<< <i>you really can't get the same price that BBCE does when you decide you want to sell. Even with BBCE shrinkwrap. >>
I find this statement to be odd. If Steve has a box on his site for $250 that I want, but by the time I go to order it there are no more in stock, I wouldn't hesitate to pay that (or even slightly more knowing the next time BBCE restocks they may raise their price) to someone else for a BBCE wrapped box.
To me that's a BIT like saying the SMR price is only valid (yeah, I know, but work with here!) when PSA grades the card and still has it in their possession. Both BBCE's wrap and PSA's slab are indicative of the fact the content has been authenticated & evaluated. To me the premium comes with their expert opinion and not who possesses the item afterwards.
Just as I inspect some PSA slabs for signs of tampering, I might do the same on the BBCE wrap if purchased from a third party, but who I am buying a PSA slabbed card or BBCE wrapped box, doesn't influence what I pay. Am I in the minority here?
I'd say that in many cases (like the 79 cello box that sold tonight) that you may get MORE than what Steve gets for vintage unopened that's in demand. A 78 cello box was put up on ebay with a BIN of $850 about a month ago. I think it lasted about 15 minutes. Steve was last selling them for $750 about 6 months ago, IIRC.
To be fair, I don't think this market will continue rising at the pace it has over the past 18-24 months. But right now, it is white hot and there's no dispute about that.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>There is NO DOUBT the "investor" has entered the un-opened world. I would say we are at the point where a good percentage of collectors are being priced out of the market. >>
Investors external to the hobby itself or collectors who see unopened material with a mix of investment potential, collectability, and nostalgia?
I don't know about collectors getting priced out of the market. One of the great things about this hobby is you can participate on just about any budget. We have everything from broke full-time students to freakin' NFL starters on this board alone! It's hard to get priced out of the market/hobby... but for most of us, we are already priced out of what we would LIKE to collect and settle for what we CAN collect that we like.
So, yeah, a lot of people can't/won't drop $39K for a 1975 mini case. How about a box instead? Still too much, then how about a graded pack? Or they can throw in the towel on unopened 1975 minis completely and build a low grade set or consider cheaper unopened options.
I don't think anyone could dispute that it's very hot. The question is WHY so hot, despite no hard pop data and no longer any strong correlation between price and likely value of contents? As another poster said above, is it "irrational exuberance" or is it based on something else that some people are not seeing? That's what's so interesting.
I don't think anyone could dispute that it's very hot. The question is WHY so hot, despite no hard pop data and no longer any strong correlation between price and likely value of contents? As another poster said above, is it "irrational exuberance" or is it based on something else that some people are not seeing? That's what's so interesting. >>
Why is unopened so hot right now? Why is a PSA 9 75 Brett RC suddenly a 1K card when it traded for half that a year ago? It's hard to pinpoint, but as an unopened collector for almost 20 years now, I've seen the unopened market ebb and flow over the past two decades, and I don't think there's any question that a primary reason for rising prices is that quality unopened product, particularly pre-1980 stuff, is becoming very difficult to find, and in the collectibles market, scarcity is going to drive prices upward. A decade ago you could fairly easily find unopened packs from the 1960s (and even the 1950s) if you made the effort. Now, that stuff has become virtually extinct, so I think collectors are focusing on acquiring 70s product before that, too, disappears. Steve will be the first to tell you how tough finding pre-1980 stuff has become, and at the National, where normally you do see that stuff on display, the options were very few and far between.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
If its collectors, nostalgia etc, why wasn't stuff flying like this a year ago with prices half what they are now. The economy has not substantially changed in the last year other than perhaps near term inflationary concerns have diminished a great deal.
I suspect an effort to corner the market(don't make me go into OCD manifesting itself as seeing patterns where no one else does). i think there's a host of problems with doing that starting with aforementioned unknown quantities along with potentially severe quality issues.
[idespite no hard pop data and no longer any strong correlation between price and likely value of contents?]
I know some collectors out there make this correlation, but as an unopened collector, I am not so much interested in the sum of the parts as the package itself. A 1c penny pack contains 1 visible wax AND gum stained card, but certain issues command insane amounts not because anyone is foolish enough to dream about a valuable card within, but because the packs themselves are so tough to find!
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>If its collectors, nostalgia etc, why wasn't stuff flying like this a year ago with prices half what they are now. The economy has not substantially changed in the last year other than perhaps near term inflationary concerns have diminished a great deal.
I suspect an effort to corner the market(don't make me go into OCD manifesting itself as seeing patterns where no one else does). i think there's a host of problems with doing that starting with aforementioned unknown quantities along with potentially severe quality issues. >>
On the contrary, stuff WAS flying off the shelf a year ago, so much so that prices have risen since then to support a new market floor.
But let's face it--people who choose to spend money on pieces of cardboard, however rare or valuable, must have a certain amount of discretionary income to begin with, so I don't think you can apply economic rationale to baseball card collecting. Stocks and bonds? Yes. Shares of Collector's Universe? Yes, too. But not baseball cards.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
I am a buyer at $30K for a case Patrick Bateman and I can sell this case in one day for a profit guaranteed. Really anyone can do this if they had a case.
Looking for high grade rookie cards and unopened boxes/cases
<< <i>I am a buyer at $30K for a case Patrick Bateman and I can sell this case in one day for a profit guaranteed. Really anyone can do this if they had a case. >>
+1.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
You make a really interesting point with those old (and very cool) 1c packs. Or for that matter all those 50s/60s packs. I can totally see there not needing to be a correlation between contents and price there, with collectors seeking that item itself as its own unique entity, almost a piece of pop art (for say a pack run), independent of contents. Those are also often authenticated and slabbed with pop data, which helps as well. The late 70s case for example does remain a different animal.
<< <i>The late 70s case for example does remain a different animal. >>
But that's according to your perspective, and really just an opinion. Some people are not drawn to collecting low grade Babe Ruth or pre-war cards either. Some of those collectors think anything printyed by Topps after 1952 is not worth pursuing, but the great part of this hobby is that it appeals to all kinds of collectors from all kinds of economic backgrounds. For some, spending 39K on a 75 mini case is absurd. For others, it's a great pickup. I don't think you can rationalize either opinion to the other side's satisfaction.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>The late 70s case for example does remain a different animal. >>
But that's according to your perspective, and really just an opinion. Some people are not drawn to collecting low grade Babe Ruth or pre-war cards either. Some of those collectors think anything printyed by Topps after 1952 is not worth pursuing, but the great part of this hobby is that it appeals to all kinds of collectors from all kinds of economic backgrounds. For some, spending 39K on a 75 mini case is absurd. For others, it's a great pickup. I don't think you can rationalize either opinion to the other side's satisfaction. >>
Do you think buying that case for 39K and immediately putting it up for sale for 45K (or pick a different amount higher than 39k) would get you a quick profit? I can't relate to buys like that but were I a rich man I might try that. I actually wonder this type of scenario about a lot of the hard to get stuff that shows up on BBCE site.
<< <i>I would wager you could sell a 1975 Topps unopened case quicker than you could sell a PSA 7 Mantle card. Look at how many boxes Steve went through this week at $2000 a box. That tells me all I need to know about this sector of the baseball card market. People want/like opening and collecting boxes. >>
A key point in Patrick Bateman's original post that should not be overlooked is that you really can't get the same price that BBCE does when you decide you want to sell. Even with BBCE shrinkwrap.
Steve Hart sold a case of 1975 Topps Minis for ~39k at the National. I'd wager you couldn't get 25k for that same exact case. >>
Steve's buy price is likely higher than that. >>
Didn't mintmoondog say he recently sold a case of 1975 Minis to BBCE for 19k?
<< <i>The late 70s case for example does remain a different animal. >>
But that's according to your perspective, and really just an opinion. Some people are not drawn to collecting low grade Babe Ruth or pre-war cards either. Some of those collectors think anything printyed by Topps after 1952 is not worth pursuing, but the great part of this hobby is that it appeals to all kinds of collectors from all kinds of economic backgrounds. For some, spending 39K on a 75 mini case is absurd. For others, it's a great pickup. I don't think you can rationalize either opinion to the other side's satisfaction. >>
Do you think buying that case for 39K and immediately putting it up for sale for 45K (or pick a different amount higher than 39k) would get you a quick profit? I can't relate to buys like that but were I a rich man I might try that. I actually wonder this type of scenario about a lot of the hard to get stuff that shows up on BBCE site. >>
I thought 39K was high retail, so if I were the buyer of that case, I would plan on holding it for a while. Then again, I never thought I'd see 75 mini cello boxes sell for $3,500 or 75 mini boxes sell for $2,200 (and those figures are not even BBCE sale numbers), so who knows in this market. But I doubt you could get 45K for a 75 mini case right now, unless Hal Steinbrenner (who is buying unopened now, too, lol) gets involved in the bidding!
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>I would wager you could sell a 1975 Topps unopened case quicker than you could sell a PSA 7 Mantle card. Look at how many boxes Steve went through this week at $2000 a box. That tells me all I need to know about this sector of the baseball card market. People want/like opening and collecting boxes. >>
A key point in Patrick Bateman's original post that should not be overlooked is that you really can't get the same price that BBCE does when you decide you want to sell. Even with BBCE shrinkwrap.
Steve Hart sold a case of 1975 Topps Minis for ~39k at the National. I'd wager you couldn't get 25k for that same exact case. >>
Steve's buy price is likely higher than that. >>
Didn't mintmoondog say he recently sold a case of 1975 Minis to BBCE for 19k? >>
Yes, but that was about a year ago when box prices were much lower, too (at around $1,700, iirc)..
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>If its collectors, nostalgia etc, why wasn't stuff flying like this a year ago with prices half what they are now. The economy has not substantially changed in the last year other than perhaps near term inflationary concerns have diminished a great deal. >>
I think it is a bit of a momentum play, at least here on the boards, which is a pretty small portion of the hobby... but can be the start of the butterfly effect.
Look at what David (dpeck) did with wrestling cards. When he came to these boards and starting hyping wrestling cards as having huge growth potential, how many others saw it? Yet, here we are, present day and the hobby awareness is leaps and bounds above where it was. A few people joined in, prices rose, more people noticed and joined in... be it for investment, collecting, or nostaligia... the increased profile brought new players into the market which brought prices higher and got the flywheel churning.
In a similar fashion, I never gave much thought to unopened product before a few passionate collectors started sharing their collection/knowledge here. I started collecting as a kid in the 80's, yet my collection spanned the 1930's into the 2010's with every decade represented but the one I started the hobby in! The awareness and appreciation they brought about unopened, coupled with a bit of nostalgia, led me to want to pick up unopened items from 1981-1988 to coincide with my first stint in the hobby.
I personally don't view them as an investment any more than anything else in my collection. If I ever sell part or all of my collection I would be ok with taking a loss, happy to get back what I put in, and thrilled to make a profit.
I suspect the reasons for new unopened collectors, investors, or a combination thereof are as varied as the individuals themselves. Hard to say how much unopened collectors are contributing to this upswing vs. rippers vs. rip & submitters vs. improving economy vs. one's preference in shipping tape color. Harder still is to know if current prices are the equivalent of AAPL at $70 or $700 per share.
<< <i>you really can't get the same price that BBCE does when you decide you want to sell. Even with BBCE shrinkwrap. >>
I find this statement to be odd. If Steve has a box on his site for $250 that I want, but by the time I go to order it there are no more in stock, I wouldn't hesitate to pay that (or even slightly more knowing the next time BBCE restocks they may raise their price) to someone else for a BBCE wrapped box. >>
Ok, you're comfortable doing that with a $250 box. How about a $2000 box?
Ah, ok, I'm up to speed now. You're forgiven for this cynical thread, but now I am going to be pissy with you for not letting me in on your diabolical plan earlier.
Not sure how collecting and/or investing in a 1975 Topps Mini wax case is much different from a PSA graded 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle. Both have appreciated over time in the past and both may depreciate over time in the future.
At the end of the day, both are pieces of cardboard with some ink on them... virtually worthless were it not for the human sentiment attached to each and the far less sentimental supply vs. demand of a free market economy.
I think both sides of the unopened price trajectory debate have raised good points. I've appreciated the debate, it just always rubs me the wrong way when people deride what others collect, directly or indirectly.
Now then, excuse me while I go see if BBCE still has any Menudo packs in stock.
<< <i>you really can't get the same price that BBCE does when you decide you want to sell. Even with BBCE shrinkwrap. >>
I find this statement to be odd. If Steve has a box on his site for $250 that I want, but by the time I go to order it there are no more in stock, I wouldn't hesitate to pay that (or even slightly more knowing the next time BBCE restocks they may raise their price) to someone else for a BBCE wrapped box. >>
Ok, you're comfortable doing that with a $250 box. How about a $2000 box? >>
I would be as comfortable as I would be in buying a $2K PSA card from some random eBay seller, yes.
<< <i>you really can't get the same price that BBCE does when you decide you want to sell. Even with BBCE shrinkwrap. >>
I find this statement to be odd. If Steve has a box on his site for $250 that I want, but by the time I go to order it there are no more in stock, I wouldn't hesitate to pay that (or even slightly more knowing the next time BBCE restocks they may raise their price) to someone else for a BBCE wrapped box. >>
Ok, you're comfortable doing that with a $250 box. How about a $2000 box? >>
I would be as comfortable as I would be in buying a $2K PSA card from some random eBay seller, yes.
<< <i>But what are the odds that a hypothetical someone bought a case for such a substantial amount from a source that is NOT BBCE? Thus if Steve's buy price is the highest, and if Steve is the only one with the confidence to see say a 10k+ unopened piece and know it is legit and buy it, the hypothetical owner winds up having to sell it back to BBCE. So a likely scenario would go something like this...
A. Collector pays Steve's price for an expensive, let's say five digit+ case. B. Upon attempted resale, Collector tries to get what BBCE is getting for that case. C. Collector finds that other collectors in the market for such an expensive piece of unopened will only make a purchase of such magnitude from BBCE. D. Collector either lowers his price to where potential buyers feel comfortable-- but will they even spend 20K on an unopened piece NOT from BBCE? E. Collector finds his best price is from BBCE, which depending on time since purchase, stands to be less than or at best equal to what was paid. >>
These hypotheticals are just untrue and shows very little actual knowledge of what is happening out in the real markets. In fact, Steve Hart has left so much money on the table this past year it is ridiculous. In many instances, the same material is being swooped up on the open ebay market for substantial premiums over what BBCE is charges - AND - they have maintained a 10% discount to board members as well. Does not sound like much? Well when I drop 15K on them that is an additional 1.5K I get to play with which amounts to a 1983 Fleer Waxcase! Also, it is quite easy to sell on ebay with BBCE provenance including the shrinkwrap and/or bill or sale...this resale market will become more of a norm going forward.
<< <i>I would wager you could sell a 1975 Topps unopened case quicker than you could sell a PSA 7 Mantle card. Look at how many boxes Steve went through this week at $2000 a box. That tells me all I need to know about this sector of the baseball card market. People want/like opening and collecting boxes. >>
A key point in Patrick Bateman's original post that should not be overlooked is that you really can't get the same price that BBCE does when you decide you want to sell. Even with BBCE shrinkwrap.
Steve Hart sold a case of 1975 Topps Minis for ~39k at the National. I'd wager you couldn't get 25k for that same exact case. >>
Steve's buy price is likely higher than that. >>
Didn't mintmoondog say he recently sold a case of 1975 Minis to BBCE for 19k? >>
Ah Maurice! You pain me lol Yah, I believe this was about 15 months ago because I needed the cash to buy into a huge 1975 mini setbreak with a bunch of low pop 9s and 10s. I figured I would get way more high end single cards straight from the setbreak then I ever would breaking my case...so the interesting thing is that the case goes from 19K (sold for around 25K) to 39K in a little over a year. Im cool with it because the cards I picked up with that cash I KNOW wont be coming up anytime soon, but the price increases have been across the board in the 1970 decade...Schmidt rookie in a 9 went from about 1.2-1.3K to 1.8-2K, Brett's 1975 rookie went from 600ish to well over 1.5K in a year and so on... Basically 1970s stuff is hot and I am so thankful I bought heavy when I did.
<< <i>This is a great thread with interesting viewpoints and I hope to read more responses today! >>
I agree. Different opinions are allowed. I hope no one takes it too personally. It's a good conversation to have as long as it's kept at a friendly level
The Clockwork Angel Collection...brought to you by Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Chase TheClockworkAngelCollection
Another interesting point...which I hope is not intended to promote the self-importance of the members who post here. The collecting world is MUCH tighter than you might realize especially when we are talking high end sets before 1980 and unopened from this era. Let me give you the example of 1975 mini collectors. We know who the collectors are, and when a new person enters we see that immediately. Also, I suspect that over 70% of all the top single cards are "vaulted" with known collectors! For the last couple major sales it was easy to determine who was selling. In this climate it is actually much more easy to liquidate collections. In the next 10-20 years IMO the provenance of pre 1980s will become increasingly plastic. If you extend the various outlets to sell unopened beyond BBCE to mass ebay churners like Probstein and PWCC, or the 6-10 highly respected Auction houses REA and Memory Lane, then I don't see where the concerns about liquidity are coming from. In fact, the one thing I cant figure out is why people would sell to BBCE when they can simply cosign their product to these others and get very close to market price. In that regard, Steve is a magician. BTW when I sold the case to Steve for 19K that was substantially higher than their quote. I just gave Steve a call and we bargained out a price in like 2 minutes. I bought 2 cases for around 12K at the REA auction in 2009. Broke one which was a complete disaster; thus had no hesitation to dump the other for a 7K profit in 4 years to defray costs on a setbreak (I think I ended up 55K lighter in the wallet on that auction). I think Steve immediately broke the case and sold the boxes for around 24-25K total. At the time, I figured I could pick up another case in a year or two for under 30K just to have...but I miscalculated bigtime...obviously My other miscalculation was holding off on improving my 1975 reg because I thought there was so much more gradeable material than minis (which is true)...I remember passing on several Brett PSA 9s at around 600-700 hoping to catch a deal. Now the card is at 1.5K and above and I'll have to pony-up at some point. Having been a substantial buyer in both PSA and unopened - IMO there is a market correction upwards in 1970s which has been "led" by unopened price surges based on the realization that indeed unopened has dried up for the years 1970-79 and most importantly the years 1975-79 are looking more like the past 5 years than the next 5. The PSA market is catching up to the unopened surge with a classic economic "lag" effect (sorry for tech speak). Those that call this a bubble and want to wait for a major correction are more than welcome to hold off on buying with my personal thanks!
In the very long-winded post that follows, I try to address points that have been raised in this thread. I didn't want to be a killjoy since the original post was funny, but now that it's turned serious... Regardless, I have a lot of respect for the OP, but since the bulk of my collection is unopened, I am biased!
WHY HAVE UNOPENED PRICES JUMPED: It is not entirely clear if unopened prices have significantly jumped. I think most will concede that BBCE does not employ the Fritsch model of trying to squeeze every last dollar out of their product. That's a reason why even their high-dollar items tend to sell almost immediately. As noted by 1954, BBCE has left a lot of money on the table. A significant portion of the price increases we have seen may be BBCE bringing their prices more in line with actual demand prices. For example, in November 2012, a 1973 4th series non-BBCE wax box sold for $3600. BBCE's buy price at the time was, I recall, $1400. Also, see the point below about graded card prices - there could be a correlation with the price increases we have seen for graded 1970s cards in the past year.
WHAT MAKES CARD PRICES JUMP: What have, for example, George Brett, Andre Dawson, Paul Molitor, Ozzie Smith, Don Mattingly, etc. done in the past year to make their high-grade rookie card prices jump so much? Their stat lines all read the same: 0, 0, 0, .000. The $10K PSA 10 Ozzie has brought over $20K each of the last three sales. If we are questioning unopened prices, shouldn't the same questions be posed to graded card prices of retired players? Is unopened just following the opened lead?
A CARDBOARD BOX VERSUS BEAUTIFUL CARDS: Let's be honest; if we are talking only about aesthetics, I can print a beautiful color copy of just about any graded card that, when framed and on my wall, is virtually indistinguishable from the real thing until you get within a foot or so of it. I can also purchase reprints of most famous cards that look just like the real thing. Which leads me to...
"INVESTORS" ARE CREATING A BUBBLE: If you are spending thousands of dollars on a single high-grade card and claim that it is just for the love of collecting, I question the intellectual honesty of that claim. Why not simply collect reprints of those cards? Sure, there is an increase in utility of knowing you have the "real thing," but is your utility 1000x higher? Baseball cards are easily reproduced largely two-dimensional products, unlike most other collectibles. I can tell you that when I look at the empty 1970s Topps wax boxes that I have on my shelf most of the time because the real deals are locked away, they look just as nice as the full boxes and make me just as happy. If I did not expect a return on investment in my collection, I would only own empty boxes that I would fill with re-wrapped packs.
UNOPENED IS A NICHE PRODUCT: I agree. But there are 100s or even 1000s more 1978 sets out there than 1978 wax boxes. Same holds true for 1983. So diminished supply may offset the diminished demand. I know that for me, personally, I had to shell out four figures to get a nice raw 66-card 1971 Kellogg's 3-D set. Niche doesn't necessarily mean inexpensive. That said, I agree that having substantially more purchasers for a product along a demand curve should increase the price stability of high-end cards.
ONLY BBCE CAN GET TOP DOLLAR FOR BBCE PRODUCT: The BBCE boxes I have seen at auction outside of BBCE have consistently brought more than BBCE asking prices. Example - REA 1975 Mini box $2250 when BBCE was charging $1800. 1975 5th Series for $9500. There have been several recent BBCE resales on eBay for more than what Steve was charging.
BBCE PRODUCT IS THE ONLY TRUSTED PRODUCT: A 1979 cello box - non-BBCE - sold for $1050 on eBay yesterday. A 1978 non-BBCE wax box sold for $1100 on eBay a month ago. A non-BBCE 1976 Topps wax box is at auction and sits at $3250 with BP right now - hundreds more than BBCE's price at the National. A non-BBCE 1973 Topps 4th series wax box is at auction and sits at $3400 with BP right now.
BBCE BOXES/CASES WILL COMMAND LESS ON RESALE: Similar vein as above, but why? I don't get this one and haven't seen any support for the claim. If you see a BBCE wrapped boxe or a BBCE case that accompanies a BBCE invoice or has similar provenance, are you going to question an auction house or a reputable seller? I will pay a reputable seller just as much for a BBCE box as I would BBCE. I think I'm in the majority on this one.
KNOWN VERSUS UNKNOWN QUANTITY: The population reports inform us as to how many cards have been graded, but does anyone have a good idea of what percentage of any particular card has been graded? Even a 1952 Topps Mantle? Isn't the percentage of graded Mantles likely less than half the total population? All the population reports provide is a baseline. For unopened material, there are multiple data points to help measure product scarcity in the absence of a population report: eBay, auction houses and major card shows. Even for 1978-1980 boxes, you will see more 1952 Mantles sold in a year than any of these boxes.
THE STORAGE UNIT FEAR: The "who knows how much of this stuff is sitting in storage units right now" line. Not sure why this applies more forcefully to unopened product than individual cards. Pre-1983 or so, were people more likely to store unopened product than a bunch of raw cards? I have never seen evidence of this. It's been what, two decades since there was a notable unopened find? The major unopened sales in recent years have come from well-documented Conlon and Fritsch supplies. Nothing new there.
NONE OF THIS STUFF IS GETTING OPENED: We know this isn't true at least for 1975 forward based just off of what we see on this forum. But pre-1975, why would this prevent prices from going up any more than prices of graded cards from that era going up? The supply of graded cards will only keep going up.
NO CORRELATION BETWEEN CONTENT AND PRICE: I think for pre-1980 product, there is an element of novelty and/or lottery component to price, and I believe this becomes progressively true in connection with scarcity/going backwards in time. But is there real support for the claim that there is no correlation between price and content for 1970s or early 1980s product? It would be an interesting analysis. I really couldn't say.
EARLY 1980s UNOPENED PRICE JUMPS: I am not going to get worked up about an increase from $3.00 per pack to $4.50 or from $4 to $6. Can anyone support the argument that the economics are destroyed at this level?
THE PSA EFFECT: One thing not mentioned is the impact that PSA graded packs may be having on unopened material. I've seen some strong prices for individually graded packs that, even after grading fees, would far exceed box price when multiplied out. I don't know, however, what a reasonable distribution across grades is. Something to consider. Further, as boxes get broken down into packs as this forum is so good at doing, box supply will of course continually decrease. increasing box scarcity.
<< <i>In the very long-winded post that follows, I try to address points that have been raised in this thread. I didn't want to be a killjoy since the original post was funny, but now that it's turned serious... Regardless, I have a lot of respect for the OP, but since the bulk of my collection is unopened, I am biased!
WHY HAVE UNOPENED PRICES JUMPED: It is not entirely clear if unopened prices have significantly jumped. I think most will concede that BBCE does not employ the Fritsch model of trying to squeeze every last dollar out of their product. That's a reason why even their high-dollar items tend to sell almost immediately. As noted by 1954, BBCE has left a lot of money on the table. A significant portion of the price increases we have seen may be BBCE bringing their prices more in line with actual demand prices. For example, in November 2012, a 1973 4th series non-BBCE wax box sold for $3600. BBCE's buy price at the time was, I recall, $1400. Also, see the point below about graded card prices - there could be a correlation with the price increases we have seen for graded 1970s cards in the past year.
WHAT MAKES CARD PRICES JUMP: What have, for example, George Brett, Andre Dawson, Paul Molitor, Ozzie Smith, Don Mattingly, etc. done in the past year to make their high-grade rookie card prices jump so much? Their stat lines all read the same: 0, 0, 0, .000. The $10K PSA 10 Ozzie has brought over $20K each of the last three sales. If we are questioning unopened prices, shouldn't the same questions be posed to graded card prices of retired players? Is unopened just following the opened lead?
A CARDBOARD BOX VERSUS BEAUTIFUL CARDS: Let's be honest; if we are talking only about aesthetics, I can print a beautiful color copy of just about any graded card that, when framed and on my wall, is virtually indistinguishable from the real thing until you get within a foot or so of it. I can also purchase reprints of most famous cards that look just like the real thing. Which leads me to...
"INVESTORS" ARE CREATING A BUBBLE: If you are spending thousands of dollars on a single high-grade card and claim that it is just for the love of collecting, I question the intellectual honesty of that claim. Why not simply collect reprints of those cards? Sure, there is an increase in utility of knowing you have the "real thing," but is your utility 1000x higher? Baseball cards are easily reproduced largely two-dimensional products, unlike most other collectibles. I can tell you that when I look at the empty 1970s Topps wax boxes that I have on my shelf most of the time because the real deals are locked away, they look just as nice as the full boxes and make me just as happy. If I did not expect a return on investment in my collection, I would only own empty boxes that I would fill with re-wrapped packs.
UNOPENED IS A NICHE PRODUCT: I agree. But there are 100s or even 1000s more 1978 sets out there than 1978 wax boxes. Same holds true for 1983. So diminished supply may offset the diminished demand. I know that for me, personally, I had to shell out four figures to get a nice raw 66-card 1971 Kellogg's 3-D set. Niche doesn't necessarily mean inexpensive. That said, I agree that having substantially more purchasers for a product along a demand curve should increase the price stability of high-end cards.
ONLY BBCE CAN GET TOP DOLLAR FOR BBCE PRODUCT: The BBCE boxes I have seen at auction outside of BBCE have consistently brought more than BBCE asking prices. Example - REA 1975 Mini box $2250 when BBCE was charging $1800. 1975 5th Series for $9500. There have been several recent BBCE resales on eBay for more than what Steve was charging.
BBCE PRODUCT IS THE ONLY TRUSTED PRODUCT: A 1979 cello box - non-BBCE - sold for $1050 on eBay yesterday. A 1978 non-BBCE wax box sold for $1100 on eBay a month ago. A non-BBCE 1976 Topps wax box is at auction and sits at $3250 with BP right now - hundreds more than BBCE's price at the National. A non-BBCE 1973 Topps 4th series wax box is at auction and sits at $3400 with BP right now.
BBCE BOXES/CASES WILL COMMAND LESS ON RESALE: Similar vein as above, but why? I don't get this one and haven't seen any support for the claim. If you see a BBCE wrapped boxe or a BBCE case that accompanies a BBCE invoice or has similar provenance, are you going to question an auction house or a reputable seller? I will pay a reputable seller just as much for a BBCE box as I would BBCE. I think I'm in the majority on this one.
KNOWN VERSUS UNKNOWN QUANTITY: The population reports inform us as to how many cards have been graded, but does anyone have a good idea of what percentage of any particular card has been graded? Even a 1952 Topps Mantle? Isn't the percentage of graded Mantles likely less than half the total population? All the population reports provide is a baseline. For unopened material, there are multiple data points to help measure product scarcity in the absence of a population report: eBay, auction houses and major card shows. Even for 1978-1980 boxes, you will see more 1952 Mantles sold in a year than any of these boxes.
THE STORAGE UNIT FEAR: The "who knows how much of this stuff is sitting in storage units right now" line. Not sure why this applies more forcefully to unopened product than individual cards. Pre-1983 or so, were people more likely to store unopened product than a bunch of raw cards? I have never seen evidence of this. It's been what, two decades since there was a notable unopened find? The major unopened sales in recent years have come from well-documented Conlon and Fritsch supplies. Nothing new there.
NONE OF THIS STUFF IS GETTING OPENED: We know this isn't true at least for 1975 forward based just off of what we see on this forum. But pre-1975, why would this prevent prices from going up any more than prices of graded cards from that era going up? The supply of graded cards will only keep going up.
NO CORRELATION BETWEEN CONTENT AND PRICE: I think for pre-1980 product, there is an element of novelty and/or lottery component to price, and I believe this becomes progressively true in connection with scarcity/going backwards in time. But is there real support for the claim that there is no correlation between price and content for 1970s or early 1980s product? It would be an interesting analysis. I really couldn't say.
EARLY 1980s UNOPENED PRICE JUMPS: I am not going to get worked up about an increase from $3.00 per pack to $4.50 or from $4 to $6. Can anyone support the argument that the economics are destroyed at this level?
THE PSA EFFECT: One thing not mentioned is the impact that PSA graded packs may be having on unopened material. I've seen some strong prices for individually graded packs that, even after grading fees, would far exceed box price when multiplied out. I don't know, however, what a reasonable distribution across grades is. Something to consider. Further, as boxes get broken down into packs as this forum is so good at doing, box supply will of course continually decrease. increasing box scarcity.
Phew. I'm tired just from typing that. >>
Rack him!
Now I know why you do what you do for a living!
All great points...
The Clockwork Angel Collection...brought to you by Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Chase TheClockworkAngelCollection
Comments
<< <i>you really can't get the same price that BBCE does when you decide you want to sell. Even with BBCE shrinkwrap. >>
I find this statement to be odd. If Steve has a box on his site for $250 that I want, but by the time I go to order it there are no more in stock, I wouldn't hesitate to pay that (or even slightly more knowing the next time BBCE restocks they may raise their price) to someone else for a BBCE wrapped box.
To me that's a BIT like saying the SMR price is only valid (yeah, I know, but work with here!) when PSA grades the card and still has it in their possession. Both BBCE's wrap and PSA's slab are indicative of the fact the content has been authenticated & evaluated. To me the premium comes with their expert opinion and not who possesses the item afterwards.
Just as I inspect some PSA slabs for signs of tampering, I might do the same on the BBCE wrap if purchased from a third party, but who I am buying a PSA slabbed card or BBCE wrapped box, doesn't influence what I pay. Am I in the minority here?
Snorto~
To be fair, I don't think this market will continue rising at the pace it has over the past 18-24 months. But right now, it is white hot and there's no dispute about that.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>There is NO DOUBT the "investor" has entered the un-opened world. I would say we are at the point where a good percentage of collectors are being priced out of the market. >>
Investors external to the hobby itself or collectors who see unopened material with a mix of investment potential, collectability, and nostalgia?
I don't know about collectors getting priced out of the market. One of the great things about this hobby is you can participate on just about any budget. We have everything from broke full-time students to freakin' NFL starters on this board alone! It's hard to get priced out of the market/hobby... but for most of us, we are already priced out of what we would LIKE to collect and settle for what we CAN collect that we like.
So, yeah, a lot of people can't/won't drop $39K for a 1975 mini case. How about a box instead? Still too much, then how about a graded pack? Or they can throw in the towel on unopened 1975 minis completely and build a low grade set or consider cheaper unopened options.
Snorto~
I don't think anyone could dispute that it's very hot. The question is WHY so hot, despite no hard pop data and no longer any strong correlation between price and likely value of contents? As another poster said above, is it "irrational exuberance" or is it based on something else that some people are not seeing? That's what's so interesting.
<< <i>Grote,
I don't think anyone could dispute that it's very hot. The question is WHY so hot, despite no hard pop data and no longer any strong correlation between price and likely value of contents? As another poster said above, is it "irrational exuberance" or is it based on something else that some people are not seeing? That's what's so interesting. >>
Why is unopened so hot right now? Why is a PSA 9 75 Brett RC suddenly a 1K card when it traded for half that a year ago? It's hard to pinpoint, but as an unopened collector for almost 20 years now, I've seen the unopened market ebb and flow over the past two decades, and I don't think there's any question that a primary reason for rising prices is that quality unopened product, particularly pre-1980 stuff, is becoming very difficult to find, and in the collectibles market, scarcity is going to drive prices upward. A decade ago you could fairly easily find unopened packs from the 1960s (and even the 1950s) if you made the effort. Now, that stuff has become virtually extinct, so I think collectors are focusing on acquiring 70s product before that, too, disappears. Steve will be the first to tell you how tough finding pre-1980 stuff has become, and at the National, where normally you do see that stuff on display, the options were very few and far between.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
I suspect an effort to corner the market(don't make me go into OCD manifesting itself as seeing patterns where no one else does). i think there's a host of problems with doing that starting with aforementioned unknown quantities along with potentially severe quality issues.
I know some collectors out there make this correlation, but as an unopened collector, I am not so much interested in the sum of the parts as the package itself. A 1c penny pack contains 1 visible wax AND gum stained card, but certain issues command insane amounts not because anyone is foolish enough to dream about a valuable card within, but because the packs themselves are so tough to find!
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>If its collectors, nostalgia etc, why wasn't stuff flying like this a year ago with prices half what they are now. The economy has not substantially changed in the last year other than perhaps near term inflationary concerns have diminished a great deal.
I suspect an effort to corner the market(don't make me go into OCD manifesting itself as seeing patterns where no one else does). i think there's a host of problems with doing that starting with aforementioned unknown quantities along with potentially severe quality issues. >>
On the contrary, stuff WAS flying off the shelf a year ago, so much so that prices have risen since then to support a new market floor.
But let's face it--people who choose to spend money on pieces of cardboard, however rare or valuable, must have a certain amount of discretionary income to begin with, so I don't think you can apply economic rationale to baseball card collecting. Stocks and bonds? Yes. Shares of Collector's Universe? Yes, too. But not baseball cards.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>I am a buyer at $30K for a case Patrick Bateman and I can sell this case in one day for a profit guaranteed. Really anyone can do this if they had a case. >>
+1.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>The late 70s case for example does remain a different animal. >>
But that's according to your perspective, and really just an opinion. Some people are not drawn to collecting low grade Babe Ruth or pre-war cards either. Some of those collectors think anything printyed by Topps after 1952 is not worth pursuing, but the great part of this hobby is that it appeals to all kinds of collectors from all kinds of economic backgrounds. For some, spending 39K on a 75 mini case is absurd. For others, it's a great pickup. I don't think you can rationalize either opinion to the other side's satisfaction.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
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<< <i>The late 70s case for example does remain a different animal. >>
But that's according to your perspective, and really just an opinion. Some people are not drawn to collecting low grade Babe Ruth or pre-war cards either. Some of those collectors think anything printyed by Topps after 1952 is not worth pursuing, but the great part of this hobby is that it appeals to all kinds of collectors from all kinds of economic backgrounds. For some, spending 39K on a 75 mini case is absurd. For others, it's a great pickup. I don't think you can rationalize either opinion to the other side's satisfaction. >>
Do you think buying that case for 39K and immediately putting it up for sale for 45K (or pick a different amount higher than 39k) would get you a quick profit? I can't relate to buys like that but were I a rich man I might try that. I actually wonder this type of scenario about a lot of the hard to get stuff that shows up on BBCE site.
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<< <i>I would wager you could sell a 1975 Topps unopened case quicker than you could sell a PSA 7 Mantle card. Look at how many boxes Steve went through this week at $2000 a box. That tells me all I need to know about this sector of the baseball card market. People want/like opening and collecting boxes. >>
A key point in Patrick Bateman's original post that should not be overlooked is that you really can't get the same price that BBCE does when you decide you want to sell. Even with BBCE shrinkwrap.
Steve Hart sold a case of 1975 Topps Minis for ~39k at the National. I'd wager you couldn't get 25k for that same exact case. >>
Steve's buy price is likely higher than that. >>
Didn't mintmoondog say he recently sold a case of 1975 Minis to BBCE for 19k?
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<< <i>The late 70s case for example does remain a different animal. >>
But that's according to your perspective, and really just an opinion. Some people are not drawn to collecting low grade Babe Ruth or pre-war cards either. Some of those collectors think anything printyed by Topps after 1952 is not worth pursuing, but the great part of this hobby is that it appeals to all kinds of collectors from all kinds of economic backgrounds. For some, spending 39K on a 75 mini case is absurd. For others, it's a great pickup. I don't think you can rationalize either opinion to the other side's satisfaction. >>
Do you think buying that case for 39K and immediately putting it up for sale for 45K (or pick a different amount higher than 39k) would get you a quick profit? I can't relate to buys like that but were I a rich man I might try that. I actually wonder this type of scenario about a lot of the hard to get stuff that shows up on BBCE site. >>
I thought 39K was high retail, so if I were the buyer of that case, I would plan on holding it for a while. Then again, I never thought I'd see 75 mini cello boxes sell for $3,500 or 75 mini boxes sell for $2,200 (and those figures are not even BBCE sale numbers), so who knows in this market. But I doubt you could get 45K for a 75 mini case right now, unless Hal Steinbrenner (who is buying unopened now, too, lol) gets involved in the bidding!
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
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<< <i>I would wager you could sell a 1975 Topps unopened case quicker than you could sell a PSA 7 Mantle card. Look at how many boxes Steve went through this week at $2000 a box. That tells me all I need to know about this sector of the baseball card market. People want/like opening and collecting boxes. >>
A key point in Patrick Bateman's original post that should not be overlooked is that you really can't get the same price that BBCE does when you decide you want to sell. Even with BBCE shrinkwrap.
Steve Hart sold a case of 1975 Topps Minis for ~39k at the National. I'd wager you couldn't get 25k for that same exact case. >>
Steve's buy price is likely higher than that. >>
Didn't mintmoondog say he recently sold a case of 1975 Minis to BBCE for 19k? >>
Yes, but that was about a year ago when box prices were much lower, too (at around $1,700, iirc)..
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>I just read the OP, and I really wanna listen to some Phil Collins right now. Anyone else? >>
Sussudio is a personal favorite. Right up there with its Hip to be Square by Huey Lewis and the News.
<< <i>If its collectors, nostalgia etc, why wasn't stuff flying like this a year ago with prices half what they are now. The economy has not substantially changed in the last year other than perhaps near term inflationary concerns have diminished a great deal. >>
I think it is a bit of a momentum play, at least here on the boards, which is a pretty small portion of the hobby... but can be the start of the butterfly effect.
Look at what David (dpeck) did with wrestling cards. When he came to these boards and starting hyping wrestling cards as having huge growth potential, how many others saw it? Yet, here we are, present day and the hobby awareness is leaps and bounds above where it was. A few people joined in, prices rose, more people noticed and joined in... be it for investment, collecting, or nostaligia... the increased profile brought new players into the market which brought prices higher and got the flywheel churning.
In a similar fashion, I never gave much thought to unopened product before a few passionate collectors started sharing their collection/knowledge here. I started collecting as a kid in the 80's, yet my collection spanned the 1930's into the 2010's with every decade represented but the one I started the hobby in! The awareness and appreciation they brought about unopened, coupled with a bit of nostalgia, led me to want to pick up unopened items from 1981-1988 to coincide with my first stint in the hobby.
I personally don't view them as an investment any more than anything else in my collection. If I ever sell part or all of my collection I would be ok with taking a loss, happy to get back what I put in, and thrilled to make a profit.
I suspect the reasons for new unopened collectors, investors, or a combination thereof are as varied as the individuals themselves. Hard to say how much unopened collectors are contributing to this upswing vs. rippers vs. rip & submitters vs. improving economy vs. one's preference in shipping tape color. Harder still is to know if current prices are the equivalent of AAPL at $70 or $700 per share.
Snorto~
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<< <i>you really can't get the same price that BBCE does when you decide you want to sell. Even with BBCE shrinkwrap. >>
I find this statement to be odd. If Steve has a box on his site for $250 that I want, but by the time I go to order it there are no more in stock, I wouldn't hesitate to pay that (or even slightly more knowing the next time BBCE restocks they may raise their price) to someone else for a BBCE wrapped box. >>
Ok, you're comfortable doing that with a $250 box. How about a $2000 box?
<< <i>My name is Matt. >>
Ah, ok, I'm up to speed now. You're forgiven for this cynical thread, but now I am going to be pissy with you for not letting me in on your diabolical plan earlier.
Not sure how collecting and/or investing in a 1975 Topps Mini wax case is much different from a PSA graded 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle. Both have appreciated over time in the past and both may depreciate over time in the future.
At the end of the day, both are pieces of cardboard with some ink on them... virtually worthless were it not for the human sentiment attached to each and the far less sentimental supply vs. demand of a free market economy.
I think both sides of the unopened price trajectory debate have raised good points. I've appreciated the debate, it just always rubs me the wrong way when people deride what others collect, directly or indirectly.
Now then, excuse me while I go see if BBCE still has any Menudo packs in stock.
Snorto~
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<< <i>you really can't get the same price that BBCE does when you decide you want to sell. Even with BBCE shrinkwrap. >>
I find this statement to be odd. If Steve has a box on his site for $250 that I want, but by the time I go to order it there are no more in stock, I wouldn't hesitate to pay that (or even slightly more knowing the next time BBCE restocks they may raise their price) to someone else for a BBCE wrapped box. >>
Ok, you're comfortable doing that with a $250 box. How about a $2000 box? >>
I would be as comfortable as I would be in buying a $2K PSA card from some random eBay seller, yes.
Snorto~
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<< <i>you really can't get the same price that BBCE does when you decide you want to sell. Even with BBCE shrinkwrap. >>
I find this statement to be odd. If Steve has a box on his site for $250 that I want, but by the time I go to order it there are no more in stock, I wouldn't hesitate to pay that (or even slightly more knowing the next time BBCE restocks they may raise their price) to someone else for a BBCE wrapped box. >>
Ok, you're comfortable doing that with a $250 box. How about a $2000 box? >>
I would be as comfortable as I would be in buying a $2K PSA card from some random eBay seller, yes.
Snorto~ >>
You're dodging the question.
<< <i>I am a buyer at $30K for a case Patrick Bateman and I can sell this case in one day for a profit guaranteed. >>
I call BS on this. If it was that easy, Steve's buy price would be higher than 25k.
<< <i>But what are the odds that a hypothetical someone bought a case for such a substantial amount from a source that is NOT BBCE? Thus if Steve's buy price is the highest, and if Steve is the only one with the confidence to see say a 10k+ unopened piece and know it is legit and buy it, the hypothetical owner winds up having to sell it back to BBCE. So a likely scenario would go something like this...
A. Collector pays Steve's price for an expensive, let's say five digit+ case.
B. Upon attempted resale, Collector tries to get what BBCE is getting for that case.
C. Collector finds that other collectors in the market for such an expensive piece of unopened will only make a purchase of such magnitude from BBCE.
D. Collector either lowers his price to where potential buyers feel comfortable-- but will they even spend 20K on an unopened piece NOT from BBCE?
E. Collector finds his best price is from BBCE, which depending on time since purchase, stands to be less than or at best equal to what was paid. >>
These hypotheticals are just untrue and shows very little actual knowledge of what is happening out in the real markets. In fact, Steve Hart has left so much money on the table this past year it is ridiculous. In many instances, the same material is being swooped up on the open ebay market for substantial premiums over what BBCE is charges - AND - they have maintained a 10% discount to board members as well. Does not sound like much? Well when I drop 15K on them that is an additional 1.5K I get to play with which amounts to a 1983 Fleer Waxcase!
Also, it is quite easy to sell on ebay with BBCE provenance including the shrinkwrap and/or bill or sale...this resale market will become more of a norm going forward.
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<< <i>I would wager you could sell a 1975 Topps unopened case quicker than you could sell a PSA 7 Mantle card. Look at how many boxes Steve went through this week at $2000 a box. That tells me all I need to know about this sector of the baseball card market. People want/like opening and collecting boxes. >>
A key point in Patrick Bateman's original post that should not be overlooked is that you really can't get the same price that BBCE does when you decide you want to sell. Even with BBCE shrinkwrap.
Steve Hart sold a case of 1975 Topps Minis for ~39k at the National. I'd wager you couldn't get 25k for that same exact case. >>
Steve's buy price is likely higher than that. >>
Didn't mintmoondog say he recently sold a case of 1975 Minis to BBCE for 19k? >>
Ah Maurice! You pain me lol
Yah, I believe this was about 15 months ago because I needed the cash to buy into a huge 1975 mini setbreak with a bunch of low pop 9s and 10s. I figured I would get way more high end single cards straight from the setbreak then I ever would breaking my case...so the interesting thing is that the case goes from 19K (sold for around 25K) to 39K in a little over a year.
Im cool with it because the cards I picked up with that cash I KNOW wont be coming up anytime soon, but the price increases have been across the board in the 1970 decade...Schmidt rookie in a 9 went from about 1.2-1.3K to 1.8-2K, Brett's 1975 rookie went from 600ish to well over 1.5K in a year and so on...
Basically 1970s stuff is hot and I am so thankful I bought heavy when I did.
<< <i>This is a great thread with interesting viewpoints and I hope to read more responses today! >>
I agree. Different opinions are allowed. I hope no one takes it too personally. It's a good conversation to have as long as it's kept at a friendly level
TheClockworkAngelCollection
BTW when I sold the case to Steve for 19K that was substantially higher than their quote. I just gave Steve a call and we bargained out a price in like 2 minutes. I bought 2 cases for around 12K at the REA auction in 2009. Broke one which was a complete disaster; thus had no hesitation to dump the other for a 7K profit in 4 years to defray costs on a setbreak (I think I ended up 55K lighter in the wallet on that auction). I think Steve immediately broke the case and sold the boxes for around 24-25K total. At the time, I figured I could pick up another case in a year or two for under 30K just to have...but I miscalculated bigtime...obviously
My other miscalculation was holding off on improving my 1975 reg because I thought there was so much more gradeable material than minis (which is true)...I remember passing on several Brett PSA 9s at around 600-700 hoping to catch a deal. Now the card is at 1.5K and above and I'll have to pony-up at some point.
Having been a substantial buyer in both PSA and unopened - IMO there is a market correction upwards in 1970s which has been "led" by unopened price surges based on the realization that indeed unopened has dried up for the years 1970-79 and most importantly the years 1975-79 are looking more like the past 5 years than the next 5. The PSA market is catching up to the unopened surge with a classic economic "lag" effect (sorry for tech speak). Those that call this a bubble and want to wait for a major correction are more than welcome to hold off on buying with my personal thanks!
WHY HAVE UNOPENED PRICES JUMPED: It is not entirely clear if unopened prices have significantly jumped. I think most will concede that BBCE does not employ the Fritsch model of trying to squeeze every last dollar out of their product. That's a reason why even their high-dollar items tend to sell almost immediately. As noted by 1954, BBCE has left a lot of money on the table. A significant portion of the price increases we have seen may be BBCE bringing their prices more in line with actual demand prices. For example, in November 2012, a 1973 4th series non-BBCE wax box sold for $3600. BBCE's buy price at the time was, I recall, $1400. Also, see the point below about graded card prices - there could be a correlation with the price increases we have seen for graded 1970s cards in the past year.
WHAT MAKES CARD PRICES JUMP: What have, for example, George Brett, Andre Dawson, Paul Molitor, Ozzie Smith, Don Mattingly, etc. done in the past year to make their high-grade rookie card prices jump so much? Their stat lines all read the same: 0, 0, 0, .000. The $10K PSA 10 Ozzie has brought over $20K each of the last three sales. If we are questioning unopened prices, shouldn't the same questions be posed to graded card prices of retired players? Is unopened just following the opened lead?
A CARDBOARD BOX VERSUS BEAUTIFUL CARDS: Let's be honest; if we are talking only about aesthetics, I can print a beautiful color copy of just about any graded card that, when framed and on my wall, is virtually indistinguishable from the real thing until you get within a foot or so of it. I can also purchase reprints of most famous cards that look just like the real thing. Which leads me to...
"INVESTORS" ARE CREATING A BUBBLE: If you are spending thousands of dollars on a single high-grade card and claim that it is just for the love of collecting, I question the intellectual honesty of that claim. Why not simply collect reprints of those cards? Sure, there is an increase in utility of knowing you have the "real thing," but is your utility 1000x higher? Baseball cards are easily reproduced largely two-dimensional products, unlike most other collectibles. I can tell you that when I look at the empty 1970s Topps wax boxes that I have on my shelf most of the time because the real deals are locked away, they look just as nice as the full boxes and make me just as happy. If I did not expect a return on investment in my collection, I would only own empty boxes that I would fill with re-wrapped packs.
UNOPENED IS A NICHE PRODUCT: I agree. But there are 100s or even 1000s more 1978 sets out there than 1978 wax boxes. Same holds true for 1983. So diminished supply may offset the diminished demand. I know that for me, personally, I had to shell out four figures to get a nice raw 66-card 1971 Kellogg's 3-D set. Niche doesn't necessarily mean inexpensive. That said, I agree that having substantially more purchasers for a product along a demand curve should increase the price stability of high-end cards.
ONLY BBCE CAN GET TOP DOLLAR FOR BBCE PRODUCT: The BBCE boxes I have seen at auction outside of BBCE have consistently brought more than BBCE asking prices. Example - REA 1975 Mini box $2250 when BBCE was charging $1800. 1975 5th Series for $9500. There have been several recent BBCE resales on eBay for more than what Steve was charging.
BBCE PRODUCT IS THE ONLY TRUSTED PRODUCT: A 1979 cello box - non-BBCE - sold for $1050 on eBay yesterday. A 1978 non-BBCE wax box sold for $1100 on eBay a month ago. A non-BBCE 1976 Topps wax box is at auction and sits at $3250 with BP right now - hundreds more than BBCE's price at the National. A non-BBCE 1973 Topps 4th series wax box is at auction and sits at $3400 with BP right now.
BBCE BOXES/CASES WILL COMMAND LESS ON RESALE: Similar vein as above, but why? I don't get this one and haven't seen any support for the claim. If you see a BBCE wrapped boxe or a BBCE case that accompanies a BBCE invoice or has similar provenance, are you going to question an auction house or a reputable seller? I will pay a reputable seller just as much for a BBCE box as I would BBCE. I think I'm in the majority on this one.
KNOWN VERSUS UNKNOWN QUANTITY: The population reports inform us as to how many cards have been graded, but does anyone have a good idea of what percentage of any particular card has been graded? Even a 1952 Topps Mantle? Isn't the percentage of graded Mantles likely less than half the total population? All the population reports provide is a baseline. For unopened material, there are multiple data points to help measure product scarcity in the absence of a population report: eBay, auction houses and major card shows. Even for 1978-1980 boxes, you will see more 1952 Mantles sold in a year than any of these boxes.
THE STORAGE UNIT FEAR: The "who knows how much of this stuff is sitting in storage units right now" line. Not sure why this applies more forcefully to unopened product than individual cards. Pre-1983 or so, were people more likely to store unopened product than a bunch of raw cards? I have never seen evidence of this. It's been what, two decades since there was a notable unopened find? The major unopened sales in recent years have come from well-documented Conlon and Fritsch supplies. Nothing new there.
NONE OF THIS STUFF IS GETTING OPENED: We know this isn't true at least for 1975 forward based just off of what we see on this forum. But pre-1975, why would this prevent prices from going up any more than prices of graded cards from that era going up? The supply of graded cards will only keep going up.
NO CORRELATION BETWEEN CONTENT AND PRICE: I think for pre-1980 product, there is an element of novelty and/or lottery component to price, and I believe this becomes progressively true in connection with scarcity/going backwards in time. But is there real support for the claim that there is no correlation between price and content for 1970s or early 1980s product? It would be an interesting analysis. I really couldn't say.
EARLY 1980s UNOPENED PRICE JUMPS: I am not going to get worked up about an increase from $3.00 per pack to $4.50 or from $4 to $6. Can anyone support the argument that the economics are destroyed at this level?
THE PSA EFFECT: One thing not mentioned is the impact that PSA graded packs may be having on unopened material. I've seen some strong prices for individually graded packs that, even after grading fees, would far exceed box price when multiplied out. I don't know, however, what a reasonable distribution across grades is. Something to consider. Further, as boxes get broken down into packs as this forum is so good at doing, box supply will of course continually decrease. increasing box scarcity.
Phew. I'm tired just from typing that.
and what does he collect? unopened?
<< <i>In the very long-winded post that follows, I try to address points that have been raised in this thread. I didn't want to be a killjoy since the original post was funny, but now that it's turned serious... Regardless, I have a lot of respect for the OP, but since the bulk of my collection is unopened, I am biased!
WHY HAVE UNOPENED PRICES JUMPED: It is not entirely clear if unopened prices have significantly jumped. I think most will concede that BBCE does not employ the Fritsch model of trying to squeeze every last dollar out of their product. That's a reason why even their high-dollar items tend to sell almost immediately. As noted by 1954, BBCE has left a lot of money on the table. A significant portion of the price increases we have seen may be BBCE bringing their prices more in line with actual demand prices. For example, in November 2012, a 1973 4th series non-BBCE wax box sold for $3600. BBCE's buy price at the time was, I recall, $1400. Also, see the point below about graded card prices - there could be a correlation with the price increases we have seen for graded 1970s cards in the past year.
WHAT MAKES CARD PRICES JUMP: What have, for example, George Brett, Andre Dawson, Paul Molitor, Ozzie Smith, Don Mattingly, etc. done in the past year to make their high-grade rookie card prices jump so much? Their stat lines all read the same: 0, 0, 0, .000. The $10K PSA 10 Ozzie has brought over $20K each of the last three sales. If we are questioning unopened prices, shouldn't the same questions be posed to graded card prices of retired players? Is unopened just following the opened lead?
A CARDBOARD BOX VERSUS BEAUTIFUL CARDS: Let's be honest; if we are talking only about aesthetics, I can print a beautiful color copy of just about any graded card that, when framed and on my wall, is virtually indistinguishable from the real thing until you get within a foot or so of it. I can also purchase reprints of most famous cards that look just like the real thing. Which leads me to...
"INVESTORS" ARE CREATING A BUBBLE: If you are spending thousands of dollars on a single high-grade card and claim that it is just for the love of collecting, I question the intellectual honesty of that claim. Why not simply collect reprints of those cards? Sure, there is an increase in utility of knowing you have the "real thing," but is your utility 1000x higher? Baseball cards are easily reproduced largely two-dimensional products, unlike most other collectibles. I can tell you that when I look at the empty 1970s Topps wax boxes that I have on my shelf most of the time because the real deals are locked away, they look just as nice as the full boxes and make me just as happy. If I did not expect a return on investment in my collection, I would only own empty boxes that I would fill with re-wrapped packs.
UNOPENED IS A NICHE PRODUCT: I agree. But there are 100s or even 1000s more 1978 sets out there than 1978 wax boxes. Same holds true for 1983. So diminished supply may offset the diminished demand. I know that for me, personally, I had to shell out four figures to get a nice raw 66-card 1971 Kellogg's 3-D set. Niche doesn't necessarily mean inexpensive. That said, I agree that having substantially more purchasers for a product along a demand curve should increase the price stability of high-end cards.
ONLY BBCE CAN GET TOP DOLLAR FOR BBCE PRODUCT: The BBCE boxes I have seen at auction outside of BBCE have consistently brought more than BBCE asking prices. Example - REA 1975 Mini box $2250 when BBCE was charging $1800. 1975 5th Series for $9500. There have been several recent BBCE resales on eBay for more than what Steve was charging.
BBCE PRODUCT IS THE ONLY TRUSTED PRODUCT: A 1979 cello box - non-BBCE - sold for $1050 on eBay yesterday. A 1978 non-BBCE wax box sold for $1100 on eBay a month ago. A non-BBCE 1976 Topps wax box is at auction and sits at $3250 with BP right now - hundreds more than BBCE's price at the National. A non-BBCE 1973 Topps 4th series wax box is at auction and sits at $3400 with BP right now.
BBCE BOXES/CASES WILL COMMAND LESS ON RESALE: Similar vein as above, but why? I don't get this one and haven't seen any support for the claim. If you see a BBCE wrapped boxe or a BBCE case that accompanies a BBCE invoice or has similar provenance, are you going to question an auction house or a reputable seller? I will pay a reputable seller just as much for a BBCE box as I would BBCE. I think I'm in the majority on this one.
KNOWN VERSUS UNKNOWN QUANTITY: The population reports inform us as to how many cards have been graded, but does anyone have a good idea of what percentage of any particular card has been graded? Even a 1952 Topps Mantle? Isn't the percentage of graded Mantles likely less than half the total population? All the population reports provide is a baseline. For unopened material, there are multiple data points to help measure product scarcity in the absence of a population report: eBay, auction houses and major card shows. Even for 1978-1980 boxes, you will see more 1952 Mantles sold in a year than any of these boxes.
THE STORAGE UNIT FEAR: The "who knows how much of this stuff is sitting in storage units right now" line. Not sure why this applies more forcefully to unopened product than individual cards. Pre-1983 or so, were people more likely to store unopened product than a bunch of raw cards? I have never seen evidence of this. It's been what, two decades since there was a notable unopened find? The major unopened sales in recent years have come from well-documented Conlon and Fritsch supplies. Nothing new there.
NONE OF THIS STUFF IS GETTING OPENED: We know this isn't true at least for 1975 forward based just off of what we see on this forum. But pre-1975, why would this prevent prices from going up any more than prices of graded cards from that era going up? The supply of graded cards will only keep going up.
NO CORRELATION BETWEEN CONTENT AND PRICE: I think for pre-1980 product, there is an element of novelty and/or lottery component to price, and I believe this becomes progressively true in connection with scarcity/going backwards in time. But is there real support for the claim that there is no correlation between price and content for 1970s or early 1980s product? It would be an interesting analysis. I really couldn't say.
EARLY 1980s UNOPENED PRICE JUMPS: I am not going to get worked up about an increase from $3.00 per pack to $4.50 or from $4 to $6. Can anyone support the argument that the economics are destroyed at this level?
THE PSA EFFECT: One thing not mentioned is the impact that PSA graded packs may be having on unopened material. I've seen some strong prices for individually graded packs that, even after grading fees, would far exceed box price when multiplied out. I don't know, however, what a reasonable distribution across grades is. Something to consider. Further, as boxes get broken down into packs as this forum is so good at doing, box supply will of course continually decrease. increasing box scarcity.
Phew. I'm tired just from typing that. >>
Rack him!
Now I know why you do what you do for a living!
All great points...
TheClockworkAngelCollection