Price Forecast 2014 - PM's?
KUCH
Posts: 1,186
Here is a price forecast (2014) by one of our suppliers:
Steel (scrap) +2.3%
Steel (Hot Rolled) +2.3%
Plastic +3%
Tungsten Flat
Alunimum +3.5%
Crude Oil Flat
Wish we could predict such trends in PM's.
Steel (scrap) +2.3%
Steel (Hot Rolled) +2.3%
Plastic +3%
Tungsten Flat
Alunimum +3.5%
Crude Oil Flat
Wish we could predict such trends in PM's.
0
Comments
silver: flat
hot air: up
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>If you knew silver was going to be 2.3% higher next year, would you buy it today? >>
Vs money in a savings acct earning 0.001%, yes.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Here is a price forecast (2014) by one of our suppliers:
Steel (scrap) +2.3%
Steel (Hot Rolled) +2.3%
Plastic +3%
Tungsten Flat
Alunimum +3.5%
Crude Oil Flat
Wish we could predict such trends in PM's. >>
Did it cause you to purchase more from them now?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>In reality you can get 1.05% in a 1yr CD. >>
$10/1000 isn't worth the locked-in time, or the missed opportunity of catching a ~10% swing in the metal...or possibly several of those over the year.
<< <i>In reality you can get 1.05% in a 1yr CD. >>
My area has rewards checking accounts that pay 3% on the first $15k deposited. Only requirement is 12 debit card transactions/month.
Or, use cohodk's bank, it's much safer.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Gold: $1415
Silver: $25.02
Plat: $1602
Pall: $775.00
Rhod: $1100.
Copper...$4.05
<< <i>My crystal ball forecast: Being the contrarian that I am, I'm predicting a small increase for those commodities.
Gold: $1415
Silver: $25.02
Plat: $1602
Pall: $775.00
Rhod: $1100.
Copper...$4.05 >>
Well using your "CONTRARIAN" forecast.. seems like PM's are the place to be for a year... starting now...Unless you, Baley or Cohodk have better predictions on "OTHER" INVESTMENTS!
<< <i>I think our political leaders will start working together to bring fiscal responsibility to the government by reducing the national debt and by spending only what the government brings in as revenue.
HAHAH
BST Transactions (as the seller): Collectall, GRANDAM, epcjimi1, wondercoin, jmski52, wheathoarder, jay1187, jdsueu, grote15, airplanenut, bigole
2014 AU/AG Prediction
Gold trading range prediction: $1150 to $1400, with the yearly average price somewhat negative around $1215
Silver trading range prediction: $17.50 to $26.25 with the yearly average price flat to slightly positive at about $24.75
I think the au/ag will creep toward a lower ratio over the next several years, something closer to 40/1.
That and $2.80 will get you a medium cup of coffee at dunkn'
JC
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<< <i>If you knew silver was going to be 2.3% higher next year, would you buy it today? >>
yes, of course.
gold 950-1150 range
silver 17-19
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>
<< <i>Here is a price forecast (2014) by one of our suppliers:
Steel (scrap) +2.3%
Steel (Hot Rolled) +2.3%
Plastic +3%
Tungsten Flat
Alunimum +3.5%
Crude Oil Flat
Wish we could predict such trends in PM's. >>
Did it cause you to purchase more from them now?
No, as inflation continues, there just isn't enough capital (money) remaining to make ANY long term investment in equipment. Therefore, there is no capital left for investments, gold, silver, real estate, etc. Rising prices also include, taxes, healthcare, food, gas. A first world nation cannot survive the off shoring of jobs and therefore cannot maintain a growing economy and healthy middle class. Poverty is on the rise here.
One final note, yesterday I saw 2 gentlemen picketing against Kohl's. I walked up and had a conversation about their grievance. Kohl's is building a new store 45 miles away and Kohl's hired a non- union construction company out of Georgia. These guys are union here in Indiana. Everyone is fighting for work, now against other Americans. Stay thirsty my friends, get out in the streets and see for yourself.
<< <i>One final note, yesterday I saw 2 gentlemen picketing against Kohl's. I walked up and had a conversation about their grievance. Kohl's is building a new store 45 miles away and Kohl's hired a non- union construction company out of Georgia. These guys are union here in Indiana. Everyone is fighting for work, now against other Americans. Stay thirsty my friends, get out in the streets and see for yourself. >>
In a buyer's market for labor it's time for die hard union members to rethink their priorities. Unfortunately, the law of supply and demand applies to labor as well.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>I think that PM's will be static or decline because I think our political leaders will start working together to bring fiscal responsibility to the government by reducing the national debt and by spending only what the government brings in as revenue. >>
PerryHall... hallucinogenics can be dangerous.....
<< <i>
<< <i>One final note, yesterday I saw 2 gentlemen picketing against Kohl's. I walked up and had a conversation about their grievance. Kohl's is building a new store 45 miles away and Kohl's hired a non- union construction company out of Georgia. These guys are union here in Indiana. Everyone is fighting for work, now against other Americans. Stay thirsty my friends, get out in the streets and see for yourself. >>
In a buyer's market for labor it's time for die hard union members to rethink their priorities. Unfortunately, the law of supply and demand applies to labor as well. >>
10 4.
<< <i>
<< <i>I think that PM's will be static or decline because I think our political leaders will start working together to bring fiscal responsibility to the government by reducing the national debt and by spending only what the government brings in as revenue. >>
PerryHall... hallucinogenics can be dangerous.....
To set the record straight, I was being facetious. We aren't living in Baileyville after all.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
All the Fed is doing is handing money over to the bankers, diluting the value of the dollar and generating public tax liability in the process - and that's all they've been doing since 2008. The reason that the economy hasn't been "stimulated" is because the money isn't getting into the economy.
All this QE and there's still nobody in the economy swimming in cash or making capital investment (as a result of uncertainty over obamacare). They WANT money flowing into stocks, which is a direct result of the ultra-low interest rates. Why is that? Forcing interest rates low makes stocks a better relative value.
Nothing is happenstance. Almost all of the QE is going into stocks, in my opinion - mainly due to the fear that retirements will be massively crushed if support for stocks were to diminish, and that would be political poison for *everybody* in the government. My theory is that bonds are dead already. Rates will eventually have to rise, and that will kill bonds twice over.
Gold and silver only serve as negative indicators to the government, so they can't be seen as a viable investment alternative by the market commentators who make their money on stock activities. That's always been true. The other markets would almost instantly crap out if gold & silver gained credibility as a store of wealth. It'll happen anyway because of the gross mismanagement, malfeasance and mistrust we've seen built up in paper markets over the years. My opinion.
So, whether or not metals go up or down in the meantime really depends on whether liquidity dries completely up, and that mainly depends on how fast the Fed pumps QE, which is going to require an increase in volume just to maintain the status quo of stock values (and to service government debt & deficit spending).
It's a vicious cycle that the politicians will never make a move to solve.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>They WANT money flowing into stocks, which is a direct result of the ultra-low interest rates. Why is that? >>
Part of the greatest transfer of wealth the world has ever seen.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>
<< <i>They WANT money flowing into stocks, which is a direct result of the ultra-low interest rates. Why is that? >>
Part of the greatest transfer of wealth the world has ever seen. >>
The greatest transfer of wealth the world has ever seen will be over the next 3 decades as the baby boomers finally give up the ghost and bequest the stepped up basis to the Gen x ers
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Got out in the real world today, traded in vehicle and bought a newer model used SUV. Paid difference with check. Signed the common privacy doc, where they won't share my information. HA, a second later they had to have my SS number on another doc. I said no, they said can't sell the vehicle without my SS #, because they forward it to Homeland Security to make sure I'm not a terrorist. So much for Sharing privacy.
They're tracking everything.
<< <i>They're tracking everything. >>
Connect the dots.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
They're tracking everything.
Those who are not terrorists (or other criminal behavior) have nothing to hide. Surveillance is transparent to innocent people (with exceptions of mistaken identity or coincidence that prove the rule)
did you do the deal or not?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>Those who are not terrorists (or other criminal behavior) have nothing to hide. >>
That's why I'm sure you'd have no problem with the government installing surveillance devices in your home. Nothing to hide, no reason to stop them, eh?
<< <i>they said can't sell the vehicle without my SS #, because they forward it to Homeland Security to make sure I'm not a terrorist. So much for Sharing privacy.
They're tracking everything.
Those who are not terrorists (or other criminal behavior) have nothing to hide. Surveillance is transparent to innocent people (with exceptions of mistaken identity or coincidence that prove the rule) >>
They say the same to those who are not guilty of other crimes, but for some reason many of them still end up in jail.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
So because I don't want to divulge certain personal information to a car salesman, that makes me a terrorist and/or a criminal? Did I hear that correctly?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
HS needs your SSN to decide whether or not you're a terrorist? Why aren't they tracking people (including those without criminal records) who have no SSNs then? Everything about this stinks, (no offense to those with tender feelings).
I knew it would happen.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Old salesman's trick. He doesn't give your SSN to HS, but if he starts talking terrorism he knows you will give him the info he needs. >>
Yes, made the deal. I think you're right. The car agency probably just ran my credit, even though I was paying cash.
<< <i>
<< <i>Old salesman's trick. He doesn't give your SSN to HS, but if he starts talking terrorism he knows you will give him the info he needs. >>
Yes, made the deal. I think you're right. The car agency probably just ran my credit, even though I was paying cash. >>
They all do it and have been doing so for years. ( Run a credit check whether you pay in full or not, just to make sure they are dealing with a legit individual. After all, you are driving home with a multi thousand dollar car )
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Old salesman's trick. He doesn't give your SSN to HS, but if he starts talking terrorism he knows you will give him the info he needs. >>
Yes, made the deal. I think you're right. The car agency probably just ran my credit, even though I was paying cash. >>
They all do it and have been doing so for years. ( Run a credit check whether you pay in full or not, just to make sure they are dealing with a legit individual. After all, you are driving home with a multi thousand dollar car ) >>
I bet they all have a well hidden transmitter so they can be tracked down is someone decides to keep it.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
If real money reaches the public in circulation than in computer code to banks, yeah, PM's will go up.
The continuing demotion of the middle class will keep PM's down.
If so, then as typical investor psychology dictates, predictions such as these usually occur during the latter to end of a bull market. When silver was $40+, people were predicting it to go to $100, even after it had already risen 10 fold in the previous decade.
Beware the overzealous prognosticators.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Beware the overzealous prognosticators. >>
Silver will go to $100, I'm a patient prognosticator. Stackers need also be patient. No patience, get out. Unfortunately the $100 silver will buy less than today's $50 bill.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>If you knew silver was going to be 2.3% higher next year, would you buy it today? >>
If I could get an '95 Silver Dollar Proof or 95 W SAE Proof for spot, I would do it
It is obvious that QE has not benefited PMs to the extent the patient have hoped. Should we now hope time will cure the wounds? Too much hope involved, imo.
PMs probably suffer another year of boredom.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i><< They WANT money flowing into stocks, which is a direct result of the ultra-low interest rates. Why is that? >> >>
Huge pools of pension fund monies are in stock. They MUST keep them high or BK most major city, state etc pension funds.
<< <i>Patience has cost some people more than 1/2 their wealth.
It is obvious that QE has not benefited PMs to the extent the patient have hoped. Should we now hope time will cure the wounds? Too much hope involved, imo.
PMs probably suffer another year of boredom. >>
PMs will more than likely suffer another year of boredom. . . while the dollar trades further south. The catalyst for PMs will not be QE it will be the scramble from the dollar.
Hope in metals will trump faith in dollars.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Right you are. Not to mention all the fund managers feeding in the pond and the whole food chain above and below them that have a serious interest in keeping the balloon in the air, regardless. Kind of like the housing crash...everyone was screaming that it was over cooked but rather than do anything about giving away huge home loans to people completely unqualified to own a mortgage, the RE agents, insurers, banks, and all the fish above and below them were feeding with abandon on the huge amount of cash that was flowing from all the worthless paper moving around. Same with the funds, the city/county and state pension fund collapse will just be collateral damage. The band will keep playing until the water starts washing over the decks.
Hard to be prepared for something like what's going to happen and you know the fund managers will be feeding until there is no more food and then it will be...
Hey Buddy, can you spare an ASE?
Anyone know what the average annual percentage return has been for gold ?
Link Looks like the 2013 return will be about -30%
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
If we keep creating money, eventually we'll all be rich right? Gold is just a barbarous relic from a time when we couldn't just print as much money as we need.
Nothing to worry about here.............
<< <i>The average annual return for stocks since 1926 has been 9.8%. The average inflation rate has been about 3%.
Anyone know what the average annual percentage return has been for gold ?
Link Looks like the 2013 return will be about -30% >>
The average gain in gold price for each of the last 11 years was 18.13% per year. That was an average of 18.13% figured on a new high each of those years, not based on the beginning price eleven years ago. The compounding affect of that 18.13% gain each year resulted in an actual gain of 485% in gold price during the eleven years.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>
<< <i>The average annual return for stocks since 1926 has been 9.8%. The average inflation rate has been about 3%.
Anyone know what the average annual percentage return has been for gold ?
Link Looks like the 2013 return will be about -30% >>
The average gain in gold price for each of the last 11 years was 18.13% per year. That was an average of 18.13% figured on a new high each of those years, not based on the beginning price eleven years ago. The compounding affect of that 18.13% gain each year resulted in an actual gain of 485% in gold price during the eleven years. >>
Yes. This was a period of significantly above-average performance, historically speaking. Unprecedented, even.
Which suggests that we are now in for a period of underperformance. And it could be a long one.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry