78/79 box auction
Raulsmaster
Posts: 663 ✭✭
Huggins n Scott has an auction w/ boxes of '78 n '79 baseball that's at 1600 w/out buyers premium (18.5). It still has over 5 hours left. That's ridiculous
It never leaves you...
0
Comments
I'm glad I'm not drinking that Kool-Aid.
I'm just glad that I choose to invest my money in pre-war cards and memorabilia.
<< <i>It's crazy because your talking about 78-79 baseball cards. Those cards are so plentiful and commonplace.
I'm just glad that I choose to invest my money in pre-war cards and memorabilia. >>
You'll have to define "plentiful" and "commonplace" - in PSA 9 and PSA 10 which is what collectors of these years demand then I would suggest you actually look at the population reports. For prewar cards where any condition is fine - the comparisons then become interesting
The last 78 box I cracked I pulled about 5 gems because they are next to impossible. You're asking to lose money paying those kinds of prices
People think prices are crazy--perhaps--perhaps not
my guess however is that the OP had these boxes on the radar screen and was trying to downplay interest in them
did you win them?
<< <i>did you win them? >>
Absolutely not, I wouldn't bring attention to something I wanted to bid on. Aside from that, it's tough for me to feel good about buying 78 boxes of fb or bb when just a couple years ago I was watching them roll off at 300/350 all day and that wasn't good enough for me. Even OPC was under 200...yes about 2 years ago.
"Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." Dr. Seuss
<< <i>The material is out there. Hundreds (if not thousands) of untampered boxes and cases from the 1970's and earlier are stashed away in collections. Just because no one is selling doesn't mean the boxes aren't out there. >>
Again...it's so very convenient to take that position...you don't ever have to substantiate it, or point to who these mysterious hoarders of endless unopened cases are. Just like it would be so easy for me to say there are hundreds if not thousands of pre-war cards that have not yet been seen or will never see the light of day...I don't believe this is true, but I can say it and no one will ever be able to prove me wrong. So what we're left with is speculation...for both sides.
JHS5120 - Supply and demand is everything. There might be 2000 boxes of 1980 Topps and it might be 20000 boxes. I am a buyer if you run into any of those legit boxes that you see laying around the house.
I've heard many on this board say that the all-time highs and the amount of available inventory mean the bubble is about to burst. I'm no economist, but if both are true, shouldn't that be shaking more of this loose?
The fact that I don't see quantity freeing up, leads me to believe that the people with the hoards think there's a higher ceiling, or that there isn't much of a hoard left anymore...(20 guys with a box each is a far cry from 1 guy with an unopened case)
Or it's out there, but not for sale, and you can try to rip it from a cold dead hand sometime in the future.
Prices have gotten high enough that I do need to check myself frequently, but if prices drop even a little or the bubble burst altogether, I'll be a heavier buyer, and so will many of you I assume...so how long will they stay low?
<< <i>SayHeyKids- How is your investments treating you in prewar? I bet you are upside down on your investment, however a person in unopened material is way up. Sorry you missed the boat. >>
The truth is I've done extremely well with my Pre-war investments. The last 2-3 years have been FANTASTIC.
I know one thing for sure I would much rather own one RARE mid-quality 1912 Ty Cobb Hassan Triple folder than a couple boxes of 1978-79 Topps.
<< <i>
<< <i>SayHeyKids- How is your investments treating you in prewar? I bet you are upside down on your investment, however a person in unopened material is way up. Sorry you missed the boat. >>
The truth is I've done extremely well with my Pre-war investments. The last 2-3 years have been FANTASTIC.
I know one thing for sure I would much rather own one RARE mid-quality 1912 Ty Cobb Hassan Triple folder than a couple boxes of 1978-79 Topps. >>
To each his own. We're all collectors here and shouldn't be knocking value for any part of the hobby, imo.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>When I came back into the hobby in '07 after fifteen years away the biggest thing that had changed was the switch from quantity to quality. Gone were the 500 count investment lots. In their place was the perfectly centered, razor cornered gem 10 that allows an investor to believe their 10, the same card they have 1000 of in the closet, is an investment. I've not been able to fully appreciate this development in the hobby. Count me as one of the disbelievers, but I am not bitter that other collectors spend their money elsewhere instead of cards that I want to buy. >>
I came back around the same time after a similar break!
I was mainly interested in building a Corvette
I have been adamant that we are no way near a speculative bubble because the demand is broad and the price point that people will stop accumulating has not been reached IMO. I don't know what the ceiling is - but it is not too much higher than it is now unless there are some substantial price changes in the actual Corvettes (PSA 9s and 10s)...recently, that has been true if you look at recent prices of high end 1970s cards.
I've noticed a lot of people making comments about other sections of the hobby that they clearly have no knowledge about. Drawing comparisons between an unopened box of 1979 Topps and a card or set from pre-war is like comparing apples and Huffy bikes. I thought it was nuts when people were fabricating correlations between late-70s and mid-80s, but this new one takes the cake. I have a hard time understanding the thought process and logic used by many that appear to only be pumping a niche of the hobby that 1.) they're in possession of, and 2.) they're currently selling. While I believe the root of the 1970s explosion is probably legitimate, there's a non-zero amount of profiteering going on as well.
This, like everything else, is buyer beware.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Like anything in a free market. Supply and demand.
ebay id Duffs_Dugout
My Ebay Auctions
<< <i>Charlie Conlon had a "horde" of unopened mini cases that was speculated to be in the hundreds when he died. It turned out to be 26, only 12 of which were still sealed, along with 2+ open cases of cello. The cellos will float around indefinitely as no one will open them in the hope of grading, but the was has been steadily shredded over the last 4+ years. >>
There may have only been 26 when he died but isn't it possible he sold 50 or 100 cases to a dealer a month earlier?
<< <i>
<< <i>Charlie Conlon had a "horde" of unopened mini cases that was speculated to be in the hundreds when he died. It turned out to be 26, only 12 of which were still sealed, along with 2+ open cases of cello. The cellos will float around indefinitely as no one will open them in the hope of grading, but the was has been steadily shredded over the last 4+ years. >>
There may have only been 26 when he died but isn't it possible he sold 50 or 100 cases to a dealer a month earlier? >>
Highly unlikely, imo, as his family consigned his entire collection to REA upon his death in one fell swoop, and at that time publicly stated that was the entire extent of the collection. In fact, iirc, they were criticized at the time for selling everything at once, as some were recommending that they parcel out the cases in increments, but they decided to sell everything at once ultimately and all of it through REA. I've never heard or seen any evidence that Conlon himself sold anything to anyone, especially anything in any appreciable quantity and imo if he had, we'd have heard about it by now.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>I've never heard or seen any evidence that Conlon himself sold anything to anyone, especially anything in any appreciable quantity and imo if he had, we'd have heard about it by now. >>
I was under the impression that Steve had access to Conlon's minis for many years. Is that incorrect?
<< <i>There's another element to this equation that doesn't get discussed here (and I doubt will to much extent). Now, I'm not sure that what's going on with 70s unopened is a bubble -- the 80s, on the other hand, is an entirely different conversation -- but whether people want to admit it or not, it's a very small contingent of the hobby that's driving these prices up. I realize that most here on CU only post or read CU and so it can seem like what's happening is a hobby-wide explosion. But the truth is, CU is a very small fraction of the hobby as a whole. On top of that, this is pretty much THE board for post-1970/pre-1995 sportscard collecting. There are many other hobby boards with many more members that CU, as well as even more members of the hobby that don't even post on or read hobby message boards. None of this unopened craze is occurring on any of the other boards. There's no discussion about it, even in the subforums of the other boards that cater toward 1970s/1980s baseball cards. As I mentioned previously, I don't believe that the 1970s activity is a bubble but there's no denying that this is a phenomenon occurring in just a small fraction of the hobby collective. That's an important piece of information that seems to get overlooked.
I've noticed a lot of people making comments about other sections of the hobby that they clearly have no knowledge about. Drawing comparisons between an unopened box of 1979 Topps and a card or set from pre-war is like comparing apples and Huffy bikes. I thought it was nuts when people were fabricating correlations between late-70s and mid-80s, but this new one takes the cake. I have a hard time understanding the thought process and logic used by many that appear to only be pumping a niche of the hobby that 1.) they're in possession of, and 2.) they're currently selling. While I believe the root of the 1970s explosion is probably legitimate, there's a non-zero amount of profiteering going on as well.
This, like everything else, is buyer beware. >>
To the negative trolls,
please allow me to educate you one final time.
1. Segmentation: Your comments about a narrow segment for unopened is true but so what? The entire hobby is BASED on narrow segmentation. No one, just collects baseball cards as an entire entity so of course there are narrow niches from pre-war, to post-war, to raw, to PSA to unopened, to current etc..and of course the niche for 1970s unopened is narrow. What is your point?
2. Pre-post WWII comparisons are not Huffy bikes and apples: More like caviar and chicken eggs...we are still talking baseball cards correct? I like Tim's constant and repetitive reply that we should not ridicule what one wishes to collect and IMO people who look down on others just show their own level of arrogance. Yah, I'd like to collect high end T206s but my budget can't afford it, thus, it makes me foolish to collect 1970s? I despise people like that to be honest.
3. 1970s. You consistently follow my comments with veiled accusations of people "pumping" and "profiteering." DJF at least is just a pure skeptic. You, however, consistently throw these comments about selfish intentions out there. If you look back carefully over the past 3 years two people have been claiming that 1970s stuff is drying up: Tim and myself. Our claims occurred while prices were substantially lower - we have both accumulated some supply; we have both ripped a large part of what we acquired rather than try to resell it. Tim is more of a trader, I am more of just a collector. I stopped ripping when I realized that I would not be able to replace the last remaining supply I had easily. Honestly, it would have been in our self-interest to keep our mouths shut and buy buy buy. If we were wrong then these price increases should have unleashed the supposed massive hordes on ebay and auctions houses...nope. Today there are many buyers and not much supply. So with 1970s you were wrong - case closed. Own it.
4. Intent of 1980s discussion. There is no one touting 1980s stuff IMO, here, with the intent of "profiteering" For example, IMO Mygotta has always just said it is a budget issue. The posters have always distinguished between 1980-85 versus 1986 on. There is no doubt of the HUGE supply of 1986+ inventory; there has been NO talk of price increases there. So let's talk about 1980-85. The comments have always been that we don't know. Therefore, we are all speculating correct? Those that speculate that it may go up are just taking one side, they are not by definition trying to somehow "manipulate" others for personal gain. It is tiring to read an assumption that speculating positively means that one is a ill-intentioned profiteer. For example, I mentioned that I believe 1978-79 unopened is harder to find and then I have to have 2 trolls investigate the fact that I buy 1979 racks. DUH. So this means I MUST be buying these racks, coming here to tout them to the small number (your words) of people who actually read and post here with the intention of duping them into buying these cards for whatever profit I can generate. Okay, two can play at this game. I have never read a response to the constant naysayers challenging their intent but you can be negative for different reasons no? 1. You honestly think it is a bubble and that there is more supply then we realize. 2. You are just a big pile of sour grapes whining because you missed the boat. 3. You are one of those people who are angry because you cant buy what you want at the price you want and just pout.
5. Logic of 1980s. So here is my logic to have bought 1980s recently. This is the last time I am posting this because to be frank I am tired of this "groundhog" day response. As all of us, I could have bought MUCH more 1970s stuff but missed the boat and am now punished to having to pay 75-100+ for 1979 racks when I could have gotten them much cheaper before. So, I give my congrats to BBG for quietly buying and ripping for his 1978 and 1979 collection. I would love nothing more than to be able to buy 1978 racks cheap, but it isn't reality so I have to man-up. Now with 1980-85 who knows? I tend to believe as you imply that there is still a large supply both sitting and hoarded. So what? If I am wrong and there is much more, it is not like I am buying in at a high price. So I pay 50.00 for a 1981 box of fleer - how much can I really lose here? And the intent is to rip it and build a high end perfect PSA set. So I'd rather pay 50.00 per box now than 100.00 later correct? If I am wrong and it stays at 50.00 6 years later. What is the big deal? I hardly expect to see the price go down to 25.00 6 years from now because they aren't printing more of these boxes. Therefore, IMO there is virtually NO downside now. If I have extra money to spend, why not buy 1980-85? I'm one of those that intend to rip away someday.
6. Making money on 1980s. Now, let's say that I am REALLY right and in 5 years the prices of these go up like the 1970s. Well then I can "drink" these boxes like fine-wine and enjoy ripping cards that have more value. I doubt this scenario because I do believe the supply for 1980-85 is higher. But I also believe 5 years from now the prices will be higher, how much higher who knows? I recently acquired a 1980 topps vending case. I was pumped! Since, I have not seen one for sale anywhere and it took me years to finally have an opportunity to buy the one I have. What if we don't see these for 5 years and the value increases substantially - and instead of ripping I decide to sell. So what? Isn't that the American way? Some 1980s seem much more plentiful than others, some are more popular (ie. Topps versus Donruss or Fleer). If you are smart it won't take long for you to get a more nuanced sense of 1980-85 and make smart purchases.
7. PSA registry impact on 1980-85. Here is my view of the future. The value of 1980 through 1985 unopened will be tied closely to the extent to which people decide to build high end PSA sets from these years. What I suspect might happen is that people will build PSA 10 sets with 9s being temporary fillers. Today, there is no real energy behind building these sets because the cards are so plentiful. Maybe there never will be - but that just means that people who want to rip and enjoy collecting the unopened will be able to buy cheaply in the future - so great! But if so, those that actually rip know that the conversion rate of unopened to PSA 10 is very low so you have to rip a TON of unopened to actually build a high end set. Therefore, the supply of unopened can go down drastically. This is the ONE thing I learned the past 5 years. For example, Hatch (1978) Czar (1977) and BBG (1979) went after perfect sets. They alone burned through a substantial percentage of the existing unopened population. This is important to know. There might be a ton of 1981 topps floating around but anyone who ripped a 1981 Topps vending case knows that you can go though an entire case and find almost nothing worthy of 10s and surprisingly few 9s. That is what I use in determining my purchases. If I choose to try to build a high end 1980s collection - I would have to rip literally a truck load of unopened to do it myself, correct? It is possible that is the reason behind purchases rather than trying to profiteer. But in the end, what does it matter? I am doing this for my reasons. You are giving your comments for your reason. I rather enjoy living in a world of possibilities rather than in one where you constantly try to take a huge duke in the middle of a party.
<< <i>
<< <i>I've never heard or seen any evidence that Conlon himself sold anything to anyone, especially anything in any appreciable quantity and imo if he had, we'd have heard about it by now. >>
I was under the impression that Steve had access to Conlon's minis for many years. Is that incorrect? >>
Steve has been acquiring REA cases from the Conlon collection over the years but via second hand sources. I believe Henry sold him one, too.
If he was purchasing any mini boxes prior to Conlon's death, it wasn't much as I don't recall Steve having many mini boxes in stock prior to that, going back at least to a decade earlier.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>I have been following the unopened market pretty much daily over the past 15 years, with a focus on 1970s baseball, and have had the good fortune of forging many friendships along the way, both here and in the hobby, and can state with confidence that a large segment of unopened collectors, if not an actual majority of unopened collectors, have never even heard of the CU forums. I would agree that among sports card message boards, that these forums have the most collectors of unopened product, but as much as we buy from Steve, I think he will also tell you that his biggest and best customers, the "whales" if you will, are not posting on CU, either. >>
I'll agree with grote even though my knowledge of the unopened market is not as extensive as his. I'll also agree with miniduff except to say some of those REA cello packs have been opened. Not sure
if it is a lot but some has. I'll agree with ReggieCleveland from the standpoint that yes THIS is the board that has the unopened craze and I love it! I would not expect net54 or any other board to
cater to this subject quite like here. The grass roots of the bbce pickups start here. From the CU rips to the 10% off Thanksgiving day special. When the REA stuff came to market, I could not afford
to go after the lots I wanted. I wish I knew Grote, miniduff, or cpamike better back then. I would have loved to go in on a lot. Fortunately, some of the Conlon stuff has made its way to the market
and I have been lucky to buy some. Any of the other unopened I have bought has not been for investment purposes but more for nostalgia, fun, and display. The price increases have kept my
buying in check. I'd buy some more stuff if the prices went south. I'm sure others would too. I talk to Steve and another unopened dealer in NJ from time to time. I'm pretty confident there are a lot
of unopened buyers who never heard of CU and the message boards. Don't know if they are buying as speculators, boredom, or just because they love the stuff. I'm just happy with my little collection!
aconte
<< <i>
<< <i>I have been following the unopened market pretty much daily over the past 15 years, with a focus on 1970s baseball, and have had the good fortune of forging many friendships along the way, both here and in the hobby, and can state with confidence that a large segment of unopened collectors, if not an actual majority of unopened collectors, have never even heard of the CU forums. I would agree that among sports card message boards, that these forums have the most collectors of unopened product, but as much as we buy from Steve, I think he will also tell you that his biggest and best customers, the "whales" if you will, are not posting on CU, either. >>
I'll agree with grote even though my knowledge of the unopened market is not as extensive as his. I'll also agree with miniduff except to say some of those REA cello packs have been opened. Not sure
if it is a lot but some has. I'll agree with ReggieCleveland from the standpoint that yes THIS is the board that has the unopened craze and I love it! I would not expect net54 or any other board to
cater to this subject quite like here. The grass roots of the bbce pickups start here. From the CU rips to the 10% off Thanksgiving day special. When the REA stuff came to market, I could not afford
to go after the lots I wanted. I wish I knew Grote, miniduff, or cpamike better back then. I would have loved to go in on a lot. Fortunately, some of the Conlon stuff has made its way to the market
and I have been lucky to buy some. Any of the other unopened I have bought has not been for investment purposes but more for nostalgia, fun, and display. The price increases have kept my
buying in check. I'd buy some more stuff if the prices went south. I'm sure others would too. I talk to Steve and another unopened dealer in NJ from time to time. I'm pretty confident there are a lot
of unopened buyers who never heard of CU and the message boards. Don't know if they are buying as speculators, boredom, or just because they love the stuff. I'm just happy with my little collection!
aconte >>
Well put, Tony! Had I known you back then as well as I do, we'd have split one of those smaller mini case lots! LOL!
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Great post Mintmoondog. Good luck with your collection. I wish I had some of those great minis of yours.
aconte
However, from my perspective it is the supply side of this situation that is more of the driver. Both on the retail side and the wholesale side we are just not seeing the availability of 1970s product anywhere close to where we used to see it. Dealers like BBCE can no longer get it regularly and in any significant volume. As a result, is it any surprise that when we do see a box available in an auction the numbers for it are strong?
With the 1980s product its a completely different story. Firstly, the production volumes went WAY up back then. And the 1980s product was the first "generation" of product that existed as the behavioral dynamic changed (i.e. people started putting away unopened in bulk in hopes of becoming millionaires 20+ years down the road). Fast forward to now, where we are not seeing the same absence of supply as we do with the 1970s product. 1980s products are still regularly offered for sale as full cases, multiple boxes at a time and as individual boxes.
My take on the 1980s product is that people have taken note of the strong prices paid for PSA 10 star cards and RCs and 2nd year cards from the early 1980s and are using that as a basis for justifying their asking prices for the 1980-1985 unopened product. It's much less a function of decreasing supply, as it is a function of the hype more normally seen as more and more people start jumping on during a bubble.
I can only echo Henry's comments about the 1970s unopened market. I only wish I realized what was happening to the 1970s unopened material sooner, as I would not have been as quick to rip some of the packs that I managed to acquire. Thankfully I did become aware of what was happening in enough time to be able to still find 1970s unopened items while they were still regularly available. At this point this stuff is not able to be replaced, and the opportunities to add to the collection are much less frequent.
As for the 1980-1985 period, when I see only a box here and a box there just a few times a year I will be a bit more of a believer that there is something real going on with this market. Until then, I stand by my observation that this stuff is plentiful and that it is just getting more interest as people watch prices for Henderson RCs in PSA 10 go into high earth orbit as they dream of winning the wax pack/rack pack lottery.
Dave
<< <i>Yah, I'd like to collect high end T206s but my budget can't afford it, thus, it makes me foolish to collect 1970s? >>
Your completely missing the point. My point is for the SAME amount of money I would rather own ONE rare card than a couple of unopened boxes of semi-vintage cards. The cost is not the issue. Please read my comments more carefully next time. I never indicated that the card was "high-end".
Don't make up your own quotes or assume that somebody is "arrogant" because they collect pre-war. At all levels of collecting there are different price points based on rarity and condition.
<< <i>
<< <i>There's another element to this equation that doesn't get discussed here (and I doubt will to much extent). Now, I'm not sure that what's going on with 70s unopened is a bubble -- the 80s, on the other hand, is an entirely different conversation -- but whether people want to admit it or not, it's a very small contingent of the hobby that's driving these prices up. I realize that most here on CU only post or read CU and so it can seem like what's happening is a hobby-wide explosion. But the truth is, CU is a very small fraction of the hobby as a whole. On top of that, this is pretty much THE board for post-1970/pre-1995 sportscard collecting. There are many other hobby boards with many more members that CU, as well as even more members of the hobby that don't even post on or read hobby message boards. None of this unopened craze is occurring on any of the other boards. There's no discussion about it, even in the subforums of the other boards that cater toward 1970s/1980s baseball cards. As I mentioned previously, I don't believe that the 1970s activity is a bubble but there's no denying that this is a phenomenon occurring in just a small fraction of the hobby collective. That's an important piece of information that seems to get overlooked.
I've noticed a lot of people making comments about other sections of the hobby that they clearly have no knowledge about. Drawing comparisons between an unopened box of 1979 Topps and a card or set from pre-war is like comparing apples and Huffy bikes. I thought it was nuts when people were fabricating correlations between late-70s and mid-80s, but this new one takes the cake. I have a hard time understanding the thought process and logic used by many that appear to only be pumping a niche of the hobby that 1.) they're in possession of, and 2.) they're currently selling. While I believe the root of the 1970s explosion is probably legitimate, there's a non-zero amount of profiteering going on as well.
This, like everything else, is buyer beware. >>
To the negative trolls,
please allow me to educate you one final time.
1. Segmentation: Your comments about a narrow segment for unopened is true but so what? The entire hobby is BASED on narrow segmentation. No one, just collects baseball cards as an entire entity so of course there are narrow niches from pre-war, to post-war, to raw, to PSA to unopened, to current etc..and of course the niche for 1970s unopened is narrow. What is your point?
2. Pre-post WWII comparisons are not Huffy bikes and apples: More like caviar and chicken eggs...we are still talking baseball cards correct? I like Tim's constant and repetitive reply that we should not ridicule what one wishes to collect and IMO people who look down on others just show their own level of arrogance. Yah, I'd like to collect high end T206s but my budget can't afford it, thus, it makes me foolish to collect 1970s? I despise people like that to be honest.
3. 1970s. You consistently follow my comments with veiled accusations of people "pumping" and "profiteering." DJF at least is just a pure skeptic. You, however, consistently throw these comments about selfish intentions out there. If you look back carefully over the past 3 years two people have been claiming that 1970s stuff is drying up: Tim and myself. Our claims occurred while prices were substantially lower - we have both accumulated some supply; we have both ripped a large part of what we acquired rather than try to resell it. Tim is more of a trader, I am more of just a collector. I stopped ripping when I realized that I would not be able to replace the last remaining supply I had easily. Honestly, it would have been in our self-interest to keep our mouths shut and buy buy buy. If we were wrong then these price increases should have unleashed the supposed massive hordes on ebay and auctions houses...nope. Today there are many buyers and not much supply. So with 1970s you were wrong - case closed. Own it.
4. Intent of 1980s discussion. There is no one touting 1980s stuff IMO, here, with the intent of "profiteering" For example, IMO Mygotta has always just said it is a budget issue. The posters have always distinguished between 1980-85 versus 1986 on. There is no doubt of the HUGE supply of 1986+ inventory; there has been NO talk of price increases there. So let's talk about 1980-85. The comments have always been that we don't know. Therefore, we are all speculating correct? Those that speculate that it may go up are just taking one side, they are not by definition trying to somehow "manipulate" others for personal gain. It is tiring to read an assumption that speculating positively means that one is a ill-intentioned profiteer. For example, I mentioned that I believe 1978-79 unopened is harder to find and then I have to have 2 trolls investigate the fact that I buy 1979 racks. DUH. So this means I MUST be buying these racks, coming here to tout them to the small number (your words) of people who actually read and post here with the intention of duping them into buying these cards for whatever profit I can generate. Okay, two can play at this game. I have never read a response to the constant naysayers challenging their intent but you can be negative for different reasons no? 1. You honestly think it is a bubble and that there is more supply then we realize. 2. You are just a big pile of sour grapes whining because you missed the boat. 3. You are one of those people who are angry because you cant buy what you want at the price you want and just pout.
5. Logic of 1980s. So here is my logic to have bought 1980s recently. This is the last time I am posting this because to be frank I am tired of this "groundhog" day response. As all of us, I could have bought MUCH more 1970s stuff but missed the boat and am now punished to having to pay 75-100+ for 1979 racks when I could have gotten them much cheaper before. So, I give my congrats to BBG for quietly buying and ripping for his 1978 and 1979 collection. I would love nothing more than to be able to buy 1978 racks cheap, but it isn't reality so I have to man-up. Now with 1980-85 who knows? I tend to believe as you imply that there is still a large supply both sitting and hoarded. So what? If I am wrong and there is much more, it is not like I am buying in at a high price. So I pay 50.00 for a 1981 box of fleer - how much can I really lose here? And the intent is to rip it and build a high end perfect PSA set. So I'd rather pay 50.00 per box now than 100.00 later correct? If I am wrong and it stays at 50.00 6 years later. What is the big deal? I hardly expect to see the price go down to 25.00 6 years from now because they aren't printing more of these boxes. Therefore, IMO there is virtually NO downside now. If I have extra money to spend, why not buy 1980-85? I'm one of those that intend to rip away someday.
6. Making money on 1980s. Now, let's say that I am REALLY right and in 5 years the prices of these go up like the 1970s. Well then I can "drink" these boxes like fine-wine and enjoy ripping cards that have more value. I doubt this scenario because I do believe the supply for 1980-85 is higher. But I also believe 5 years from now the prices will be higher, how much higher who knows? I recently acquired a 1980 topps vending case. I was pumped! Since, I have not seen one for sale anywhere and it took me years to finally have an opportunity to buy the one I have. What if we don't see these for 5 years and the value increases substantially - and instead of ripping I decide to sell. So what? Isn't that the American way? Some 1980s seem much more plentiful than others, some are more popular (ie. Topps versus Donruss or Fleer). If you are smart it won't take long for you to get a more nuanced sense of 1980-85 and make smart purchases.
7. PSA registry impact on 1980-85. Here is my view of the future. The value of 1980 through 1985 unopened will be tied closely to the extent to which people decide to build high end PSA sets from these years. What I suspect might happen is that people will build PSA 10 sets with 9s being temporary fillers. Today, there is no real energy behind building these sets because the cards are so plentiful. Maybe there never will be - but that just means that people who want to rip and enjoy collecting the unopened will be able to buy cheaply in the future - so great! But if so, those that actually rip know that the conversion rate of unopened to PSA 10 is very low so you have to rip a TON of unopened to actually build a high end set. Therefore, the supply of unopened can go down drastically. This is the ONE thing I learned the past 5 years. For example, Hatch (1978) Czar (1977) and BBG (1979) went after perfect sets. They alone burned through a substantial percentage of the existing unopened population. This is important to know. There might be a ton of 1981 topps floating around but anyone who ripped a 1981 Topps vending case knows that you can go though an entire case and find almost nothing worthy of 10s and surprisingly few 9s. That is what I use in determining my purchases. If I choose to try to build a high end 1980s collection - I would have to rip literally a truck load of unopened to do it myself, correct? It is possible that is the reason behind purchases rather than trying to profiteer. But in the end, what does it matter? I am doing this for my reasons. You are giving your comments for your reason. I rather enjoy living in a world of possibilities rather than in one where you constantly try to take a huge duke in the middle of a party. >>
I'm a troll? Why is it that anyone that puts forth an opinion or a perspective that differs from your own is considered a troll? I didn't mention you (I don't know you from a hole in the wall) in my post but, apparently, whatever I said struck a nerve with you.
I'm not trying to take a huge duke in the party. What I'm doing is trying to balance out the discussion a bit by providing different perspectives. Maybe you want threads where everyone just pats themselves on the back for scoring investments for cheap and how they're never going to stop going up in price. To me, that goes beyond boring and into irresponsible territory when there are so many people reading the board that believe they're reading intelligent, well thought out information. We've already had a bunch of people get burned because they got whipped up in the unopened whirlwind and jumped in face first. With the frenzy that's going on there's going to be even more people getting burned. The worst part is that we've seen so-called "well respected" members scam board members in the past and it's going to happen again in the future. My opinion is that we should do what we can to prevent an atmosphere where that happens. Is it possible to completely eliminate it? Of course not. But that doesn't mean we shouldn't exemplify a certain amount of responsibility in our posts.
I'm all for sharing collections and talking about the intricacies of unopened product. I collect unopened product. I'm having a ton of fun collecting unopened product. But what I'm not doing is touting product as get-it-now-or-miss-out investments. Are you doing this? I honestly don't know, I don't recall thinking that you did. It would probably be a good idea for people to go back and re-read the Muggyman thread every now and then. A lot of people got burned in the same frenzy that seems to be going on now. You know what happened after a few select people found out they had bad packs? They dumped them on unsuspecting members before it came out that it was all poop.
It's unfortunate that you believe I'm a troll just trying to take a duke in the party. I'm trying to provide a different perspective to those that read the board and only see the frenzy. Not sure why you or anyone else would have a problem with that. I've never purported that prices would go down or that people are stupid for collecting what they collect. In fact, in this very thread I said I believed that the activity with the 1970s wasn't a bubble. Perhaps you have my confused with someone else. I'm just shooting for fair and balanced.
If you'd like to ask me my opinion on anything I've said feel free. To be honest, I stopped reading your mammoth post at some point and couldn't keep it clear.
Great post Mintmoondog. Good luck with your collection. I wish I had some of those great minis of yours.
aconte >>
Yeah Good synopsis Moondog. You gave the "Cliff Notes" version of whats been going on here on these boards for months now.
Erik
I definitely agree that unopened is a small niche within the hobby. Each niche has its own qualities that attract its collectors. For the unopened portion, I like learning about historical aspects of how things have evolved. Plus, I like the artwork on the packaging, the types of packaging itself, and the boxes that the packs come in among other things. It has been fun learning and discovering new aspects of the sealed collecting world. I agree with mintmoondog in that I would love to collect high end things like T206 and Cracker Jacks. But, I only have so much disposable income. While I do collect some raw and PSA cards, I have chosen to focus on the the unopened part of the hobby because I want to build a nice collection of something I enjoy and is within my means. I have no idea what the supply truly is, but I am buying a substantial amount now while I can get it and while I can afford it.
Jmaciu's Collection
Obviously I respect your view and others. Certainly, dissenting views are critical in order to be better informed. There are many great people on this particular board with a lot of experience. I have learned a great deal. However, what I do not like is when people come on and use disparaging terms like "manipulating" and "profiteering" and such without any specification. Therefore, implicating anyone/everyone. If one person does wrong then by all means call them out (i.e. BBG); but we should debate the facts not the intent of the poster. Correct?
Am I over-reacting? Well, I contributed to a thread a few months ago using 1973 increases in Schmidt rookies as an example of increases in 1970s prices. Immediately, one guy goes and investigates me and declares I "bought" 3 Schmidt PSA 9s so therefore, I am shilling and trying to manipulate the market. Just absurd. I bought in at the high end, after losing on auction after auction. If anything I got shilled up, but ended up paying a price I was fine with (around 1.8K). I'm not saying that this card is going to 4K, I don't think it will at all...possibly for decades. I just reported that the cards I ended up winning cost me much more. Hell, if I was duped into overpaying then we should see many Schmidt rookies pop up now and the price decrease back to 1.3K. Several years ago, I was losing auction after auction trying to win it at 1.1-1.2K. I'll have to pony up for 1975 Brett PSA 9s sometime soon at 3x what I tried to win them at a couple years ago (I have none). I just believe that a few individuals here are misplacing their need to be investigative reporters.
EDIT: As for your introduction of 1980s, I stand by my general view: 1980-85 is more like 1976-79 (at least for Topps) than 1986-1990. The earlier years more so than the later.
With regard to the discussion, 1980 is in the 80s, but that's by far the biggest link to the sets from 81-85. '80 goes with the late 70s of we are using comparisons of the sets and especially the unopened packs.
Edit a point that was addressed....
<< <i>Reggie,
Obviously I respect your view and others. Certainly, dissenting views are critical in order to be better informed. There are many great people on this particular board with a lot of experience. I have learned a great deal. However, what I do not like is when people come on and use disparaging terms like "manipulating" and "profiteering" and such without any specification. Therefore, implicating anyone/everyone. If one person does wrong then by all means call them out (i.e. BBG); but we should debate the facts not the intent of the poster. Correct? >>
<< <i>Am I over-reacting? Well, I contributed to a thread a few months ago using 1973 increases in Schmidt rookies as an example of increases in 1970s prices. Immediately, one guy goes and investigates me and declares I "bought" 3 Schmidt PSA 9s so therefore, I am shilling and trying to manipulate the market. Just absurd. I bought in at the high end, after losing on auction after auction. If anything I got shilled up, but ended up paying a price I was fine with (around 1.8K). I'm not saying that this card is going to 4K, I don't think it will at all...possibly for decades. I just reported that the cards I ended up winning cost me much more. Hell, if I was duped into overpaying then we should see many Schmidt rookies pop up now and the price decrease back to 1.3K. Several years ago, I was losing auction after auction trying to win it at 1.1-1.2K. I'll have to pony up for 1975 Brett PSA 9s sometime soon at 3x what I tried to win them at a couple years ago (I have none). I just believe that a few individuals here are misplacing their need to be investigator reporters in training. >>
Aren't you just lumping me in with whomever did that to you in the second portion of your post?
And I assure you, the second I can get irrefutable proof it will be posted.
I like to collect. I like learning about things. But far too often here, a post is greeted with unending comments about price and value and speculation on future value. There's an awful lot of people buying things and then looking to flip it, which is fine if that's your thing but there's a lot of people posing as "collectors" hyping things up and turning around and selling. Just look at the B/S/T forum. People are buying in the group rips and then posting it for sale weeks later at a slight mark up. Those group rips have stopped being a generous offering by Steve Hart for loyal collectors and become an opportunity for the first people in on them to flip them (or try to) soon after for a profit. Like it or not, this is a community. We buy and sell and trade from each other on a vague idea of trust. That sentiment permeates throughout the board and can sometimes become the default. That's a great thing to have when there's no shady business going on. But unfortunately it's also the perfect opportunity for less-than-honest people to take advantage of others.
I don't know you MintMoondog, but I'm not a troll and I'm not an alt. I just think that all perspectives should be accounted for when we're talking about things.
The one aspect to this debate that I must claim ignorance on is that I have not lived through the previous "bubbles" and "crazes" (ie. Junior). Having said that, I don't see, at all, any craze. I don't believe we are "drinking Kool-Aid" as one individual posted. It is simple supply and demand. There have been 100s of psychology studies that found that 2 people with dissenting views can read the exact same page of information and retain and interpret the content entirely differently. I believe that is what is happening on these threads. There are 3-4 individuals who tend to take a very negative view of not only the hobby but of any thoughts of potential price increases as "shady." There are several who have been reporting on the price increases. However, I honestly do not, or have not read, posts here over the past year of people coming on like snake-oil salesmen, or proclaiming that people should roll their 401K into 1981 Topps waxboxes. You'll have to dig them up to correct me.
EDIT: To explain directly, you continually refer to people "flipping" "posing" etc every post here. To be honest, this just tires me and is so pedestrian. People are in this to make money? I believe we know that. People will tout their own purchases? I am not surprised. People have selfish motives? Yup got that. "believe me as soon as I find something out I'll report it?" Great, go at it. Now do you have something to add regarding why this is a crazed Kool-Aid drinking bubble BEYOND human greed or shady posers or is that the explanation for all price increases? Otherwise, not really interested.
Do you feel that it's a result of more unopened collectors deciding on their own that they appreciate the unopened aspect of the hobby and have joined in? Or are there simply more people looking at the price increases and seeing the tout and looking to get in while the getting's good?
I'm not being a wise arse, I'm genuinely interested in your take on this.
<< <i>Mmd, you took reggies name out of the original post and specifically stated you repsect his opinion. You then described actions of his you don't like, but not claiming he was doing it just for a rise. Can I conclude you are frustrated with him, but don't think he is staight trolling? And is not simply a troll? >>
Yes, originally I called Reggie out personally but then changed it to troll which was not associated directly at him and more toward a few others I was thinking of specifically. So if those two got mixed up then I apologize because I initially did not view Reggie as a troll. If you read many of my previous posts on other threads, you'll see certain people continually follow my comments with "shilling" "manipulating" etc. This has occurred dozens of times - so I am at an end. I really don't know what the deal is. I got back into collecting around 2006 so don't have all the deep history some of you guys do. I don't like to be attacked personally - even with veiled accusations. I do love collecting cards and talking about it. It just appears that this is the wrong forum to talk openly.
EDIT: as to your last comment Reggie, I was not an unopened collector until recently. I really have targeted PSA sets from the 1970s. Believe me, I will NEVER make money on them and will be glad to break even. I broke unopened to improve my sets and began posting about 1970s when I noticed the supply drying up. I have followed the 1975-1979 unopened very carefully over the past 6 years and perhaps only Tim and CPAMike (posters here) are more sensitive than I regarding what has been happening. I now enjoy collecting unopened as a separate collection. All my posts are based on this. I am not an alt, dealer, or even trader. I just buy cards.
<< <i>
<< <i>Yah, I'd like to collect high end T206s but my budget can't afford it, thus, it makes me foolish to collect 1970s? >>
Your completely missing the point. My point is for the SAME amount of money I would rather own ONE rare card than a couple of unopened boxes of semi-vintage cards. The cost is not the issue. Please read my comments more carefully next time. I never indicated that the card was "high-end".
Don't make up your own quotes or assume that somebody is "arrogant" because they collect pre-war. At all levels of collecting there are different price points based on rarity and condition. >>
I'll apologize after I get done drinking my Kool-Aid
<< <i>Reggie,
Having said that, I don't see, at all, any craze. I don't believe we are "drinking Kool-Aid" as one individual posted. It is simple supply and demand. >>
I don't believe it is as simple as you make it out to be. Everything, including bubbles, are based on supply and demand. The wildcard is whether the demand stems from some kind of legitimate fundamentals, or whether it stems (partially or fully) from the kind of "irrational exuberance" we've seen in past bubbles. Unfortunately, with an asset that has zero intrinsic value, it's very hard to tell the difference. The fundamentals of collectibles are based on people's emotional attachment to the asset. But when people are buying product even partly because of hype, it is not "simple supply and demand". And I do believe that is happening to some degree.
<< <i>
<< <i>Reggie,
Having said that, I don't see, at all, any craze. I don't believe we are "drinking Kool-Aid" as one individual posted. It is simple supply and demand. >>
I don't believe it is as simple as you make it out to be. Everything, including bubbles, are based on supply and demand. The wildcard is whether the demand stems from some kind of legitimate fundamentals, or whether it stems (partially or fully) from the kind of "irrational exuberance" we've seen in past bubbles. Unfortunately, with an asset that has zero intrinsic value, it's very hard to tell the difference. The fundamentals of collectibles are based on people's emotional attachment to the asset. But when people are buying product even partly because of hype, it is not "simple supply and demand". And I do believe that is happening to some degree. >>
In one way it is that simple. Gold has no intrinsic value as well. People are ALWAYS hyping gold but the market makes a broad-based decision on price. Each and every time someone comes on this board and talks about a huge hammer price on a vintage PSA card or similar product (yes, let's include wrestling cards) - I don't read the steady drumbeat of negative words like "hype" or "manipulation" I read in unopened discussions. Reggie brought up a good point that there has been a significant increase in unopened threads - is this hype or just a reflection of momentum? Hype means to purposefully promote something rather than a post-hoc reflection of the communities interest or energy level. Well, it has been numerous different people OPing these posts.
As I stated a few posts up. I am at an end posting here. I suppose for some unexplainable reason, there is some history on this board against positive commenters if we talk about unopened, but it is impossible to hype a Mantle or an Aaron card because those are more legitimate? Again, not to sound like a parrot but honestly where is the "irrational exuberance?" I can't find it. If a box of 1978 topps goes from 600 to around 1100 in 5 years, and one auction has two people probably go head-to-head at 1800 is this a bubble and irrational? Perhaps in this single case - but, the number of offerings of 1978 topps boxes has decreased DRAMATICALLY over the past 6 years, then why not simple supply and demand? Brett 1975 PSA 9s were going for 500-600 just two years ago, now it is over 1500. This card comes from the type of unopened boxes we are talking about. Look at the recent price moves of the 1979 Ozzie rookie, PSA 10s of stars, or the strong prices that low pop commons are commanding throughout the 1970s. Can't this possibly also legitimize the price movements of unopened that these cards come from? Indeed, it is complicated but why with unopened do I continually read these negative connotations and yet do not read the same negative comments for any other instance of positive gain in value?
EDIT: as a final thought I must take back one aspect, there used to be a lot of threads discussing huge prices in Probstein and PWCC auctions. The discussion then always centered around "shilling" in the end maybe the general tone of these threads are quite skeptical. I apologize for my rants.