What would a 1990 Topps ERROR wax box sell for?

RookieWax

The "No Name On Front" Frank Thomas rookies have been selling for $2100+ in a PSA 8 (which is the minimum grade you would likely pull from a pack). Also, the other 12 errors you could pull would likely bring $100 to $200 or more each. So, just supposing.....if there was a box of error run wax packs out there, what do you feel the deep pocket wax buyers would be willing to pay per pack?

handyman

Is this a fantasy question? I guess the only hope to have this box optional would be to have a case that had several of these cards pulled from each box with a creditable witness. And that all boxes had a nn when pulled.
If so Id relate it to 1986-87 Fleer bk packs divided by 2.5 .

itzagoner

i think it would sell for the same as a unicorn.

RookieWax

<< <i>Is this a fantasy question? I guess the only hope to have this box optional would be to have a case that had several of these cards pulled from each box with a creditable witness. And that all boxes had a nn when pulled.
If so Id relate it to 1986-87 Fleer bk packs divided by 2.5 . >>



well suppose the owner of the box had good reason to believe that any of the 13 partially blackless cards (including the No Name Thomas card) that would be pulled from the box would indeed be the error versions...and would back that up with the offer of a full refund if one of those were pulled and was not the error version. Obviously, such a transaction would have to take place in person and not through the mail.

ReggieCleveland

If I remember correctly, the gentleman on the board who had a hoarde of 1990 Topps error wax was pulling both version from the same source. So, even if you cracked a box, opened a pack, and pulled a blackless, there's still no guaranty that the next card would be the blackless.

Therefore, I'm going with the unicorn analogy.

swartz1

Doesnt exist...

Stingray

First we need to decide where we are going to build this factory.

How about fantasy land.

RookieWax

<< <i>If I remember correctly, the gentleman on the board who had a hoarde of 1990 Topps error wax was pulling both version from the same source. So, even if you cracked a box, opened a pack, and pulled a blackless, there's still no guaranty that the next card would be the blackless.

Therefore, I'm going with the unicorn analogy. >>



Actually, that person would be me. And I believe that there is a valid reason there were error and non-error cards pulled from this same case. That wax case contained two open layers of loose packs (rather than enclosed wax boxes) and so it was likely hand-packed from packs coming down a conveyor - similar to the famous Topps factory photo that has been presented many times on these boards.

On the other hand, I think everyone here who has opened any regular Topps wax box from any year will agree that the cards clearly come from the same source with similar centering, etc.

otwcards

Several flaws in the presentation. First, packs from "error" boxes were mixed. Second, PSA 8 is NOT the minimum grade you would likely pull, assuming you pulled one. Lastly, PSA 8's have been trending in the $1500-2000 range with most closer to $1500 than $2000...

gemint

<< <i>First we need to decide where we are going to build this factory.

How about fantasy land. >>



Don't forget to grease the palms of the middle men or the boxes might arrive damaged.

RookieWax

<< <i>Several flaws in the presentation. First, packs from "error" boxes were mixed. Second, PSA 8 is NOT the minimum grade you would likely pull, assuming you pulled one. Lastly, PSA 8's have been trending in the $1500-2000 range with most closer to $1500 than $2000... >>



Read above about the mixed packs...and the most recent 3 sales have been north of $2000 in a PSA/BGS 8.

And again, suppose there was such a box.

swartz1

<< <i>First we need to decide where we are going to build this factory.

How about fantasy land. >>




Classic movie...very well played...

ReggieCleveland

<< <i>

<< <i>If I remember correctly, the gentleman on the board who had a hoarde of 1990 Topps error wax was pulling both version from the same source. So, even if you cracked a box, opened a pack, and pulled a blackless, there's still no guaranty that the next card would be the blackless.

Therefore, I'm going with the unicorn analogy. >>



Actually, that person would be me. And I believe that there is a valid reason there were error and non-error cards pulled from this same case. That wax case contained two open layers of loose packs (rather than enclosed wax boxes) and so it was likely hand-packed from packs coming down a conveyor - similar to the famous Topps factory photo that has been presented many times on these boards.

On the other hand, I think everyone here who has opened any regular Topps wax box from any year will agree that the cards clearly come from the same source with similar centering, etc. >>



So you're assuming that there's an anomaly as opposed to assuming what you had was the control? That's an awful large leap, considering it's coming from the person that would profit from such a theory.

More importantly, this seems to be an exercise in futility. Allow me to explain...

You're looking to sell a supposed unopened wax box of 1990 Topps "error" packs that could contain a Frank Thomas NNOF card. You're basing the price of the unopened on the price of slabbed individual cards. Even with your guarantee (which, by the way, you're setting yourself up for a HUGE con) why would someone pay an unopened premium for a product that the only way to prove it's valuable is to open it? If they don't open it, what good is your guarantee? See the dilemma?

CDsNuts

You knew this thread was going to be an instant train wreck when you started it, right? You had to've.

RookieWax

<< <i>You're looking to sell a supposed unopened wax box of 1990 Topps "error" packs that could contain a Frank Thomas NNOF card. You're basing the price of the unopened on the price of slabbed individual cards. Even with your guarantee (which, by the way, you're setting yourself up for a HUGE con) why would someone pay an unopened premium for a product that the only way to prove it's valuable is to open it? If they don't open it, what good is your guarantee? See the dilemma? >>



look...I completely understand the dilemma. And no, there is not a way one could "prove" a particular pack/box are from the error run...but rather one could only give reasons why they believe the packs in the particular box are error packs. And so with the "guarantee" I mentioned above, the purchaser would be purchasing to open...rather than save the packs. That is unless they opened a few packs, were convinced of the legitimacy, and then decided to keep the rest sealed.

And by the way, all of my packs from that error case have been opened.

ThoseBackPages

$20

WinPitcher

To've?

eagles33

I think this is just a statistics question. You need to determine the probability that there is a nnof in the box. Then you can price it. It sounds to me that there is so much skepticism surrounding the box you would never get "fair value" based on the probability you come up with. I think if someone owns a box like this they would prob be better off just opening it themself. The best option would be to contact Steve from bbce and try to work out a deal with him. Buyers would pay a premium if bbce listed a box like this. If they were packaged the way he ships the desert shield packs then I'm guessing people would buy them for 50-100 a pack just for the novelty. I pulled that number out of thin air and not based on any statistics.. You would only need to convince Steve that the box is unique and I think most buyers would accept his opinion as fact and pay a premium. That's my 2 cents anyways

vladguerrero

<< <i>To've? >>



That's princess tricycles with sparkly glittery streamers yo.

RookieWax

I appreciate the few serious and honest responses. And in hopes of generating more such responses, I am going to add that this is actually more than just a hypothetical question.

swartz1

I am not 100% caught up with the current happenings, but

if these boxes were around (which cant be proven)

they would have been ripped months/years ago for grading purposes...

CDsNuts

To've?

Inventing contractions is kind of a hobby of mine. You mightn't want to mess with me on this, I know what I'm talking about.

WinPitcher

lol Lee, I had forgot'n you are also a poet and songwriter.

@ Vlad,

bcubs

I've got 10 boxes sitting at home. Maybe I should rip them and see what happens. Is there a list somewhere with the other errors besides the Thomas that I should be looking for?

runningman

I've wondered about this myself. I have a ton of 1990 Topps unopened including racks and cellos. Did the variety come from all sources or just wax? It seems to me, I remember a box at the National a year or two ago that someone was selling by the pack that supposedly contained the error. I don't remember the price and I'm not sure but I think it was BBCE but I'm not sure. Anyway hypothetically, if I opened one of my wax cases and pulled a NNOF out of the first box, I would certainly want a premium for the others but like has been mentioned before, there is no way to prove something like that and most people wouldn't trust you and pay a premium, especially here on the boards no matter your reputation, many people here take themselves way way to serious. I appreciate you post and see nothing wrong with it. I don't see any reason for rude comments but that's the boards.

LarkinCollector

<< <i>I've got 10 boxes sitting at home. Maybe I should rip them and see what happens. Is there a list somewhere with the other errors besides the Thomas that I should be looking for? >>


JunkWaxGems

Old Thread From Here w/ All Blackless

Edit: Fixed 2nd Link

LarkinCollector

Knowing past provenance/pulls from your case, if you wanted to move product $150-200/box. If you want to maximize profit, try the BBCE route.

ReggieCleveland

The Desert Shield box analogy is flawed. With the Desert Shield box, one can open up, say, 4 packs, like Steve did, pull 60 DS cards from the packs, and feel comfortable enough with those odds to sell the unopened as DS. It also helps that Steve (and probably only Steve) has the type of reputation where he could move the product. No offense, but you don't have that reputation so your guarantee isn't exactly something I'm personally going to wager my money on.

Also, with the 1990 Topps error packs, you're essentially looking for, what, 12 cards form the set in order to confirm it's an error box? One could open up an entire box and not get a single representative of those 12 cards to examine. That wouldn't be out of the ordinary. Odds certainly aren't in someone's favor to pull two Frank Thomas cards from a single wax box -- error or corrected. So if you open until you find one and confirm, the odds drop dramatically that there's another one in the box. Not to mention that past history tells us that both error and corrected have come out of the same unopened source.

Could you sell a box to someone for some ridiculous amount of money? Sure, there's a sucker born every minute. Would it be responsible and accurate to promote ANY unopened 1990 Topps box as an "error box?" No it would not. But this is a moral issue that only you can answer for yourself.

Stingray

<< <i>

<< <i>I've got 10 boxes sitting at home. Maybe I should rip them and see what happens. Is there a list somewhere with the other errors besides the Thomas that I should be looking for? >>


JunkWaxGems

Old Thread From Here w/ All Blackless >>




Can't get 2nd link to open??

calgarycollector

I assume we are talking about these?

link

LarkinCollector

<< <i>Can't get 2nd link to open?? >>



Should be fixed now.

LarkinCollector

<< <i>I assume we are talking about these?

link >>



I don't think so. The NNOFs were found in standard wax. This smells like a Michigan test.

eagles33

<< <i>The Desert Shield box analogy is flawed. With the Desert Shield box, one can open up, say, 4 packs, like Steve did, pull 60 DS cards from the packs, and feel comfortable enough with those odds to sell the unopened as DS. It also helps that Steve (and probably only Steve) has the type of reputation where he could move the product..... >>



My ds analogy was to make this exact point.. If I buy a ds pack and remove it from the bbce shrink wrap I essentially has a 25 cent pack... If this person has a box that they believe has a higher probability of containing nnof cards his best and prob only option to monetize the box is work with Steve. If he is somehow able to convince bbce that he has something special than Im sure Steve would pay a premium since he is one of the few people that could sell it to the public at a premium. I'm not suggesting he would be able to prove this box is special or do i know enough about the printing and distribution process to know if its even possible... All I am saying is that working bbce is his best bet to get any sort of premium..

fergie23

RookieWax,
I would pay a couple hundred dollars for a box ($300-500) with a caveat that there be some sort of refund if any Thomas pulled was not a NNOF. I would of course open the box and post results. If I did pull a NNOF I would pay what I thought was fair value on a legit error box (~1k).
Are you indicating you have another error case?
I imagine if BBCE had these to sell he could easily get 1k for a box if not more. I know that if I had the BBCE guarantee I would be a buyer and ripper at $1k per box.

Robb

bziddy

I think the big issue you have selling these is, from my understanding, you can get the "error" cards AND the non-error cards in the same box. The plates that were impacted by the problem produced cards that were mixed with cards from other (non-impacted) plates.

So even if you pull a NNOF and a Biggio out of box 1. Box 2 might have a regular Thomas, but other 'errors' or possibly no other errors. It would be a tough sell IMO, even with BBCE clout.

ReggieCleveland

<< <i>

<< <i>The Desert Shield box analogy is flawed. With the Desert Shield box, one can open up, say, 4 packs, like Steve did, pull 60 DS cards from the packs, and feel comfortable enough with those odds to sell the unopened as DS. It also helps that Steve (and probably only Steve) has the type of reputation where he could move the product..... >>



My ds analogy was to make this exact point.. If I buy a ds pack and remove it from the bbce shrink wrap I essentially has a 25 cent pack... If this person has a box that they believe has a higher probability of containing nnof cards his best and prob only option to monetize the box is work with Steve. If he is somehow able to convince bbce that he has something special than Im sure Steve would pay a premium since he is one of the few people that could sell it to the public at a premium. I'm not suggesting he would be able to prove this box is special or do i know enough about the printing and distribution process to know if its even possible... All I am saying is that working bbce is his best bet to get any sort of premium.. >>



In theory, I agree with you. But I'm not seeing a scenario where such claims could be made. I know RookieWax is claiming that he can say with an amount of certainty that his box is an error but I've yet to hear how that claim could be feasible.

LarkinCollector

<< <i>In theory, I agree with you. But I'm not seeing a scenario where such claims could be made. I know RookieWax is claiming that he can say with an amount of certainty that his box is an error but I've yet to hear how that claim could be feasible. >>



Probably because he pulled the first instance of many of the other blackless and several NNOFs from the case a few years back:

Link

esquiresports

This must be the listing RookieWax is referring to, as (1) the packs are distinguishable from other packs, and (2) the listing says the seller believes these are NNOF packs. If there was a guarantee that the packs would not contain corrected errors, I would think you could be looking at about $1000 per box.

eBay 1990 Topps Test Packs - NNO Claim

LarkinCollector

<< <i>This must be the listing RookieWax is referring to, as (1) the packs are distinguishable from other packs, and (2) the listing says the seller believes these are NNOF packs. If there was a guarantee that the packs would not contain corrected errors, I would think you could be looking at about $1000 per box.

eBay 1990 Topps Test Packs - NNO Claim >>



Not the packaging NNOFs have been found in (and was likely a test packaging done much later in the product run), people just like to include that in any 1990 Topps unopened listing to keyword spam or just plain ignorance:

1990 Vending Case NNOF

ReggieCleveland

<< <i>

<< <i>In theory, I agree with you. But I'm not seeing a scenario where such claims could be made. I know RookieWax is claiming that he can say with an amount of certainty that his box is an error but I've yet to hear how that claim could be feasible. >>



Probably because he pulled the first instance of many of the other blackless and several NNOFs from the case a few years back:

Link >>



I'm not sure what this proves. By his own admission, RookieWax has opened all the packs from that find. So whatever he thinks he has is from a new source.

LarkinCollector

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>In theory, I agree with you. But I'm not seeing a scenario where such claims could be made. I know RookieWax is claiming that he can say with an amount of certainty that his box is an error but I've yet to hear how that claim could be feasible. >>



Probably because he pulled the first instance of many of the other blackless and several NNOFs from the case a few years back:

Link >>



I'm not sure what this proves. By his own admission, RookieWax has opened all the packs from that find. So whatever he thinks he has is from a new source. >>


Sorry, just realized who I was replying to.

ReggieCleveland

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>In theory, I agree with you. But I'm not seeing a scenario where such claims could be made. I know RookieWax is claiming that he can say with an amount of certainty that his box is an error but I've yet to hear how that claim could be feasible. >>



Probably because he pulled the first instance of many of the other blackless and several NNOFs from the case a few years back:

Link >>



I'm not sure what this proves. By his own admission, RookieWax has opened all the packs from that find. So whatever he thinks he has is from a new source. >>


Sorry, just realized who I was replying to. >>



Am I wrong? Maybe I'm missing a step here. Is there a way to determine if 1990 Topps unopened has the NNOF inside without opening it? This is an honest question.

RookieWax

Several things:

This box I am currently talking about is a regular green wax box and did NOT come from the case I had back in 2009(those packs from 2009 were all opened shortly after I opened that case). And remember that case was NOT a regular wax case and DID NOT contain the regular green wax boxes. It contained just 2 OPEN layers of LOOSE wax packs. It clearly looked like something that needed to be packed by hand. I feel it was those circumstances that resulted in me pulling BOTH error and non-error cards from that case.

I have several good reasons, which I would rather not share at this time on these boards, to believe that this almost full box (and I have only the one box by the way) contains nothing but error packs.

Now consider that you are going to likely pull 6 to 9 error cards(even though some could be doubles) with values on the "Partial Blackless" cards likely to be in the $150 to $250 range or higher ( I am basing this on offers I received in past "best offer" ebay auctions..one in which I actually received a much higher offer than that on one of the Marcus Lawton errors)....along with the possible $2000 to $4000+ No Name Thomas rookie(depending on the grade). And also consider what boxes of 1978 to 1980 Topps are going for, which people are paying and ripping to pull nothing more than $100 to $200 worth of loose cards. Then considering the uniqueness and rarity of this such wax box, I think the per pack price is in a range much higher than anything I am seeing posted here.

Additionally, as I have said earlier, the only way the sale of this type of box could possibly work is if the buyer were to buy the packs in person to open (at least some of the packs anyway) on the spot of purchase so that the guarantee can work.

I actually considered the idea of contacting BBCE to somehow authenticate that these are error packs...but how many packs would need to be opened to convince Steve? And at that point, how many packs would be left unopened? Would the info I have help at all? Could he confirm by the consistency/positioning of the folds and seals that these packs are consistent with all being from the same original box?

And lastly, I am not offering it for sale. It is staying in my safety deposit box and I am not sure when or even if I will become interested in selling ...I was just throwing it out there to get some ideas from others on the value of such packs and also thought the topic would be an interesting discussion piece given its uniqueness.

Porkins

Rookiewax,
(Although I love it, I'm not going to reread the whole NNOF thread again to look and see if this answer was ever presented) Was there ever any solid evidence that blackless errors originated in anything other than wax from retail display cases like the one you had? IIRC the wax in these cases was loosely stacked and not in boxes. This may be a stupid question as I guess packs from this run could have theoretically been used to fill wax boxes also, but has anyone ever proven this to be the case firsthand? I don't mean to derail your original question, as I find it an interesting one also, I was just curious if you were just asking hypothetically, or if a 36 pack wax box containing blackless errors is even possible.
Thanks

Edit: Looks like you pretty much answered this in your above post I hadn't seen.
Thanks!

Bosox1976

I love to rip, and would probably pay $50 per pack for onesie-twosies, or $100 per pack for a true full box (not a rebuild) - assuming it could be proven somehow. Obviously, you are hunting one card - like ripping 93 SP, but there are a few more "decent" pulls - so I would assume that the NNOF was long gone on anything but a pristine box, and even then your odds are less than 100% given number of cards/collation.

A partial box, as described, would be fun - but I'd assume long odds - and bid accordingly.

Is there a sequence to 1990 topps in general? If so, I'd bid even less as cherry-picking would seem all the more possible.

A good theoretical exercise - but, as you can tell from the general tone here, an incredibly hard sell. So, I'd say - if you've got it, rip it - because finding the right buyer at the right price will be too hard.

fergie23

RookieWax,
Given that information about the box you are better off opening the box yourself. Since you apparently have a value in mind what do you think the box is worth? Also how are you the only person anyone on this board has ever heard of that managed to find a partial case of NNOF Thomas packs and now apparently a separate and distinct box? Did someone contact you or did you luck into it again? Seems like a story many folks would be interested in.

Robb

RookieWax

<< <i>RookieWax,
Given that information about the box you are better off opening the box yourself. Since you apparently have a value in mind what do you think the box is worth? Also how are you the only person anyone on this board has ever heard of that managed to find a partial case of NNOF Thomas packs and now apparently a separate and distinct box? Did someone contact you or did you luck into it again? Seems like a story many folks would be interested in.

Robb >>



Pure luck...proof that "lighting" can strike twice. After finding the errors in that retail wax case back in 2009, I figured that must have been the only source of the errors. Obviously, I no longer feel that way.

UnwoundSage

<< <i>Is there a sequence to 1990 topps in general? If so, I'd bid even less as cherry-picking would seem all the more possible. >>



Yes and it is consistent throughout all packs (wax, cello, rack). 1990 Topps wax are easy to see name on top and bottom although the sequence does not take into account the possibility of cards flipping and changing sequence.

Maurice

no comment

esquiresports

I didn't realize the value of the other black less cards, so I spoke to soon. If the numbers you are suggesting for those are solid, then yes, I could see you getting possibly $100 per pack at the National. I think it is a tricky sell, and there is no way BBCE could authenticate then, no matter how many you opened.

Keep in mind that a money-back guarantee of no corrected cards probably wouldn't fly, at least to anyone who gives it a couple seconds' thought. Anyone could mix in a bunch of corrected packs, realizing that a corrected card is only likely to appear in every fifth pack or so. Dilute the boxes with an equal number of corrected packs and generate an extra $3000 or so (at $100 per pack). I would want a 5x money back guarantee.

LarkinCollector

<< <i>RookieWax,
Given that information about the box you are better off opening the box yourself. Since you apparently have a value in mind what do you think the box is worth? Also how are you the only person anyone on this board has ever heard of that managed to find a partial case of NNOF Thomas packs and now apparently a separate and distinct box? Did someone contact you or did you luck into it again? Seems like a story many folks would be interested in.

Robb >>


+1
He's never going to be able to provide enough proof to get whatever looking for in unopened state. My guess, he's looking to get $3500-4000 for the box. For the gamble, that price isn't realistic IMHO.