Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Not that stuff wasn't somewhat underpriced, but there's temporary short term variance and now some panic going on.
Iinvestments don't double in price to infinity(ie this stuffs gonna crash at some point and if you know how to figure out when that will be you're brighter than I am).
Enjoy it, cool.
Buying as an investment at these prices? You're more a gambler than an investor and I'd guess its a -EV play at this point.
<< <i>Not that stuff wasn't somewhat underpriced, but there's temporary short term variance and now some panic going on.
Iinvestments don't double in price to infinity(ie this stuffs gonna crash at some point and if you know how to figure out when that will be you're brighter than I am).
Enjoy it, cool.
Buying as an investment at these prices? You're more a gambler than an investor and I'd guess its a -EV play at this point. >>
I was really just poking fun at the situation. I am going to have to admit, though, I have purchased my fair share of unopened material in the last few months. It's not that I am looking at it as an investment, but that there are things that I really want for my collection before the supplies dry up.
Buying 1979 wax boxes for four figures is likely -ev
It's a concept commonly referred to in gambling in part to account for the fluctuations that variance brings. For instance while you may win a bunch in any given session at craps, it's always a -EV play for the player...the house always has the theoretical advantage.
For any given investment, baseball cards included, there's a value ceiling that once crossed places the investment into -EV territory at that price.
I'd assert that we've gone far beyond that point with unopened from late 70's/early 80's...paticularly with 1979 and 1980 wax sold on eBay. As an aside I'd suspect some shilling as well...prices for dubious wax has exceeded BBCE pricing. It was only a year ago that I joined this site and bought a 1980 vending box on eBay at $125 that yielded a great Henderson, Smith, Rose, and Ryan.
What's changed in the past year to warrant tripling of prices?
The Unopened Market: You can't stop it, you can only hope to contain it! LOL!
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
As a diehard ripper, I have been put off myself by the recent run-up in prices. The correlation between the cost of unopened and the potential value of what is inside is growing wider and wider apart. Not to rehash an age-old argument there has to be some rational balance between risk and reward.
<< <i>Tim, you have not only contained it, you have "sealed" it. >>
LOL, I wish I had bought even more than I did when the going was good!
I don't think anyone can say with any degree of certainty where the market is headed. Obviously, it's been on an upswing for the past 2 years, and continues to thrive. I expect there will be some pullback at some point, but who knows when that will be? No one. And even then, I don't see the bottom falling out as long as product continues to dry up.
I also don't think there has to be a necessary correlation between the value of unopened product and the cards within, as many collectors (including myself) collect unopened with no intention of opening said product. Unopened is a niche within the hobby itself. Regardless, the value of graded cards has also risen sharply in past year or so as well. A PSA 9 75 mini Brett card used to have trouble selling for $500 on a good day a year ago. Now, it's a 1K+ card easy. A PSA 9 73 Schhmidt has skyrocketed as well. So the reward has grown proportionately to the risk for a lot of these years, as well.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>Tim, you have not only contained it, you have "sealed" it. >>
LOL, I wish I had bought even more than I did when the going was good!
I don't think anyone can say with any degree of certainty where the market is headed. Obviously, it's been on an upswing for the past 2 years, and continues to thrive. I expect there will be some pullback at some point, but who knows when that will be? No one. And even then, I don't see the bottom falling out as long as product continues to dry up.
I also don't think there has to be a necessary correlation between the value of unopened product and the cards within, as many collectors (including myself) collect unopened with no intention of opening said product. Unopened is a niche within the hobby itself. Regardless, the value of graded cards has also risen sharply in past year or so as well. A PSA 9 75 mini Brett card used to have trouble selling for $500 on a good day a year ago. Now, it's a 1K+ card easy. A PSA 9 73 Schhmidt has skyrocketed as well. So the reward has grown proportionately to the risk for a lot of these years, as well. >>
I was gonna say there must be some proportion outside of just strictly collecting unopened material. The PSA values have to go up to sustain the market. In which case, has PSA 8's gone up as well? If not, then its a tougher investment and closer to a gamble. But if there is a rise in PSA 8's as well, then the price per box seems appropriate.
I dont see as much value in a 1980 box with PSA 9's or even in a 1979 box (save for select cards, obviously). After that, once you approach the 80's, everything needs to be pristine PSA 10's to get the full value of the box. And the prices of the 80's right now are purely investment prices. Clearly there are far more printed once the 80's hit and so prices will always be a lot lower to from the 70's.
An erroneous conception that a lot of people make is one of profits and losses being the impetus behind every single acquisition. Sure, it always plays a role, but the extent to which it does varies from person to person. All too often I see people hammering on others because the price point didn't fall within the realm of a "sound investment," when in truth that could be secondary, tertiary or beyond in the mind of the individual who actually made the purchase. In other words, conjecture can be a slippery slope, so tread lightly.
Take Steve's 1980 case, for example. It was emasculated in 15 hours. Fortunately I was able to join the party, and my reason for doing so had very little to do with its purchase price or future value. If it's something I covet and it's in my financial wheelhouse, the light turns green. Then, if it appreciates from that point forward, wonderful. If it depreciates, the gratification I receive won't be altered one iota. Why? Because it's not about the money. It's about having unbridled passion for the hobby. When I think back to my days of being introduced to baseball cards, it's all about 1980 Topps. So it should come as no surprise that my own personal demand was driven by my desire to acquire the purest specimen available from my childhood. And a 1980T box from a case owned by BBCE is like the driven snow.
Once we've established that people buy things for myriad reasons, we can then touch on rudimentary supply and demand. Last I checked, they're diametrically opposed when it comes to unopened material from the 70's. And if insatiable types can't scratch the itch there, it's quite apparent that they'll keep going down the line until they can -- hence a case of 1980 Topps not standing a chance @ $675 a pop.
<< <i>As a diehard ripper, I have been put off myself by the recent run-up in prices. The correlation between the cost of unopened and the potential value of what is inside is growing wider and wider apart. Not to rehash an age-old argument there has to be some rational balance between risk and reward. >>
Though it doesn't totally apply to 70s and newer unopened, rip vs value isn't the only factor. I wrote about this in an earlier post. For rippers, that's the case. However, there are other classes of unopened buyers. Some only buy to put away either for an investment or just because they like unopened as a collectible in and of itself. Taking rip vs value to the extreme, you'll never be able to buy a legit 1958 nickel wax pack at a price point that makes sense to rip. There are only a handful of single packs floating around in the market plus a full wax box I know of that is not currently for sale. These packs are so scarce that their value unopened far exceeds any potential return by opening it.
<< <i>As a diehard ripper, I have been put off myself by the recent run-up in prices. The correlation between the cost of unopened and the potential value of what is inside is growing wider and wider apart. Not to rehash an age-old argument there has to be some rational balance between risk and reward. >>
Though it doesn't totally apply to 70s and newer unopened, rip vs value isn't the only factor. I wrote about this in an earlier post. For rippers, that's the case. However, there are other classes of unopened buyers. Some only buy to put away either for an investment or just because they like unopened as a collectible in and of itself. Taking rip vs value to the extreme, you'll never be able to buy a legit 1958 nickel wax pack at a price point that makes sense to rip. There are only a handful of single packs floating around in the market plus a full wax box I know of that is not currently for sale. These packs are so scarce that their value unopened far exceeds any potential return by opening it. >>
Agree 100%. This is exactly what I meant when I stated above that collecting unopened for the sake of collecting unopened is a niche within itself in the hobby. For scarcer issues, almost all of which are 75 or earlier, the value of the pack will almost ALWAYS far outweigh the sum of its parts.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>An erroneous conception that a lot of people make is one of profits and losses being the impetus behind every single acquisition. Sure, it always plays a role, but the extent to which it does varies from person to person. All too often I see people hammering on others because the price point didn't fall within the realm of a "sound investment," when in truth that could be secondary, tertiary or beyond in the mind of the individual who actually made the purchase. In other words, conjecture can be a slippery slope, so tread lightly.
Take Steve's 1980 case, for example. It was emasculated in 15 hours. Fortunately I was able to join the party, and my reason for doing so had very little to do with its purchase price or future value. If it's something I covet and it's in my financial wheelhouse, the light turns green. Then, if it appreciates from that point forward, wonderful. If it depreciates, the gratification I receive won't be altered one iota. Why? Because it's not about the money. It's about having unbridled passion for the hobby. When I think back to my days of being introduced to baseball cards, it's all about 1980 Topps. So it should come as no surprise that my own personal demand was driven by my desire to acquire the purest specimen available from my childhood. And a 1980T box from a case owned by BBCE is like the driven snow.
Once we've established that people buy things for myriad reasons, we can then touch on rudimentary supply and demand. Last I checked, they're diametrically opposed when it comes to unopened material from the 70's. And if insatiable types can't scratch the itch there, it's quite apparent that they'll keep going down the line until they can -- hence a case of 1980 Topps not standing a chance @ $675 a pop. >>
You make a good point here and I agree that buying for your personal collection is less about investment, market value or gambling for PSA 10's. But rather a fulfillment of a personal niche - a milestone in ones collection. I understand that as I think most here do that. Myself included. But supposing one wants a 1987 Topps wax box for their personal collection, they are not going to shell out $200. They have every right to if that is their will to do so, however, like most, they research a market value. What is the going rate on such an item? Maybe the questions of why a 1987 box is NOT $200 and why is it only $15 might be more permissible in the line of questioning. In this instance, PSA cards are barely a factor, while 1980, PSA cards are a factor in the price, independent of why you are buying the box. All you are telling me is that $675 is cheap for a box of 1980 Topps because they are rare coming from a sealed case.
The fact that they sold quickly says something of the vitality of the marketplace as well as the object itself. I am sure they would have sold just as fast at $700. But what about $800? I understand your purchase and faith in BBCE which, as you said, getting a "pure" box from a particular time period. But even you have a ceiling for that box. No? So, all I was stating was that there has to be some proportion of the card value themselves within the marketplace that can sustain the prices of a wax box and a lot of that is driven by PSA pricing.
I did not understand your last paragraph when you wrote " Last I checked, they're diametrically opposed when it comes to unopened material from the 70's." Who is "they"? And what does the sentence mean?
<< <i>Should I post quotes from real estate oriented boards circa February 2004-2007?
You'd be astonished at the similarities when bulls generally outnumbered bears 10-1.
Unbridled enthusiasm? Check.
Easy access to money? Funny money mortgages vs. quantitative easing? Check.
Loloololol buy now before priced out forevah? Check. >>
Dissenting opinions are always important and critical in getting to a balanced truth. Not to beat a dead horse, but I beleive that the typical naysayers should at least acknowledge that the small group of us several years ago who were pronouncing that 1970s stuff was drying up were correct. That is not in dispute. Even as the prices have skyrocketed you dont see product "flooding" the market from closets and garages. Many of us have stated that a large amount of the existing supply are in the hands of collectors not speculators or investors so it really doesnt matter at this point.
About a year ago the BBCE drying up thread started asking about 80s product (80-85) and whether these would be the next years to go. The prices have indeed appreciated - perhaps based on speculation and energy of a few board members as well as outside collectors who are now in their 40s with disposable income, and yet again due to a lag effect of all the money the fed has been printing. IMO we are not anywhere near the "speculative" bubble you described in the recent housing bubble mainly because you do not see "flipping" occuring and because of the generally small market with lack of churning opportunities. That is, people are not buying -selling - buying the same product outside of major dealers. I have made my educated guess of where the ceiling is. I look at it this way. One person who will drop 50 bucks on a waxbox of 1982 fleer is the same person who will drop 250 bucks to see an Aerosmith concert. Does he really worry about the difference between 50 or 70? Similarly, if I feel like ripping some 1981 DR, do I worry about paying 2.50 or 3.50 per pack? - based on that I have a personal ceiling in mind and will continue to accumulate for the day I retire and spend my golden years looking for Fidrych rookies.
You're right. If there's a few deep pockets buying everything up, there's no ceiling if egos and or psychological things are at play.
If that's the case, everyone else should just stand aside cause its a game they really can't win. Worst of all for those on the side would be to start buying dubious boxes on eBay, but I guess we've already heard those sob stories.
And actually, after searching eBay, I do see much more 1975-1980 unopened product listed than I have in the past.
The fact that its not selling, even with BIN OBO and in some cases BBCE wrapping indicates there is on fact a current ceiling and is probably not much more than current BBCE pricing.
<< <i>Curious how fewer of these other factors applied when the price was half what it currently is. >>
I can't speak for other collectors, but I was buying even more product back then.
I've been collecting unopened for many years now and can confidently assert that we're never going to see those kind of prices again.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>Should I post quotes from real estate oriented boards circa February 2004-2007?
You'd be astonished at the similarities when bulls generally outnumbered bears 10-1.
Unbridled enthusiasm? Check.
Easy access to money? Funny money mortgages vs. quantitative easing? Check.
Loloololol buy now before priced out forevah? Check. >>
Dissenting opinions are always important and critical in getting to a balanced truth. Not to beat a dead horse, but I beleive that the typical naysayers should at least acknowledge that the small group of us several years ago who were pronouncing that 1970s stuff was drying up were correct. That is not in dispute. Even as the prices have skyrocketed you dont see product "flooding" the market from closets and garages. Many of us have stated that a large amount of the existing supply are in the hands of collectors not speculators or investors so it really doesnt matter at this point.
About a year ago the BBCE drying up thread started asking about 80s product (80-85) and whether these would be the next years to go. The prices have indeed appreciated - perhaps based on speculation and energy of a few board members as well as outside collectors who are now in their 40s with disposable income, and yet again due to a lag effect of all the money the fed has been printing. IMO we are not anywhere near the "speculative" bubble you described in the recent housing bubble mainly because you do not see "flipping" occuring and because of the generally small market with lack of churning opportunities. That is, people are not buying -selling - buying the same product outside of major dealers. I have made my educated guess of where the ceiling is. I look at it this way. One person who will drop 50 bucks on a waxbox of 1982 fleer is the same person who will drop 250 bucks to see an Aerosmith concert. Does he really worry about the difference between 50 or 70? Similarly, if I feel like ripping some 1981 DR, do I worry about paying 2.50 or 3.50 per pack? - based on that I have a personal ceiling in mind and will continue to accumulate for the day I retire and spend my golden years looking for Fidrych rookies. >>
I would agree with much of what you've said, however, there certainly appears to be a lot of unopened up for sale these days on the B/S/T forum. A lot of it is "from the X group rip" or has BBCE wrapping. I think a lot of people aren't buying it because they collect it, they're buying it because they feel like they're going to miss out or they think it's a great flip opportunity. Yet, an overwhelming amount of what's being offered are recent purchases from BBCE. They're operating under the assumption that Steve doesn't understand the unopened market and what things go for? I would wager a guess that Steve understands the market better than most. I recall a fury of talk when he broke a sealed case of 1982 Donruss and how they sold out in 90 seconds or whatever it was. Well, he got more 1982 Donruss boxes from a sealed case and hasn't sold out after weeks of being on the site. Anytime there's a rah-rah thread about an item it goes poof. But when it comes back into stock, it hangs around for a bit. I think Steve still has unopened 75 Mini wax boxes available.
Also, drying up might not be the phrase to use when it comes to unopened. Technically, 1987 Topps is drying up. The population on unopened items cannot rise, it can only decrease. Every time someone opens any product, there's now less of that unopened product in existence.
The unfortunate aspect in all this is that it seems you can't have an unopened discussion these days without it being all about how rare something is or how the prices are going through the roof. So people that collect unopened for the sake of collecting unopened don't really have an inviting format for discussion since it's overwhelmed with prospectors.
Another problem is that there's an awful lot of people jumping into unopened without taking the time or doing the work to learn about that niche in the hobby. So there's a lot of uneducated people spouting off about things that they don't understand. This is the type of thing that gets people burned and turned off to the hobby. It would be great if we could have two forums -- one for people that look at this like a hobby and one for people that look at this like a strike-it-rich-quick plan.
I think this post qualifies me for the old geezer club. Who's responsible for embroidering my satin jacket?
What has attracted me to the unopened side is the the packaging more than what is inside it. I like the differences in the wrappers and in the boxes themselves. I enjoy seeing simple things like changes in artwork and even the Topps logo itself on the packaging. Rack packs are cool with changes in the header portion.
Finding stuff in pristine condition is fun to me too. That is why I really wanted another 1980 Topps Wax Box. They are very colorful and in near mint condition. It is like having a time capsule of sorts from that era.
Reggie makes some good points, particularly with 80s material. Even though the supply is more scarce than 10 years ago, there is still a lot of that stuff out there. People did hoard it and you'll see that inventory come to market over time. The smart play for those people is not to dump it but rather dribble it out over time to maximize their return. The Conlan blowout was a good example. Prices crashed to about 50-60% of the market price for months. Had the boxes been pieced out over time, they would have maintained the market price.
<< <i>What has attracted me to the unopened side is the the packaging more than what is inside it. I like the differences in the wrappers and in the boxes themselves. I enjoy seeing simple things like changes in artwork and even the Topps logo itself on the packaging. Rack packs are cool with changes in the header portion.
Finding stuff in pristine condition is fun to me too. That is why I really wanted another 1980 Topps Wax Box. They are very colorful and in near mint condition. It is like having a time capsule of sorts from that era. >>
Do not at all disagree with your sentiments.
However I pose the question again....
Why is this the case now at 2-3x the price vs a year ago?
Reggie Cleveland framed the situation quite well.
It really does seem the cheerleaders have an agenda opposite what they are posting. Someone collecting stuff doesn't run here and brag or excitedly post about how much stuff is going for(and people with the money to buy this stuff shouldn't really get a chubby because of a few hundred dollar price increase anyway).
<< <i> I would agree with much of what you've said, however, there certainly appears to be a lot of unopened up for sale these days on the B/S/T forum. A lot of it is "from the X group rip" or has BBCE wrapping. I think a lot of people aren't buying it because they collect it, they're buying it because they feel like they're going to miss out or they think it's a great flip opportunity. Yet, an overwhelming amount of what's being offered are recent purchases from BBCE. They're operating under the assumption that Steve doesn't understand the unopened market and what things go for? I would wager a guess that Steve understands the market better than most. I recall a fury of talk when he broke a sealed case of 1982 Donruss and how they sold out in 90 seconds or whatever it was. Well, he got more 1982 Donruss boxes from a sealed case and hasn't sold out after weeks of being on the site. Anytime there's a rah-rah thread about an item it goes poof. But when it comes back into stock, it hangs around for a bit. I think Steve still has unopened 75 Mini wax boxes available.
Also, drying up might not be the phrase to use when it comes to unopened. Technically, 1987 Topps is drying up. The population on unopened items cannot rise, it can only decrease. Every time someone opens any product, there's now less of that unopened product in existence.
The unfortunate aspect in all this is that it seems you can't have an unopened discussion these days without it being all about how rare something is or how the prices are going through the roof. So people that collect unopened for the sake of collecting unopened don't really have an inviting format for discussion since it's overwhelmed with prospectors.
Another problem is that there's an awful lot of people jumping into unopened without taking the time or doing the work to learn about that niche in the hobby. So there's a lot of uneducated people spouting off about things that they don't understand. This is the type of thing that gets people burned and turned off to the hobby. It would be great if we could have two forums -- one for people that look at this like a hobby and one for people that look at this like a strike-it-rich-quick plan.
I think this post qualifies me for the old geezer club. Who's responsible for embroidering my satin jacket? >>
So basically my kid won't be able to go to college, but at least I'll have a set where the three most expensive cards are of a player I despise ~ CDsNuts
<< <i>It really does seem the cheerleaders have an agenda opposite what they are posting. Someone collecting stuff doesn't run here and brag or excitedly post about how much stuff is going for(and people with the money to buy this stuff shouldn't really get a chubby because of a few hundred dollar price increase anyway). >>
I think an overwhelming majority of the unopened folks here on CU are completely malice-free. I think most are just excited about that portion of the hobby and that excitement spills over into posts laced with hyperbole. And even that, I have no problem with. I love unopened product and I love hyperbole. I use hyperbole the way other artists use paints and clays. But when the hyperbole turns into something masked as sound investing advice, that's just irresponsible in my opinion.
I collect unopened stuff that is my current price range. I am always looking for stuff, even when I am penniless and crying in the corner. Its fun to window shop. While a 1980 box would look great in my collection, I could not pick up a box at this time, so I am fine waiting. Even if it means paying more later. Collecting early 80's is tough as it is, which is why I have not ventured into the 70's because it was pricey when I started this gig.
Someone collecting stuff doesn't run here and brag or excitedly post about how much stuff is going for(and people with the money to buy this stuff shouldn't really get a chubby because of a few hundred dollar price increase anyway).
This is a sports message board, right? I don't think it's appropriate or accurate to claim that people are running on here to brag about anything. We're all collectors simply discussing what aspects of the hobby we find exciting and sharing our collections. We get it by now--you think prices are way too high and keep regurgitating the same snide remarks, even though you really have little or no fundamental knowledge of this part of the hobby to begin with.
No one knows where the unopened market is headed. It is clear that prices have risen sharply over the past two years. That much is a fact. Steve Hart has stated several times that obtaining vintage unopened product is the most daunting part of his business these days. I don't think see that changing or getting better going forward, and though I certainly don't know where the market will be next year, or two years, or ten years from now, I am enjoying collecting unopened product because I enjoy the hobby, not because I'm looking for a windfall or replacing my retirement fund.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>It really does seem the cheerleaders have an agenda opposite what they are posting. Someone collecting stuff doesn't run here and brag or excitedly post about how much stuff is going for(and people with the money to buy this stuff shouldn't really get a chubby because of a few hundred dollar price increase anyway). >>
I think an overwhelming majority of the unopened folks here on CU are completely malice-free. I think most are just excited about that portion of the hobby and that excitement spills over into posts laced with hyperbole. And even that, I have no problem with. I love unopened product and I love hyperbole. I use hyperbole the way other artists use paints and clays. But when the hyperbole turns into something masked as sound investing advice, that's just irresponsible in my opinion.
<< <i>But supposing one wants a 1987 Topps wax box for their personal collection, they are not going to shell out $200. They have every right to if that is their will to do so, however, like most, they research a market value. What is the going rate on such an item? >>
It's easier to tag '87 Topps than it is for anything from the late 70's -- or even 1980 -- because there are copious amounts of it. There for a while I literally could not find a single box from '77-'79 on eBay, hence the current market price was the great unknown. As can be seen from the listings presented above, the resting spot for the earliest available material is quite fluid. To back that assertion, look below.
<< <i>The fact that they sold quickly says something of the vitality of the marketplace as well as the object itself. I am sure they would have sold just as fast at $700. But what about $800? >>
Yup, would've disappeared into the abyss @ $800 per. Perhaps not as quickly, but I think it would have been inevitable. A non-BBCE box flew for this amount just yesterday.
<< <i>I did not understand your last paragraph when you wrote " Last I checked, they're diametrically opposed when it comes to unopened material from the 70's." Who is "they"? And what does the sentence mean? >>
Meaning S&D are at opposite extremes from a high/low perspective. There's a dearth of unopened material to be had from the late 70's, and pent-up demand ready for absorption is off the charts. The perfect storm for what's transpiring right before our very eyes.
<< <i> Someone collecting stuff doesn't run here and brag or excitedly post about how much stuff is going for(and people with the money to buy this stuff shouldn't really get a chubby because of a few hundred dollar price increase anyway).
This is a sports message board, right? I don't think it's appropriate or accurate to claim that people are running on here to brag about anything. We're all collectors simply discussing what aspects of the hobby we find exciting and sharing our collections. We get it by now--you think prices are way too high and keep regurgitating the same snide remarks, even though you really have little or no fundamental knowledge of this part of the hobby to begin with.
No one knows where the unopened market is headed. It is clear that prices have risen sharply over the past two years. That much is a fact. Steve Hart has stated several times that obtaining vintage unopened product is the most daunting part of his business these days. I don't think see that changing or getting better going forward, and though I certainly don't know where the market will be next year, or two years, or ten years from now, I am enjoying collecting unopened product because I enjoy the hobby, not because I'm looking for a windfall or replacing my retirement fund. >>
Again spot on Tim. Referring to 1982DR as an anti argument for the recent price correction reveals a lack of understanding regarding the nuances of the unopened market; and no one is putting those cards in the same class as 1970s or even 1980 Topps waxboxes. I have a boatload of 82DR and will break them for enjoyment - I would be an idiot to have bought them for "speculation" IMO early 80s Fleer/DR have high cost versus fun ratio. That is, those years will be fun to break and the cards are still cheap to buy and relatively easy to find in comparison to Topps
<< <i>There's a dearth of unopened material to be had from the late 70's, and pent-up demand ready for absorption is off the charts. The perfect storm for what's transpiring right before our very eyes. >>
<< <i>There's a dearth of unopened material to be had from the late 70's, and pent-up demand ready for absorption is off the charts. The perfect storm for what's transpiring right before our very eyes. >>
Remember the tulips. >>
I bought a 6 box 1979 rack case around 2006 for 2.5K (I believe), it is now, 7 years later probably north of 10K. This is over a 7 year period not 7 months. A comparable tulip bubble would put this case over 100K by next year. IMHO The price changes over the last couple years for 1970s unopened is just an accurate market adjustment due to the realization that the supply is thinner than we thought. The energy around 1980-85 is reasoned not speculative. People are trying to guage value with less information about the actual scarcity. So at this point we are all conjecturing. maybe some of the prices will re-adjust downward, perhaps some inevitably will. But where are the truly wild price swings that the naysayers are basing their warning on?
<< <i>And actually, after searching eBay, I do see much more 1975-1980 unopened product listed than I have in the past.
The fact that its not selling, even with BIN OBO and in some cases BBCE wrapping indicates there is on fact a current ceiling and is probably not much more than current BBCE pricing. >>
Links please? Trying to find 1975-1979 unopened boxes at anywhere near a reasonable price. Thanks.
I agree with whoever said that we all have different motivations. Maybe I'm a part of the "problem" but one of the first pieces of advice i got on this board was collect what you like, the other was know your limits.
After a 20 year break from collecting, I returned to the hobby about a year ago. I returned for two reasons.
1) I was finally getting started on cleaning my basement and setting up what's been intended as a display room for my cards, comics, toys, and other assorted oddities I've acquired through the years. As I went through my baseball cards (I haven't hit football or basketball yet), I started to get the bug.
2) My son is reaching tee ball age and is starting to enjoy watching sports with me. I decided I wanted to fill some holes in my raw collection, in hopes that I can use the cards to teach not only about baseball history, but about hobbies and collectibles. I learned a lot from collecting as a kid, and I'd be thrilled if he enjoys it.
Since I hadn't spent more than a grand in 20 years on a variety of occasional ripper boxes from Target or a raw vintage buy on eBay, I justified a budget in my mind and a list of my favorite cards, from a list of my favorite 150 mostly HOFers from 52-90, with a variety from each year.
I was flush with 80s, and before I left collecting I had turned much of my bulk 80s into 50s-60s, so most holes filled quick.
With the wife and kids heading out of town, I decided to stroll down memory lane with an 81T cello box and 81F wax, and decided to grab a few 77, 78, 79, 80 packs while at it. Though neither ripping or collecting unopened was an intended focus, by the end of the weekend I knew where the rest of my budget was going, and I kept one pack of everything sealed...cuz seriously "princess tricycles with streamers, yo" I was gonna keep my eyes open for deals on 71 - 85 unopened (stuck at 74 thus far) so that I/we have a stockpile for the future, as ripping into foil or plastic, just isn't the same as wax. And maybe I just like the simplicity of a time when we had 1-3 mfg's and each essentially only had a base set. When we got to 6+ mfg's printing multiple lines, it just gets to tough to follow, and I never really got into the inserts and such.
So I bought what a could from BBCE. And thanks to a handful of CU Board Members who have been kind enough to help me piece together much of my wish list at fair deals for quality product, I'm pretty comfortable with both what I have and what I've spent. And I'm especially thankful that they've released what they have to me in this climate. I feel they're paying it forward and appreciate it...and I'm glad they make a few bucks for maintaining a channel of reliable product.
As for ROI, the only thing I'm hoping for is years of fun rips with my kid. Anything we pull will be cool, but just gravy since I'm not a grader nor a seller. But the thought that maybe, just maybe with a little luck we hit a score, that's pretty cool too. And keeping one of everything unopened makes for a kick ass display, or so I've seen.
Thanks again to those that make it possible, and apologies for the giant post...just wanted to show that my/your dollars don't make sense to most, but only need to make sense to me/you. Please don't curse me for buying what I want at a price I think is fair based on my homework, level of desire, and confidence in seller.
I'm gonna go ride my tricycle, yo.
52-90 All Sports, Mostly Topps, Mostly HOF, and some assorted wax.
galaxy27
Posts: 7,152 ✭✭✭✭✭
Comments
That's just ridiculous
Looking for 1970 MLB Photostamps
- uncut
Positive Transactions - tennesseebanker, Ahmanfan, Donruss, Colebear, CDsNuts, rbdjr1, Downtown1974, yankeeno7, drewsef, mnolan, mrbud60, msassin, RipublicaninMass, AkbarClone, rustywilly, lsutigers1973, julen23 and nam812, plus many others...
<< <i>I only counted 3 figs. >>
Just add a penny. You must be one of those guys that never exceeds the speed limit.
Seriously these late 70s, early 80s price increases are amazing.
I'm mostly interested in pre-1970 cards so thankfully unopened material is not a temptation
DaveB in St.Louis
<< <i>wasnt there a case for sale? >>
doubt it. but it made a nice conversation piece.
http://www.ebay.com/itm/290975790006
Jmaciu's Collection
saucywombat@hotmail.com
<< <i>There is a non BBCE 1979 cello box on eBay that is at $860 with 7 hours left. >>
what did it end at? I can't find it.
<< <i>
<< <i>There is a non BBCE 1979 cello box on eBay that is at $860 with 7 hours left. >>
what did it end at? I can't find it. >>
$1,050
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Jmaciu's Collection
Iinvestments don't double in price to infinity(ie this stuffs gonna crash at some point and if you know how to figure out when that will be you're brighter than I am).
Enjoy it, cool.
Buying as an investment at these prices? You're more a gambler than an investor and I'd guess its a -EV play at this point.
<< <i>Not that stuff wasn't somewhat underpriced, but there's temporary short term variance and now some panic going on.
Iinvestments don't double in price to infinity(ie this stuffs gonna crash at some point and if you know how to figure out when that will be you're brighter than I am).
Enjoy it, cool.
Buying as an investment at these prices? You're more a gambler than an investor and I'd guess its a -EV play at this point. >>
EV play?
Jmaciu's Collection
As in:
Buying 1979 wax boxes for four figures is likely -ev
It's a concept commonly referred to in gambling in part to account for the fluctuations that variance brings. For instance while you may win a bunch in any given session at craps, it's always a -EV play for the player...the house always has the theoretical advantage.
For any given investment, baseball cards included, there's a value ceiling that once crossed places the investment into -EV territory at that price.
I'd assert that we've gone far beyond that point with unopened from late 70's/early 80's...paticularly with 1979 and 1980 wax sold on eBay. As an aside I'd suspect some shilling as well...prices for dubious wax has exceeded BBCE pricing. It was only a year ago that I joined this site and bought a 1980 vending box on eBay at $125 that yielded a great Henderson, Smith, Rose, and Ryan.
What's changed in the past year to warrant tripling of prices?
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Jmaciu's Collection
You'd be astonished at the similarities when bulls generally outnumbered bears 10-1.
Unbridled enthusiasm? Check.
Easy access to money? Funny money mortgages vs. quantitative easing? Check.
Loloololol buy now before priced out forevah? Check.
http://www.ebay.com/itm/380723652506
<< <i>Tim, you have not only contained it, you have "sealed" it.
LOL, I wish I had bought even more than I did when the going was good!
I don't think anyone can say with any degree of certainty where the market is headed. Obviously, it's been on an upswing for the past 2 years, and continues to thrive. I expect there will be some pullback at some point, but who knows when that will be? No one. And even then, I don't see the bottom falling out as long as product continues to dry up.
I also don't think there has to be a necessary correlation between the value of unopened product and the cards within, as many collectors (including myself) collect unopened with no intention of opening said product. Unopened is a niche within the hobby itself. Regardless, the value of graded cards has also risen sharply in past year or so as well. A PSA 9 75 mini Brett card used to have trouble selling for $500 on a good day a year ago. Now, it's a 1K+ card easy. A PSA 9 73 Schhmidt has skyrocketed as well. So the reward has grown proportionately to the risk for a lot of these years, as well.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>
<< <i>Tim, you have not only contained it, you have "sealed" it.
LOL, I wish I had bought even more than I did when the going was good!
I don't think anyone can say with any degree of certainty where the market is headed. Obviously, it's been on an upswing for the past 2 years, and continues to thrive. I expect there will be some pullback at some point, but who knows when that will be? No one. And even then, I don't see the bottom falling out as long as product continues to dry up.
I also don't think there has to be a necessary correlation between the value of unopened product and the cards within, as many collectors (including myself) collect unopened with no intention of opening said product. Unopened is a niche within the hobby itself. Regardless, the value of graded cards has also risen sharply in past year or so as well. A PSA 9 75 mini Brett card used to have trouble selling for $500 on a good day a year ago. Now, it's a 1K+ card easy. A PSA 9 73 Schhmidt has skyrocketed as well. So the reward has grown proportionately to the risk for a lot of these years, as well. >>
I was gonna say there must be some proportion outside of just strictly collecting unopened material. The PSA values have to go up to sustain the market. In which case, has PSA 8's gone up as well? If not, then its a tougher investment and closer to a gamble. But if there is a rise in PSA 8's as well, then the price per box seems appropriate.
I dont see as much value in a 1980 box with PSA 9's or even in a 1979 box (save for select cards, obviously). After that, once you approach the 80's, everything needs to be pristine PSA 10's to get the full value of the box. And the prices of the 80's right now are purely investment prices. Clearly there are far more printed once the 80's hit and so prices will always be a lot lower to from the 70's.
Take Steve's 1980 case, for example. It was emasculated in 15 hours. Fortunately I was able to join the party, and my reason for doing so had very little to do with its purchase price or future value. If it's something I covet and it's in my financial wheelhouse, the light turns green. Then, if it appreciates from that point forward, wonderful. If it depreciates, the gratification I receive won't be altered one iota. Why? Because it's not about the money. It's about having unbridled passion for the hobby. When I think back to my days of being introduced to baseball cards, it's all about 1980 Topps. So it should come as no surprise that my own personal demand was driven by my desire to acquire the purest specimen available from my childhood. And a 1980T box from a case owned by BBCE is like the driven snow.
Once we've established that people buy things for myriad reasons, we can then touch on rudimentary supply and demand. Last I checked, they're diametrically opposed when it comes to unopened material from the 70's. And if insatiable types can't scratch the itch there, it's quite apparent that they'll keep going down the line until they can -- hence a case of 1980 Topps not standing a chance @ $675 a pop.
<< <i>conjecture can be a slippery slope, so tread lightly. >>
Words of wisdom.
<< <i>As a diehard ripper, I have been put off myself by the recent run-up in prices. The correlation between the cost of unopened and the potential value of what is inside is growing wider and wider apart. Not to rehash an age-old argument there has to be some rational balance between risk and reward. >>
Though it doesn't totally apply to 70s and newer unopened, rip vs value isn't the only factor. I wrote about this in an earlier post. For rippers, that's the case. However, there are other classes of unopened buyers. Some only buy to put away either for an investment or just because they like unopened as a collectible in and of itself. Taking rip vs value to the extreme, you'll never be able to buy a legit 1958 nickel wax pack at a price point that makes sense to rip. There are only a handful of single packs floating around in the market plus a full wax box I know of that is not currently for sale. These packs are so scarce that their value unopened far exceeds any potential return by opening it.
<< <i>
<< <i>As a diehard ripper, I have been put off myself by the recent run-up in prices. The correlation between the cost of unopened and the potential value of what is inside is growing wider and wider apart. Not to rehash an age-old argument there has to be some rational balance between risk and reward. >>
Though it doesn't totally apply to 70s and newer unopened, rip vs value isn't the only factor. I wrote about this in an earlier post. For rippers, that's the case. However, there are other classes of unopened buyers. Some only buy to put away either for an investment or just because they like unopened as a collectible in and of itself. Taking rip vs value to the extreme, you'll never be able to buy a legit 1958 nickel wax pack at a price point that makes sense to rip. There are only a handful of single packs floating around in the market plus a full wax box I know of that is not currently for sale. These packs are so scarce that their value unopened far exceeds any potential return by opening it. >>
Agree 100%. This is exactly what I meant when I stated above that collecting unopened for the sake of collecting unopened is a niche within itself in the hobby. For scarcer issues, almost all of which are 75 or earlier, the value of the pack will almost ALWAYS far outweigh the sum of its parts.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>An erroneous conception that a lot of people make is one of profits and losses being the impetus behind every single acquisition. Sure, it always plays a role, but the extent to which it does varies from person to person. All too often I see people hammering on others because the price point didn't fall within the realm of a "sound investment," when in truth that could be secondary, tertiary or beyond in the mind of the individual who actually made the purchase. In other words, conjecture can be a slippery slope, so tread lightly.
Take Steve's 1980 case, for example. It was emasculated in 15 hours. Fortunately I was able to join the party, and my reason for doing so had very little to do with its purchase price or future value. If it's something I covet and it's in my financial wheelhouse, the light turns green. Then, if it appreciates from that point forward, wonderful. If it depreciates, the gratification I receive won't be altered one iota. Why? Because it's not about the money. It's about having unbridled passion for the hobby. When I think back to my days of being introduced to baseball cards, it's all about 1980 Topps. So it should come as no surprise that my own personal demand was driven by my desire to acquire the purest specimen available from my childhood. And a 1980T box from a case owned by BBCE is like the driven snow.
Once we've established that people buy things for myriad reasons, we can then touch on rudimentary supply and demand. Last I checked, they're diametrically opposed when it comes to unopened material from the 70's. And if insatiable types can't scratch the itch there, it's quite apparent that they'll keep going down the line until they can -- hence a case of 1980 Topps not standing a chance @ $675 a pop. >>
You make a good point here and I agree that buying for your personal collection is less about investment, market value or gambling for PSA 10's. But rather a fulfillment of a personal niche - a milestone in ones collection. I understand that as I think most here do that. Myself included. But supposing one wants a 1987 Topps wax box for their personal collection, they are not going to shell out $200. They have every right to if that is their will to do so, however, like most, they research a market value. What is the going rate on such an item? Maybe the questions of why a 1987 box is NOT $200 and why is it only $15 might be more permissible in the line of questioning. In this instance, PSA cards are barely a factor, while 1980, PSA cards are a factor in the price, independent of why you are buying the box. All you are telling me is that $675 is cheap for a box of 1980 Topps because they are rare coming from a sealed case.
The fact that they sold quickly says something of the vitality of the marketplace as well as the object itself. I am sure they would have sold just as fast at $700. But what about $800? I understand your purchase and faith in BBCE which, as you said, getting a "pure" box from a particular time period. But even you have a ceiling for that box. No? So, all I was stating was that there has to be some proportion of the card value themselves within the marketplace that can sustain the prices of a wax box and a lot of that is driven by PSA pricing.
I did not understand your last paragraph when you wrote " Last I checked, they're diametrically opposed when it comes to unopened material from the 70's." Who is "they"? And what does the sentence mean?
<< <i>Should I post quotes from real estate oriented boards circa February 2004-2007?
You'd be astonished at the similarities when bulls generally outnumbered bears 10-1.
Unbridled enthusiasm? Check.
Easy access to money? Funny money mortgages vs. quantitative easing? Check.
Loloololol buy now before priced out forevah? Check. >>
Dissenting opinions are always important and critical in getting to a balanced truth. Not to beat a dead horse, but I beleive that the typical naysayers should at least acknowledge that the small group of us several years ago who were pronouncing that 1970s stuff was drying up were correct. That is not in dispute. Even as the prices have skyrocketed you dont see product "flooding" the market from closets and garages. Many of us have stated that a large amount of the existing supply are in the hands of collectors not speculators or investors so it really doesnt matter at this point.
About a year ago the BBCE drying up thread started asking about 80s product (80-85) and whether these would be the next years to go. The prices have indeed appreciated - perhaps based on speculation and energy of a few board members as well as outside collectors who are now in their 40s with disposable income, and yet again due to a lag effect of all the money the fed has been printing.
IMO we are not anywhere near the "speculative" bubble you described in the recent housing bubble mainly because you do not see "flipping" occuring and because of the generally small market with lack of churning opportunities. That is, people are not buying -selling - buying the same product outside of major dealers. I have made my educated guess of where the ceiling is. I look at it this way. One person who will drop 50 bucks on a waxbox of 1982 fleer is the same person who will drop 250 bucks to see an Aerosmith concert. Does he really worry about the difference between 50 or 70? Similarly, if I feel like ripping some 1981 DR, do I worry about paying 2.50 or 3.50 per pack? - based on that I have a personal ceiling in mind and will continue to accumulate for the day I retire and spend my golden years looking for Fidrych rookies.
If that's the case, everyone else should just stand aside cause its a game they really can't win. Worst of all for those on the side would be to start buying dubious boxes on eBay, but I guess we've already heard those sob stories.
The fact that its not selling, even with BIN OBO and in some cases BBCE wrapping indicates there is on fact a current ceiling and is probably not much more than current BBCE pricing.
<< <i>Curious how fewer of these other factors applied when the price was half what it currently is. >>
I can't speak for other collectors, but I was buying even more product back then.
I've been collecting unopened for many years now and can confidently assert that we're never going to see those kind of prices again.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>
<< <i>Should I post quotes from real estate oriented boards circa February 2004-2007?
You'd be astonished at the similarities when bulls generally outnumbered bears 10-1.
Unbridled enthusiasm? Check.
Easy access to money? Funny money mortgages vs. quantitative easing? Check.
Loloololol buy now before priced out forevah? Check. >>
Dissenting opinions are always important and critical in getting to a balanced truth. Not to beat a dead horse, but I beleive that the typical naysayers should at least acknowledge that the small group of us several years ago who were pronouncing that 1970s stuff was drying up were correct. That is not in dispute. Even as the prices have skyrocketed you dont see product "flooding" the market from closets and garages. Many of us have stated that a large amount of the existing supply are in the hands of collectors not speculators or investors so it really doesnt matter at this point.
About a year ago the BBCE drying up thread started asking about 80s product (80-85) and whether these would be the next years to go. The prices have indeed appreciated - perhaps based on speculation and energy of a few board members as well as outside collectors who are now in their 40s with disposable income, and yet again due to a lag effect of all the money the fed has been printing.
IMO we are not anywhere near the "speculative" bubble you described in the recent housing bubble mainly because you do not see "flipping" occuring and because of the generally small market with lack of churning opportunities. That is, people are not buying -selling - buying the same product outside of major dealers. I have made my educated guess of where the ceiling is. I look at it this way. One person who will drop 50 bucks on a waxbox of 1982 fleer is the same person who will drop 250 bucks to see an Aerosmith concert. Does he really worry about the difference between 50 or 70? Similarly, if I feel like ripping some 1981 DR, do I worry about paying 2.50 or 3.50 per pack? - based on that I have a personal ceiling in mind and will continue to accumulate for the day I retire and spend my golden years looking for Fidrych rookies. >>
I would agree with much of what you've said, however, there certainly appears to be a lot of unopened up for sale these days on the B/S/T forum. A lot of it is "from the X group rip" or has BBCE wrapping. I think a lot of people aren't buying it because they collect it, they're buying it because they feel like they're going to miss out or they think it's a great flip opportunity. Yet, an overwhelming amount of what's being offered are recent purchases from BBCE. They're operating under the assumption that Steve doesn't understand the unopened market and what things go for? I would wager a guess that Steve understands the market better than most. I recall a fury of talk when he broke a sealed case of 1982 Donruss and how they sold out in 90 seconds or whatever it was. Well, he got more 1982 Donruss boxes from a sealed case and hasn't sold out after weeks of being on the site. Anytime there's a rah-rah thread about an item it goes poof. But when it comes back into stock, it hangs around for a bit. I think Steve still has unopened 75 Mini wax boxes available.
Also, drying up might not be the phrase to use when it comes to unopened. Technically, 1987 Topps is drying up. The population on unopened items cannot rise, it can only decrease. Every time someone opens any product, there's now less of that unopened product in existence.
The unfortunate aspect in all this is that it seems you can't have an unopened discussion these days without it being all about how rare something is or how the prices are going through the roof. So people that collect unopened for the sake of collecting unopened don't really have an inviting format for discussion since it's overwhelmed with prospectors.
Another problem is that there's an awful lot of people jumping into unopened without taking the time or doing the work to learn about that niche in the hobby. So there's a lot of uneducated people spouting off about things that they don't understand. This is the type of thing that gets people burned and turned off to the hobby. It would be great if we could have two forums -- one for people that look at this like a hobby and one for people that look at this like a strike-it-rich-quick plan.
I think this post qualifies me for the old geezer club. Who's responsible for embroidering my satin jacket?
Finding stuff in pristine condition is fun to me too. That is why I really wanted another 1980 Topps Wax Box. They are very colorful and in near mint condition. It is like having a time capsule of sorts from that era.
Jmaciu's Collection
<< <i>What has attracted me to the unopened side is the the packaging more than what is inside it. I like the differences in the wrappers and in the boxes themselves. I enjoy seeing simple things like changes in artwork and even the Topps logo itself on the packaging. Rack packs are cool with changes in the header portion.
Finding stuff in pristine condition is fun to me too. That is why I really wanted another 1980 Topps Wax Box. They are very colorful and in near mint condition. It is like having a time capsule of sorts from that era. >>
Do not at all disagree with your sentiments.
However I pose the question again....
Why is this the case now at 2-3x the price vs a year ago?
Reggie Cleveland framed the situation quite well.
It really does seem the cheerleaders have an agenda opposite what they are posting. Someone collecting stuff doesn't run here and brag or excitedly post about how much stuff is going for(and people with the money to buy this stuff shouldn't really get a chubby because of a few hundred dollar price increase anyway).
<< <i>
I would agree with much of what you've said, however, there certainly appears to be a lot of unopened up for sale these days on the B/S/T forum. A lot of it is "from the X group rip" or has BBCE wrapping. I think a lot of people aren't buying it because they collect it, they're buying it because they feel like they're going to miss out or they think it's a great flip opportunity. Yet, an overwhelming amount of what's being offered are recent purchases from BBCE. They're operating under the assumption that Steve doesn't understand the unopened market and what things go for? I would wager a guess that Steve understands the market better than most. I recall a fury of talk when he broke a sealed case of 1982 Donruss and how they sold out in 90 seconds or whatever it was. Well, he got more 1982 Donruss boxes from a sealed case and hasn't sold out after weeks of being on the site. Anytime there's a rah-rah thread about an item it goes poof. But when it comes back into stock, it hangs around for a bit. I think Steve still has unopened 75 Mini wax boxes available.
Also, drying up might not be the phrase to use when it comes to unopened. Technically, 1987 Topps is drying up. The population on unopened items cannot rise, it can only decrease. Every time someone opens any product, there's now less of that unopened product in existence.
The unfortunate aspect in all this is that it seems you can't have an unopened discussion these days without it being all about how rare something is or how the prices are going through the roof. So people that collect unopened for the sake of collecting unopened don't really have an inviting format for discussion since it's overwhelmed with prospectors.
Another problem is that there's an awful lot of people jumping into unopened without taking the time or doing the work to learn about that niche in the hobby. So there's a lot of uneducated people spouting off about things that they don't understand. This is the type of thing that gets people burned and turned off to the hobby. It would be great if we could have two forums -- one for people that look at this like a hobby and one for people that look at this like a strike-it-rich-quick plan.
I think this post qualifies me for the old geezer club. Who's responsible for embroidering my satin jacket? >>
<< <i>It really does seem the cheerleaders have an agenda opposite what they are posting. Someone collecting stuff doesn't run here and brag or excitedly post about how much stuff is going for(and people with the money to buy this stuff shouldn't really get a chubby because of a few hundred dollar price increase anyway). >>
I think an overwhelming majority of the unopened folks here on CU are completely malice-free. I think most are just excited about that portion of the hobby and that excitement spills over into posts laced with hyperbole. And even that, I have no problem with. I love unopened product and I love hyperbole. I use hyperbole the way other artists use paints and clays. But when the hyperbole turns into something masked as sound investing advice, that's just irresponsible in my opinion.
We're geeks, we're not insiders.
This is a sports message board, right? I don't think it's appropriate or accurate to claim that people are running on here to brag about anything. We're all collectors simply discussing what aspects of the hobby we find exciting and sharing our collections. We get it by now--you think prices are way too high and keep regurgitating the same snide remarks, even though you really have little or no fundamental knowledge of this part of the hobby to begin with.
No one knows where the unopened market is headed. It is clear that prices have risen sharply over the past two years. That much is a fact. Steve Hart has stated several times that obtaining vintage unopened product is the most daunting part of his business these days. I don't think see that changing or getting better going forward, and though I certainly don't know where the market will be next year, or two years, or ten years from now, I am enjoying collecting unopened product because I enjoy the hobby, not because I'm looking for a windfall or replacing my retirement fund.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>
<< <i>It really does seem the cheerleaders have an agenda opposite what they are posting. Someone collecting stuff doesn't run here and brag or excitedly post about how much stuff is going for(and people with the money to buy this stuff shouldn't really get a chubby because of a few hundred dollar price increase anyway). >>
I think an overwhelming majority of the unopened folks here on CU are completely malice-free. I think most are just excited about that portion of the hobby and that excitement spills over into posts laced with hyperbole. And even that, I have no problem with. I love unopened product and I love hyperbole. I use hyperbole the way other artists use paints and clays. But when the hyperbole turns into something masked as sound investing advice, that's just irresponsible in my opinion.
We're geeks, we're not insiders. >>
Elegantly stated.
<< <i>But supposing one wants a 1987 Topps wax box for their personal collection, they are not going to shell out $200. They have every right to if that is their will to do so, however, like most, they research a market value. What is the going rate on such an item? >>
It's easier to tag '87 Topps than it is for anything from the late 70's -- or even 1980 -- because there are copious amounts of it. There for a while I literally could not find a single box from '77-'79 on eBay, hence the current market price was the great unknown. As can be seen from the listings presented above, the resting spot for the earliest available material is quite fluid. To back that assertion, look below.
<< <i>The fact that they sold quickly says something of the vitality of the marketplace as well as the object itself. I am sure they would have sold just as fast at $700. But what about $800? >>
Yup, would've disappeared into the abyss @ $800 per. Perhaps not as quickly, but I think it would have been inevitable. A non-BBCE box flew for this amount just yesterday.
<< <i>I did not understand your last paragraph when you wrote " Last I checked, they're diametrically opposed when it comes to unopened material from the 70's." Who is "they"? And what does the sentence mean? >>
Meaning S&D are at opposite extremes from a high/low perspective. There's a dearth of unopened material to be had from the late 70's, and pent-up demand ready for absorption is off the charts. The perfect storm for what's transpiring right before our very eyes.
<< <i> Someone collecting stuff doesn't run here and brag or excitedly post about how much stuff is going for(and people with the money to buy this stuff shouldn't really get a chubby because of a few hundred dollar price increase anyway).
This is a sports message board, right? I don't think it's appropriate or accurate to claim that people are running on here to brag about anything. We're all collectors simply discussing what aspects of the hobby we find exciting and sharing our collections. We get it by now--you think prices are way too high and keep regurgitating the same snide remarks, even though you really have little or no fundamental knowledge of this part of the hobby to begin with.
No one knows where the unopened market is headed. It is clear that prices have risen sharply over the past two years. That much is a fact. Steve Hart has stated several times that obtaining vintage unopened product is the most daunting part of his business these days. I don't think see that changing or getting better going forward, and though I certainly don't know where the market will be next year, or two years, or ten years from now, I am enjoying collecting unopened product because I enjoy the hobby, not because I'm looking for a windfall or replacing my retirement fund. >>
Again spot on Tim. Referring to 1982DR as an anti argument for the recent price correction reveals a lack of understanding regarding the nuances of the unopened market; and no one is putting those cards in the same class as 1970s or even 1980 Topps waxboxes. I have a boatload of 82DR and will break them for enjoyment - I would be an idiot to have bought them for "speculation" IMO early 80s Fleer/DR have high cost versus fun ratio. That is, those years will be fun to break and the cards are still cheap to buy and relatively easy to find in comparison to Topps
<< <i>There's a dearth of unopened material to be had from the late 70's, and pent-up demand ready for absorption is off the charts. The perfect storm for what's transpiring right before our very eyes. >>
Remember the tulips.
<< <i>
<< <i>There's a dearth of unopened material to be had from the late 70's, and pent-up demand ready for absorption is off the charts. The perfect storm for what's transpiring right before our very eyes. >>
Remember the tulips. >>
I bought a 6 box 1979 rack case around 2006 for 2.5K (I believe), it is now, 7 years later probably north of 10K. This is over a 7 year period not 7 months. A comparable tulip bubble would put this case over 100K by next year. IMHO The price changes over the last couple years for 1970s unopened is just an accurate market adjustment due to the realization that the supply is thinner than we thought. The energy around 1980-85 is reasoned not speculative. People are trying to guage value with less information about the actual scarcity. So at this point we are all conjecturing. maybe some of the prices will re-adjust downward, perhaps some inevitably will. But where are the truly wild price swings that the naysayers are basing their warning on?
<< <i>And actually, after searching eBay, I do see much more 1975-1980 unopened product listed than I have in the past.
The fact that its not selling, even with BIN OBO and in some cases BBCE wrapping indicates there is on fact a current ceiling and is probably not much more than current BBCE pricing. >>
Links please? Trying to find 1975-1979 unopened boxes at anywhere near a reasonable price. Thanks.
After a 20 year break from collecting, I returned to the hobby about a year ago. I returned for two reasons.
1) I was finally getting started on cleaning my basement and setting up what's been intended as a display room for my cards, comics, toys, and other assorted oddities I've acquired through the years. As I went through my baseball cards (I haven't hit football or basketball yet), I started to get the bug.
2) My son is reaching tee ball age and is starting to enjoy watching sports with me. I decided I wanted to fill some holes in my raw collection, in hopes that I can use the cards to teach not only about baseball history, but about hobbies and collectibles. I learned a lot from collecting as a kid, and I'd be thrilled if he enjoys it.
Since I hadn't spent more than a grand in 20 years on a variety of occasional ripper boxes from Target or a raw vintage buy on eBay, I justified a budget in my mind and a list of my favorite cards, from a list of my favorite 150 mostly HOFers from 52-90, with a variety from each year.
I was flush with 80s, and before I left collecting I had turned much of my bulk 80s into 50s-60s, so most holes filled quick.
With the wife and kids heading out of town, I decided to stroll down memory lane with an 81T cello box and 81F wax, and decided to grab a few 77, 78, 79, 80 packs while at it. Though neither ripping or collecting unopened was an intended focus, by the end of the weekend I knew where the rest of my budget was going, and I kept one pack of everything sealed...cuz seriously "princess tricycles with streamers, yo" I was gonna keep my eyes open for deals on 71 - 85 unopened (stuck at 74 thus far) so that I/we have a stockpile for the future, as ripping into foil or plastic, just isn't the same as wax. And maybe I just like the simplicity of a time when we had 1-3 mfg's and each essentially only had a base set. When we got to 6+ mfg's printing multiple lines, it just gets to tough to follow, and I never really got into the inserts and such.
So I bought what a could from BBCE. And thanks to a handful of CU Board Members who have been kind enough to help me piece together much of my wish list at fair deals for quality product, I'm pretty comfortable with both what I have and what I've spent. And I'm especially thankful that they've released what they have to me in this climate. I feel they're paying it forward and appreciate it...and I'm glad they make a few bucks for maintaining a channel of reliable product.
As for ROI, the only thing I'm hoping for is years of fun rips with my kid. Anything we pull will be cool, but just gravy since I'm not a grader nor a seller. But the thought that maybe, just maybe with a little luck we hit a score, that's pretty cool too. And keeping one of everything unopened makes for a kick ass display, or so I've seen.
Thanks again to those that make it possible, and apologies for the giant post...just wanted to show that my/your dollars don't make sense to most, but only need to make sense to me/you. Please don't curse me for buying what I want at a price I think is fair based on my homework, level of desire, and confidence in seller.
I'm gonna go ride my tricycle, yo.