What do you think the odds are of it going down and staying down?

tneig

Its a consideration. What is silver stayed around $12 for a decade..

jmski52

We're in the process of shopping for a late model used car. I've been rolling up some cash in order buy the car outright so that I don't have to hassle with payments, and then my fiancee' threw me a curveball. She asks me if we wouldn't be smarter to take advantage of zero interest for 5 years?

So, I'm going WTF? Five Years? Why do they want to finance the car for 5 years with no interest? Well, to me this means that their selling price is jacked up a bit, but it also makes me wonder how bad the deflation cycle is going to be. If it's true that banks are really considering charging their depositors to keep their money on deposit, I take that to mean that rates are going negative which also means that we are at an inflection point in the economy.

It means that they've created enough electronic money to push rates to zero and they still can't stimulate consumption. It means that the banks are trying to push loans out the door for virtually no return. That just doesn't make any economic sense at all. If they really want people hooked on debt so badly, it makes me think that they know something that they aren't talking about, and that they expect the dollar to be worth more, not less in the future. That doesn't mean that they know what they're doing. Quite the contrary, in my opinion.

I think that there's a whipsaw being planned, or already in progress. As roadrunner says, rinse, lather, repeat. If silver goes to $12, I'd be real surprised.

jdimmick

I did that, I don't drive expensive cars, but do like to get a new one every so often. Earlier this year, I went to get a new Camry, and had every intention of just buying it outright, but they kept throwing deals and 0% financing at me .
So I got a 36 month 0% with an additional 800 off the car for doing it, so I took it. Why not use their money if its free.

mrpaseo

Let me go on record saying... I doubt it. At worst, we will have another roller coaster of PMs, at best a steady incline. The bottom line is... QE. It can not go on forever, what does the trail end of this look like?

I'm young enough, either way I'm going to keep stacking. Slow and steady though, I'm not betting the farm on any one thing these days. Too much of a gamble. Diversify, diversify, diversify (And that doesn't mean Gold, Silver and Platinum...lol).

Best,
Ray

mrpaseo

As for the car dealerships.... two things I know...

1) They boost up the cost so the interest is not needed. So a $5,000 vehicle at 5.9% becomes a $6,000 vehicle at 0% before you walk into the place.

2) People on the norm do not pay off things in the required window. Meaning, that if you get a vehicle with no interest payments for a year, with the intentions to pay it off in a year, something like 75% of the time people do not stick to that budget and pay it off in that year, which means they start pulling interest and they already earned a bunch up front when they boosted the original cost.

Also, a lot of these loans are "Sold" to someone else. So the dealership makes a few hundred/thousand with your down payment, then they sell the rest of the loan to a bank. If your down payment is your trade in, they still sell the loan to the bank and profit on the trade in.

Best,
Ray

mrpaseo

And to reiterate, if Silver hit $12 and flat lined, I would be able to buy more each month. If life goes the way we have it planned, we (My wife and I) will never spend any of it anyway, we will be handing it over to our child. She's okay with that.

Happy Holidays,
Ray

PerryHall

The chance of silver prices flat-lining over a long period of time is about the same as the national debt flat-lining over a long period of time. In other words, ZERO.

Baley

<< <i>The chance of silver prices flat-lining over a long period of time is about the same as the national debt flat-lining over a long period of time. In other words, ZERO. >>



because we all know the national debt flat-lined from for more than 20 years 1981 through 2001. Wha... wha? It didn't, but metals did anyway?

jmski52

Diversify, diversify, diversify (And that doesn't mean Gold, Silver and Platinum...lol

Oh, yes................it does, lol.

jmski52

the national debt flat-lined from for more than 20 years 1981 through 2001. Wha... wha? It didn't, but metals did anyway? s

Yellen isn't Volker, and Obama isn't Reagan. Just sayin'.

ricko

I think the odds are strongly against such a scenario.... too much greed in the world (not that there's anything wrong with that )....Cheers, RickO

LukeMarshall

<< <i>Diversify, diversify, diversify (And that doesn't mean Gold, Silver and Platinum...lol

Oh, yes................it does, lol. >>



You forgot one more diversify... Palladium

Massivle underpriced IMO of course.

BAJJERFAN

<< <i>I did that, I don't drive expensive cars, but do like to get a new one every so often. Earlier this year, I went to get a new Camry, and had every intention of just buying it outright, but they kept throwing deals and 0% financing at me .
So I got a 36 month 0% with an additional 800 off the car for doing it, so I took it. Why not use their money if its free. >>



Was your vehicle the last one they needed to sell to get an "incentive" package from the manufacturer? Just curious, but who are you making your monthly financing payments to?

LukeMarshall

<< <i>Its a consideration. What is silver stayed around $12 for a decade.. >>



I'd imaging that we would learn more about actual supply and demand if a senario like this was to occur.
Far to long have people spouted about above ground reserves of certain PMs for speculatory purposes in our favorite EFTs
Maybe 10 years would be a good reality check. And no I'm not saying I think Silver will stay @ 12 with that statement.

mariner67

I do think silver and other PMs can go down and flat line for a very long time.
I have participated in and seen it in the mid-late 1970s when silver and gold(which I owned) sky rocketed like it did recently in 2011 and then dropped like a lead balloon and flatlined for over two decades.
It has happened and you better believe it can happen again now.
No one really knows what will happen but do not for a second think it is impossible or unlikely.
I agree with mrpaseo...diversify...do not put all your eggs in one basket.
Don't get greedy, go for safety.
JMHO.

cohodk

Jmski, zero % interest rates will have only a limited impact on demand. The problem is demographics--not enough people in prime car buyig age, and too much consumer debt. ZIRP only allows us to refinance ourselves into a more stable position rather than being over indebted. Thus we tread water rather than drowning.

"They" don't know the dollar is going up, but some have written about relativities among currencies and economics and demographics and made the case why the dollar should not fall relative to its peers.

MGLICKER

My bet is on an upward trend in Silver. Having said that, a decade of so ago the metal could be had for a bit under $5. We are still at quadruple the bottom so a period in the $12 range is possible. Doubt that it would stay there long though.

mhammerman

Keep your powder dry. Hold or increase your position slowly. Maybe Justacommeman still has the code.

Base OUT.

yellowkid

Any scenario is a possibility, I like to stay diversified.

tnspro

<< <i>My bet is on an upward trend in Silver. Having said that, a decade of so ago the metal could be had for a bit under $5. We are still at quadruple the bottom so a period in the $12 range is possible. Doubt that it would stay there long though. >>



so you are saying it will trend up....AFTER it goes to $12? I see a lot of people here that respond with saying something like, "it will go up, but that doesn't mean it will not go down".

My prediction.......silver will go to $10 or maybe rise to $50 in the next 10 years or so....

timcoin

I'm thinking there will be a lot of people in a few years who will say to themselves something along the lines of, "Dang! I knew I should have bought (more) silver when it was in the low $19 an ounce."

mariner67

<< <i>I'm thinking there will be a lot of people in a few years who will say to themselves something along the lines of, "Dang! I knew I should have bought (more) silver when it was in the low $19 an ounce." >>



Or just as likely…
Dang! Why did I buy at $19 when it is now $12!

Just sayin'

MGLICKER

<< <i>

<< <i>I'm thinking there will be a lot of people in a few years who will say to themselves something along the lines of, "Dang! I knew I should have bought (more) silver when it was in the low $19 an ounce." >>



Or just as likely…
Dang! Why did I buy at $19 when it is now $12!

Just sayin' >>



Well said. Buy low and sell high is not nearly as simple as it seems.

derryb

silver never stays down, it's too volatile. Eventually it won't stay below $50.

Kip

Hopefully they will both go down more....I will try to get lucky again. They wont be at 2000 prices like when I bought but I will wait

Previous comment here:

Thursday June 20, 2013 3:52 PM



Martin says...
Volatility tomorrow...and into Monday.' It will now take a daily closing back above 1400 to stabilize gold. This implies we have lower to go.
" Key support lies at 1270 followed critical support at 1236-1233. A weekly closing beneath that level opens the door to a test of the 939.50 level". My god i am glad I went out at $1600..just luck..I needed the money
K Strong

-------------------------
UCSB Electrical Engineering....... Formerly NASA

mariner67

<< <i>Hopefully they will both go down more....I will try to get lucky again. They wont be at 2000 prices like when I bought but I will wait

Previous comment here:

Thursday June 20, 2013 3:52 PM



Martin says...
Volatility tomorrow...and into Monday.' It will now take a daily closing back above 1400 to stabilize gold. This implies we have lower to go.
" Key support lies at 1270 followed critical support at 1236-1233. A weekly closing beneath that level opens the door to a test of the 939.50 level". My god i am glad I went out at $1600..just luck..I needed the money
K Strong

Well, we are below the 1236 level so I imagine it is "look out below" for now!

-------------------------

jdimmick

1100's here we come

Baley

<< <i>

<< <i>I'm thinking there will be a lot of people in a few years who will say to themselves something along the lines of, "Dang! I knew I should have bought (more) silver when it was in the low $19 an ounce." >>



Or just as likely…
Dang! Why did I buy at $19 when it is now $12!

Just sayin' >>



Maybe, depends on what they did with the money instead. If they spent it on [consumption of whatever with nothing to show for it later but memories], then maybe they would have been better off buying the silver at $19, even if it was only $12 then, and maybe not (depends on the memories ). On the other hand, if they would have bought someThing else instead of the silver at $19 an ounce, and still have it, Whether they say Dang or Yay will depend on how the other thing did versus the silver when sell time comes.

OPA

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>I'm thinking there will be a lot of people in a few years who will say to themselves something along the lines of, "Dang! I knew I should have bought (more) silver when it was in the low $19 an ounce." >>



Or just as likely…
Dang! Why did I buy at $19 when it is now $12!

Just sayin' >>



Maybe, depends on what they did with the money instead. If they spent it on [consumption of whatever with nothing to show for it later but memories], then maybe they would have been better off buying the silver at $19, even if it was only $12 then, and maybe not (depends on the memories ). On the other hand, if they would have bought someThing else instead of the silver at $19 an ounce, and still have it, Whether they say Dang or Yay will depend on how the other thing did versus the silver when sell time comes. >>



I think, a lot, perhaps even most of us will face reality and say...."Dang, why did I try "catching a falling knife over the last 3 years," (including myself) should have sold ALL when silver was in the $40+ range."

timcoin

<< <i>

<< <i>I'm thinking there will be a lot of people in a few years who will say to themselves something along the lines of, "Dang! I knew I should have bought (more) silver when it was in the low $19 an ounce." >>



Or just as likely…
Dang! Why did I buy at $19 when it is now $12!

Just sayin' >>



Not sure I can agree with silver being just as likely to go to $12 as going up from $19, but I've lost money before, so maybe it is. Even so, I'm comfortable with taking my profits in the stock market and rebalancing it in to the depressed metals markets.

JohnnyCache

I think it would definitely shake out all the weak hands, particularly those who may be speculating or who have over invested money that they will end up needing later.
It would also very likely leave only those who truly understand the importance of holding, even just a small percentage, of their net worth in PM's as part of a diversified investment portfolio with any metals exposure.

Even in these volatile economic times, outside of this forum, I find very very few people who own any precious metals, never mind anyone who can even come close to a rather conservative, and somewhat mainstream approach, of holding somewhere around 5% of net worth.

By no means would I suggest this is a scientific approach, but just consider the following:

If we use the age bracket from a recent poll that indicated the highest percentage of people who owned PM's it would be someone around, give or take, 45 years of age.

If we look at someone age 45(+-) they are typically established in their profession and are just hitting their prime earning years. They should be mature and responsible by this point in time and have a vision and a plan for their future.

A significant percentage of these people own a home, own a couple of cars, have some savings, have a 401k, perhaps some banks CD's, perhaps some self managed investments outside their 401k's and like everyone else, they have stuff (in all it's various forms, from priceless to worthless).

I think its quite reasonable to expect that our typical person will still owe some $ on their house, their cars and will have some revolving debt
(credit cards). With that considered however I think they would still have a positive net worth.

Allow me to suggest (per couple) the following: $100,000 equity in primary home, $10,000 of value in two cars combined, $25,000 in savings and self managed investments, $200,000 in 401k accounts and $5,000 in stuff. Nothing outrageous in these assumptions, at least I don't think so. That's $340,000.00 of net worth (Assume I deducted all current liabilities).

With pm holdings at 5% of net worth this couple would have $17,000.00 in metals.

Our own polls show this is not likely the case, and this is a precious metals forum. Joe Average American does not hold PM's typically.

$12.00 silver for a protracted time period would push all but the serious, determined and the cautious out the door.
Maybe not in the first year or the second but come the 5th or 6th, you betcha. All those who recently purchased would take the hit and move on.
The $$ from the sale would not likely go to another investment but rather to everyday expenses.

PM hold

Age of PM buyers

TwoSides2aCoin

It was a dollar… then people started collecting them.

BAJJERFAN

<< <i>

Even in these volatile economic times, outside of this forum, I find very very few people who own any precious metals, never mind anyone who can even come close to a rather conservative, and somewhat mainstream approach, of holding somewhere around 5% of net worth.





Our own polls show this is not likely the case, and this is a precious metals forum. Joe Average American does not hold PM's typically.

[/L] >>



Then who in the heck is buying all of the silver?