....The silence here is deafining...........Silver?
SUMORADA
Posts: 4,797 ✭
What do you think silver is going to do in the very near future ?.......all opinions appreciated.
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Of course since the gold and silver react about the same, only bigger for gold. Scare the underpants off of some of us. Me included.
In other words..
A Tease.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
1. Silver will fall further this spring and bottom around $24 mid-year. $24 is a buy point for me.
2. Nice bounce back in the fall, as often happens, and we'll see $34 before year-end.
3. $40 high in 2014 with most trading in being in the $32 to $35 range.
4. Carnac the Magnificent has spoken.
This indecisiveness will not go on forever, and when the people make up thier minds, thier money will surely follow.
I will say though, I wouldn't trade any paper money into physical Silver unless we are talking discressionary funds.
Basically don't bet the farm!
It's all about what the people want...
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/gold/liberty-head-2-1-gold-major-sets/liberty-head-2-1-gold-basic-set-circulation-strikes-1840-1907-cac/alltimeset/268163
I wish I could be more specific but I am so green at bullion.... I don't even know where to buy any.
Ray
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Herb
<< <i>collapse >>
Silver or the dollar?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
In other words............A Tease.
Or just maybe, silver will be just like that gorgeous girl that gave the impression that she was just a tease,
But really wasn't.
I knew it would happen.
ps...I told a member here on 2/20 in a private message that I thought silver was going to test $27, this after making the public call that silver was going to run under $30 no long before. Sometimes, it sucks being right, but it is what it is. You have to look at it objectively and be honest to yourself in what you see on the chart.
$27 better hold because $22 would be the next stop in my opinion.
I knew it would happen.
Many here predicted softening spot this year.
I posted, along with others , testing of the $22-$25 range.
There is no genius here, rather 20 or so guys plugged into what is going on and able
to make educated guesses. Nothing more.
Loves me some shiny!
<< <i>
<< <i>collapse >>
Silver or the dollar? >>
The OPs question was near term. You answer.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Where's my man Roadrunner, the person of reason ............. or is that the silence you're referring to
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>collapse >>
Silver or the dollar? >>
The OPs question was near term. You answer. >>
I don't know short term. If I did, I'd be rich. Long term, I'm voting on silver.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
I don't know if it will go much lower than 25 silver / 1500 gold on this leg down, before a small bounce back, but the days of 2k gold and 40$ silver are a thing of the past until the next bull run /next cycle years down the road.
by mid 2014 sub 1000 gold and sub 15 silver is my call
Looks like a decaying orbit. We've seen it before, a slow, long bleed down striking fear and loathing for the weaker hands. The stackers, on the other hand, just lick their lips in situations like this. I postulate that the settling of prices downward does the paper boys much good because when the metals are climbing, you see all the stories about people yelling about a COMEX default and news stories about ETF delivery demands. When prices are falling, you really don't see much of that. One thing I do know is that you can't call the top or bottom because the game is being run by others so your only option is to play or not play and most of us smaller fishes have a number in mind. Of course there is a third option, just keep stackin'.
PM markets are volatile, there are periods of decline and periods of appreciation. The underlying reasons why we have seen a bull market in PM over the past decade haven't changed.
People need to chill, the sky isn't falling.
If you are in it for the long haul, enjoy the $ cost avg down. If you aren't, sell as its probably going lower (i hope...)
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"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Good 24 hr sale now going on.
Can't catch a falling knife, don't plan on selling soon, longer term hold.
Now I have bought and sold over 4.5 Million In PM's in one form or another since 2010.
Just yesterday, you said "stack cash, for now." Now that's a change of heart
sorry buddy, couldn't resist
<< <i>I''m buying, I believe bottom is in/near enough
Just yesterday, you said "stack cash, for now." Now that's a change of heart
sorry buddy, couldn't resist >>
I noticed that too, but being a rookie, I was just watching from the cheap seats.
<< <i>I''m buying, I believe bottom is in/near enough
Just yesterday, you said "stack cash, for now." Now that's a change of heart
sorry buddy, couldn't resist >>
what a difference one day can make!
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Some people are hilarious. A few weeks ago, silver was the best thing since sliced bread. This week, its collapsing.
PM markets are volatile, there are periods of decline and periods of appreciation. The underlying reasons why we have seen a bull market in PM over the past decade haven't changed.
People need to chill, the sky isn't falling.
If you are in it for the long haul, enjoy the $ cost avg down. If you aren't, sell as its probably going lower (i hope...) >>
I don't read that at all. Everyone seems very consistent in their views. But a good investor will change his opinion overnight if warranted
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Silver is a very interesting element with a wide variety of industrial applications. It is all but useless in coin and bar form, though. >>
Baley, I really can't figure you out at all.
Sometimes you're very wise....other times you've got me shaking my head in disbelief.
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
<< <i>What do you think silver is going to do in the very near future ?.......all opinions appreciated. >>
It will continue to present itself to me at great prices for the next week. Then I will be wishing that I had bought more. Happens every time.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
The stock market is getting tired and running out of steam. It may go a bit higher, but highly doubtful it surpasses the all-time high. I've seen this play out too many times in the past and I'm not falling for the "jump on board" mentality many are preaching in regards to the stock market. The tremendous negative sentiment and technical charts of the metals and miners are what is driving my investment mentality and rationale, and that's where my money is positioned.
As for my 70% in cash, well that's awaiting direction and opportunity as this market shows what it really has in store for us.
<< <i>Silver is a very interesting element with a wide variety of industrial applications. It is all but useless in coin and bar form, though. >>
A stock certificate is pretty useless in its physical form as well, but can be sold just like the coin or bar.
sebrown, what's "miners?" and "6-mo out call options of a junior miner ETF" ??? I don't think I've heard that before. I do have a friend that goes gem mining in TN and NC on occasion, but you're talking about something else right?
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<< <i>sebrown, what's "miners?" and "6-mo out call options of a junior miner ETF" ??? I don't think I've heard that before. I do have a friend that goes gem mining in TN and NC on occasion, but you're talking about something else right? >>
Yes, something completely different. "ETF" stands for Exchange Traded Fund and the options I purchased are "Call" options that expire Aug 17, 2013 (actually 5 1/2 months out). Each contract gives me the option to purchase 100 shares of the underlying stock. They are a very risky investment and quite often expire worthless, but I never hold an option to expiration.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>
<< <i>Silver is a very interesting element with a wide variety of industrial applications. It is all but useless in coin and bar form, though. >>
A stock certificate is pretty useless in its physical form as well, but can be sold just like the coin or bar.
that's a great point, and fully agree. In fact, since most stock investors don't even have a certificate but instead have an electronic statement, it has even less practical use than a piece of metal, except as a store of value and potential grower of capital (which is, of course, not a negligible trait). However, with the stock, you have a share of ownership in a business, with plant and equipment, ongoing operations, and in the efforts of the people working to grow the value of the business. Some would have you believe there is no honesty left in America, but I don't believe that they are telling the truth when they say that
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>What do you think silver is going to do in the very near future ?.......all opinions appreciated.
IMO silver will ends the years substantially higher than the current price.
Silver is an industrial metal and the amount is limited.
I buy $10/face of junk silver every week and stash it away.
YMMV
<< <i>Some would have you believe there is no honesty left in America, but I don't believe that they are telling the truth when they say that
Sad but true!
I sort of agree with the above article. Short term due for a bounce right here, longer term....roll the dice. Silver, gold, dollar, cando, GSr, sentiment levels, etc. all hit various key trend lines, indicator limits, etc. during last week. Silver's COT commercial levels dropped drastically to a much more bearish 1.58 short to long ratio. At least it's now in the range where intermediate bottoms have occurred (ie 1.35-1.75). Next week has no real headwinds for silver other than the end of week jobs report. The week after that is a return to the usually bearish TBond auctions and equity options expiration (ie SLV, SIL, silver miners, etc.).
The Bullish Percentage for GDM (GDX) hit 3.3% last week, the lowest since December 2008. Note that the 0% seen in Dec 2008 occurred 6 weeks after miners bottomed. The BPGDM was at 28% the week of the HUI price low in late October. In that respect the current BPGDM is the lowest of this bull market since the low may still not be in. Other sentiment levels for gold and silver are at levels not seen since 2008 or even earlier. Public sentiment for gold is at very low 41% (see chart below). Have to allow for the potentially bearish outcomes if this period lingers into April-June or longer. If the dollar simply runs up into its 9 year consolidation triangle (ie .85 to .86), that will certainly push metals down.
Large specs in gold (or managed money) went to an aburd level of gross short positions 2 weeks ago. That just has to be pulled back somewhat. That occurred while commercials were heavily dumping their short positions. Of note too is that over the past 2 months the commercials have made very large shifts in their net positions on the dollar (now significantly short), cando (now long for the first time since July 2012), and aussie (far less short than before). These trends can continue without dropping the dollar, but the commercials are loading up for the next turn in all three. In 2008 these extreme levels held for a couple months while PMs chopped lower. Gold and now silver have broken below their 4 yr uptrend lines which opens up a huge amount of "potential" downside in the long term. In the short term silver has been cycling low and high around the first of the month since last October. With March 1st recording a low, I'd have to bet on later March ending up noticeably higher. Could be wrong, but have a feeling that on Thursday/Friday we saw short term tops in the dollar and Gold to Silver ratio. Each of these has been putting in tops every 8 weeks or so. The symmetry in the GLD chart over the past 5 months is quite striking with down legs of 19, 19, and 22 days each. The 2 counter moves lasted several weeks each. Silver follows gold. The 6 weeks down we just saw in silver is very similar in movement to the 4 weeks in late Nov-late Dec. The 40 and 15 yr silver seasonals show Feb to be a down month with a rebound starting in late Feb or very early March. March tends to be a recovery month. That makes even more sense since it's been moving lower for 5 months and in particular sharply down the past 4 weeks.
Sentiment charts and gold
Silver market and charts
I don't agree with everything these 2 guys have stated in their articles. But the charts are what I wanted to post.
Gold to Silver ratio chart - indicators trying to break out of overbought territory
Dollar chart
<< <i>OP must not read this board much.
Many here predicted softening spot this year.
I posted, along with others , testing of the $22-$25 range.
There is no genius here, rather 20 or so guys plugged into what is going on and able
to make educated guesses. Nothing more. >>
all falling into place....everyone wanted a chance to add to the stack in the low 20s 2 years ago..
Viola! Best thing every for Phyz long term strong hands.
Loves me some shiny!
Here we go again, with all of the Bernanke ???? whatever he meant and a long holiday weekend coming up........whats everyone thinking here?
In advance, thanks for your views and have a great Memorial Weekend.
<< <i>Here we go again, with all of the Bernanke ???? whatever he meant and a long holiday weekend coming up........whats everyone thinking here?
In advance, thanks for your views and have a great Memorial Weekend. >>
What did he say? Pls. share with us who missed it...Thx.
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