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NAZ back to 5,000 and beyond?

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  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>link >>



    Nice one.
    image
  • VanHalenVanHalen Posts: 3,991 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>link >>



    Nice one.
    image >>



    This chart represents quite accurately what has happened in America over the last 40 years. Just change the titles.
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭
    folks can even customize their time frames, and add their own comparison securities, whether the ones they invested in, or the ones they woulda coulda shoulda, or wish they had not

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,121 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Great chart...bookmarked it...thanks
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,850 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Of greater interest would be that in 2000 the NAZ was only above 5000 for a few hours. Virtually no one owns it there. A more realistic "high" would be the few weeks of trading around the 4600 level. One should also use this approach in determining the high of silver in 2011 which really is closer to the 44-45 area.

    Yep.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • C0INB0YC0INB0Y Posts: 627 ✭✭
    It will be a double top...get ready for a huge Gold and Silver buying opportunity like last time.....sell...get into cash...take it out of the Banks...and keep the powder dry!

    Remember seeing those bumper stickers "Please Lord, just one more Bubble" ?

    This is the Bumper Sticker wish...better make it while you can...I wouldn't want to be a Bankster on the next crash ;>




    << <i>image >>

    I was ‘COINB0Y' with 4812 posts and ‘Expert Collector’ ranking (Joined in 2006).
  • s4nys4ny Posts: 1,569 ✭✭✭
    If you have money, and do not owe money, it is easy to make money.

    Going back to 2000, you
    made money in stocks, gold, bonds, and real estate.

  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭
    And the beat goes on...5056...a new record.
  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,121 ✭✭✭✭✭
    How about revising your title to: NASDAQ back to 6000 or Gold $2,000?
    My answer would still be the same...NASDAQimage
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>How about revising your title to: NASDAQ back to 6000 or Gold $2,000?
    My answer would still be the same...NASDAQimage >>



    How about...NASDAQ back to 2,000 or Gold $6,000? image
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,850 ✭✭✭✭✭
    How about...NASDAQ back to 2,000 or Gold $6,000? image

    If that happens, I'll never let you all hear the end of it.image
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,121 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>How about revising your title to: NASDAQ back to 6000 or Gold $2,000?
    My answer would still be the same...NASDAQimage >>



    How about...NASDAQ back to 2,000 or Gold $6,000? image >>



    Now that would only be in a SHTF scenario or your worst nightmare. And other peoples nightmares do not concern me. In a SHTF scenario, all the gold in the world would not help. image
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,850 ✭✭✭✭✭
    <<How about...NASDAQ back to 2,000 or Gold $6,000? >>

    Now that would only be in a SHTF scenario or your worst nightmare.


    That's what has always been accepted as fait accompi (sp?), but I'm not so sure it would be a SHTF EOTWAWKI scenario. The Fed has distorted the stock market significantly beyond the reality of the fundamentals, but the hoped-for utopia hasn't happened either.

    In the final analysis, it's all about what people define as having value. When I watch those Mark Dice videos in which he tries to sell or give away a 1 ozer of gold without success, it makes me wonder whether value will be perceived as some type of i-chip or just a bag of Cheetos - it's really hard to predict, these days. I know what my own preconceptions are, but I'm not so sure that some other medium of value retention won't prevail.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,124 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Text The Fed has distorted the stock market significantly beyond the reality of the fundamentals,

    Nothing I can say would change your opinion so I will just emphatically state that you are wrong.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭
    What event(s) would cause the NAZ to dive to 2k and gold to rocket to $6k?
  • grote15grote15 Posts: 29,693 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Gold at 2,000? It look like it's about to drop below $1,000.


    Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,850 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I will just emphatically state that you are wrong.

    A cursory look at the past 6 years shows a lackluster economy coupled with a rising stock market propelled by Fed liquidity and corporate stock buybacks, and a rising bond market motivated by frontrunning of the Fed's "Bernanke put".

    It has mostly to do with a transfer of wealth from the earnings of middle class taxpayers and the savings of fixed income retirees - to the drug companies, insurance companies, political insiders, the banking system, and the wealthy top 0.1%.

    Not much of this has anything to do with a balance between market supply & demand of manufactured goods, improving worker incomes, better satisfying consumer needs or improving the efficiency of operations.

    It's mostly been about finance, and finance doesn't produce anything but it does direct the allocation of resources. I would contend that the allocations have been geared towards getting investors to "pile in" rather than to generate profits through actual work or actual production. It's become a shell game, in many cases. My perspective.



    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • seebelowseebelow Posts: 1,643 ✭✭✭
    some think its headed below 1000....looking at the chart, it looks like it forming a base at 1100 where it would have to break through 1050, roughly and I'm def not a chartist...

    what indications makes it look like its headed down thru 1000? I'm genuinely asking. And was going to continue buying PMs,of course.....theres the full proof indicator...when I'm buying america should be selling...
    interesting..
    Interested in higher grade vintage cards. Aren't we all. image
  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i> I will just emphatically state that you are wrong.

    A cursory look at the past 6 years shows a lackluster economy coupled with a rising stock market propelled by Fed liquidity and corporate stock buybacks, and a rising bond market motivated by frontrunning of the Fed's "Bernanke put".

    It has mostly to do with a transfer of wealth from the earnings of middle class taxpayers and the savings of fixed income retirees - to the drug companies, insurance companies, political insiders, the banking system, and the wealthy top 0.1%.

    Not much of this has anything to do with a balance between market supply & demand of manufactured goods, improving worker incomes, better satisfying consumer needs or improving the efficiency of operations.

    It's mostly been about finance, and finance doesn't produce anything but it does direct the allocation of resources. I would contend that the allocations have been geared towards getting investors to "pile in" rather than to generate profits through actual work or actual production. It's become a shell game, in many cases. My perspective. >>



    comrade jmski, nuttink make cents when comrades live under alice in his Wunderland, no, hahahaha.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,124 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i> I will just emphatically state that you are wrong.

    A cursory look at the past 6 years shows a lackluster economy coupled with a rising stock market propelled by Fed liquidity and corporate stock buybacks, and a rising bond market motivated by frontrunning of the Fed's "Bernanke put".

    It has mostly to do with a transfer of wealth from the earnings of middle class taxpayers and the savings of fixed income retirees - to the drug companies, insurance companies, political insiders, the banking system, and the wealthy top 0.1%.

    Not much of this has anything to do with a balance between market supply & demand of manufactured goods, improving worker incomes, better satisfying consumer needs or improving the efficiency of operations.

    It's mostly been about finance, and finance doesn't produce anything but it does direct the allocation of resources. I would contend that the allocations have been geared towards getting investors to "pile in" rather than to generate profits through actual work or actual production. It's become a shell game, in many cases. My perspective. >>



    Evidence to refute each and every claim is easily available though just a little research. However, your mind is made and nothing I would post would alter your position.

    Information on intermarket relationships, economic and monetary policy effects on consumer and currency markets, and relative valuation and pricing models have been discussed on this board for a decade. Sorry if you missed it.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,850 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Information on intermarket relationships, economic and monetary policy effects on consumer and currency markets, and relative valuation and pricing models have been discussed on this board for a decade. Sorry if you missed it.

    Graham Leach Bliley was done just for the banks. The bank bailouts and TARP were done just for the banks. Forcing FASB to change their position on asset valuation was done only for the banks. QE didn't work for anyone except the banks. In past administrations, these guys would've been prosecuted but starting in 1999 the banking industry became a protected species regardless of how much they jimmied the system for their own enrichment.

    If you don't understand this much and recognize the problem(s), it's only your own willful participation that colors your opinion. I can't accept your premise that corrupt banks should be protected at the expense of honest taxpayers.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,124 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Addressing faults in an economic system is productive, no?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,823 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Addressing faults in an economic system is productive, no? >>


    Not unless they are fixed.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i> I will just emphatically state that you are wrong.

    A cursory look at the past 6 years shows a lackluster economy coupled with a rising stock market propelled by Fed liquidity and corporate stock buybacks, and a rising bond market motivated by frontrunning of the Fed's "Bernanke put".

    It has mostly to do with a transfer of wealth from the earnings of middle class taxpayers and the savings of fixed income retirees - to the drug companies, insurance companies, political insiders, the banking system, and the wealthy top 0.1%.

    Not much of this has anything to do with a balance between market supply & demand of manufactured goods, improving worker incomes, better satisfying consumer needs or improving the efficiency of operations.

    It's mostly been about finance, and finance doesn't produce anything but it does direct the allocation of resources. I would contend that the allocations have been geared towards getting investors to "pile in" rather than to generate profits through actual work or actual production. It's become a shell game, in many cases. My perspective. >>



    There is definitely some of that going on, although I'd contend that the distribution of the benefits of "success" in the economy is a little more widespread than just going to the top 0.1%.

    By definition, exactly half of Americans are doing "better" than the other half. If one gets out there and travels around, they see a lot of economic activity and success among "ordinary" people, outside of evil banksters, corporate titans, and other financial moguls and string pullers. Once again, there are large percentages of people doing "worse than average" and way worse than the top earners.

    When has it been otherwise? If you ask me what the problem with the lower 50% is, it's not what "they" are doing to the poor victims, it's a victim mentality that blames others for personal choices and outcomes.

    For example, if someone understands full well "what's going on" and "how things work" , then why would they refuse to at least put a little capital to work in the same systems, to get a bit of benefit?

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,850 ✭✭✭✭✭
    if someone understands full well "what's going on" and "how things work" , then why would they refuse to at least put a little capital to work in the same systems, to get a bit of benefit?

    Because it appears to be too much like a Ponzi scheme and the people who should be held accountable will never be held accountable. That being the case, it seems to me that it will get worse before it gets better, and I see no reason to throw my own money into that system, especially if I think there's going to be a shakeout - which I do.

    And yeah, it sure does look like precious metals investors have taken some hits while stock investors are flush. I also know what it's like to ride a precious metals boom or a high tech stock boom right up to the top. Any investor with a few decades of experience has seen these things before. Any investor who reads history also knows what can happen - both bad and good.

    I'm picking my battles, Baley. I don't need the stock market, especially the one we have right now with the bankers who are running it. If they ever decide to clean it up, I'll be back. It could be awhile.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭
    5,132, yet another record.
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Addressing faults in an economic system is productive, no? >>



    Yes, they did that in the 1930's by instituting regulations on banking and stocks. Then undid a lot of it in 1999-2001. Not productive.

    They instituted new banking controls in Dodd-Frank following the financial crisis. Lobbyists for the big banks have essentially gutted 80% of those over the past few years. The 20% that's left are still being "worked on" to make them go away as well. Not productive. DF suggested making the big banks smaller. They were made even bigger than before.

    Rather than addressing faults, the regulators and government seem to be addressing ways to keep the TBTF banks profitable (ie the only "flaw" they see are banks not being profitable enough). Addressing real flaws is a healthy goal. I don't see any of that happening.
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭
    5,218

    What we need is another thread to wander and wonder in over the next five years.

    image
  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,121 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>5,218

    What we need is another thread to wander and wonder in over the next five years.

    image >>



    Make it a challenge....what first...NASDAQ 5,700 or gold at $1,250image (about a 10% gain for both)
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • s4nys4ny Posts: 1,569 ✭✭✭
    It doesn't matter why the stock market rose for the last 6 years.

    The Nasdaq Composite more than quadrupled from its low (1266) and you could have
    made money.



  • VanHalenVanHalen Posts: 3,991 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>5,218

    What we need is another thread to wander and wonder in over the next five years.

    image >>



    Try this thread title on for size and if you like it I'll start the thread. image

    Gold back to $600 or NASDAQ 6,000?
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>5,218

    What we need is another thread to wander and wonder in over the next five years.

    image >>



    Try this thread title on for size and if you like it I'll start the thread. image

    Gold back to $600 or NASDAQ 6,000? >>



    A realistic question at this time might be, which will occur first, Gold back to $1380 (+20%), or Nasdaq to 6260 (+20%) ?

    edit: or up ( or down) ~ 10%, as OPA has suggested. Either way, gotta start from today, like the original question, which was clearly answered by participants, and the outcome determined, as time passed.

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Original thread title: NASDAQ back to 5,000 or Gold $2,000?

    Which will occur first? And why?

    (It's been over 13 years since the NASDAQ reached 5,048 and 2 years since Gold hit $1,900.)

    /////

    Version 2.0
    It's been 6 years since the Great Recession. Gold touched $810 in 2009. Gold has trended lower since 2011. So will will the trend continue and reach its 2009 low, a haircut of approximately 25% from here or will the NAZ, which has trended upwardly since, reach 6,360...a 25% increase?

    July 26, 2015
    Gold - 1085
    NAZ - 5088
  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,121 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>A realistic question at this time might be, which will occur first, Gold back to $1380 (+20%), or Nasdaq to 6260 (+20%) ? >>



    As a contrarian by nature, I'll go with gold. I'm not a gold bug, but consider it just another "asset" class. Unlike gold, NASDAQ has not had a major correction since 2009 and is overdue for one, which will take it below 4,000. At that point it would require a 50% + gain to achieve $6200.
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • BBNBBN Posts: 3,761 ✭✭✭
    Hard to say, but it'll be a few years for either one. The Nasdaq is due for a serious downturn and if gold does increase, it'll be slow going. I'll go with Nasdaq first, but not until 2017 or 2018 or later.

    Positive BST Transactions (buyers and sellers): wondercoin, blu62vette, BAJJERFAN, privatecoin, blu62vette, AlanLastufka, privatecoin

    #1 1951 Bowman Los Angeles Rams Team Set
    #2 1980 Topps Los Angeles Rams Team Set
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  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭
    NAZ back below 5000...down 95 (2%.)
    Gold up almost 2% to 1147.
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Here's a 5 year chart for those keeping score..

    edit: I tried to plot "GLD" for comparison, do not know if the link works, you might have to enter your comparison security in the little box and hit enter to see the percentage changes.
    Can also choose different times, 1 year, 2 year, 10 year, etc.

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭
    did it work?

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭
    NAZ @ 4,526...going the wrong way. How low will it go?
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,823 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: renman95
    NAZ @ 4,526...going the wrong way. How low will it go?

    lower, until the FED reverses course and offers up a new and improved QE.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: derryb
    Originally posted by: renman95
    NAZ @ 4,526...going the wrong way. How low will it go?

    lower, until the FED reverses course and offers up a new and improved QE.



    Love your sig comrade db. Dear Leader's timing couldn't have been any better.

    ///

    So the question is, will the Fed be pig-headed and raise three more times as hinted or admit defeat and lower? Even if the markets replay half of the turmoil of 2008 in kind, I can't see the Fed standing pat.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,823 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: renman95
    Originally posted by: derryb
    Originally posted by: renman95
    NAZ @ 4,526...going the wrong way. How low will it go?

    lower, until the FED reverses course and offers up a new and improved QE.



    Love your sig comrade db. Dear Leader's timing couldn't have been any better.

    ///

    So the question is, will the Fed be pig-headed and raise three more times as hinted or admit defeat and lower? Even if the markets replay half of the turmoil of 2008 in kind, I can't see the Fed standing pat.

    FED's gotta squeeze oranges before they can refill the punch bowl.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭
    NAZ is 40 shy of 5000 (again) after an eight month swoon. Do we go higher or revisit recent lows...around 4266?
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,823 ✭✭✭✭✭
    From Greenspan just today: ""Monetary policy … has done everything it can unless you want to put additional QEs on."

    Prime the presses.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Back over 5,000.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,124 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 28, 2018 4:12PM

    Well, that was a bold and decisive prediction. How did he do?

    The Naz did indeed break 5000 on 3/2/15, hitting a high of 5232 that year. That move proved short-lived as it dropped nearly 20% over the next several weeks. A subsequent rally over a few months took it back over 5000 for a few weeks before another nearly 20% drop over the next month. Another rally attempt failed before 5000 and sideways action for 4 months ensued. It was not until the middle of 2016 before a sustainable rally would begin and it never broke below 5000 again.

    So in summary, yes it did break 5000 before mid 2016, however it really never moved and stayed above 5000 until mid 2016 and actually spent more time below 5000 than above it from Mar 2015 to July 2016. So for a prediction made 3 years earlier, I think that dude did pretty well. I'd give him a C+......Nah, thats probably a A-. ;)

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • VanHalenVanHalen Posts: 3,991 ✭✭✭✭✭

    17%+ per year average annual growth over the last 5 years running. US economy grew at ~2.4% per year during that same time period.

  • dpooledpoole Posts: 5,940 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Says something about where all the stimulus money went after the 2008 bust.

  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,121 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I re read this thread. And it appears, that the same posters who've been wrong so many times before, once again "struck out."

    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
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