Modern "Collector Bullion" collecting/flipping question
jmski52
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I don't often sell the "collector bullion" that I accumulate, although I know that many people do as a regular matter of course.
I tend to sit on a coin and watch it peak, then I watch it float back down to what usually amounts to an equilibrium price after the market flipping glut clears and interest wanes. This is the normal pattern for most new bullion issues. Later, sometimes several years after the dust clears and the numbers become more established the coin might begin to make another longterm climb.
I only recently sold some 2008-W 4-coin Gold Buff Sets, and even though I didn't sell at the peak, I did realize a nice return.
I figure that while I'm still in "accumulation mode" it's better to focus on making good picks, based on perceived demand and mintages.
I recently had a protracted debate in another thread with a collector who has watched his Plats and some MS-69 coins languish, giving him a somewhat jaded view of the market. I have plenty of coins in that same category, and it's really not all bad since most of them are still nicely above my cost basis even though they never made it to "BIG SCORE" status.
Here's my question: If you are lucky enough to buy the right coin with lots of potential, at the right price - and then you watch it climb and climb and climb - at what point do you sell it? Do you sell it at the peak, or do you decide to keep it (even if it starts a decline in price) while it becomes more firmly established as the Key of the Series? Or do you just keep it permanently?
I tend to sit on a coin and watch it peak, then I watch it float back down to what usually amounts to an equilibrium price after the market flipping glut clears and interest wanes. This is the normal pattern for most new bullion issues. Later, sometimes several years after the dust clears and the numbers become more established the coin might begin to make another longterm climb.
I only recently sold some 2008-W 4-coin Gold Buff Sets, and even though I didn't sell at the peak, I did realize a nice return.
I figure that while I'm still in "accumulation mode" it's better to focus on making good picks, based on perceived demand and mintages.
I recently had a protracted debate in another thread with a collector who has watched his Plats and some MS-69 coins languish, giving him a somewhat jaded view of the market. I have plenty of coins in that same category, and it's really not all bad since most of them are still nicely above my cost basis even though they never made it to "BIG SCORE" status.
Here's my question: If you are lucky enough to buy the right coin with lots of potential, at the right price - and then you watch it climb and climb and climb - at what point do you sell it? Do you sell it at the peak, or do you decide to keep it (even if it starts a decline in price) while it becomes more firmly established as the Key of the Series? Or do you just keep it permanently?
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I knew it would happen.
I knew it would happen.
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of course, the answer will be different if you're actually a collector of this stuff -- rather than primarily a bullion stacker.
I remember selling 08 W gold too early, but since I was buying more 08 W gold (up until the mint ceased sales) with the proceeds I actually ended up with more 08 W inventory and made more money.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
The question boils down to "where is the top?" The trite yet true answer is that "nobody knows." If a person knew the price or time of the top, that person could make huge money every trading period, and not have to ask or answer investment style questions on a public forum.
What I tell folks about markets, is that there a thousand ways to go about it. It is important to find a style that suits a person's personality, and strengths. Some can be more flexible and do a variety of things. A good way to find a style that works is to keep a journal of transactions and the reasoning at the time, buy-sell-or-hold, and then learn what works for you.
Gold price movement has a lot to do with "hot" and should be taken into consideration on expected returns.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Here's my question: If you are lucky enough to buy the right coin with lots of potential, at the right price - and then you watch it climb and climb and climb - at what point do you sell it? Do you sell it at the peak, or do you decide to keep it (even if it starts a decline in price) while it becomes more firmly established as the Key of the Series? Or do you just keep it permanently? >>
Coins for my personal collections, I'll take to my grave
1) Am I an opportunist (or dealer) placing profit above all else in making this decision.
2) Am I a collector or investor with longer term thinking.
3) Am I a combination of #1 and #2.
Once you remind yourself who you are the decisions come easier.
John
John Maben
Pegasus Coin and Jewelry (Brick and Mortar)
ANA LM, PNG, APMD, FUN, Etc
800-381-2646
1) Am I an opportunist (or dealer) placing profit above all else in making this decision.
2) Am I a collector or investor with longer term thinking.
3) Am I a combination of #1 and #2.
Once you remind yourself who you are the decisions come easier.
Lol, this reminds me of when I first became a collector in the early '60s. My older brother and his friend were engaged in an exciting discussion about some coin that they were going to find (I think it must have been a 1960-P Small Date) if they looked through a bunch of rolls, and I couldn't quite wrap my head around the concept that a penny could somehow be worth more than a penny.
My thoughts were something like, "that's really stupid". But the more I pondered it, the more I wondered how rich I would be if I could find a bunch of them myself.
It's been downhill ever since.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>My older brother and his friend were engaged in an exciting discussion about some coin that they were going to find (I think it must have been a 1960-P Small Date) if they looked through a bunch of rolls, and I couldn't quite wrap my head around the concept that a penny could somehow be worth more than a penny. >>
I also started collecting in the early 1960's. Never found a 1960 Philly small date (even though I lived on the east coast) but found plenty of the Denver ones. I've never heard of anyone else finding a 60-P small date either, and have never seen a circulated one for sale. I suspect that the entire mintage of about 2 million was captured by dealers or speculators before reaching circulation.
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<-----buy buy buy
-------> Sell, sell, sell
Tirade
In short: TTT
Profit, Enjoy, Advance
<< <i>Flip it while it's hot. I hung onto my 25th anniversary sets for too long (about 1.5 years). I could have sold any time in that range to realize about the same gain as I actually did. But as derryb said, I could have reinvested that money that much sooner into another (hopefully) profitable venture. >>
I have two of those graded sets, a PCGS 69 & 70, how are they doing?
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
Worst case: gold's gold. Best case: who knows.
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
<< <i>for so-called collector bullion, dump it when you see a substantial gain. the meaning of "substantial" is in the eyes of the beholder. the 2009 ultra high relief saints are a great example.
of course, the answer will be different if you're actually a collector of this stuff -- rather than primarily a bullion stacker. >>