Poll: Volatility in coin grading

mercurydimeguy

I've bought some ridiculously gorgeous coins in the past couple months in MS61 and MS62 holders. 6-7 years ago I would have bought them in 63 holders probably without much tumult. Even the AU58's I'm seeing in the market today seem a lot nicer than they did in 2006-2008 time frame. Maybe it's just what I am collecting now, but this also got me to thinking...

Does the volatility in coin grading at any specific service benefit more the collector or the dealer over time (over time is the key operative)? For example, some dealers might be offering slabbed 62 coins at 63-64 prices (and they might just sit there in their inventory) while others might be offering them at 62 market prices and moving inventory, but in hand the coin looks 63-64.

Interested in your take on this paradigm (which of course is not news, it has been happening for more than 2 decades). Let us know what you think, but also, write a small blurb as to why (e.g. the context behind your vote).

Cheers!

BryceM

Well, that's an old question isn't it. It's pretty obvious that grading is subjective and prone to shifting standards over time. It's also rather imprecise - more art than science and some variability is expected. As such there will always be a diferences in opinion and there will never be a time when every coin lives in its "correct" holder. There seems to be no perfect solution. Market acceptability seems to be the only vaguely objective standard that we can hang our hat on.

As to your original question, without sounding too disrespectful, I'd suggest shifting standards are most beneficial to the TPGs. In the course of a couple decades they might get three, ten, or twenty oppotunities to collect grading / re-grading / imaging / reconsideration / reholdering fees on a single coin. I see little advantage to the average collector - uncertainty does not create healthy markets. There are strong industry incentives to create a system that encourages frequent resubmission of coins. Otherwise, we'd eventually run out of new raw material - at least in quantities that they're used to seeing. Strangely though, the TPG's have provided more "certainty" than existed in the market before and this probably has much to do with the current health of the hobby.

The only collectors who might benefit are those who have a knack for picking winners, and then only if they actively buy and sell. That moves them slightly to the realm of dealer, even if informal. Dealers who make their living playing the regrade / crackout game can obviously beneift it they're skilled. Other dealers, who only want to broker transactions probably see the process as a tremendous nuisance. It takes time and money to run coins throught the grading machines, especially when they then need to make another trip to the sticker factory. It takes time and effort to track all this and inventory can be tied up in the mail for weeks before their product can hit the market.

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ricko

The profit edge will always go to the skilled grader - whether collector or dealer. The skill allows the accurate determination of an under graded specimen and thereby provides for opportunity. Those with limited skills will likely err more often than not. Cheers, RickO

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BryceM

<< <i>... So one could say PCGS has just gotten tighter and I have the proof with the old labels... >>



I'd be cautious with this line of thinking. You might be right, at least as far as the coins you resubmitted, but you don't know what happened to the coins after they were cracked. If you look at this like a scientist, actual proof can only be determined by doing a rigorous analysis of a wide variety of coins from a wide variety of sources (not from a single collector) over a specific time frame. Relyling on anecdotal evidence and applying what you "know" to other situations can cause a person to come to all sorts of incorrect conclusions.

Sonorandesertrat

'The profit edge will always go to the skilled grader - whether collector or dealer.'


This

ColonelJessup

<< <i>'The profit edge will always go to the skilled grader - whether collector or dealer.'


This >>



+1

Type2

I have to many coin in now to say....

PTVETTER

Sooo many are slaves to the sheet and other guides.

Too many are buying holders and not the coin.

However the better collectors have and always pay more than the guides for nice coins,

Those collections look better than the average coin hoard.

BillJones

Most dealers have to be at decent graders to stay in business. The dealers who can't grade, either specialize in bullion or develop a clientele that has more money than brains. Many collectors keep buying even if they are not very good at grading. Since dealers usually have more market savvy than many collectors, I'd say that dealers benefit when grades become a moving target.

Those who said that both benefit have a point, but it only comes out even between dealers and collectors who have as much or more expertise than most dealers.

lkeigwin

When you say "volatility in coin grading" are you referring to the fact that grade opinions vary? Or are you taking about trends (e.g., looser grading ~2005-7, tighter grading over the last several years)?

Why is "over time" the "key operative"? Not sure I get it. The sharp eye of a collector or dealer with keen grading skills can flip a coin in days or even hours.
Lance.

mercurydimeguy

<< <i>When you say "volatility in coin grading" are you referring to the fact that grade opinions vary? Or are you taking about trends (e.g., looser grading ~2005-7, tighter grading over the last several years)? >>





<< <i>Why is "over time" the "key operative"? Not sure I get it. The sharp eye of a collector or dealer with keen grading skills can flip a coin in days or even hours.
Lance. >>



I am referring to trends, which is why I commented that "over time" matters. In a liquid market when buying selling "in the moment" it is probably less relevant (as you have said).

MidLifeCrisis

<< <i>

<< <i>'The profit edge will always go to the skilled grader - whether collector or dealer.'


This >>



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