Adventures in casebreaking

NickM

With the plethora of online boxbreakers, I decided to look for bargains in boxbreak participation costs.

The Raiders have a surprisingly high amount of content in 2013 Panini Certified - 5 of the 100 rookies and 3 of the 50 Immortals (rookies and Immortals are each numbered to 999), with an above-average number of auto and relic hits (although a good chunk of those are practice squad QB Tyler Wilson).

I found one breaker at $16 shipped for the Raiders content from an 8 box case. Based on the 32 auto or relic hits in a case, that gives an expectation of at least 1 hit, most likely a rookie auto, plus all the other content. That's not bad, especially since they were priced like teams that had far fewer hit opportunities.

The break was aired live, though I watched it later on youtube. I did all right.

Some base cards, a McFadden red parallel #/250, 2 Immortals (Bo and Tim Brown), Hayden, Kasa, and Rivera rookies, and a Hayden red auto #/999, shipped with proper protection in a small plastic case. In early transactions on ebay, the Hayden auto is going for $10 to $15 by itself.

I have another Raiders buy from another breaker (same product, similar pricing) that I've only watched part of the video on (24 box master case), so I'll post more on that when I have seen the full video and have the cards in hand. So far, so good on this one.

I'm not going to name breakers who did everything right, because pointing out that someone underpriced a product is very impolite IMO.

But I will point out what so far looks like a transaction gone bad. Elite Card Breaks has disappeared since Sept. 30 (no activity on twitter, no response to email, and the team I bought in a break still shows as in stock on their website). I'll give it a couple more days, and then go to PayPal.

Nick

tmgrnzx9r

Nick,
Looks like you did well for your investment. Have you tried this on other sites besides ebay? Do you only collect football? I mainly collect baseball and was recently in a 20 case bowman chrome case. It was an auction style break through a website and not eBay. They had spots for every player and other spots for their autos as well. I had the same player for both the auto and chrome spot. I lost money on the auto spot but I feel with baseball you are better off with the cheaper chrome spots. I paid 12 bucks for the chrome spot and ended up with 74 chrome cards, 6 refractors, 1 blue refractor /250, 1 purple refractor /199 and a orange refractor /25. So like in your situation lesser money spent sometimes yields better returns. Good luck on your next break and post results.

NickM

None of these were ebay buys - all were from breakers who have their own websites. I've bid on some on ebay recently, but not won any. I have won a few cheap ones on ebay in the past with mixed results (but when you're buying several teams out of a box at a dollar or so apiece, getting a jersey card for $6 in effect falls into the category where it's neither a win or a loss).

I collect all sports. This just happened to be something where my review of a newly released set revealed something I thought was a good buy opportunity from people who hadn't priced a team properly (probably due to lack of collector interest)

Nick

NickM

My other Raiders buy from Certified came through fine. 5 rookies - 2 Rivera, a Hayden, and 2 Tyler Wilson, a Platinum Blue (Platinum cards are from the 1 hot box per case) Kasa rookie #/100, a Platinum Red Jacoby Ford, a Platinum Red Stabler Immortals (Platinum Red Immortals aren't numbered), a Mirror Red Stabler Immortals #/250, Tim Brown Immortals, a Hayden red auto #/999, a Hayden blue auto #/100, and a Rivera blue auto #/100. Oddly, there were very few Raiders base cards. Packaging was acceptable.
I'm happy with that break - it's basically prospecting on my favorite team with that set makeup and odds.

Elite Cards came back online, apologized for running into problems, and refunded my money.

I bought into a few ebay breaks recently - 2 from Prizm FB and 1 from NBA Hoops. I lucked out due to late release of the checklist, so I don't think people realized how heavy the content was for some teams in Prizm. One 6-box Prizm break for 1 team yielded nothing much, but the other was a 12-box (case) break where I had 2 teams and hit nicely - 3 rookie autos and 2 rookie Prizms with less than $30 spent.

Prizm FB is going to fizzle on the market IMO. While there's a huge checklist for veteran autos, most are quite hard to find, and the content is just not there to justify the box prices - 2 autos, 1 numbered card (normally #/50), and 3 Prizms per box looks more like a $50-$70 product than a $90-$100 product.

NBA Hoops has a deep but pretty lousy auto checklist. 2 autos and 1 jersey card per box just doesn't have much hit potential when boxes are $90 to $100 (jumbo box). You buy this for the base cards, and maybe for some of the inserts. I got one team cheaply because of a rookie I'm quite high on, and took another cheaply because it was really cheap after combined shipping. I'll have a load of base cards coming.

Nick

GB5HOF

I absolutely love participating in full case breaks and having just my team (Detroit Lions). I wasn't sold on the 2013 NFL rookie class as a whole...so I steered away from opening cases and boxes on my own. The team breaks were a cool, inexpensive solution to see all of the new product...and have the chance to pull some cool stuff from my favorite team. I was in a Panini Certified full case break about a month ago and hit the Barry Sanders Signature Materials Serial # /5. Needless to say I've been hooked ever since.

NickM

Sweet. Lions are normally not a strong team in this year's breaks. You lucked out bigtime.

The 6-box Jaguars Prizm cards arrived - several Denard Robinson HRX cards (which are about as common as base), a bunch of base, and 3 rookies. Collation wasn't my friend on those boxes, but it's not a lot of $ involved (under $12). The 3-box NBA Hoops break of Celtics and Nuggets cards also arrived - a lot of cards for $10, including quite a few inserts (the Celtics are heavily represented in the HOF insert set), a few gold cards, and 3 Olynyk rookies (the reason I bought Celtics in the first place, and then added another team cheaply). He reminds me a lot of Dirk Nowitzki on the court.

I saw a seller offering several Triple Threads teams cheaply, so I bought one that looked like a great deal after checking the product on Group Break Checklists. Unfortunately, I misread the listings there, and looked at the righthand column as the key. That's just the relic column in this product (though it's the total column in many other products). I bought the Phillies, who have very few autos in the product and are a below average hit-potential team, and passed on a couple other teams that were way undervalued. One of those, the Padres, hit on a nice auto relic and a triple relic #/3! I had one card that went to a random due to multiple teams being represented (I lost the random) and 1 hit - a jersey card that was the last hit of the last box. It's a HOFer, so it's a nice card, but nowhere near in ebay value what I paid for the break spot (about a $5 card plus shipping on ebay). I did get 1 numbered parallel and some base. None of those has arrived yet.

I bought 2 teams on ebay in another 9 box Triple Threads break, which happened today. That case was loaded for several teams - 5 Red Sox hits, 4 Cardinals hits (including a 1/1), and a few other teams did very well - there were 3 1/1s, and a 6 relic legends booklet including Williams, Foxx, Cobb, Gehrig, and 2 others I don't recall offhand (that went to a random). I'm psyched about my hits - 1 team had an auto relic, while another had an auto relic and a 1/1 triple relic.

Nick

NickM

I don't like random team breaks, and normally avoid those at all costs, but a seller decided to put up 2 boxes of 2011 Leaf Limited BB at $2 for a random team, with no one allowed more than 1 team. That 2 boxes is 14 cards, with everything being serial numbered and normally 6 being autos or relics, so figure almost a 50% chance of a card if you have a random team. Even on discount, those boxes sell for over $40 each, so I took a flyer. I got the Tigers. I lucked out bigtime.
Miguel Cabrera base #/249, Prince Fielder parallel #/199, and a prospect auto #/299 (if you're willing to still consider Hernan Perez a prospect after he OPSed .445 in 34 games for the Tigers this year). Everything arrived, safely packaged.

The Triple Threads HOFer jersey arrived safe and sound too (4 base cards with it) - it's a Jim Bunning jumbo swatch #/27, and its ebay value may be a good deal higher than I thought - while the first of his jerseys from this set went cheaply on ebay, the last went off at about $15.

My cards from the 12-box Prizm break came in, also well packaged. I had the Jaguars and the Ravens. There is a lot of content from both teams in this set, and I had a really lucky break to boot. In addition to a whole bunch of base and Denard HRX cards, I got from the Jags a Denard Robinson rookie auto redemption, 2 Ace Sanders rookie Prizms, and 9 rookie cards - 5 of which were of Sanders. From the Ravens, besides all the base cards, I got 3 rookie cards and 2 rookie autos - Matt Elam and Aaron Mellette. Elam looks good on the field.

I bought into another couple ebay breaks recently - I threw in a marker bid on one team in a 3-jumbo box break of NBA Hoops so I'd remember to come back and bid later on any team that looked like a good value. I got busy, and never came back, but won that team at a ridiculously low price (under $2 before shipping). I took advantage of combined shipping to pick up a Topps Chrome BB team from the same seller at a decent price. All I watched of the NBA Hoops break was the end hit recap - no big scores, but it's not as if I would have been that excited to get a Greg Stiemsma auto (which wasn't much worse than most of the other 5 autos in the break). But this team has strong insert content, so I'm sure I picked up some decent value. I did OK on the Chrome break - an Xfractor and 2 Refractors along with about 10 base cards. I paid less for this than I would have for 3 loose packs of Chrome, so I had a pretty good return. These haven't arrived yet.

Nick

FavreFan1971

Being a Packer collector it gets rather expensive for me on these but they are fun.

NickM

My Topps Chrome BB and Hoops cards arrived. Marketvaluewise, I lost money on the Chrome (I had the Diamondbacks) - but I got 10 base, Goldschmidt and Ziegler refractors, and Goldschmidt xfractor. I like the results. Goldschmidt is a beast, and I did better than you can expect from 3 random loose packs, for less money. I did well on the Hoops (I had the Nets) - a lot of base, including 3 of the Plumlee rookie, a bunch of inserts (trading for Garnett and Pierce stacked their representation in insert sets), and 7 gold cards, including Garnett, Pierce, and Plumlee. Good stuff for the money.

I bought into 2 more ebay breaks that went off yesterday evening - one in football (1 team) and 1 in baseball (2 teams).
The football was pretty good, but the baseball was OMG SICK MOJO HITZ!!!!!!!!!!.

Seriously, I'll be posting a thread with the results when they come in the mail. It's that good.

Nick

NickM

At last. Maildays.

The Triple Threads that I mentioned arrived. I had the Rockies and Padres in a 9-box break.

Not pictured - a CarGo base and a Gwynn purple parallel #/650.
Pictured: CarGo black parallel #/50, Andrew Cashner auto triple relic #/99, Josh Rutledge auto triple relic green #/50, and CarGo triple relic ruby #1/1. The middle relic is a 4-color patch.

Not bad for just over $50.

The football break was the Raiders in an 8-box 2013 Panini Certified break. Another D.J. Hayden rookie auto headlined it, and was accompanied by Conner Vernon and Mychal Rivera rookies, 2 Vernon Mirror Red #/250, a Tim Brown Immortals, Platinum Reds of Matt Flynn and Stabler Immortals, and some base cards. I got it at $13.50, so I'm happy.

The other baseball break with great returns was another 2013 Triple Threads 9-box break. This time, I had the Rockies and Brewers, and paid a bit under $50.


Not pictured: base cards
Pictured: Norichira Aoki triple relic #/36, Yovani Gallardo jumbo relic #/27, Josh Rutledge auto triple relic #/99, Tulowitzki jumbo (3-color) patch gold #/9, Jean Segura jumbo (2-color) patch ruby #1/1, and Dexter Fowler White Whale auto triple relic plate #1/1 (the middle relic is a 2-color patch).

2 teams, 9 boxes, 6 of the 36 hits, including both of the 1/1s. I have them in hand, and I still have trouble believing it.

Nick

jmmiller777

It's good to see the guys that make out good on these breaks. I have horrible box break karma, never again. When you get 3-4 cards and the breaker charges everyone $7 for shipping it makes me believe I am on the wrong side of the deal. What are you guys getting charged for shipping and is this ever negotiable when you receive a few (less than say, 10 cards) cards? Just curious...

Stone193

Geez Nick - that's off the chart! Congratulations.

Very nice looking cards. Thanx for taking the time to scan.

NickM

Most of the breakers I have bought from on ebay charge $2 to $4 for shipping, and will discount combined shipping substantially. From guys who have their own sites or sell on twitter &/or facebook, shipping is often built into the team price.

Nick

NickM

Bought 3 teams on ebay for a 2012 Limited FB 5-box break that were going cheaply and had reasonable return potential. Had a pretty big hit (rookie auto #/25 redemption) and a base rookie of the same player. Unfortunately, he's a defensive player, so they're not all that valuable. I spent $17 and change, and certainly can't complain about getting the biggest hit from one box.

I also found a discount offer on Twitter for some more Triple Threads breaks - bought the Rockies in both halves of a 18-box master case and the Brewers in one half of it. My results weren't bad (3 hits, 2 of them auto'ed, plus a very nice 3-player relic #/9, plus a low numbered parallel), but my streak broke of having at least 1 hit in every team in every break (both Rockies hits were in the same half). I spent under $70 for it, which is fairly cheap, as far as Triple Threads goes. Time to assume my luck has run its course here.

Nick

ReggieCleveland

Thanks for sharing Nick. I don't buy much modern but I've enjoyed reading about your accounts and seeing your scans. Hoping you stick with it and your luck doesn't run out.

WhiteTornado

Thanks for sharing the detailed info, very informative. Nice job on the pickups! I may try this for football only.

NickM

I went in on another ebay break of Triple Threads (yeah, I know, I'm overdoing it) - I bought one team (Padres) and had 2 more that I was going to place last minute bids on when ebay froze up on me. 2 teams sold at prices below what I would have paid (I have no idea what the winners' max bids were).
The break just happened - I did fine - an auto relic and an auto triple relic (and I lost a 3 way random for a 3-player triple relic).
But I would have done well with the other 2 teams - one had a silver auto triple relic and an auto triple relic, and the other had a 1/1 triple relic.

I'm continually amazed at the prices breakers are getting for Triple Threads in 3-box breaks. It's normally substantially more than 50% of what they are getting for teams in 9-box breaks.

Nick

NickM

Mail came in on the Leaf Limited FB (I had 3 teams - Chiefs, Panthers, and Jets, but only the Chiefs hit anything) and the 2-team Triple Threads (Rockies and Brewers) breaks. Both were shipped well.


Pictured: Arenado/Tulowitzki/CarGo gold triple relic #/9 (middle relic is a 4-color patch that appears to be from the edge of a logo), Wily Peralta TTT emerald auto jumbo relic #/50, Josh Rutledge TTT gold auto jumbo relic #/25, Tulowitzki TTT onyx #/50, Dontari Poe Silver auto (#/25) redemption, Dontari Poe rookie #/299
Not pictured: Braun TTT purple parallel #/650, CarGo TTT purple parallel #/650, several TTT base

Nick

NickM

I did 3 more ebay breaks in the last couple days.
I was in a 6-box 2013 Bowman Draft BB break last night - I had one of the weakest (and cheapest) teams. I didn't watch the break, but I'm basically paying shipping and there will be some base cards (which most breakers don't read out loud because that would make breaks drag on). I was also in a 3-box 2013 Topps Chrome FB break - I had 2 teams that have high rookie content and went cheaply. Both did pretty well for me - one had a veteran black refractor (I think #/299) and the other had a die-cut rookie insert (1 per box) to go with lots of base cards from both teams (rookies are base in this set) and I think a regular refractor or two.
I went in today on a 1-box break of 2013 Tier One BB with a high-content team that went cheaply. This set is one of those that gives breaking the image of gambling - most boxes have 3 cards (2 autos and 1 relic). I got the Reds for under $3. I got nothing in the break. The box actually had 2 relics, making it 4 cards in total. The hits went to 3 different teams (Padres auto, Giants auto, Giants relic, and Red Sox relic) - I was underbidder on all 3. I was very pleased with the breaker though, as they did two randomized giveaways of nice relic cards to break participants as well. I didn't win either of those. When the $ at stake wouldn't buy me a large burger without using a coupon, I can live with the gambling aspect of breaking.

Nick

NickM

I bought 4 teams in a 6-box 2013 Bowman Chrome BB break - all of them looked to either have strong base/refractor or strong auto content, and the price was good (just under $40). I hit a colored refractor (purple I think) as well as two of the 1-per-box inserts (a mini and a rookie reprint), and several refractors, as well as a bunch of base cards. While I did OK within the context of the break, I don't think I'll touch this set again. With normally 1 auto per box (one had a 2nd auto, a refractor parallel), and only 2 refractors total numbered to less than 199 among the 6 boxes (both were veterans who aren't major stars), the value isn't there on this product for most boxes.

I'm also in heavy in the blowoutcards 20-case Topps Chrome FB player auction - 30 players will be coming my way, with roughly 100 total cards per player, after the cases get broken. I may be selling some large base lots.

And I bought 6 different gambling box breaks at roughly $3 each - 2 from Tier One BB, 2 from Panini Crusade BK, and 2 from 2013 Certified FB. The Crusade and Certified don't ship the base cards, but that's a negligible part of the value on the Crusade teams, and I got two of the highest value teams in Certified (lots of auto/relic hits and rookies), which generally sell high in breaks.

Nick

tmgrnzx9r

Nick,
Did u get some good deals on the 20 case of chrome football?

NickM

I got some great deals. My top cost for a player was $16 (not counting shipping), which I spend on Stedman Bailey (RC) and Dez Bryant. I got several guys as cheap as $4 (not that most of them are popular, but how could I pass up that kind of shot at a Superfractor for the price), and some HOF types (Polamalu, Jared Allen, Antonio Gates) in the $10 range. Decent name rookies included Eric Fisher, Gavin Escobar, Damontre Moore, Alec Ogletree, David Amerson, and Datone Jones.

I'll be making a FS/FT post on the BST board and Blowout's board after I get the stuff in. I don't need 90 base of anyone.

Nick

NickM

Case 1 of the 20-case break opened. I lucked into a 1/1 - though it was a printing plate (D.J. Fluker rookie), not a Superfractor. I hit some other colored refractors (including a gold #/50 of Chance Warmack rookie) and I'm sure quite a number of standard refractors and base cards. Very nice start for me.

Meanwhile, several break purchases arrived.

My Bowman Draft buy of the Brewers ended up being 3 Bowman Draft each of Gennett and Hellweg, 2 Bowman Chrome Draft of Gennett, and 1 Bowman Chrome Draft of Hellweg. For $3.06 shipped, not too bad. I'm high on Gennett as a prospect, and these are his official rookie cards according to Beckett.

Triple Threads and Chrome FB will get a separate post, because they will have pictures coming.

Nick

NickM

My gambling breaks did not work out well. Tier One was ridiculous - all 3 cards were from the same team (Red Sox). It wasn't one of my teams (Reds and Tigers). For Crusade, I believe I got one of the Crusade inserts, but that box was pretty bad in terms of value. For Certified, it was a good box for value, but my teams (Chargers and Bengals) got skunked.

So much for almost $20.

Nick

NickM

Bought a team in a 9-box Triple Threads break for just over $30. Hit a nice auto triple relic of a star. It actually sells for around $30 on ebay.
I'm very glad I got outbid on every other team I bid on there. Several that usually do ok had no hits, and one that normally has several hits got 1 relic card. Meanwhile, one of the worst value teams (not that many hits, and most are unpopular/lousy players) hit a White Whale 1/1 and two other low value teams did very well (one had a patch /3 and the other had 2 hits, including a HOFer relic.). People were seriously overpaying for teams based on hit averages, and the break chat included people talking about having bought low-value teams in this break because they had monster hits in recent breaks. Those teams got skunked. It's a ridiculous way to buy into breaks IMO because it's entirely divorced from value.
I also bought a team in an upcoming break of a not-yet-released FB set that should be a very high value team and that I think was underpriced.
Meanwhile, my players in the 20-case Chrome FB break are doing quite well overall. I got another gold refractor #/50 - Eric Fisher RC. Through 7 cases, I believe I have 4 or 5 colored refractors already of some players (including some of my cheapest slots).

Nick


[edited for typos]

NickM

Got a good price on the Raiders in a 6-box 2013 Absolute FB ebay break (opening bid of $11.99 including shipping, and they're one of the highest hit potential teams in the set). Flopped miserably - 2 cheap insert cards and nothing else.

At least my Topps Chrome slots are doing well for me - one player had 4 different colored refractors in one case alone. Granted, it was Santonio Holmes, but it's still very nice to get.

Meanwhile, for upcoming breaks, I've purchased a team in a Triple Threads BB break (direct sale), a bunch of teams in 6-box Totally Certified FB breaks (mostly from ebay), and one in a 6-box Totally Certified BK break (ebay). All were based on likely hit projections for the price. Should have bid more on a couple other FB teams where I was the underbidder, but oh well.

Nick

NickM

Watched my Totally Certified ebay breaks. I did quite well in BK within the context of the break - 2 veteran autos from my team, but it was a brutal break overall. No green #/5, no HOFer autos or GU, and only 1 lottery pick auto. For 6 boxes, that's awful.

I had 4 teams in FB, and my cheapest one did the best. 2 rookie autos (same player on both) and 2 jerseys (same player on both) will do that. I had rookie autos from 2 of the other 3 teams (one is a redemption) and a gold #/25 from the last team. Two of the big hits from the break (arguably the 2 biggest) were redemptions. That's rather disappointing.

I think I overvalued both Totally Certified products based on release price. I expect football to drop substantially, and basketball to crash. Valuewise, I wouldn't make my money back if I tried to resell, but if you compare it to buying packs, my break purchases went well.

Nick

NickM

I've kept going on Totally Certified FB, with pretty good results.
Stuck with the team I had purchased twice before (one of those breaks hasn't happened yet) for a third break, and hit a red parallel of a top tier rookie as well as one of his auto relics (though it's a redemption). Meanwhile, the detailed hits checklist got posted at Group Break Checklists, and I found out that while my calculation of rookie value was right on, that team was middle of the pack on overall hits, as its veteran hit content was very low.
I grabbed the team that I now consider by far the best overall in this product in another 6-box break, and got 5 hits, including 2 different auto relic cards of the same rookie (plus a rookie relic, a veteran relic, and a veteran auto, though a weak one). I also grabbed another team in a different 6-box break that was cheap for the expected value, and got 3 veteran jerseys and a rookie auto.
The breaker on the last one is annoying in the video (too much pitchman), but I'm buying card value, and getting my share.
I haven't had any of the monster hits I've seen over 24 boxes (including 2 HOF autos and a 1/1 rookie auto), but I'm well ahead of what you could expect for your money if buying packs.

I've also jumped into a high-risk break - Flawless BK. I found a seriously underpriced team for a 1-box break. It ended up going for considerably less than expected value (even accounting for the fact that it has only about a 1 in 3 chance of hitting anything).

Nick

3BoyzTrading

<< <i>I've also jumped into a high-risk break - Flawless BK. I found a seriously underpriced team for a 1-box break. It ended up going for considerably less than expected value (even accounting for the fact that it has only about a 1 in 3 chance of hitting anything). >>


Flawless is one of the best products released this year. The low numbering, the two rookie classes and the autograph checklist is rather solid. It also has jumbo patch insert set. I'm a fan of the base cards only because precious gems are a rather unique idea for a baes set. I've also taken part in a few but prefer the hit method. I just cant deal with paying high prices and get nothing in return. In the hit breaks, you can pull a rookie auto or jumbo patch later in the draft with potential. Let us know what you pull if anything.

NickM

3Boyz - I don't like hit drafts or randoms, because I'd be relying completely on luck. You can't get into a hit draft on Flawless for less than about $150, and I expect it has gone up from there. I paid less than $20 for my slot.
I'd be bothered much more by dropping $150 in a hit draft and getting a bad slot (hello, choice between Tyson Chandler auto and Josh Smith auto) than by getting nothing for my $20.

My TTT break happened yesterday. Got a decent auto triple relic. The other teams I usually focus on for value potential all did well in that break (one got a White Whale among its 3 hits, and all had hits), but the breaker's price was higher than I had been willing to pay. The breaker also did 4 giveaways to people who had slots, but I didn't win any. I've found TTT break prices on ebay have been going steadily higher, even as more and more low end hits sell for under $5. So I've been supplementing my collection with a few more hits cheaply as I go. I expect that this product will seriously dry up before long on ebay. Player collectors would be well advised not to wait too long.

3BoyzTrading

NickM, thanks for sharing, I'm considering sharing a few of my breaks on this forum as well. Most are in the hit/player draft realm in baseball. I understand what you mean by putting up $150 in a lottery of sorts. The last two breaks I've taken part in cost about $210 a slot. I was originally opposed to paying that much but I may never see these Flawless case breaks again. The product is drying up everywhere. I understand what you mean by the less popular player autographs being a hit but many come from inserts sets that have high potential . The dual auto patches and the jumbo patches come to mind. When it comes breaks, it seems we have opposite philosophies. I would rather spend money on a guaranteeed hit than any amount on just a chance.

NickM

I refer to my philosophy as Moneyballing breaks. I try to buy what's undervalued. Sometimes I'm lucky and it works very well. My Triple Threads 1/1s are the best examples of that.

It means I avoid some sets entirely. Strata looks like it will be one of those. Way too rookie-focused for the hits, and with this rookie class, we're talking about getting $5 hits for $30.

My Flawless break was postponed to the weekend due to the case not yet arriving to the breaker. I bought a slot in a new BK product for a fairly cheap price - I hate guessing at proper pricing when there is no checklist available. It breaks tomorrow.

I have a whole bunch of pictures to put up (probably tomorrow) from cards that arrived in the mail.

For Totally Certified FB, the team I now consider best is the Cowboys. I paid under $30 for the 6-box slot. I got two different auto relic cards of Gavin Escobar, a Joseph Randle relic, a Sean Lee auto, and a DeMarco Murray relic, plus an Escobar base rookie and a lot of other base cards. My Redskins slot in another break was $17. A RGIII Thanksgiving Day Blue parallel /99, a Chris Thompson rookie (redemption), a DeAngelo Hall jersey, and 2 Ryan Kerrigan jerseys (and one base card) were the result.

Now I just need Escobar to start playing.

Nick

LarkinCollector

<< <i>Now I just need Escobar to start playing.

Nick >>


Monday was a good sign with Escobar getting more receiving yards than Dez & Witten combined. He's on my sleeper list for next year.

NickM

Timeless Treasures was a dud. Nothing for my team (Grizzlies) in the 5 boxes. Only out 8 bucks and change though, and I know to avoid this set for any team that doesn't have big rookie value. Veteran value is poor. Any actually desirable autos are seriously shortprinted.

Got my other outstanding Totally Certified FB packages in. The break where I had 4 teams - they were the Steelers, Cardinals, 49ers, and Bears. Total cost was a little over $75. The Steelers had a Roethlisberger gold /25 and a Landry Jones RC, but it was a bad break for them. The Cards gave me a Minter auto redemption (probably /499). The 49ers gave me 2 Patton rookies and a Cornelius Carradine auto /499 - he signs just his nickname Tank. The Bears saved the break for me - 2 Jon Bostic autos /499, 2 Lance Briggs jerseys /299, and a Brandon Marshall blue parallel /99.
Another Steelers spot from a TC break arrived, which was a lot better - rookies of Landry Jones, Bell, and Wheaton, a red parallel of Bell, and a Bell Freshman Fabric Auto Red redemption (I think #/299). For about $27, not terribly bad. Barring injuries, Bell should be a solid RB for quite a while and rack up lots of TDs.

My gambling break (6 different 1-box teams) card arrived - an Andre Miller Crusade insert. I do a lot better when I buy into larger breaks. My Absolute break also arrived. $12 for the Raiders, who have a lot of rookie value in the set. Unfortunately, all I got was 2 Hogg Heaven inserts (McFadden and Tyler Wilson).

Nick

NickM

Picked up two cheap teams in a 6-box 2013 Topps Chrome FB break and a top team in a 6-box 2013 Totally Certified FB break (from the same seller) today. One of the Chrome teams didn't appear to yield anything more special than regular refractors, but the other had multiple inserts, including a very tough numbered insert - of a lousy player.
The Totally Certified break was disappointing, with only 2 jersey hits, but not too bad for the price. There were 2 of the same multiplayer jersey card pulled, so rather than random both between me and the guy who had the other team, he allocated one to each team. I'm fine with that. I know I got a bunch of base and at least one parallel, but I may have missed rookies or other parallels.

Nick

NickM

I bought a cheap team ($6 total) in a 2-box Bowman Sterling FB ebay break. Did all right - a base rookie and a low numbered parallel of the same player. Someone else with a cheap team hit it big - a Superfractor rookie auto.

Bought 9 teams (about $90 total) in a 6-box Totally Certified FB ebay break. Had a mix of strong and weak teams, but each at a decent to great price. The normally great team did lousy - 1 jersey, at least 1 rookie, and some parallels plus base, but other teams made up the slack. I believe I hit 4 autos, 10 jerseys, and a quad jersey (2 different teams, but no random, because both teams were mine), in addition to at least 1 blue #/99, several reds, several rookies, and a lot of base. The break had some huge hits (a dual HOFer jersey, a decent rookie gold #/25, a veteran patch gold #/25, 2 Team Panini Signature Materials [one Prime #/10 and the other a redemption #/25], and 2 star gold rookie patch autos #/25), but none of those were mine. I'm still very happy with my results. I got 2 boxes worth of hits plus some, for less than the cost of one box.

Nick

NickM

I got an ebay email on my Flawless break that something came up and it will be on Monday evening instead of Sunday because something came up. Not that big of a deal. Things happen.
Except on Monday I get a PayPal refund with no explanation.
Lots of people left him negatives. I think I'll just skip leaving feedback on this one.
Too bad. I had the Nuggets, and paid only $19.50 for the spot. They're in the top 10 in total hit quantity in Flawless.

Nick

NickM

I'll catch up on some pictures here.
First has the Padres from a break a month ago where I got an auto relic (Gyorko /99) and an auto triple relic (Cashner (/50), as well as a Gwynn purple /650 and a Gwynn base (not in the picture) and the Diamondbacks from a break a few weeks ago where I got a nice auto triple relic (Goldschmidt 18/18). [I paid in the low 20s for the Padres slot, and $30 for the Diamondbacks.] Oddly enough, I saw the White Whale of that Goldschmidt pulled a week later in another break where I passed on the Diamondbacks because of how much the breaker wanted for them.


Second has the Topps Chrome FB best cards from a break a month ago where I had the Dolphins and Cardinals - pictured are a Dion Jordan die-cut, Jordan and Mike Gillislee 1986 inserts, Andre Ellington 1959 mini insert, Patrick Peterson black refractor /299, and Tyrann Mathieu and Kevin Minter refractors. Not pictured are 20 base cards, including 3 each of several rookies. [I paid about $11 for both teams.]


Third has the Redskins from a Totally Certified break two weeks ago. Pictured are Chris Thompson auto redemption (probably #/499), RGIII Thanksgiving Day Blue /99, 2 Ryan Kerrigan Red jerseys /299, and DeAngelo Hall Blue jersey /99. Not pictured - a base card.


Fourth has the Cowboys from another break at about the same time. Pictured are a Gavin Escobar rookie, Joseph Randle Rookie Roll Call jersey (it's tape on the toploader) /299, Escobar Certified Future auto jersey /149, DeMarco Murray Red jersey /299, Sean Lee Red auto /99, and Escobar Freshman Fabric auto jersey /299, plus 14 base cards that aren't pictured.


Fifth has the Knicks from my foray into Totally Certified BK. I think I paid about $13 including shipping. Pictured are autos of Mel Davis and Leonard "Truck" Robinson, as well as rookies of Tim Hardaway Jr. and C.J. Leslie. Not pictured are 2 base cards.


Sixth is the Bears from my 4-team break of Totally Certified FB. Pictured are 2 Lance Briggs Red jerseys /299, 2 Jon Bostic autos /499, and a Brandon Marshall Blue /99. Not pictured are 4 base cards.


Seventh are the other 3 teams from that break - Cardinals, 49ers, and Steelers. Pictured are a Kevin Minter auto redemption (probably #/499), Cornelius Carradine auto /499 (he signs his nickname Tank), Roethlisberger Gold 13/25, 2 Quinton Patton rookies, 2 Landry Jones rookies, and a Stepfan Taylor rookie. Not pictured are 3 base cards. I paid around $75 for the teams in pictures 6 and 7. I had overvalued some teams.


Eighth is the Steelers from a break a couple weeks ago. Paid about $28 for them. Pictured are a LeVeon Bell Freshman Fabric Red auto jersey redemption (probably #/299), a Bell Red, and rookies of Bell, Landry Jones, and Markus Wheaton. Not pictured is a base card.


Meanwhile, I'm waiting on the USPS for my massive Chrome FB player lots - 30 players, well over 2500 cards. Highlights of that included a printing plate (Fluker), red refractor /25 (Warmack), and 4 gold refractors /50. I averaged over 5 colored refractors per player, with Santonio Holmes having 10.

The first Steelers break I'm in still hasn't happened. The breaker needs to come off his prices substantially to sell some of the remaining teams.

Nick


[edited to add text]

NickM

I bought a team in a 9-box ebay Triple Threads baseball break from one seller, and a different team in a similar break from another seller. Did fine in the first break - an auto relic and a relic. Had I gotten that team for the second break, I would have come away with a 1/1 auto triple relic, but I was outbid for it. My team in the second break had a nice auto relic. It didn't show up until near the end of the case, so I was sweating it out for a while.

And the Totally Certified break is still waiting to sell out. 4 teams left, and it's past time for him to either do a substantial price drop or eat those teams.

Nick

NickM

The Totally Certified break that had been waiting for too long finally happened. Some rookies, including a good parallel /99, but no hits. It was a monster break for several other teams, including a HOF auto /15, a triple patch /25, and 3 auto relics of the same star rookie (the team with the triple rookie hit also had an Emerald parallel /5). I paid $30. I probably overvalued the team by about $8-$10 when I did so. Not a great result, but there were a bunch of teams that did far worse.
And then I screwed up. I bid on a 3-box Triple Threads football break in the last minute as if it were a 9-box break. I had a brain freeze. For $43.50, I got . . . a base card parallel /99. It would have been a very good price for that team on a 9-box break. For a 3-box break, my value estimates would be about a third of that at most.
I'll have a bunch of pictures from recent maildays to post tomorrow.

Nick

lahmejoon

This is a fun thread. Thanks for sharing!

NickM

All 5 pictures are from the Totally Certified break where I had 9 teams: Cowboys, Chiefs, Redskins, Dolphins, Ravens, Titans, Panthers, Texans, and Falcons. Texans and Falcons came up totally dry - nothing at all for the Falcons and one base card for the Texans. Luckily both were cheap, as were some of the teams with big hits. Not pictured: a total of 50 base cards (even when the Cowboys have almost no hits, they have a ton of base due to the Thanksgiving Day subset being heavily weighted toward them).
Picture 1: 5 rookies (Joseph Randle, Knile Davis, Justin Hunter, and 2 Mike Gillislee)


Picture 2: Blue Tannehill /99, and 3 Reds (Newton, Alfred Morris, and Aikman Thanksgiving Day)


Picture 3: Red jerseys of Haloti Ngata, London Fletcher, Kendall Wright, Jake Locker, DeAngelo Hall, and DeMarcus Ware (all /299)


Picture 4: jerseys of Brian Hartline Red /299, Brian Hartline Blue /99, Cam Newton Blue /99, Ray Rice Stitches in Time /299, and a Stitches in Time Quad Jersey of Jamaal Charles, Derrick Johnson, Alfred Morris, and Brian Orakpo /299


Picture 5: 2 Aaron Mellette autos /499, redemptions for Kenjon Barner auto (probably /499) and Justin Hunter Certified Future Signature Materials auto relic (probably /149)


Seeing a quad jersey come up and realizing you don't have to worry about a random because you have both teams is a very nice feeling.

Not a bad haul for about $90.

Nick


edited to fix picture
edited again to correct numbering

3BoyzTrading

Some nice hits in football. I just bought in a big Topps Chrome one. It's a player draft so I'm looking forward to hitting a few PC players and a handful of rookies. If you have any Chiefs cards you're looking to part with, let me know and we can work something out.

NickM

TomB's break on BO?
I don't like hit drafts much (again, too much reliance on luck for your spot in the random), but after what I saw in earlier draft breaks there, I got into the backup spot line because I saw some opportunities. There weren't enough nonpayers to get to me.

I bought the Rays and Braves and all base (i.e., regular Bowman Draft) in a 1 jumbo case break of 2013 Bowman Draft/Bowman Chrome Draft auctioned on BO, and flipped the Rays before the break for a profit that effectively left the Braves as free to me. I paid $65 for the base. I was set to go after the base in another break (2 cases this time), but my bid of $80 was sniped by a bid of $88, and my return snipe of $100 came in just a few seconds too late to count. No idea what I got from the Braves (they have no autos in the set), but I have a large quantity of base coming - based on gross numbers, more than 4 base sets worth if perfect collation, and base sets are selling on ebay for $20 regularly.

Nick

3BoyzTrading

Nice pick up on the base cases. That's another great thing about the case breakers. I actually had one of them offer to send my nephew a base case of Topps Chrome for just the cost of shipping. I didn't get the address in time but it was a nice gesture.

I've also realized with a high draft pick, you can also break even or better when offereing them up for sale. I'm not one to sell at all but it's becoming more tempting when I end up with a pick that is too high for the player I was originally targeting.

NickM

I ended up missing out entirely on another Bowman Draft 2-case break auction on BO, and the base lot went for only $75.

I've bought in a few spots so far from the 5-case Topps Chrome FB break, and am hopeful of adding more.

Here are pictures from recent mail arrivals:

Picture 1 is an Jedd Gyorko auto triple relic /50 from a Triple Threads break where I got the Padres for $20 (not pictured is a Gwynn base) and the results from having the Giants for $6 in a Bowman Sterling break - Damontre Moore base rookie and parallel /75.


Picture 2 is the Raiders and Falcons hits from a 6-box Topps Chrome break - after splitting up combined shipping, I paid $12.90 for the teams (not pictured are 6 Raiders and 15 Falcons base cards) - 3 refractors from the Falcons, 3 Tyler Wilson inserts, and a Tyler Wilson die-cut prism 1986 insert /50.

Picture 3 is the Cowboys result from a 6-box Totally Certified break - I paid $27 for them after splitting up combined shipping. Not pictured are 11 base cards. Pictured are Stitches in Time Demarco Murray jersey /299, Jason Witten/Jimmy Graham Stitches in Time dual jersey /299 (this is the card that 2 were hit of in the break, so 1 was allocated to each team), and Miles Austin Red.


Someday when they're both in the HOF, that Witten/Graham will be looked on as a really nice card.

If you looked at what you could expect from buying that amount of packs, I did quite well. If you look at ebay sales prices, I didn't (possible exception for the Damontre Moore parallel, which could sell high on a BIN after a big game in the future).

Nick


edited to correct name of player

NickM

I ended up being able to buy 11 spots in the 5-case Topps Chrome FB player draft break (it will actually be 5 cases plus 10 more boxes). From 223 spots, I had numbers 80, 141, 142, 154, 157, 158, 188, 201, 203, 206, and 215. I paid considerably less than original spot pricing for the spots (as you'd expect for primarily low-end spots). I was sweating bullets for a number of picks on my first spot, as after Luke Joeckel and D.J. Hayden were taken at #73 and #74, there was only one decent rookie auto possibility left IMO - Bjoern Werner. Luckily, he fell to my spot. My other players, in spot order, are Sharrif Floyd, Kevin Minter, Steve Smith, Datone Jones, Xavier Rhodes, David Amerson, Johnathan Hankins, Carson Palmer, Antonio Gates, and Greg Jennings. 9 of the 11 are superfractor possibilities. The actual break won't happen until next weekend.

I also bought the base lot in a 2 jumbo case Bowman Draft break for $90. Between that and the 1-case base lot, I will be putting together a bunch of base sets.

Meanwhile, while I was paying attention to the Chrome FB draft, a Flawless BK break auction closed that I had bid on a couple teams in to mark the break and was going to come back and put in my max bids on any teams I found worthwhile at the price.
Well, it turns out I won one team for an unbelievably low price - but every team went for an unbelievably low price. The seller didn't even gross $400 for the box! That break will be tonight.

A couple maildays arrived, and I'll be posting pictures.

I realized that I haven't posted pictures yet from the Bowman Chrome BB break - the cards arrived quite a while ago.

I'm still sorting everything from the 20-case Topps Chrome FB player auction. I did find I hit 1 veteran variation (Dez Bryant) - those fall around 1 per case, and I had only 2 players with variation possibilities.

Nick

NickM

The Flawless break happened. I didn't hit anything. Overall, it was a low value box, though full of what would be great cards if it weren't for the price point: Brook Lopez base, Bird auto, Olajuwon auto, Greg Monroe jumbo patch, Jonas Valanciunas jumbo patch /5, Grant Hill (Clippers) auto /10, Tony Parker auto, Jamaal Wilkes patch auto, Sleepy Floyd patch auto, Kidd-Gilchrist auto.
I had the Nuggets, and paid under $10.

Nick

NickM

Picture 1 is a Paul Goldschmidt auto jumbo relic /50, a Casey Kelly jumbo relic /27, and a Jedd Gyorko auto jumbo relic /50 from my last Triple Threads breaks. Not pictured is a Gwynn base. The Diamondbacks cost me $22.50. The Padres cost me under $19. I'll take those results any day.


Picture 2 is the results for breaks that weren't as good. My screwup with Triple Threads football netted me a LeSean McCoy gold paralllel/99 for $43.50, and paying $30 for the Steelers (this was before the full checklist was out, and rookie value was all I was going on) got me rookies of Landry Jones and Markus Wheaton, a Wheaton Red parallel, and a Le'Veon Bell Blue parallel /99 (there were no base cards). I overpaid for the team, and it was a disappointing result, but at least I ended up with one very nice card out of it (Bell reminds me a lot of Bettis).


Nick

NickM

Bought a high-value team for $50 in a full case (8 box) 2013-14 Dominion Hockey break (direct from website). Got 2 redemptions of the same rookie - both are patch autos (to different numbers). The player is a very good prospect. Current ebay value on the cards is in the $25-30 range, but I'm fine with the results (a box of Dominion sells for $180 and up and has 6 cards - 4 hits and 2 base).

Nick

NickM

The Flawless breaker said in the auction that 5 cards would be coming in the mail to everyone who didn't have a hit. I was expecting junk commons, and was fine with that. Instead, I got an unopened Kobe Anthology pack.

I got in another Dominion ebay break. This one was 4 boxes. Bought a decent team at a great price (under $15).
Hit a low numbered jumbo relic. Wouldn't sell for that much, but a very nice card nonetheless. I got sniped on another team by a penny, and as it turns out, I got lucky. That team only got a base card. I don't really like this set at anything under 8-box (full case) breaks, because of how few cards are in a box.

Nick