Poll - Where will Silver Finally Find Support in this Market?

JohnnyCache

Using what ever means you choose: Your gut, charts, market sentiment, astrology, mining data, news articles, your fortune from last nights Chinese food, it doesn't matter.

Answer the poll question: At what price do you think support will come in to form a strong, sustainable, bottom in silver?

Do you think the PM's metals market as a whole will continue on this downward trend through the better part of next year? Especially if tapering should actually begin. Why or why not.

OPA

$19.80

DrBuster

18.50 just because isn't that what the low hit this year in the spring for that day?

ricko

The rally is coming.... have faith.... Cheers, RickO

mrpaseo

First let me say that I am in no way qualified to answer your question... but I have a question.

Let's say for arguments sake, there are three mines that are mining Silver. They determine what it costs them to run the mine and process out the Silver by actually running the mine. Let's assume they determine that it costs $5 per ounce to mine Silver.

They then sell said silver for a small profit, to the big wigs who sell it to the middle man for a profit who sell it to another middle man for a profit who sell it to another middle man for a profit and finally they sell it to us for a profit.

By the time we see it, it's $20 per ounce or whatever the going market is...

Back up to the beginning... As I understand it, if a mine determines that it is not cost effective to mine out the silver, they will in turn stop mining the silver. This causes a demand because there is less silver available thus driving up the prices.

Less production + same demand = Rise in prices (Cost)

Remember, it's not the demand that is causing the profit loss, it's the falling market/value of an ounce of silver.

...Too many variables for me to computer this...lol. The best way to decide is to throw a dart at your list and see what you hit.

Edited to add... In trying to work this out... I forgot my question...lol. The bottom line is, there is no way to come to a conclusion to answer your question other than plain old luck, or the dart method that I described above.

That said, I chose $18.00 Just that inner gut feeling.... Well sh!t, I think I just answered your question without going all into this long post. Sorry about that.

roadrunner

Since approx 50% of the world's mined silver comes from the by products of base metal and gold mining, you will never see the silver supply drop any lower than the base metal operations.
As long as it's profitable to mine lead, zinc, tin, copper, gold, etc. then silver will show up. Silver's support will be more technical that it will be fundamental (ie mine supply, physical supply vs. demand, etc.)

Silver Institute

guitarwes

I choose 18.50 mostly because of Dr. Buster's reasoning (before I even read his post).

Steve27

Why isn't $20.00 a choice?

Baley

<< <i>First let me say that I am in no way qualified to answer your question... but I have a question.

Let's say for arguments sake, there are three mines that are mining Silver. They determine what it costs them to run the mine and process out the Silver by actually running the mine. Let's assume they determine that it costs $5 per ounce to mine Silver.

They then sell said silver for a small profit, to the big wigs who sell it to the middle man for a profit who sell it to another middle man for a profit who sell it to another middle man for a profit and finally they sell it to us for a profit.

By the time we see it, it's $20 per ounce or whatever the going market is...

Back up to the beginning... As I understand it, if a mine determines that it is not cost effective to mine out the silver, they will in turn stop mining the silver. This causes a demand because there is less silver available thus driving up the prices.

Less production + same demand = Rise in prices (Cost)

Remember, it's not the demand that is causing the profit loss, it's the falling market/value of an ounce of silver.

...Too many variables for me to computer this...lol. The best way to decide is to throw a dart at your list and see what you hit.

Edited to add... In trying to work this out... I forgot my question...lol. The bottom line is, there is no way to come to a conclusion to answer your question other than plain old luck, or the dart method that I described above.

That said, I chose $18.00 Just that inner gut feeling.... Well sh!t, I think I just answered your question without going all into this long post. Sorry about that. >>



Let's say, for arguments sake, that much of the world's silver is mined as a nearly "free" by-product of copper, iron, lead, and tin mines, rather than stand-alone silver mines.

dpoole

I'll speculate that the job market/demand is going to remain weak for the foreseeable future (mainly because of continued destruction of jobs by technology, and continued uncertainty due to governmental floundering), and that silver will bounce along around these levels for a good long while.

$18.00.

VanHalen

I picked $19 and will be buying a chunk at that level. $18? Go all in.

johnny9434

i think $18.50 maybe $18. we shall see.

PerryHall

Can we assume that most PM stackers are pessimists and they would tend to predict on the low side?

mrpaseo

<< <i>Let's say, for arguments sake, that much of the world's silver is mined as a nearly "free" by-product of copper, iron, lead, and tin mines, rather than stand-alone silver mines. >>



lol, Valid point.

JohnnyCache

Wow, I find the poll results rather positive.

I thought I would have witnessed a far greater degree of negativity here.


In fact, honestly, I fully expected the poll to be heavily tipped toward the low end with a majority predicting a price below $16.50.


I myself felt $15.00 was the next really strong level of support should silver be pushed hard past $20.


Not many people offered thoughts on whether 2014 would trend up, down or sideways. I'm guessing sideways, but only after it breaches $20.


I appreciate the input from everyone!


JC

DrBuster

Sideways this year, play the peaks and valleys as always unless we get a political or financial event to adjust play.

rawteam1

paper silver has been at support since may...
this the third attempt at current support level $20.14...
monthly close below that would be the death knell, then support is $12.50...

cohodk

Silver's support will be more technical that it will be fundamental

Unmolested reason and logic. I like it.

derryb

95% of silver price support is fundamental. The technical support has been drained since $45. Loss of remaining technical support is what will take it below $20. A bottom of 16.50 will most likely be seen before the market gets legs.

TwoSides2aCoin

I don't know where the floor is, but if anyone is waiting to buy it at spot, it's going to be a long wait.

VanHalen

<< <i>paper silver has been at support since may...
this the third attempt at current support level $20.14...
monthly close below that would be the death knell, then support is $12.50... >>



Sounds good to me. Next support at 40% lower? That's almost free with the current value of USD.

rawteam1

$12.72 right now to be more exact...

piecesofme

Well, I said $12-14 based on what I said in this thread on Monday November 18, 2013 9:01 PM

cmon sub $20 silver thread

edited to say:
This is with regards to paper silver. The more paper drops all it means is the premium just widens with physical. Think back 4-5 years ago when Spot was (just an exmaple) $13, you couldnt buy a generic 10 oz'er for less than $185.