney

<< <i>Have you checked out the prices for EAC coins in the CDN Quarterly? Same thing.

My take on it: EAC grading standards (plus variety premiums) differ so dramatically from those in other more "generic" standards that accurate reportage is impossible. Many other examples in other series can be found, though none so central to your question as EAC material.

Not my cup of meat and likely so far from EAC as to be mostly irrelevant, but wouldn't any value the value trackers came up with for Franklin FBL's be just as worthless?

"It's just a guide" >>



Actually, Numismedia is pretty good on FBL Franklins up to 65. At 66, it's pretty impossible to have a guide be accurate as those coins are priced all over the place depending on holder, toning (or lack thereof...brilliant 66FBLs command a significant premium) strike (yeah, I've seem many crappy struck coins in FBL holders) and the list goes on and on. At 67 each coin stands on it's own.

Steve27

I think the Red Book is a great source of basic info; however, price guides are always wrong. For high priced material you have to look at recent auction results, and in some instances, even those have been manipulated.

BryceM

Well, if you think about gathering accurate prices for all grades of every coin ever minted, it's not hard to understand how they might miss a few. I'm sure with additional resources the people making it could do a better job, but there's a cost-benefit analysis that has to go into that. Other price guides are available and there's probably little incentive for the publishers to improve it. It's not like they'd double their sales if the guides were more accurate.

I use it primarily to see relative prices (the 1864 is four times more valuable than the 1865), mintages, and background info on each series. For that, it's great.

BillJones

Most any early cent dated from 1793 to the 1796 Liberty Cap graded AG-03 to VG-8 is going to be as ugly as sin. You need to be a really dedicated collector with a budget that can't afford anything better to take a shine for material like that. Ugly coins are what they are pricing in the Red Book.

If you can find a strict Good with hard, smooth surfaces and no corrosion, it is worth one or probably two sharpness grades beyond the catalog price. Pricing these coins is on a case by case basis. The really ugly ones have a limited audience, and low balling the price is really a safe thing to do. This is where the concept of "Choice, Average, Scudgzy" and "Worse Than Scudgzy" come into play. Until you get columns for those categories by sharpness grade, your price guide will to be of limited use.

You also have to remember that Red Book prices are supplied by a panel of dealers. I don't know if the guys who make a living selling "Walkers, Dollars and Commems" get to submit prices for early copper, but if they do, their numbers are going to be guesses at best. Few people are really expert at grading all coins in the American series, and even fewer people know the market and current prices for them.

TwoSides2aCoin

I need it for the presidential dollars and all these new clad quarters, now. At some point, there will be inaccuracies and variables that many feel are not trust worthy. That's just the way it is in print and type.

TPRC

Yes, the Redbook is off, but all of the guides are off subject to lots of interpretation. I attribute, grade and price large cents for a local dealer in town. Once I attribute and grade a coin, I look up bid, Redbook, and Coin Values. I also give it my own EAC grade and check Robinson's. Then I go to Heritage Archives, which generally gives me the most accurate approximation of a large cent's value. These sources are just part of the info that goes into the mix. For a coin of any real value, you should really look at all of this and you also need to know how to grade, which is no simple task with early copper. So, it is not surprising that the Redbook values are off in some areas.

from my perspective, the craziest valuations come from Coin Values. I think that after the Robbie Robinson sale, Coin Values looked at the grades and prices, and used them in establishing prices. The problem is that the grades were EAC grades and the prices were high because this was a great sale. So, my recollection is that for a long while anyway, common date and common grade coins are priced too high in Coin Values. That may have changed, but that is my recollection.

For valuation, my general take is that Heritage is closest to the mark. But again, since you can't view those coins in person, that, too, is difficult.

CoinRaritiesOnline

<< <i>Most any early cent dated from 1793 to the 1796 Liberty Cap graded AG-03 to VG-8 is going to be as ugly as sin. You need to be a really dedicated collector with a budget that can't afford anything better to take a shine for material like that. Ugly coins are what they are pricing in the Red Book.

If you can find a strict Good with hard, smooth surfaces and no corrosion, it is worth one or probably two sharpness grades beyond the catalog price. Pricing these coins is on a case by case basis. The really ugly ones have a limited audience, and low balling the price is really a safe thing to do. This is where the concept of "Choice, Average, Scudgzy" and "Worse Than Scudgzy" come into play. Until you get columns for those categories by sharpness grade, your price guide will to be of limited use.

You also have to remember that Red Book prices are supplied by a panel of dealers. I don't know if the guys who make a living selling "Walkers, Dollars and Commems" get to submit prices for early copper, but if they do, their numbers are going to be guesses at best. Few people are really expert at grading all coins in the American series, and even fewer people know the market and current prices for them. >>



Good answer.

nencoin

I usually tell folks who inquire about the guide to use the pricing to help determine which coins of a series are the important, more valuable dates, but to disregard the actual prices. For a beginner who just inherited an accumulation of coins from a relative, they can use the Red Book to quickly pick out the more important dates based on which ones are listed for more money than others, then consult with a coin dealer as to the actual value of the coins they've determined to be better.

SamByrd

the redbook has very little practical use for real world prices. I have not wasted the money on a blue or red book for a decade or 2 online is a far better a resource.
The red book prices are fantasy for uncommon or difficult to obtain pieces many times. The commons are over priced and not the real market a lot of the time.

the publication has so little use it was a resource for mintage's and other information but is dated and pretty much obsolete.

19Lyds

The "Redbook" is printed annually which means that its always a year out of date.

I do not know why folks don't understand this simple fact.

IMO, the Redbook should simply be used as an informational reference and definitely NOT a price guide.