Why are coins so undervalued!
Hockeyboy66
Posts: 15
So here it goes I am going to rant a bit. I feel that coin prices are so incredibly under valued. I think that with the extreme scrutiny used by the reputable grading companies to find coins that have never been cleaned or damaged in anyway coupled by two periods in our history of extreme amounts of coins melted down for silver value. This period currently and when the Hunt Brothers caused the market to go crazy in the 80s. I think the Red book and others does not take enough of this into account when setting the price index. I think there should be a way to estimate how many coins have survived regardless of mintage and should impact pricing.
Another thing that drives me crazy for example is why a 1901 Morgan MS 63 $14K and a 1894 MS 63 $5,700.00 when the 1894 had far less minted and they were both business strikes. The pricing often makes no sense.
Another thing that drives me crazy for example is why a 1901 Morgan MS 63 $14K and a 1894 MS 63 $5,700.00 when the 1894 had far less minted and they were both business strikes. The pricing often makes no sense.
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I here ya.
Overvalued when buying.....Undervalued when selling.
"If I say something in the woods and my wife isn't there to hear it.....am I still wrong?"
My Washington Quarter Registry set...in progress
<< <i>I think there should be a way to estimate how many coins have survived regardless of mintage and should impact pricing. Another thing that drives me crazy for example is why a 1901 Morgan MS 63 $14K and a 1894 MS 63 $5,700.00 when the 1894 had far less minted and they were both business strikes. The pricing often makes no sense. >>
Welcome!
Cointfacts offered by PCGS does indeed estimate how many coins survived. It's free to look a cople of times then you got to pay. Auction records are a good source of market prices too. This is included with Coinfacts too.
This is their explanation of their rarity scale:
"The PCGS CoinFacts Rarity Scale™ is a tool that can be used to assess the relative rarity of all United States coins. The scale runs from 1.0 to 10.0. The coin issues that have the highest possible rarity, i.e. only one surviving specimen known to exist, are assigned the rarity of 10.0, expressed as "CFR 10.0." Any coin for which the estimated number of survivors exceeds one million specimens is assigned the rarity of 1.0, expressed as "CFR 1.0."
The PCGS CoinFacts Rarity Scale™ can be used to compare overall rarity of a coin in all grades or rarity in certain grades. For example, for many coins listed in the PCGS Rare Coin Market Report™ the rarity estimate is given for all surviving specimens in all grades ("All"), all surviving specimens that grade 60 or better ("60ob"), and all surviving specimens grade 65 or better ("65ob").
The figures for the survival estimates from which the PCGS CoinFacts Rarity Scale™ ratings are derived represent the consensus opinion of the PCGS CoinFacts Board of Experts. PCGS CoinFacts maintains an internal data base of survival estimates for all United States coins. Members of the PCGS CoinFacts Board of Experts (which include many of the top rare coin experts of all-time) list their estimates of survival rates in this data base. The figures used in the PCGS Rare Coin Market Report represent the average of the experts’ opinions. Note that the "survival rating for every U.S. coin" is an ongoing project which has just been recently started. There are a few coins in this initial issue of the PCGS Rare Coin Market Report that already have survival ratings. More will be added in each new issue as the experts continue their work, and rarity ratings may even change as experts compare notes and make adjustments.
Have fun reviewing the experts’ ratings for your favorite coins!"
btw...I am not a paid or unpaid spoksman.
My point is merely that I feel like we are all lemmings in the fact that everyone buys or sells based on the Red book or online price guides unless it's an ultra rare coin that sells at Stack's or Heritage for stupid money. Then the price guides make note of that.
<< <i>The market will tell you what a coin is really worth, that's the best price guide.
My point is merely that I feel like we are all lemmings in the fact that everyone buys or sells based on the Red book or online price guides unless it's an ultra rare coin that sells at Stack's or Heritage for stupid money. Then the price guides make note of that. >>
Good point. Almost everyone I see on the floor of a show has some form of guide in their hand or on an electronic device and they use them to make buying and selling decisions. Therefore, the price guides are important because they give guidance on what the market is doing (In theory). My beef is when a guide does not change for years for certain coins while I witness a shift in market prices.
<< <i>In a nutshell, you should know that the original mintage records are useful, but only as a start/part of the story.
The mintage is meaningless. It's the survival rate that matters. Look at the 1927-D Saints as an extreme example---virtually the entire mintage of 180,000 was melted with only about a dozen that survived.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Good point. Almost everyone I see on the floor of a show has some form of guide in their hand or on an electronic device and they use them to make buying and selling decisions. Therefore, the price guides are important because they give guidance on what the market is doing (In theory). My beef is when a guide does not change for years for certain coins while I witness a shift in market prices.
That definitely happened recently when the 2013 Red book came out prices dropped lower that 2011 when I feel the coin market has been stronger than ever.
Regarding price guides: they tend to be more accurate where generics are concerned. For scarcer/rare coins, it's smart to do some real homework.
Furthermore, the values listed tend to be for average examples for a given grade. If you want a really nice specimen, be prepared to pay up.
One last comment: do not place a huge amount of faith in PCGS/NGC population reports. Many coins (especially MS coins) are repeatedly cracked out and resubmitted in attempts to get higher grades. Some pops are badly skewed because of this.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
<< <i>Honestly, I don't give a crap about price guides. >>
I need price guides for the coins I buy. Say inexpensive.
By price guides I mean all resources.
Only once did I toss away the guides and it was for a Proof IHC.
"If I say something in the woods and my wife isn't there to hear it.....am I still wrong?"
My Washington Quarter Registry set...in progress
<< <i>Do most of you guys by your coins graded or do you take the chance with Raw? >>
Both - it all depends on the coin and the price for me.
<< <i>
Another thing that drives me crazy for example is why a 1901 Morgan MS 63 $14K and a 1894 MS 63 $5,700.00 when the 1894 had far less minted and they were both business strikes. The pricing often makes no sense. >>
The 1901 is notorious for being poorly struck and as such is something of a condition rarity. The 1894 OTOH even tough it was of smaller mintage/struckage had a higher survival rate in mint state and the coins were/are nicer.
Regarding price guides: they tend to be more accurate where generics are concerned. For scarcer/rare coins, it's smart to do some real homework.
Furthermore, the values listed tend to be for average examples for a given grade. If you want a really nice specimen, be prepared to pay up.
One last comment: do not place a huge amount of faith in PCGS/NGC population reports. Many coins (especially MS coins) are repeatedly cracked out and resubmitted in attempts to get higher grades. Some pops are badly skewed because of this.
I was merely using them as an example. I actually use http://www.numismedia.com/fmv/prices/mordlr/pricesfull.shtml As they use a lot of statistical data and abstract statistical modeling in formulating their numbers. And the pricing changes daily as per trends and other info. But let's face no one has the real answer and the system that determines value is very flawed. And sure coins are worth what the market will bear but no one is going to be stupid and over pay for average coins. If that was the case we would all be coin dealers.
<< <i>Do most of you guys by your coins graded or do you take the chance with Raw? >>
I don't discriminate against plastic.............
I let someone else send coins in for grading, but I have no problem buying and selling coins already graded.
Coin Club Benefit auctions ..... View the Lots
Coins are worth what a buyer and seller can make a deal at.
With all the alternative entertainment, fewer coin collectors are
coming into the marketplace, that is a factor too.
When I was a youngster, everyone collected stamps and coins at
some time.
<< <i>Do most of you guys by your coins graded or do you take the chance with Raw? >>
I buy both slabbed and raw. And I routinely remove graded coins (mostly large cents and coins for a Dansco 7070 album) from their slabs.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
<< <i>US coins have a large, mature and orderly market. They are not undervalued. >>
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
amount to more than about 12% of the total number of silver US coins around. Most of these were
super common date like 1964 quarters.
The Fed got nearly so many between mid-'68 and mid-'69 when they removed the silver still in circ-
ulation. Even more have been melted since 2008 when silver went up again. But even in aggregate
these melts have had little effect on scarce dates and no effect on the availability of common dates.
There should be a few dates that are less common than believed because most examples of low min-
tages were worn and unprotected by price premiums.
Once a coin goes out of circulation the attrrition becomes very very low except to the degree they are
melted for precious metals. Most US silver coins ever made are still coins (this does apply to silver
dollars).
1. Survivng population
2. Demand
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
<< <i>US coins have a large, mature and orderly market. They are not undervalued. >>
Coins made after 1964 virtually aren't collected. If they were the price guides would
accurately reflect relative availability but they do not come even close. Rare coins can
list for pennies and common coins can list for $10.
The price guides are in sync with the grading standards defined by the grading services. As you gain experience, you will likely (and should) fall in line with those same standards.
FWIW, I'd suggest taking the grading classes at the ANA Summer Seminar. If you're lucky, you might even score a scholarship.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
The main reason that coins are as cheap as they are is that we don't have enough money.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
most 1901 Morgans that are seen today were put into circulation and the rest melted. Not many unc examples exist and those that do are not high quality examples. The same can be said about the 1894, but more high quality examples exist.
Here is coin facts info on 1894... Hoard coins: Several 1,000-coin bags of Uncirculated 1894 dollars were released in the 1950s and early 1960s.
1901 coin facts info...
Mint State grades: While specimens remain in MS-60 to 62 grades to the extent of an estimated 750 to 1,500 pieces, at higher levels the 1901 dollar is a major rarity. Only about 100 to 200 MS-63 coins are known, just 10 to 20 in MS-64, and, possibly, only 2 to 4 in MS-65.
there is literally over 1,000 MS Examples of 1894 Morgans Graded by PCGS alone.
Member, Society of Silver Dollar Collectors.
Looking for PCGS AU58+ 1901-P, 1896-O, & 1894-O
You'll find a lot of good advice and wisdom here. Take advantage. But listen carefully.
Lance.
<< <i>My beef is when a guide does not change for years for certain coins while I witness a shift in market prices.
That definitely happened recently when the 2013 Red book came out prices dropped lower that 2011 when I feel the coin market has been stronger than ever. >>
I don't know any serious collector or knowledgeable dealer who uses the Redbook for pricing information.
Coin Rarities Online
<< <i>
<< <i>My beef is when a guide does not change for years for certain coins while I witness a shift in market prices.
That definitely happened recently when the 2013 Red book came out prices dropped lower that 2011 when I feel the coin market has been stronger than ever. >>
I don't know any serious collector or knowledgeable dealer who uses the Redbook for pricing information. >>
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
<< <i>Does everyone feel that grading is consistent or a little too subjective? I feel it's all over the place as some coins that I get back from NGC that will have an MS 61 look better than an MS 63 from PCGS and Vice Versa. And some times I'll see a Silver dollar from the Redfield collection or Binion and it has a grade higher than I similar coin that I have and it's clearly not as good. >>
Look's like you like to skate on thin ice my kind of guy, I would what to post this after you have been here a bit.
Hoard the keys.
Sugar magnolia blossoms blooming, heads all empty and I don't care ...
<< <i>
<< <i>US coins have a large, mature and orderly market. They are not undervalued. >>
Coins made after 1964 virtually aren't collected. If they were the price guides would
accurately reflect relative availability but they do not come even close. Rare coins can
list for pennies and common coins can list for $10. >>
The same thing is true for many foreign coins. They are very hard to find but no one cares. As a result the prices don't adjust upward.
Collectors need to be aware that supply and DEMAND is what dictates coin prices, not just supply.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>US coins have a large, mature and orderly market. They are not undervalued. >>
Coins made after 1964 virtually aren't collected. If they were the price guides would
accurately reflect relative availability but they do not come even close. Rare coins can
list for pennies and common coins can list for $10. >>
The same thing is true for many foreign coins. They are very hard to find but no one cares. As a result the prices don't adjust upward.
Collectors need to be aware that supply and DEMAND is what dictates coin prices, not just supply. >>
Yes. Foreign coins of all ages can be very rare and it's not even generally known
because demand for them can be thin and attrition huge. Look at some of the Costa
Rican silver of the 19th century. There are a handful of collectors and prices would be
far different if they were collected by more people.
As you well know this same thing exists in tokens and medals. Highly desirable tokens
with populations of fewer than 10 can sell for a few dollars (if that). Unless there are a
few collectors who want something we'll never know if it's common or rare.
The thing is people really don't have the money they used to for coins. In addition, many market insiders seeing the same anemic bids in the sheets are not buying anything unless its a steal or below bid. I think too a lot of bay bidders have the mentality that if something has no bids on it and another item has 15 bids they want to get in the bid war on the item that has 15 bids because somebody started it cheap. When I see the item with the 15 bids go for well over retail, I know then the seller most likely had some shill bidders in the woodwork somewhere.
One could argue that if they were truly "highly desirable" then A. more people would want them and B. they would be worth more. Maybe you define "highly desirable" differently from most, do you mean highly desirable to you? Because most define it as highly desirable to the general public.
And then there's "populations", do you mean, "known populations"? because as you say, Unless there are a few collectors who want something we'll never know if it's common or rare. there could be a lot of them "out there", or a few, but nobody cares. Why should they start caring?
I've got a "very rare and desirable" model 23 flugerbocker marberstall, but I can't find a buyer at any price
Welcome to the board Hockeyboy66, thanks for the softball question, we're all having a lot of fun with it
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
or do we mean that they don't cost as much as they used to cost, or someday WILL cost?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Bottom line is if you expect to be able to be a savvy buyer you have to use your brain.
Latin American Collection
<< <i>I don't use the Red Book ? Blue book exclusively but I find it amusing how everyone dis's the Red book when if you look at nearly any retail coin site auction etc.you will see the reality is there prices are not far off and those guys have more influence on coin pricing than any of us on this site do. >>
I'm not sure who you think "those guys" are, but Redbook pricing is compiled by a long list of dealers and industry experts, many of whom do post on this site.
And while they are knowledgeable and trying to be accurate, their input is given months and months before publication, so by the time the new edition hits the shelves it cannot reflect the most recent market trends and auction results in the way that the electronic guides do.
In any case, I'm not sure what exactly your argument is, as you seem to be on both sides of this one.
Coin Rarities Online
Overvalued...sell.
That is how people make money on things. (If they are right)
And while they are knowledgeable and trying to be accurate, their input is given months and months before publication, so by the time the new edition hits the shelves it cannot reflect the most recent market trends and auction results in the way that the electronic guides do.
In any case, I'm not sure what exactly your argument is, as you seem to be on both sides of this one.
John,
I think you are making my point. Look back at how many posts start with I don't anyone who uses the Red book insinuating that the Red book is some how inaccurate and you are backing up my point saying that the info is derived from many sources including some experts on this site that's is all.
Rob
Successful Trades with: Coincast, MICHAELDIXON
Successful Purchases from: Manorcourtman, Meltdown
One cent sold for 10 million dollars. Imagine the nut jobs all the way up to that point.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5