Strasburg rookie "investors" getting nervous?

larryallen73

With Stephen Strasburg 1-4 are the people that invested in his rookie cards getting nervous?

I haven't seen him pitch this year so have no clue if he's just getting unlucky or what.

Just curious.

Cakes

<< <i>With Stephen Strasburg 1-4 are the people that invested in his rookie cards getting nervous?

I haven't seen him pitch this year so have no clue if he's just getting unlucky or what.

Just curious. >>



They should be, he is not the same since the injury, I hope he can adjust to not having the electric stuff anymore. With that being said the Nats defense has been awful, the bats terrible outside of Harper and his control has been a little off. I still think he is a good pitcher just not Nolan Ryan/Doc Gooden type that he looked like before the injury.

mcadams

<< <i>With Stephen Strasburg 1-4 are the people that invested in his rookie cards getting nervous?

I haven't seen him pitch this year so have no clue if he's just getting unlucky or what.

Just curious. >>



Great discussion topic. I'll bet that they are definitely a bit nervous right now. He hasn't earned the right to have a bad season w/o it tarnishing his reputation.

CubsKiller99

<< <i>Great discussion topic. I'll bet that they are definitely a bit nervous right now. He hasn't earned the right to have a bad season w/o it tarnishing his reputation. >>



This is precisely why I don't collect modern. Unproven talent that may or may not pan out long-term. It's just so speculative,
and if you enjoy that aspect and can get your cards cheap, go for it. If you're "investing" and paying serious money for Dharvish,
Strasburg or Harpet et al., please see someone who can examine your head.

Surely the Mike Greenwell, Greg Jefferies, David Justice and Kerry Wood lessons of the past are worth something.

Pitchers more than position players are the most speculative. They often get arm trouble and have short careers.

Take a look at the list of rookie of the year phenoms from the past 30 years if you're a betting man and then decide if
you're going to be able to pick a hall of fame candidate worthy of "investing" your money in:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/roy_rol.shtml

gregmo32

Investors are definitely nervous. However, his stuff is just fine and he has had some bad luck to start the year. He will have a long, great career. And... investors are definitely nervous.

alifaxwa2

As a Nats fan, I have 2 auto rookies of his ~$250 spent total.

While, yes, his record sucks, but his stat line isn't that bad;
W--L---ERA----G---IP----H---R----ER---HR---BB---SO---AVG----WHIP
1---4---3.16----5--31.1--27--15--11----3----8-----28---.221----1.12

Yes, his strikeouts are down, but the Nats have only scored 9 runs TOTAL in the 5 games he has pitched.

Dboneesq

<< <i>Great discussion topic. I'll bet that they are definitely a bit nervous right now. He hasn't earned the right to have a bad season w/o it tarnishing his reputation. >>


AGREED! If he had 5 strong seasons behind him it may be different ... but he doesn't!

BPorter26

The first month isn't even over , so what if they guy is 1-4 his era is solid as it's just over 3. In his 4 losses he gave up 6,0,3,2 earned runs, but I have learned over the years you do not invest in rookie pitchers. To name a few of the recent pitchers that had a ton of hype and fell hard are Todd Van Poppel, Kerry Wood, Brian Taylor, Ben McDonald and my all-time favorite is Kris Benson of the Pirates.

burke23

Wow...this is a bit premature. He has AS numbers outside of his w-l record...can't believe that is being viewed as an indicator of his performance.

stormtrooper80

somewhere today, Kerry Wood is laughing out loud thinking about the guy who bought that Strasburg 1/1

1954

Strausburg is pitching very well right now. The command of his pitches is still there. With him being the number 1 starter of the Nationals unfortunately he goes against other #1 pitchers of other teams. He may not get but 11-13 wins this year but his WHIP and ERA will be very impressive.
As far as investing in modern player cards, I tend to not do this either. The risk of injury, PED's or moral issues always comes into play. The only person that I feel might be a good investment long term is Harper. Harper is legit!

Shane

CubsKiller99

<< <i>somewhere today, Kerry Wood is laughing out loud thinking about the guy who bought that Strasburg 1/1 >>



+1

CubsKiller99

<< <i>As far as investing in modern player cards, I tend to not do this either. The risk of injury, PED's or moral issues always comes into play. The only person that I feel might be a good investment long term is Harper. Harper is legit! Shane >>



Agreed -- he appears to be. We'll see.

In general position players are a much better bet. Pitchers are incredibly variable.

Cakes

Hell I agree he is still a fine pitcher but he just isn't the dominant, overpowering pitcher he was before the injury. Maybe it's not such a bad thing and he will evolve into a great pitcher I just miss the excitement he used to generate pre injury when he was striking out 10+ batters each outing.

digicat

Strasburg rookie cards will probably never be more valuable than they were before he threw his first major league pitch.


The hype machine was just way aggressive with his prices early on.

epatmythes

<< <i>Strasburg rookie cards will probably never be more valuable than they were before he threw his first major league pitch.


The hype machine was just way aggressive with his prices early on. >>



+1

I still own a couple Strasburg rookies... nothing with any real money tied up in them. Otherwise, I was a seller during the hype.

Learned my lesson in 2001/02... invested hard in Mark Prior... never again will I speculate/hold on the cards of a young phenom pitcher!

Cakes

<< <i>

<< <i>Strasburg rookie cards will probably never be more valuable than they were before he threw his first major league pitch.


The hype machine was just way aggressive with his prices early on. >>



+1

I still own a couple Strasburg rookies... nothing with any real money tied up in them. Otherwise, I was a seller during the hype.

Learned my lesson in 2001/02... invested hard in Mark Prior... never again will I speculate/hold on the cards of a young phenom pitcher! >>




Agreed the three or four hundred Ramon Martinez's RC's taught me that lesson tears ago. If I had only bought the Pedro's.

markj111

Surely the Mike Greenwell, Greg Jefferies, David Justice and Kerry Wood lessons of the past are worth something.

Greenwell and Justice do not belong in this conversation. Three points worth mentioning:

1. Stasburg's ERA is barely above three.
2. He's still getting his Ks.
3. Investing in the cards of any young pticher is a risky proposition.

Cakes

<< <i>Surely the Mike Greenwell, Greg Jefferies, David Justice and Kerry Wood lessons of the past are worth something.

Greenwell and Justice do not belong in this conversation. Three points worth mentioning:

1. Stasburg's ERA is barely above three.
2. He's still getting his Ks.
3. Investing in the cards of any young pticher is a risky proposition. >>



K's are down, hasn't even been close to double digits if my memory serves me right(have watched most games) going Friday night, pretty sure Zimmerman is pitching.

CubsKiller99

The non-pitchers I mentioned were just a cautionary warning that even outstanding young position players can be risky.

If you want some more very highly-touted pitchers besides Wood that could be a better fit, I give you:

Mark Prior
Dontrelle Willis
Jason Jennings
Scott Williamson
Hideo Nomo
Kazuhiro Sasaki
Gregg Olson

Rudedawg

I can't imagine Strasburg "investors" are feeling especially great right now. But, as it's been said, it's early and his other numbers are solid. W/L records are the first stat that people look at, so it looks worse than it is.

I don't collect modern or prospects, except for Bryce Harper. I do so because I love the way the kid plays and he has performed well in a short time. However, I only buy raw cards that I like the appearance of. Don't care to speculate on price. If he takes a nose-dive, I'm out $40.

Unproven short or intermediate players are certainly a recipe for disaster to throw thousands at. Unless, you get a thrill from burning money.

GB5HOF

I think investing in pitchers is tough in general. Look at guys who have had great careers that aren't worth anything. Like Tim Hudson. Strasburg, Harvey, etc will be extremely fortunate to have a career as solid as Hudson. Dude is about to win his 200th in the next week or so, and no one cares. He's also almost 100 games over .500 (199-105) Unreal.

Hallco

So what you are telling me is.....there are actually people who spend tons of money "investing" in sportscards with the intention of later selling and making a profit? I wonder how many of those people are actual fans of Strasburg and like his cards regardless of how valuable (or lack thereof)in the future?

ReggieCleveland

<< <i>

<< <i>Surely the Mike Greenwell, Greg Jefferies, David Justice and Kerry Wood lessons of the past are worth something.

Pitchers more than position players are the most speculative. They often get arm trouble and have short careers.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/roy_rol.shtml >>



I'm not sure I can find a single common thread among the four players you listed.

CubsKiller99

The three non-pitchers had rookie cards that were beyond overpriced.

Ridiculous speculation on Greenwell, Jefferies and Justice. People buying 100-card lots of these
guys for high prices.

They were all going to be the next Ted Williams or Hank Aaron.

And today -- well you know what their rookie cards are worth unless PSA 10 with a nostalgic buyer
trying to complete his registry set.

stormtrooper80

Mike Greenwell - 1988 AL MVP

markj111

<< <i>Mike Greenwell - 1988 AL MVP >>



In what universe was he the MVP?

markj111

<< <i>The non-pitchers I mentioned were just a cautionary warning that even outstanding young position players can be risky.

If you want some more very highly-touted pitchers besides Wood that could be a better fit, I give you:

Mark Prior
Dontrelle Willis
Jason Jennings
Scott Williamson
Hideo Nomo
Kazuhiro Sasaki
Gregg Olson >>




Only Prior had anything close the to hype that Strasburg had. There's a difference between having a decent season and being treated as the best thing since Walter Johnson. I'm a Braves fan, and I loved David Justice; but I never thought he was going to be a great player. Scott Williamson's career high in innings pitched was 112. Olson was a relief pitcher. Willis was an 8th round pick who was traded before he ever got to the majors. Jennings walked too many from the day he showed up. Not exactly the stuff of legend.

hammered

<< <i>The first month isn't even over , so what if they guy is 1-4 his era is solid as it's just over 3. In his 4 losses he gave up 6,0,3,2 earned runs, but I have learned over the years you do not invest in rookie pitchers. To name a few of the recent pitchers that had a ton of hype and fell hard are Todd Van Poppel, Kerry Wood, Brian Taylor, Ben McDonald and my all-time favorite is Kris Benson of the Pirates. >>




I always followed Kris Benson
because of his wife

digicat

I think it's funny that a 2010 Bowman Chrome Strasburg rookie auto will cost the same as a 2005 Bowman Chrome Justin Verlander rookie auto.

mcadams

[q
Surely the Mike Greenwell, Greg Jefferies, David Justice and Kerry Wood lessons of the past are worth something.
q]

I totally get your point. However, David Justice had a very solid career including hitting the GW homerun in the '95 series vs. Cleveland. He was a fan favorite in Atlanta for most of the 90's and carried the offense along with Ron Gant. Justice is certainly not someone to include in a conversation with Greg Jeffries etc. Just sayin....

digicat

<< <i>If you want some more very highly-touted pitchers besides Wood that could be a better fit, I give you:

Mark Prior
Dontrelle Willis
Jason Jennings
Scott Williamson
Hideo Nomo
Kazuhiro Sasaki
Gregg Olson >>



After Prior, you just went down the Rookie of the Year winner list, didn't you?

I don't remember Gregg Olson being very highly touted anywhere else other than Baltimore. His card listings in Beckett got a little bump when he won the Rookie of the Year, but they weren't worth much. Ramon Martinez, Tom Gordon, and Jim Abbott where the hot pitchers among collectors that year, and after them no one really cared about anyone else.

Cakes

<< <i>

<< <i>The non-pitchers I mentioned were just a cautionary warning that even outstanding young position players can be risky.

If you want some more very highly-touted pitchers besides Wood that could be a better fit, I give you:

Mark Prior
Dontrelle Willis
Jason Jennings
Scott Williamson
Hideo Nomo
Kazuhiro Sasaki
Gregg Olson >>




Only Prior had anything close the to hype that Strasburg had. There's a difference between having a decent season and being treated as the best thing since Walter Johnson. I'm a Braves fan, and I loved David Justice; but I never thought he was going to be a great player. Scott Williamson's career high in innings pitched was 112. Olson was a relief pitcher. Willis was an 8th round pick who was traded before he ever got to the majors. Jennings walked too many from the day he showed up. Not exactly the stuff of legend. >>



Kerry Wood was also highly touted.

CNote

Sasaki came over as a Japanese vet/ MLB rookie. While he played he was pretty damn good. He has no place among the Wood/Pryor conversation.

swartz1

you mean the guy with an earned run avg. of 3.16 and no run support?

Cakes

<< <i>you mean the guy with an earned run avg. of 3.16 and no run support? >>



and terrible defense also.

Tabe

<< <i>Hell I agree he is still a fine pitcher but he just isn't the dominant, overpowering pitcher he was before the injury. >>


???

He was 15-6 with a 3.16 ERA (same as he has right now, btw) last year after the injury, while striking out 197 guys in 159 innings. How is that NOT dominant? 11.1 K/9?

emar

I learned my lesson with modern "investments"....Greenwell, Burrell, Sabo, {fill in the blank}

Verlander feels like more of a solid modern investment.

As a Phillies fan, I'm hoping Halladay can finish out his career strong for a run at the Hall.

HOF pitching careers are one in a million. (figuratively speaking)

GDM67

<< <i>I think investing in pitchers is tough in general. Look at guys who have had great careers that aren't worth anything. Like Tim Hudson. Strasburg, Harvey, etc will be extremely fortunate to have a career as solid as Hudson. Dude is about to win his 200th in the next week or so, and no one cares. He's also almost 100 games over .500 (199-105) Unreal. >>

All too true. Plenty of his rookies graded and very little else.

perkdog

Just to go off topic for a minute here, what I will find absolutely hilarious is if Strasburg is not as "legendary" as the hype AND the Nats dont sniff another playoff game for years, especially after last year and that completely ridiculas idea of shutting him down for the stretch run and playoffs. I got a running bet with my buddy that the Nats will NOT win a world series in the next 2 years, my buddy relentlessly defendes that Strasburg move and thinks they will be a winner within the next 2 years.

The wager- a very expensive Steak Dinner.

jackstraw

<< <i>

<< <i>Mike Greenwell - 1988 AL MVP >>



In what universe was he the MVP? >>



Canseco won it and Greenwell was second..

CubsKiller99

<< <i>

<< <i>The non-pitchers I mentioned were just a cautionary warning that even outstanding young position players can be risky.

If you want some more very highly-touted pitchers besides Wood that could be a better fit, I give you:

Mark Prior
Dontrelle Willis
Jason Jennings
Scott Williamson
Hideo Nomo
Kazuhiro Sasaki
Gregg Olson >>




Only Prior had anything close the to hype that Strasburg had. There's a difference between having a decent season and being treated as the best thing since Walter Johnson. I'm a Braves fan, and I loved David Justice; but I never thought he was going to be a great player. Scott Williamson's career high in innings pitched was 112. Olson was a relief pitcher. Willis was an 8th round pick who was traded before he ever got to the majors. Jennings walked too many from the day he showed up. Not exactly the stuff of legend. >>



Of course hindsight is 20-20 -- the whole point of my argument is that speculation on cards of young players is kind of
silly given the limited sample of their performance (IF THE PRICE IS HIGH). Unless you can get 'em cheap.

Every pitcher on that list EXCEPT Prior was a rookie-of-the year. The season following
their award they were going to start becoming the stuff of legend.

And it never happened. They might have been good for a few years, or even more than a few
but the expectation is that a ROY is going to become a solid career player. And it just
doesn't work out that way very often for young pitchers. It really seems to me that the more
they're hyped the more they're oeverworked and have even less chance of becoming a legend.

Perhaps Strasburg can escape that pattern, since they feel they can win in the playoffs without him.
Shut him down every year in September -- that will prolong his career and give my Cardinals a
better chance to win get to the series.

letsgocapitals

If anyone wants to sell me some rc autos at a discounted price, I'm all ears!

letsgocapitals

Here's a good article --- http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/35210/nationals-only-500-but-no-reason-to-worry

Stephen Strasburg is 1-4 with a 3.16 ERA, but the ERA is a little misleading because it doesn't include four unearned runs. He's allowed 15 runs in 31.1 innings. His problems seem correctable -- opponents are hitting .360 against him in the first inning, .186 after that, and he's had issues locating his fastball in the first inning (strike percentage of 46 compared to 58 in the ensuing innings). The bigger issue is his inconsistency against left-handed batters, something trending downward:

April 2012: .504 OPS
May 2012: .708 OPS
June 2012: .563 OPS
July 2012: 1.172 OPS
August 2012: .552 OPS
September 2012: .800 OPS
April 2013: .776 OPS

My take --- SS is a smart, very driven kid. He'll figure this out. His ERA is 3.16. Pretty good that we can say a guy with a 3.16 is off to slow start... ha!

As far as his record is concerned, the Nats are scoring 1.8 runs in those starts... third worst in MLB this year. You do the math.

CubsKiller99

The Cardinals handled him recently but it was a low-scoring game. He looks solid and should have
a very good year before all is said and done.

The Nationals will have their hands full with the Braves, they're on fire now and have a very stong
ballclub. Should be an interesting September.

mcadams

<< <i>The Cardinals handled him recently but it was a low-scoring game. He looks solid and should have
a very good year before all is said and done.

The Nationals will have their hands full with the Braves, they're on fire now and have a very stong
ballclub. Should be an interesting September. >>



And don't forget that the Braves are playing without their top offensive player (McCann) and #2 SP (Beachy). Beachy coming back from Tommy John sometime around the all-star break.

Cakes

<< <i>

<< <i>Hell I agree he is still a fine pitcher but he just isn't the dominant, overpowering pitcher he was before the injury. >>


???

He was 15-6 with a 3.16 ERA (same as he has right now, btw) last year after the injury, while striking out 197 guys in 159 innings. How is that NOT dominant? 11.1 K/9? >>



If you combined last year and this year his strikeouts are down, not the same pitcher period, if you re read my posts on this thread you will see I like him and have defended him but it still doesn't change the fact that he isn't the same prior to the injury. He isn't our Nolan Ryan/Doc Gooden type.

letsgocapitals

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>Hell I agree he is still a fine pitcher but he just isn't the dominant, overpowering pitcher he was before the injury. >>


???

He was 15-6 with a 3.16 ERA (same as he has right now, btw) last year after the injury, while striking out 197 guys in 159 innings. How is that NOT dominant? 11.1 K/9? >>



If you combined last year and this year his strikeouts are down, not the same pitcher period, if you re read my posts on this thread you will see I like him and have defended him but it still doesn't change the fact that he isn't the same prior to the injury. He isn't our Nolan Ryan/Doc Gooden type. >>



And if you actually followed SS, you'd know that he isn't trying to strike guys out like before he got hurt. He recognized that going after Ks was increasing the number of pitches he throws; and he couldn't go deep into games. He's learning to pitch to contact so he can go deep. Obviously the pitch count didn't help last year. But his approach is different.

Cakes

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>Hell I agree he is still a fine pitcher but he just isn't the dominant, overpowering pitcher he was before the injury. >>


???

He was 15-6 with a 3.16 ERA (same as he has right now, btw) last year after the injury, while striking out 197 guys in 159 innings. How is that NOT dominant? 11.1 K/9? >>



If you combined last year and this year his strikeouts are down, not the same pitcher period, if you re read my posts on this thread you will see I like him and have defended him but it still doesn't change the fact that he isn't the same prior to the injury. He isn't our Nolan Ryan/Doc Gooden type. >>



And if you actually followed SS, you'd know that he isn't trying to strike guys out like before he got hurt. He recognized that going after Ks was increasing the number of pitches he throws; and he couldn't go deep into games. He's learning to pitch to contact so he can go deep. Obviously the pitch count didn't help last year. But his approach is different. >>




I repeat all valid points and I have defended SS enough in this thread but the OP's post was are investors getting worried and post injury his star power has gone down some, I am not sure how anyone can argue that point. But I am done argueing or hearing he is learning to pitch another way, etc...again they are all valid.

I am going to the game tonight with Zim on the hill and I am not that upset I don't get to see SS. I miss going to games thinking he might break the single game strikeout record. The other day he had 3. But before I start geting beat down like I am BBG I am respectfully backing away from this thread.

GO NATS

mcadams

The great ones can amass high strikeouts AND go deep into games.

telephoto1

Did anyone see the highlights of Strasburg throwing everywhere but over the plate against the Braves? He finally got it together a bit...he was constantly shaking his arm... but the official "forearm tightness" diagnosis seemed more like an excuse to me. He just didn't have good control early on and his stats this season show it...in the first inning, he has a 10.80 ERA, and an opponents BA of .360. Good recap here. link here Comments?