Alabama's path to a national championship

LodiBrewFan

For Alabama to threepeat, this is the likely schedule they will face:

Auburn #4. (10-1)

Missouri #5 (10-1)

FSU #2 (11-0)

All three would be played away from Bryant/Denny.

Beating three top five teams in a row is an almost impossible task.

lightningboy

Beating three top five teams in a row is an almost impossible task

Looking at it that way does seem very daunting.

However, we both know Saban will have them seeing 1 game at a time. And we also both know who the better team will be in each of those 3 games

markj111

The first one should not be tough. They have too much offense for Auburn's middling defense. Auburn cannot win unless they get the breaks/big plays. I do not know much about Missouri. FSU is a different story-tough team. UAT may well regret letting Jameis get away.

soundgard

Based on strength of schedule, if the top 3 teams go unbeaten the national championship game should be BAMA vs Ohio state.

1985fan

Ohio State, who's played exactly nobody this year, shouldn't sniff the national title game.

soundgard

<< <i>Ohio State, who's played exactly nobody this year, shouldn't sniff the national title game. >>



Wrong. If Ohio state wins out, their two best wins(Wisconsin and mich state) would be more impressive than FSU's two best wins(Clemson and Duke). Ohio state would be more deserving based on their strength of schedule (OSU 67TH) FSU(76TH).

augustaman

soundgard -
Ohio St had a home game against Wisconsin and won by a touchdown.
Florida St traveled to the #3 team in the country (Clemson) and totally blew them out by 5 touchdowns.....

and you really think the OSU resume is more impressive?

1985fan

If everyone wins out FSU deserves by a mile over OSU. Ohio state has struggled to beat teams elite teams should win easily.

orioles93

If OSU wins their last 2 games against Michigan and Michigan St. then they will have beaten a harder schedule than that of FSU. They will have beaten 7 teams with winning records (Buffalo, San Diego St, Wisc, Iowa, Penn St, Mich, and Mich St.) Compare that to FSU beating 6 teams with winning records (Pitt, Bethune Cookman, Boston College, Maryland, Clemson, and Miami.) And who the hell is bethune cookman? It is pretty obvious that Ohio State plays a harder schedule than Florida State and OSU has done much better. OSU has to play 2 good teams to end the year. FSU only has to play Florida.

1985fan

Michigan has exactly one good win on its record - a week 2 win at home against ND, and they've lost 4 of 6 coming down the stretch. They have the 43rd ranked strength of schedule.
Michigan St. lost to ND and beat Michigan, and have the 55th ranked strength of schedule.

Ignoring Florida because of their record also ignores they've played a top 15 ranked strength of schedule.

Ohio State has the 63rd ranked strength of schedule, FSU has the 41st. If both teams win out, FSU will rightfully play for the national title.

(SoS can be found

here.

augustaman

There is so much more that goes into calculating a better team than just strength of schedule.
It was said earlier that OSU has struggled against teams it should be beating more easily.
FSU is scoring over 50 points per game and even as much as 80 points in a game while
blowing out everyone on their schedule.
You can only play the teams on your schedule and FSU has done to all the teams on their schedule exactly what
a #1 or #2 team in the country should do to them.
Has OSU done the same - simple answer, no.

soundgard

FSU has one good win against a overrated Clemson. They have played a weaker schedule. Its been over 10 YEARS since a team has won 23 straight games. OSU is clearly more deserving. The ACC has always been a weak football conference.

SOS here
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

Ohio state(67)
FSU(76

mcadams

<< <i>Based on strength of schedule, if the top 3 teams go unbeaten the national championship game should be BAMA vs Ohio state. >>



If OSU had scheduled 1 or 2 halfway decent non-conference games this year, you'd be well on your to a championship game, but alas they did not, and therefore they will not. I believe OSU is good enough to be in the conversation, but I, like many others, will never choose to reward the kind of scheduling that OSU put together this year. You had 3 opportunities to sign a quality out of conference opponent and OSU choose Florida A&M, Buffalo, and San Diego State. That's why they are on the outside looking in.

I don't think FSU did a great job scheduling either. However, they went on the road and smoked a very good Clemson team. OSU doesn't have any wins that remotely compare to that.

1985fan

It's hilarious that the link you provided has FSU ranked number one, and OSU ranked 6th. Nice job!

soundgard

<< <i>

<< <i>Based on strength of schedule, if the top 3 teams go unbeaten the national championship game should be BAMA vs Ohio state. >>



If OSU had scheduled 1 or 2 halfway decent non-conference games this year, you'd be well on your to a championship game, but alas they did not, and therefore they will not. I believe OSU is good enough to be in the conversation, but I, like many others, will never choose to reward the kind of scheduling that OSU put together this year. You had 3 opportunities to sign a quality out of conference opponent and OSU choose Florida A&M, Buffalo, and San Diego State. That's why they are on the outside looking in.


I don't think FSU did a great job scheduling either. However, they went on the road and smoked a very good Clemson team. OSU doesn't have any wins that remotely compare to that. >>



Wisconsin would beat Clemson. That win is not any better. Like I said earlier. Wins over Wisconsin and mich state would be more impressive than duke and Clemson. FSU and Alabama all had weak NC schedules.

Goot

So much to reply to in this thread, yet not enough time. Oh man.

FSU had to fill in a canceled West Virginia game and unfortunately chose Idaho for a payday. Bethune and Nevada are standard early season games for most teams. ACC schedule is what it is. Florida State has not let anyone even sniff a competitive game besides Boston College while the team was still adjusting to Pruitts 3-4. The Clemson game was 51-7 until Clemson scored on our backups with 14 seconds to play. Ohio State has let the B1G softies like Northwestern, Illinois, Iowa, as well as the worst team in the PAC-12 hang around in games. Unfortunately, style matters. Ohio State hasn't had much besides against FAMU (slaughtered by Bethune Cookman in the Classic last weekend), Penn State and Purdue. World beaters in their own right. Look, OSU might be the 2nd or even best team in the country, and the thought of two undefeated seasons without hardware is rough, but it's really not as clear cut as some of y'all are making it out to be.

Crazy stat: Winston has thrown 18 passes in the 4th quarter this year. In 11 games. And 7 of those passes came against Miami. If our starters played 4 quarters instead of 2 it'd be scary.



Anyways, yes, that's an extremely tough stretch for Bama. Good thing they'll have a month off before the title game.

Goot

<< <i>

Wisconsin would beat Clemson. That win is not any better. Like I said earlier. Wins over Wisconsin and mich state would be more impressive than duke and Clemson. FSU and Alabama all had weak NC schedules. >>




51-14 (51-7 with 14 seconds left) on the road in one of the toughest places to play is not more impressive than a 31-24 win AT HOME? Even if Wisconsin is better than Clemson, it's not by much.

soundgard

<< <i>

<< <i>

Wisconsin would beat Clemson. That win is not any better. Like I said earlier. Wins over Wisconsin and mich state would be more impressive than duke and Clemson. FSU and Alabama all had weak NC schedules. >>




51-14 (51-7 with 14 seconds left) on the road in one of the toughest places to play is not more impressive than a 31-24 win AT HOME? Even if Wisconsin is better than Clemson, it's not by much. >>



That's all you got is one win?

Oh boy they beat Clemson. What have they done in the last 20 years?

coinkat

The real problem is computers, numbers and perception without looking at rivalries. For example, the self proclaimed experts were all over Ohio State for the 2 late touchdown 60-35 win against Illinois. That game so happens to be the second oldest Trophy game in the Big Ten. This rivalry has had some wild games-most notable was the 1968 game. Ohio State built up a 24-0 lead against a winless Illinois team that had lost to Notre Dame, Missouri and Kansas (all top 10 teams at some point during the season). Illinois scored 3 second half touchdowns followed by 2 point conversions to tie the score. Even though Ohio State won 31-24, they were National Champs for 1968. The year Ohio State beat Miami in the title game, Ohio State beat Illinois in overtime-

My point is simple- there are games that involve more than numbers which computers are unable to measure. Schedule strength and numbers seem to capture the attention of talking heads even though it does not summarize what really matters with certain games- and that is tradition.

In all fairness, Florida State has had a terrific season and would be a worthy candidate for the title game. The Clemson win was huge- however, how many times have FSU and Clemson played each other- perhaps 33 to 38 times, if that? Its a different type of win- still very impressive- and seems to be part of the new age of college football.

stown

<< <i>My point is simple- there are games that involve more than numbers which computers are unable to measure. Schedule strength and numbers seem to capture the attention of talking heads even though it does not summarize what really matters with certain games- and that is tradition. >>

Goot

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>

Wisconsin would beat Clemson. That win is not any better. Like I said earlier. Wins over Wisconsin and mich state would be more impressive than duke and Clemson. FSU and Alabama all had weak NC schedules. >>




51-14 (51-7 with 14 seconds left) on the road in one of the toughest places to play is not more impressive than a 31-24 win AT HOME? Even if Wisconsin is better than Clemson, it's not by much. >>




That's all you got is one win?

Oh boy they beat Clemson. What have they done in the last 20 years? >>




All you talked about is that one win. Look, I hate these pi**ing contests because they solve nothing. You're an Ohio State fan or B1G fan and want them to play in the game. I'm an FSU student and fan and want them to play in the title game. I'll never convince you FSU is better and we'll likely never find out. That's why the playoff will be fun next year.


Also, your timing's off. In the last 20 years they've won 2 national titles. Yeah, about five years in the early 2000s sucked but every program has their down years and I don't see what that has to do with the 2013 season.

Happy Thanksgiving, folks.

1985fan

<< <i>
Oh boy they beat Clemson. What have they done in the last 20 years? >>



What does the last 20 years have to do with 2013? Or is that the last gasp of a guy so soundly defeated he has to retreat to history?

Brick

It's a shame the +1 doesn't start this year. Ohio State and Florida State would play each other for the right to be soundly beaten by Alabama.

soundgard

<< <i>

<< <i>
Oh boy they beat Clemson. What have they done in the last 20 years? >>



What does the last 20 years have to do with 2013? Or is that the last gasp of a guy so soundly defeated he has to retreat to history? >>



Soundly defeated based on what? Ohio state deserves to be play in the national championship game over FSU. FSU has a weaker schedule. So far they have only played against 1 defense ranked in the top 30.(Clemson 27).

mcadams

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>
Oh boy they beat Clemson. What have they done in the last 20 years? >>



What does the last 20 years have to do with 2013? Or is that the last gasp of a guy so soundly defeated he has to retreat to history? >>



Soundly defeated based on what? Ohio state deserves to be play in the national championship game over FSU. FSU has a weaker schedule. So far they have only played against 1 defense ranked in the top 30.(Clemson 27). >>




Soundgard- Don't take this the wrong way, but I think you're out of touch with how the rest of the country views the Big 10. Almost no one would agree with you that OSU's home win against Wisconsin is more impressive than FSU's road win...in one of the most hostile environments in the country...at night against Clemson. Its not just about computer strength of schedule being marginally higher for 1 school vs. the other. If it were a meaningful gap- Say a top 10 schedule versus a 100th ranked schedule, then I agree with you. But there is no discernible difference in the computer schedule rankings between FSU and OSU. Here's what voters see- 1) As I've said before, OSU intentionally put together an extraordinarily lousy out of conference schedule. Your AD is to blame here, not the voters. 2) OSU doesn't have a really big win to speak of. When you have a lousy schedule, you need 1 primetime huge game to garner attention. FSU has that. OSU doesn't.

And I'm not a FSU fan, I'm an SEC guy.

soundgard

Um, AND FSU HAD A TOUGH NON-CONFERENCE SCHEDULE?

mcadams

<< <i>Um, AND FSU HAD A TOUGH NON-CONFERENCE SCHEDULE? >>



I've said earlier in this thread that FSU's non-conference schedule is not great. However, they play a non-conference rivalry game against Florida every year and people respect that. And even with Florida being waaaay own this year.....FSU's win over Florida is still more impressive than any non-conference win that OSU had this year. OSU didn't even make an attempt to schedule a quality non-conference foe. Your AD, knowing that the Big 10 is down, definitely should have added some quality games to the schedule. Either 1) He'd rather you guys go 11-0 every year and doesn't care about championships 2) He doesn't think you're good enough to win any more big games and fears scheduling them or 3) He doesn't understand the landscape in college football and isn't very good at his job. I'll go with #3.

And the most important thing that's been mentioned here several times, but you've ignored, is the fact that FSU has a huge marquee win and OSU does not.

Its not a wide gap between FSU and OSU, but it is a clear gap in accomplishment.

MGLICKER

AAARRRGGGHHH please not OT....nothing worse than college OT.

Boopotts

<< <i>AAARRRGGGHHH please not OT....nothing worse than college OT. >>



Looks like somebody heard you.

Dave99B

Dumb idea to try a FG from that distance. Very dumb.

Miss it, and you have a bunch of offensive lineman trying to tackle a sprinter. Doh!

Nice win Auburn!

Dave

soundgard

<< <i>

<< <i>Um, AND FSU HAD A TOUGH NON-CONFERENCE SCHEDULE? >>



I've said earlier in this thread that FSU's non-conference schedule is not great. However, they play a non-conference rivalry game against Florida every year and people respect that. And even with Florida being waaaay own this year.....FSU's win over Florida is still more impressive than any non-conference win that OSU had this year. OSU didn't even make an attempt to schedule a quality non-conference foe. Your AD, knowing that the Big 10 is down, definitely should have added some quality games to the schedule. Either 1) He'd rather you guys go 11-0 every year and doesn't care about championships 2) He doesn't think you're good enough to win any more big games and fears scheduling them or 3) He doesn't understand the landscape in college football and isn't very good at his job. I'll go with #3.

And the most important thing that's been mentioned here several times, but you've ignored, is the fact that FSU has a huge marquee win and OSU does not.

Its not a wide gap between FSU and OSU, but it is a clear gap in accomplishment. >>



FSU looked like crap in the first half against an awful florida team.

1985fan

<< <i>
FSU looked like crap in the first half against an awful florida team. >>



Looked like crap, but was leading 17-0 at halftime? And last time I checked, it was GAMES and not HALVES that determines the game. Or are you that pathetically desperate to prop up your team that you'll resort this sort of nonsense to keep your head above water?

Meanwhile, OSU allows a furious fourth quarter rally by a bad Michigan team that nearly costs them the game. Which is more impressive? A one point win in which they could have lost if the two point conversion had been good, or a 30 point DRUBBING? The fact that you're reaching (badly, I might add) to try to minimize a 30 point win while ignoring your team barely holding on shows how completely you've lost this debate.

UnwoundSage

Ohio State should have lost and made for some interesting conference championship games. I'm really hoping Michigan State beats them just to see the typical BCS late season mayhem one more time.

soundgard

<< <i>

<< <i>
FSU looked like crap in the first half against an awful florida team. >>



Looked like crap, but was leading 17-0 at halftime? And last time I checked, it was GAMES and not HALVES that determines the game. Or are you that pathetically desperate to prop up your team that you'll resort this sort of nonsense to keep your head above water?

Meanwhile, OSU allows a furious fourth quarter rally by a bad Michigan team that nearly costs them the game. Which is more impressive? A one point win in which they could have lost if the two point conversion had been good, or a 30 point DRUBBING? The fact that you're reaching (badly, I might add) to try to minimize a 30 point win while ignoring your team barely holding on shows how completely you've lost this debate. >>



Ohio state beat a team with a winning record. FSU beat a team with a losing record. FSU has a weaker schedule.

1985fan

<< <i>
Ohio state beat a team with a winning record. FSU beat a team with a losing record. FSU has a weaker schedule. >>



False.


SoS Ranking

41 Florida St (10-0)

60 Ohio State (10-0)

Game over for you.

UnwoundSage

<< <i>
SoS Ranking

>>



Interesting. 9 of the top 20 are all SEC teams.

Brick

Alabama drops to #4. Florida State loses in ACC Championship. Ohio State loses in Big Ten Championship. Alabama, Auburn play a second time. Only problem is BCS hates rematches.

1985fan

<< <i>Alabama drops to #4. Florida State loses in ACC Championship. Ohio State loses in Big Ten Championship. Alabama, Auburn play a second time. Only problem is BCS hates rematches. >>



Do they? Didn't Alabama and LSU just recently play a rematch in the title game?

1985fan

OSU keeping it 'classy' after falling behind by 7 against Michigan.

Punk move, OSU.

soundgard

Ohio state should be #1.

soundgard

<< <i>

<< <i>
Ohio state beat a team with a winning record. FSU beat a team with a losing record. FSU has a weaker schedule. >>



False.


SoS Ranking

41 Florida St (10-0)

60 Ohio State (10-0)

Game over for you. >>



According to sagerin

Fsu 76

Ohio state 67

coinkat

What happens if Missouri wins the SEC Championship- and both Ohio State and Florida State finish unbeaten?

Does Missouri play for the National Championship?

I think it is a fair question given the overall tone of this thread.

MGLICKER

Purists hate the season ending BCS conflict, I find it hugely entertaining. Anyone that thinks that the 4 team playoff system will quiet the critics, forget about it. Look at March Madness, 64 plus teams is not enough to quell the debate of who is on the bubble and how the seedings are chosen.

Great time of the year.

Brick

I'd like to see an 8 team playoff. One creampuff game could be deleted from the schedule (oops, can't lose the income) The first weekend in December the first round could be played then the stage is set for the final four to be played in conjuncture with the Bowls. Losers of the first round could be allowed to accept bids from minor Bowls.

edmundfitzgerald

Alabama may have set a record for negative points in the field goal kicking game.


Three missed field goals, and one field goal returned for a touchdown. -16 points.

edmundfitzgerald

I think it's also worth comparing Missouri's, Auburn's, and Alabama's only losses.

Missouri lost at home (to South Carolina).

Auburn lost by 14 on the road (at LSU)

Alabama lost by 6 on the last play of the game (at #4 Auburn, the highest ranked team of the three)



My guess is that it will be an Auburn-Florida State BCS championship game.

1985fan

<< <i>Ohio state should be #1. >>



My nominee for worst homer post of the year. OSU has beaten NOBODY of note. Auburn just beat the number one school and has a much tougher schedule. OSU shouldn't even be in the top five with their total creampuff schedule.

MGLICKER

<< <i>

<< <i>Ohio state should be #1. >>



My nominee for worst homer post of the year. OSU has beaten NOBODY of note. Auburn just beat the number one school and has a much tougher schedule. OSU shouldn't even be in the top five with their total creampuff schedule. >>



Disagree. Consecutive undefeated seasons is impressive. They are a Big Ten team, not a Mid American hack.

Before you call me a homer for OSU, I am from Michigan.

1985fan

Big ten might as well be a mid major conference now due to the lack of anything resembling competition in the entire conference. Running the table there and scheduling and beating nobody of note in non conference and you have a paper tiger in OSU.

Brick

OSUs offense is Championship game worthy. That's not even debatable. OSUs defense is mediocre at best. Ohio State should be a huge underdog against most teams in the discussion. As a lifelong Buckeye fan I still have to acknowledge OSU is not one of the two best teams in the country. However they play in a major conference and have beaten every team that has lined up against them. If they beat Michigan (excuse my profanity) State they deserve to have a chance to upset a superior team in the Title Game. I'm afraid many voters are afraid of another lopsided game and will vote OSU out.