Anyone else been priced out of the unopened market
esebille
Posts: 189
For me the prices have gotten to the point where it doesnt make sense to buy unopened versus graded cards. The packs and wax boxes continue to move up but for the most part the underlying cards are flat. For example 89 score boxes at $300, I can buy a PSA 10 Barry Sanders at $170 on EBAY. I bought about 7k worth of wax last year, but it has been awhile since I have made any purchases, wondering if anyone else has pulled back. By the way I only buy to open not to hold the wax for potential appreciation.
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Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
but as an example, Topps baseball for lets say 1988-91 still yields good returns. I can buy a wax box from any of those years
for 8-10 dollars and have a really good shot at pulling at least several $25+ PSA 10 cards. I've pulled a number of 1991 Chipper
Jones PSA 10 that sell on eBay for $70-90, from a box that cost eight bucks.
So I guess it really depends on which boxes we're talking about and I still think there are great opportunities if the wax box is bought
cheaply enough.
DaveB in St.Louis
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>I thought you might feel better if you saw what I was paying for unopened material almost 14 years ago. Enjoy!
>>
Did you get many hits from that ad? I always wondered how effective those ads were at pulling in finds. I'm sure they aren't very effective these days due to the decline in print distribution.
<< <i>Unopened product gets increasingly scarcer but the number of graded cards can only rise in total. At some point, such a dichotomous correlation will result in such a reality. >>
Well said. However... as the number of high-end graded cards rises, the price of those cards will decrease, and so too will the packs that contain those cards. The price of a pack will always be linked (to varying degrees) to the price of the cards inside the packs.
For example, let's say that all 1990 Topps Wax gets busted. We all laugh about the $5 wax boxes and we bust and bust and bust. And then we wake up one day and everyone looks around and Holy Cow! There are only like 5 boxes left on the planet. Meanwhile, there are still really no valuable cards in the set. Do you really think that those remaining boxes of 1990 Topps will be worth a lot, even while the cards inside are not?
Always buying Bobby Cox inserts. PM me.
and keep ripping that vintage boys!
Esquire--love that ad!!
<< <i>Did not get a lot of hits from these. We did better from referrals - still lots of candy guys with huge numbers or cases. They were very happy their cases finally had value after eight or so years. We also did better buying off an antiquated online service called SportsNet. Got out of unopened (and the hobby) in 2000, fortunately. Now it is just fun and a little personal investment. >>
SportsNet! Wow, that takes me back. 1993's 'secret of the industry'...
<< <i>
<< <i>Unopened product gets increasingly scarcer but the number of graded cards can only rise in total. At some point, such a dichotomous correlation will result in such a reality. >>
Well said. However... as the number of high-end graded cards rises, the price of those cards will decrease, and so too will the packs that contain those cards. The price of a pack will always be linked (to varying degrees) to the price of the cards inside the packs.
For example, let's say that all 1990 Topps Wax gets busted. We all laugh about the $5 wax boxes and we bust and bust and bust. And then we wake up one day and everyone looks around and Holy Cow! There are only like 5 boxes left on the planet. Meanwhile, there are still really no valuable cards in the set. Do you really think that those remaining boxes of 1990 Topps will be worth a lot, even while the cards inside are not? >>
Worth a LOT? Well, define "a lot". As they get scarcer, the price could easily rise to $15 to $20 per box simply because people like opening packs - and not because they are chasing PSA 10s . If you only paid $5 for the boxes you were holding, then $15 to $20 per box is a pretty good return. No different if you had paid $200 for a box from the 1970s and it's value rose up to $600 to $800. Again, nice return.....right?
<< <i>
<< <i>
For example, let's say that all 1990 Topps Wax gets busted. We all laugh about the $5 wax boxes and we bust and bust and bust. And then we wake up one day and everyone looks around and Holy Cow! There are only like 5 boxes left on the planet. Meanwhile, there are still really no valuable cards in the set. Do you really think that those remaining boxes of 1990 Topps will be worth a lot, even while the cards inside are not? >>
Well, in this example yes. Only because people will think the last Thomas NNOF and George Bush cards are still out there!
<< <i> The price of a pack will always be linked (to varying degrees) to the price of the cards inside the packs.
For example, let's say that all 1990 Topps Wax gets busted. We all laugh about the $5 wax boxes and we bust and bust and bust. And then we wake up one day and everyone looks around and Holy Cow! There are only like 5 boxes left on the planet. Meanwhile, there are still really no valuable cards in the set. Do you really think that those remaining boxes of 1990 Topps will be worth a lot, even while the cards inside are not? >>
The validity of this statement is easily exemplified by using 1980's Topps football. '81, '84, and '86 command a premium as they are linked to the cards they contain. However, the wild card here is the pack/box collector who buys to have in a collection and is not nearly as concerned with the contents. He'll buy 1983 just to complete his collection. Because of this, I feel there will always be demand for product and as the availability shrinks the price will continue to rise. What I would expect is that at some point this rapid rise in price will reach a plateau and perhaps a little pullback and then from there have a slow ascent. Of course the question now becomes where that plateau is. At least, that's how I see it.
Doug
<< <i>
<< <i> The price of a pack will always be linked (to varying degrees) to the price of the cards inside the packs.
For example, let's say that all 1990 Topps Wax gets busted. We all laugh about the $5 wax boxes and we bust and bust and bust. And then we wake up one day and everyone looks around and Holy Cow! There are only like 5 boxes left on the planet. Meanwhile, there are still really no valuable cards in the set. Do you really think that those remaining boxes of 1990 Topps will be worth a lot, even while the cards inside are not? >>
The validity of this statement is easily exemplified by using 1980's Topps football. '81, '84, and '86 command a premium as they are linked to the cards they contain. However, the wild card here is the pack/box collector who buys to have in a collection and is not nearly as concerned with the contents. He'll buy 1983 just to complete his collection. Because of this, I feel there will always be demand for product and as the availability shrinks the price will continue to rise. What I would expect is that at some point this rapid rise in price will reach a plateau and perhaps a little pullback and then from there have a slow ascent. Of course the question now becomes where that plateau is. At least, that's how I see it.
Doug >>
That's the counterargument, Doug. I hear ya. Can you think of any other historical parallel to the idea of collecting one thing that is linked to a separate class of collectibles? I can't think of one, so I don't have anything to point to to predict where pack prices will end up.
I can think of a somewhat similar scenario that I think supports my "price linkage" argument. I've always been a collector of tickets and ticket stubs, well before that went mainstream and PSA started slabbing them. I have tickets used and unused to most of Hank Aaron's milestone games, including dozens to the game where he broke the HR record at the old Fulton County Stadium. It can be said, and I've always believed, that those tickets and stubs were important, but they were mostly important due to the magnitude of THAT game. Here's the funny thing- When Barry Bonds broke Hank Aaron's record, you wouldn't believe the supply of memorabilia to that game that showed up on Ebay the next year and tickets/stubs could be bought for significantly less money. The price of the ticket stub was linked to the importance of the game. You can't separate the two. They are linked. The ticket itself holds little to no value apart from the significance of the game. That is the same way I feel about packs and cards. As much as we may want to try and make them separate, they cannot be separate. The pack prices will always be either anchored or buoyed by whats inside, the cards. Over the long run, as card prices rise or fall, so too will the packs.
Always buying Bobby Cox inserts. PM me.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
These are not valuable cards to some people, and who knows if some of these prices will hold.
But for my $8 on a 1990 wax box I could possibly generate several hundred dollars if I'm lucky. If not,
then I still have probably $50 in graded cards from that box. I'm talking PSA 10 here so the eye
of the submitter has to be really good to do this.
I'm doing great with the Topps 1988-91 junk wax baseball.
So everybody -- please don't buy them. Keep the supply high and price low so I can keep ripping!
DaveB in St.Louis
true vintage wax (i.e. old-old through early 80's) is a different category of unopened - price is much more on the scarcity of the pack as opposed to the cards you may pull from a 400 rack pack or 300 graded wax pack).
<< <i>we are just talking 80's'90's wax here, right?
true vintage wax (i.e. old-old through early 80's) is a different category of unopened - price is much more on the scarcity of the pack as opposed to the cards you may pull from a 400 rack pack or 300 graded wax pack). >>
+1
I never buy older unopened product with the thought of grading the contents of the pack. My guess is people that buy unopened packs for stuff to open and submit to Psa compete with those that
want to jut put the stuff away for safe keeping.
aconte
<< <i>
My guess is people that buy unopened packs for stuff to open and submit to Psa compete with those that want to jut put the stuff away for safe keeping. aconte >>
I agree that they are competing now, but I'd argue that's another factor that will keep pack prices in check over the long-term. As the prices of packs exceeds the value of what's inside, the pack "busters" will recognize this and exit the market, and further serve to keep pack prices in line with its contents.
Always buying Bobby Cox inserts. PM me.
<< <i>
<< <i>we are just talking 80's'90's wax here, right?
true vintage wax (i.e. old-old through early 80's) is a different category of unopened - price is much more on the scarcity of the pack as opposed to the cards you may pull from a 400 rack pack or 300 graded wax pack). >>
+1
I never buy older unopened product with the thought of grading the contents of the pack. My guess is people that buy unopened packs for stuff to open and submit to Psa compete with those that
want to jut put the stuff away for safe keeping.
aconte >>
+1
I think we all agree that one reason late 80s junk wax is still so plentiful is that people aren't often buying it to keep as unopened.
This stuff is made for ripping. I'm not an unopened guy myself, and I have no intention of competing on wax box prices with
those that are.
And for me it's all about the risk/reward ratio. I'm not gonna buy a box for $300 with only a chance at getting a PSA 10 Sanders,
although 1989 Score tends to grade well due to superior card production techniques. But I'd rather spend $8 with a shot
at a $100 or $70 card, and possibly several $30-50 cards to boot. If enough of these get graded the price will eventually drop, but I've been waiting several years to see an across the board drop and haven't seen it yet. The high end here and there has been adjusted lower on some cards.
DaveB in St.Louis
But case prices are up in the $1500-$2000 range. Some people may feel this is a lot, but compared to new stuff, its nearly similar in price. Climbing up through the years of 84 and 85, we have a change in demand based on company where Donruss is king of 84. It might be debated the true rarity of unopened boxes. These are priced fairly high for what you get. In some way, a box is the cost of a Mattingly PSA 10, which is what you would be paying for. A 1984 Topps box, however, is pretty reasonable, but not as popular. The 85 Topps is the one to get in 85, and between $75-100, it is not a bad investment for the box which has the inclusion of the McGwire rookie in addition to Clemens and Pucket. It's 1986 that suddenly becomes over produced with a poor rookie crop (at least in the base set). They are relatively cheap. Two 84 Donruss wax boxes can get you a sealed case of 86 Topps Wax (20 boxes).
But as I pay attention to sales and inventory of various companies, it seems there are slowly rising prices and higher demand for this stuff mostly due to its affordability. They are cheaper than modern boxes. For $15, you can open a 1987 Topps and get Bonds, Clark, and Larkin rookies among many other HOF'ers and potential HOF'ers. Same with Donruss (which yields a Maddux) and Fleer for a few more bucks. Modern Topps are $50 and up depending on the series, style and shape of the box.
So in sum, I think as some of these guys get a few more nods into the Hall in the next coming years, you are going to start seeing higher demand, more submissions, and rising prices, which will ultimately make unopened material a little more scarcer (whether this will hurt the graded market is tough to say).
It's innate. To varying degrees, we all want what we once had or never had. Especially as time passes on and it all starts to become a mirage. If that brief display last month with the '76 c-packs is not a clear indication, I don't know what is.
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
<< <i>So in sum, I think as some of these guys get a few more nods into the Hall in the next coming years, you are going to start seeing higher demand, more submissions, and rising prices, which will ultimately make unopened material a little more scarcer (whether this will hurt the graded market is tough to say). >>
We'll see how it plays out. 1989 Topps is a good test case. In few more years we may see Biggio, Johnson, Sheffield and Smoltz making an $8 wax box look really inviting. There are ton of those still out there, Kruk Cards was almost giving them away recently at a little over $100 for a wax case. You can get $25 for Johnson and $30 for Biggio on eBAY right now. So if you can pull one PSA 10, after grading you've paid for three wax boxes.
DaveB in St.Louis
<< <i>
<< <i>So in sum, I think as some of these guys get a few more nods into the Hall in the next coming years, you are going to start seeing higher demand, more submissions, and rising prices, which will ultimately make unopened material a little more scarcer (whether this will hurt the graded market is tough to say). >>
We'll see how it plays out. 1989 Topps is a good test case. In few more years we may see Biggio, Johnson, Sheffield and Smoltz making an $8 wax box look really inviting. There are ton of those still out there, Kruk Cards was almost giving them away recently at a little over $100 for a wax case. You can get $25 for Johnson and $30 for Biggio on eBAY right now. So if you can pull one PSA 10, after grading you've paid for three wax boxes. >>
This is true. I would invest in Fleer before Topps though. 1989 has about 100,000 more overall submissions than 1987. However, for 1989, more submissions are from Fleer and Donruss than Topps, and Upper Deck leading the pack at 109,000 submissions. Generally, however, 25-30% of all submissions receive a 10 rating.
<< <i>I would invest in Fleer before Topps though. 1989 has about 100,000 more overall submissions than 1987. However, for 1989, more submissions are from Fleer and Donruss than Topps, and Upper Deck leading the pack at 109,000 submissions. Generally, however, 25-30% of all submissions receive a 10 rating. >>
What is really interesting is the % of submissions for Griffey. Just remove him from the numbers of 1989 sets and then
see what it looks like. It is truly amazing.
I have to think that nearly everyone on the planet that wants one already has one of the several Griffey rookies, but there
could still be increased interest in other HOFers and HOFers to-be from that year.
DaveB in St.Louis
<< <i>it certainly appears as if nostalgic demand is creeping into the next decade now. '80 Topps is literally throwing it into another gear right before our very eyes, and even unopened material from '81 is inching northward (compare and contrast case-fresh '81 box prices from the past couple of group rips to those from '12).
It's innate. To varying degrees, we all want what we once had or never had. Especially as time passes on and it all starts to become a mirage. If that brief display last month with the '76 c-packs is not a clear indication, I don't know what is. >>
Absolutely agree. The 10 year-olds that couldn't afford 1981 Topps boxes are now 42 years old. They have money and they're
ready to spend it if the price is right. And the 34 year-olds that couldn't afford it either can now buy an entire 1989 Topps wax
case for $140 postpaid. The power of nostalgia is one of the strongest.
DaveB in St.Louis
Even unopened 1970s to early 1980s Fleer team sticker boxes have seen a significant increase over the past several years. Even though there are no player cards to chase in those packs, collectors still enjoy the thrill of opening a vintage style pack. And the same should happen in the future with just about any vintage style wax or cello pack from the 1980s.
<< <i> Even if there are a zillion of the raw or graded rookies already out there, and even if prices of these individual cards drop over time, collectors will always enjoy the thrill of opening another box and pulling another rookie of a hall of famer. >>
This is where we disagree. People enjoy the thrill of opening a pack IF there is the potential of opening something in the pack that is of value. People will not pay $x dollars for a box if there are no cards in the set selling for near $x dollars. When cards are worthless, so too are the packs. The two are inextricably linked.
Always buying Bobby Cox inserts. PM me.
<< <i>Even unopened 1970s to early 1980s Fleer team sticker boxes have seen a significant increase over the past several years. Even though there are no player cards to chase in those packs, collectors still enjoy the thrill of opening a vintage style pack. And the same should happen in the future with just about any vintage style wax or cello pack from the 1980s. >>
Agree with you -- it really is fun just busting a 1988 or 1989 wax pack and seeing the Hall of Famers staring out at you.
And if they're rookie cards it's just icing on the cake. We are all kids at heart and the inner child lives on.
DaveB in St.Louis
<< <i>
<< <i>Even unopened 1970s to early 1980s Fleer team sticker boxes have seen a significant increase over the past several years. Even though there are no player cards to chase in those packs, collectors still enjoy the thrill of opening a vintage style pack. And the same should happen in the future with just about any vintage style wax or cello pack from the 1980s. >>
Agree with you -- it really is fun just busting a 1988 or 1989 wax pack and seeing the Hall of Famers staring out at you.
And if they're rookie cards it's just icing on the cake. We are all kids at heart and the inner child lives on. >>
Dave- How much are you willing to pay for thrill of opening a pack of cards from a set where the most expensive card goes unsold at $2.99 on ebay?
Always buying Bobby Cox inserts. PM me.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Even unopened 1970s to early 1980s Fleer team sticker boxes have seen a significant increase over the past several years. Even though there are no player cards to chase in those packs, collectors still enjoy the thrill of opening a vintage style pack. And the same should happen in the future with just about any vintage style wax or cello pack from the 1980s. >>
Agree with you -- it really is fun just busting a 1988 or 1989 wax pack and seeing the Hall of Famers staring out at you.
And if they're rookie cards it's just icing on the cake. We are all kids at heart and the inner child lives on. >>
Dave- How much are you willing to pay for thrill of opening a pack of cards from a set where the most expensive card goes unsold at $2.99 on ebay? >>
If the best card in the set was only worth $2.99 then it would probably not be worth it. But I am not aware of a baseball set in the years that I'm interested in that fits that criteria (1988-1991 primarily). All of those sets have plenty of $20-plus cards.
I have zero interest in ANY cards post 1993 or so. I don't actually own any and if I do it's because I haven't had a chance to throw them in the recycle bin yet.
DaveB in St.Louis
Just picked up another 1958 FB Cello to open come Christmas time
I'll likely buy and rip something expensive at the National too, I'll just have to wait and see what Steve brings. I'd love to rip that 1962 FB pack he has right now.
Scott
<< <i>Rising prices may slow me down, but I'll continue to buy and RIP vintage packs as long as I can!!!!
Just picked up another 1958 FB Cello to open come Christmas time
I'll likely buy and rip something expensive at the National too, I'll just have to wait and see what Steve brings. I'd love to rip that 1962 FB pack he has right now.
Scott >>
Please post this when you do bust it. I busted one a couple of years ago and even though I didn't do good at all on it, it was a blast!!
WTB: PSA 1 - PSA 3 Centered, High Eye Appeal 1950's Mantle
<< <i>myself and a couple people i know enjoy ripping 1990 Pro Set Football Wax. Always a shot at the Lombardi Hologram, zillions of "errors' and zero gilt in throwing away the base! lol >>
SHHHH!!!!
<< <i>myself and a couple people i know enjoy ripping 1990 Pro Set Football Wax. Always a shot at the Lombardi Hologram, zillions of "errors' and zero gilt in throwing away the base! lol >>
Thats how I feel about some of the 90's stuff like 92 Donruss has the Elite cards and a chance for a Ripken auto. And when you are done you can throw them all away. LOL
The prices of the cards from the set in both raw form and graded, the condition of the product and the confirmation it is has not been searched, and the scarcity associated with the issue itself and in sealed form.
If there is no opportunity to get valuable cards the prices will never achieve what they could if there is potentially hidden gold in the packs.
The scarcity of the product can play a major role in the price and obviously the ultimate is when you can combine potentially very valuable cards and difficult product to locate.
I think the advent of pack grading and hoarding of unopened product can drive the prices of the packs to levels that are not substantiated by the odds of winning or at the very least breaking even.
At the end of the day though you need cards that can be pulled from the packs that can have value to maintain interest in the set. I agree with McAdams that if you have essentially garbage in the packs the prices will reflect that over time.
It is no coincidence that packs of the 1986 Fleer sell for the price they do. You have a chance to strike gold in every pack
Supply and demand rule in the end and very little unopened product is immune from this like some of the top cards in the hobby. There is always potentially another box of most product at this time.
This is correct, and at the present time demand far outstrips supply. Steve can't even find vintage unopened product to purchase even on cross-country road trips. By vintage, I mean pre-1980 product. IMO, that is where the scarcity factor kicks in. Early to mid 80s product has been rising also of late, but there is just too much available product for those years to ever be truly defined as "scarce." Anything from mid-70s and earlier (box or case-wise) has become essentially impossible to find for purchase in any kind of quantity and prices continue to rise to reflect that. And for even single packs 1960s and earlier? Forget about it.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>Supply and demand rule in the end
This is correct, and at the present time demand far outstrips supply. Steve can't even find vintage unopened product to purchase even on cross-country road trips. By vintage, I mean pre-1980 product. IMO, that is where the scarcity factor kicks in. Early to mid 80s product has been rising also of late, but there is just too much available product for those years to ever be truly defined as "scarce." Anything from mid-70s and earlier (box or case-wise) has become essentially impossible to find for purchase in any kind of quantity and prices continue to rise to reflect that. And for even single packs 1960s and earlier? Forget about it. >>
In the year since I returned, it seems there are a number of people returning to the business since the early 90's to appreciate the hobby once again, except this time with money in their pocket to recoup their original collections. This alone could bring about a change in 80's products.
I was recently going through some newer Topps stuff and they had an insert set called "Cards Your Mom Threw Out". Now some of these are classic cards. But one of them is a 1987 Topps Don Mattingly All-Star card. I am almost certain my mom threw this card out - if she did not, then I most certainly did. As of now its worth nothing so I dont know why they highlighted this card as something so tragic.
we all collect different things, thats one of the beauties of this hobby of ours.
WTB: PSA 1 - PSA 3 Centered, High Eye Appeal 1950's Mantle
<< <i>
<< <i> Even if there are a zillion of the raw or graded rookies already out there, and even if prices of these individual cards drop over time, collectors will always enjoy the thrill of opening another box and pulling another rookie of a hall of famer. >>
This is where we disagree. People enjoy the thrill of opening a pack IF there is the potential of opening something in the pack that is of value. People will not pay $x dollars for a box if there are no cards in the set selling for near $x dollars. When cards are worthless, so too are the packs. The two are inextricably linked. >>
I would like Mcadams to use his logic to explain why these types of 1970s and 1980s Fleer team stickers/patches boxes consistently sell for what they do. The facts indicate there are MANY reasons why people like old wax boxes....it is not just based on what possible PSA 10 cards could be pulled.
Wax Box
I do not wish to discuss 1988 Score.
Dave
Being on a limited budget, I use the profits to fund my true collecting interest (1968-72 Topps).
So if a Yahoo on eBAY wants to pay $70 for a PSA 10 1990 Topps Ripken, who am I to stop accomodating him?
If I spend $8 on a 1991 Topps box and pull a nice Jones or Ryan that grades PSA 10 then it's a good day.
I don't know how long people on eBAY will keep overpaying for Topps junk wax in PSA 10 but lets just
say that P.T Barnum was spot on.
DaveB in St.Louis
<< <i>
I would like Mcadams to use his logic to explain why these types of 1970s and 1980s Fleer team stickers/patches boxes consistently sell for what they do. The facts indicate there are MANY reasons why people like old wax boxes....it is not just based on what possible PSA 10 cards could be pulled.
Wax Box >>
Because someone thinks there are either $68 worth of raw cards in the box, or they think that there are $68 of graded cards in the box + cost of grading fees.
Always buying Bobby Cox inserts. PM me.