Sentiment on silver = rock bottom.
HonoluluDude
Posts: 2,167 ✭
0
HonoluluDude
Posts: 2,167 ✭
Comments
<< <i>haters be hatin'
and stackers be stackin'. lol.
Hi Ho Silver up up and Away!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Who is "the public"? 99% of U.S. citizens don't know what Ag or SLV even mean.
What, they don't teach chemistry in high school anymore? I'd guess the percentage is much lower. The real joke, is how few numismatists can recall that Ag stands for Argentum
Amat Colligendo Focum
Top 10 • FOR SALE
"Investors are throwing caution to the wind right now… ignoring the basic fundamentals and focusing exclusively on euphoric sentiment."
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Its been this low twice in the last 16 months. After sucking in more fiat the price is still the same. >>
Exactly. And the bullion markets tend to cycle up and down every 8-12 months. What has the price of silver done EVERY time the sentiment has gotten this low the past 12 yrs?
The only thing keeping the price of silver down right now is the record short position held by the large speculators (hedge funds, managed money). This is the very first time in this
12 year old bull market that the large specs are net short silver on the Comex. The big banks, producers/merchants, and swap traders (commercials) have taken the opposite bet.
Seems odd that swap dealers are decidedly to the long side of silver, while they hold the short line on gold.
commitment of traders - positions
<< <i>
<< <i>Its been this low twice in the last 16 months. After sucking in more fiat the price is still the same. >>
Exactly. And the bullion markets tend to cycle up and down every 8-12 months. What has the price of silver done EVERY time the sentiment has gotten this low the past 12 yrs?
The only thing keeping the price of silver down right now is the record short position held by the large speculators (hedge funds, managed money). This is the very first time in this
12 year old bull market that the large specs are net short silver on the Comex. The big banks, producers/merchants, and swap traders (commercials) have taken the opposite bet.
Seems odd that swap dealers are decidedly to the long side of silver, while they hold the short line on gold.
commitment of traders - positions >>
For the simpletons like me...what does this mean in terms of silver and gold prices in the future? Will it continue to go down or go up?
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"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Someday I hope you guys will finally realize that shorting does not suppress prices. >>
correct, and how is selling short a contract deemed to be naked, especially when the buyer is naked also?...
<< <i>think of it as nothing more than dollar insurance. you either believe you will need it or you believe you won't need it. I don't know of any healthy people cancelling their health insurance. Like the dollar, they know they won't always be healthy. >>
Nothing like playing on people's emotions. This is a terrible analogy. A comparison to car insurance would be much more appropriate.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>Someday I hope you guys will finally realize that shorting does not suppress prices. >>
correct, and how is selling short a contract deemed to be naked, especially when the buyer is naked also?... >>
Why should anyone be able to naked short any commodity ? If you want to short silver you should need to actually borrow it or have the trade not go through. Shorting it should tie up the contracts you borrowed.
If you short it and contracts aren't being tied up then aren't you just waving a wand and creating them?
How could a buyer be naked? anyone that buys with intent of taking delivery only needs cash. There is no practical limit to the cash a buy may have( it is created from thin air after all
<< <i>Why should anyone be able to naked short any commodity ? If you want to short silver you should need to actually borrow it or have the trade not go through. Shorting it should tie up the contracts you borrowed.
If you short it and contracts aren't being tied up then aren't you just waving a wand and creating them?
How could a buyer be naked? anyone that buys with intent of taking delivery only needs cash. There is no practical limit to the cash a buy may have( it is created from thin air after all
this is classic misunderstanding of how it all works...
y shouldnt they be allowed to short? that is what makes a market... buyers n sellers...
a buyer only needs cash???... well, so a seller only needs cash...
major misunderstanding is that buyers of contracts actually want silver delivered or any other commodity for that matter...
i posted a link to a youtube vid awhile back, of course no one watched it, but simply showed charts in all commodities over time...
most all were similar, hence if "they r manipulating silver" then all must be manipulated at the same time...
<< <i>think of it as nothing more than dollar insurance. you either believe you will need it or you believe you won't need it. I don't know of any healthy people cancelling their health insurance. Like the dollar, they know they won't always be healthy. >>
I may know one.
If I short 1000 shares of apple then my broker borrows shares and sells them. The shares already exist they don't just conjure them.
Naked shorting a stock implies you shorted it without first borrowing it . That is effectively counterfeiting shares of stock.
How is naked shorting silver contracts different than naked shorting stocks?
<< <i>From a fellow simpleton, I believe silver will go up.
it looks like its on the way back up as well
This is the best question asked on this thread so far. Who is the source of the "public" poll?
Dealers sold them for (avg.) $2900 Canadian $.
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
<< <i>Went to a coin show in Ontario on the weekend and many (if not all) 100 oz silver bars were sold in the first 5 minutes of the show.
Dealers sold them for (avg.) $2900 Canadian $. >>
When Apple dropped from 700 to 500, every share at that price was bought also. But this is millions of shares totaling billions of dollars. How many bars were available and how much money would that represent?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
maybe the most obvious statement said this year here, but I guess it still needed to be said. Thanks derryb for clearing things up
<< <i>I believe his point was that physical demand for silver is as strong as ever regardless of what the paper market is saying. >>
Well, let's make another point: the retail demand for physical coffee and corn in the stores is as strong as ever... even as prices for these commodities trend lower for the past several months
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
<< <i>I believe his point was that physical demand for silver is as strong as ever regardless of what the paper market is saying. >>
Well, let's make another point: the retail demand for physical coffee and corn in the stores is as strong as ever... even as prices for these commodities trend lower for the past several months >>
Lower prices normally stimulate demand. Nothing unique with coffee and corn. Record demand for physical PMs is being partially stimulated by lower prices.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Obviously, something like a novelty collectible silver round with Freedom Girl or Liberty Gal or Justice Wench on it continues to exist indefinitely, even as more and more of them are made every day to meet Demand, and of course they can be profitably manufactured because of the markup (or else they wouldn't do it, would they?)
It's actually very interesting to read some of the commentary on this forum, it echos very strongly the sentiments you could read on certain hot stock message boards in 1999 and 2000:
The "fundamentals remain strong" and "it's a paradigm shift" and "to da moon!" and "buying opportunity" upon pullbacks, and even during extended declines, from the faithful.
And everyone's favorite: This Time It's Different, usually with extended paragraphs of analysis defending the stock, and lots of links to supportive articles
Best wishes to all out there, stay safe
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>
<< <i>I believe his point was that physical demand for silver is as strong as ever regardless of what the paper market is saying. >>
Well, let's make another point: the retail demand for physical coffee and corn in the stores is as strong as ever... even as prices for these commodities trend lower for the past several months >>
Same comment that jmski52 made on silver. There is plenty of paper on the future's exchanges to force various commodities in any direction the banks and hedge funds want to take
them. Does anyone really think there was "real" demand for oil at $149 /barrel in July 2008? Or was that the paper boyz running it up well above physical demand? And then how
about the return trip back to $35/barrel. Was that real demand as well? It's quite clear that the future's markets are pretty useless for setting physical supply and demand. None of us
has any idea what the true physical price is for large quantities of physical gold and silver. I suspect it's far higher than the current paper prices. Ben B. gave the boyz TRILLIONs of
dollars to speculate with and some of that has been utilized on commodity markets the past 5 years. The paper markets in general are becoming less and less useful for price
determination....stock markets included. I guess that's a 21st century "thing."
Went to a coin show in Ontario on the weekend and many (if not all) 100 oz silver bars were sold in the first 5 minutes of the show.
I'm not saying that this means anything at all. Just reporting my experience.
I ordered (25) 100 oz bars direct from one of the major refineries I do business with. I'm not talking Silvertowne or apmex, I'm talking a supplier to comex. I have to get in line for approx 3 wks before they will have the bars. It may not mean anything at all, idk. It's the first time I'm taking my payout in silver instead of cash.
<< <i>I believe his point was that physical demand for silver is as strong as ever regardless of what the paper market is saying. >>
Say what???? So if we forgot about what "paper market is saying", then these dealers could have sold all their 100 oz bars for $3900?
If there are 3 silver bars and they all sold, that tells me nothing to the effect of " physical demand for silver is as strong as ever". Even if there were 100 bars available and they all sold. Whooptydo!!!. Thats only $280,000. And, to counter your point, I would guess that if there were 100 bars available, that not all would have sold. So much for demand strong as ever.
Demand for Apple shares was stronger as ever at $500/share also. That didnt keep the price from falling another 15%.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I believe his point was that physical demand for silver is as strong as ever regardless of what the paper market is saying.
maybe the most obvious statement said this year here, but I guess it still needed to be said. Thanks derryb for clearing things up
No Pieces, this is the most obvious statement....."it echos very strongly the sentiments you could read on certain hot stock message boards in 1999 and 2000:"
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>And everyone's favorite: This Time It's Different, usually with extended paragraphs of analysis defending the stock, and lots of links to supportive articles >>
This time it's the same; keep stacking.
The bull market in metals is not over, it is in a corrective phase, something all healthy bull trends experience. The reason we are seeing a correction is the mis-perception market participants have that the economy is improving. I submit that until the FED releases its hold on interest rates and ends its financing of the US deficit the bull trend in metals will continue, especially in the face of dollar destruction policy decisions. The FED, and smart stackers, know that this cannot be done without very dire consequences. Were it not for currency chaos in europe and Japan, dollar destruction would be more obvious to those who are blindly seeing an improvement in the US economy. The US economy is not improving - the economies of nations used to guage the dollar index are in much worse shape.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Well, I guess One difference is that the softs and energy commodities eventually get consumed;
Obviously, something like a novelty collectible silver round with Freedom Girl or Liberty Gal or Justice Wench on it continues to exist indefinitely, even as more and more of them are made every day to meet Demand, and of course they can be profitably manufactured because of the markup (or else they wouldn't do it, would they?)
It's actually very interesting to read some of the commentary on this forum, it echos very strongly the sentiments you could read on certain hot stock message boards in 1999 and 2000:
The "fundamentals remain strong" and "it's a paradigm shift" and "to da moon!" and "buying opportunity" upon pullbacks, and even during extended declines, from the faithful.
And everyone's favorite: This Time It's Different, usually with extended paragraphs of analysis defending the stock, and lots of links to supportive articles
Best wishes to all out there, stay safe >>
Not getting into a pissing contest but silver gets consumed industrially every day and much of it has been discarded over the centuries especially now as much of it sits in landfills. Also the medical industry is now using it in dressings and bandages which get discarded so I would say that without a doubt SILVER UNLIKE GOLD GETS CONSUMED.
Im going to hear this for the next decade, all the while silver stays in a trading range and we all get older.
Take an ASE out of the stack and take the Mrs to a movie. Get out if the house and enjoy life a little. Get out and enjoy America---while it is still standing.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Text . The US economy is not improving
Im going to hear this for the next decade, all the while silver stays in a trading range and we all get older.
Take an ASE out of the stack and take the Mrs to a movie. Get out if the house and enjoy life a little. Get out and enjoy America---while it is still standing.
I always like reading your messages, its great to have someone with a much different view contribute their thoughts. My question is, when you are proven wrong within the next decade, will you admit it?
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<< <i>Text . The US economy is not improving
Im going to hear this for the next decade, all the while silver stays in a trading range and we all get older.
Take an ASE out of the stack and take the Mrs to a movie. Get out if the house and enjoy life a little. Get out and enjoy America---while it is still standing.
Some of us can afford to both stack PM's and "get out of the house and enjoy life a little." It doesn't have to be an either-or proposition for many of us. And, I sleep better knowing I have some PM's in the SDB. YMMV
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Excellent advice! I'm going to buy some paint and ceiling fans today! Maybe me & my sweetie will stop in at Panera's.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
<< <i>I believe his point was that physical demand for silver is as strong as ever regardless of what the paper market is saying. >>
Well, let's make another point: the retail demand for physical coffee and corn in the stores is as strong as ever... even as prices for these commodities trend lower for the past several months >>
And let's make another point that a can or coffee or corn is still the same price if not more. ZRIP and 85 billion a month can cause a lot of confussion. Enron and Williams should have shown how the paper market can distort the physical market but only for a time.
That's exactly right! There's no real price discovery mechanism at work and the markets aren't working very well, in my opinion. $85 billion a month can buy alot of votes as well. The object, of course is to be 1st in line instead of last in line. That's what political graft is all about.
I knew it would happen.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Correct, usually. But threads like this get more attention than they deserve.
I'll be a buyer of silver someday. It will have its day in the sun again. But I got especially bearish in the last year as I saw more and more newbies "stacking" and the manipulation rhetoric increasing. Market psychology drives my investment decisions.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Don't worry, be happy!
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>physical demand and premiums, especially ASEs, continues to rise as prices drop. >>
Of course. Just like a stock. Option premium inctesses as volatility increases. Volume increases as volatility increases. In no way shape or firm should this be construed as a positive or negative. Its just how markets work.
Interesting that you continue to tell the newbies to stack while you yourself refrain and even go short.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Of course. Just like a stock. Option premium inctesses as volatility increases. Volume increases as volatility increases. In no way shape or firm should this be construed as a positive or negative. Its just how markets work. >>
I find it very positive that physical continues to be held by strong hands. Rising physical premiums in the face of paper price drops is a good indicator of what lies ahead.
<< <i>Interesting that you continue to tell the newbies to stack while you yourself refrain and even go short. >>
Wrong, again. Since you're interested in my trading here's the latest action: I continue to make money in my self-managed brokerage accounts and my IRAs using leveraged silver ETFs (USLV and DSLV). The volatility can be your friend if you let it and I have voiced on many occasions here the value of using the paper market to do this. Sorry if you didn't get the memo. I also continue to stack long term physical (since 2005). I have purchased 2,000 silver eagles this year alone. I also buy and sell gold coins and turn that profit into more physical gold and silver. My paper trades have always been and remain to be funded from initial account deposits, Roth conversions from employer 401Ks and account gains. Any new money that goes into metal goes into physical.
I offer opinion and my point of view on the market and enjoy sharing my hard learned experience with those that want it. It is no more offered as advice (except for the occasional PM motto "keep on stackin") than is your opinion to run from metal. The fact that I have learned to fund my growing stack with buying low and selling high in no way should be assumed as misleading to anyone who reads my views on anything metal.
So, here's my current opinion, unchanged with recent price downturns: The long term fundamentals for metal remain unchanged. The FED balance sheet continues to grow, more and more Americans are in dire straits, the new world order is economically dying, and most importantly no one is fixing it. Until runaway debt is resolved metals will continue to look great. Silver will outperform gold, keep on stackin. Those of us that have been at this a while are looking at a much lower break even spot price than are recent metal converts. This make it easier for us "been around awhile" guys to not sweat recent price drops. We did however experience the stress in 2009 and those of us that held on have not regretted it. My opinion is this will hold true after this correction.
My advice? Read all differing opinions and outlooks and learn to develop your own. It has worked well for me.
My advice to you? Go back to attacking my views and not me.
Disclaimer: I like PMs, particularly silver.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey