What would you spend 25,000 dollars on?
MintMoondog
Posts: 969 ✭
Let's say hypothetically you are going to run into 25,000.00 in extra cash I the next couple days that you can invest in cards freely. What would you suggest this person spend the dollars on: two current options - call up Fritsch and buy up 70s unopened material or start building a 1957 topps PSA set. Suggestions?
75 Minis - GET IN MY BELLY!
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Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
-A rare late 60's or early 70's topps box from any sport (from BBCE). Maybe 2 years ago on his site, he had a 69 Topps football second series box. A '71 Topps box. Those things are gobbled up in about 5 minutes.
The opportunity to buy those in the next 5 years I think are going to be few and far between. He also had a 68/69 Topps hockey box I think. Where do see that?
When you have to go back a few years to find a comparable box being sold by a big auction house, you know its rare.
My Podcast - Now FEATURED on iTunes
Thanks for the advice everyone. The last thing I would want to put the money in is the stock market. Life it too short, I'd rather be able to enjoy the cards then stare at balance sheets and watch Bloomberg
'54 Topps Gordie Howe, my fav. Hockey card of all-time
'57 Bill Russell RC
'61 Fleer Jerry West RC
'33 Sport King Red Grange
'34 Goudey Gehrig
Nice examples of these five would run close to $25,000 .
<< <i>For $25k I'd buy these in PSA 8's:
'54 Topps Gordie Howe, my fav. Hockey card of all-time
'57 Bill Russell RC
'61 Fleer Jerry West RC
'33 Sport King Red Grange
'34 Goudey Gehrig
Nice examples of these five would run close to $25,000 . >>
I'm in agreement. In general, I'd put my money on 1 or 2 solid vintage cards than gambling on unopened packs. 55 Clemente and Koufax in psa 8 would be under budget
Unopened is a great place also but it has a more limited audience.
Buy today for 25K is it worth 35K in 5 years quite possibly.
Hi end rc or rarer superstars are always in demand. It might be easier to sell 5 5k cards than (1) 25k item
add
51 howe
51 richard
to the 54 howe (awesome card and very scarce)
They were recently auctioned by pwcc and get big $
also
61 chamberlain
61 Big-O
61 Baylor
any hi end mantle that is centered
If unopened...don't compete w/ fritsch
who know how much he has and couild quite possible control the market
1948-76 Topps FB Sets
FB & BB HOF Player sets
1948-1993 NY Yankee Team Sets
here is a related question based on the advice given. It appears that most of you favor more classic cards in the 5K range such as the Howe, etc. Do you suppose that looking 5 years out more recent cards have a higher ceiling in regards to growth potential? (Let's say very high end rookies from the mid sixties to the end of the 70s). That is, might it be better to acquire 12 strong 70s cards at around 2K each rather than 5 5K cards from the 30s-50s?
Is it possible that the realized prices of cards from the 50s are basically established with more safety from decline but less potential for gains?
1925 Exhibit Lou Gehrig any grade since they are almost impossible to find.
1920's-1930's Ruth in nice condition.
A Gehrig signed photo
A Ruth signed photo
What ever is left 1940 Play Ball HOF'ers in PSA 7 or higher.
Dave
<< <i>That is, might it be better to acquire 12 strong 70s cards at around 2K each rather than 5 5K cards from the 30s-50s? >>
If one can assume the economy stays where it is, I would think that the 70's are the next boom -- the number of guys in their 40's with significant disposable income will grow, and they will seek to recapture the nostalgia of their youth. I am not talking about 8's - rather, top grades from each year. Seems to be a boom going on now, but I think more to come.
Bosox1976
Shane
There are many cards in our hobby that fit that simple criteria. I'm talking about the top tier names in terms of popularity among collectors like Mantle, Mays, Aaron, Williams, Koufax, Rose, Ryan, Schmidt, Brett, Cobb, Ruth, Gehrig, Jordan, Jeter, Ripken, et al. Whomever you like of those AAA-rated and heavily collected names. I would choose these guys over other greats who just aren't the first cards most collectors chase, and these would be names like Yount, McCovey, Murray, Carlton, Blyleven, Frank Robinson, even Carew...great HOFers to be sure and must-haves for any collection, but think of it this way...
Ever go on iTunes and select those featured artist compilations? They first give you the obvious big hits, the most popular songs, that's Tier I. Then you have the next steps, akin to the latter group of players mentioned above, aka Tier II. Then the "deep cuts" for building an "advanced collection" which might be rare unpopular issues or unopened packs or entire graded sets or error cards. These items have immense worth and appeal to collectors, to be sure, but if you ever had to sell in a pinch, the Tier I items would be easiest to find buyers for, and there is so much sales history there.
As to unopened, look, I love it-- who doesn't-- the sight of it takes us back instantly to boyhood and for packs that predate our youth it seems like a treasure that could hold untold value. But I just don't have the faith in the ability to authenticate the truly high-end product, not the same confidence I have in the ability to grade a single card.
IF you had a set amount to spend and cared about ease, swiftness, and safety of future resale-- the fact is that unopened is just not as widely collected as the blue chip RCs. Many collectors don't want the risk of ripping and getting OC junk. Others worry about resealed packs. I know many guys just getting back into the hobby, some in their 40s, some in their 20s; first they want the cards they had as a kid, then they go for the cards they lusted after as a kid, and usually the latter are Tier I cards like RCs of Ryan, Brett, Schmidt, Rose, and Mantles. I tell them about unopened and they express great appreciation and interest, but there is trepidation there for the newcomer: about what lies inside quality-wise, and resealing. These factors will always ensure you have more buyers down the line of the blue chip graded single cards. Again this is only if you care about the ease, swiftness, and safety of an eventual resale. If buying to keep forever under all circumstances then it all becomes rather moot.
For me, the undeniable "Jose" stain on unopened-- and the way it has yet to be dealt with in a forthright manner, in terms of a statement to the hobby about extent-- will always prevent me from shelling out the same money on unopened as I would on a single graded card. Yes, cards get trimmed, but there are several grading companies with many graders working at them who can detect an altered card-- whereas there is only one sole accepted expert in authenticating packs. If BBCE/Hart left the hobby, who knows what would happen to that segment? I will say Hart does a great job and the product so many of us have opened over the years is a huge, unassailable testament to that. But some of the most high profile packs in the hobby, which would stand to face the most scrutiny, got by the authentication process. This is fact-- the guy who did it admitted to it. To me, this and the comparatively thin pool of buyers for unopened trumps the rarity of the material, and is why-- if I had to choose-- I'd go with graded RCs of the game's most beloved/popular players.
You could spend the 25K on an assortment of PreWar, Post War, some 70s, some modern, and some unopened and thus have real variety, that way-- assuming future resale or possible resale is a factor here-- you'd be diverse and if one segment really exploded, you'd get a taste of that. Or if one tanked, vice versa.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
This is, in my opinion, the area that has the most growth potential.
The differences between a graded 8 and 9 are often extremely small, yet the price differential is often huge, at times unjustifiably so.
I think it's much more plausible for example, that a Jerry Rice rookie in PSA 8 will double from a $50 to a $100 card, than a PSA 9 growing from a $300 to a $600 card, especially as populations continue to rise.
If money wasn't an object, I'd buy the best available copy. But if I had a budget or a fixed amount to spend, I'd stick to upper-end 8s.
Edit: for example, I think I would do better long term with six high-end centered PSA 8 '80 Henderson rookies than one PSA 9 copy.
And, I believe PSA 8s are less subject to declines in value due to eventual population increases. Collectors will buy 8s because they want a nice copy of the card. They buy 9s because of the scarcity. If a PSA 9 increases from pop 10 to a pop 25, the value will decline. I don't think 8s will suffer similar declines as populations rise.
My feeling, is that unopened is going to be a fantastic investment especially if you can get 1970's (even at a high price) BASEBALL. I would invest in that and not rip it. Eventually some of the older unopened is going to get ripped as collectors look for that "mint" rookie card, or just want to enjoy ripping. All of the other ideas are good, but if you buy a single card or a bunch of slabbed HOF'ers, those items will not be getting any rarer, whereas unopened will.
Personally, I would upgrade every card I could in my Killebrew set starting with a PSA9 rookie card and go from there. You can't go wrong collecting what you enjoy with "free" money!
Joe
For 25K one could get a centered PSA 7 Mantle RC and a PSA 4 #311. I'd take those two over almost any unopened of the same price all day.
Also, while I understand and agree with the logic behind unopened's increasing rarity, which is so often touted, we have to admit that many guys are buying it and holding it in that unopened state-- so it's not like so much of it is being ripped and causing this rarity.
When buying unopened for investment purposes it is tempting to think of how it is being ripped by others who are making it rare, but is this really the case? I look around and don't see guys ripping $1000 boxes or $10,000 vending boxes. Nor are educated collectors-- and I'd venture that advanced collectors are the ones buying expensive boxes-- ripping them because they know how tight cellos hurt corners, how OC cards are in general... So again it's tempting to say, "unopened gets ripped by others and becomes more rare," but I really think more guys are saving it thinking that than there are guys actually ripping it-- let alone at a rate that will make all the hoarded boxes rise exponentially.
I also think the attractive, seductive, and sound logic of unopened being rare often belies the fact that what is actually inside is 90% of the time so depressingly underwhelming. So the value is just in keeping it in that unopened state, and dreaming about what could be... In that respect unopened reminds me of like a lotto ticket that one never checks, because until you find out you lost, you could always be a winner.
None of this is to knock vintage unopened because I think it's great; I've bought a lot of nostalgia boxes from BBCE. I just think that upon closer inspection, the old argument that a vintage box will get rarer because the others are being ripped is a bit specious-- because I see them being held onto for investment purposes and not actually being ripped.
<< <i>When discussing the comparative rarity of unopened versus single cards, it all depends on specifically what slabbed HOFers and what unopened material one is talking about and at what grade. For example I think there are far more 1970s packs and boxes of cellos, wax, and vending lying around then there are CJ Jacksons and Babe Ruth RCs. Hard to think in general terms on that one. I view for example a 1954 Bowman wax box much differently than a 1973 wax box, assuming both can be authenticated.
For 25K one could get a centered PSA 7 Mantle RC and a PSA 4 #311. I'd take those two over almost any unopened of the same price all day.
Also, while I understand and agree with the logic behind unopened's increasing rarity, which is so often touted, we have to admit that many guys are buying it and holding it in that unopened state-- so it's not like so much of it is being ripped and causing this rarity.
When buying unopened for investment purposes it is tempting to think of how it is being ripped by others who are making it rare, but is this really the case? I look around and don't see guys ripping $1000 boxes or $10,000 vending boxes. Nor are educated collectors-- and I'd venture that advanced collectors are the ones buying expensive boxes-- ripping them because they know how tight cellos hurt corners, how OC cards are in general... So again it's tempting to say, "unopened gets ripped by others and becomes more rare," but I really think more guys are saving it thinking that than there are guys actually ripping it-- let alone at a rate that will make all the hoarded boxes rise exponentially.
I also think the attractive, seductive, and sound logic of unopened being rare often belies the fact that what is actually inside is 90% of the time so depressingly underwhelming. So the value is just in keeping it in that unopened state, and dreaming about what could be... In that respect unopened reminds me of like a lotto ticket that one never checks, because until you find out you lost, you could always be a winner.
None of this is to knock vintage unopened because I think it's great; I've bought a lot of nostalgia boxes from BBCE. I just think that upon closer inspection, the old argument that a vintage box will get rarer because the others are being ripped is a bit specious-- because I see them being held onto for investment purposes and not actually being ripped. >>
Matty,
I am sure there are unopened collectors out there like myself who keep most of their boxes and packs sealed, but there is also no question in my mind that a lot of product gets ripped, too, especially if we are talking about 70s unopened product (see BBG with 78 & 79 and guys like Miniduff who have ripped cases of 75 minis, and Nick who ripped a very rare high series 1970 Topps baseball wax box not too far back). The fact that there is a finite supply of vintage unopened product from this era means that supply can move in just one direction--down--while the number of graded cards for any specific issue (with the granted exception of 60s and earlier, fow which I will agree that little unopened is being ripped because the ROI just isn't practical) can only increase in number. Just ask Steve Hart how less plentiful 70s unopened (and even early 80s unopened) has become in the past decade. Those are the metrics I would use to determine scarcity--is there sufficient supply of product to meet demand and is such supply finite and can only decrease in quantity. By comparison, the number of PSA 9 1975 Brett of Ryan cards will only increase in time, making the latter less scarce by most collectors' definitions. I remember when I graded my PSA 9 75 mini aaron which I pulled from a pack about 5 years ago--it was a pop 22 at the time and worth about $500. Now it's a pop 27 card and still worth probably $500, maybe a bit more. By comparison, though, the mini wax I pulled it from was bought for 1K. That same mini wax box today would set me back upwards of $1,700.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>I would buy as many well-centered PSA 8s of HOFers and stars between the years 69-86 that I could find with that 25k.
This is, in my opinion, the area that has the most growth potential.
The differences between a graded 8 and 9 are often extremely small, yet the price differential is often huge, at times unjustifiably so.
I think it's much more plausible for example, that a Jerry Rice rookie in PSA 8 will double from a $50 to a $100 card, than a PSA 9 growing from a $300 to a $600 card, especially as populations continue to rise.
If money wasn't an object, I'd buy the best available copy. But if I had a budget or a fixed amount to spend, I'd stick to upper-end 8s.
Edit: for example, I think I would do better long term with six high-end centered PSA 8 '80 Henderson rookies than one PSA 9 copy.
And, I believe PSA 8s are less subject to declines in value due to eventual population increases. Collectors will buy 8s because they want a nice copy of the card. They buy 9s because of the scarcity. If a PSA 9 increases from pop 10 to a pop 25, the value will decline. I don't think 8s will suffer similar declines as populations rise. >>
I like this idea. I might consider PSA 9's of some HOFers 76-86. PSA 9 Ripken's are relatively inexpensive and very desirable. Here's what I would do. Go to the National in Chicago this summer and freak out on the cards during the day and go eat steak at Gibsons across the street from the convention center.
I agree if we are discussing what is and will be the rarer item: a 1975 Topps Wax Box or a PSA 9 Brett RC. And I think rarity is the #1 thing those bullish on unopened bring up, and rightfully so. But I would respectfully add that rarity is only one aspect of the discussion.
It's just my opinion, but I would bet the farm that the ripping examples of BBG and Duff are the exception and not the rule, when it comes to what is happening to these more expensive unopened boxes. I agree their supply is fixed, but I stop there-- I do not think their supply is going down at any significant rate, because I believe the number of rippers is few and the number of those keeping them opened is far greater. I don't see collectors routinely spending upwards of a grand to rip a box, because I truly believe anyone buying one knows what the likely outcome is in terms of the quality of cards.
Demand is another part of the discussion, and one that is not nearly as discussed when it comes to unopened as is the fixed supply. Demand for Schmidt and Brett RCs will in my opinion always be greater than demand for the boxes. More collectors want that key RC. More collectors are apprehensive about the uncertainty of unopened versus buying the card you hope to get in the box. And I also think the price of unopened will scare or turn many collectors off when they weigh what they could get in a slab and have no worries. For these reasons-- again when it comes to the safer play, the play that will sell faster and more predictably if need be down the line-- I'd rather spend the OP's hypothetical 25K on key cards than unopened.
Another aspect of unopened that rarely comes to light as compared to the "fixed and dwindling supply" aspect is that there is simply no way to chart the population of unopened material, as compared to cards. So there's so much speculation involved. No one really knows who has what, how many are out there. We do know that if it were being ripped and generating key cards at a rate that would outstrip current demand and bring prices down, we'd see those cards. Duff did not get a Brett or Yount or Ryan or Schmidt 10 from his case, and I bet others seeing that anomalous rip will be even more hesitant to take the leap themselves. Which again brings me back to the belief that while supply is fixed, no doubt, it's just not being nearly as ripped as an unopened bull buyer might think. Because so many others are thinking just like that bull and keeping them unopened. Not knowing what's out there, and knowing that if someone does have a warehouse or storage locker of boxes they will likely be very savvy and dribble them out, helps keep me away (and this is just my opinion) beyond knowing the OC cards that are so likely inside the pack(s).
Lastly, I also readily concede that Steve Hart would say 70s and now 80s supply has been dwindling. But again I'd go a step farther and bet that it is dwindling because guys are buying it thinking and hoping that it will rocket in price as others rip it-- problem is, I believe, everyone buying it is thinking that same thing.
I love rarity and low supply but what I love more-- and collecting of course is a very personal choice-- is a combination of rarity, certainty in what one is getting, and extremely high demand. To me, there might be 5 of something in the world but if 50 people want it, I'd prefer that thing where 100 exist but 100,000 people want it.
I just find that when looking at unopened, so much of the discussion focuses on supply and scarcity, and I agree completely that is what that segment of the hobby has going for it in spades, but there are other factors that mitigate my enthusiasm for spending big on it, namely popularity/demand versus demand for graded key singles, who is really ripping, one guy authenticating who also sells (I have no problem with it whatsoever, but new collectors might find that a conflict of interest and pass on entering the segment), the Jose thing, and the quality of what I'd really have inside the packs.
If down the line one is reselling a high dollar box (most likely to another unopened collector) and there have been no known or publicized rips, then it would stand to reason that fixed supply hasn't shrunk at all. And if someone is asking me to pay more than the last guy paid just on the sheer assumption there are others out there ripping and shrinking the supply, well I'm not parting with my money and paying more than the last sale on that assumption. And pop growth would not be enough to get me to believe those few new PSA 9 cards came from rips. They could just have easily or more likely have come from raw sets or raw lot purchases.
End of the day, because of the current price levels of 70s unopened AND inability to know the population of boxes out there, I just don't see guys paying over a grand to rip-- at least not so many where a seller could justify a huge price increase. I know the sellers will say we are running out, we can't find any, but I think that is true because (A) guys are buying them to hold, so supply is not dwindling and (B) if anyone has a huge stash, they are wisely dribbling it out.
1. This forum has been doing a good job at tearing up BBCE boxes into individual packs, definitely impacting the population of available BBCE-wrapped boxes out there.
2. It seems odd that all of a sudden no one seems to want to part with their 1970s product on eBay or to BBCE, etc. We aren't even seeing unopened boxes offered with crazy BIN prices.
I understand your assumptions about supply and demand for vintage unopened product but as an unopened collector for the past twenty years, I would disagree with your conclusion that product has become tough to find due to it being hoarded. That is partially true bit it is far more extensive than that and market conditions have reflected that. Of course there has also been the possibility that unopened product has risk factors associated with it, just as gem mint cards dowith trimming and sheet cutting, but such is the risk in any collectibles field.
What we are projecting here may or may not come to fruition as no one can ascertain where the market will lead us but if history and present market conditions are any indication, vintage unopened remains a solid area for appreciation.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
or not(at least thats the way I see it). And the population of unopened is dropping, even if not by much.
Several people are ripping this stuff. Its true nobody knows what is actually out there, but it really does
not matter just as long as there isnt a mass dumping of the stuff, as long as its slowly released, it will
be "scarce"". I see that as the only real gamble with unopened, and I cant imagine anybody with a huge
stash just dumping. my 2 cents.
Looking at the healthy prices of unopened lately, a good part of that I think comes from confidence in Hart and his brand. I think it could only benefit that segment of our beloved hobby if somehow it were as easy to buy unslabbed/unopened boxes elsewhere; it would open up the buying and selling. I for one would not buy a high end box off an unknown seller on eBay, not the same way I'd evaluate a scan and buy a slabbed card.
The advent of a website run by someone who would accept high end unslabbed, unopened material on consignment AND authenticate it the way BBCE does would likely create more sales to track and stimulate sales. Even if a random seller has the BBCE shrink wrap, I'd pass. Such a site would get more guys to jump in I'd think.
Then you have a action that has a two fold effect, unopened becomes harder to find and opened becomes easier. Pre 1970's (and earlier, of course) singles wouldn't be changed much.
Did I read 1971 PACKS are worth $700.00 each? To me this indicates that unopened is a "gold mine".
Population of high end 8's and 9's are never going down, ( unless there's some kind of accident with a large collectors cards) and in the case of 70's and newer will certainly go up, if only a little.
Wish I had the $25,000.00 to see if I would be right in the long run!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Great question and some really good opinions here!
Joe
My Sandberg topps basic set
My Sandberg Topps Master set
I have used this analogy about opening 1970s material before...it is like seeing Angelina Jolie with her clothes on, ripping them off and then seeing a naked Hillary Clinton staring at you. I prefer to keep the clothes on and fantasize about Jolie.
Therefore, I suspect that the unopened market is maturing into a more stable entity and thus it is surprising to me that I am even considering this alternative.
Second, I have come to completely discount feigned indignation from a few individuals who look down on 70s collecting because "there is so much product out there" - even given higher levels of unopened we theorize about people who have actually opened this stuff realize that the conversion to high end graded cards is very small. BBG just posted on the "ozzie" thread that he opened more than 200 1979 racks to get 1 PSA 9 Ozzie.
Matt (hammered) brings up an interesting option (8 versus 9) of my option (70s versus 30s through 50s). That is, whether it is better to go 2x12K, 5x5K, 12x2k, 100x250.00.
My one caveat to going "small ball" is that liquidity is always something one should consider even in an age of ebay and auction houses.
I now have so many 1975 minis and the present market is so narrow - I would not be able to sell my sets at anything close to what I paid for many many years. Luckily, for this set I am an absolute filthy hoarder.
Great thoughts! Keep them coming
I'd probably go for a 48 Leaf Graziano and then pour the leftovers into uncataloged foreign cards. I'd also probably have a bit of fun on the BBCE website but the stuff I would be interested in wouldn't cost that much, so, whatevs.
I'll take the value of enjoyment over any potential short- or long-term financial gains.
Seacrest OUT!
<< <i>I can say one thing with the utmost certainty: I wouldn't be buying anything that has much of its value tied up in its "condition rarity." Meaning, I wouldn't spend it on a card (or cards) that are, for the most part, relatively available yet difficult to find in a particular grade. Sign me up for cards that are difficult to find in ANY condition.
I'd probably go for a 48 Leaf Graziano and then pour the leftovers into uncataloged foreign cards. >>
+1 on the strategy and card suggestion, although it will likely leave you with nothing left over.
<< <i>
<< <i>I can say one thing with the utmost certainty: I wouldn't be buying anything that has much of its value tied up in its "condition rarity." Meaning, I wouldn't spend it on a card (or cards) that are, for the most part, relatively available yet difficult to find in a particular grade. Sign me up for cards that are difficult to find in ANY condition.
I'd probably go for a 48 Leaf Graziano and then pour the leftovers into uncataloged foreign cards. >>
+1 on the strategy and card suggestion, although it will likely leave you with nothing left over. >>
You might be right. Although I'd be happy with an AUTH or low-grade example.
I vote the Ruth rookie still, or a 1952 Mantle
Packs are so fragile to keep and I do feel they have a celling price. Very fun part of the hobby for sure.
Also I think the suply is out there, And right now we are seeing Steve have less at this moment. But I think it might be because people think the product is going up up and up, so they are not selling at this time. Its out there and it will hit the market.
As to the unopened debate. I know that personally the price point on unopened has made it unpalatable to rip 70s wax. I do think the majority of sales are to hoarders as MattyC suspects (heck most of the group "rips" result in a more unopened pack submissions to PSA than opened packs). There is still quite a bit of 70s unopened out there but people are just a lot more educated on its value now. The idea of an alternate site with authenticated unopened is very intriguing however if Steve could be wrong on all of those Jose packs who knows what else authenticators might be wrong about. For me it has gotten to the point where I am only interested in packs from a full box for any older wax. There is simply too much fraud and sadly that will only increase as unopened gets more valuable.
As to the 25k to spend I would simply buy cards that made me happy. Whether it was players I loved to watch growing up, stars from a bygone era or young guns that I thought might turn into HOFers. I do not consider cards an investment and accept that I will lose 25-50% on any graded cards I buy and 90% on any unopened I buy and rip. I have SEP IRAs, 401ks and mutual funds for my investments not sports cards. Cards are simply a hobby and whether I spend 100k in a year or 10k I try to make sure I enjoy it. For instance I put together a near complete self submitted pack pulled PSA 9 1986 Fleer basketball set (I think I was at 113 cards and 9 stickers). I spent over 30k on unopened 86 fleer packs, and who knows how much on PSA submissions, trying to build that set. I have never regretted buying those packs, I was just sad that PSA screwed me on my Brady Contenders rookie sub enough that I gave up submitting cards and thus ended my quest. I have since consigned off that 86 Fleer set but to me building it and ripping those packs was worth every penny I spent. I can still remember the joy of pulling a perfectly centered Jordan RC from a pack I bought off of the baseball card kid years ago during a particularly trying time. For me the hobby is about rekindling that joy not tracking the value of my collection in VCP. Obviously everyone is different but I will sell off every card I own the day I start worrying about how much my collection has appreciated or depreciated in value.
Robb
But if it's only sportscards, then buy what you like, and enjoy.
If you only want to make money, then think rare pre-1950's.
a.) You have collectors that like to collect un-opened. Some are long time collectors and some are new collectors
b.) You have speculators who are buying un-opened trying to make a buck. Not un-like the late 80's/early 90's speculators or high end speculators
c.) You have collectors that are busting un-opened as quick as they can trying to find the low pop 9's and 10's, i.e. BBG and his 79 Topps tower of glory (just messing with you Paul
d.) you have collectors who just loving bust un-opened because it is fun to do
e.) you have the old time collectors who have un-opened that purchased over the last 20 to 30 years and haven't gotten around to selling yet
So, what is the true status of un-opened???????? I don't know....LOL. I truly believe un-opened will always be in demand. I don't see the prices going back down to where it was 2 years ago because supply will always diminish due to product being opened. Will the prices continue to rise the %'s it has over the last two years. I don't know. I believe the PSA set registry has a something to do with this.
As far as what I would spend $25K on? I would buy some un-opened. I would also look at nicely centered mid-grade T206 Cobbs, 33 Goudey Ruths and 52 Topps Mantle. I think these cards will always appreciate. I would also look at examples in PSA 2-4 grades for these cards. High grade examples of these cards only have a small buyer pool to choose from but lower grade examples have a much wider audience.
Just my $.02 cents.
Mark
T206 Set - 300/524
<< <i>High-grade pops can only go up. Unopened pops can only go down. >>
I would have to disagree with "high grade pops can only go up" from the extent that they are low pop. Now, high grade pops of iconic/popular cards probably will hold their own with increased poppage.
Mark
T206 Set - 300/524
<< <i>
<< <i>High-grade pops can only go up. Unopened pops can only go down. >>
I would have to disagree with "high grade pops can only go up" from the extent that they are low pop. Now, high grade pops of iconic/popular cards probably will hold their own with increased poppage.
Mark >>
Mark, I agree with your statement but also I'm assuming what Reggie means by "pop" is the number of unopened packs vs graded cards in a specific grade.
Unopened is certainly a specialized market and not for everyone. Resealed packs, like sheet cut and trimmed or doctored cards, have always been part of the hobby. As long as there is money to be made, dishonest people will be attracted to that aspect of the hobby, like any industry where fabrication can equate to ill-gotten gains. Some of the resealers are more skilled than others but eventually they all get exposed, sooner or later. As an unopened collector who has also opened more than his fair share on 70s unopened packs (mostly wax and racks), I can state with certainty that the vast majority of product out there, if acquired from a reputable source, is authentic.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
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<< <i>High-grade pops can only go up. Unopened pops can only go down. >>
I would have to disagree with "high grade pops can only go up" from the extent that they are low pop. Now, high grade pops of iconic/popular cards probably will hold their own with increased poppage.
Mark >>
Mark, I agree with your statement but also I'm assuming what Reggie means by "pop" is the number of unopened packs vs graded cards in a specific grade. >>
Yeah, I probably didn't read it correctly.
Mark
T206 Set - 300/524
Id buy 6 acres of prime land in the Puna district on the Big Island of Hawaii then grow a ton (literally) of pakalolo in the first 6 months then sell it to rich kids at SD State, then buy that trimmed PSA-8 T206 Honus Wagner and break it out of that overhyped companies slab and then get Derick Jeter the Great to autograph it...
<< <i>Easy...
Id buy 6 acres of prime land in the Puna district on the Big Island of Hawaii then grow a ton (literally) of pakalolo in the first 6 months then sell it to rich kids at SD State, then buy that trimmed PSA-8 T206 Honus Wagner and break it out of that overhyped companies slab and then get Derick Jeter the Great to autograph it... >>
Nice.
I can't think of anything more effective to protest the inaccurate slabbing of a baseball card than illegally selling drugs to young people.
Cool thread