Modern "Collector Bullion" collecting/flipping question

jmski52

I don't often sell the "collector bullion" that I accumulate, although I know that many people do as a regular matter of course.

I tend to sit on a coin and watch it peak, then I watch it float back down to what usually amounts to an equilibrium price after the market flipping glut clears and interest wanes. This is the normal pattern for most new bullion issues. Later, sometimes several years after the dust clears and the numbers become more established the coin might begin to make another longterm climb.

I only recently sold some 2008-W 4-coin Gold Buff Sets, and even though I didn't sell at the peak, I did realize a nice return.

I figure that while I'm still in "accumulation mode" it's better to focus on making good picks, based on perceived demand and mintages.

I recently had a protracted debate in another thread with a collector who has watched his Plats and some MS-69 coins languish, giving him a somewhat jaded view of the market. I have plenty of coins in that same category, and it's really not all bad since most of them are still nicely above my cost basis even though they never made it to "BIG SCORE" status.

Here's my question: If you are lucky enough to buy the right coin with lots of potential, at the right price - and then you watch it climb and climb and climb - at what point do you sell it? Do you sell it at the peak, or do you decide to keep it (even if it starts a decline in price) while it becomes more firmly established as the Key of the Series? Or do you just keep it permanently?

secondrepublic

for so-called collector bullion, dump it when you see a substantial gain. the meaning of "substantial" is in the eyes of the beholder. the 2009 ultra high relief saints are a great example.

of course, the answer will be different if you're actually a collector of this stuff -- rather than primarily a bullion stacker.

derryb

150% ROI is plenty for me on 70s modern mint gold. The few times I got greedy and delayed I regretted it. The key is the mint having new gambles available. This tends to expedite my decision to sell. Reinvesting the flip money into new flip products is the key to greater profits.

I remember selling 08 W gold too early, but since I was buying more 08 W gold (up until the mint ceased sales) with the proceeds I actually ended up with more 08 W inventory and made more money.

Pokermandude

Flip it while it's hot. I hung onto my 25th anniversary sets for too long (about 1.5 years). I could have sold any time in that range to realize about the same gain as I actually did. But as derryb said, I could have reinvested that money that much sooner into another (hopefully) profitable venture.

RedTiger

While the question specifics are about modern U.S. mint products, it really points to a broader much more general question. It is a question without a single right answer, there are a thousand different answers. Each person decides. Some common ways to go are to set a percentage (gain or loss), a holding period (perhaps with an extension), a decline off the peak. Each person finds their own answer. What is comfortable and profitable for one person may make another person quite nervous, and not be worth the few extra bucks. A strategy that one person finds easy to execute, may be near impossible for the next person, so each person has to find what works for them.

The question boils down to "where is the top?" The trite yet true answer is that "nobody knows." If a person knew the price or time of the top, that person could make huge money every trading period, and not have to ask or answer investment style questions on a public forum.

What I tell folks about markets, is that there a thousand ways to go about it. It is important to find a style that suits a person's personality, and strengths. Some can be more flexible and do a variety of things. A good way to find a style that works is to keep a journal of transactions and the reasoning at the time, buy-sell-or-hold, and then learn what works for you.

derryb

I feel more comfortable holding burnished gold long term. Modern gold comms are my worst experience with gold spouses coming in a close second.

Gold price movement has a lot to do with "hot" and should be taken into consideration on expected returns.

OPA

<< <i>Here's my question: If you are lucky enough to buy the right coin with lots of potential, at the right price - and then you watch it climb and climb and climb - at what point do you sell it? Do you sell it at the peak, or do you decide to keep it (even if it starts a decline in price) while it becomes more firmly established as the Key of the Series? Or do you just keep it permanently? >>



Coins for my personal collections, I'll take to my grave The rest, just like PM's, are an investment and of course I'll try to sell at the peak or close to it. Actually, it's quite easy. "Hot" modern issued bullion coins, I know there are exceptions, normally peak within 3 month of issue. (Last 2 years of special issued ASE's & Buffalo's set(s) are a good example)

ricko

I am a collector/stacker.... as such, I really do not sell coins.... I have sold a couple of darkside gold sets, but that is all. Cheers, RickO

JohnMaben

It's human nature to forget who we are. When you find yourself pondering questions like this, you need to have a talk with yourself and ask:

1) Am I an opportunist (or dealer) placing profit above all else in making this decision.
2) Am I a collector or investor with longer term thinking.
3) Am I a combination of #1 and #2.

Once you remind yourself who you are the decisions come easier.

John

jmski52

It's human nature to forget who we are. When you find yourself pondering questions like this, you need to have a talk with yourself and ask:

1) Am I an opportunist (or dealer) placing profit above all else in making this decision.
2) Am I a collector or investor with longer term thinking.
3) Am I a combination of #1 and #2.

Once you remind yourself who you are the decisions come easier.


Lol, this reminds me of when I first became a collector in the early '60s. My older brother and his friend were engaged in an exciting discussion about some coin that they were going to find (I think it must have been a 1960-P Small Date) if they looked through a bunch of rolls, and I couldn't quite wrap my head around the concept that a penny could somehow be worth more than a penny.

My thoughts were something like, "that's really stupid". But the more I pondered it, the more I wondered how rich I would be if I could find a bunch of them myself.

It's been downhill ever since.

Overdate

<< <i>My older brother and his friend were engaged in an exciting discussion about some coin that they were going to find (I think it must have been a 1960-P Small Date) if they looked through a bunch of rolls, and I couldn't quite wrap my head around the concept that a penny could somehow be worth more than a penny. >>


I also started collecting in the early 1960's. Never found a 1960 Philly small date (even though I lived on the east coast) but found plenty of the Denver ones. I've never heard of anyone else finding a 60-P small date either, and have never seen a circulated one for sale. I suspect that the entire mintage of about 2 million was captured by dealers or speculators before reaching circulation.

BAJJERFAN

If they are silver coins with a possibility of getting the dreaded "milk spots" dump them while they are spot free.

TwoSides2aCoin

Two way marketing is not spam....
<-----buy buy buy
-------> Sell, sell, sell

Tirade Tirade TRADE

In short: TTT

Profit, Enjoy, Advance

Cakes

<< <i>Flip it while it's hot. I hung onto my 25th anniversary sets for too long (about 1.5 years). I could have sold any time in that range to realize about the same gain as I actually did. But as derryb said, I could have reinvested that money that much sooner into another (hopefully) profitable venture. >>



I have two of those graded sets, a PCGS 69 & 70, how are they doing?

renman95

Ah, when to sell. comrade, it's like making old-country pancakes. You first pick the right skillet. It can be new. Heat it up. Then add butter, let it melt leaving an even layer, then add the mix. Let the mix slowly bubble up. Then just before the pancake begins to burn....YOU FLIP 'EM! See, it's easy-peasy.

dpoole

While everyone is poo-pooing the modern gold commems and the first spouses, I'm stealthily and "contrarianally" buying these low-mintage red-haired step-kids as they come out, and sitting and doing nothing for the foreseeable future.

Worst case: gold's gold. Best case: who knows.

hchcoin

<< <i>for so-called collector bullion, dump it when you see a substantial gain. the meaning of "substantial" is in the eyes of the beholder. the 2009 ultra high relief saints are a great example.

of course, the answer will be different if you're actually a collector of this stuff -- rather than primarily a bullion stacker. >>