LOL....Please....nice try......you know as well as I do that nobody thinks they will get their money back on those team patches or stickers once the packs are open. And people are not sending those off to PSA. If someone wanted to have or invest on what was inside, they could buy them in sets or in lots for much less -there are hundreds of lots of that stuff in raw form. Your inability to recognize that product in unopened form will always hold a premium over what ultimately would come out of it is getting comical.
<< <i> Your inability to recognize that product in unopened form will always hold a premium over what ultimately would come out of it is getting comical. >>
It won't over the long-term. But if you're willing to pay X+Y for something that is only worth X, then that is your right. I'll just pay X and get X, and then spend Y on something else. But you keep throwing it away if you want to.
What are you going to try to convince us of next? Maybe that people buy old wrappers and empty wax boxes because they feel that they contain an equal value in ink, paper and cardboard?
RookieWax-I'm not sure you clearly understand the debate. If you go back and read the posts of the "proponents" of wax, you'll find that they most of those proponents support buying wax because they believe that what's inside has value that equals or exceeds the price of the box.
Even YOU supported that viewpoint earlier in THIS thread when you said that " If you only paid $5 for the boxes you were holding, then $15 to $20 per box is a pretty good return. No different if you had paid $200 for a box from the 1970s and it's value rose up to $600 to $800. Again, nice return.....right?"
That viewpoint supports what I, and Dpeck, and Cubskiller99, and several others have been saying. Most buyers of wax have economic rationale for doing so. That's market pricing and the "linkage" pricing between packs and the cards within the packs.
Your viewpoint seems to have "evolved" from that camp just a few days ago and now you're on the other end of the spectrum in what I'll call the "Grote" camp which believes that pack prices are more independant of the value of the cards inside the packs.
The nostalgia effect on pack prices is a good argument at the low end of the market but as the prices go up that argument seems to lose some validity. If someone feels like they are simply scratching a lottery ticket for fun then opening up some packs of 1989 Fleer to land a Ken Griffey Jr. could be worth it to them but as prices rise there needs to be a value proposition that has a chance to support the price.
For example, opening a pack of 1985 Topps or Fleer baseball could offer a great amount of enjoyment for someone who collected those cards as a kid but the boxes would never sell for what they do if there was nothing of value inside.
A quick search of EBAY shows that a box of 1985 Fleer can be had for roughly $100. A box of 1985 Topps can be had for roughly $85. Each box contains 36 packs with 15 cards for a total of 540 cards. This means you have a lot of chances to find sharp cards and perhaps multiples of many of the star cards.
The most expensive cards from both of these sets in raw form are essentially the same and when you add the advent of grading you broaden that reach to cards such as Cal Ripken or Nolan Ryan that can command a nice price relative to their raw form.
The most recent selling price of a PSA 10 Mark Mcgwire is $365. When this card was valued well north of $1,000 the pack prices were at least 4 times higher. This to me is a perfect example of what McAdams is trying to suggest that the potential inside the box has a direct impact on the price. In many cases someone opening a box may lose money but there is always the chance that they land some of the better cards and actually make money and so there is a risk premium associated with that.
On the flip side when you go out to much older wax from the 50's or 60's the scarcity of the the pack itself is a major driving force of the price. That being said if you took a 1952 Topps unopened pack it's value is derived from both the scarcity and the value of the potential contents inside. If there was not the chance to land mint condition cards from the set the pack prices would never achieve what they do and as the value of graded cards from this set has climbed so too have the pack prices.
If for some reason card prices from this set were to decline that would most likely put downward pressure on the prices of the packs as the potential contents inside would be worth less. The scarcity element though could reduce some of that downward pressure but not all.
There are most likely exceptions to this rule. If there was a pack from some form of trading cards that was incredibly scarce and had such limited quantities known in circulation then buyers would have no choice but to pay a large price simply for the right to own a sealed pack from this set. This is clearly the exception and not the rule.
I understand the points made here. But any honest person here cannot deny that there is always some premium on a product in unopened vs. opened form. It is undeniable with other collectibles as well. Toys and action figures from the 1970s and 1980s also carry a premium in their original unopened packaging. Here is an example of what I am saying: you couldn't pay someone to come take your gem mint 1991 to 1992 upper deck baseball, football, or hockey hand collated sets off your hands. But you can still get $10 or more for these in unopened wax boxes due to the premium added by the "thrill' of the buyer being able to open the cards themselves or to display the packs/boxes in unopened form. And for other products, scarcity and condition sensitive rookie cards only enhance that premium. That has been my point all along. And as more and more product gets bought up and opened, unopened product will only get scarcer.
I think we have to remember too that there is a definite distinction between "vintage" unopened (pre-1980) and unopened post-1980. The scarcity of unopened product from the 1970s and earlier is a huge factor in value, but even if we set that aside, there will always be the possibility that you can,. for example, pull a PSA 10 George Brett RC out of a 75 wax pack, or a PSA 10 Mike Schmidt RC out of a Series 5 73 wax pack (and in the latter example, that is why Series 5 1973 packs will command a premium over Series 4 1973 wax packs, for example). I don't ever see the value of such potential pulls ever declining to the point where a major payoff is not possible, but it is also certainly true that in the vast majority of cases, the value of the unopened vintage pack itself will exceed the sum of its parts. Of course, the high value of such graded cards is also inextricably linked to the scarcity and value of said unoperned product.
I do think Michael's rationale is a better barometer for product from post-1980, as its overall availability is much greater than that of pre-1980 product, and its value and retail price reflects both that reality and the fact that the value of any PSA 10 card from those sets to be much lower than the aforementioned examples. So there is logic to both sides of the equation.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>I think we have to remember too that there is a definite distinction between "vintage" unopened (pre-1980) and unopened post-1980. The scarcity of unopened product from the 1970s and earlier is a huge factor in value, but even if we set that aside, there will always be the possibility that you can,. for example, pull a PSA 10 George Brett RC out of a 75 wax pack, or a PSA 10 Mike Schmidt RC out of a Series 5 73 wax pack (and in the latter example, that is why Series 5 1973 packs will command a premium over Series 4 1973 wax packs, for example). I don't ever see the value of such potential pulls ever declining to the point where a major payoff is not possible, but it is also certainly true that in the vast majority of cases, the value of the unopened vintage pack itself will exceed the sum of its parts. Of course, the high value of such graded cards is also inextricably linked to the scarcity and value of said unoperned product.. >>
Agreed, the risk/reward linkage for unopened is clear.
Vintage unopened much more expensive but potential upside huge so price is high.
Post-1985 has much lower reward potential and availability high keeping price down.
But for me personally, I think the post-1985 is where there is money to be made. All in the interest of using proceeds for expanding your PC of course.
The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was to convince the PSA 10 collector he didn't exist.
1) Late 70's pack prices are rising 2) Grote refuses to sell me his '78 Braves psa 10 team card >>
LOL, Michael you know all these years I've really been just a closet Braves fan!
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
So if it stands to reason that late 80's packs for submission to return in PSA 10's are the best value in making money, then it could be argued the same that sending in 2012 and 2013 would be a considerable equivalent in the same venture.
I'm not real familiar with post 1995 cards in general, or the liklihood of getting a PSA 10. I also don't follow the pricing on more recent cards. I do know that the price per pack and box is a LOT higher. So again it's a case of appropriate risk/reward and that just might be worth it for some people.
I'm not sure that 80's - early 90s junk wax is the best value for everyone, because that depends on the both the submitter's discernment and a little luck with getting a grader that might be in a magnanimous mood. PSA 10 is never easy but if if you can get one decent PSA 10 per $8 wax box, that will easily pay for several boxes. It's worked for me lately. Case in point: I sold three PSA 10 Pucketts from 1991 Topps wax boxes, the three in total almost paid for an entire 1991 Topps wax case. I'm still working those 10,000 cards. Chipper Jones is selling now for $70-90 in PSA 10, $15 in PSA 9. I have sixteen to consider grading. I got 20 Ryans and those usually sell for $30-40, my 4 submitted were graded PSA 10. Maybe I'm just lucky.
The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was to convince the PSA 10 collector he didn't exist.
Whoever revived this thread today, kudos. All of the opining has been great, and I've found myself able to concur with (at a bare minimum) bits and pieces of every post. More of these discussions are just fine by me.
Suffice it to say, there are myriad factors involved here. But in my humble opinion, the vast majority point toward continued appreciation for the oldest available unopened product. Maybe I've missed something along the way, but I have yet to see any type of correction. From my viewpoint we're heading one direction -- and picking up steam.
Back to '80 Topps, if I may. This is the year I started obliterating wax as a kid, hence I've had more than a passing interest in unopened prices. Just last year I recall (on multiple occasions) hammer prices just shy of $300 for complete wax boxes. Now go take a look at completed listings on eBay. If you're not interested in doing that, I'll make it even easier:
I can only come up with one salient explanation for this: 70's unopened becoming increasingly more difficult to track down, thus 1980 Topps quickly becoming the next best option to scratch that nostalgic itch. Last time I checked, no one from '80 is still playing, no one from that era is walking through the doors of the Hall in a few months, Rickey Henderson didn't miraculously join the set after 30+ years, and pop numbers aren't pulling a Houdini act by dwindling.
<< <i> I can only come up with one salient explanation for this: 70's unopened becoming increasingly more difficult to track down, thus 1980 Topps quickly becoming the next best option to scratch that nostalgic itch. Last time I checked, no one from '80 is still playing, no one from that era is walking through the doors of the Hall in a few months, Rickey Henderson didn't miraculously join the set after 30+ years, and pop numbers aren't pulling a Houdini act by dwindling.
So why the spike? >>
Unopened supply has been gradually decreasing. But now mre ten year olds from 1980 are comfortable enough to afford an expensive wax box that could have a PSA 9 or 10 Henderson. Hard to resist. They will overpay slightly then that becomes the de facto price.
The pull of nostalgia is strong increasing demand for a decreasing supply.
You yourself are one of those guys that still craves the 1980 wax box.
The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was to convince the PSA 10 collector he didn't exist.
The problem with unopened is if you are not BBCE you do not get the premiums. I would think if one buys for example an 83 topps BB box for 140 he could sell back to BBCE for $70 or sell on EBAY for a steep discount to the $140 Steve sells them for because everyone would rather buy from BBCE then someone else. Secondly, why anyone would buy a graded pack of 1986 fleer BB or something else is mind boggling to me. How many times has there been an 86 box busted on the board and people wait to see how many Jordans have been pulled them decide to grade the packs once the Jordans have been pulled. I ripped a box of 86 topps football recently had 2 Jerry Rices and 2 Steve Youngs in the first 9 packs...I could have sent the rest in knowing that none would probally have the big cards left. I know this happens time and time again so I cannot understand why people would want to by a loose graded pack.
The problem with unopened is if you are not BBCE you do not get the premiums.
This is not entirely accurate. Steve usually gets a premium over the average retail price, but his retail prices are typically priced higher to begin with. OTOH, the retail prices for unopened product from reliable sources continues to rise, in most cases exceeding what Steve had priced product for in the recent past, so Steve's prices have been raised to compensate for that, as well. I can recall Steve selling 75 mini boxes for $1,300, 78 wax boxes for $625, 79 wax boxes for $425 and 80 wax boxes for $350 in the not too distant past, but those prices are now outdated both on the open market, and, of course, on the BBCE site..
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
What I find so interesting about the pre-1985 or so unopened material is the speculative nature and how that relates to pricing. We all know what the good cards are in these sets are, some sets having quite a few more than others. We have population reports for graded cards. Unopened is a black box.
With a lot of other collectibles you have a rough idea of the number of specimens out there, based on production numbers or a mature market where you aren't going to see of sudden influx of unknown items.
With unopened cards it anyone's guess as to what is still left.
Could be a lot less or a lot more for any one issue.
The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was to convince the PSA 10 collector he didn't exist.
Just in case I am completely wrong about unopened prices over the next decade, I bought a few '82 boxes (Fleer and Donruss, no Topps) from Steve last month. I looked in my card closet and was saddened to see all graded, but no boxes, so I guess it was time. I was very surprised when I checked back on the BBCE site last night and noticed that all of the 82 boxes had been marked up since just 2 weeks ago when I bought mine. I guess prices in early 80's are already moving up....
<< <i>Just in case I am completely wrong about unopened prices over the next decade, I bought a few '82 boxes (Fleer and Donruss, no Topps) from Steve last month. I looked in my card closet and was saddened to see all graded, but no boxes, so I guess it was time. I was very surprised when I checked back on the BBCE site last night and noticed that all of the 82 boxes had been marked up since just 2 weeks ago when I bought mine. I guess prices in early 80's are already moving up.... >>
Welcome to the dark side, Michael...
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>Just in case I am completely wrong about unopened prices over the next decade, I bought a few '82 boxes (Fleer and Donruss, no Topps) from Steve last month. I looked in my card closet and was saddened to see all graded, but no boxes, so I guess it was time. I was very surprised when I checked back on the BBCE site last night and noticed that all of the 82 boxes had been marked up since just 2 weeks ago when I bought mine. I guess prices in early 80's are already moving up.... >>
Welcome to the dark side, Michael... >>
Seems pricing on 83 Fleer and Donruss and 84 Fleer have also gone up in price about $5 more than last I remember seeing.
Comments
<< <i> Your inability to recognize that product in unopened form will always hold a premium over what ultimately would come out of it is getting comical. >>
It won't over the long-term. But if you're willing to pay X+Y for something that is only worth X, then that is your right. I'll just pay X and get X, and then spend Y on something else. But you keep throwing it away if you want to.
Always buying Bobby Cox inserts. PM me.
Even YOU supported that viewpoint earlier in THIS thread when you said that " If you only paid $5 for the boxes you were holding, then $15 to $20 per box is a pretty good return. No different if you had paid $200 for a box from the 1970s and it's value rose up to $600 to $800. Again, nice return.....right?"
That viewpoint supports what I, and Dpeck, and Cubskiller99, and several others have been saying. Most buyers of wax have economic rationale for doing so. That's market pricing and the "linkage" pricing between packs and the cards within the packs.
Your viewpoint seems to have "evolved" from that camp just a few days ago and now you're on the other end of the spectrum in what I'll call the "Grote" camp which believes that pack prices are more independant of the value of the cards inside the packs.
Always buying Bobby Cox inserts. PM me.
This might help explain it. The current bid price is $60 for a lot on EBAY.
For example, opening a pack of 1985 Topps or Fleer baseball could offer a great amount of enjoyment for someone who collected those cards as a kid but the boxes would never sell for what they do if there was nothing of value inside.
A quick search of EBAY shows that a box of 1985 Fleer can be had for roughly $100. A box of 1985 Topps can be had for roughly $85. Each box contains 36 packs with 15 cards for a total of 540 cards. This means you have a lot of chances to find sharp cards and perhaps multiples of many of the star cards.
The most expensive cards from both of these sets in raw form are essentially the same and when you add the advent of grading you broaden that reach to cards such as Cal Ripken or Nolan Ryan that can command a nice price relative to their raw form.
The most recent selling price of a PSA 10 Mark Mcgwire is $365. When this card was valued well north of $1,000 the pack prices were at least 4 times higher. This to me is a perfect example of what McAdams is trying to suggest that the potential inside the box has a direct impact on the price. In many cases someone opening a box may lose money but there is always the chance that they land some of the better cards and actually make money and so there is a risk premium associated with that.
On the flip side when you go out to much older wax from the 50's or 60's the scarcity of the the pack itself is a major driving force of the price. That being said if you took a 1952 Topps unopened pack it's value is derived from both the scarcity and the value of the potential contents inside. If there was not the chance to land mint condition cards from the set the pack prices would never achieve what they do and as the value of graded cards from this set has climbed so too have the pack prices.
If for some reason card prices from this set were to decline that would most likely put downward pressure on the prices of the packs as the potential contents inside would be worth less. The scarcity element though could reduce some of that downward pressure but not all.
There are most likely exceptions to this rule. If there was a pack from some form of trading cards that was incredibly scarce and had such limited quantities known in circulation then buyers would have no choice but to pay a large price simply for the right to own a sealed pack from this set. This is clearly the exception and not the rule.
I do think Michael's rationale is a better barometer for product from post-1980, as its overall availability is much greater than that of pre-1980 product, and its value and retail price reflects both that reality and the fact that the value of any PSA 10 card from those sets to be much lower than the aforementioned examples. So there is logic to both sides of the equation.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>I think we have to remember too that there is a definite distinction between "vintage" unopened (pre-1980) and unopened post-1980. The scarcity of unopened product from the 1970s and earlier is a huge factor in value, but even if we set that aside, there will always be the possibility that you can,. for example, pull a PSA 10 George Brett RC out of a 75 wax pack, or a PSA 10 Mike Schmidt RC out of a Series 5 73 wax pack (and in the latter example, that is why Series 5 1973 packs will command a premium over Series 4 1973 wax packs, for example). I don't ever see the value of such potential pulls ever declining to the point where a major payoff is not possible, but it is also certainly true that in the vast majority of cases, the value of the unopened vintage pack itself will exceed the sum of its parts. Of course, the high value of such graded cards is also inextricably linked to the scarcity and value of said unoperned product.. >>
Agreed, the risk/reward linkage for unopened is clear.
Vintage unopened much more expensive but potential upside huge so price is high.
Post-1985 has much lower reward potential and availability high keeping price down.
But for me personally, I think the post-1985 is where there is money to be made. All in
the interest of using proceeds for expanding your PC of course.
DaveB in St.Louis
1) Late 70's pack prices are rising
2) Grote refuses to sell me his '78 Braves psa 10 team card
Always buying Bobby Cox inserts. PM me.
<< <i>2 undisputable facts continue to be true:
1) Late 70's pack prices are rising
2) Grote refuses to sell me his '78 Braves psa 10 team card >>
LOL, Michael you know all these years I've really been just a closet Braves fan!
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>
<< <i>2 undisputable facts continue to be true:
1) Late 70's pack prices are rising
2) Grote refuses to sell me his '78 Braves psa 10 team card >>
LOL, Michael you know all these years I've really been just a closet Braves fan! >>
You should try getting him to sell any unopened Seaver packs.
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep."
"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."
Collecting:
Any unopened Baseball cello and rack packs and boxes from the 1970's and early 1980s.
pricing on more recent cards. I do know that the price per pack and box is a LOT higher. So again it's a case
of appropriate risk/reward and that just might be worth it for some people.
I'm not sure that 80's - early 90s junk wax is the best value for everyone, because that depends on the
both the submitter's discernment and a little luck with getting a grader that might be in a magnanimous mood.
PSA 10 is never easy but if if you can get one decent PSA 10 per $8 wax box, that will easily pay for several boxes.
It's worked for me lately. Case in point: I sold three PSA 10 Pucketts from 1991 Topps wax boxes, the three
in total almost paid for an entire 1991 Topps wax case. I'm still working those 10,000 cards. Chipper Jones is
selling now for $70-90 in PSA 10, $15 in PSA 9. I have sixteen to consider grading. I got 20 Ryans and those
usually sell for $30-40, my 4 submitted were graded PSA 10. Maybe I'm just lucky.
DaveB in St.Louis
Suffice it to say, there are myriad factors involved here. But in my humble opinion, the vast majority point toward continued appreciation for the oldest available unopened product. Maybe I've missed something along the way, but I have yet to see any type of correction. From my viewpoint we're heading one direction -- and picking up steam.
Back to '80 Topps, if I may. This is the year I started obliterating wax as a kid, hence I've had more than a passing interest in unopened prices. Just last year I recall (on multiple occasions) hammer prices just shy of $300 for complete wax boxes. Now go take a look at completed listings on eBay. If you're not interested in doing that, I'll make it even easier:
2 days left
I can only come up with one salient explanation for this: 70's unopened becoming increasingly more difficult to track down, thus 1980 Topps quickly becoming the next best option to scratch that nostalgic itch. Last time I checked, no one from '80 is still playing, no one from that era is walking through the doors of the Hall in a few months, Rickey Henderson didn't miraculously join the set after 30+ years, and pop numbers aren't pulling a Houdini act by dwindling.
So why the spike?
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
<< <i>
I can only come up with one salient explanation for this: 70's unopened becoming increasingly more difficult to track down, thus 1980 Topps quickly becoming the next best option to scratch that nostalgic itch. Last time I checked, no one from '80 is still playing, no one from that era is walking through the doors of the Hall in a few months, Rickey Henderson didn't miraculously join the set after 30+ years, and pop numbers aren't pulling a Houdini act by dwindling.
So why the spike? >>
Unopened supply has been gradually decreasing. But now mre ten year olds from 1980 are comfortable enough to afford an expensive wax box
that could have a PSA 9 or 10 Henderson. Hard to resist. They will overpay slightly then that becomes the de facto price.
The pull of nostalgia is strong increasing demand for a decreasing supply.
You yourself are one of those guys that still craves the 1980 wax box.
DaveB in St.Louis
This is not entirely accurate. Steve usually gets a premium over the average retail price, but his retail prices are typically priced higher to begin with. OTOH, the retail prices for unopened product from reliable sources continues to rise, in most cases exceeding what Steve had priced product for in the recent past, so Steve's prices have been raised to compensate for that, as well. I can recall Steve selling 75 mini boxes for $1,300, 78 wax boxes for $625, 79 wax boxes for $425 and 80 wax boxes for $350 in the not too distant past, but those prices are now outdated both on the open market, and, of course, on the BBCE site..
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
that relates to pricing. We all know what the good cards are in these sets are, some sets having quite
a few more than others. We have population reports for graded cards. Unopened is a black box.
With a lot of other collectibles you have a rough idea of the number of specimens out there, based
on production numbers or a mature market where you aren't going to see of sudden influx of
unknown items.
With unopened cards it anyone's guess as to what is still left.
Could be a lot less or a lot more for any one issue.
DaveB in St.Louis
Always buying Bobby Cox inserts. PM me.
<< <i>Just in case I am completely wrong about unopened prices over the next decade, I bought a few '82 boxes (Fleer and Donruss, no Topps) from Steve last month. I looked in my card closet and was saddened to see all graded, but no boxes, so I guess it was time. I was very surprised when I checked back on the BBCE site last night and noticed that all of the 82 boxes had been marked up since just 2 weeks ago when I bought mine. I guess prices in early 80's are already moving up.... >>
Welcome to the dark side, Michael...
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>
<< <i>Just in case I am completely wrong about unopened prices over the next decade, I bought a few '82 boxes (Fleer and Donruss, no Topps) from Steve last month. I looked in my card closet and was saddened to see all graded, but no boxes, so I guess it was time. I was very surprised when I checked back on the BBCE site last night and noticed that all of the 82 boxes had been marked up since just 2 weeks ago when I bought mine. I guess prices in early 80's are already moving up.... >>
Welcome to the dark side, Michael...
Seems pricing on 83 Fleer and Donruss and 84 Fleer have also gone up in price about $5 more than last I remember seeing.
WTB: PSA 1 - PSA 3 Centered, High Eye Appeal 1950's Mantle