interesting that on a day the sky is falling...
cohodk
Posts: 19,095 ✭✭✭✭✭
So is gold.
Just sayin.
Have a great weekend everybody.
Just sayin.
Have a great weekend everybody.
Excuses are tools of the ignorant
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
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"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
<< <i>long term is all that counts[/q
Amen!
<< <i>It is a daily ride.... long term is all that counts... Cheers, RickO >>
Lets hope it doesn't turn into a lifetime. Shades of 1980 come to mind.
I think money is going back too real estate, real coin rarities and the stock market, and a few other things.
I believe we are in a slow decline back to 1200 gold with ups and downs along the way.
gold in backwardation
So far I haven't noticed anyone locally refusing to sell to me at spot locally but I only picked up a few tenths in the past month. I have been feeling like its going down so why buy in front of a drop. However ,if it becomes more pronounced shouldn't the supply of physical to buy at spot dry up?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
would each contract going forward have to be lower than the one before to be truly in backwardation?
<< <i>would each contract going forward have to be lower than the one before to be truly in backwardation? >>
Yes.
I have only seen backwardation twice, although there may have been other times in the last 5 years, but once was oil in 2008. The other silver in 2011.
Backwardation always ends very badly for the Bulls.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>It is a daily ride.... long term is all that counts... Cheers, RickO >>
Lets hope it doesn't turn into a lifetime. Shades of 1980 come to mind. >>
You've got to be kidding!!
The US Fed can't even raise rates by 2%, (without everything imploding), you expect them to raise rates to 19%??
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
<< <i>
<< <i>It is a daily ride.... long term is all that counts... Cheers, RickO >>
Lets hope it doesn't turn into a lifetime. Shades of 1980 come to mind. >>
Things are very different today than in 1980, interest rates were quite high before the fed raised rates up to nearly 20% it would be impossible for the fed to raise rates to 20% today considering the mountain of debt this country is drowning in. Look at the national debt in 1980 compared to today, in order for the government to try and keep it in line they have kept interest rates artificially low for many years to the point that rates can not be lowered and have only one way to go. How are they supposed to stop inflation if they can't afford to raise interest rates? What would happen to the bond market if rates needed to be raised to stop inflation? Anyone with an ounce of common sense should be able to see that this eventually will not end well for our country no matter how much of a devil's advocate they like to be.
Listening to the very boring Saturday morning real estate show, apparently the NAR thinks that real estate is humming right along, and that it's a mere snap to pick up a $450,000 house that was priced at $600,000 back in 2006-2007.
Something simply doesn't compute.
I knew it would happen.
Coinfame,Kaelasdad,Type2,UNLVino,MICHAELDIXON
Justacommeman,tydye,78saen,123cents,blue62vette,Segoja,Nibanny
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>It is a daily ride.... long term is all that counts... Cheers, RickO >>
Lets hope it doesn't turn into a lifetime. Shades of 1980 come to mind. >>
You've got to be kidding!!
The US Fed can't even raise rates by 2%, (without everything imploding), you expect them to raise rates to 19%?? >>
Why would everything implode? Higher rates would encourage savings and sttengthen the dollar.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The term artificial gets banteted about way too much.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>How low will gold fall? >>
I'm just glad that big asteroid didn't hit. Gold might have been down 300.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I love the artificially low rates talk. Rates are not artificially low. If the markets wanted higher rates they would get them. The markets are bigger than any FED. When it is time for higher rates, It will be the markets decision not the feds.
The term artificial gets banteted about way too much. >>
Most if not all your posts I agree with.
This one I strongly disagree.
Rates are controlled and are artificially low.
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
I'll agree that the FED controls the short end of the yield curve, but not the long end. I believe the long end is the tail that wags the dog named FED and is controlled by the markets. Just think of an inverted yield curve. It is the market that drives down the long end--usually in anticipation of an economic slowdown---and lo and behold the FED begins to lower rates about 6-9 months later. The same thing happens during an economic expansion. The long end begins to go high which is then FOLLOWED by the FED raising rates.
In the end, it is always the markets that drives the central banks.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
You rang?
What exactly does that mean? Will cities be burned to the ground? Crops will fail? Pestilence?
Lets say the dollar is devalued by 50% tomorrow? What will happen? No food in the stores? No gasoline? Drs offices closed? Would our satellites crash to Earth? Our navy sink? Our missiles destroyed?
Gold may double, but so would all other dollar denominated assets including my house and the old snowmobile in the back shed. Life would go on, just as it has in Argentina, Russia, Poland, ect. I have not been to Russia, but I have been to Poland, and I can tell you that the standard of living today is much, much better now than before the zloty was devalued. Do the people in Venezuela live any differently today than a month ago? Take a look at the Venezuela stock market and tell me the devaluation had an adverse reaction on stocks.
If you are holding all your assets in paper dollars, then yes you will suffer, but our country will continue on and continue to be a global superpower. The USA is not based on dollars, but rather the combined intellect, wisdom and intestinal fortitude of 330 million people.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>this eventually will not end well for our country no matter how much of a devil's advocate they like to be.
You rang?
What exactly does that mean? Will cities be burned to the ground? Crops will fail? Pestilence?
Lets say the dollar is devalued by 50% tomorrow? What will happen? No food in the stores? No gasoline? Drs offices closed? Would our satellites crash to Earth? Our navy sink? Our missiles destroyed?
Gold may double, but so would all other dollar denominated assets including my house and the old snowmobile in the back shed. Life would go on, just as it has in Argentina, Russia, Poland, ect. I have not been to Russia, but I have been to Poland, and I can tell you that the standard of living today is much, much better now than before the zloty was devalued. Do the people in Venezuela live any differently today than a month ago? Take a look at the Venezuela stock market and tell me the devaluation had an adverse reaction on stocks.
If you are holding all your assets in paper dollars, then yes you will suffer, but our country will continue on and continue to be a global superpower. The USA is not based on dollars, but rather the combined intellect, wisdom and intestinal fortitude of 330 million people. >>
"...but rather the combined intellect, wisdom and intestinal fortitude of 330 million people." How is that adjusted for inflation? Have you seen what is being taught in schools these days? I still have a few kids in school and it's shocking. Their competition (Chinese) spend 220 days in school and in Germany the kids are in class for 185. In the States, 165-170. Intestinal fortitude? Kids are being wimp-ized. No dodge ball, trophies for 13th place, grades are replaced with pass or try again, it's all about their feelings, etc... Every year the USA kids are falling further behind while the competition moves beyond the horizon. That doesn't portend well.
It appears to me that all the tax money sent to education doesn't seem to be arriving.
<< <i>this eventually will not end well for our country no matter how much of a devil's advocate they like to be.
You rang?
What exactly does that mean? Will cities be burned to the ground? Crops will fail? Pestilence?
Lets say the dollar is devalued by 50% tomorrow? What will happen? No food in the stores? No gasoline? Drs offices closed? Would our satellites crash to Earth? Our navy sink? Our missiles destroyed?
Gold may double, but so would all other dollar denominated assets including my house and the old snowmobile in the back shed. Life would go on, just as it has in Argentina, Russia, Poland, ect. I have not been to Russia, but I have been to Poland, and I can tell you that the standard of living today is much, much better now than before the zloty was devalued. Do the people in Venezuela live any differently today than a month ago? Take a look at the Venezuela stock market and tell me the devaluation had an adverse reaction on stocks.
If you are holding all your assets in paper dollars, then yes you will suffer, but our country will continue on and continue to be a global superpower. The USA is not based on dollars, but rather the combined intellect, wisdom and intestinal fortitude of 330 million people. >>
Let me put it to you in layman's terms, the average American is deeply in debt and so is the country. Let's look at the country first, the idea is to inflate away the debt we owe to China, Japan, Middle east, etc. This all works fine and dandy as long as they think that continuing to purchase our debt makes sense, so what happens when they decide to invest their money elswhere? Will this be a good thing for the United States? I suppose the fed could continue helping purchase government bonds but that would simply mean creating more money to fund the nation's debt which would be highly inflationary plus add to the national debt. In this scenerio all of the things that you mentioned will go up in value INCLUDING SILVER AND GOLD which you love to belittle. I guess for me life would be great because my home, farmland, PM's and stock accounts would march onward and upward and I have very little money in savings so the dollar destruction wouldn't matter that much to me, also the value of the crops I raise (corn, soybeans, wheat) would go way up in price to help secure a good living for me.
However I do think about the welfare of other people and would hate to see their standard of living decline to the point of poverty, many people from the older generation are being severely hurt by the current economic environment of low interest rates. Many other people in this country including highly educated individuals are having a hard time finding decent paying jobs so are forced to take jobs in the service sector. It would be nice if the government focused on bringing back good paying manufacturing jobs to this country instead of growing government and the regulations that come along with it.
Do I think the ships would sink, satellites crash to earth, missiles be destroyed and all the food vanish before our very eyes if the dollar loses 50% of it's value??? I have no idea where that came from but I suppose I better tell you no just to clarify it.
OMG, isn't that the truth.
The other ingredient changing America's future is Immigration.
America's best days are over IMHO.
Cohodk,
Thanks for your perspective. Respectively disagree though. Almost everything in this country is manipulated in one way or the other. To think otherwise is very naive.
<< <i>So is gold.
Just sayin.
Have a great weekend everybody.
Perfect mid-month OE week hit as I stated over the last 2 weeks:
TBond auctions
End of week G20 meeting of finance ministers
GLD, SLV, GDX, SIL, and GDXJ options expiration week.
Currency wars continuing to ramp up.
You could see this hit coming from a mile away.
No change in QE's. M0 took a prompt rise out its 18 month consolidation phase. M2 still on the same 8-10% annual rise.
I suspect after a brief bounce or sideways move next week gold will get hit again the last week of the month during another set of Treasury auctions and gold's OE week.
The overall weakness could last into the end of March.
I also agree with you, but I would hardly call that scenario, "ending badly". There are lots of suppositions in your argument, the largest and most often discussed, (erroneously), is that foreign buyers will stop buying US debt. But lets suppose this true. If so, then it will be the markets dictating interest rates--just as they always do. Nothing artificial.
A devaluation tomorrow would do nothing, imo, to end the global dominance that the USA enjoys in so many areas.
Renman---US students go to school for 180 days. And there is plenty of opportunity for a parent to continue his childs education for 365 days if he wishes. I will agree that many schools have become institutions of baby sitting, but I think education starts at home. I know for a fact that MY KIDS are not falling behind.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The largest 2 factors in determining interest rates are the FED buying the bulk of Treasury Bonds/Notes and the $900 TRILL world wide position in otc interest rate contracts.
I consider both of those factors very artificial. The interest rate "market" is almost entirely artificial within the small band it is currently managed. Take away the FED and
net out the otc IR contracts, then we'd have a market again. But, most wouldn't like where interest rates would end up.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I knew it would happen.
a rise in rates will blow up many things, especially interest rate swaps. The market, nor its puppetmaster the FED, will allow rates to noticably rise any time soon. Consider it a paradigm shift and the new norm.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Yes, the FED has some control of the short end. The derivative stuff is the market. When the market wants higher rates, it will get them. Right now the market is very content. >>
No arguing with this statement!
<< <i>Yukon.....I dont belittle gold or silver. I just dont worship as many do. If gold and silver and real estate and old snowmobiles benefit from a devaluation, then why only concentrate on PMs? Thats my point, always has been, always will be. If one concentrates on only a single asset class, then he is most likely to under-perform his peers. You have only been on this board for 15 months, so all you've heard from me is how much I think PM are dead in the water. So far i've been right. Lots of good and well meaning money has been tied up in PMs when it could have been allocated elsewhere. This is what I cautioned. If/when gold and silver get to 1300/20 then you may very well hear me change my tune. Managing risk is much more important than managing money, and this is what most "professionals" forget.
I also agree with you, but I would hardly call that scenario, "ending badly". There are lots of suppositions in your argument, the largest and most often discussed, (erroneously), is that foreign buyers will stop buying US debt. But lets suppose this true. If so, then it will be the markets dictating interest rates--just as they always do. Nothing artificial.
A devaluation tomorrow would do nothing, imo, to end the global dominance that the USA enjoys in so many areas.
Renman---US students go to school for 180 days. And there is plenty of opportunity for a parent to continue his childs education for 365 days if he wishes. I will agree that many schools have become institutions of baby sitting, but I think education starts at home. I know for a fact that MY KIDS are not falling behind. >>
I do agree with you that PM's haven't done much the past 2 years but I have been buying and trading gold and silver back to the late 80's when I finally had some cash to do so. I would be a liar if I said I haven't benefited from the current economic situation of low interest rates and high commodity prices so perhaps I should just keep my mouth shut and be happy as a clam. In fact I have done very well buying coins off the internet and selling them at auction, some of these profits have gone into savings and some go into unusual silver bars, a gold Engelhard prospector in original Engelhard holder, some 90%, etc. The problem is it's becoming much harder to find good stuff to buy. I have also been saving up for a 2014 Shelby Mustang which will come in after my trip to China in march so yes my life is good, no complaints. I think I will step away from this forum and not post until PM's actually start doing something so perhaps I will not post for a long time but I still believe that we haven't seen a blow off top in PM's yet.
Forgot to add that lately most of my money has been going into a few more guns and ammo, I like target shooting and occasional hunting so it's always good to have a stash.
Don't go stepping away we need everyone we have at the moment in here to keep up a good debate and range of opinions.
We have lost a few voices in here over the past few months it seems like, we can't spare what we have left ,we don't want the PM forum to become the stamp forum
<< <i>Don't go stepping away we need everyone we have at the moment in here to keep up a good debate and range of opinions.
We have lost a few voices in here over the past few months it seems like, we can't spare what we have left ,we don't want the PM forum to become the stamp forum
Well I come here every day and read what people have to say. It's easy to get discouraged when prices are going down, lately I have gotten a little bit discouraged with the rangebound trading of 29-32 with occasional blips above or below but I keep adding a bit when the price gets in the 29's even though I really don't need any more silver.
As for gold I should purchase more of it but I don't really see the value in relation to silver so I have enough to benefit some from a price move if gold moves seperate from silver.
I have stated many times that I view my PM holdings as insurance against fiat which could turn into an investment if enough people with deep pockets started buying.
I went to a silver seminar put on by David Morgan roughly 4 years ago and it was his opinion that things would really start jumping around 2013-14. At the time silver was below $20 and it did hit nearly $50 after this meeting but he indicated several times that his price projection was $100 so time will tell. I do believe that silver will eventually eclipse $100 and possibly $200 or more the only question is when it will happen and what will trigger it. Peace everyone and good luck with your PM stack's.
<< <i>Don't go stepping away we need everyone we have at the moment in here to keep up a good debate and range of opinions.
We have lost a few voices in here over the past few months it seems like, we can't spare what we have left ,we don't want the PM forum to become the stamp forum
Yes we have lost a few voices in here, gecko comes to mind and while he ruffled some feathers I think it was good to have him here. Just like some others here who I have debated with, it is boring if everyone has the same opinion so I should welcome a different opinion but I am stubborn Norwegion so sometimes I let my pride get the best of me.
I'm not sure if some people have gotten worn out from the rangebound trading but remember that many times in equities that when a stock trades rangebound it breaks out of the trading wedge to the upside or it can trade to the downside creating either panic or a buying opportunity.
I miss numbersUSA
I think you would find that in not much different than you.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear