I decided to offer my #5 pick in the National Treasures HK hit draft for sale, and have reached an agreement at my price. I know I'm passing up the chance for a top rookie patch auto, a HOFer auto relic (quite possibly a great patch or signature on stick), a signed embedded Cup replica card, the lot of base and parallels (with a bunch of printing plates), or something else really nice, but I can turn right around and spend the money on lots of other great stuff that fits my major collecting interests.
I've made my first pick in the Topps Chrome BB player draft. I got Prince Fielder, who has 3 different inserts in the set to go along with the base card. I have 5 more late picks coming.
I made a slight error on describing my Seferian-Jenkins hits from 2014 Bowman FB - it's one blue /499 and one blue foil /499.
I didn't describe how bad the 2013 Bowman BB break was overall. Not only was collation bad, but it was weak autos overall - no Buxton, Correa, Giolito, Edwards, Meyer, Herrera, Machado, etc. There was only 1 orange and 1 gold auto (though there was a purple Eddie Butler auto), and 1 orange refractor (an Alex Meyer). None of the red or purple ice hits were very big either.
Thanks for sharing, I'm in that same 5 case break of Topps Chrome also and selected a couple rookie auto players. I also have the vet in Big Papi. It's going to be one of those fun, let's see what happens breaks. I noticed nordy started a 10 case break that I'm still considering. As for basketball, it's nuts that they are actually up to 50 cases of National Treasures broken by one group breaker alone. I've passed on all those and saving for Flawless right now.
I got a great price a couple weeks ago on a 2-team combo in a case of 2013 Topps Chrome FB (direct from the breaker). The break happened a few days ago, when it filled. I'm very happy - Each team got me an auto (one is a refractor /150 and the other was a redemption for a base that is probably /600), 6 inserts, and 4 total refractors (one team had 2 color and 2 regular, and the other team had 4 regular).
The collation was very odd - color refractors were clumped by player and team (a couple teams had 6 or 7 color, including one with 2 sepia /99 rookies, and several players had 2 or 3 different refractors), and there were 2 patch autos - and both were from the same team. That team also had a top tier pink auto (/75).
I finished making my picks in the Chrome BB player draft - Zack Greinke, Jered Weaver, Kenley Jansen, Gio Gonzalez, and Jordan Zimmermann. There are a bunch of players on the checklist who didn't get drafted at all, so anything from them will be randomed off after the break. I have a decent shot of landing an extra player that way.
The picture is my better hits from the recent 2014 Bowman BB player random: Lucky Redemption card (Kris Bryant refractor auto), Severino Gonzalez Bowman Black auto /25, blue refractors /250 of Akeel Morris and Steven Ramos, black refractor /99 of Ryon Healy, and green refractor /75 of Armando Rivero (I bought the Rivero spot after the break happened). Not pictured are 2 refractors /500 of Steven Ramos and a refractor /500 of Akeel Morris (or the 45-50ish base cards of each player).
The National Treasures hockey hit draft break where I sold my spot happened. Considering the likely cards available at that spot (the hits have not been drafted yet, but they include a Flawless diamond card /5, a 24-jersey tri-part booklet, a 1/1 rookie patch auto printing plate, auto jerseys /25 and /50 of top rookies, rookie patch auto /99 of a high-ranked rookie, and rookie patch auto /44 of a high-ranked rookie with 3 letters of the team name being much of the patch), I think the buyer will be reasonably happy, and I'm happy, because with 1 possible exception (and I don't think it lasts to pick 5), these are not cards I'd ever buy for that price even if that's the going market price.
The National Treasures hockey case break where I bought a team also happened. I got a nice auto of a current star, won a random for a dual auto (of players who were traded for each other), and lost a random for an 8-piece jersey booklet card where I had 1 spot. I'm happy with the results.
I think I will not go too heavily into this set for breaks. Ebay prices have been trending higher for teams, and it's a fairly high-risk break to begin with. Figure about 48 total cards in the average case (with at least 8 being printing plates from older products) and a lot of randoms on big hits (especially booklets) and a more evenly spread out checklist than most recent Panini products, and you're looking at around 2-3 cards expected for even the best teams.
I didn't get an undrafted player from the Topps Chrome player draft break, and it appears I got just 1 #'d refractor overall from my 6 players. Top autos seem to be SPed there.
The random happened on the Topps Chrome BB 10-case player draft break on Blowout where I had 1 spot. I got #136 out of 230. Not a great result, but buying a spot is necessary to be able to buy other spots after the random. I've bought 17 other player spots so far, mostly at the very end of the draft (the last 7 spots get you 2 players each in a snake draft fashion). Basically, I'm hoping for low #d refractors (red or atomic, especially) from as many of the spots as possible, with a few percent chance of a superfractor.
I bought 3 decent to strong teams in a 5-box ebay break of 2013-14 Ultimate Collection hockey. One team got a base #/499, another got a very good rookie #/499, and the third got a rookie auto /299 and a 2-player, 2 patches per player low numbered quad rookie relic (and lost a 3-way random for a 3-player, 2 swatches per player rookie relic card). I essentially got the contents of a box for a quarter of the box price. I'm very happy with the results, though I don't think this set provides very good value.
I'm up to 34 player spots in the Topps Chrome break, essentially all in the 2nd half of the break. The draft is ongoing, and I haven't come up to pick yet. I will be ending up with a huge quantity of base cards. But the value is in the refractors and better.
I have also reserved a spot in a 20-hobby case Bowman Chrome baseball break.
Meanwhile, I bought 14 teams in a 3-hobby box ebay break of 2014-15 Upper Deck MVP hockey yesterday, and 8 more in another break today (from the same breaker), plus 1 decent team in a 3-box 2014 Finest baseball ebay break from him today. I paid unbelievably low prices for most of the teams.
The Finest break produced nothing special for me - just 1 refractor and some base, but I got a great price on the team, and they have a good quantity of players.
Yesterday's MVP break was amazing. Each box is supposed to have 1 relic, auto, or Super Script parallel (#/25). There are also Silver Script parallels (1 per pack), 100 shortprints (1 per pack), Colors and Contours inserts (several per box, comprising the full checklist, with several different scarcity levels), and other inserts. I got quite a number of each. All 3 boxes had Super Scripts, and I got 2 of the 3. I lost out on a 8-way random for a divisional rookie redemption for which I had 4 of the 8 spots. I estimate that there are about 200 of each divisional rookie redemption (each one is redeemable for 9 cards), so that hurts. The break had 2 extra hits - a relic and an auto. The relic wasn't one of my teams. But, I got the auto, and it was a monster hit - a dual auto! There are 5 dual autos in the set, and one can be found in every 2612 hobby packs. I estimate around 25 of each dual auto were made. It is literally probably worth at least what I paid for the entire break.
Today's MVP break was disappointing, though I still did very well for what I paid. There were no Super Scripts or relics, and 1 auto (not one of my teams). The extra hits in the first break essentially came out of the boxes in this one (both groups were from the same case). I got quite a few shortprints, inserts, and Silver Scripts though.
At what I was paying for teams, the base cards alone were more than worth it. Everything else was gravy.
Bought 4 teams in a 5-box ebay break of 2013 Limited football, including the top 3 teams by hits and another strong team. I was not pleased with the fact the breaker took the cards offscreen after opening the packs - it would be very easy to pull a switch on a highly valuable card that way. I don't think he did in this break, as somebody got a 1/1 rookie auto shield (and of a decent rookie too). The strongest team got shut out, and another very strong team got me only 1 base card /399, but the 3rd really strong team got me a base card /399, a spotlight parallel /49, and 2 rookie jumbo relics (I believe both are /299), while the other team got a rookie auto /299 and a rookie auto jumbo relic /99. I essentially got a box for $40, which is a good deal less than what they sell for, but it wasn't a very good break overall, and I'm certainly not pleased with the breaker's way of handling the break.
I ended up with 40 total players in the 10-case Topps Chrome break. Through my not making something clear enough in a list I sent out for drafting, I didn't get Carlos Gonzalez, who has 3 different inserts, with my 2nd pick, but had Clay Buchholz taken for me, who has no inserts but a variation possibility. It's actually working out OK for me, as will be explained shortly. I ended up getting a lot more players who had inserts available than I thought I would. My 40 players are: Pedro Alvarez, Elvis Andrus, Homer Bailey, Carlos Beltran, Adrian Beltre, Clay Buchholz, Kole Calhoun, Andrew Cashner, Shin Soo Choo, Tony Cingrani, Alex Cobb, Prince Fielder, Dexter Fowler, Avisail Garcia, Brett Gardner, Carlos Gomez, Gio Gonzalez, Zack Greinke, Cole Hamels, Aaron Hill, Desmond Jennings, Ian Kinsler, Corey Kluber, Cliff Lee, Jon Lester, Francisco Liriano, Brandon Moss, Mike Napoli, Joe Nathan, Martin Prado, Jose Reyes, CC Sabathia, Danny Salazar, James Shields, Mark Trumbo, Chase Utley, Jered Weaver, Jayson Werth, Jordan Zimmermann, and Ben Zobrist. Through 5 of the 10 cases, I don't have any monster hits yet, but I believe I have 17 blue /199, 8 black /100, 3 sepia /75, and 1 gold /50 refractors, to go with inserts, xfractors, refractors, and a lot of base. Buchholz was the gold, 2 of the blacks, and a blue. Gold refractors are falling about 2 per case, with reds about 1 per case (and only 1 atomic /10 overall). Only 1 printing plate has been hit so far. Many of the top autos are seriously shortprinted. This is not a great product overall for value.
The rest of the 10 cases of Topps Chrome were broken. I had a few big hits in them, including a printing plate, a red refractor /25, and an atomic refractor /10. No superfractors at all in the break - but based on print runs, there was only about a 40% chance of hitting one.
I bought a good team in another 8-box (case) break of 2013-14 Dominion hockey direct from the seller. I hit a redemption for a rookie patch auto (that's live already) and an auto prime patch (from the Peerless Patches insert set) which looks great - part of the team name is recognizable. I'm very happy with the results.
I bought 2 teams (one decent, and the other fairly weak in overall hit quantity, but with really good hits when it does hit) in a 2-box ebay break of 2013-14 Rookie Anthology hockey. I got 3 base cards between the teams. Panini also has some explaining to do, as one of the boxes was shorted a pack. A lot of the autographs in this set aren't numbered, which makes judging team value difficult. Not a good break for me, but only about $14 total, so not disastrous.
I actually had 41 picks in that Topps Chrome player draft. I forgot Anibal Sanchez.
I bought a good team in another 8-box break of 2013-14 Dominion hockey (direct from the seller). Hit a quad jersey card (4 players, #/50) and a redemption for a rookie patch auto /299. I'm happy with the result. It may be the last break that seller does on Dominion - it was a fairly weak case overall, and it took 3 days to fill the break (they generally expect to fill in 1 day).
Meanwhile, I'm in on Blowout's 50-case player auction for 2014 Bowman Chrome baseball, which ends next week, and I've also reserved a spot in a 20-case player draft of Bowman Chrome,which is still filling up.
The 50-case break auction went well for me. I bought quite a few nonautograph player slots cheaply (11 at the opening bid) as well as 3 team base lots (veterans and rookies, but not prospects). I'm actually trying to flip as many of them as I can for reasonable profits. 2 sold before the break, and sale has been agreed to on another. Through 18 cases, I have a couple very big hits - Johnny Field /10 refractor (not sure what the name of this type is) and Aaron Brooks /15 refractor (I believe this is the shimmer refractor). The Bobby Wahl spot, which I sold, has also hit a /15 refractor, so the guy who bought the slot should be very happy. I've hit a lot of lesser color refractors so far too, as well as intentional error variations on Corey Knebel (name on card is Evel Knebel) and Michael Ohlman (name on card is Michael Ohlboy). I'm trying to flip on this break because I'd rather get some quick profits that I can plow right back into buying singles I like than take up more space with all the massive lots of base prospects (maybe 150 per player) while either working on building lots of rainbows or trying to sell singles of refractors. Flipping the slots on Blowoutcards's forum already, before the break is over, also eliminates dealing with shipping for me, and if the buyer has other lots they have purchased in the auction, they're paying a fairly small amount for postage.
Meanwhile, I totally missed out on an 8-set team break of 2013 Bowman Chrome Mini on ebay, and teams went really cheaply in it. Plus, the break hit an xfractor set (all the base cards are instead xfractors #/100). I had stopped searching for these, as there hadn't been any breaks of it in months.
I've flipped a couple more players in the 50-case Bowman Chrome auction, and may be able to sell a couple others. One of the guys I sold, Ryan McNeil, hit 2 orange refractors #/25, so that buyer should be quite happy. I bought 4 late spots postrandom in the 20-hobby case 2014 Bowman Chrome BB player draft, in addition to the one I had purchased initially. The random was not kind to me - I got #226 of 269. The 4 other spots I bought were even later picks. The last of the veteran and rookie base lots (a case worth) went at #222. I would have taken it if it were still available. I got Chad Pinder at that spot. With my later picks, I got Dylan Unsworth (bought him in the 50-case auction, and then flipped him), Bobby Wahl (same), Jonathan Reynoso, and Breyvic Valera. I was out that evening after my Pinder pick, and sent in a list. I wasn't as careful as I should have been in making the list. Reynoso should have been a lot lower than he was on my list - I'm not at all high on him as a prospect. Valera had the potential of an intentional error, which is a great hit if you get one, but I'm not thrilled with that slot either. I don't know about refractors, blue or black waves, or any intentional errors, but Unsworth got me 4 colored refractors, and the other 4 guys got me none. Wahl and Pinder are at least guys I'm very high on (Unsworth too). Not a great break, but the 4 slots I purchased were cheap enough. The break was great for color autos, but the vast majority of the autos were damaged (bottom back damage, usually very noticeable). Topps QC needs to do a much better job.
I also got on the backup list, and then bought in when someone didn't pay for their slot, for a full case each break on Blowoutcards of 2012-13 Timeless Treasures BK and 2012-13 Limited BK. These products have tanked since release (more than 60% off MSRP), but you can still get some great cards in them. It's a random team break. I did very well in the random - I got the Celtics, who are a strong team in both hit quantity and quality in both sets. I am looking forward to getting some HOFer autos (Bill Russell or Larry Bird would be exceptionally nice). That break happens Monday night.
The Limited and Timeless Treasures break was a disaster for me. Despite the Celtics being one of the strongest teams in both products, all I got was 2 base cards from Limited, 2 base cards from Timeless Treasures (both Garnett), and one of the worst rookie autos around, Kris Joseph /499 from Timeless Treasures. Limited was very strong, and TT had some really nice cards (including a Kyrie Irving rookie auto), but I was just unlucky.
I also bought in on an OK team from 2014 Topps Triple Threads baseball in a case (9-box) break (direct from the breaker). It was a very strong case overall, including auto relics of Vlad Guerrero, Boggs, Rice (3/3), and Hank Aaron, plus a triple All-Star patch, but all I got was a base card and a parallel /325.
I'm still going through the boxes and boxes from my several large breaks on blowoutcards. I have also reserved a spot in a forthcoming player draft 10-case break of Topps Chrome football.
I ended up with, on average, about 3 refractors /500 and 4 color refractors per player I bought in the 50-case Bowman Chrome auction - and there were close to 250 base cards per prospect.
I did find out that the guy who bought the Bobby Wahl spot from me in the 50-caseauction got a carbon fiber refractor /10 and shimmer refractor /15, plus bubbles /99, purple /150, and blue /250 refractors.
I did find out that the guy who bought the Bobby Wahl spot from me in the 50-caseauction got a carbon fiber refractor /10 and shimmer refractor /15, plus bubbles /99, purple /150, and blue /250 refractors.
I still haven't gone through my 2 huge boxes of Topps Chrome. Meanwhile, I bought a team in a case break of 2012-13 Limited basketball on Blowoutcards. About $22 - it's one of those products that has really tumbled on the market. Random team assignment, and I got the Pistons. I was pleased - good # of hits, strong HOFer auto/relic possibilities, plus a top rookie (Drummond). Bad break for me. All I got was a base card. I think I was one of two hitless teams, and the other was the Pelicans. In that product, if you get the Pelicans, you are very happy, because you can get an Anthony Davis rookie auto. But the only thing guaranteed in that break is that the Lakers will get a load of Kobe Anthology cards. Meanwhile, Topps Chrome FB breaks are happening - in the filling and drafting stage now, as hobby product isn"r live yet, and Bowman Draft BB is starting to fill breaks. I'm in on a bunch of those on Blowout. 2 different Chrome FB 5-case breaks have reached the drafting stage. I have pick 6 in one and pick 21 in the other. By random draft spot luck, Im a little bit ahead of average. Both are team drafts. The break where I have pick 6 has an unusual way of dealing with base cards of veterans - they won't be sorted by team, but everyone will get an equal share. If you're a serious team collector, this is a problem, but if you like building base sets, it's a good thing, because it gives you probably about 2/3 of the vet base. I may sell or trade pick 6, depending on who is gone by that point. It would be a profitable transaction if I do. Pick 21 will almost certainly be kept. I'm also in on the huge (50-case) Chrome FB player auction on Blowout, which closes over the next couple nights. Topps really jacked up the print run on this product and made a huge auto checklist (73 players, with a bunch of guys who didn't make teams), so there may be a lot of really unhappy buyers on it.
In the Topps Chrome auction where I had pick 6, I was not able to deal it. I took the Bengals (debated between them and the Packers for a while). I purchased pick 29 from someone in that break too. The draft is ongoing, and it's ongoing in the other break, where I have pick 21. In a 20-case Bowman Draft player draft (320 slots, with there being insert slots, and auto slots are separate from prospect slots), I had a great random. Pick 16. That's an auto slot of a strong pros. I traded it for pick 38 (which should be a decent auto slot) plus 8 late picks (from #185 to #312). I have also purchased 4 other picks in the 200s, and am expecting to do more dealing.
<< <i>I did find out that the guy who bought the Bobby Wahl spot from me in the 50-caseauction got a carbon fiber refractor /10 and shimmer refractor /15, plus bubbles /99, purple /150, and blue /250 refractors.
The same exact thing happened to me last week. >>
He's absolutely thrilled, but I got my price for it. An instant flip for a nice percentage profit is worthwhile 100 times out of 100 to me for a modern player spot that I'm not deadset on PCing.
I saw your bid list in the 50. We bid on some of the same players.Its almost a crime what some of the vets went for.I got a bit confused on the bid increments and bumped a few incorrectly. Fortunately I won Alex Smith. Itll, be a blast seeing what I get.
I am looking forward to the 100 case Bowman Draft break though.
In the Chrome FB 5-case break where I have the Bengals, I took the Redskins with pick 29. In the other Chrome FB 5-case break, I took the Seahawks. Meanwhile, I have acquired 4 other picks in the Bowman Draft player draft, and am working on getting more (including possibly selling pick 38 or trading down with it). In the 50-case Chrome FB player auction, when it closed Sunday night, I had the Jake Matthews autograph spot, plus rookie spots of Jeff Matthews, Cody Hoffman, Yawin Smallwood, C.J. Fiedorowicz, LaDarius Perkins, Ryan Grant, Will Sutton, and Trent Murphy, and veteran spots of Justin Tuck and Pierre Garcon. The auction would have closed at a big loss, so the break host exercised the option (stated in the original auction announcement) to reopen it Monday night for an hour of further bidding. I had botched my bidding on veteran spots, and a lot of them went way too cheap. I did a better job on Monday. I was outbid on the auto spot right away, and on most of the other spots I had previously been high bidder on as time passed. I didn't time my new bids quite as I wanted, and ended up being beaten out on a number of spots because someone had bid that amount a minute or two before me -or had bid lower than my bid, but where I was less than a bidder increment above them, so my bid didn't count. However, I got 3 rookie spots and 14 veteran spots, and they're fairly high quality. I kept the Jake Matthews spot (at my original bid) and increased my bid to make sure I got the Justin Tuck spot. My other rookies are Greg Robinson and Silas Redd. The other veteran spots I got were Philip Rivers, Andy Dalton, Victor Cruz, Jimmy Graham, Andre Johnson, Montee Ball, C.J. Spiller, Mike Glennon, DeAndre Hopkins, Kendall Wright, Tamba Hali, Geno Smith, and Jordan Cameron. Rivers, Cruz, and Graham have variation card possibilities. I have since sold the Hopkins spot, made an offer to sell the Wright spot, and have put some of the others up for sale.
I had made a mistake in looking at the break checklist, and I wasn't the only one - I didn't win the DeAndre Hopkins spot after all, so selling it was obviously reversed. It worked out OK for the guy who was going to buy it from me - he bought it from the actual winner. I did sell off the Tamba Hali and Montee Ball spots.
Through the first 7 cases of the break, my only major hit is a gold refractor /50 of Spiller. That break will be going on for a while. The break where I had the Bengals and Redskins happened. The Redskins got me a pair of autos - Cody Hoffman and Lache Seastrunk camo /99. The Bengals also got me a pair of autos - AJ McCarron and Darqueze Dennard. McCarron appears to be seriously shortprinted, so that's a very nice hit. They also got me a gold refractor /50 of Vontaze Burfict and a red refractor /25 of McCarron. That break worked out great for me. The break where I have the Seahawks will likely be on Friday.
I won't be getting into more Topps Chrome FB breaks unless they go really cheaply. This set is way overproduced, so base cards and common refractors are in oversupply and tough refractors are hard to come by, and most of the good autos are shortprinted.
I did pick up another spot in the 20-case Bowman Draft break. I'm also going in on the Bowman Draft 100-case player auction that Blowoutcards is running.
I'm adding more spots in the Bowman Draft 20-case break. I also have reserved a spot in a 20-jumbo case Bowman Draft break. That one has filled, and will be paid this week, to be followed by a random. The 5-case break of Chrome where I had the Seahawks wasn't very good for me. No autos, and no really good color, though I did get a Marshawn Lynch variation and a Lynch 1000 Yard Club /99 parallel. A superfractor was hit in the break - of an insert. We're now halfway through the 50-case player auction break. Mike Glennon has been doing very well for me - a gold /50 and a sepia/99, plus 5 other colors of refractor. I believe my players have from 3 to 10 colored refractors each. 3 superfractors have been hit in the break - all of inserts.
I have been following this thread for a while now and I am always interested in your thoughtful analysis of your breaks and your decision making toward the slots you buy. I am not a big modern collector, although I just bought some boxes from DACardworld for my son and I to rip together. I am wondering what you do with the cards you get from the case breaks. Judging by your discussion of what slots you buy, it doesn't seem as though you are necessarily buying cards of players or teams you plan on collecting but rather you are trying to obtain value for your breaking dollar. How do you end up monetizing your breaks? For instance if you end up with 20 Mike Glennon base cards and the various parallels how do you sell them? And do you flip immediately or wait for a prospect to break out? Just curious. Thanks for this thread. Post some scans to update some of your breaks.
I actually haven't been monetizing my breaks. I'm sitting on large quantities of certain player base. I have sold a few things off, but not in any organized fashion - mainly because someone I know was looking for that player or someone who saw my posts here or saw something about the break on another board messaged me.
It's not quite monetizing, but I expect to be trading some cards within the 50-case Chrome break. My Philip Rivers spot has hit 3 photo variation cards. I've put out an indicator that I'm ready to trade variation cards with other people who also hit multiples, and a couple people are ready to trade if they do. As long as it's somebody I don't have, value is equal for me, and there are no transaction costs to the trade if it happens before the cards are packaged for shipment.
I bought 4 players in a 5-case ebay player auction of 2014 Chrome FB - Greg Robinson, Victor Cruz, Jimmy Graham, and Cody Hoffman. Hoffman got me 2 base autos, Robinson got me a #'d refractor, Cruz got me a color refractor, and Graham did great - a #'d refractor, a 1000 yard club insert, and a photo variation card.
In the 50-case break, I believe we're through 37 cases so far. 4 players' autograph slots have nothing at all to show for it - Odell Beckham Jr., David Carr, Mike Evans, and Tre Mason. This isn't a collation issue. There are shortprinted autos that are probably at 20% or less of average auto print run.
I know I'm behind on scans. I should have a bunch going up this week.
The 20-jumbo case Bowman Draft break gave me a good random - spot 66 of 340. I have kept that spot so far (I have a target in mind for the pick) and have acquired 6 other late picks. In the 20-hobby case Bowman Draft break, I took the Rockies Top Prospects group slot at #78 - a number of auto slots and the first card spots of a lot of 1st round picks were still available, but I took the best available IMO of the team TP slots - I get all cards of 5 players (Herrera, McMahon, Story, Tapia, and Dahl). Taking the first licensed card of someone like Michael Gettys or Bradley Zimmer was tempting, but I went with the greater chance of a nice hit (I'm expecting an average of 2 special cards per player). A 1-super jumbo case team draft break of 2014 Bowman Draft has also filled and had its random. I'm in the 2nd of 5 independent cases in the break, and I got #22. It's certainly not a great slot, but there should still be a decent team left. The 50-case Chrome FB break has finished, but I haven't yet seen a full breakdown of the color. I did get a red refractor /25 of Justin Tuck (and one of Kendall Wright, but that spot has an open sale offer - a guy who PCs him missed the final night of bidding with a family medical emergency, and I made him an offer on the spot that is fair IMO). The break hit 2 other superfractors, 1 veteran and 1 rookie auto. The entire break had 1 Odell Beckham auto, and it came in the final case. It also had 1 auto each of Manziel, Carlos Hyde (a pulsar auto /15), and Eric Ebron (a variation auto /75), and no autos at all of Derek Carr, Mike Evans, or Tre Mason (Carr was one half of the break's only dual auto, but that didn't go to the Derek Carr auto slot, but to its own slot.). It is rumored that no base autos were produced of Mason or Hyde, and none have shown up on ebay. Meanwhile, there were 16 autos each for Robert Herron and Cody Hoffman. My guess is that there may be 2000 or more base autos of the most common players. I doubt these can even hold a $1 value. The 100-case Bowman Draft player auction has to go to an extended bidding day to have any chance at happening. It's way short of cost. If things had closed, I would have had several rookie and Top Prospects slots, and had won 1 auto slot, which I had already flipped for a decent profit (that deal has been reversed). And, part of my packages from the Chrome team draft where I had the Bengals and Redskins have arrived - my Bengals hits. I hadn't watched the break, so the inserts and color (other than the McCarron red and Burfict gold) were a surprise - and a good one, including a Jeremy Hill black refractor /299.
I got my initial target in the Bowman 20-case jumbo break - the Pirates Top Prospects lot (7 players, including Meadows and Taillon). I figured I could trade down a few spots, pick up one or more later picks, and still get it, but that fell apart when I had to be out and about, and nothing was working well on my phone (including being unable to view messages).
My 2nd pick came along in the 20-case hobby break. I took Erick Fedde, who was the Nationals' 1st round pick. Despite the Tommy John surgery, I'm very high on him as a prospect. I'm secondguessing myself on that pick to some degree, as lots of team Top Prospects lots were still available. But, I don't think he would have lasted to my next pick.
Things worked out fine for me in the super jumbo case team draft. The Pirates were still available to me at pick 22. They have 3 players with autos (average to above average quantity), and a lot of players overall (14, most of any team in the set).
The huge 100-case player auction closed. I could have bid on and gotten a lot more slots, but most were of lesser prospects and roughly $40 apiece does start adding up quickly. I got 4 slots - Jake Luplow (draft pick), and Ben Lively, Devon Travis, and James Ramsey (all 3 are Top Prospects). Jake Luplow is actually a checklist error - it's Jake Reed (Twins reliever prospect). I'm very high on him - he was thoroughly dominant in his first season. But, I traded the rights to that spot away for 3 late picks in the 20-case jumbo draft. That was a great profit for me. I ended up bidding myself up $5 on Ramsey, but I'm quite high on him as a player and didn't want to risk someone else snatching him up without having to jump the bid substantially. Travis was won at the same high bid I had from 2 nights ago, and Lively was a new bid for me. Everyone I had previously been the high bidder on and lost went above what I was willing to spend on them.
As it turns out, I didn't sell Kendall Wright in the Chrome FB auction after all. The potential buyer picked up what he needed elsewhere. I did buy another spot post-break: Kadeem Carey, who had no big hits. The Bowman Draft drafts both finished. In the jumbo cases break, I ended up with 15 spots, and a total of 27 players, because I took 4 team Top Prospects lots. I have Pirates, Diamondbacks, Indians, and Mariners TPs, plus Chase Vallot, Trey Supak, Justin Twine, Matt Railey, Michael Cederoth, Jake Cosart, Jace Fry, Wyatt Strahan, Austin Gomber, John Curtiss, and Nick Torres. In the hobby cases break, I ended up with 6 team TP lots - Rockies, 4 of the Astros (Appel, McCullers, Velasquez, and Hader), White Sox, Mariners, Braves, and Padres, 4 cases worth of inserts, and 21 draft picks - Erick Fedde, Supak, Garrett Fulenchek, Zech Lemond, Spencer Turnbull, Railey, Brett Graves, Fry, Strahan, Cederoth, John Richy, Aaron Brown, Gavin LaValley, Josh Morgan, Gomber, Curtiss, Michael Mader, Taylor Gushue, Torres, Chris Oliver, and Chris Sadberry. That's 39 players in total. Fedde was a mistake, unless I hit something great of him. I should have taken a TP lot at that point, most likely Reds, but possibly Royals or the other 4 Astros. Now that turns out ice parallels are twice as common as last year (and much more common on the rare ones), a case of ice parallels would also have been an OK pick at that point. I was right not to take paper parallels - they essentially eliminated a color this year. I had a few people inquire about buying some players off me, but they were guys I'd rather prospect on than flip. The more effort I put into player selection, the less interest I have in flipping. If I just throw down blanket opening bids in an auction on dozens of people who have no bid, I don't feel much of a stake in the players if I win several.
I bought 4 players in a 25-case (20 hobby and 5 jumbo) ebay player auction of 2014 Bowman Draft - Trace Loehr, Dylan Davis, Brett Graves, and Jace Fry. 11 of the cases have been broken, and I've viewed 9 of the recaps so far. I believe I have a gold /50, 2 greens (/150?), and a blue refractor so far among my players. Not bad, and I got all of them fairly cheaply. A 10-super-jumbo-case player auction for 2014 Bowman Draft ended on Blowoutcards, and I ended up with a whole bunch of player spots, including some of the bigger rookies and an auto spot. I've been busy selling off the rights to a lot of them, and I'm offering others up. I'm not trying to make a big profit on most of them, but even at a couple dollars apiece (I'm offering some at the next bid increment, which is $2 on bids under $20), it adds up. My arbitrage profits will just get plowed back into other card purchases anyway. My draft of the Pirates in a super jumbo case paid off. I got a gold refractor, a rookie (1st round pick) printing plate, and a refractor auto and gold auto /50 (both autos were of the same player). Through 5 cases of the 100-case break, I have 1 hit that made the case highlight photos, but it's a printing plate. Most people don't like plates much, but I do. Through 3 cases of the 20-hobby case break, I'm really kicking myself for taking Fedde at 135. The Reds, with 5 TP players, were still available, and they have already hit a black /35 and a gold /50 refractor. But, I have some nice hits in the break so far, including a silver wave /25. That break will take a few day break before finishing.
I bought a spot in a team draft of a case of 2012-13 Panini Certified hockey. Got pick 16 (of 30) in the random. Not great, but not awful either. My spot in a 10-hobby case true player random (you get paper, ice, waves, and any inserts of your player along with autos, chrome and refractors) was not good. I got Cody Reed. But, I have been buying a bunch of other player spots in the break (22, though I then sold one of them off). Pretty much all are low end spots, although there are some good names among the TP players I've picked up.
In the 10-super jumbo case player auction, I have been selling off at a profit a large number of my spots. I'm basically doing arbitrage in the break. A lot of people look at the prices some players from their favorite team went for and regret not bidding more. I'll take some profit (some of the spots went very cheap), and plow it back into buying other cards.
The 25-case break finished. I had a couple more decent cards in the last few cases. Jace Fry did the best for me, with a black refractor /35 and a gold refractor /50. The 10-case break has started. Nothing really big for me through the first 2 cases. The 100-case break is continuing, and will be for a while.
Meanwhile, Topps did something awful on Bowman Draft. They released a checklist a few days before product launch that contained 5 players in the base and base chrome sets who they didn't actually make cards of. In team breaks, this leads to bad valuations of teams. In player breaks (player randoms, player drafts, and player auctions), this leads to people getting spots that are imaginary. I got some myself. The break host is taking care of me and the other people withthe imaginary players, but he ends up paying rather heavily for Topps' unbelievable SNAFU.
I was wrong about refractor numbering in Bowman Draft this year. Black is out of 75, not 35, this year. Green went up to 150, and blue to 399. It covers up the increased case production.
I drafted the Wild in the Certified HK break. They were a much better team than the #16 slot. I should get 3-5 hits.
Other breaks are proceeding for me. No huge hits yet. I had the insert lot in Case 4 of the 20-hobby case Bowman break. Some nice cards, including a Bowman Initiation /99 (those are normally 1/case), but nothing huge. Case 5 had a huge hit - a Bowman Scout Breakout auto. You have no idea which case to pick when you're drafting - it's all luck.
I also got a decent team in a 14-box Totally Certified FB ebay break at a good price, and it was a Buy-It-Now. That break may not happen for a few days.
The 20-case player breaks (both hobby and jumbo) both finished in Bowman Draft. No plates or red refractors for me as far as I can tell, but a bunch of nice color along the way (oranges /25, red and silver waves /25, golds /50). I haven't even watched many of the recap videos yet. In all 40 cases, there was 1 Manziel auto, and no Manziel chrome or base paper cards. One superfractor was hit in the jumbo cases break - and it was a nonauto card of the guy taken with the 203rd pick in the player draft. There were a couple orange paper 1/1 cards hit, as well as a few red paper /5 and red refractors /5. With Topps decreasing paper parallels this year, unless you luck into an orange or red paper (or plate of the Bowman Draft card in a break that assigns plates to the paper parallels spot), you're not going to do well if you draft the paper parallels for a case - hobby cases will yield 6 blue /399, and jumbo cases will yield 8 blue /399, and that's normally it.
I don't think I got any huge hits in the 10-jumbo case break either. The lousy player I got through the random (Cody Reed) did hit a gold refractor /50, which was nice. I did sell off a few slots in those breaks, and the buyers got decent color. I'm happy, because I made a nice ROI quickly on each of those spots. There was a pretty big White Ice 1/1 hit in that 10-case break, and there may also have been an orange paper there. No Manziels there. I actually made a player trade during that break - he got better color (green vs. blue), but I got a better prospect IMO.
The 100-case auction is almost halfway done. Nothing big for me to see lately. They finally hit their first Manziel auto.
In the upcoming 10-super jumbo case break, I ended up selling around 1/3 of my slots, leaving me with a decent profit to defray some of the cost of my other slots. My buyers are happy (most of them wanted players from their personal collection teams), and even at a couple bucks at a time, it adds up when you're selling a bunch and other slots went as low as $5 or $6.
My Certified hockey break happened. It was very topheavy with hits (most of the best quality hits went to the top teams in the product). At the #16 pick, the Wild had the greatest hit quantity available. The other team I was considering there was the Devils, which had a lesser hit quantity but more #'d inserts and the potential for huge Brodeur hits. The Wild got me some nice #'d parallels and 4 autographed rookies (3 of one player and 1 of another). Unfortunately, each of those rookies only played 1 game in the NHL and is now in Europe. The Devils may have had the hit of the break - a 1/1 Kovalchuk laundry tag relic card. I didn't make a bad decision. The Wild have some pretty good hits available (especially Zach Parise), and you can't count on 1/1s.
I bought 2 slots in a random player 1-case break of 2014 Topps Chrome FB because it cost about the same as supersizing a value meal (with one of the half-pound burgers) and it's fun. Besides, being in the break is the only way to snag cheap spots from people who got a common player they don't want, and hope for nice color.
A 10-case player draft break of 2014 Bowman Draft BB (hobby cases) I have a spot in has filled. The draft order will be set by a random later tonight or tomorrow.
I got pick 42 in the random of the 10-hobby case true player draft of 2014 Bowman Draft BB (a true player draft means you get all the inserts and autos of your player along with his base and parallels). This is a great spot, because it assures me of a decent player who has autos in the set. I may trade it at some point for a later autograph-available spot to pick up more picks (in fact, I would have taken one offer if I had seen it before someone else did), but I'm quite happy. I have also purchased 2 later spots and am looking to add more.
The random on the 1-case true player draft of 2014 Chrome FB happened as well. I got Zack Martin and E.J. Manuel with my 2 spots. Due to some good luck, my Manuel spot also carried with it the Isaiah Crowell auto spot (Crowell has no base card in the set). There is about a 20% chance of a Crowell auto in the case - he's in the common tier of autos. It wasn't a great random for me, but the $8.75 for 2 spots break is the time when bad luck doesn't hurt much. Weak players would sell for pocket change, which cuts down on post-random dealing.
In the 1-case player random break of Topps Chrome FB, I got lucky - an Isaiah Crowell auto. I don't know about refractors/color - all I saw was the highlights list. It's only a couple dollar auto, but at 1 auto per box, getting one while spending under $10 is better than ripping your own packs.
I took Luis Ortiz with the #42 pick in the Bowman Draft break, and picked up about 10 late picks as well. I went for guys with insert card possibilities on several of the picks - Ortiz has insert auto possibilities himself. The reason I held this pick rather than trying seriously to trade down was that I saw a significant value difference after about the top 45-48 players to everyone else (largely due to insert autos). That draft just finished, and the break hasn't started yet.
The 100-case break is still going. My best recent hit was a silver wave /25.
I have also reserved spots in several breaks that haven't filled yet, but look like they will quickly, including a large player draft of 2014 Bowman Draft that is just jumbo and super jumbo cases. The super jumbos are hot, due to exclusive parallels and great odds for colored refractors and autos.
I bought 7 cheap players in a 10-case (8 hobby and 2 jumbo) player break of 2014 Bowman Draft on ebay. I did fine (nothing bigger than a gold /50 though).
The Panini Totally Certified ebay break happened. I saw the recap video, and was very happy. Early in the video, they showed a low numbered parallel of a good rookie for my team. Then nothing for me for a long time, until the final card shown was a low numbered legend multi-relic card for my team. I'm very happy. That one's a huge hit.
The 100-case break finished. No other big hits for me (best other hit was a gold ref /50), but I believe I averaged 9 plates/color refractors/waves per player. At the prices I paid, I'm happy. The 10-super jumbo case player auction break also happened. I hit a shimmer refractor /15, an orange /15, and a couple silver waves /25. 2 other shimmers, a red wave /25, and an orange went to spots that I had sold. The Trea Turner nonautographed superfractor was hit in that break.
Luis Ortiz didn't do so well for me in the 10-case true player draft - no autos. But, most of my other players (I had 10 or 11 others) got me color refractors, and some got me inserts too.
The Bowman Initiation inserts I had mentioned in an earlier post are actually 1 in every 2-3 hobby cases. Hitting 1 in each of the 4 cases where I had the insert lot was very good luck.
In a 10-case (5 jumbo and 5 super jumbo) draft break of 2014 Bowman Draft, I took 2 spots, and while 1 didn't get a great spot from the random (#181), the other did (#25). I traded that spot for picks 62, 63, 161, and 264 (268 spots in the draft). I have also bought a number of other late picks. Rather than take a weaker player's autograph slot or a very strong draft pick's first card with those picks, I went for the Pirates and Yankees Top Prospects lots - each has 7 players. I think this maximizes my expected returns - and it certainly helps my odds of hitting a huge card (red refractor or superfractor).
I have bought spots in a couple of basketball breaks that have filled but the randoms haven't happened yet - all for deeply discounted 2012-13 basketball products. I have also reserved spots in several other breaks that haven't filled.
And, I bought 5 decent to strong teams in a 4-box ebay break of 2013-14 Totally Certified hockey. That break will happen tomorrow.
Mixed results from Totally Certified hockey. It was fairly a dud of a break. There were no huge hits. I only got hits from 3 of the 5 teams (base doesn't ship in this break). One team got a rookie, an auto, and a jersey - all of the same player - plus a #'d parallel. A second team had a rookie and a #'d parallel of a very good rookie. And the third team had a Social Signatures autograph, which are quite popular (the players put their twitter handle with the signature). Getting shut out from two strong teams (and I overpaid a bit for one of them) hurts, but my contents weren't too different from the results of breaking a box, for around the same price.
In the jumbo/super jumbo Bowman Draft break, the middle portion of the break featured more people evaluating players the same way I did. I didn't get any more of the large Top Prospects lots. However, I did get a couple smaller ones (2 players each), used spot 161 (picked up in the trade of my original spot) to get a super jumbo case of base (nonchrome) Bowman Draft cards - I have to pay an extra $15.30 for shipping, but we're talking approximately 10 sets worth of cards, and got a bunch of well-regarded 1st and 2nd round players who slipped in the draft (Luke Weaver, Foster Griffin, Chase Vallot, Luis Ortiz, Spencer Adams, Jacob Lindgren, Scott Blewett, and Matt Imhof), plus some lesser players I felt were good values at the spots.
The basketball break randoms happened. Mediocre results for me. In a case break of 2012-13 Limited, I got the Magic. Decent amount of hits, but most are lousy rookies who are out of the league. They do have Nikola Vucevic rookie autos (and rare Penny Hardaway autos), though.
In a break of 1 case each of 2012-13 Limited, Timeless Treasures, and Absolute Memorabilia, I got pick 14 in a team draft. Had the Heat still been there at pick 14, I would have tried to trade or sell the pick, as I would have been able to get a good return on it from someone wanting Lebron jersey/patch hits. But, they went at #13, so I took the Nuggets, who are a decent team in the products, with Faried rookie autos and several HOFer auto possibilities.
A 10-jumbo case player random break of 2014 Bowman Draft BB just had its random. I got Josh Hart. Good prospect, not good luck in the random. I'll be trying to buy more players.
I also bought 4 cheap players in a 10-case (8 hobby and 2 jumbo) ebay player break of 2014 Bowman Draft - that break is ongoing, and 3 of the 4 players have hit #'d cards for me so far (plus a blue wave). Nothing huge for me, but I did see him pull the Michael Mader superfractor.
A 10-case true player draft break of 2014 Topps Chrome FB has just filled, so the random and draft there will happen by Monday. Another large player draft break of 2014 Bowman Draft is close to filling. I'll probably have 2 drafts going on simultaneously. To me, this is great fun, and it's a big part of why I have been doing so many breaks. It's a lot like fantasy sports.
The 10-case ebay break finished. I had a few more hits, none of them huge. Drafts are ongoing in the 2014 Topps Chrome FB 1-case player draft break and the 2014 Bowman Draft BB 20-jumbo case player draft break. I got a weak spot in the Chrome FB break - #176 (of 227). I have purchased a bunch of other spots, with 94 and 95 being my highest. I'm very happy with where I am in the break, as my first 2 picks got me Jace Amaro and DeAnthony Thomas, both of whom have very good insert possibilities. I also picked up 3 players who have regular autos in the set - Jake Matthews, Kony Ealy, and Pierre Desir, several players with variation or veteran insert possibilities (Victor Cruz, Roddy White, and Julius Edelman), and my most recent pick (#176) was Joe Flacco. I got a much better spot in the Bowman Draft break - #52 (of 288). I traded that spot for picks 90, 96, and 3 late picks, and I have bought a bunch of other picks. I took the Reds and Rockies Top Prospect lots with my first 2 picks (5 players each), and Luis Ortiz (nonauto) and the Blue Jays Top Prospects (2 players) with the other 2 picks that have happened so far. The 10-jumbo case true player random break is still going on. Josh Hart got me an orange ice /25 already, and I have hit at least 1 gold refractor /50 among my other players.
I also bought 6 fairly inexpensive teams in a set break of 2014 Bowman Chrome Mini baseball. I was thinking of avoiding it altogether, as it promised to be massively overproduced, but that may not be the case. The colored refractors are quite low numbered. The checklist isn't available to me yet, so I was guessing to some degree as to team value. Only 3 of my 6 teams hit refractors, but 2 of those were color. I had equaled an existing bid on one team, and decided not to bid again. I wish I had - that team hit a top prospect printing plate.. It's not a bad result overall.
I haven't stopped breaking, just been busy and haven't gotten around to posting. I ended up buying into about 13 Bowman Chrome Mini set breaks on ebay - ranging from 1 team to 11 in a break. I got the checklist after the first 2 I was in - it finally got put online. I ended up overall a few refractors short of what would have been expected from the number of teams I bought, but I paid decent prices overall, and I got a plate, an indigo refractor /3 (Alex Reyes), and a couple red refractors among my haul. I bought a strong team in a 12-box break of 2013-14 Totally Certified hockey direct from the breaker. Hit a veteran jersey, an insert auto (Social Media signature), and a couple rookies, but it was a disappointing break (though the Social Media autos sell quite well). I bought 3 strong teams in a 4-box ebay break of 2013-14 Totally Certified hockey (where the base doesn't ship) at great prices. One team only got a #'d parallel. A second got a low #'d rookie parallel. The third team got a #'d parallel, a rookie jersey, a rookie patch, a veteran jersey, and a rookie auto jersey. Overall, a pretty good result.
The basketball breaks where I got the Nuggets and Magic happened. The break where I had the Magic was a dud all around. Maybe 5 teams had nice hits. My best card was a veteran jersey (I also had a rookie auto). The break where I had the Nuggets worked out pretty well. I got a Faried auto, some other autos and jerseys, and a veteran auto jersey, plus a low #'d parallel.
I've been in a lot more Bowman Draft breaks - a couple more 10-case player breaks on ebay and 5, 10, and 20 case player breaks on Blowoutcards (both randoms and drafts). My last random yielded a really good spot - Nick Howard (Reds 1st round pick, who has autos, inserts, and a potential insert auto). I kept that pick and bought a bunch of others. That break just finished. Howard got me 2 base autos (plus base chrome and refractors). My best hit from any of my other players was a silver wave /25. I had some pretty ugly randoms, including getting pick 272 of 288 in one. I did get pick 90 in a true player draft, and used it on Lucas Giolito, who has multiple inserts and is one of the best prospects in baseball. I've been buying a lot more spots (mainly cheap ones) in the breaks. I haven't had any red refractors or 1/1s other than plates (I've gotten a couple more plates), but I did get a red paper /5, and I've picked up a good number of other #d cards and waves. In true player drafts, I have been focusing on guys who also have inserts, because I think I get more value that way. One of those picks paid off very well, as I got a Tyler Danish insert auto /99. I've generally been somewhere around 15-25 players per break, so going into detail beyond the pictures (which I will be taking) would take way too long. I am amassing serious stashes of some of these players. I did sell off a couple nice hits - CJ Edwards orange ice /25 and red ice /150. That covered most of what I had paid for that slot, and the buyer is PCing Edwards. No shipping, no ebay or PayPal fees, and immediate payment means selling hits off while the cards are still with the breaker, so he ships to the buyer, is a nice way to go for fairly low dollar cards.
The Chrome football break went very well for me - Jake Matthews only got 1 auto, but Kony Ealy got 4 and Pierre Desir got 5, and I got a nice quantity of color among my players.
I also got into another Chrome football player break. This one was 15 cases. My pick ended up being #109. I got Jake Matthews again with it. I bought several later picks in the break, but I didn't draft well. I went on vacation and had to leave the host a complete priority list for the draft. I put some players higher than I should have, and ended up taking Arian Foster (who I wrongly thought had a variation possibility) at #137 when Pierre Desir was still available, and took Craig Loston a few picks later when several guys I should have rated higher were available. Late in the break, the host misread my list and took someone who wasn't near the top of my list. The Foster pick ended up not too bad - he hit a sepia refractor /99. Matthews worked out great - a camo auto /99 and 4 base autos. Several of my other picks didn't do well.
I only have a couple busy months of breaks to catch up on. Most of it has been 2014 Bowman Draft. I bought insane numbers of cheap slots in a number of breaks on Blowoutcards, so that I literally ended up with 20% plus of the players in several 5 and 10 case breaks. I have been having very good luck in some of the randoms. I got Luke Weaver in a true player random (you get all cards of that player) and Byron Buxton in another. I traded Buxton for Albert Almora, Robert Stephenson, and Wyatt Strahan in that break. I had some other picks that were pretty high in drafts, including the #9 pick in a 10 case break (4 hobby, 4 jumbo, 2 super jumbo). I traded that pick for 7 later (earliest was #91) picks plus a significant amount of break credit from another breaker, who does ebay breaks as well as on Blowout. I then traded one of those picks (#106) for 3 later picks, as well as lots more buying. I did a few team breaks (1 on ebay, for 2 hobby cases, and 2 directly from the breaker, for a hobby case each). In the ebay break, each team got me an auto (one was an insert auto), and I got a very good quantity of inserts and color. In the first direct break, I had 1 strong team, and got nothing really special. In the other, I had that same team and 2 decent teams. Two of the teams got me an auto, and the third got a tough #d insert. Not bad results. I also did a few more 10-case ebay player breaks - I used up my break credit rather quickly, as he had a 5 hobby, 5 jumbo case auction shortly thereafter. I ended up buying over 1/4 of the set in that auction, most at opening bid. I'm up to 8 plates now from this set, but only 2 red paper /5, and no red refractors /5 (or non-plate 1/1s). I'm doing very well on the /50 and higher number colors though.
I also bought a substantial number of players from a pair of 2014 Bowman Chrome FB 5-case ebay player breaks, mostly lesser rookies with autographs. No truly huge hits, but I did get a good number of autos, including some color (best was gold auto /50).
I bought 2 OK to strong teams in a 6-box ebay break of 2014 Bowman Chrome FB, and got a decent team in a 4-box ebay break of 2014 Panini Certified FB at the same time. I got a nice rookie auto and some parallels from Certified, and an auto from one of the teams in BC FB (and some good inserts from the other).
I also bought the same strong team in 7 4-box ebay breaks of 2013-14 Panini Totally Certified HK where base doesn't ship. I got shut out in the first break, but had at least 1 auto or GU hit in every other break. Nothing huge, but some nice rookie autos included.
I was in a 3 hobby case player break of 2013 Bowman BB on Blowout that took a really long time to fill. I got a very good spot in the random (in the 40s), and bought a bunch of later spots. With my initial spot, I took a Cream of the Crop Minis case lot. I picked case 3. Case 1 ended up hitting a red mini /5. I grabbed a couple gold parallel case lots among my later picks. I did very well in the late stages of the draft, as most other people sort of checked out and just took in order from the default list. I went for the best guys available (I had done some prospecting work), and got the vast majority of guys I wanted.
I did an ebay team break of a half case each of 2014 Topps Chrome and Topps Chrome Mini FB, with an OK team. No autos, but I did get a couple color refractors and a bunch of inserts.
I also had a spot in a 5-case player random on Blowout of 2014 Topps Chrome Mini FB. I got Zach Mettenberger. I'm very glad I turned down offers to buy that spot. I hit a base auto, 2 pink autos /75, and a red auto /5 - plus the base cards, refractors/color, and inserts. I also bought another cheap spot in that break, and it did hit color.
2015 Bowman BB breaks are filling, and we're into the draft for the first one I'm in (20 jumbo case player break on Blowout). I got pick 154 of 322 in the draft (and bought a bunch of later picks), and the draft hasn't gotten to me yet.
The first half of Blowout's 100-case player auction starts closing tonight. I'll be bidding on some cards.
In the 2015 Bowman break that was drafting when I last posted, I had seen the odds for autographs in the Farm's Finest Minis. I didn't believe Topps would actually put good insert autos in at those stated odds (greater than 1 per case). Pick 154 would have been able to get a case worth of minis, including any autos. I traded it down a few slots (picking up another later pick in the process) because I considered getting a case of base 2015 Bowman to be more valuable. I got the case of base at the later spot - and because other people weren't very interested in base, the cases kept sliding down in the draft and I picked up a couple more later. Now a case of base is the absolute safest pick out there - you can get 6 sets from it if collection is perfect. However, Topps wasn't blowing smoke with the stated odds on mini autos [I wasn't crazy to think they might be - the odds for Lucky Redemptions said there would be 5 different ones, but there was only 1.] The case of minis taken with the spot I originally had yielded a gold Robert Stephenson auto /50 and a Francisco Lindor auto. I would have probably taken a different case if it had been my pick (lowest # available rather than highest # available), and that case yielded gold autos /50 of Henry Owens and Blake Swihart. The extra spot I picked up was used for Francisco Mejia. I like him as a prospect, and I did get some color, so it wasn't the worst thing I've done in breaks. I did hit one great card with one of my picks there - a red refractor /5 of Domingo German.
I got a bunch of nonauto slots, a couple insert slots, and a paper base slot in the first half of the 100-case break, and immediately claimed dibs on those spots for the second half - agreeing to pay 10% more for the 2nd half than your winning bid for the first half, and the slot is yours for the second half too. I sold some of the nonauto slots off for a little profit. I then picked up another nonauto slot, another insert slot, and some paper base slots for the second half of the break, plus another nonauto slot for the entire break that no one had bid on the first time around (lower starting bid this time). The break took months to complete and sort (largely due to the amount of paper base that is in 100 cases), so it was July before I got my cards. I did get orange /25 or gold /50 refractors of most of my players (plus other refractors/color on all the players), and I didn't put that much in on anyone.
I've been in several other player breaks of 2015 Bowman on Blowout. I have not had good luck in the randoms, getting late picks each time. I've been buying more picks as well. In one of the breaks, I bought early enough that there were a bunch of auto slots still available when my first 2 picks came up, but I instead went for high-end rookies/prospects (Yasmany Tomas and Robert Refsnyder). I got about 20 chrome of each, but no color (in 2015 Bowman, refractors are #/499, and are treated like color).
The most recent 2015 Bowman break just finished. In this one, I ended up getting autopicked when my phone battery had died and I was unable to log in and make a pick (or send a list). I got the Austin Kubitza auto slot. I would have actually taken a nonauto slot there, but he was probably the best auto available if you were drafting autos then (best prospect auto, and rookie autos are SP relative to prospect autos). I consciously chose an auto at my next pick, as Carlos Asuaje auto looked better than any alternative available. Kubitza didn't do well. Asuaje did very well. Overall, it worked out fine.
I also had some 2015 Bowman player breaks on ebay that I got in (4-case and 5-case breaks). Got cheap players and did OK, with a couple exceptions. In one break, I took Seth Streich, who has an auto. I got a great price for an auto slot, but he didn't hit any autos. In another break, I got Buck Farmer, who has a rookie auto and an insert auto. I overpaid by a few $ for him, and didn't get any autos. My big fail was overpaying for the Reds veterans/rookies/nonprospect inserts in a break. I was thinking that Iglesias and Corcino were both rookie autos for them. Corcino is. Iglesias is a prospect and wasn't part of my slot. Corcino didn't hit me an auto.
I got some nice parallels (orange ref /25, orange paper /25, and purple ice /50) among my many player slots.
In one of my ebay breaks, I won a random giveaway the breaker did - and got a Mike Trout Topps Pro Debut minor league card. Very nice giveaway prize IMO.
I had even a few more Bowman Draft player breaks. One got me a lucky slot where I won an unopened box of 2014 Draft. Michael Chavis auto was the big hit from that box. Got a lot more color from the breaks, some of it quite nice, and even more plates, but still no superfractors or red refractors and only 2 red paper. I also got 2 cases of paper base from the last break from fairly late slots.
I got 1 spot in a 7-case player random of 2012-13 Panini Limited basketball. I got Dwight Howard. This isn't a great spot, but certainly I could have done a lot worse. I got 3 jersey cards for my money. All 3 are different color jerseys, all 3 are numbered of /199 or less, and 2 are really nice looking swatches (one is large and has a pinstripe, and the other has rows of shiny circles). That was fun (and at least my cards have Beckett value greater than what I paid for the slot).
Nick, it's been a while since you updated this thread. Hopefully, you will find some time to post your recent break results and maybe show some scans.
In the meantime, I wanted to share the results of my recent case break. It was actually a half case break (so 6 out of 12 boxes) of 2015 Panini Prizm Basketball. The two main rookies in this product currently are Kristaps Porzingis and Karl Anthony Towns. I recently decided to start a PC of Karl Anthony Towns and Prizm had just released on 12/2. I wanted to get some Prizm RC's of Towns and figured I could add some base RC's with a possibility of Prizm Refractor and Auto upside. I wanted to get a Minnesota slot and looking at previous sales from the day before of half case breaks, slots were running around $50-60 for the T-Wolves. I actually miscalculated my odds as I thought there were more cards per box and fewer cards in the set, so I thought I was going to get 4-5 base RC's of Towns in my break with the added upside of a potential Refractor or Auto. Another benefit of the T-Wolves slot is that they also have some good young players including Andrew Wiggins (potential top 15 player) and a HOFer in Kevin Garnett. I decided to throw snipes on four different half case breaks ending that night for about $43. I won one slot out of those four. After I paid for the slot, I found out that my odds on getting individual base cards to be 1-2 per player. This meant that I basically had much slimmer odds to recoup my investment as I basically had to hit a refractor or auto to make my money back. Luckily the break went in my favor amazingly. First box in, I hit a Wiggins refractor numbered to 25. Second box in, I hit a Towns on card Auto. I would also hit a base Towns RC, an insert Towns RC, a KG refractor and a Tayshaun refractor along with a bunch of other base cards. This half case was incredible as whoever bought the Knicks hit a Porzingis Auto numbered to 65. Below are scans of the big cards from my break.
Comments
Thanks for sharing all your great cards.
-Nathanael
I've made my first pick in the Topps Chrome BB player draft. I got Prince Fielder, who has 3 different inserts in the set to go along with the base card. I have 5 more late picks coming.
I made a slight error on describing my Seferian-Jenkins hits from 2014 Bowman FB - it's one blue /499 and one blue foil /499.
I didn't describe how bad the 2013 Bowman BB break was overall. Not only was collation bad, but it was weak autos overall - no Buxton, Correa, Giolito, Edwards, Meyer, Herrera, Machado, etc. There was only 1 orange and 1 gold auto (though there was a purple Eddie Butler auto), and 1 orange refractor (an Alex Meyer). None of the red or purple ice hits were very big either.
Nick
[edited with further text]
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The collation was very odd - color refractors were clumped by player and team (a couple teams had 6 or 7 color, including one with 2 sepia /99 rookies, and several players had 2 or 3 different refractors), and there were 2 patch autos - and both were from the same team. That team also had a top tier pink auto (/75).
I finished making my picks in the Chrome BB player draft - Zack Greinke, Jered Weaver, Kenley Jansen, Gio Gonzalez, and Jordan Zimmermann. There are a bunch of players on the checklist who didn't get drafted at all, so anything from them will be randomed off after the break. I have a decent shot of landing an extra player that way.
The picture is my better hits from the recent 2014 Bowman BB player random: Lucky Redemption card (Kris Bryant refractor auto), Severino Gonzalez Bowman Black auto /25, blue refractors /250 of Akeel Morris and Steven Ramos, black refractor /99 of Ryon Healy, and green refractor /75 of Armando Rivero (I bought the Rivero spot after the break happened). Not pictured are 2 refractors /500 of Steven Ramos and a refractor /500 of Akeel Morris (or the 45-50ish base cards of each player).
Nick
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The National Treasures hockey case break where I bought a team also happened. I got a nice auto of a current star, won a random for a dual auto (of players who were traded for each other), and lost a random for an 8-piece jersey booklet card where I had 1 spot. I'm happy with the results.
I think I will not go too heavily into this set for breaks. Ebay prices have been trending higher for teams, and it's a fairly high-risk break to begin with. Figure about 48 total cards in the average case (with at least 8 being printing plates from older products) and a lot of randoms on big hits (especially booklets) and a more evenly spread out checklist than most recent Panini products, and you're looking at around 2-3 cards expected for even the best teams.
I didn't get an undrafted player from the Topps Chrome player draft break, and it appears I got just 1 #'d refractor overall from my 6 players. Top autos seem to be SPed there.
Nick
[edited for typos]
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I bought 3 decent to strong teams in a 5-box ebay break of 2013-14 Ultimate Collection hockey. One team got a base #/499, another got a very good rookie #/499, and the third got a rookie auto /299 and a 2-player, 2 patches per player low numbered quad rookie relic (and lost a 3-way random for a 3-player, 2 swatches per player rookie relic card). I essentially got the contents of a box for a quarter of the box price. I'm very happy with the results, though I don't think this set provides very good value.
Nick
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I have also reserved a spot in a 20-hobby case Bowman Chrome baseball break.
Meanwhile, I bought 14 teams in a 3-hobby box ebay break of 2014-15 Upper Deck MVP hockey yesterday, and 8 more in another break today (from the same breaker), plus 1 decent team in a 3-box 2014 Finest baseball ebay break from him today. I paid unbelievably low prices for most of the teams.
The Finest break produced nothing special for me - just 1 refractor and some base, but I got a great price on the team, and they have a good quantity of players.
Yesterday's MVP break was amazing. Each box is supposed to have 1 relic, auto, or Super Script parallel (#/25). There are also Silver Script parallels (1 per pack), 100 shortprints (1 per pack), Colors and Contours inserts (several per box, comprising the full checklist, with several different scarcity levels), and other inserts. I got quite a number of each. All 3 boxes had Super Scripts, and I got 2 of the 3. I lost out on a 8-way random for a divisional rookie redemption for which I had 4 of the 8 spots. I estimate that there are about 200 of each divisional rookie redemption (each one is redeemable for 9 cards), so that hurts. The break had 2 extra hits - a relic and an auto. The relic wasn't one of my teams. But, I got the auto, and it was a monster hit - a dual auto! There are 5 dual autos in the set, and one can be found in every 2612 hobby packs. I estimate around 25 of each dual auto were made. It is literally probably worth at least what I paid for the entire break.
Today's MVP break was disappointing, though I still did very well for what I paid. There were no Super Scripts or relics, and 1 auto (not one of my teams). The extra hits in the first break essentially came out of the boxes in this one (both groups were from the same case). I got quite a few shortprints, inserts, and Silver Scripts though.
At what I was paying for teams, the base cards alone were more than worth it. Everything else was gravy.
Nick
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I ended up with 40 total players in the 10-case Topps Chrome break. Through my not making something clear enough in a list I sent out for drafting, I didn't get Carlos Gonzalez, who has 3 different inserts, with my 2nd pick, but had Clay Buchholz taken for me, who has no inserts but a variation possibility. It's actually working out OK for me, as will be explained shortly. I ended up getting a lot more players who had inserts available than I thought I would.
My 40 players are: Pedro Alvarez, Elvis Andrus, Homer Bailey, Carlos Beltran, Adrian Beltre, Clay Buchholz, Kole Calhoun, Andrew Cashner, Shin Soo Choo, Tony Cingrani, Alex Cobb, Prince Fielder, Dexter Fowler, Avisail Garcia, Brett Gardner, Carlos Gomez, Gio Gonzalez, Zack Greinke, Cole Hamels, Aaron Hill, Desmond Jennings, Ian Kinsler, Corey Kluber, Cliff Lee, Jon Lester, Francisco Liriano, Brandon Moss, Mike Napoli, Joe Nathan, Martin Prado, Jose Reyes, CC Sabathia, Danny Salazar, James Shields, Mark Trumbo, Chase Utley, Jered Weaver, Jayson Werth, Jordan Zimmermann, and Ben Zobrist.
Through 5 of the 10 cases, I don't have any monster hits yet, but I believe I have 17 blue /199, 8 black /100, 3 sepia /75, and 1 gold /50 refractors, to go with inserts, xfractors, refractors, and a lot of base. Buchholz was the gold, 2 of the blacks, and a blue. Gold refractors are falling about 2 per case, with reds about 1 per case (and only 1 atomic /10 overall). Only 1 printing plate has been hit so far. Many of the top autos are seriously shortprinted. This is not a great product overall for value.
Nick
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I bought a good team in another 8-box (case) break of 2013-14 Dominion hockey direct from the seller. I hit a redemption for a rookie patch auto (that's live already) and an auto prime patch (from the Peerless Patches insert set) which looks great - part of the team name is recognizable. I'm very happy with the results.
I bought 2 teams (one decent, and the other fairly weak in overall hit quantity, but with really good hits when it does hit) in a 2-box ebay break of 2013-14 Rookie Anthology hockey. I got 3 base cards between the teams. Panini also has some explaining to do, as one of the boxes was shorted a pack. A lot of the autographs in this set aren't numbered, which makes judging team value difficult. Not a good break for me, but only about $14 total, so not disastrous.
Nick
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I bought a good team in another 8-box break of 2013-14 Dominion hockey (direct from the seller). Hit a quad jersey card (4 players, #/50) and a redemption for a rookie patch auto /299. I'm happy with the result. It may be the last break that seller does on Dominion - it was a fairly weak case overall, and it took 3 days to fill the break (they generally expect to fill in 1 day).
Meanwhile, I'm in on Blowout's 50-case player auction for 2014 Bowman Chrome baseball, which ends next week, and I've also reserved a spot in a 20-case player draft of Bowman Chrome,which is still filling up.
Nick
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Through 18 cases, I have a couple very big hits - Johnny Field /10 refractor (not sure what the name of this type is) and Aaron Brooks /15 refractor (I believe this is the shimmer refractor). The Bobby Wahl spot, which I sold, has also hit a /15 refractor, so the guy who bought the slot should be very happy.
I've hit a lot of lesser color refractors so far too, as well as intentional error variations on Corey Knebel (name on card is Evel Knebel) and Michael Ohlman (name on card is Michael Ohlboy).
I'm trying to flip on this break because I'd rather get some quick profits that I can plow right back into buying singles I like than take up more space with all the massive lots of base prospects (maybe 150 per player) while either working on building lots of rainbows or trying to sell singles of refractors.
Flipping the slots on Blowoutcards's forum already, before the break is over, also eliminates dealing with shipping for me, and if the buyer has other lots they have purchased in the auction, they're paying a fairly small amount for postage.
Meanwhile, I totally missed out on an 8-set team break of 2013 Bowman Chrome Mini on ebay, and teams went really cheaply in it. Plus, the break hit an xfractor set (all the base cards are instead xfractors #/100).
I had stopped searching for these, as there hadn't been any breaks of it in months.
Nick
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I bought 4 late spots postrandom in the 20-hobby case 2014 Bowman Chrome BB player draft, in addition to the one I had purchased initially. The random was not kind to me - I got #226 of 269. The 4 other spots I bought were even later picks.
The last of the veteran and rookie base lots (a case worth) went at #222. I would have taken it if it were still available. I got Chad Pinder at that spot. With my later picks, I got Dylan Unsworth (bought him in the 50-case auction, and then flipped him), Bobby Wahl (same), Jonathan Reynoso, and Breyvic Valera. I was out that evening after my Pinder pick, and sent in a list. I wasn't as careful as I should have been in making the list. Reynoso should have been a lot lower than he was on my list - I'm not at all high on him as a prospect. Valera had the potential of an intentional error, which is a great hit if you get one, but I'm not thrilled with that slot either. I don't know about refractors, blue or black waves, or any intentional errors, but Unsworth got me 4 colored refractors, and the other 4 guys got me none. Wahl and Pinder are at least guys I'm very high on (Unsworth too). Not a great break, but the 4 slots I purchased were cheap enough.
The break was great for color autos, but the vast majority of the autos were damaged (bottom back damage, usually very noticeable). Topps QC needs to do a much better job.
I also got on the backup list, and then bought in when someone didn't pay for their slot, for a full case each break on Blowoutcards of 2012-13 Timeless Treasures BK and 2012-13 Limited BK. These products have tanked since release (more than 60% off MSRP), but you can still get some great cards in them. It's a random team break. I did very well in the random - I got the Celtics, who are a strong team in both hit quantity and quality in both sets. I am looking forward to getting some HOFer autos (Bill Russell or Larry Bird would be exceptionally nice).
That break happens Monday night.
Nick
[edited to correct product name]
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I also bought in on an OK team from 2014 Topps Triple Threads baseball in a case (9-box) break (direct from the breaker). It was a very strong case overall, including auto relics of Vlad Guerrero, Boggs, Rice (3/3), and Hank Aaron, plus a triple All-Star patch, but all I got was a base card and a parallel /325.
I'm still going through the boxes and boxes from my several large breaks on blowoutcards. I have also reserved a spot in a forthcoming player draft 10-case break of Topps Chrome football.
I ended up with, on average, about 3 refractors /500 and 4 color refractors per player I bought in the 50-case Bowman Chrome auction - and there were close to 250 base cards per prospect.
I did find out that the guy who bought the Bobby Wahl spot from me in the 50-caseauction got a carbon fiber refractor /10 and shimmer refractor /15, plus bubbles /99, purple /150, and blue /250 refractors.
Nick
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The same exact thing happened to me last week.
Meanwhile, I bought a team in a case break of 2012-13 Limited basketball on Blowoutcards. About $22 - it's one of those products that has really tumbled on the market. Random team assignment, and I got the Pistons. I was pleased - good # of hits, strong HOFer auto/relic possibilities, plus a top rookie (Drummond). Bad break for me. All I got was a base card. I think I was one of two hitless teams, and the other was the Pelicans. In that product, if you get the Pelicans, you are very happy, because you can get an Anthony Davis rookie auto. But the only thing guaranteed in that break is that the Lakers will get a load of Kobe Anthology cards.
Meanwhile, Topps Chrome FB breaks are happening - in the filling and drafting stage now, as hobby product isn"r live yet, and Bowman Draft BB is starting to fill breaks.
I'm in on a bunch of those on Blowout. 2 different Chrome FB 5-case breaks have reached the drafting stage. I have pick 6 in one and pick 21 in the other.
By random draft spot luck, Im a little bit ahead of average. Both are team drafts. The break where I have pick 6 has an unusual way of dealing with base cards of veterans - they won't be sorted by team, but everyone will get an equal share. If you're a serious team collector, this is a problem, but if you like building base sets, it's a good thing, because it gives you probably about 2/3 of the vet base.
I may sell or trade pick 6, depending on who is gone by that point. It would be a profitable transaction if I do. Pick 21 will almost certainly be kept.
I'm also in on the huge (50-case) Chrome FB player auction on Blowout, which closes over the next couple nights. Topps really jacked up the print run on this product and made a huge auto checklist (73 players, with a bunch of guys who didn't make teams), so there may be a lot of really unhappy buyers on it.
Nick
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I purchased pick 29 from someone in that break too. The draft is ongoing, and it's ongoing in the other break, where I have pick 21.
In a 20-case Bowman Draft player draft (320 slots, with there being insert slots, and auto slots are separate from prospect slots), I had a great random. Pick 16. That's an auto slot of a strong pros. I traded it for pick 38 (which should be a decent auto slot) plus 8 late picks (from #185 to #312). I have also purchased 4 other picks in the 200s, and am expecting to do more dealing.
Nick
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<< <i>I did find out that the guy who bought the Bobby Wahl spot from me in the 50-caseauction got a carbon fiber refractor /10 and shimmer refractor /15, plus bubbles /99, purple /150, and blue /250 refractors.
The same exact thing happened to me last week. >>
He's absolutely thrilled, but I got my price for it. An instant flip for a nice percentage profit is worthwhile 100 times out of 100 to me for a modern player spot that I'm not deadset on PCing.
Nick
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I am looking forward to the 100 case Bowman Draft break though.
Meanwhile, I have acquired 4 other picks in the Bowman Draft player draft, and am working on getting more (including possibly selling pick 38 or trading down with it).
In the 50-case Chrome FB player auction, when it closed Sunday night, I had the Jake Matthews autograph spot, plus rookie spots of Jeff Matthews, Cody Hoffman, Yawin Smallwood, C.J. Fiedorowicz, LaDarius Perkins, Ryan Grant, Will Sutton, and Trent Murphy, and veteran spots of Justin Tuck and Pierre Garcon.
The auction would have closed at a big loss, so the break host exercised the option (stated in the original auction announcement) to reopen it Monday night for an hour of further bidding. I had botched my bidding on veteran spots, and a lot of them went way too cheap. I did a better job on Monday.
I was outbid on the auto spot right away, and on most of the other spots I had previously been high bidder on as time passed. I didn't time my new bids quite as I wanted, and ended up being beaten out on a number of spots because someone had bid that amount a minute or two before me -or had bid lower than my bid, but where I was less than a bidder increment above them, so my bid didn't count.
However, I got 3 rookie spots and 14 veteran spots, and they're fairly high quality. I kept the Jake Matthews spot (at my original bid) and increased my bid to make sure I got the Justin Tuck spot. My other rookies are Greg Robinson and Silas Redd. The other veteran spots I got were Philip Rivers, Andy Dalton, Victor Cruz, Jimmy Graham, Andre Johnson, Montee Ball, C.J. Spiller, Mike Glennon, DeAndre Hopkins, Kendall Wright, Tamba Hali, Geno Smith, and Jordan Cameron. Rivers, Cruz, and Graham have variation card possibilities. I have since sold the Hopkins spot, made an offer to sell the Wright spot, and have put some of the others up for sale.
Nick
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I did sell off the Tamba Hali and Montee Ball spots.
Through the first 7 cases of the break, my only major hit is a gold refractor /50 of Spiller. That break will be going on for a while.
The break where I had the Bengals and Redskins happened. The Redskins got me a pair of autos - Cody Hoffman and Lache Seastrunk camo /99. The Bengals also got me a pair of autos - AJ McCarron and Darqueze Dennard. McCarron appears to be seriously shortprinted, so that's a very nice hit. They also got me a gold refractor /50 of Vontaze Burfict and a red refractor /25 of McCarron. That break worked out great for me.
The break where I have the Seahawks will likely be on Friday.
I won't be getting into more Topps Chrome FB breaks unless they go really cheaply. This set is way overproduced, so base cards and common refractors are in oversupply and tough refractors are hard to come by, and most of the good autos are shortprinted.
I did pick up another spot in the 20-case Bowman Draft break.
I'm also going in on the Bowman Draft 100-case player auction that Blowoutcards is running.
Nick
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The 5-case break of Chrome where I had the Seahawks wasn't very good for me. No autos, and no really good color, though I did get a Marshawn Lynch variation and a Lynch 1000 Yard Club /99 parallel. A superfractor was hit in the break - of an insert.
We're now halfway through the 50-case player auction break. Mike Glennon has been doing very well for me - a gold /50 and a sepia/99, plus 5 other colors of refractor. I believe my players have from 3 to 10 colored refractors each. 3 superfractors have been hit in the break - all of inserts.
Nick
[edited for typo]
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It's not quite monetizing, but I expect to be trading some cards within the 50-case Chrome break. My Philip Rivers spot has hit 3 photo variation cards. I've put out an indicator that I'm ready to trade variation cards with other people who also hit multiples, and a couple people are ready to trade if they do. As long as it's somebody I don't have, value is equal for me, and there are no transaction costs to the trade if it happens before the cards are packaged for shipment.
I bought 4 players in a 5-case ebay player auction of 2014 Chrome FB - Greg Robinson, Victor Cruz, Jimmy Graham, and Cody Hoffman. Hoffman got me 2 base autos, Robinson got me a #'d refractor, Cruz got me a color refractor, and Graham did great - a #'d refractor, a 1000 yard club insert, and a photo variation card.
In the 50-case break, I believe we're through 37 cases so far. 4 players' autograph slots have nothing at all to show for it - Odell Beckham Jr., David Carr, Mike Evans, and Tre Mason. This isn't a collation issue. There are shortprinted autos that are probably at 20% or less of average auto print run.
I know I'm behind on scans. I should have a bunch going up this week.
Nick
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In the 20-hobby case Bowman Draft break, I took the Rockies Top Prospects group slot at #78 - a number of auto slots and the first card spots of a lot of 1st round picks were still available, but I took the best available IMO of the team TP slots - I get all cards of 5 players (Herrera, McMahon, Story, Tapia, and Dahl). Taking the first licensed card of someone like Michael Gettys or Bradley Zimmer was tempting, but I went with the greater chance of a nice hit (I'm expecting an average of 2 special cards per player).
A 1-super jumbo case team draft break of 2014 Bowman Draft has also filled and had its random. I'm in the 2nd of 5 independent cases in the break, and I got #22. It's certainly not a great slot, but there should still be a decent team left.
The 50-case Chrome FB break has finished, but I haven't yet seen a full breakdown of the color. I did get a red refractor /25 of Justin Tuck (and one of Kendall Wright, but that spot has an open sale offer - a guy who PCs him missed the final night of bidding with a family medical emergency, and I made him an offer on the spot that is fair IMO). The break hit 2 other superfractors, 1 veteran and 1 rookie auto. The entire break had 1 Odell Beckham auto, and it came in the final case. It also had 1 auto each of Manziel, Carlos Hyde (a pulsar auto /15), and Eric Ebron (a variation auto /75), and no autos at all of Derek Carr, Mike Evans, or Tre Mason (Carr was one half of the break's only dual auto, but that didn't go to the Derek Carr auto slot, but to its own slot.). It is rumored that no base autos were produced of Mason or Hyde, and none have shown up on ebay. Meanwhile, there were 16 autos each for Robert Herron and Cody Hoffman. My guess is that there may be 2000 or more base autos of the most common players. I doubt these can even hold a $1 value.
The 100-case Bowman Draft player auction has to go to an extended bidding day to have any chance at happening. It's way short of cost. If things had closed, I would have had several rookie and Top Prospects slots, and had won 1 auto slot, which I had already flipped for a decent profit (that deal has been reversed).
And, part of my packages from the Chrome team draft where I had the Bengals and Redskins have arrived - my Bengals hits. I hadn't watched the break, so the inserts and color (other than the McCarron red and Burfict gold) were a surprise - and a good one, including a Jeremy Hill black refractor /299.
Nick
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I figured I could trade down a few spots, pick up one or more later picks, and still get it, but that fell apart when I had to be out and about, and nothing was working well on my phone (including being unable to view messages).
My 2nd pick came along in the 20-case hobby break. I took Erick Fedde, who was the Nationals' 1st round pick. Despite the Tommy John surgery, I'm very high on him as a prospect. I'm secondguessing myself on that pick to some degree, as lots of team Top Prospects lots were still available. But, I don't think he would have lasted to my next pick.
Things worked out fine for me in the super jumbo case team draft. The Pirates were still available to me at pick 22. They have 3 players with autos (average to above average quantity), and a lot of players overall (14, most of any team in the set).
The huge 100-case player auction closed. I could have bid on and gotten a lot more slots, but most were of lesser prospects and roughly $40 apiece does start adding up quickly. I got 4 slots - Jake Luplow (draft pick), and Ben Lively, Devon Travis, and James Ramsey (all 3 are Top Prospects). Jake Luplow is actually a checklist error - it's Jake Reed (Twins reliever prospect). I'm very high on him - he was thoroughly dominant in his first season. But, I traded the rights to that spot away for 3 late picks in the 20-case jumbo draft. That was a great profit for me. I ended up bidding myself up $5 on Ramsey, but I'm quite high on him as a player and didn't want to risk someone else snatching him up without having to jump the bid substantially. Travis was won at the same high bid I had from 2 nights ago, and Lively was a new bid for me. Everyone I had previously been the high bidder on and lost went above what I was willing to spend on them.
Nick
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The Bowman Draft drafts both finished. In the jumbo cases break, I ended up with 15 spots, and a total of 27 players, because I took 4 team Top Prospects lots. I have Pirates, Diamondbacks, Indians, and Mariners TPs, plus Chase Vallot, Trey Supak, Justin Twine, Matt Railey, Michael Cederoth, Jake Cosart, Jace Fry, Wyatt Strahan, Austin Gomber, John Curtiss, and Nick Torres.
In the hobby cases break, I ended up with 6 team TP lots - Rockies, 4 of the Astros (Appel, McCullers, Velasquez, and Hader), White Sox, Mariners, Braves, and Padres, 4 cases worth of inserts, and 21 draft picks - Erick Fedde, Supak, Garrett Fulenchek, Zech Lemond, Spencer Turnbull, Railey, Brett Graves, Fry, Strahan, Cederoth, John Richy, Aaron Brown, Gavin LaValley, Josh Morgan, Gomber, Curtiss, Michael Mader, Taylor Gushue, Torres, Chris Oliver, and Chris Sadberry. That's 39 players in total.
Fedde was a mistake, unless I hit something great of him. I should have taken a TP lot at that point, most likely Reds, but possibly Royals or the other 4 Astros. Now that turns out ice parallels are twice as common as last year (and much more common on the rare ones), a case of ice parallels would also have been an OK pick at that point.
I was right not to take paper parallels - they essentially eliminated a color this year.
I had a few people inquire about buying some players off me, but they were guys I'd rather prospect on than flip. The more effort I put into player selection, the less interest I have in flipping. If I just throw down blanket opening bids in an auction on dozens of people who have no bid, I don't feel much of a stake in the players if I win several.
Nick
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A 10-super-jumbo-case player auction for 2014 Bowman Draft ended on Blowoutcards, and I ended up with a whole bunch of player spots, including some of the bigger rookies and an auto spot. I've been busy selling off the rights to a lot of them, and I'm offering others up. I'm not trying to make a big profit on most of them, but even at a couple dollars apiece (I'm offering some at the next bid increment, which is $2 on bids under $20), it adds up. My arbitrage profits will just get plowed back into other card purchases anyway.
My draft of the Pirates in a super jumbo case paid off. I got a gold refractor, a rookie (1st round pick) printing plate, and a refractor auto and gold auto /50 (both autos were of the same player).
Through 5 cases of the 100-case break, I have 1 hit that made the case highlight photos, but it's a printing plate. Most people don't like plates much, but I do.
Through 3 cases of the 20-hobby case break, I'm really kicking myself for taking Fedde at 135. The Reds, with 5 TP players, were still available, and they have already hit a black /35 and a gold /50 refractor. But, I have some nice hits in the break so far, including a silver wave /25. That break will take a few day break before finishing.
Nick
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My spot in a 10-hobby case true player random (you get paper, ice, waves, and any inserts of your player along with autos, chrome and refractors) was not good. I got Cody Reed. But, I have been buying a bunch of other player spots in the break (22, though I then sold one of them off). Pretty much all are low end spots, although there are some good names among the TP players I've picked up.
In the 10-super jumbo case player auction, I have been selling off at a profit a large number of my spots. I'm basically doing arbitrage in the break. A lot of people look at the prices some players from their favorite team went for and regret not bidding more. I'll take some profit (some of the spots went very cheap), and plow it back into buying other cards.
The 25-case break finished. I had a couple more decent cards in the last few cases. Jace Fry did the best for me, with a black refractor /35 and a gold refractor /50.
The 10-case break has started. Nothing really big for me through the first 2 cases. The 100-case break is continuing, and will be for a while.
Meanwhile, Topps did something awful on Bowman Draft. They released a checklist a few days before product launch that contained 5 players in the base and base chrome sets who they didn't actually make cards of. In team breaks, this leads to bad valuations of teams. In player breaks (player randoms, player drafts, and player auctions), this leads to people getting spots that are imaginary. I got some myself. The break host is taking care of me and the other people withthe imaginary players, but he ends up paying rather heavily for Topps' unbelievable SNAFU.
Nick
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I drafted the Wild in the Certified HK break. They were a much better team than the #16 slot. I should get 3-5 hits.
Other breaks are proceeding for me. No huge hits yet. I had the insert lot in Case 4 of the 20-hobby case Bowman break. Some nice cards, including a Bowman Initiation /99 (those are normally 1/case), but nothing huge. Case 5 had a huge hit - a Bowman Scout Breakout auto. You have no idea which case to pick when you're drafting - it's all luck.
I also got a decent team in a 14-box Totally Certified FB ebay break at a good price, and it was a Buy-It-Now. That break may not happen for a few days.
Nick
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In all 40 cases, there was 1 Manziel auto, and no Manziel chrome or base paper cards. One superfractor was hit in the jumbo cases break - and it was a nonauto card of the guy taken with the 203rd pick in the player draft. There were a couple orange paper 1/1 cards hit, as well as a few red paper /5 and red refractors /5. With Topps decreasing paper parallels this year, unless you luck into an orange or red paper (or plate of the Bowman Draft card in a break that assigns plates to the paper parallels spot), you're not going to do well if you draft the paper parallels for a case - hobby cases will yield 6 blue /399, and jumbo cases will yield 8 blue /399, and that's normally it.
I don't think I got any huge hits in the 10-jumbo case break either. The lousy player I got through the random (Cody Reed) did hit a gold refractor /50, which was nice.
I did sell off a few slots in those breaks, and the buyers got decent color. I'm happy, because I made a nice ROI quickly on each of those spots.
There was a pretty big White Ice 1/1 hit in that 10-case break, and there may also have been an orange paper there. No Manziels there. I actually made a player trade during that break - he got better color (green vs. blue), but I got a better prospect IMO.
The 100-case auction is almost halfway done. Nothing big for me to see lately. They finally hit their first Manziel auto.
In the upcoming 10-super jumbo case break, I ended up selling around 1/3 of my slots, leaving me with a decent profit to defray some of the cost of my other slots. My buyers are happy (most of them wanted players from their personal collection teams), and even at a couple bucks at a time, it adds up when you're selling a bunch and other slots went as low as $5 or $6.
My Certified hockey break happened. It was very topheavy with hits (most of the best quality hits went to the top teams in the product). At the #16 pick, the Wild had the greatest hit quantity available. The other team I was considering there was the Devils, which had a lesser hit quantity but more #'d inserts and the potential for huge Brodeur hits. The Wild got me some nice #'d parallels and 4 autographed rookies (3 of one player and 1 of another). Unfortunately, each of those rookies only played 1 game in the NHL and is now in Europe. The Devils may have had the hit of the break - a 1/1 Kovalchuk laundry tag relic card.
I didn't make a bad decision. The Wild have some pretty good hits available (especially Zach Parise), and you can't count on 1/1s.
I bought 2 slots in a random player 1-case break of 2014 Topps Chrome FB because it cost about the same as supersizing a value meal (with one of the half-pound burgers) and it's fun. Besides, being in the break is the only way to snag cheap spots from people who got a common player they don't want, and hope for nice color.
A 10-case player draft break of 2014 Bowman Draft BB (hobby cases) I have a spot in has filled. The draft order will be set by a random later tonight or tomorrow.
Nick
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The random on the 1-case true player draft of 2014 Chrome FB happened as well. I got Zack Martin and E.J. Manuel with my 2 spots. Due to some good luck, my Manuel spot also carried with it the Isaiah Crowell auto spot (Crowell has no base card in the set). There is about a 20% chance of a Crowell auto in the case - he's in the common tier of autos.
It wasn't a great random for me, but the $8.75 for 2 spots break is the time when bad luck doesn't hurt much.
Weak players would sell for pocket change, which cuts down on post-random dealing.
Nick
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I took Luis Ortiz with the #42 pick in the Bowman Draft break, and picked up about 10 late picks as well. I went for guys with insert card possibilities on several of the picks - Ortiz has insert auto possibilities himself. The reason I held this pick rather than trying seriously to trade down was that I saw a significant value difference after about the top 45-48 players to everyone else (largely due to insert autos). That draft just finished, and the break hasn't started yet.
The 100-case break is still going. My best recent hit was a silver wave /25.
I have also reserved spots in several breaks that haven't filled yet, but look like they will quickly, including a large player draft of 2014 Bowman Draft that is just jumbo and super jumbo cases. The super jumbos are hot, due to exclusive parallels and great odds for colored refractors and autos.
I bought 7 cheap players in a 10-case (8 hobby and 2 jumbo) player break of 2014 Bowman Draft on ebay. I did fine (nothing bigger than a gold /50 though).
The Panini Totally Certified ebay break happened. I saw the recap video, and was very happy. Early in the video, they showed a low numbered parallel of a good rookie for my team. Then nothing for me for a long time, until the final card shown was a low numbered legend multi-relic card for my team. I'm very happy. That one's a huge hit.
Nick
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The 10-super jumbo case player auction break also happened. I hit a shimmer refractor /15, an orange /15, and a couple silver waves /25. 2 other shimmers, a red wave /25, and an orange went to spots that I had sold.
The Trea Turner nonautographed superfractor was hit in that break.
Luis Ortiz didn't do so well for me in the 10-case true player draft - no autos. But, most of my other players (I had 10 or 11 others) got me color refractors, and some got me inserts too.
The Bowman Initiation inserts I had mentioned in an earlier post are actually 1 in every 2-3 hobby cases. Hitting 1 in each of the 4 cases where I had the insert lot was very good luck.
In a 10-case (5 jumbo and 5 super jumbo) draft break of 2014 Bowman Draft, I took 2 spots, and while 1 didn't get a great spot from the random (#181), the other did (#25). I traded that spot for picks 62, 63, 161, and 264 (268 spots in the draft). I have also bought a number of other late picks. Rather than take a weaker player's autograph slot or a very strong draft pick's first card with those picks, I went for the Pirates and Yankees Top Prospects lots - each has 7 players. I think this maximizes my expected returns - and it certainly helps my odds of hitting a huge card (red refractor or superfractor).
I have bought spots in a couple of basketball breaks that have filled but the randoms haven't happened yet - all for deeply discounted 2012-13 basketball products. I have also reserved spots in several other breaks that haven't filled.
And, I bought 5 decent to strong teams in a 4-box ebay break of 2013-14 Totally Certified hockey. That break will happen tomorrow.
Nick
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Mixed results from Totally Certified hockey. It was fairly a dud of a break. There were no huge hits.
I only got hits from 3 of the 5 teams (base doesn't ship in this break). One team got a rookie, an auto, and a jersey - all of the same player - plus a #'d parallel. A second team had a rookie and a #'d parallel of a very good rookie. And the third team had a Social Signatures autograph, which are quite popular (the players put their twitter handle with the signature). Getting shut out from two strong teams (and I overpaid a bit for one of them) hurts, but my contents weren't too different from the results of breaking a box, for around the same price.
In the jumbo/super jumbo Bowman Draft break, the middle portion of the break featured more people evaluating players the same way I did. I didn't get any more of the large Top Prospects lots. However, I did get a couple smaller ones (2 players each), used spot 161 (picked up in the trade of my original spot) to get a super jumbo case of base (nonchrome) Bowman Draft cards - I have to pay an extra $15.30 for shipping, but we're talking approximately 10 sets worth of cards, and got a bunch of well-regarded 1st and 2nd round players who slipped in the draft (Luke Weaver, Foster Griffin, Chase Vallot, Luis Ortiz, Spencer Adams, Jacob Lindgren, Scott Blewett, and Matt Imhof), plus some lesser players I felt were good values at the spots.
The basketball break randoms happened. Mediocre results for me. In a case break of 2012-13 Limited, I got the Magic. Decent amount of hits, but most are lousy rookies who are out of the league. They do have Nikola Vucevic rookie autos (and rare Penny Hardaway autos), though.
In a break of 1 case each of 2012-13 Limited, Timeless Treasures, and Absolute Memorabilia, I got pick 14 in a team draft. Had the Heat still been there at pick 14, I would have tried to trade or sell the pick, as I would have been able to get a good return on it from someone wanting Lebron jersey/patch hits. But, they went at #13, so I took the Nuggets, who are a decent team in the products, with Faried rookie autos and several HOFer auto possibilities.
A 10-jumbo case player random break of 2014 Bowman Draft BB just had its random. I got Josh Hart. Good prospect, not good luck in the random. I'll be trying to buy more players.
I also bought 4 cheap players in a 10-case (8 hobby and 2 jumbo) ebay player break of 2014 Bowman Draft - that break is ongoing, and 3 of the 4 players have hit #'d cards for me so far (plus a blue wave). Nothing huge for me, but I did see him pull the Michael Mader superfractor.
A 10-case true player draft break of 2014 Topps Chrome FB has just filled, so the random and draft there will happen by Monday. Another large player draft break of 2014 Bowman Draft is close to filling. I'll probably have 2 drafts going on simultaneously. To me, this is great fun, and it's a big part of why I have been doing so many breaks. It's a lot like fantasy sports.
Nick
[edited to update and add text]
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Drafts are ongoing in the 2014 Topps Chrome FB 1-case player draft break and the 2014 Bowman Draft BB 20-jumbo case player draft break.
I got a weak spot in the Chrome FB break - #176 (of 227). I have purchased a bunch of other spots, with 94 and 95 being my highest. I'm very happy with where I am in the break, as my first 2 picks got me Jace Amaro and DeAnthony Thomas, both of whom have very good insert possibilities. I also picked up 3 players who have regular autos in the set - Jake Matthews, Kony Ealy, and Pierre Desir, several players with variation or veteran insert possibilities (Victor Cruz, Roddy White, and Julius Edelman), and my most recent pick (#176) was Joe Flacco.
I got a much better spot in the Bowman Draft break - #52 (of 288). I traded that spot for picks 90, 96, and 3 late picks, and I have bought a bunch of other picks. I took the Reds and Rockies Top Prospect lots with my first 2 picks (5 players each), and Luis Ortiz (nonauto) and the Blue Jays Top Prospects (2 players) with the other 2 picks that have happened so far.
The 10-jumbo case true player random break is still going on. Josh Hart got me an orange ice /25 already, and I have hit at least 1 gold refractor /50 among my other players.
I also bought 6 fairly inexpensive teams in a set break of 2014 Bowman Chrome Mini baseball. I was thinking of avoiding it altogether, as it promised to be massively overproduced, but that may not be the case. The colored refractors are quite low numbered. The checklist isn't available to me yet, so I was guessing to some degree as to team value. Only 3 of my 6 teams hit refractors, but 2 of those were color. I had equaled an existing bid on one team, and decided not to bid again. I wish I had - that team hit a top prospect printing plate.. It's not a bad result overall.
Nick
[edited for punctuation]
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I bought a strong team in a 12-box break of 2013-14 Totally Certified hockey direct from the breaker. Hit a veteran jersey, an insert auto (Social Media signature), and a couple rookies, but it was a disappointing break (though the Social Media autos sell quite well).
I bought 3 strong teams in a 4-box ebay break of 2013-14 Totally Certified hockey (where the base doesn't ship) at great prices. One team only got a #'d parallel. A second got a low #'d rookie parallel. The third team got a #'d parallel, a rookie jersey, a rookie patch, a veteran jersey, and a rookie auto jersey. Overall, a pretty good result.
The basketball breaks where I got the Nuggets and Magic happened. The break where I had the Magic was a dud all around. Maybe 5 teams had nice hits. My best card was a veteran jersey (I also had a rookie auto). The break where I had the Nuggets worked out pretty well. I got a Faried auto, some other autos and jerseys, and a veteran auto jersey, plus a low #'d parallel.
I've been in a lot more Bowman Draft breaks - a couple more 10-case player breaks on ebay and 5, 10, and 20 case player breaks on Blowoutcards (both randoms and drafts). My last random yielded a really good spot - Nick Howard (Reds 1st round pick, who has autos, inserts, and a potential insert auto). I kept that pick and bought a bunch of others. That break just finished. Howard got me 2 base autos (plus base chrome and refractors). My best hit from any of my other players was a silver wave /25.
I had some pretty ugly randoms, including getting pick 272 of 288 in one. I did get pick 90 in a true player draft, and used it on Lucas Giolito, who has multiple inserts and is one of the best prospects in baseball. I've been buying a lot more spots (mainly cheap ones) in the breaks. I haven't had any red refractors or 1/1s other than plates (I've gotten a couple more plates), but I did get a red paper /5, and I've picked up a good number of other #d cards and waves. In true player drafts, I have been focusing on guys who also have inserts, because I think I get more value that way. One of those picks paid off very well, as I got a Tyler Danish insert auto /99. I've generally been somewhere around 15-25 players per break, so going into detail beyond the pictures (which I will be taking) would take way too long. I am amassing serious stashes of some of these players.
I did sell off a couple nice hits - CJ Edwards orange ice /25 and red ice /150. That covered most of what I had paid for that slot, and the buyer is PCing Edwards. No shipping, no ebay or PayPal fees, and immediate payment means selling hits off while the cards are still with the breaker, so he ships to the buyer, is a nice way to go for fairly low dollar cards.
The Chrome football break went very well for me - Jake Matthews only got 1 auto, but Kony Ealy got 4 and Pierre Desir got 5, and I got a nice quantity of color among my players.
I also got into another Chrome football player break. This one was 15 cases. My pick ended up being #109. I got Jake Matthews again with it. I bought several later picks in the break, but I didn't draft well. I went on vacation and had to leave the host a complete priority list for the draft. I put some players higher than I should have, and ended up taking Arian Foster (who I wrongly thought had a variation possibility) at #137 when Pierre Desir was still available, and took Craig Loston a few picks later when several guys I should have rated higher were available. Late in the break, the host misread my list and took someone who wasn't near the top of my list. The Foster pick ended up not too bad - he hit a sepia refractor /99. Matthews worked out great - a camo auto /99 and 4 base autos. Several of my other picks didn't do well.
Nick
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Most of it has been 2014 Bowman Draft. I bought insane numbers of cheap slots in a number of breaks on Blowoutcards, so that I literally ended up with 20% plus of the players in several 5 and 10 case breaks.
I have been having very good luck in some of the randoms. I got Luke Weaver in a true player random (you get all cards of that player) and Byron Buxton in another. I traded Buxton for Albert Almora, Robert Stephenson, and Wyatt Strahan in that break.
I had some other picks that were pretty high in drafts, including the #9 pick in a 10 case break (4 hobby, 4 jumbo, 2 super jumbo). I traded that pick for 7 later (earliest was #91) picks plus a significant amount of break credit from another breaker, who does ebay breaks as well as on Blowout. I then traded one of those picks (#106) for 3 later picks, as well as lots more buying.
I did a few team breaks (1 on ebay, for 2 hobby cases, and 2 directly from the breaker, for a hobby case each). In the ebay break, each team got me an auto (one was an insert auto), and I got a very good quantity of inserts and color. In the first direct break, I had 1 strong team, and got nothing really special. In the other, I had that same team and 2 decent teams. Two of the teams got me an auto, and the third got a tough #d insert. Not bad results.
I also did a few more 10-case ebay player breaks - I used up my break credit rather quickly, as he had a 5 hobby, 5 jumbo case auction shortly thereafter. I ended up buying over 1/4 of the set in that auction, most at opening bid.
I'm up to 8 plates now from this set, but only 2 red paper /5, and no red refractors /5 (or non-plate 1/1s). I'm doing very well on the /50 and higher number colors though.
I also bought a substantial number of players from a pair of 2014 Bowman Chrome FB 5-case ebay player breaks, mostly lesser rookies with autographs. No truly huge hits, but I did get a good number of autos, including some color (best was gold auto /50).
I bought 2 OK to strong teams in a 6-box ebay break of 2014 Bowman Chrome FB, and got a decent team in a 4-box ebay break of 2014 Panini Certified FB at the same time. I got a nice rookie auto and some parallels from Certified, and an auto from one of the teams in BC FB (and some good inserts from the other).
I also bought the same strong team in 7 4-box ebay breaks of 2013-14 Panini Totally Certified HK where base doesn't ship. I got shut out in the first break, but had at least 1 auto or GU hit in every other break. Nothing huge, but some nice rookie autos included.
I was in a 3 hobby case player break of 2013 Bowman BB on Blowout that took a really long time to fill. I got a very good spot in the random (in the 40s), and bought a bunch of later spots. With my initial spot, I took a Cream of the Crop Minis case lot. I picked case 3. Case 1 ended up hitting a red mini /5. I grabbed a couple gold parallel case lots among my later picks. I did very well in the late stages of the draft, as most other people sort of checked out and just took in order from the default list. I went for the best guys available (I had done some prospecting work), and got the vast majority of guys I wanted.
I did an ebay team break of a half case each of 2014 Topps Chrome and Topps Chrome Mini FB, with an OK team. No autos, but I did get a couple color refractors and a bunch of inserts.
I also had a spot in a 5-case player random on Blowout of 2014 Topps Chrome Mini FB. I got Zach Mettenberger. I'm very glad I turned down offers to buy that spot. I hit a base auto, 2 pink autos /75, and a red auto /5 - plus the base cards, refractors/color, and inserts. I also bought another cheap spot in that break, and it did hit color.
2015 Bowman BB breaks are filling, and we're into the draft for the first one I'm in (20 jumbo case player break on Blowout). I got pick 154 of 322 in the draft (and bought a bunch of later picks), and the draft hasn't gotten to me yet.
The first half of Blowout's 100-case player auction starts closing tonight. I'll be bidding on some cards.
Nick
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In the 2015 Bowman break that was drafting when I last posted, I had seen the odds for autographs in the Farm's Finest Minis. I didn't believe Topps would actually put good insert autos in at those stated odds (greater than 1 per case). Pick 154 would have been able to get a case worth of minis, including any autos. I traded it down a few slots (picking up another later pick in the process) because I considered getting a case of base 2015 Bowman to be more valuable. I got the case of base at the later spot - and because other people weren't very interested in base, the cases kept sliding down in the draft and I picked up a couple more later. Now a case of base is the absolute safest pick out there - you can get 6 sets from it if collection is perfect. However, Topps wasn't blowing smoke with the stated odds on mini autos [I wasn't crazy to think they might be - the odds for Lucky Redemptions said there would be 5 different ones, but there was only 1.] The case of minis taken with the spot I originally had yielded a gold Robert Stephenson auto /50 and a Francisco Lindor auto. I would have probably taken a different case if it had been my pick (lowest # available rather than highest # available), and that case yielded gold autos /50 of Henry Owens and Blake Swihart. The extra spot I picked up was used for Francisco Mejia. I like him as a prospect, and I did get some color, so it wasn't the worst thing I've done in breaks. I did hit one great card with one of my picks there - a red refractor /5 of Domingo German.
I got a bunch of nonauto slots, a couple insert slots, and a paper base slot in the first half of the 100-case break, and immediately claimed dibs on those spots for the second half - agreeing to pay 10% more for the 2nd half than your winning bid for the first half, and the slot is yours for the second half too. I sold some of the nonauto slots off for a little profit. I then picked up another nonauto slot, another insert slot, and some paper base slots for the second half of the break, plus another nonauto slot for the entire break that no one had bid on the first time around (lower starting bid this time).
The break took months to complete and sort (largely due to the amount of paper base that is in 100 cases), so it was July before I got my cards. I did get orange /25 or gold /50 refractors of most of my players (plus other refractors/color on all the players), and I didn't put that much in on anyone.
I've been in several other player breaks of 2015 Bowman on Blowout. I have not had good luck in the randoms, getting late picks each time. I've been buying more picks as well. In one of the breaks, I bought early enough that there were a bunch of auto slots still available when my first 2 picks came up, but I instead went for high-end rookies/prospects (Yasmany Tomas and Robert Refsnyder). I got about 20 chrome of each, but no color (in 2015 Bowman, refractors are #/499, and are treated like color).
The most recent 2015 Bowman break just finished. In this one, I ended up getting autopicked when my phone battery had died and I was unable to log in and make a pick (or send a list). I got the Austin Kubitza auto slot. I would have actually taken a nonauto slot there, but he was probably the best auto available if you were drafting autos then (best prospect auto, and rookie autos are SP relative to prospect autos). I consciously chose an auto at my next pick, as Carlos Asuaje auto looked better than any alternative available. Kubitza didn't do well. Asuaje did very well. Overall, it worked out fine.
I also had some 2015 Bowman player breaks on ebay that I got in (4-case and 5-case breaks). Got cheap players and did OK, with a couple exceptions. In one break, I took Seth Streich, who has an auto. I got a great price for an auto slot, but he didn't hit any autos. In another break, I got Buck Farmer, who has a rookie auto and an insert auto. I overpaid by a few $ for him, and didn't get any autos. My big fail was overpaying for the Reds veterans/rookies/nonprospect inserts in a break. I was thinking that Iglesias and Corcino were both rookie autos for them. Corcino is. Iglesias is a prospect and wasn't part of my slot. Corcino didn't hit me an auto.
I got some nice parallels (orange ref /25, orange paper /25, and purple ice /50) among my many player slots.
In one of my ebay breaks, I won a random giveaway the breaker did - and got a Mike Trout Topps Pro Debut minor league card. Very nice giveaway prize IMO.
I had even a few more Bowman Draft player breaks. One got me a lucky slot where I won an unopened box of 2014 Draft. Michael Chavis auto was the big hit from that box. Got a lot more color from the breaks, some of it quite nice, and even more plates, but still no superfractors or red refractors and only 2 red paper. I also got 2 cases of paper base from the last break from fairly late slots.
I got 1 spot in a 7-case player random of 2012-13 Panini Limited basketball. I got Dwight Howard. This isn't a great spot, but certainly I could have done a lot worse. I got 3 jersey cards for my money. All 3 are different color jerseys, all 3 are numbered of /199 or less, and 2 are really nice looking swatches (one is large and has a pinstripe, and the other has rows of shiny circles). That was fun (and at least my cards have Beckett value greater than what I paid for the slot).
Nick
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In the meantime, I wanted to share the results of my recent case break. It was actually a half case break (so 6 out of 12 boxes) of 2015 Panini Prizm Basketball. The two main rookies in this product currently are Kristaps Porzingis and Karl Anthony Towns. I recently decided to start a PC of Karl Anthony Towns and Prizm had just released on 12/2. I wanted to get some Prizm RC's of Towns and figured I could add some base RC's with a possibility of Prizm Refractor and Auto upside. I wanted to get a Minnesota slot and looking at previous sales from the day before of half case breaks, slots were running around $50-60 for the T-Wolves. I actually miscalculated my odds as I thought there were more cards per box and fewer cards in the set, so I thought I was going to get 4-5 base RC's of Towns in my break with the added upside of a potential Refractor or Auto. Another benefit of the T-Wolves slot is that they also have some good young players including Andrew Wiggins (potential top 15 player) and a HOFer in Kevin Garnett. I decided to throw snipes on four different half case breaks ending that night for about $43. I won one slot out of those four. After I paid for the slot, I found out that my odds on getting individual base cards to be 1-2 per player. This meant that I basically had much slimmer odds to recoup my investment as I basically had to hit a refractor or auto to make my money back. Luckily the break went in my favor amazingly. First box in, I hit a Wiggins refractor numbered to 25. Second box in, I hit a Towns on card Auto. I would also hit a base Towns RC, an insert Towns RC, a KG refractor and a Tayshaun refractor along with a bunch of other base cards. This half case was incredible as whoever bought the Knicks hit a Porzingis Auto numbered to 65. Below are scans of the big cards from my break.