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Sad thing about most people and PM's is that.....
Julio
Posts: 2,501 ✭
they jump on the wagon at the wrong time. They jump on when they are setting new highs and jump off at times like these. IMO now is a good time to buy, a terrible time to sell. If you are in at $40.00+, now is the time to gradually add to that stack and not sell. Sadly most will wait to buy until they are setting new highs again; it's too late then, so do it now.
No I'm not buying now but I'm semi happy with what I kept. I will probably pick up some more silver if/when it hits $15.00. I'll let you know if I pull the trigger so you can sell. Good luck. Take care. jws
No I'm not buying now but I'm semi happy with what I kept. I will probably pick up some more silver if/when it hits $15.00. I'll let you know if I pull the trigger so you can sell. Good luck. Take care. jws
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<< <i>they jump on the wagon at the wrong time. They jump on when they are setting new highs and jump off at times like these. IMO now is a good time to buy, a terrible time to sell. If you are in at $40.00+, now is the time to gradually add to that stack and not sell. Sadly most will wait to buy until they are setting new highs again; it's too late then, so do it now.
No I'm not buying now but I'm semi happy with what I kept. I will probably pick up some more silver if/when it hits $15.00. I'll let you know if I pull the trigger so you can sell. Good luck. Take care. jws >>
Unfortunately true, but it's been like that forever. The majority is seldom correct with their forecast's and usually end up holding an empty bag of wishful dreams. I'm relegating my "bullion" purchases to products that may end up with a numismatic premium in addition to their bullion value.
If silver goes back to $50, I would be buying more. This time when we go up, we won't see $50 again for a long long time. The most money is made during the last stages of a bull market. Don't sell any silver at $50. A few months after that, it will likely go to $100. Feel free to bump this thread when we get to $50. : )
If you still want to sell, please msg me first. I'll be happy to take some off your hands!
The runup in 1977-1980 was accompanied by a steady rise in interest rates, which was the government's tepid approach to keeping inflation under control. Now instead, we just have mis-reporting of the data in order to keep government inflation-adjusted liabilities somewhat under control.
In 1980, Comex was allowed to change all of the rules in the middle of the game because silver inventory was threatened by possible delivery to the Hunts (even though they denied that they were planning to take delivery.) Now, we have shrinking inventories of both gold and silver at the Comex, in addition to 40 year-old rumors that Ft. Knox has no gold, or at least owns very little that hasn't been over-committed or leased.
And floating in the background are untold trillions of gray market paper trades that nobody knows what to do with, because ultimately they are going to try to stick the losing side's losses onto taxpayers. Even if they manage to do that, there's no way it will get paid. We've reached Art Laffer's limit to how much can be taxed before the economy doesn't grow.
Something's got to give, and it will.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
<< <i>they jump on the wagon at the wrong time. They jump on when they are setting new highs and jump off at times like these. IMO now is a good time to buy, a terrible time to sell. If you are in at $40.00+, now is the time to gradually add to that stack and not sell. Sadly most will wait to buy until they are setting new highs again; it's too late then, so do it now.
No I'm not buying now but I'm semi happy with what I kept. I will probably pick up some more silver if/when it hits $15.00. I'll let you know if I pull the trigger so you can sell. Good luck. Take care. jws >>
Unfortunately true, but it's been like that forever. The majority is seldom correct with their forecast's and usually end up holding an empty bag of wishful dreams. I'm relegating my "bullion" purchases to products that may end up with a numismatic premium in addition to their bullion value. >>
While it is true that the majority buy at or near the market top, a good many of them buy on the way down. I'm not predicting, but that tends to happen a lot of the way down. There were 10,000 people in line to buy physical gold after the first big dip, and now they are bag holders. Because they bought physical in small quantities, they may need $2000 an ounce to break even. Good luck to them, but I will not hold my breath.
Another very common mistake is to sell too soon on the way up. When gold was at $700, about 80% of precious metal folks posting, thought that was a top, a good selling opportunity. After all those that bought at $300 had over doubled their money. It was just before a 60% rip to the upside in one year, and many long time bulls missed the boat.
I've said it before, averaging down during a major bear market is the road to the poor house. Whether this turns into Ursa Major for gold remains to be seen, but there is a decent chance of that. After 12 straight up years for gold, we are only seven months into our first down year. So if counting Mississippis we aren't even to one yet. Is it a three count or a five or seven? Or is the bull market still intact? The 12 up years have conditioned folks to buy the dips. If the market has turned, that will be a terrible strategy and lead to major losses.
Those that have not invested or traded through a major bear market have little idea how hard it will feel to buy near the bottom. How shunned you might feel, because virtually everyone else will tell you to wait, that it is going down some more, or be dead money at best. Again, no one knows if this is Ursa Minor or Major, until the decline is over. During bear markets the rallies are sharp and short, and good for traders (vs. stackers). At major market bottoms, virtually no one will want to buy. Many former perma-bulls will either have sold due to necessity, and perhaps so sick of the stuff, they don't even come to the forum any more. Dealers, of course, can still make money on the spread in bear or bull markets, and still have a vested interest in hawking their wares, as they always do.
It's true that the recent action in the metals looks like a bear market, and it's true that it's hard to find direction when everything moves against your position. It's all true.
And it was also difficult to justify buying at $6.00 in 2006 when things looked pretty drab. Then, it was even harder to buy at $12.00 in 2007 or so when things looked overbought. And it was plainly stupid to buy at $21.00 in 2008 right at the top of the spike. (I don't regret ANY of those buys, because they ALL increased my holdings).
The point here is that you follow your own plan, and you don't become dependent upon the market's unpredictable nature. Yes, we could very well be in a bear market, but I'd say if that's the case it has already been longer than 2 years. If you listen to cohodk, we've been deflating for awhile (in spite of QE) and I agree with that assessment.
Deflation, or money destruction - has been occurring at the same time that the Fed has been pumping new money into it's own version of welfare for the banking system. These bogus dislocations of wealth result in losses by the public and new money for the banks to distribute in inherently inequitable ways.
It is my contention that the deflationary trends in housing, employment and personal incomes will result in a greater need for more inflationary policies, not less.
Whether or not you subscribe to any manipulation theories, the goal is to maintain personal purchasing power. If you know when a market is going to retrace (or rebound) you simply can't lose. I don't know anyone who is that good, every time. Regardless of what someone might tell you, they aren't a financial genius. I don't care who they are.
The remedy, for me, is careful money management and that means sticking to a plan, any plan that has some forethought and money management built into it. It's not rocket science.
I knew it would happen.
Another question to ask yourself which asset classes deserve your cash in the current market environment:
- US stocks hitting new all-time highs with stagnating economy? Pass
- International stocks but still quite correlated with US stock markets? Maybe in selected markets but overall potentially prone to the correction
- Bonds in the current environment of rising interest rates ? Pass
- Real estate recovering after major crash in the rising interest rates environment? Maybe but also questionable in the current environment of rising interest rates
- Cash equivalents yielding 0.00000% with hidden real inflation eating into it
- Hard assets such as PMs after 30-50% correction ? Not the worst choice compared to above if you ask me
Over time it's a good game, and for most people, dollar-cost averaging into them all is a much better strategy than going all-in with just one of those sectors
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Agree with Baley.
Which is why if you follow asset-class allocation philosophy is time to move some $$$ from run-up stocks and FI to beaten-down PMs
Also to match increase in RE prices that are hard to re-balance unless you own some REITs to maintain similar ratios it's time to increase the PM portion as well
to buy in the low $20s?
Or do you feel its never going to rise again? Like the 1960s...what a ride...come and gone..but you were there man....
Loves me some shiny!
<< <i>Huh? if you bought in the $30's or $40's , how can you not be overjoyed at the opportunity
to buy in the low $20s?
Or do you feel its never going to rise again? Like the 1960s...what a ride...come and gone..but you were there man.... >>
I have added 1,200 oz. of .999 silver from the $18-25 range probably averaging around $22-23. I also have added $250 face of bu 40% halves for $2.75 a coin and $10 face of war nickels for 80 cents each. I have stayed away from 90% as it is selling for an outrageous premium.
If silver falls into the mid teens I have more money to deploy as I love buying when it's on sale!
It's also a proven and time-tested way not to benefit from the hyperbolic rise that will surely surprise most investors.
I was there in 1978-1980, and I was there with leverage. Those were heady times indeed.
(no leverage for me this time around, no reason to get crazy at this point, but I did just buy a couple more 1 ozers)
I knew it would happen.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
<< <i>Huh? if you bought in the $30's or $40's , how can you not be overjoyed at the opportunity
to buy in the low $20s?
Or do you feel its never going to rise again? Like the 1960s...what a ride...come and gone..but you were there man.... >>
I bought some in February 2012 when silver was about $32. Someone at the last coin club meeting asked me if I was buying silver now that it was $24. I told him no. There is a chance that this is a big one and best to let the dust settle before picking the money out of the falling safe. Stupid and irrational? Perhaps. The reasoning is that the market has changed. For silver it is clearly a bear market, now several years in length, about a 60% decline from the highs. Again, for those that haven't lived through a major bear market, it can go on for years. Bear markets have lower highs and lower lows. Yes, there will be rallies, but a return to $32 much less $45 may be a long ways off. After years of decline, virtually no one will want to buy when it bottoms. At a bottom, if someone mentions it to someone they will not say, "good idea." They might say "are you crazy? it is going to be lower next year for sure, or at best even?" Just as bull markets condition folks to buy the dips, bear markets condition folks to sell rallies, and always wait for a lower low to buy.
There is opportunity cost as well. While a price bottom is always enticing, time can be just as important as price. For example, those that bought gold at $800, didn't lose it all. The old move of $800 to $270 on gold is not much worse than silver $45 to $20. However, the time element of buying in the 1980s and waiting until 2000 for the gold market to turn back into a real bull market is the killer. The percentage loss from top at $800 to bottom at $270 is about 66%. Gold didn't go to zero as promised. However, the opportunity cost translates to about a 95% loss. A person sitting in gold all those years missed huge opportunities in other asset classes. The gold investor with 100 ounces at $800 sat and watched $80k turn into $27k. A stock investor, or bond, or even a CD holder may have $240k to 500k by the time gold turned up again (no leverage). With leverage in something like real estate, it might be even a bigger contrast.
By the same token, the inflation and unemployment figures are skewed, the debt isn't solved, and neither are the massive unfunded liabilities. To me, this makes just about everything a gamble as to when more serious changes will start to occur.
Further, I believe that once some of these serious changes start to occur, a cascading effect will happen quickly - probably much faster than most people will be able to react. Waiting for Godot.
I knew it would happen.