Those of us who stayed on the sidelines since this thread was started in late Feb., are the winners. The losers are the perma bulls who insist on catching the falling knife. I'm referring to the actual stuff & not the ETF traders.
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
<< <i>Those of us who stayed on the sidelines since this thread was started in late Feb., are the winners. The losers are the perma bulls who insist on catching the falling knife. I'm referring to the actual stuff & not the ETF traders. >>
I guess I am a perma bull as I have been buying silver every week for the past 5 years. Was buying it when it was low, buying it when it the price was high, and continue buying it now. The end game is what matters. The same economic factors that motivated me buying 5 years ago are still in place and are not improving. If anything, they have gotten worse. The paper markets have played a number on the metals but I thank them for bringing down the price. In my opinion, PMs will see new highs in the next couple of years so I will continue to stack each and every week. When the economic conditions begin to improve, I will sell at that point.
Ken
American Numismatic Association Governor 2023 to 2025 - My posts reflect my own thoughts and are not those of the ANA.My Numismatics with Kenny Twitter Page
<< <i>Those of us who stayed on the sidelines since this thread was started in late Feb., are the winners. The losers are the perma bulls who insist on catching the falling knife. I'm referring to the actual stuff & not the ETF traders. >>
I guess I am a perma bull as I have been buying silver every week for the past 5 years. Was buying it when it was low, buying it when it the price was high, and continue buying it now. The end game is what matters. The same economic factors that motivated me buying 5 years ago are still in place and are not improving. If anything, they have gotten worse. The paper markets have played a number on the metals but I thank them for bringing down the price. In my opinion, PMs will see new highs in the next couple of years so I will continue to stack each and every week. When the economic conditions begin to improve, I will sell at that point.
Ken >>
Ken. I'm not sure in what part of the US you're living, but in my neck of the woods, home sales are up, foreclosures are way down, car sales are booming, Industry is enjoying a banner year and more people are employed. Yes, unemployment is still high, but those that WANT TO WORK, will find it. I just don't share your pessimistic review. Take of your blinders and visit the rest of the country.
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
<< <i>Those of us who stayed on the sidelines since this thread was started in late Feb., are the winners. The losers are the perma bulls who insist on catching the falling knife. I'm referring to the actual stuff & not the ETF traders. >>
what are the odds that economic improvement is only temporary? One must consider what is being done to stimulate the improvement and what its being publized to sell it and then revisit the fundamentals that instruct us to stack. Cash is having its day in the sun but that is no reason to cease buying dollar insurance - fundamentals dictate it will be needed.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Unemployment is still high and those that are working are most likely underemployed....
Not all parts of the US housing market are trailing upwards. In the markets that are, supply has been limited by the banks in order to drive up price as investor demand commands the markets.
Example... Seem a bit strange to you that nearly 70% of the home sales in an area like Las Vegas all paid for in ALL cash? They have less than 30 days of product on the market (healthy markets are roughly 6 months supply). Banks have cut off foreclosure due to insane laws that stop them dead in the tracks (Bill 284 in Nevada; look it up).
I can tell you that in Orange County, CA decent/nice homes (range 500-1m in price) are getting upwards of 15+ offers on them in days of being placed on the MLS. I remember a time not too long ago when that was the case, and we all know how that has turned out. Its funny because I feel like no one has learned their lesson from the housing/credit crash. I just got in the mail a notice from Wells Fargo (servicer on my loan). They noticed I have over 20% equity in my house (Im at 21% lol) and want to extend me a loan using my house as collateral of up to 20% of the appraised value at a rate of low 4%.... Just plain stupid.
Also, Trulia just put out some software that tries to calculate whether the area in which you are looking to find a home is overvalued or not based on several different criteria. According to their software, the major cities/counties that are overvalued by 10% or more (that I can remember off the top of my head) were Orange County/LA County, Manhattan, San Fran, Houston, Austin and Portland.
<< <i>Those of us who stayed on the sidelines since this thread was started in late Feb., are the winners. The losers are the perma bulls who insist on catching the falling knife. I'm referring to the actual stuff & not the ETF traders. >>
I guess I am a perma bull as I have been buying silver every week for the past 5 years. Was buying it when it was low, buying it when it the price was high, and continue buying it now. The end game is what matters. The same economic factors that motivated me buying 5 years ago are still in place and are not improving. If anything, they have gotten worse. The paper markets have played a number on the metals but I thank them for bringing down the price. In my opinion, PMs will see new highs in the next couple of years so I will continue to stack each and every week. When the economic conditions begin to improve, I will sell at that point.
Ken >>
Ken. I'm not sure in what part of the US you're living, but in my neck of the woods, home sales are up, foreclosures are way down, car sales are booming, Industry is enjoying a banner year and more people are employed. Yes, unemployment is still high, but those that WANT TO WORK, will find it. I just don't share your pessimistic review. Take of your blinders and visit the rest of the country. >>
There are some economic improvements taking place however in the scheme of things, they are minor and this minor recovery is very fragile. There is a huge disconnect between Wall Street, main street, and the overall economic underlying condition.
The FED has been able to prop up the economy in the short term with its massive rounds of QE. Unfortunately, that medicine may be the same toxic medicine that will eventually harm the patient. At this point, the FED is not worried about inflation. Their concerns are low unemployment and deflation. In their minds, they have no choice but to keep pumping out money. 5 years of easy money and our economy is only growing at 2% or so. You do not need to be an economic major to see there is a problem with that.
What can go wrong and why I do not feel good about the future.
One possibility is that the FED continues to pump out money and eventually inflation takes hold. Maybe not hyperinflation but enough inflation that puts even more strain on Joe 6-pack and he is forced to consume less so GDP stays low.
Or
The FED decides to shut off the printing press and deflation really takes hold causing a major recession.
Or
The FED does something in between and bond holders demand higher returns causing interest rates to rise to more historic rates causing the interest owed on the $17 trillion to go from $200+ billion to more than $400 billion.
Or a number of other possibilities that well-meaning but economically stupid politicians will cause my poor decisions.
Those with rose colored glasses seem to forget what being $17 trillion (and going up every year for the seeable future) means to our economy. They also forget that it takes about $3.3 trillion to $3.5 trillion a year to run our country and pay for all the programs that have been created. Even with the higher tax revenues this year, the national debt will grow. Add the costs of the new health care plan in 2014 and you can be assured that the budget will not be balanced and the projected trillion dollar a year deficits will remain in place. Higher taxes will only add fuel to the possible recession fire so the government has to be careful about raising taxes while they have shown little resolve in cutting expenses.
Until they come up with a way to balance the budget while not hurting the economy (not an easy task) and begin to reduce the national debt, I will continue to stack PMs. PMs are just a portion of my portfolio, but in my opinion, they are the most important part of my portfolio as they represent insurance should our leaders make the incorrect choices.
To answer your question, I live in the Philly suburbs. Housing has not recovered. Our paid-off million dollar home is now $600 to $700,000. Still lots of homes not being sold here on the East coast. People I speak with are still very concerned about keeping their jobs. Others have had to take lesser paying jobs. Some still cannot find work. There may be more jobs out there but they are not the quality high paying jobs many had before 2008. My home in Arizona dropped by more than a third in price. It is up just 10% from the bottom. A lot of the home sales taking place are by investors who plan to rent out until the market truly moves up.
Car sales have gone up. We purchased two cars in the past year but we had to. The cars we replaced were cars we purchased in 1999 and 2000. It was costing too much to keep them operating. In my youth, I traded in cars every couple of years. Learned over the years that you should hold on to that depreciating asset for as long as you can. Otherwise you are throwing away money. We were lucky enough to afford to be able to purchase. Another round of recession and the car industry will take an enormous blow.
My wife considers me too much of an optimist but when it comes to the economy she sees me as a realist. I love our country and what it has allowed me to achieve. I fly our flag every day but there is nothing wrong with stating your opinion that your present (and past) leaders have taken us down a path that will take a very long time to recover. I fear that we will have to hit bottom (economically) before we can recover. Our debt and dependency on our government almost guarantees that.
American Numismatic Association Governor 2023 to 2025 - My posts reflect my own thoughts and are not those of the ANA.My Numismatics with Kenny Twitter Page
"There is a huge disconnect between Wall Street, main street, and the overall economic underlying condition."
That seems to fit my assessment of the situation as well. Realize that we are not so much a manufacturing based economy as we were in bygone years. We are a consumer driven economy that has shifted considerably to the services industry from a manufacturing based economy. The more consumerism, the more taxation. I remember someone on our forum stating (it's been a while so my number may not be exact) that each physical $1 that circulates will generate $14 in taxes before the dollar bill is destroyed because of damage. The taxation that comes from consumerism is the basis of our national economic wherewithall in these modern times.
If people are dour on our economic situation, they buy used cars instead of new. If people don't have confidence in Wall Street and accessibility to loan money then they won't buy houses. If bad news pervades the economic outlook then they hunker down and just buy what they have to have. Instead of flying to Cabo for a long weekend, they are driving to grandma's house for vacation. If the outlook is good, they don't mind punching the credit card for a new computer or getting that new patio. In short, if people are confident and spending money then the gov makes lots of money and if they are not confident, the gov rake diminishes.
The disconnect seems to come from the fact that we are pumping $85 BBBBillion a month into the economy via QE and the DOW is at record highs. The $85B is nothing but debt, manufactured from thin air and transferred to the tax payers, at least transferred to the 51% that have positive AGI's, including every working stiff got hosed from the expiration of the Bush tax cuts but no complaints, it's a good thing.
With the DOW ar record highs then business must be booming so what's not to like? Meanwhile job growth is stagnant, unemployment at 8% +/- and they just closed 50 schools in Chicago because they can't pay for them. State budgets are war zones and city budget cuts are in the news every day from across the country but the economic sunshine flows from the media...so keep up the positive outlook, it's all good. Now get out there and burn off some Bens and do your part.
<< <i>"There is a huge disconnect between Wall Street, main street, and the overall economic underlying condition."
That seems to fit my assessment of the situation as well. Realize that we are not so much a manufacturing based economy as we were in bygone years. We are a consumer driven economy that has shifted considerably to the services industry from a manufacturing based economy. The more consumerism, the more taxation. I remember someone on our forum stating (it's been a while so my number may not be exact) that each physical $1 that circulates will generate $14 in taxes before the dollar bill is destroyed because of damage. The taxation that comes from consumerism is the basis of our national economic wherewithall in these modern times.
If people are dour on our economic situation, they buy used cars instead of new. If people don't have confidence in Wall Street and accessibility to loan money then they won't buy houses. If bad news pervades the economic outlook then they hunker down and just buy what they have to have. Instead of flying to Cabo for a long weekend, they are driving to grandma's house for vacation. If the outlook is good, they don't mind punching the credit card for a new computer or getting that new patio. In short, if people are confident and spending money then the gov makes lots of money and if they are not confident, the gov rake diminishes.
The disconnect seems to come from the fact that we are pumping $85 BBBBillion a month into the economy via QE and the DOW is at record highs. The $85B is nothing but debt, manufactured from thin air and transferred to the tax payers, at least transferred to the 51% that have positive AGI's, including every working stiff got hosed from the expiration of the Bush tax cuts but no complaints, it's a good thing.
With the DOW ar record highs then business must be booming so what's not to like? Meanwhile job growth is stagnant, unemployment at 8% +/- and they just closed 50 schools in Chicago because they can't pay for them. State budgets are war zones and city budget cuts are in the news every day from across the country but the economic sunshine flows from the media...so keep up the positive outlook, it's all good. Now get out there and burn off some Bens and do your part.
Hey buddy, can you spare some 90%? >>
Well said and thanks to those who appreciated my thoughts.
American Numismatic Association Governor 2023 to 2025 - My posts reflect my own thoughts and are not those of the ANA.My Numismatics with Kenny Twitter Page
Comments
<< <i>Those of us who stayed on the sidelines since this thread was started in late Feb., are the winners. The losers are the perma bulls who insist on catching the falling knife. I'm referring to the actual stuff & not the ETF traders. >>
I guess I am a perma bull as I have been buying silver every week for the past 5 years. Was buying it when it was low, buying it when it the price was high, and continue buying it now. The end game is what matters. The same economic factors that motivated me buying 5 years ago are still in place and are not improving. If anything, they have gotten worse. The paper markets have played a number on the metals but I thank them for bringing down the price. In my opinion, PMs will see new highs in the next couple of years so I will continue to stack each and every week. When the economic conditions begin to improve, I will sell at that point.
Ken
Instagram - numismatistkenny
My Numismatics with Kenny Blog Page Best viewed on a laptop or monitor.
ANA Life Member & Volunteer District Representative
2019 ANA Young Numismatist of the Year
Doing my best to introduce Young Numismatists and Young Adults into the hobby.
<< <i>
<< <i>Those of us who stayed on the sidelines since this thread was started in late Feb., are the winners. The losers are the perma bulls who insist on catching the falling knife. I'm referring to the actual stuff & not the ETF traders. >>
I guess I am a perma bull as I have been buying silver every week for the past 5 years. Was buying it when it was low, buying it when it the price was high, and continue buying it now. The end game is what matters. The same economic factors that motivated me buying 5 years ago are still in place and are not improving. If anything, they have gotten worse. The paper markets have played a number on the metals but I thank them for bringing down the price. In my opinion, PMs will see new highs in the next couple of years so I will continue to stack each and every week. When the economic conditions begin to improve, I will sell at that point.
Ken >>
Ken. I'm not sure in what part of the US you're living, but in my neck of the woods, home sales are up, foreclosures are way down, car sales are booming, Industry is enjoying a banner year and more people are employed. Yes, unemployment is still high, but those that WANT TO WORK, will find it. I just don't share your pessimistic review. Take of your blinders and visit the rest of the country.
<< <i>Those of us who stayed on the sidelines since this thread was started in late Feb., are the winners. The losers are the perma bulls who insist on catching the falling knife. I'm referring to the actual stuff & not the ETF traders. >>
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Not all parts of the US housing market are trailing upwards. In the markets that are, supply has been limited by the banks in order to drive up price as investor demand commands the markets.
Example... Seem a bit strange to you that nearly 70% of the home sales in an area like Las Vegas all paid for in ALL cash? They have less than 30 days of product on the market (healthy markets are roughly 6 months supply). Banks have cut off foreclosure due to insane laws that stop them dead in the tracks (Bill 284 in Nevada; look it up).
I can tell you that in Orange County, CA decent/nice homes (range 500-1m in price) are getting upwards of 15+ offers on them in days of being placed on the MLS. I remember a time not too long ago when that was the case, and we all know how that has turned out. Its funny because I feel like no one has learned their lesson from the housing/credit crash. I just got in the mail a notice from Wells Fargo (servicer on my loan). They noticed I have over 20% equity in my house (Im at 21% lol) and want to extend me a loan using my house as collateral of up to 20% of the appraised value at a rate of low 4%.... Just plain stupid.
Also, Trulia just put out some software that tries to calculate whether the area in which you are looking to find a home is overvalued or not based on several different criteria. According to their software, the major cities/counties that are overvalued by 10% or more (that I can remember off the top of my head) were Orange County/LA County, Manhattan, San Fran, Houston, Austin and Portland.
BST Transactions (as the seller): Collectall, GRANDAM, epcjimi1, wondercoin, jmski52, wheathoarder, jay1187, jdsueu, grote15, airplanenut, bigole
<< <i> buying dollar insurance >>
I like that phrase
BST Transactions (as the seller): Collectall, GRANDAM, epcjimi1, wondercoin, jmski52, wheathoarder, jay1187, jdsueu, grote15, airplanenut, bigole
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Those of us who stayed on the sidelines since this thread was started in late Feb., are the winners. The losers are the perma bulls who insist on catching the falling knife. I'm referring to the actual stuff & not the ETF traders. >>
I guess I am a perma bull as I have been buying silver every week for the past 5 years. Was buying it when it was low, buying it when it the price was high, and continue buying it now. The end game is what matters. The same economic factors that motivated me buying 5 years ago are still in place and are not improving. If anything, they have gotten worse. The paper markets have played a number on the metals but I thank them for bringing down the price. In my opinion, PMs will see new highs in the next couple of years so I will continue to stack each and every week. When the economic conditions begin to improve, I will sell at that point.
Ken >>
Ken. I'm not sure in what part of the US you're living, but in my neck of the woods, home sales are up, foreclosures are way down, car sales are booming, Industry is enjoying a banner year and more people are employed. Yes, unemployment is still high, but those that WANT TO WORK, will find it. I just don't share your pessimistic review. Take of your blinders and visit the rest of the country. >>
There are some economic improvements taking place however in the scheme of things, they are minor and this minor recovery is very fragile. There is a huge disconnect between Wall Street, main street, and the overall economic underlying condition.
The FED has been able to prop up the economy in the short term with its massive rounds of QE. Unfortunately, that medicine may be the same toxic medicine that will eventually harm the patient. At this point, the FED is not worried about inflation. Their concerns are low unemployment and deflation. In their minds, they have no choice but to keep pumping out money. 5 years of easy money and our economy is only growing at 2% or so. You do not need to be an economic major to see there is a problem with that.
What can go wrong and why I do not feel good about the future.
One possibility is that the FED continues to pump out money and eventually inflation takes hold. Maybe not hyperinflation but enough inflation that puts even more strain on Joe 6-pack and he is forced to consume less so GDP stays low.
Or
The FED decides to shut off the printing press and deflation really takes hold causing a major recession.
Or
The FED does something in between and bond holders demand higher returns causing interest rates to rise to more historic rates causing the interest owed on the $17 trillion to go from $200+ billion to more than $400 billion.
Or a number of other possibilities that well-meaning but economically stupid politicians will cause my poor decisions.
Those with rose colored glasses seem to forget what being $17 trillion (and going up every year for the seeable future) means to our economy. They also forget that it takes about $3.3 trillion to $3.5 trillion a year to run our country and pay for all the programs that have been created. Even with the higher tax revenues this year, the national debt will grow. Add the costs of the new health care plan in 2014 and you can be assured that the budget will not be balanced and the projected trillion dollar a year deficits will remain in place. Higher taxes will only add fuel to the possible recession fire so the government has to be careful about raising taxes while they have shown little resolve in cutting expenses.
Until they come up with a way to balance the budget while not hurting the economy (not an easy task) and begin to reduce the national debt, I will continue to stack PMs. PMs are just a portion of my portfolio, but in my opinion, they are the most important part of my portfolio as they represent insurance should our leaders make the incorrect choices.
To answer your question, I live in the Philly suburbs. Housing has not recovered. Our paid-off million dollar home is now $600 to $700,000. Still lots of homes not being sold here on the East coast. People I speak with are still very concerned about keeping their jobs. Others have had to take lesser paying jobs. Some still cannot find work. There may be more jobs out there but they are not the quality high paying jobs many had before 2008. My home in Arizona dropped by more than a third in price. It is up just 10% from the bottom. A lot of the home sales taking place are by investors who plan to rent out until the market truly moves up.
Car sales have gone up. We purchased two cars in the past year but we had to. The cars we replaced were cars we purchased in 1999 and 2000. It was costing too much to keep them operating. In my youth, I traded in cars every couple of years. Learned over the years that you should hold on to that depreciating asset for as long as you can. Otherwise you are throwing away money. We were lucky enough to afford to be able to purchase. Another round of recession and the car industry will take an enormous blow.
My wife considers me too much of an optimist but when it comes to the economy she sees me as a realist. I love our country and what it has allowed me to achieve. I fly our flag every day but there is nothing wrong with stating your opinion that your present (and past) leaders have taken us down a path that will take a very long time to recover. I fear that we will have to hit bottom (economically) before we can recover. Our debt and dependency on our government almost guarantees that.
Instagram - numismatistkenny
My Numismatics with Kenny Blog Page Best viewed on a laptop or monitor.
ANA Life Member & Volunteer District Representative
2019 ANA Young Numismatist of the Year
Doing my best to introduce Young Numismatists and Young Adults into the hobby.
BST Transactions (as the seller): Collectall, GRANDAM, epcjimi1, wondercoin, jmski52, wheathoarder, jay1187, jdsueu, grote15, airplanenut, bigole
That seems to fit my assessment of the situation as well. Realize that we are not so much a manufacturing based economy as we were in bygone years. We are a consumer driven economy that has shifted considerably to the services industry from a manufacturing based economy. The more consumerism, the more taxation. I remember someone on our forum stating (it's been a while so my number may not be exact) that each physical $1 that circulates will generate $14 in taxes before the dollar bill is destroyed because of damage. The taxation that comes from consumerism is the basis of our national economic wherewithall in these modern times.
If people are dour on our economic situation, they buy used cars instead of new. If people don't have confidence in Wall Street and accessibility to loan money then they won't buy houses. If bad news pervades the economic outlook then they hunker down and just buy what they have to have. Instead of flying to Cabo for a long weekend, they are driving to grandma's house for vacation. If the outlook is good, they don't mind punching the credit card for a new computer or getting that new patio. In short, if people are confident and spending money then the gov makes lots of money and if they are not confident, the gov rake diminishes.
The disconnect seems to come from the fact that we are pumping $85 BBBBillion a month into the economy via QE and the DOW is at record highs. The $85B is nothing but debt, manufactured from thin air and transferred to the tax payers, at least transferred to the 51% that have positive AGI's, including every working stiff got hosed from the expiration of the Bush tax cuts but no complaints, it's a good thing.
With the DOW ar record highs then business must be booming so what's not to like? Meanwhile job growth is stagnant, unemployment at 8% +/- and they just closed 50 schools in Chicago because they can't pay for them. State budgets are war zones and city budget cuts are in the news every day from across the country but the economic sunshine flows from the media...so keep up the positive outlook, it's all good. Now get out there and burn off some Bens and do your part.
Hey buddy, can you spare some 90%?
<< <i>"There is a huge disconnect between Wall Street, main street, and the overall economic underlying condition."
That seems to fit my assessment of the situation as well. Realize that we are not so much a manufacturing based economy as we were in bygone years. We are a consumer driven economy that has shifted considerably to the services industry from a manufacturing based economy. The more consumerism, the more taxation. I remember someone on our forum stating (it's been a while so my number may not be exact) that each physical $1 that circulates will generate $14 in taxes before the dollar bill is destroyed because of damage. The taxation that comes from consumerism is the basis of our national economic wherewithall in these modern times.
If people are dour on our economic situation, they buy used cars instead of new. If people don't have confidence in Wall Street and accessibility to loan money then they won't buy houses. If bad news pervades the economic outlook then they hunker down and just buy what they have to have. Instead of flying to Cabo for a long weekend, they are driving to grandma's house for vacation. If the outlook is good, they don't mind punching the credit card for a new computer or getting that new patio. In short, if people are confident and spending money then the gov makes lots of money and if they are not confident, the gov rake diminishes.
The disconnect seems to come from the fact that we are pumping $85 BBBBillion a month into the economy via QE and the DOW is at record highs. The $85B is nothing but debt, manufactured from thin air and transferred to the tax payers, at least transferred to the 51% that have positive AGI's, including every working stiff got hosed from the expiration of the Bush tax cuts but no complaints, it's a good thing.
With the DOW ar record highs then business must be booming so what's not to like? Meanwhile job growth is stagnant, unemployment at 8% +/- and they just closed 50 schools in Chicago because they can't pay for them. State budgets are war zones and city budget cuts are in the news every day from across the country but the economic sunshine flows from the media...so keep up the positive outlook, it's all good. Now get out there and burn off some Bens and do your part.
Hey buddy, can you spare some 90%? >>
Well said and thanks to those who appreciated my thoughts.
Instagram - numismatistkenny
My Numismatics with Kenny Blog Page Best viewed on a laptop or monitor.
ANA Life Member & Volunteer District Representative
2019 ANA Young Numismatist of the Year
Doing my best to introduce Young Numismatists and Young Adults into the hobby.