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Price Forecast 2014 - PM's?

KUCHKUCH Posts: 1,186
in Precious Metals
Here is a price forecast (2014) by one of our suppliers:
Steel (scrap) +2.3%
Steel (Hot Rolled) +2.3%
Plastic +3%
Tungsten Flat
Alunimum +3.5%
Crude Oil Flat

Wish we could predict such trends in PM's.




«1

Comments

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭
    gold: flat
    silver: flat
    hot air: up

    image

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,087 ✭✭✭✭✭
    If you knew silver was going to be 2.3% higher next year, would you buy it today?
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • DrBusterDrBuster Posts: 5,378 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>If you knew silver was going to be 2.3% higher next year, would you buy it today? >>



    Vs money in a savings acct earning 0.001%, yes.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,087 ✭✭✭✭✭
    In reality you can get 1.05% in a 1yr CD.




    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,781 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Here is a price forecast (2014) by one of our suppliers:
    Steel (scrap) +2.3%
    Steel (Hot Rolled) +2.3%
    Plastic +3%
    Tungsten Flat
    Alunimum +3.5%
    Crude Oil Flat

    Wish we could predict such trends in PM's. >>


    Did it cause you to purchase more from them now? image

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • DrBusterDrBuster Posts: 5,378 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>In reality you can get 1.05% in a 1yr CD. >>



    $10/1000 isn't worth the locked-in time, or the missed opportunity of catching a ~10% swing in the metal...or possibly several of those over the year.
  • VanHalenVanHalen Posts: 3,946 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>In reality you can get 1.05% in a 1yr CD. >>



    My area has rewards checking accounts that pay 3% on the first $15k deposited. Only requirement is 12 debit card transactions/month.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,781 ✭✭✭✭✭
    weigh bank risk, not measly deposit returns.

    Or, use cohodk's bank, it's much safer. image

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • PerryHallPerryHall Posts: 46,109 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I think that PM's will be static or decline because I think our political leaders will start working together to bring fiscal responsibility to the government by reducing the national debt and by spending only what the government brings in as revenue. image

    Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
    "Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
    "Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire

  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,119 ✭✭✭✭✭
    My crystal ball forecast: Being the contrarian that I am, I'm predicting a small increase for those commodities.

    Gold: $1415
    Silver: $25.02
    Plat: $1602
    Pall: $775.00
    Rhod: $1100.
    Copper...$4.05

    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • MetalsmanMetalsman Posts: 2,064 ✭✭✭


    << <i>My crystal ball forecast: Being the contrarian that I am, I'm predicting a small increase for those commodities.

    Gold: $1415
    Silver: $25.02
    Plat: $1602
    Pall: $775.00
    Rhod: $1100.
    Copper...$4.05 >>



    Well using your "CONTRARIAN" forecast.. seems like PM's are the place to be for a year... starting now...Unless you, Baley or Cohodk have better predictions on "OTHER" INVESTMENTS!image
  • OperationButterOperationButter Posts: 1,672 ✭✭✭


    << <i>I think our political leaders will start working together to bring fiscal responsibility to the government by reducing the national debt and by spending only what the government brings in as revenue. image >>



    HAHAH

    image
    Gold is for savings. Fiat is for transactions.



    BST Transactions (as the seller): Collectall, GRANDAM, epcjimi1, wondercoin, jmski52, wheathoarder, jay1187, jdsueu, grote15, airplanenut, bigole
  • JohnnyCacheJohnnyCache Posts: 1,758 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I'll play it super safe and give myself a ton of breathing room.

    2014 AU/AG Prediction

    Gold trading range prediction: $1150 to $1400, with the yearly average price somewhat negative around $1215

    Silver trading range prediction: $17.50 to $26.25 with the yearly average price flat to slightly positive at about $24.75

    I think the au/ag will creep toward a lower ratio over the next several years, something closer to 40/1.


    That and $2.80 will get you a medium cup of coffee at dunkn'



    JC

    Charles III Album

    Charles III Portrait Set

    Charles IV Album

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  • johnny9434johnny9434 Posts: 28,300 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>If you knew silver was going to be 2.3% higher next year, would you buy it today? >>

    yes, of course.
  • mrpaseomrpaseo Posts: 4,753 ✭✭✭
    I can get you only as close as 50% accuracy that next year we will see precious metals UP. image
  • jdimmickjdimmick Posts: 9,673 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I say: (after about mar 14)

    gold 950-1150 range
    silver 17-19
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,781 ✭✭✭✭✭
    will we still have dollars in 2014? image

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • KUCHKUCH Posts: 1,186


    << <i>

    << <i>Here is a price forecast (2014) by one of our suppliers:
    Steel (scrap) +2.3%
    Steel (Hot Rolled) +2.3%
    Plastic +3%
    Tungsten Flat
    Alunimum +3.5%
    Crude Oil Flat

    Wish we could predict such trends in PM's. >>


    Did it cause you to purchase more from them now? image >>



    No, as inflation continues, there just isn't enough capital (money) remaining to make ANY long term investment in equipment. Therefore, there is no capital left for investments, gold, silver, real estate, etc. Rising prices also include, taxes, healthcare, food, gas. A first world nation cannot survive the off shoring of jobs and therefore cannot maintain a growing economy and healthy middle class. Poverty is on the rise here.

    One final note, yesterday I saw 2 gentlemen picketing against Kohl's. I walked up and had a conversation about their grievance. Kohl's is building a new store 45 miles away and Kohl's hired a non- union construction company out of Georgia. These guys are union here in Indiana. Everyone is fighting for work, now against other Americans. Stay thirsty my friends, get out in the streets and see for yourself.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,781 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>One final note, yesterday I saw 2 gentlemen picketing against Kohl's. I walked up and had a conversation about their grievance. Kohl's is building a new store 45 miles away and Kohl's hired a non- union construction company out of Georgia. These guys are union here in Indiana. Everyone is fighting for work, now against other Americans. Stay thirsty my friends, get out in the streets and see for yourself. >>


    In a buyer's market for labor it's time for die hard union members to rethink their priorities. Unfortunately, the law of supply and demand applies to labor as well.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • rickoricko Posts: 98,724 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I think that PM's will be static or decline because I think our political leaders will start working together to bring fiscal responsibility to the government by reducing the national debt and by spending only what the government brings in as revenue. >>



    PerryHall... hallucinogenics can be dangerous.....image Cheers, RickO
  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,119 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>One final note, yesterday I saw 2 gentlemen picketing against Kohl's. I walked up and had a conversation about their grievance. Kohl's is building a new store 45 miles away and Kohl's hired a non- union construction company out of Georgia. These guys are union here in Indiana. Everyone is fighting for work, now against other Americans. Stay thirsty my friends, get out in the streets and see for yourself. >>


    In a buyer's market for labor it's time for die hard union members to rethink their priorities. Unfortunately, the law of supply and demand applies to labor as well. >>



    10 4.

    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • PerryHallPerryHall Posts: 46,109 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>I think that PM's will be static or decline because I think our political leaders will start working together to bring fiscal responsibility to the government by reducing the national debt and by spending only what the government brings in as revenue. >>



    PerryHall... hallucinogenics can be dangerous.....image Cheers, RickO >>


    To set the record straight, I was being facetious. We aren't living in Baileyville after all. image

    Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
    "Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
    "Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,814 ✭✭✭✭✭
    You have to ask yourself whether or not we're due for a worsening liquidity crunch. We've been in one since 2008 and the only determining factor is how deep the damage goes on the less-than-transparent banking system's balance sheets.

    All the Fed is doing is handing money over to the bankers, diluting the value of the dollar and generating public tax liability in the process - and that's all they've been doing since 2008. The reason that the economy hasn't been "stimulated" is because the money isn't getting into the economy.

    All this QE and there's still nobody in the economy swimming in cash or making capital investment (as a result of uncertainty over obamacare). They WANT money flowing into stocks, which is a direct result of the ultra-low interest rates. Why is that? Forcing interest rates low makes stocks a better relative value.

    Nothing is happenstance. Almost all of the QE is going into stocks, in my opinion - mainly due to the fear that retirements will be massively crushed if support for stocks were to diminish, and that would be political poison for *everybody* in the government. My theory is that bonds are dead already. Rates will eventually have to rise, and that will kill bonds twice over.

    Gold and silver only serve as negative indicators to the government, so they can't be seen as a viable investment alternative by the market commentators who make their money on stock activities. That's always been true. The other markets would almost instantly crap out if gold & silver gained credibility as a store of wealth. It'll happen anyway because of the gross mismanagement, malfeasance and mistrust we've seen built up in paper markets over the years. My opinion.

    So, whether or not metals go up or down in the meantime really depends on whether liquidity dries completely up, and that mainly depends on how fast the Fed pumps QE, which is going to require an increase in volume just to maintain the status quo of stock values (and to service government debt & deficit spending).

    It's a vicious cycle that the politicians will never make a move to solve.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,781 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>They WANT money flowing into stocks, which is a direct result of the ultra-low interest rates. Why is that? >>


    Part of the greatest transfer of wealth the world has ever seen.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>They WANT money flowing into stocks, which is a direct result of the ultra-low interest rates. Why is that? >>


    Part of the greatest transfer of wealth the world has ever seen. >>



    The greatest transfer of wealth the world has ever seen will be over the next 3 decades as the baby boomers finally give up the ghost and bequest the stepped up basis to the Gen x ers

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • KUCHKUCH Posts: 1,186
    Economically, we're in uncharted waters globally. As we know from history, economies die by their own hand. All we have to do is store our assets in those things we believe will appreciate. Gold, silver, coins should be a part of the mix. If the East is buying gold, it may add to its importance.

    Got out in the real world today, traded in vehicle and bought a newer model used SUV. Paid difference with check. Signed the common privacy doc, where they won't share my information. HA, a second later they had to have my SS number on another doc. I said no, they said can't sell the vehicle without my SS #, because they forward it to Homeland Security to make sure I'm not a terrorist. So much for Sharing privacy.

    They're tracking everything.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,781 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>They're tracking everything. >>


    Connect the dots.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭
    they said can't sell the vehicle without my SS #, because they forward it to Homeland Security to make sure I'm not a terrorist. So much for Sharing privacy.

    They're tracking everything.

    Those who are not terrorists (or other criminal behavior) have nothing to hide. Surveillance is transparent to innocent people (with exceptions of mistaken identity or coincidence that prove the rule)

    did you do the deal or not?

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • secondrepublicsecondrepublic Posts: 2,619 ✭✭✭
    Since sentiment is so anti-PMs at the moment, and has probably swung much further in that direction than the fundamentals can bear, I'm going to go out on a limb and predict $2,000 gold and $45 silver sometime in 2014.
    "Men who had never shown any ability to make or increase fortunes for themselves abounded in brilliant plans for creating and increasing wealth for the country at large." Fiat Money Inflation in France, Andrew Dickson White (1912)
  • secondrepublicsecondrepublic Posts: 2,619 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Those who are not terrorists (or other criminal behavior) have nothing to hide. >>



    That's why I'm sure you'd have no problem with the government installing surveillance devices in your home. Nothing to hide, no reason to stop them, eh?
    "Men who had never shown any ability to make or increase fortunes for themselves abounded in brilliant plans for creating and increasing wealth for the country at large." Fiat Money Inflation in France, Andrew Dickson White (1912)
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,781 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>they said can't sell the vehicle without my SS #, because they forward it to Homeland Security to make sure I'm not a terrorist. So much for Sharing privacy.

    They're tracking everything.

    Those who are not terrorists (or other criminal behavior) have nothing to hide. Surveillance is transparent to innocent people (with exceptions of mistaken identity or coincidence that prove the rule) >>


    They say the same to those who are not guilty of other crimes, but for some reason many of them still end up in jail.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • piecesofmepiecesofme Posts: 6,669 ✭✭✭
    Those who are not terrorists (or other criminal behavior) have nothing to hide. Surveillance is transparent to innocent people (with exceptions of mistaken identity or coincidence that prove the rule)

    So because I don't want to divulge certain personal information to a car salesman, that makes me a terrorist and/or a criminal? Did I hear that correctly?
    To forgive is to free a prisoner, and to discover that prisoner was you.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,781 ✭✭✭✭✭
    They call it private information for a reason. A SSN is the toughest piece of the puzzle for an identity thief. Every time one shares the number odds increase of identity theft. The fact that the government has private individuals collecting SSNs for them is pathetic. In most identity theft case the information was purchased from someone in a position to ask for it. More should be done to ensure that SSNs are used only for their intended purpose - Social Security payments and benefits.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,814 ✭✭✭✭✭
    they said can't sell the vehicle without my SS #, because they forward it to Homeland Security to make sure I'm not a terrorist

    HS needs your SSN to decide whether or not you're a terrorist? Why aren't they tracking people (including those without criminal records) who have no SSNs then? Everything about this stinks, (no offense to those with tender feelings).
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,087 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Old salesman's trick. He doesn't give your SSN to HS, but if he starts talking terrorism he knows you will give him the info he needs.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • KUCHKUCH Posts: 1,186


    << <i>Old salesman's trick. He doesn't give your SSN to HS, but if he starts talking terrorism he knows you will give him the info he needs. >>



    Yes, made the deal. I think you're right. The car agency probably just ran my credit, even though I was paying cash.
  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,119 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Old salesman's trick. He doesn't give your SSN to HS, but if he starts talking terrorism he knows you will give him the info he needs. >>



    Yes, made the deal. I think you're right. The car agency probably just ran my credit, even though I was paying cash. >>



    They all do it and have been doing so for years. ( Run a credit check whether you pay in full or not, just to make sure they are dealing with a legit individual. After all, you are driving home with a multi thousand dollar car )
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • PerryHallPerryHall Posts: 46,109 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>Old salesman's trick. He doesn't give your SSN to HS, but if he starts talking terrorism he knows you will give him the info he needs. >>



    Yes, made the deal. I think you're right. The car agency probably just ran my credit, even though I was paying cash. >>



    They all do it and have been doing so for years. ( Run a credit check whether you pay in full or not, just to make sure they are dealing with a legit individual. After all, you are driving home with a multi thousand dollar car ) >>


    I bet they all have a well hidden transmitter so they can be tracked down is someone decides to keep it.image

    Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
    "Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
    "Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire

  • 57loaded57loaded Posts: 4,967 ✭✭✭
    Wasn't 2014 the beginning of what had been said 2-3 years ago that PM's would make a positive move?

    If real money reaches the public in circulation than in computer code to banks, yeah, PM's will go up.
    The continuing demotion of the middle class will keep PM's down.

    imageimage
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,087 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Wasn't 2014 the beginning of what had been said 2-3 years ago that PM's would make a positive move?

    If so, then as typical investor psychology dictates, predictions such as these usually occur during the latter to end of a bull market. When silver was $40+, people were predicting it to go to $100, even after it had already risen 10 fold in the previous decade.

    Beware the overzealous prognosticators.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,781 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Beware the overzealous prognosticators. >>


    Silver will go to $100, I'm a patient prognosticator. Stackers need also be patient. No patience, get out. Unfortunately the $100 silver will buy less than today's $50 bill.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 44,283 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>If you knew silver was going to be 2.3% higher next year, would you buy it today? >>



    If I could get an '95 Silver Dollar Proof or 95 W SAE Proof for spot, I would do it image
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,087 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Patience has cost some people more than 1/2 their wealth.

    It is obvious that QE has not benefited PMs to the extent the patient have hoped. Should we now hope time will cure the wounds? Too much hope involved, imo.

    PMs probably suffer another year of boredom.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • CoynCoyn Posts: 194


    << <i><< They WANT money flowing into stocks, which is a direct result of the ultra-low interest rates. Why is that? >> >>




    Huge pools of pension fund monies are in stock. They MUST keep them high or BK most major city, state etc pension funds.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,781 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Patience has cost some people more than 1/2 their wealth.
    It is obvious that QE has not benefited PMs to the extent the patient have hoped. Should we now hope time will cure the wounds? Too much hope involved, imo.
    PMs probably suffer another year of boredom. >>


    PMs will more than likely suffer another year of boredom. . . while the dollar trades further south. The catalyst for PMs will not be QE it will be the scramble from the dollar.

    Hope in metals will trump faith in dollars.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • mhammermanmhammerman Posts: 3,769 ✭✭✭
    "Huge pools of pension fund monies are in stock. They MUST keep them high or BK most major city, state etc pension funds."

    Right you are. Not to mention all the fund managers feeding in the pond and the whole food chain above and below them that have a serious interest in keeping the balloon in the air, regardless. Kind of like the housing crash...everyone was screaming that it was over cooked but rather than do anything about giving away huge home loans to people completely unqualified to own a mortgage, the RE agents, insurers, banks, and all the fish above and below them were feeding with abandon on the huge amount of cash that was flowing from all the worthless paper moving around. Same with the funds, the city/county and state pension fund collapse will just be collateral damage. The band will keep playing until the water starts washing over the decks.

    Hard to be prepared for something like what's going to happen and you know the fund managers will be feeding until there is no more food and then it will be...

    Hey Buddy, can you spare an ASE?
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The average annual return for stocks since 1926 has been 9.8%. The average inflation rate has been about 3%.

    Anyone know what the average annual percentage return has been for gold ?

    Link Looks like the 2013 return will be about -30%

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • VanHalenVanHalen Posts: 3,946 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Gold would be about 5% per year.

    If we keep creating money, eventually we'll all be rich right? Gold is just a barbarous relic from a time when we couldn't just print as much money as we need.

    Nothing to worry about here.............
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,781 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>The average annual return for stocks since 1926 has been 9.8%. The average inflation rate has been about 3%.
    Anyone know what the average annual percentage return has been for gold ?
    Link Looks like the 2013 return will be about -30% >>


    The average gain in gold price for each of the last 11 years was 18.13% per year. That was an average of 18.13% figured on a new high each of those years, not based on the beginning price eleven years ago. The compounding affect of that 18.13% gain each year resulted in an actual gain of 485% in gold price during the eleven years.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>The average annual return for stocks since 1926 has been 9.8%. The average inflation rate has been about 3%.
    Anyone know what the average annual percentage return has been for gold ?
    Link Looks like the 2013 return will be about -30% >>


    The average gain in gold price for each of the last 11 years was 18.13% per year. That was an average of 18.13% figured on a new high each of those years, not based on the beginning price eleven years ago. The compounding affect of that 18.13% gain each year resulted in an actual gain of 485% in gold price during the eleven years. >>



    Yes. This was a period of significantly above-average performance, historically speaking. Unprecedented, even.

    Which suggests that we are now in for a period of underperformance. And it could be a long one.

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

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