Factors of economy?
KUCH
Posts: 1,186
Most of u know I'm not an economist nor a financial wizard but this forum along with some such people I read has increased my knowledge.
What factors/data is analyzed to determine "improvement in the economy"?
Such as growth of GDP, or unemployment rate, or housing starts, or currency strength?
What factors/data is analyzed to determine "improvement in the economy"?
Such as growth of GDP, or unemployment rate, or housing starts, or currency strength?
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shadowstats.com is a good source for the true numbers behind manipulated government data.
I use what I see in the real world to bring me up to date. This includes prices, business closings, foreclosure notices, crime rate and number of people hanging around on the street corner when they should be working.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Specifically, higher taxes and high unemployment rates would not enable a growing economy.
And artificially low rates to boot. Guess they never learn.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
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<< <i>I use what I see in the real world to bring me up to date. This includes prices, business closings, foreclosure notices, crime rate and number of people hanging around on the street corner when they should be working. >>
This is my method as well. I am also friends with a B&M coin shop owner...the quality/quantity of items coming in for sale is a good indicator. >>
<< <i>Most of u know I'm not an economist nor a financial wizard but this forum along with some such people I read has increased my knowledge.
What factors/data is analyzed to determine "improvement in the economy"?
Such as growth of GDP, or unemployment rate, or housing starts, or currency strength?
It's a soup with a base of formulae and stats, seasoned with sociology and politics.
An economist gets to pick this own stats and formulae but his blind cousin gets to put in the seasoning.
If it were as simple as data then econ would be a hard science like chemistry. I know this doesn't help yet it's hard to think that there is just some magic equation that has yet to be developed to accurately explain trends and their amplitudes compared to something else that is also fluid...unless you analyze charts for a living, I guess.
There is no substitute for getting out and looking for yourself. And dont just look in your neighborhood, or even state. Travel the country, or at least your region.
Last August I traveled across the country looking at the crops. As was widely in the media, the corn crop looked weak, but soybeans looked very strong. I wrote about this in September---soybean prices dropped about 20% over the next 2 months when the harvest reports came in.
Do your own footwork. Right now Im not seeing a lot of excess in the economy, so while a slowdown could and can always be expected, it doesnt look to be long and/or prolonged.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
government stats like the unemployment rate.
House values are rising now, that is positive. I believe the Case Shiller Data.
Watch reported auto sales. Either from the manufacturers or watch Auto Nation. (AN)
S&P 500 index is a leading indicator but is being helped by the Fed. Still a positive.
Copper is a good indicator and a negative now, just hit an 8 month low.
Old adage, bull market has a copper roof.
How are restaurants doing around you? Places like Cheesecake Factory and
steak house chains. Around me, they seem busy which is good.
Interest rates are low which is not positive, but they are manipulated by the Fed.
Good luck.
People standing on the corners is good indicator but they don't do that here too much. Another good indicator is permits and building starts because if those are rising or even steady then there is good economic activity but you don't need a newspaper to figure that out, just keep a look out for cranes (not the kind with feathers). There are lots of indicators but you don't have to read a newspaper...just look around.
With so many nice places to live that are growing and developing opportunities, I wonder why folks sit in some dead end stink hole and gripe when they could be living good. Vote with your feet.
I'm suspicious of auto sales , I don't think GM having a great sales quarter means much if they just cram the car lots full but the dealers aren't selling them to people.
little construction in SoCal.
Good time to make money right now if your customer base can pay
their bills on time.
The businesses that survived the last 5 years are "hardened".
10 year recession. Going to be a long slow pull out of it.