Cohodk, I didn't see your question from last year about what 13 year wedge I was referring to. It's actually a 16 year expanding wedge in Dow all the way back to 1998. While it could be a fresh break out pointing to lofty highs years down the road, it could also be an ending pattern of a massive SM bubble started 82 years ago. The past several months have built another expanded wedge on top of the current 16 yr one. Armstrong views a world wide sovereign debt crisis beginning in Oct 2015 that will level any bubble still remaining from the 2003-2015 period. He concedes that it's possible for stocks to keep churning to Dow 23,000, even 40,000+ depending on how the US economy reacts to the inflows of foreign money as they experience their sov. debt crisis. He also figures gold will be decimated one final time before the new safe havens of the debt crisis emerge.
Maybe Christmas (5,000) is coming 2 years early for the Nasdaq? What better way to test the mettle of the bulls and bears than by a retest of 2000 Nasdaq highs? The DOW and S&P have already been there.
<< <i>I recall a friend calling me in 1987 after the DJ crossed 2700. He said, we are going to 3000!!!
It got there, but it took a few years after a trip down to the 1600's.
This challenge may take a couple more years for a repeat of 5000. Multiples are pretty tightly stretched. >>
You have been saying that for the past year and a half or so...you were an extreme bear along the ride for so much of this bull market. You have been wrong for thousands of points.
Positive BST transactions with Timbuk3, coindeuce, charlottedude.
<< <i>While the markets are up Im thinking of cashing out my 401k plan.
I dont trust those damn feds and our fiat currency. >>
Don't do it yet. Wall Street's investment in The Fed and D.C. has rewarded them handsomely and there's a few more oranges to squeeze on Main Street.
>>
Yeah, wait til Obama's out of office and a 'Pub is in. Then debt, deficits, real unemployment, wage inequality, oversea contingencies, workplace terrorism, etc., will matter. Then the Media will talk down the Markets. The goal is to cement O's lagacy with a 7k to 20k run on the Dow.
<< <i>The Nasdaq composite cannot/will not hit 5000 before middle of 2016. >>
cohodk.....do you still subscribe to that prediction? >>
What a beast the nasdaq has been. Lets focus on the blue line starting in Apr 2010. I had expected the naz to find resistance at this line in mid-2013, but instead we got an acceleration and breakout. These type of breakouts usually result in a 10-15% quick move higher, which is exactly what we got. Most times this is a "blowoff" top which precludes either a substantial (20%) decline or an extended period of sideways trade. But not this market as it moved another 10%, so far, higher.
Now the market could be putting in a rising wedge pattern noted by the line starting in about March 2014. Connecting the top in late 2014 and extending we reach 5100--the record high--this summer. The bottom of this rising wedge is noted by the line starting in late 2012. It will bisect the other line also this summer. Something will give within the next 6 months. Either further acceleration, or at a minimum consolidation. Its very possible the naz could hit 5000--maybe even within a week. I do believe that in 2016 the naz will either still be at this level or lower.
Another very interesting line is the original uptrend from 2010 that was broken thru in mid-2013. Notice how the naz came back an tested that line twice in 2014. Is it coincidence that it bounced off this line twice? The next test of that line would probably probably also come this summer at about 4500. Lets see if it holds that time.
To add---I broke one of my favorite maxims---Never underestimate the power of a mania.
Never say never when it comes to the Nasdaq.....either at peaks or bottoms. This is pretty much the result of +$4 TRILL to the FED's balance sheet ($3 TRILL more in bank reserves for the TBTJ banks to bet with). It doesn't include what the rest of the world has injected into the monetary system....with a lot of that being sent into the US stock market since they realized as well that Bernanke (and now Yellen) had their backs. As long as everyone believes this, the mania will continue. Looks like an all time Nasdaq high will be in 2015 to coincide with the Armstrong 8.6 yr economic confidence model peak. Then it's 4.3 years down into an ECM bottom....and addressing the 120 yrs of markets being up-leveraged. And then how about the potential of that 17 year - 5 wave expanding Dow/S&P 500 wedge (1998-2015)? When the money flows shift from the US stock markets and treasuries to somewhere else....it will be a monster in reverse. It should make 2011, 2002, 1993, 1976, etc. look like cake walks. It's interesting how many important lows of the past 250 years occurred on these 8.6 yr anniversaries.
<< <i>Never say never when it comes to the Nasdaq.....either at peaks or bottoms. This is pretty much the result of +$4 TRILL to the FED's balance sheet ($3 TRILL more in bank reserves for the TBTJ banks to bet with). It doesn't include what the rest of the world has injected into the monetary system....with a lot of that being sent into the US stock market since they realized as well that Bernanke (and now Yellen) had their backs. As long as everyone believes this, the mania will continue. Looks like an all time Nasdaq high will be in 2015 to coincide with the Armstrong 8.6 yr economic confidence model peak. Then it's 4.3 years down into an ECM bottom....and addressing the 120 yrs of markets being up-leveraged. And then how about the potential of that 17 year - 5 wave expanding Dow/S&P 500 wedge (1998-2015)? When the money flows shift from the US stock markets and treasuries to somewhere else....it will be a monster in reverse. It should make 2011, 2002, 1993, 1976, etc. look like cake walks. It's interesting how many important lows of the past 250 years occurred on these 8.6 yr anniversaries. >>
The big question is where does the money go once confidence is lost?
<< <i>The big question is where does the money go once confidence is lost? >>
Precious metals and commodities are two possibilities since they tend to bottom during ECM peaking periods. Other choices would be different parts of the globe that haven't yet been insanely over-leveraged. Gold has nearly followed a perfect ECM path from the 2011 low towards the 2015 high. The period will have some similarities to 2000-2003 and 2007-2011. Where did money flow (or not flow to) during those times? Probably towards assets considered to be safe havens on sorts. You can be sure that govts will "try" to funnel money towards things they approve. How successful will they be? Extra taxes, VATs, windfall profits, more regulations, etc. could certainly make people think twice about "unproductive" safe havens that are not USDA approved.
I think the Nasdaq will leave 5100 well behind in 2015 (or even 2016) as it makes up for lost ground catching up to the % records formed in the S&P and Dow.
When the money flows shift from the US stock markets and treasuries to somewhere else....it will be a monster in reverse. It should make 2011, 2002, 1993, 1976, etc. look like cake walks.
Precious metals and commodities are two possibilities since they tend to bottom during ECM peaking periods. Other choices would be different parts of the globe that haven't yet been insanely over-leveraged. Gold has nearly followed a perfect ECM path from the 2011 low towards the 2015 high. The period will have some similarities to 2000-2003 and 2007-2011. Where did money flow (or not flow to) during those times? Probably towards assets considered to be safe havens on sorts. You can be sure that govts will "try" to funnel money towards things they approve. How successful will they be? Extra taxes, VATs, windfall profits, more regulations, etc. could certainly make people think twice about "unproductive" safe havens that are not USDA approved.
So far, it's simply been a case of "expanding the balance sheet" of the FED. But a monetary approach doesn't solve the problems of slow economic conditions and mis-allocation of capital which is exascerbated by government regulatory overreach and an aggressive tax structure. I think everything continues on this same path, until a major supply chain disruption. Monetary policy can't solve things like a refinery fire and lack of refinery capacity. But it can throw a wrench into the ability of the economy to bring more refineries online more easily. LA has two refineries out of action now. Let's see how that works itself out. It ain't gonna happen by giving the banks more free money for the bonus pool.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I think the Nasdaq will leave 5100 well behind in 2015 (or even 2016) as it makes up for lost ground catching up to the % records formed in the S&P and Dow.
Very possible. Dont you wish you hadnt been so negative on equities the last 5 years?
But onto a different point. What happens to prices of "things" when equities, (which no one owns, LOL) continue higher and higher? To all the newfound deflationists out there, I say "BOO !!!"
When the money flows shift from the US stock markets and treasuries to somewhere else....it will be a monster in reverse.
As it always does. Real estate tripled, gold septupled...what else is new?
<< <i>The big question is where does the money go once confidence is lost? >>
Precious metals and commodities are two possibilities since they tend to bottom during ECM peaking periods. Other choices would be different parts of the globe that haven't yet been insanely over-leveraged. Gold has nearly followed a perfect ECM path from the 2011 low towards the 2015 high. The period will have some similarities to 2000-2003 and 2007-2011. Where did money flow (or not flow to) during those times? Probably towards assets considered to be safe havens on sorts. You can be sure that govts will "try" to funnel money towards things they approve. How successful will they be? Extra taxes, VATs, windfall profits, more regulations, etc. could certainly make people think twice about "unproductive" safe havens that are not USDA approved.
I think the Nasdaq will leave 5100 well behind in 2015 (or even 2016) as it makes up for lost ground catching up to the % records formed in the S&P and Dow. >>
roadrunner, you're gonna have to tell me what ECM means. In my world it's electronic countermeasures.
<< <i>Does anyone think that maybe the nasdaq got back to 5000 based on company earnings?
Not just fed policy and 'mania' ? >>
.
No, we're all in "the Matrix" and everything is an illusion, the only people who are living in "reality" live in gray hovels, wear grey clothes, and eat grey paste, and fight gray monsters.
<< <i>Does anyone think that maybe the nasdaq got back to 5000 based on company earnings?
Not just fed policy and 'mania' ? >>
.
No, we're all in "the Matrix" and everything is an illusion, the only people who are living in "reality" live in gray hovels, wear grey clothes, and eat grey paste, and fight gray monsters. >>
<< <i>Does anyone think that maybe the nasdaq got back to 5000 based on company earnings?
Not just fed policy and 'mania' ? >>
.
No, we're all in "the Matrix" and everything is an illusion, the only people who are living in "reality" live in gray hovels, wear grey clothes, and eat grey paste, and fight gray monsters. >>
*soylent green >>
Mania !
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<<Where do you think the new money's been going?>>
To investors?
You tell me. Gee, I thought it was going to banks, to lend to companies, to stimulate the economy. Not to assets. I thought companies were supposed to be making more money because they have become more efficient, more productive, economies of scale, product innovation............
Now you tell me it's just been going into stock prices, to investors?
Isn't that what "expanding the balance sheet" is all about anyhow?
I guess we'll see what happens without a full punchbowl. Stay tuned.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>Does anyone think that maybe the nasdaq got back to 5000 based on company earnings?
Not just fed policy and 'mania' ?
Hmmmmm. If my company decided to buy some assets, and took out loans to do it, my balance sheet would look like this:
Assets - $1,000,000
Liabilities - $1,000,000
It's pretty easy to see where the money went, and where the liabilities came from.
Since 2008 the Fed's injected over $4 trillion into the banking system.
It's easy to track the increase in national debt. Where do you think the new money's been going? >>
In 2008, the stock market was worth about $13 trillion. Im using the SP-500 as my benchmark and am using a value of 950 on the index--the "market" low was almost 30% lower so I am not going to use the bottom so people dont think I am trying to skew the numbers. Today the market is worth about $27 trillion. So if $4 trillion came from the FED, where did the other $10 trillion come from?
Maybe we should just lop 15% off the market ($4 trillion) and give it back to the FED. Wouldnt that make everyone happy then?
<< <i><<Where do you think the new money's been going?>>
To investors?
You tell me. Gee, I thought it was going to banks, to lend to companies, to stimulate the economy. Not to assets. I thought companies were supposed to be making more money because they have become more efficient, more productive, economies of scale, product innovation............
Now you tell me it's just been going into stock prices, to investors?
Isn't that what "expanding the balance sheet" is all about anyhow?
I guess we'll see what happens without a full punchbowl. Stay tuned. >>
I guess by asking, "investors?" I was asking, not telling.
And I guess by "investors" I broadly meant companies that "invest" in plant, equipment, and employees, and otherwise building their business into hopefully a success, with the characteristics you mention. As well as to the "investors" who buy stock and thus participate in this growth of science and industry. "Assets" can take many forms, including physical, business, and human resource assets,
not necessarily "just" to stock market investors (who risk their capital), but instead, "also" Tothem
Its a little interesting that the nasdaq 100, which is the largest 100 companies on Nasdaq is still about 7% below its peak. Even more interesting that Apple is a member of the nas100 and was largely responsible for the run in the nasdaq composite. Several of the old, big tech stocks still well below those peaks. INTC still 40% below, CSCO 60% below.
The Nasdaq 100 is not the largest 100 companies on the Nasdaq. For instance, it includes no financial companies. It is 55+% technology. It includes non-US companies.
The best benchmark for US equities is the S&P 500. That index has blown way past all of its previous highs.
I didn't say it was the largest 100 companies. I said it was the 100 largest on NASDAQ. My attempt was to eliminate thousands of small companies listed on the NASDAQ comp.
But if you want a truer picture of the us stock market use the Wilshire 5000.
If the NAZ was back to its inflation adjusted highs would that justify consideration that the economy aint so bad?
Also, looks like the NAZ was a pretty good buy in 2009, certainly much better than other assets.
And when one considers the ABSOLUTELY RIDICULOUS valuations given to the NAZ in 2000, and compares with valuations today, it has been quite a remarkable recovery.
Of greater interest would be that in 2000 the NAZ was only above 5000 for a few hours. Virtually no one owns it there. A more realistic "high" would be the few weeks of trading around the 4600 level. One should also use this approach in determining the high of silver in 2011 which really is closer to the 44-45 area.
start the graph in 2010, 2005, 1995, or 1990. And also would be very interesting to add specific stocks, as well as the other asset classes.
hell, start it in 1980 >>
I just plucked that chart from the interwebzzzz as is . I looked around for something where I could make my own and do gold or something else versus the NASDAQ over the same span adjusted for CPI but I can't come up with anything.
Comments
1185
<< <i>I recall a friend calling me in 1987 after the DJ crossed 2700. He said, we are going to 3000!!!
It got there, but it took a few years after a trip down to the 1600's.
This challenge may take a couple more years for a repeat of 5000. Multiples are pretty tightly stretched. >>
You think gold is going to 2,000 and...the market is going down...big time, maybe? Other than amazon, what have you been shorting?
<< <i>I recall a friend calling me in 1987 after the DJ crossed 2700. He said, we are going to 3000!!!
It got there, but it took a few years after a trip down to the 1600's.
This challenge may take a couple more years for a repeat of 5000. Multiples are pretty tightly stretched. >>
You have been saying that for the past year and a half or so...you were an extreme bear along the ride for so much of this bull market. You have been wrong for thousands of points.
<< <i>4,857.61 >>
How did u get the total value balance on glicker's stock account?...
<< <i>The Nasdaq composite cannot/will not hit 5000 before middle of 2016. >>
cohodk.....do you still subscribe to that prediction?
-1,229.20 Up 8.50(0.70%)
I dont trust those damn feds and our fiat currency.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>While the markets are up Im thinking of cashing out my 401k plan.
I dont trust those damn feds and our fiat currency. >>
Don't do it yet. Wall Street's investment in The Fed and D.C. has rewarded them handsomely and there's a few more oranges to squeeze on Main Street.
<< <i>
<< <i>While the markets are up Im thinking of cashing out my 401k plan.
I dont trust those damn feds and our fiat currency. >>
Don't do it yet. Wall Street's investment in The Fed and D.C. has rewarded them handsomely and there's a few more oranges to squeeze on Main Street.
Yeah, wait til Obama's out of office and a 'Pub is in. Then debt, deficits, real unemployment, wage inequality, oversea contingencies, workplace terrorism, etc., will matter. Then the Media will talk down the Markets. The goal is to cement O's lagacy with a 7k to 20k run on the Dow.
<< <i>
<< <i>The Nasdaq composite cannot/will not hit 5000 before middle of 2016. >>
cohodk.....do you still subscribe to that prediction? >>
What a beast the nasdaq has been. Lets focus on the blue line starting in Apr 2010. I had expected the naz to find resistance at this line in mid-2013, but instead we got an acceleration and breakout. These type of breakouts usually result in a 10-15% quick move higher, which is exactly what we got. Most times this is a "blowoff" top which precludes either a substantial (20%) decline or an extended period of sideways trade. But not this market as it moved another 10%, so far, higher.
Now the market could be putting in a rising wedge pattern noted by the line starting in about March 2014. Connecting the top in late 2014 and extending we reach 5100--the record high--this summer. The bottom of this rising wedge is noted by the line starting in late 2012. It will bisect the other line also this summer. Something will give within the next 6 months. Either further acceleration, or at a minimum consolidation. Its very possible the naz could hit 5000--maybe even within a week. I do believe that in 2016 the naz will either still be at this level or lower.
Another very interesting line is the original uptrend from 2010 that was broken thru in mid-2013. Notice how the naz came back an tested that line twice in 2014. Is it coincidence that it bounced off this line twice? The next test of that line would probably probably also come this summer at about 4500. Lets see if it holds that time.
To add---I broke one of my favorite maxims---Never underestimate the power of a mania.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Less than 100 to go!
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>Took some more nasdaq stocks profits yesterday, going shopping for gold today >>
Prolly a good idea. I'm starting to get an itchey gold finger.
At this rate the index could top 5000 next week. Record high was 5048.
<< <i>Never say never when it comes to the Nasdaq.....either at peaks or bottoms. This is pretty much the result of +$4 TRILL to the FED's balance sheet ($3 TRILL more in bank reserves for the TBTJ banks to bet with). It doesn't include what the rest of the world has injected into the monetary system....with a lot of that being sent into the US stock market since they realized as well that Bernanke (and now Yellen) had their backs. As long as everyone believes this, the mania will continue. Looks like an all time Nasdaq high will be in 2015 to coincide with the Armstrong 8.6 yr economic confidence model peak. Then it's 4.3 years down into an ECM bottom....and addressing the 120 yrs of markets being up-leveraged. And then how about the potential of that 17 year - 5 wave expanding Dow/S&P 500 wedge (1998-2015)? When the money flows shift from the US stock markets and treasuries to somewhere else....it will be a monster in reverse. It should make 2011, 2002, 1993, 1976, etc. look like cake walks. It's interesting how many important lows of the past 250 years occurred on these 8.6 yr anniversaries. >>
The big question is where does the money go once confidence is lost?
I pick the NASDAQ
<< <i>The big question is where does the money go once confidence is lost? >>
Precious metals and commodities are two possibilities since they tend to bottom during ECM peaking periods. Other choices would be different parts of the globe that haven't yet been insanely over-leveraged. Gold has nearly followed a perfect ECM path from the 2011 low towards the 2015 high. The period will have some similarities to 2000-2003 and 2007-2011. Where did money flow (or not flow to) during those times? Probably towards assets considered to be safe havens on sorts. You can be sure that govts will "try" to funnel money towards things they approve. How successful will they be? Extra taxes, VATs, windfall profits, more regulations, etc. could certainly make people think twice about "unproductive" safe havens that are not USDA approved.
I think the Nasdaq will leave 5100 well behind in 2015 (or even 2016) as it makes up for lost ground catching up to the % records formed in the S&P and Dow.
When the money flows shift from the US stock markets and treasuries to somewhere else....it will be a monster in reverse. It should make 2011, 2002, 1993, 1976, etc. look like cake walks.
Precious metals and commodities are two possibilities since they tend to bottom during ECM peaking periods. Other choices would be different parts of the globe that haven't yet been insanely over-leveraged. Gold has nearly followed a perfect ECM path from the 2011 low towards the 2015 high. The period will have some similarities to 2000-2003 and 2007-2011. Where did money flow (or not flow to) during those times? Probably towards assets considered to be safe havens on sorts. You can be sure that govts will "try" to funnel money towards things they approve. How successful will they be? Extra taxes, VATs, windfall profits, more regulations, etc. could certainly make people think twice about "unproductive" safe havens that are not USDA approved.
So far, it's simply been a case of "expanding the balance sheet" of the FED. But a monetary approach doesn't solve the problems of slow economic conditions and mis-allocation of capital which is exascerbated by government regulatory overreach and an aggressive tax structure. I think everything continues on this same path, until a major supply chain disruption. Monetary policy can't solve things like a refinery fire and lack of refinery capacity. But it can throw a wrench into the ability of the economy to bring more refineries online more easily. LA has two refineries out of action now. Let's see how that works itself out. It ain't gonna happen by giving the banks more free money for the bonus pool.
I knew it would happen.
Very possible. Dont you wish you hadnt been so negative on equities the last 5 years?
But onto a different point. What happens to prices of "things" when equities, (which no one owns, LOL) continue higher and higher? To all the newfound deflationists out there, I say "BOO !!!"
When the money flows shift from the US stock markets and treasuries to somewhere else....it will be a monster in reverse.
As it always does. Real estate tripled, gold septupled...what else is new?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>The big question is where does the money go once confidence is lost? >>
Precious metals and commodities are two possibilities since they tend to bottom during ECM peaking periods. Other choices would be different parts of the globe that haven't yet been insanely over-leveraged. Gold has nearly followed a perfect ECM path from the 2011 low towards the 2015 high. The period will have some similarities to 2000-2003 and 2007-2011. Where did money flow (or not flow to) during those times? Probably towards assets considered to be safe havens on sorts. You can be sure that govts will "try" to funnel money towards things they approve. How successful will they be? Extra taxes, VATs, windfall profits, more regulations, etc. could certainly make people think twice about "unproductive" safe havens that are not USDA approved.
I think the Nasdaq will leave 5100 well behind in 2015 (or even 2016) as it makes up for lost ground catching up to the % records formed in the S&P and Dow. >>
roadrunner, you're gonna have to tell me what ECM means. In my world it's electronic countermeasures.
Not just fed policy and 'mania' ?
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>Does anyone think that maybe the nasdaq got back to 5000 based on company earnings?
Not just fed policy and 'mania' ? >>
.
No, we're all in "the Matrix" and everything is an illusion, the only people who are living in "reality" live in gray hovels, wear grey clothes, and eat grey paste, and fight gray monsters.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>
<< <i>Does anyone think that maybe the nasdaq got back to 5000 based on company earnings?
Not just fed policy and 'mania' ? >>
.
No, we're all in "the Matrix" and everything is an illusion, the only people who are living in "reality" live in gray hovels, wear grey clothes, and eat grey paste, and fight gray monsters. >>
*soylent green
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Does anyone think that maybe the nasdaq got back to 5000 based on company earnings?
Not just fed policy and 'mania' ? >>
.
No, we're all in "the Matrix" and everything is an illusion, the only people who are living in "reality" live in gray hovels, wear grey clothes, and eat grey paste, and fight gray monsters. >>
*soylent green >>
Mania !
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Not just fed policy and 'mania' ?
Hmmmmm. If my company decided to buy some assets, and took out loans to do it, my balance sheet would look like this:
Assets - $1,000,000
Liabilities - $1,000,000
It's pretty easy to see where the money went, and where the liabilities came from.
Since 2008 the Fed's injected over $4 trillion into the banking system.
It's easy to track the increase in national debt. Where do you think the new money's been going?
I knew it would happen.
To investors?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
To investors?
You tell me. Gee, I thought it was going to banks, to lend to companies, to stimulate the economy. Not to assets. I thought companies were supposed to be making more money because they have become more efficient, more productive, economies of scale, product innovation............
Now you tell me it's just been going into stock prices, to investors?
Isn't that what "expanding the balance sheet" is all about anyhow?
I guess we'll see what happens without a full punchbowl. Stay tuned.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Does anyone think that maybe the nasdaq got back to 5000 based on company earnings?
Not just fed policy and 'mania' ?
Hmmmmm. If my company decided to buy some assets, and took out loans to do it, my balance sheet would look like this:
Assets - $1,000,000
Liabilities - $1,000,000
It's pretty easy to see where the money went, and where the liabilities came from.
Since 2008 the Fed's injected over $4 trillion into the banking system.
It's easy to track the increase in national debt. Where do you think the new money's been going? >>
In 2008, the stock market was worth about $13 trillion. Im using the SP-500 as my benchmark and am using a value of 950 on the index--the "market" low was almost 30% lower so I am not going to use the bottom so people dont think I am trying to skew the numbers. Today the market is worth about $27 trillion. So if $4 trillion came from the FED, where did the other $10 trillion come from?
Maybe we should just lop 15% off the market ($4 trillion) and give it back to the FED. Wouldnt that make everyone happy then?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Does anyone think that maybe the nasdaq got back to 5000 based on company earnings?
Not just fed policy and 'mania' ?
Hmmmmm. If my company decided to buy some assets, and took out loans to do it, my balance sheet would look like this:
Assets - $1,000,000
Liabilities - $1,000,000
It's pretty easy to see where the money went, and where the liabilities came from.
Since 2008 the Fed's injected over $4 trillion into the banking system.
It's easy to track the increase in national debt. Where do you think the new money's been going? >>
How much money do you think nasdaq companies like aapl, vrtx, bmrn, regn, nflx, pcln, and goog got from the fed?
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i><<Where do you think the new money's been going?>>
To investors?
You tell me. Gee, I thought it was going to banks, to lend to companies, to stimulate the economy. Not to assets. I thought companies were supposed to be making more money because they have become more efficient, more productive, economies of scale, product innovation............
Now you tell me it's just been going into stock prices, to investors?
Isn't that what "expanding the balance sheet" is all about anyhow?
I guess we'll see what happens without a full punchbowl. Stay tuned. >>
I guess by asking, "investors?" I was asking, not telling.
And I guess by "investors" I broadly meant companies that "invest" in plant, equipment, and employees, and otherwise building their business into hopefully a success, with the characteristics you mention. As well as to the "investors" who buy stock and thus participate in this growth of science and industry. "Assets" can take many forms, including physical, business, and human resource assets,
not necessarily "just" to stock market investors (who risk their capital), but instead, "also" Tothem
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>... And there it is, Nasdaq 5000 >>
closed at: NASDAQ .. 5,007
and Gold barely above $1,200 ... down approx 10% since 10/13......
<< <i>... And there it is, Nasdaq 5000 >>
5,008.10 Up 44.57(0.90%)
Forty more to go for the record.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
includes no financial companies. It is 55+% technology. It includes non-US companies.
The best benchmark for US equities is the S&P 500. That index has blown way
past all of its previous highs.
But if you want a truer picture of the us stock market use the Wilshire 5000.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
start the graph in 2010, 2005, 1995, or 1990. And also would be very interesting to add specific stocks, as well as the other asset classes.
hell, start it in 1980
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Also, looks like the NAZ was a pretty good buy in 2009, certainly much better than other assets.
And when one considers the ABSOLUTELY RIDICULOUS valuations given to the NAZ in 2000, and compares with valuations today, it has been quite a remarkable recovery.
Of greater interest would be that in 2000 the NAZ was only above 5000 for a few hours. Virtually no one owns it there. A more realistic "high" would be the few weeks of trading around the 4600 level. One should also use this approach in determining the high of silver in 2011 which really is closer to the 44-45 area.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>15 years huh?
start the graph in 2010, 2005, 1995, or 1990. And also would be very interesting to add specific stocks, as well as the other asset classes.
hell, start it in 1980
I just plucked that chart from the interwebzzzz as is . I looked around for something where I could make my own and do gold or something else versus the NASDAQ over the same span adjusted for CPI but I can't come up with anything.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear