physical demand and premiums, especially ASEs, continues to rise as prices drop
This is it in a nutshell. All Fridays drop in Spot (paper) means is the premiums will increase. No one in their right mind would sell for anywhere near close to Spot value now, unless they were desperate for cash.
To forgive is to free a prisoner, and to discover that prisoner was you.
<< <i>$32 has been the floor for ASE at one of my lcs for a few weeks. >>
What do they pay for an ASE that people bring in to sell to them? Is that premium maintained or growing (two-way), or do they drop the buy price lower and maintain the sell price high (since the faithful will keep on stackin and pay it anyway?)
<< <i>$32 has been the floor for ASE at one of my lcs for a few weeks. >>
What do they pay for an ASE that people bring in to sell to them? Is that premium maintained or growing (two-way), or do they drop the buy price lower and maintain the sell price high (since the faithful will keep on stackin and pay it anyway?) >>
buy low, sell high. after all, they are businessmen
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
I just call em like I see em derryb. Your advice and supporting argument sounds just like a stockbroker in 2000. Believe me, I was a stockbroker in 2000.
$32 has been the floor for ASE at one of my lcs for a few weeks.
Dollar back of melt is the first offer usually on ASE.
stopped by two local shops yesterday afternoon. AGE $100 over spot ASE $4 over and 90% 22.5x face at one. the other shop had (7) 1/10 AGE and 20 silver rounds that I bought for $1660. They too had some ASE for $4 over as well.
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<< <i>I just call em like I see em derryb. Your advice and supporting argument sounds just like a stockbroker in 2000. Believe me, I was a stockbroker in 2000.
$32 has been the floor for ASE at one of my lcs for a few weeks.
Dollar back of melt is the first offer usually on ASE.
A $6 spread!!!! Fool is too kind a word. >>
First offer. And there's never more than 10 in house, so the market is thin. Never paid more than 3 over there myself.
<< <i>I just call em like I see em derryb. Your advice and supporting argument sounds just like a stockbroker in 2000. Believe me, I was a stockbroker in 2000.
$32 has been the floor for ASE at one of my lcs for a few weeks.
Dollar back of melt is the first offer usually on ASE.
A $6 spread!!!! Fool is too kind a word. >>
First offer. And there's never more than 10 in house, so the market is thin. Never paid more than 3 over there myself. >>
As the market stabilized, the spreads will fall. The buck or 2 norm will return. CERTAINLY no need to rush out today to clean out the dealers stock, unless you want to do him a favor.
<< <i>I just call em like I see em derryb. Your advice and supporting argument sounds just like a stockbroker in 2000. Believe me, I was a stockbroker in 2000. >>
just add the assumptions about me to the poor vision list. A stockbroker background explains the continuous, negative position on metals.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
There's already talk of physical shortages. Why would shortages appear when the price has crashed? Obviously, either the shortages aren't real - or the pricing isn't real. It has to be one or the other, and I don't think we will have to wait very long in order to find out which is the case. Next week ought to be interesting.
I don't expect people who are invested in stocks & bonds to be anything but negative on precious metals. They aren't polar opposites, but they are sold that way by the media and by Wall Street. Anyone who is depending on a 401K or an IRA with stocks & bonds is pretty much depending on Bernanke to keep the hope alive, even though the earnings aren't being created by actual efficiencies, new product innovations or market expansions - only by monetary expansion. This is especially daunting when huge segments of industry have been dismantled and reassembled overseas. It leaves retirees totally dependent and it won't be pretty in the end.
Competing currency devaluations isn't an indefinite game of hot potato. There is an end to it. I wouldn't suggest being the last bag holder when the stock market starts demanding performance instead of window dressing.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>I just call em like I see em derryb. Your advice and supporting argument sounds just like a stockbroker in 2000. Believe me, I was a stockbroker in 2000. >>
just add the assumptions about me to the poor vision list. A stockbroker background explains the continuous, negative position on metals. >>
Wrong again derryb. I've mentioned many times on this board over the years that I was recommending pm's and mining stocks to my clients in 2000.
My experiences in dealing with 1000s of clients has developed a keen sense of market psychology. I know how markets work and I now how people respond. I find the pm market fascinating as it is extremely emotional.
And my with my poor vision I wrote months ago that the hype and rhetoric and angst was about to increase. Right now I see people about to be set back many years in there investment goals.
I'm not negative on metals. But I am negative on the hype and rhetoric. And I am/was negative on the relative values of pm's. Another 20% lower and I might just become a stacker.
anyone who is depending on a 401K or an IRA with stocks & bonds is pretty much depending on Bernanke
Don't you mean anyone with pms is depending on Bernanke . There are millions of words on this board which say this.
even though the earnings aren't being created by actual efficiencies, new product innovations or market expansions
Say what? Corporations got rid of a lot of dead weight through workforce reduction in the last boom that saw overemployment. Apple and its smartphone competitors have made workers more efficient. Bernanke did lower interest rates which allowed companies to refinance their debt. And this has made corporate America stronger. American automakers are expanding exponentially in Asia.
even though the earnings aren't being created by actual efficiencies, new product innovations or market expansions
Say what? Corporations got rid of a lot of dead weight through workforce reduction in the last boom that saw overemployment. Apple and its smartphone competitors have made workers more efficient. Bernanke did lower interest rates which allowed companies to refinance their debt. And this has made corporate America stronger. American automakers are expanding exponentially in Asia.
<< <i>Derryb, the world is not dependent on Bernanke. Does he grow corn, raise cattle, make antibiotics, produce electricity?
Stop with the sensationalism. >>
Just as with investment decisions, business decisions, including those of farmers and producers, are dependent upon how Bernanke's FED policy affects interest rates, money supply and inflation/deflation. I'm not saying they are dependent on the FED for money - I am saying the FED affects how they do or do not conduct their business. Also, appears the FED is quarterbacking decisions made by other western central banks which means the FED has an affect on the world economic stage.
<< <i>Bernanke did lower interest rates which allowed companies to refinance their debt. And this has made corporate America stronger. American automakers are expanding exponentially in Asia. >>
A perfect example of what I am saying.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
If we haven't hit rock bottom, I think we are at least very close. Of course that could just be wishful thinking on my part.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>If we haven't hit rock bottom, I think we are at least very close. Of course that could just be wishful thinking on my part. >>
Believe me, I'd like it to go up as well. However, I have a gut feeling it will drop to $18/oz with the equity market's momentum >>
I agree with you.
Yesterday I was thinking about PMs. What I though was that PMs are positioning themselves for the next leg up (which I expect to be big). I see these bottoms: Ag=$18, Au=$1200, Pt=$1300. I also couldn't figure out why Pd is still so high. My idea is that it is the poor child, never considered as really "precious" (see coins and bars made in Pd against all the others) and it is disconnected from the others.
Disclaimer: These opinions are based on gut feelings, no charts or study. I am one of the worst investor in the world and never timed any market (with rare exceptions, to confirm the rule).
The member formerly known as Ciccio / Posts: 1453 / Joined: Apr 2009
For everyone that is stacking silver/gold, isn't this a good thing? It will surely go back up again at some point. Having it drop to $10 or $15 will enable you to purchase more, correct?
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<< <i>For everyone that is stacking silver/gold, isn't this a good thing? It will surely go back up again at some point. Having it drop to $10 or $15 will enable you to purchase more, correct? >>
If you consider buying at $35 and having it go to $15 a good thing, well then, you have my condolences.
<< <i> It will surely go back up again at some point. >>
Yes... in today's economy, almost every thing rises over time. You need to ask yourself, is there a better way to invest your "fiat" dollars? I'm taking a pause from PM's and going back to my roots....modern coins with potential price appreciation.
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
<< <i>For everyone that is stacking silver/gold, isn't this a good thing? It will surely go back up again at some point. Having it drop to $10 or $15 will enable you to purchase more, correct? >>
If you consider buying at $35 and having it go to $15 a good thing, well then, you have my condolences. >>
No, it sounds like you have MY condolences for buying at $35
Currency Wants: Any note with serial number 00000731
<< <i>For everyone that is stacking silver/gold, isn't this a good thing? It will surely go back up again at some point. Having it drop to $10 or $15 will enable you to purchase more, correct? >>
You're referring to dollar-cost averaging. You buy some equity at $10 dollars, it drops to $5, so you buy 2 more units at the previous amount ($10), and if it rises back up to some point, you would have made a profit and eased your previous loss. If the equity rose back to $8, your stash that you spent $20 on is now worth $24, for a 20% return.
The problems with cost averaging: (1) You have to assume that the price of the equity will sink low but eventually rise back up to some point (doesn't have to be original point). This assumption is dangerous and not always the case. Too many investors have historically lost billions on this assumption. (2) Suppose that the price of the equity will indeed rise back up- but you're not certain when. Can you keep your money tied up that long in a security? What are the opportunity costs of waiting so Ag goes back up and you can sell? (3) Do you have enough money to cost average? It can get really expensive, depending on how volatile the market is.
I just picked up 11 Year of the Snake 10oz bars from Goldmart. $19.95 an ounce + 1.09 over spot. Can't beat that with a stick. $2,330.46 delivered to my door.
<< <i>Bought a monster box. Sold it two days later. Bought another monster box. Didn't sell 2 days later. Now I can buy another box and save over a grand.
But I have to ask myself : " WHY ? " To buy something that weighs so much, on the bet that it will go up ? " A man's casket only has six handles.
Rock bottom could go to $10. It stayed between five and ten for a quarter century if my memory serves me. Divestiture is okay, but balance is better. >>
As more gold moves west to east, control of price will soon follow. The east has no intention of keeping price down - why would they be buying?
Also, watch what the FED does, not what they say. Talk of "tapering" is only to test the waters of market reaction. The markets are responding - there will be no tapering.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
<< <i>Now sporting an 18 handle. Yikes, how much further can rock bottom be? >>
I said it would go to $18 and I still stand by it. Word on the trading floor is that if silver dips below $17, you're not going to see $21/oz for at least a decade. Don't ask me to rationalize it, for it sounds speculative, but that's the rumor I'm hearing.
Comments
This is it in a nutshell. All Fridays drop in Spot (paper) means is the premiums will increase. No one in their right mind would sell for anywhere near close to Spot value now, unless they were desperate for cash.
<< <i>$32 has been the floor for ASE at one of my lcs for a few weeks. >>
What do they pay for an ASE that people bring in to sell to them? Is that premium maintained or growing (two-way), or do they drop the buy price lower and maintain the sell price high (since the faithful will keep on stackin and pay it anyway?)
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>
<< <i>$32 has been the floor for ASE at one of my lcs for a few weeks. >>
What do they pay for an ASE that people bring in to sell to them? Is that premium maintained or growing (two-way), or do they drop the buy price lower and maintain the sell price high (since the faithful will keep on stackin and pay it anyway?) >>
buy low, sell high. after all, they are businessmen
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
$32 has been the floor for ASE at one of my lcs for a few weeks.
Dollar back of melt is the first offer usually on ASE.
A $6 spread!!!! Fool is too kind a word.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
the other shop had (7) 1/10 AGE and 20 silver rounds that I bought for $1660. They too had some ASE for $4 over as well.
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<< <i>I just call em like I see em derryb. Your advice and supporting argument sounds just like a stockbroker in 2000. Believe me, I was a stockbroker in 2000.
$32 has been the floor for ASE at one of my lcs for a few weeks.
Dollar back of melt is the first offer usually on ASE.
A $6 spread!!!! Fool is too kind a word. >>
First offer. And there's never more than 10 in house, so the market is thin. Never paid more than 3 over there myself.
<< <i>
<< <i>I just call em like I see em derryb. Your advice and supporting argument sounds just like a stockbroker in 2000. Believe me, I was a stockbroker in 2000.
$32 has been the floor for ASE at one of my lcs for a few weeks.
Dollar back of melt is the first offer usually on ASE.
A $6 spread!!!! Fool is too kind a word. >>
First offer. And there's never more than 10 in house, so the market is thin. Never paid more than 3 over there myself. >>
As the market stabilized, the spreads will fall. The buck or 2 norm will return. CERTAINLY no need to rush out today to clean out the dealers stock, unless you want to do him a favor.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I just call em like I see em derryb. Your advice and supporting argument sounds just like a stockbroker in 2000. Believe me, I was a stockbroker in 2000. >>
just add the assumptions about me to the poor vision list. A stockbroker background explains the continuous, negative position on metals.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
I don't expect people who are invested in stocks & bonds to be anything but negative on precious metals. They aren't polar opposites, but they are sold that way by the media and by Wall Street. Anyone who is depending on a 401K or an IRA with stocks & bonds is pretty much depending on Bernanke to keep the hope alive, even though the earnings aren't being created by actual efficiencies, new product innovations or market expansions - only by monetary expansion. This is especially daunting when huge segments of industry have been dismantled and reassembled overseas. It leaves retirees totally dependent and it won't be pretty in the end.
Competing currency devaluations isn't an indefinite game of hot potato. There is an end to it. I wouldn't suggest being the last bag holder when the stock market starts demanding performance instead of window dressing.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
<< <i>I just call em like I see em derryb. Your advice and supporting argument sounds just like a stockbroker in 2000. Believe me, I was a stockbroker in 2000. >>
just add the assumptions about me to the poor vision list. A stockbroker background explains the continuous, negative position on metals. >>
Wrong again derryb. I've mentioned many times on this board over the years that I was recommending pm's and mining stocks to my clients in 2000.
My experiences in dealing with 1000s of clients has developed a keen sense of market psychology. I know how markets work and I now how people respond. I find the pm market fascinating as it is extremely emotional.
And my with my poor vision I wrote months ago that the hype and rhetoric and angst was about to increase. Right now I see people about to be set back many years in there investment goals.
I'm not negative on metals. But I am negative on the hype and rhetoric. And I am/was negative on the relative values of pm's. Another 20% lower and I might just become a stacker.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Don't you mean anyone with pms is depending on Bernanke . There are millions of words on this board which say this.
even though the earnings aren't being created by actual efficiencies, new product innovations or market expansions
Say what? Corporations got rid of a lot of dead weight through workforce reduction in the last boom that saw overemployment. Apple and its smartphone competitors have made workers more efficient. Bernanke did lower interest rates which allowed companies to refinance their debt. And this has made corporate America stronger. American automakers are expanding exponentially in Asia.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
<< <i>the whole world is depending on Bernanke, one way or another. >>
Seriously? Holy Moly!
isn't "Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke" an anagram of "Find Claims Have Merit Bad Bankers"? or " Bad Fed Bankers, Lets Make Serve in Chains!"
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Derryb, the world is not dependent on Bernanke. Does he grow corn, raise cattle, make antibiotics, produce electricity?
Stop with the sensationalism.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
even though the earnings aren't being created by actual efficiencies, new product innovations or market expansions
Say what? Corporations got rid of a lot of dead weight through workforce reduction in the last boom that saw overemployment. Apple and its smartphone competitors have made workers more efficient. Bernanke did lower interest rates which allowed companies to refinance their debt. And this has made corporate America stronger. American automakers are expanding exponentially in Asia.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>Derryb, the world is not dependent on Bernanke. Does he grow corn, raise cattle, make antibiotics, produce electricity?
Stop with the sensationalism. >>
Just as with investment decisions, business decisions, including those of farmers and producers, are dependent upon how Bernanke's FED policy affects interest rates, money supply and inflation/deflation. I'm not saying they are dependent on the FED for money - I am saying the FED affects how they do or do not conduct their business. Also, appears the FED is quarterbacking decisions made by other western central banks which means the FED has an affect on the world economic stage.
<< <i>Bernanke did lower interest rates which allowed companies to refinance their debt. And this has made corporate America stronger. American automakers are expanding exponentially in Asia. >>
A perfect example of what I am saying.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
<< <i>
<< <i>haters be hatin'
and stackers be stackin'. lol. >>
and down another $6.00 per oz since you made that comment on April 2d,
<< <i>I think the bottom has hit the rock. >>
I speculate that we haven't hit rock bottom yet.
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Woohoo!!
I love catching falling knives.
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i><< physical silver. >>
<< <i>If we haven't hit rock bottom, I think we are at least very close. Of course that could just be wishful thinking on my part. >>
Believe me, I'd like it to go up as well. However, I have a gut feeling it will drop to $18/oz with the equity market's momentum
Interests:
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<< <i>
<< <i>If we haven't hit rock bottom, I think we are at least very close. Of course that could just be wishful thinking on my part. >>
Believe me, I'd like it to go up as well. However, I have a gut feeling it will drop to $18/oz with the equity market's momentum
I agree with you.
Yesterday I was thinking about PMs. What I though was that PMs are positioning themselves for the next leg up (which I expect to be big).
I see these bottoms: Ag=$18, Au=$1200, Pt=$1300. I also couldn't figure out why Pd is still so high.
My idea is that it is the poor child, never considered as really "precious" (see coins and bars made in Pd against all the others) and it is disconnected from the others.
Disclaimer: These opinions are based on gut feelings, no charts or study. I am one of the worst investor in the world and never timed any market (with rare exceptions, to confirm the rule).
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Bought another 400 ounces today.
Woohoo!!
I love catching falling knives.
Great job .... it takes years of brainwashing to become an expert at it
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<< <i>For everyone that is stacking silver/gold, isn't this a good thing? It will surely go back up again at some point. Having it drop to $10 or $15 will enable you to purchase more, correct? >>
If you consider buying at $35 and having it go to $15 a good thing, well then, you have my condolences.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i> It will surely go back up again at some point. >>
Yes... in today's economy, almost every thing rises over time. You need to ask yourself, is there a better way to invest your "fiat" dollars? I'm taking a pause from PM's and going back to my roots....modern coins with potential price appreciation.
<< <i>
<< <i>For everyone that is stacking silver/gold, isn't this a good thing? It will surely go back up again at some point. Having it drop to $10 or $15 will enable you to purchase more, correct? >>
If you consider buying at $35 and having it go to $15 a good thing, well then, you have my condolences. >>
No, it sounds like you have MY condolences for buying at $35
Currency Wants: Any note with serial number 00000731
Not sure how much "lower" it can go now, as of 12:12 AM Silver spot was listed as $20.80 !!!
Blessings
<< <i>For everyone that is stacking silver/gold, isn't this a good thing? It will surely go back up again at some point. Having it drop to $10 or $15 will enable you to purchase more, correct? >>
You're referring to dollar-cost averaging. You buy some equity at $10 dollars, it drops to $5, so you buy 2 more units at the previous amount ($10), and if it rises back up to some point, you would have made a profit and eased your previous loss. If the equity rose back to $8, your stash that you spent $20 on is now worth $24, for a 20% return.
The problems with cost averaging:
(1) You have to assume that the price of the equity will sink low but eventually rise back up to some point (doesn't have to be original point). This assumption is dangerous and not always the case. Too many investors have historically lost billions on this assumption.
(2) Suppose that the price of the equity will indeed rise back up- but you're not certain when. Can you keep your money tied up that long in a security? What are the opportunity costs of waiting so Ag goes back up and you can sell?
(3) Do you have enough money to cost average? It can get really expensive, depending on how volatile the market is.
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SeaEagleCoins: 11/14/54-4/5/12. Miss you Larry!
<< <i>Not sure how much "lower" it can go now, as of 12:12 AM Silver spot was listed as $20.80 !!!
Blessings >>
How about $19.90 as I type ....
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But I have to ask myself : " WHY ? " To buy something that weighs so much, on the bet that it will go up ? "
A man's casket only has six handles.
Rock bottom could go to $10. It stayed between five and ten for a quarter century if my memory serves me. Divestiture is okay, but balance is better.
<< <i>Bought a monster box. Sold it two days later. Bought another monster box. Didn't sell 2 days later. Now I can buy another box and save over a grand.
But I have to ask myself : " WHY ? " To buy something that weighs so much, on the bet that it will go up ? "
A man's casket only has six handles.
Rock bottom could go to $10. It stayed between five and ten for a quarter century if my memory serves me. Divestiture is okay, but balance is better. >>
It'll go up eventually. It always does.
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I mentioned the concept of time regarding investing a few weeks ago. The only thing that happens eventually is death.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>It'll go up eventually. It always does.
I mentioned the concept of time regarding investing a few weeks ago. The only thing that happens eventually is death. >>
+1
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Also, watch what the FED does, not what they say. Talk of "tapering" is only to test the waters of market reaction. The markets are responding - there will be no tapering.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
Unc Kennedy's and Frankies and Washbags. Price is about half of what I sold them
for a couple of years ago.
<< <i>Now sporting an 18 handle. Yikes, how much further can rock bottom be? >>
I said it would go to $18 and I still stand by it. Word on the trading floor is that if silver dips below $17, you're not going to see $21/oz for at least a decade. Don't ask me to rationalize it, for it sounds speculative, but that's the rumor I'm hearing.
Interests:
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Toned Commemoratives