Gold at 1240-1250 Thursday close
jdimmick
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Just got word from my gold buyer that gold would would close at 1240-1250 range on Thursday? Do you believe it or is he just trying to buy some last minute gold
I will add, he has a very good success rate at calling significant changes in price up and down
I will add, he has a very good success rate at calling significant changes in price up and down
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Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
Just another guess.
Sometimes however even a blind squirrel will find an acorn.
JMHO as always.
<< <i>Just got word from my gold buyer that gold would would close at 1240-1250 range on Thursday? Do you believe it or is he just trying to buy some last minute gold
I will add, he has a very good success rate at calling significant changes in price up and down >>
He probably read it somewhere on the internet so he knows it has to be true.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
but I'm expecting metals to decline going into "tax loss selling season", the end of November should be brutal for metals, and some folks could be front-running that decline over the next couple of weeks in an attempt to sell early.
Just about anyone who bought PM ETFs or miners in the past 2 years (with a few days' exceptions when metals were lower than they are today) is underwater,
and they can sell and use the realized loss to offset taxable gains in their profitable trades.
not sure if the wash rule applies to physical, but the rebuying of the position has to be > 30 days from the sale (before or after), in order to apply the loss to offset gains elsewhere.
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<< <i>Just got word from my gold buyer that gold would would close at 1240-1250 range on Thursday? Do you believe it or is he just trying to buy some last minute gold
I will add, he has a very good success rate at calling significant changes in price up and down >>
I don't believe the gold buyer. But I use my own timing tools.
Maybe a week from Thursday $1255 is possible (OpEx). It would be a stretch to fall that far in the next 2 days w/consolidation patterns continuing to play out. With Friday being the non-farm payroll report the odds of a strong
dip are much greater on Friday morning. I'd sort of expect Thursday to be a flat day as traders remain steady in front of Friday's 8:30 am report. I think we'll get a swing on Friday...just not confident of direction. There's still an
unfinished large gap in spot gold at $1329 from Halloween. I'd sort of expected that to get filled before heading into this month's bottoming cycle due in the next 4-12 trading days. A break of the last low at $1251 will send a lot
of bulls running for cover. The computer algo's will be dumping like crazy on a $1250 cross. So the fact that your gold buyer listed a range of $1240-$1250 seems a bit amateurish to me. A break of $1250 could/should quickly
send gold right to $1223-$1226 and possibly sub $1200. I'm leaning towards $1275-$1288 as being the limits on a possible next move down into next week. If it gets through there could be trouble.
Silver will see 24.50 before 20
Any care to "say" otherwise?
Looks like my buyer was bs'ing. I would agree more with rr commentary.
jim
<< <i>ECB meeting on Thursday. >>
When would any news from the ECB meeting appear on Thursday?
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shorting gold futures if he was right.
$8800 margin per contract worth $131600 on the Dec contract.
At $1250 gold he would be up 75% on his margin in 24 hours.
Or, he can just get Twitter tonight when the IPO is priced.
"the longer you wait to cash out of the US dollar, the less you're going to get for your winnings."
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
<< <i> I guess somebody's dollars got stronger, mine didn't. >>
Some do not obsess on the relative strength or weakness of the dollar, which is beyond their control.
Instead they focus time and energy on earning more of them. Precious metals were good for earning more dollars from 2000 to 2011.
Not so much, any more.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
<< <i>as said often, dollar index has nothing to do with spending value of the dollar in the US. It is only a comparison of the dollar against other major currencies. It's only real use is for FOREX traders. >>
It's other use is to show gullible Joe Six Packs that the dollar really isn't losing purchasing power....because the media can point to the USDX and show it steady to rising the past couple of years.
Even while his purchasing power shrinks each year, the media tells him what the level of the USDollar is. And that makes J6P question his own experiences of his pay check getting him less and less each year.
J6P is kept in a state of confusion with the USDX, jobs report, CPI, GDP, interest rates, and other economic buffoonery.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>Another thing some people do, to make their point, is personify "Joe 6 pack" as if he's one guy, and then portray him as a really stupid guy who never gets a raise. >>
He's not stupid, just economically under-educated and economically uninterested. He tends to rely on the ticker at the bottom of the TV screen for his gauge of the economy - "green good, red bad." He tends to think those calling the economic shots must know what they are doing. He's most of America and he's ultimately responsible for what America becomes; however, he forgets he has this power.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
.
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<< <i>Joe/Jane Six Pack is responsible for electing our current Congress, Senate, and President. I rest my case. Most don't have a clue about our fractional reserve/money multiplier, debt-based, fiat monetary system, what backs it, who/what the FED is, boom/bust cycles, otc derivatives, Libor-Metals-Currency-Interest rate-MBS rigging, etc. I'd bet they'd approve or think it normal that JPM or GS can go an entire year w/o a single losing stock market trade. Talk about luck!
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The genius of representative government was that such "ignorant" J6pack types could select among their number someone wise and willing to represent them in a constitutionally-balanced government, to manage the common defense and the general welfare, so they could apply their energy, their accumulated wisdom or lack thereof, to the immediate human condition.
I expect that many of our number now, worried about the bills, the troubled marriage and the wayward children, may not know about the intricacies of the Fed or the name of the Speaker of the House when surprised by a microphone shoved before their nose on the street. And I fully understand that if these many do not attend with at least occasional care to the quality of their representatives, they will eventually suffer the erosion of the common weal the Constitution was contrived to provide.
Yet the social equivalent of J6Pack has always been the backbone and bulwark of any civilization that has ever existed, precisely BECAUSE he/she has attended to the demands of the day-to-day, inevitably to the detriment at times to their ignorance of more remote minutiae.
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
<< <i>Just got word from my gold buyer that gold would would close at 1240-1250 range on Thursday? Do you believe it or is he just trying to buy some last minute gold
I will add, he has a very good success rate at calling significant changes in price up and down >>
I believe he should keep his day job, as long as it is not as a fortune teller or a weatherman.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
<< <i>
<< <i>Just got word from my gold buyer that gold would would close at 1240-1250 range on Thursday? Do you believe it or is he just trying to buy some last minute gold
I will add, he has a very good success rate at calling significant changes in price up and down >>
I believe he should keep his day job, as long as it is not as a fortune teller or a weatherman.
Or he could be off by one week in his forecast
<< <i>He's only 24hrs and 35 bucks from being right. >>
"Only" $35 is huge in metals as is 24 hrs. You just might see closer to $1300 by Monday/Tuesday to flush out all the fresh shorts that jumped in today.
Whatever Jim's gold expert's reasoning was for Thursday (ECB rate decision?) it pushed gold down briefly to $1296. So in that respect they were "only" $45 off for Thursday. And gold climbed back to
$1314 shortly thereafter showing that the move was sort of contrived in the first place. The expert also missed the run to a $1325 weekly high on Thursday morning.
Friday's NFP jobs report Whipsaw did just that. A trip to $1281.00........right smack dab in the middle of the $1275-$1288 first step target zone. I was off by 50c. There's still another week or so left in this monthly
gold cycle so we still might get to $1255 yet. The NY Traders that were left out of the $1288-$1311 rally zone a few weeks ago got their wish and played in the $1280's sandbox today. The slate has been wiped clean.
GLD got within 30 cents of filling its huge October gap (ie $1377.50/oz gold). That was probably good enough for today
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>J6P is watching his stocks go up, up, up. Maybe he isn't as stupid as we like to think. So far he's proven to be smarter than many of us. >>
JPM is watching his stocks go up. J6P is counting on his social security "retirement" plan.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>J6P is watching his stocks go up, up, up. Maybe he isn't as stupid as we like to think. So far he's proven to be smarter than many of us. >>
If J6P is really mainstream/mainstreet America, he has little to nothing in any equity market. Get outside the top 20% and it's peanuts in their 401K relatively speaking with the bottom 50% having none whatsoever.
The top quintile has realized 99% of the equity market gains over the past 5 years.
The top 10% has 95% of it. The top 5% has 90% of it. J6P is not in the top quintile and definitely not in the top 10%. He's trying to keep his bills paid and his family fed on a shrinking paycheck and a deflating USD.
<< <i>J6P is watching his stocks go up, up, up. Maybe he isn't as stupid as we like to think. So far he's proven to be smarter than many of us. >>
I think most Joe's have been long out of the stock market, especially after the crash of 2008-2009 and then the 2011 dump. They don't trust these markets like they did in the 1990's.
It's the HFT's and FED that have been pushing the market up this year. If you want to be the final bag holder feel free to jump in. And this is when JP6 starts to think it's "safe" to re-enter the markets so they
don't miss buying near the top. When Bernanke leaves the FED....so does the Bernanke "put." The Joe's still have a recollection of buying in 1999 and then selling in 2002/2003. They repeated that same action
by buying in 2006-2007 and then selling in fall 2008/spring 2009. A lot of them have too much emotional baggage to swing for a 3rd strike.
I think finding Joe Six Packs that have been in this market since 2011 or even 2009 would be as hard as finding that someone who bought silver at $46-$49 in April 2011. But if J6P wants to buy into a 13 year megaphone
pattern that is on the 5th and final leg and just about into the upper trend line.....he is welcome to it. The last one of these that was large was from 1966-1973. It pales next to the current one. Of course back in the 1970's
we had restraints and regulations on the monetary and financial systems....there are essentially none today. I'll make a list of these restraints below.........................................
1. ????
2. ????
I'm still thinking.
Of course it will correct. Nothing grows to the sky. (and don't say, "debt does" because that's not a tree or tower, it's a hole)
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>
<< <i>J6P is watching his stocks go up, up, up. Maybe he isn't as stupid as we like to think. So far he's proven to be smarter than many of us. >>
If J6P is really mainstream/mainstreet America, he has little to nothing in any equity market. Get outside the top 20% and it's peanuts in their 401K relatively speaking with the bottom 50% having none whatsoever.
The top quintile has realized 99% of the equity market gains over the past 5 years.
The top 10% has 95% of it. The top 5% has 90% of it. J6P is not in the top quintile and definitely not in the top 10%. He's trying to keep his bills paid and his family fed on a shrinking paycheck and a deflating USD. >>
Of course J6P is not in the top-- this is by definition. However 65% of Americans own homes and more than half own stocks. Fortunately more people have benefited from owning stocks and bonds than those hurt by owning PMs. Imagine if 60% of Americans had suffered through a 30-60% decline in their investments.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Concerning home ownership, most all Americans that are not now negative in their equity have seen a drastic reduction in their equity. More than 60% of homeowners have suffered a 30-60% decline in that investment, the single largest investment for most.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>J6P is watching his stocks go up, up, up. Maybe he isn't as stupid as we like to think. So far he's proven to be smarter than many of us. >>
If J6P is really mainstream/mainstreet America, he has little to nothing in any equity market. Get outside the top 20% and it's peanuts in their 401K relatively speaking with the bottom 50% having none whatsoever.
The top quintile has realized 99% of the equity market gains over the past 5 years.
The top 10% has 95% of it. The top 5% has 90% of it. J6P is not in the top quintile and definitely not in the top 10%. He's trying to keep his bills paid and his family fed on a shrinking paycheck and a deflating USD. >>
Of course J6P is not in the top-- this is by definition. However 65% of Americans own homes and more than half own stocks. Fortunately more people have benefited from owning stocks and bonds than those hurt by owning PMs. Imagine if 60% of Americans had suffered through a 30-60% decline in their investments. >>
Yes, and it's also true that of the 50% who own stocks the majority hold IRAs and 401Ks that did lose 30-60% in 2008-2009. Now they've gained that back if they didn't cash out and what does that mean for most of the holders of equities? Their retirement accounts went from $40k to $20k and are now back to $45k or if they had a big chunk in retirement "savings" they had $80K that went to $40k and is now back to $90K.
The much touted 50% of Americans own stocks is misleading at best; Another statistic designed to paint pretty picture. 95% of the gains in the equity markets over the last 5 years, $12 trillion in gains, are in the hands of the top 10%. The 5% of the pie available to the "other" 40% who own equities just got them back to where they were in 2007!
Washington and Wall Street can twist it any way they want to but the reality of Main Street America is far different than inside the Beltway or on Manhattan Island. The stock market pumping is a quasi-trickle-down that results in a golden shower for 250 million Americans.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>J6P is watching his stocks go up, up, up. Maybe he isn't as stupid as we like to think. So far he's proven to be smarter than many of us. >>
If J6P is really mainstream/mainstreet America, he has little to nothing in any equity market. Get outside the top 20% and it's peanuts in their 401K relatively speaking with the bottom 50% having none whatsoever.
The top quintile has realized 99% of the equity market gains over the past 5 years.
The top 10% has 95% of it. The top 5% has 90% of it. J6P is not in the top quintile and definitely not in the top 10%. He's trying to keep his bills paid and his family fed on a shrinking paycheck and a deflating USD. >>
Of course J6P is not in the top-- this is by definition. However 65% of Americans own homes and more than half own stocks. Fortunately more people have benefited from owning stocks and bonds than those hurt by owning PMs. Imagine if 60% of Americans had suffered through a 30-60% decline in their investments. >>
Yes, and it's also true that of the 50% who own stocks the majority hold IRAs and 401Ks that did lose 30-60% in 2008-2009. Now they've gained that back if they didn't cash out and what does that mean for most of the holders of equities? Their retirement accounts went from $40k to $20k and are now back to $45k or if they had a big chunk in retirement "savings" they had $80K that went to $40k and is now back to $90K.
The much touted 50% of Americans own stocks is misleading at best; Another statistic designed to paint pretty picture. 95% of the gains in the equity markets over the last 5 years, $12 trillion in gains, are in the hands of the top 10%. The 5% of the pie available to the "other" 40% who own equities just got them back to where they were in 2007!
Washington and Wall Street can twist it any way they want to but the reality of Main Street America is far different than inside the Beltway or on Manhattan Island. The stock market pumping is a quasi-trickle-down that results in a golden shower for 250 million Americans. >>
The people who built that capital (plant, equipment, products, distribution channels, etc.) own most of the the capital, of course jqp can buy little pieces of companies, and companies raise money to invest in the business by selling shares to institutional investors and the public, and many average people invest in stocks in brokerage accounts and through mutual funds and retirement plans, but it should not be surprising that no one handed the general public people the ownership of factories, farmland, laboratories, stores, warehouses, inventory, etc. Someone and groups of someones built everything that everyone buys and consumes every day, if JQP or joe six pack abs wants to own some of the wealth of the country, he can earn it or not, as each individual chooses. A good way to participate in the collective efforts of very hard working people is to buy stock shares in the companies that introduce innovative products, if the products are successful the stock of the publicly-held companies tends to go up, and those shares that represent fractional ownership of companies in which the management and employees are not successful in business tend to go down. Overall, because successful companies tend to stay public and endure over years and generations, the "stock market" tends to go up, and that's why the historical rate of return is among the top asset classes and why people invest in mutual funds in Iras and 401ks. Those who try to time these markets tend to let emotions get the better of them and someone else ends up with their wealth, that much we agree upon, but I do not understand, please clear this up, is John Q. Public or Joe Six Pack (the half that don't have stocks) too stupid to invest in stocks, or too smart to invest in stocks, like some folks on here claim to be?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>... please clear this up, is John Q. Public or Joe Six Pack (the half that don't have stocks) too stupid to invest in stocks, or too smart to invest in stocks, like some folks on here claim to be? >>
They don't have the money. Intelligence, initiative, stupid, or smarts have little to do with it. The fact that the top 5% of almost all the equity market gains over the last 5 years is no surprise to anyone. The mainstream media, the politicians, and Wall Street are all in the top 1%, they only report what they want you to hear/know.
Get outside of the top quintile in wealth/income and look around. It's tough and getting tougher every day.
Washington and Wall Street can twist it any way they want to but the reality of Main Street America is far different than inside the Beltway or on Manhattan Island. The stock market pumping is a quasi-trickle-down that results in a golden shower for 250 million Americans. >>
Pretty funny. can I use it?
The first big "crash" I remember was in '88, it was over before you could worry about it. Then there was the '99 tech crash, I had never invested heavily in that sector and didn't do too bad. When was the last, 09? That one did hurt but PM's, REITS, some bonds, and Blue Chip dividend payers got me through. Now I'm up again, I'm about ready to add to my cash fund, I keep at least two years of what I need and now may be a good time to make it three years. If gold gets down to the $1000 range I would be a buyer.
I don't know what the economy is going to do, no one does, but I do know that I can't live on what the bank will pay you, and PM'S and gold funds don't throw off much so I have to take some risks. I'm retired by the way, so there is no "new" money coming in, or at least not much.
And by the by, I have a sizeable amount of antiques and coins that I sell from time to time, I wish I had bought more "stuff" when I could.
I would venture a guess that, of those that do not have any money in the market, the majority are just simply too poor.
100% percent of their income, earned or otherwise, goes to the day by day needs.
Others may not participate due to lack of exposure or knowledge regarding how the market works. Some perhaps out of fear of the unknown, fear that they could loose what they may have earned/accumulated.
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It's one thing to build real capital through innovation, equipment, production, etc. It's entirely different to have share prices handed back and forth between competing high frequency trading computers over the past 4 years. This is where 70% or more of the stock market volume has come from....algo's and bots trading back and forth in milli-seconds. It reminds me of the key date mania cycle from 2003-2008 when key date US coins traded back and forth between dealers and larger speculators at ever higher prices. The poor collectors could barely get a bid on as the prices were pushed up. Of course today, those same dealers and specs are happy to dump all the 93-s dollars and 16-d Mercs on any collector who wants one at these elevated prices. Can someone tell me that the big US banks and hedge funds that make up most of the US trading are innovative and building capital over the past 4 years to push the SM to 11% higher than it was in 2007? "Innovative" and "capital creation" banking? I'd call it innovative money laundering. I guess foreclosing and flipping rental properties is building capital? How can insolvent, too big to fail banks that have 30X more liabilities than assets be building capital? It's been shown over and over again that maintaining interest rates unnaturally low destroys capital. That's what we've been doing for years now.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear