No Taper

derryb

Jumped all in with USLV at market open thinking that QE taper was by now priced in. What a pleasant surprise from my buddy Ben this afternoon. Thanks Bennie.

nibanny

You can always count on him!

piecesofme

Jumped all in with USLV at market open thinking that QE taper was by now priced in. What a pleasant surprise from my buddy Ben this afternoon. Thanks Bennie.

Not real time posting, doesn't count saying something like this AFTER the announcement LMAO
j/k...nice call if in fact you did.

Pokermandude

Peter Schiff was right again!

Schiff's video from yesterday

derryb

<< <i>Jumped all in with USLV at market open thinking that QE taper was by now priced in. What a pleasant surprise from my buddy Ben this afternoon. Thanks Bennie.

Not real time posting, doesn't count saying something like this AFTER the announcement LMAO
j/k...nice call if in fact you did. >>


Counts where it matters. Just took a very nice profit (monster box) selling half of it.

VanHalen

SLV rocketed up 5%, over a buck, in minutes.

Ben's statement is fairly optimistic. Why is the tone of his voice so weak though? He sounds flat-out tired.

piecesofme

Someone known for famous financial snipets once said, (something like) "he who brags about his own financial well being is more often than not exagerrating the truth, in cases of truth, others will do that for him"?

Humility is lost on these boards at times. I miss it.

derryb

you asked for real time posting, i gave it to you.
I'm entitled, after eating a lot of silver crow, to brag on a great stroke of luck.

You still insist on the attacks, why am I not surprised. Maturity is lost on these boards at times. I miss it.

carew4me

I am with POM, anyone could post after the fact.

I would have been impressed if you said you were all in this morning.

Not saying your making it up, but post before announcement removes any doubt.

derryb

your doubt (and PeMe's) is irrelevent. It was a lucky call and I wanted to share it.

I could care less who is and who isn't impressed, you're all total strangers.

SmallTownCoins

I dont know how uslv works...
How much did you have to risk to gain a monster box ($13,000) ?

mhammerman

A win is a win. For those of us that have ever suffered having our butts served to us by the silver bear, a win is still a win any way it comes to you.

Baley

Is this turning into the brag thread? I think I've mentioned PCYC once or twice in the past 5 years Chart

VanHalen

<< <i>A win is a win. For those of us that have ever suffered having our butts served to us by the silver bear, a win is still a win any way it comes to you. >>



Yep, and derryb posting some success is no different than posting an equity chart that has gone up and stating, "I bought low!". Hey, congrats to derryb.

Now about Ben, the taper target is now 6.5% U3 AND 2.0% inflation. That means at least another year of $85 billion/month of QE and another $1 trillion of The Fed's balance sheet by next summer.

Justlooking

Good on you. Now, what's the price of gold going to be tomorrow?

derryb

<< <i>I dont know how uslv works...
How much did you have to risk to gain a monster box ($13,000) ? >>


PM sent with the math, my good fortune appears to have ruffled certain feathers.

DoubleEagle59

<< <i>I am with POM, anyone could post after the fact.

I would have been impressed if you said you were all in this morning.

Not saying your making it up, but post before announcement removes any doubt. >>



I for one happen to believe derryb.

Congrats derryb on your good call!!

derryb

<< <i>doesn't count saying something like this AFTER the announcement >>


It's not like I wasn't prepared before the announcement. You probably were too busy whining to pay attention to my earlier posts:

Sept. 12, 4:11 PM "The big boys, particularly JPM, remain extremely long in gold, oil is up, dollar index shows no strength. What we are seeing is preliminary panic that FED will taper next week. They may do so, but it will most likely just be a small, token gesture and gold will continue to provide dollar insurance. If they don't taper at all gold will have a field day in lieu of the pre FED meeting declines. I personally think it all amounts to just another tree shaking to free up physical gold at a cheap price."

Sept. 13, 9:05 AM: "current dip is most likely a result of upcoming FED meeting next week where it is expected some taper will be announced. If it is I expect it to be token, probably a $15B monthly reduction. Most of us know that if tapering does occur, conditions dictate it be temporary and will only provide an opportunity to eventually come back with more than the current $85B a month. I suspect the FED will soon be buying the half trillion owed to the government in student loans; the other half trillion owed to privates sources will be eventually causing a hit in the private sector. Metals, in the mean time, will suffer along with an eventual drag on equities. News will take over temporary metal price movement, but fundamentals will continue to drive their positive long term outlook."

derryb

<< <i>what's the price of gold going to be tomorrow? >>


Any short term price prediction on these boards is nothing but a guess. My guess is we will see strong over night asian action and a hammer dropping sometime tomorrow during US hours. Only the FED and JPM know for sure.

OperationButter

Gratz on the big score!

I was really hoping for a smack down today so I could buy more. I had my finger on the purchase of roughly 6oz of gold last night and decided to hold off in hopes of the taper driving prices lower. Now I would have to pay over $500 for the same order if I want it. Boo

carew4me

Chillax Bra.

I am happy for you.

just saying it would be more impressive if you posted before the announcement.

As you said , we are all strangers.

You could be some psychotic old lady who needs attention for all I know.

DrBuster

Would have made the same play. Who honestly believed they were going to start tapering...not this guy. They're not done putting liens on every piece of property in the country yet.

Congrats db! Sell me a half roll when that box comes in

piecesofme

You still insist on the attacks

Attacks? You consider that an attack? WOW!
I'll call it an observation made on a public forum that lacked timeliness, by you . A kin to what I said here in this thread on Sept. 12. Hindsight is easy and can be manipulated...oh I better stop, I'm attacking you again.

I am sorry that you just happen to be the self inflicted poster child of what I said on Sept. 12. It has to stop somewhere. One saying that they did something that was never remotely discussed and it happens to have turned out that persons way after the event that maoved it is not credible, by me. But who am I? So good for you derry, Like I ALREADY said in THIS thread...Nice job if in fact that's what was done. Some people just dont know how to take a compliment.

Yep, and derryb posting some success is no different than posting an equity chart that has gone up and stating, "I bought low!"

Really??? ok, I bought 550 shares of GOOG for $91/share on the day of its public offering and currently still own all those shares. How am I doing?
Hopefully you will see the point attempting to be made.

SmallTownCoins

If this was a brag thread, Thank you, we need more of them, I don,t know anyone here buying this stuff so they can lose money...
Show me the way brother, baby needs new shoe,s.. :-)

piecesofme

Yeah, that's the professional way to deal with it, block me from private messages. That's what we call from the old school chumping out, but that's ok.
I saved my reply back to you after your private message tirade for a later date.

derryb

OPA

<< <i>

<< <i>I am with POM, anyone could post after the fact.

I would have been impressed if you said you were all in this morning.

Not saying your making it up, but post before announcement removes any doubt. >>



I for one happen to believe derryb.

Congrats derryb on your good call!! >>



Although I'm usually at odds at his predictions.....I also believe in derryb's great call. I have my doubts about his overnight call though. We only regained what we've lost in the last 5 days and I suspect today's gain will be short lived.

derryb

<< <i>Although I'm usually at odds at his predictions.....I also believe in derryb's great call. I have my doubts about his overnight call though. We only regained what we've lost in the last 5 days and I suspect today's gain will be short lived. >>


Were you clear on what I said?: "My guess is we will see strong over night asian action and a hammer dropping sometime tomorrow during US hours."

jmski52

Nothing has changed. When I have to listen to the drivel that somehow he cut the deficit by 50% in a year, I know that we'll never get the basic facts about the economy until the day it collapses. Clearly, we are on our own.

Good timing, derryb.

roadrunner

<< <i>Jumped all in with USLV at market open thinking that QE taper was by now priced in. What a pleasant surprise from my buddy Ben this afternoon. Thanks Bennie. >>



Just a couple days ago your posted odds in silver were 80% downside 20% upside. Big change. And that concerned me since I was essentially fully long in miners. Things looked very bleak for PMs last night on the dip to $1292 and then this morning as silver was pushed even lower to $21.20. I was already fully long from earlier in the week so could do nothing but sit and watch. Crazy day. Thought for sure I was going to be toast last night. 114 MILL GDX shares traded...50% than the previous record. An insane day for sure. Glad you scored on USLV. Big risk....big reward.

jdimmick

I am usually in the bear camp when It comes to metals. For the longest time, I have been calling for tapering to start about oct. I thought for sure they were going to mention it this meeting. However, just about 2-3 days ago, I had a suspicion that they were not going to taper just yet. Latest economic news and the impending change to yellin possibly among several other factors. But the biggest, being I just got a call from a long time customer on Monday worrying about the silver he had and the upcoming taper. I bought 3200 face from him. I was so worried about the potential drop that may come, I literally drove it the disposal place that afternoon. Had I held , I could have made quite a few extra bucks with todays jump. Oh well!

ksammut

Congrats derryb!

CaptHenway

UNSPLUNGE!

LukeMarshall

So apparently the September timeframe was a bit off... turns out it's actually December!!!

Sooo.... Remember, December

Not sure why I posted this but.... yall have fun/

Link to Super Reputable Imformation

Coyn

<< <i>

"Ever since June, the media have invented a myth. This myth is that Bernanke and other members of the FOMC have decided that in September, they will taper the expansion of the monetary base. There is not one word from Bernanke that he or anybody else contemplates any such deadline for September. This is purely an invention of the media. It has been repeated so often that the poor schnooks who write the articles really do believe that there is some kind of documentary evidence for September as the key date...."

The media was nursing this falsehood that the QE taper was going to hit this month. One economic commentator had this to say on it a few days ago: >>




I totally agree. The media kept pushing that it was a done deal but I kept thinking that is NOT what Bernanke said. He said it was still "data dependent". The dam media always wants to create a story rather than report it. I didn't buy or sell prior anyway, I went all in years ago and every time I've try to time the market I get screwed so i'm in the "buy and Hold" crowd.

OPA

<< <i>

<< <i>Although I'm usually at odds at his predictions.....I also believe in derryb's great call. I have my doubts about his overnight call though. We only regained what we've lost in the last 5 days and I suspect today's gain will be short lived. >>


Were you clear on what I said?: "My guess is we will see strong over night asian action and a hammer dropping sometime tomorrow during US hours." >>



Perfectly clear. If you re read my comment: "I have my doubts about his overnight call" As it turned out, you were correct.....not a strong action, but a gain nevertheless. Only time will if it will drop during US hours.

HATTRICK

derryb,

I see what you mean from the other forum. Congrats on the good move. I was happy with the Fed's news.

I also did my first monster box a little over a month ago when price was slightly lower than the low before yesterdays

news. I did not sweat the fall after the Syria BS as I had a hunch the taper would be delayed. Now comes the fun of

picking the next top for the sell before the cycle changes again. I think we have time and will get some help from the Congress.

HATTRICK

<< <i>The media was nursing this falsehood that the QE taper was going to hit this month. One economic commentator had this to say on it a few days ago:

"Ever since June, the media have invented a myth. This myth is that Bernanke and other members of the FOMC have decided that in September, they will taper the expansion of the monetary base. There is not one word from Bernanke that he or anybody else contemplates any such deadline for September. This is purely an invention of the media. It has been repeated so often that the poor schnooks who write the articles really do believe that there is some kind of documentary evidence for September as the key date...." >>



The only real change is the beginning of fear of the long term implications, however the original reasoning for QE and the factors that inspired it remain.

ricko

Congratulations derryb.... wish I had that kind of insight....or even had good luck..... Cheers, RickO

guitarwes

No doubt Ricko.

Some guys have all the luck. Almost as if they were prepared for luck to come their way or something.......

Congrats derryb for a good play. You should have enough green boxes now to build a nice fort.

Justlooking

Wow. Gold.

jmski52

Remember how much angst and gnashing of teeth there was over "Sequestration"? That was $85 Billion, the same exact amount of money creation as in 1 Month's worth of QE. Remember how the bottom was going to drop out of the economy if they dared to stop spending faster and only authorized ***a smaller increase*** in spending?

It's exactly the same right now. They have a program of INCREASED SPENDING that's *not working* and they are afraid to discontinue it.

Let's consider what the "taper" might be. A nominal decrease in the rate of debt monetization when the rate is already high. The markets took this message as a "green light", when it's really not much more than another imaginary signpost along the way to an imaginary economy with imaginary wealth creation.

It didn't result in an increase in the production of food or energy, and it didn't result in a decrease in unemployment.

My opinion is that a $55 jump in gold prices due to this non-announcement about what "would have been" a moderation of an ill-begotten policy - is almost as meaningless as a $55 drop in gold prices due to JPM banging the close or Goldman Sachs telling their clients to expect lower gold prices while buying up forward contracts.

Follow your own money management plan and don't try to trade with, or against these guys. They aren't on your side, so ignore them. There's certainly no reason to trust what they are telling us.

FistFullOfDollars

When it comes to the market, everyone who plays wins and loses. The secret is to win more $$$ than you lose and if you are like me you have have won and lost a lot.


Congrats on a good trade derryb!!!

VanHalen

Warren Buffett interviewed on CNBC this afternoon. He said keeping interest rates low is "incredibly important" in keeping equity valuations up. He was quite honest, QE and ZIRP must continue if we are to maintain current equity valuations; that is unless we experience real, consistent growth in the economy.

OperationButter

I posting this link because of the video that in embedded in the article. I dont know how to link the video without the article so here it is

Link

Start it at 8 minutes, its only 9 minutes in length and is very good and well worth the few minutes it takes to watch it.

Pokermandude

OB, Thanks for the Stanley Druckenmiller video there. He says some of the exact same things as Peter Schiff, without sounding like a total nutbar.

OperationButter

No prob.

Aside from his stumbling when he mentions how it is good for him, I think it was said brilliantly.

US vs THEM mentality (reality?) in full force

yellowkid

When I was a bit younger I would trade, some nice hits, but some dogs too. Remember Worldcom? A friend keeps "play" money in an account he trades with. Sometimes after a couple of drinks he will admit "adding to the account." He was worth a million dollars in '99, and a few months later about $350k. I begged him to take some off the table but he said he didn't get to a million hedging his bets. I just stick with my asset allocation now, mostly indexed but I do keep some in a couple of sectors. I've been waiting for more of a price drop to buy some gold, metal this time. I thought we would see some more downside. I think we may still. I'm long term bullish though.

derryb

<< <i>Warren Buffett interviewed on CNBC this afternoon. He said keeping interest rates low is "incredibly important" in keeping equity valuations up. He was quite honest, QE and ZIRP must continue if we are to maintain current equity valuations; that is unless we experience real, consistent growth in the economy. >>


Maintaining current equity valuations via QE and ZIRP is not a fix, it's a band aid that primarily benefits those that don't need financial help. When it falls off things will be much worse than taking the pain now as we should have done in 2009. Best thing for the long term financial health of the US economy is to rip the band aid off, everyone say "ouch," and let the festered wound heal more quickly. The longer the snowball gets pushed up the hill, the bigger it will become and the more damage it will create on the way down. Economic policy is not fixing the economy, it is postponing the mounting pain that will resullt from all of the economic meddling.

OperationButter

<< <i>

<< <i>Warren Buffett interviewed on CNBC this afternoon. He said keeping interest rates low is "incredibly important" in keeping equity valuations up. He was quite honest, QE and ZIRP must continue if we are to maintain current equity valuations; that is unless we experience real, consistent growth in the economy. >>


Maintaining current equity valuations via QE and ZIRP is not a fix, it's a band aid that primarily benefits those that don't need financial help. When it falls off things will be much worse than taking the pain now as we should have done in 2009. Best thing for the long term financial health of the US economy is to rip the band aid off, everyone say "ouch," and let the festered wound heal more quickly. The longer the snowball gets pushed up the hill, the bigger it will become and the more damage it will create on the way down. Economic policy is not fixing the economy, it is postponing the mounting pain that will resullt from all of the economic meddling. >>



With stupid decision after stupid decision it seems to me like they want the US to fail. Its financial te**orism ( /wave to the NSA)

HATTRICK

Acquiring assets instead of liabilities is the key to financial growth.

Duie, Cheatem & Howe
Financial Advisors