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Inflation Report Thread

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  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,941 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Did many hitch their inflationary horse to the wrong asset? >>



    image

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,187 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Did many hitch their inflationary horse to the wrong asset? >>



    image >>



    Are you trying to illustrate silver?
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,899 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Is there an ETF bet I can make on healthcare costs? I have a hunch that healthcare costs are going up.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭
    lets c, prices...
    junk silver was $32+ X face, now 16X...

    just got this past week
    10lbs porterhouse 4.99lb, 12 avocados for 3x $1, 9 lbs of tomatos for 3lbsX $1, 15lbs of chicken legs for .69lb,
    20lbs of spaghetti for $1.28 x 2lbs
    at the local grocery store
    keceph `anah
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,661 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Is there an ETF bet I can make on healthcare costs? I have a hunch that healthcare costs are going up. >>



    Yes, there are many healthcare ETFs, Here's One Example that was pointed out in January, handed to you "on a silver platter", as it were.

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • DrBusterDrBuster Posts: 5,409 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Beef jerky, used to be the big bag was 5 or 6 oz for $5 - buck or less an oz a couple years ago. Now that same bag, for $5.99, is 3-3.25 oz, almost doubled.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,941 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Get used to inflation and deflation at the same time. Consumer consumables and surcharges/taxes will see inflation. Hard assets will see deflation. Everything else will be somewhere in between. It's the new normal.

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,187 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Consumer consumables and surcharges/taxes will see inflation. Hard assets will see deflation

    Then spend that money and have fun!!!image
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,941 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • metalmeistermetalmeister Posts: 4,586 ✭✭✭✭✭

    1/2" OSB was $8 last year and is now $56 . The whole lumber supply chain is wonky.

    email: ccacollectibles@yahoo.com

    100% Positive BST transactions
  • rickoricko Posts: 98,724 ✭✭✭✭✭

    If you want to see REAL price increases, check ammunition...if you can find it....Unbelievable. It does not affect me personally, since through many years of accumulation, I could stock a store or two. But it sure is hurting those who go from box to box. Cheers, RickO

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,959 ✭✭✭✭✭

    No inflation to report from The Commonwealth really. Other than the lumber shortage (temporary) I did pay $6.99 a gallon for fresh pressed cider. Typically it's $5.99 but I seem to remember it always being slightly higher when we are out of peak season. Slight increase on the price of mason jars also but it's spring and peeps are starting to think about gardening. RGDS!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
    BOOMIN!™

  • HigashiyamaHigashiyama Posts: 2,192 ✭✭✭✭✭

    My wife and I have been shopping for a new car - our first in many years. I’m shocked at how inexpensive they seem. When adjusted for quality, comfort, safety, standard options, fuel mileage, etc, prices seem lower than they were 10 - 15 years ago. We’re buying now in part because we’re anticipating inflation - but we’re sure not seeing it yet in this domain.

    Higashiyama
  • DrBusterDrBuster Posts: 5,409 ✭✭✭✭✭

    What cars are you looking at that are cheaper? I can't get my same truck for less than 10k more on sticker for the past few years.

  • HigashiyamaHigashiyama Posts: 2,192 ✭✭✭✭✭

    We’re looking at relatively moderately priced Japanese SUVs. One particular model has gone from roughly $25k to $32k over 14 years. That’s about 2 % per year and the current model is a significantly more impressive car.

    Higashiyama
  • HigashiyamaHigashiyama Posts: 2,192 ✭✭✭✭✭

    (Dealers are saying that due to various supply line issues, prices will be heading up; normally I would discount this as high pressure hype; in this case, I tend to believe it, but I’m not sure that this tells us much about the longer term)

    Higashiyama
  • element159element159 Posts: 524 ✭✭✭

    I think there will be no discounts on new cars for a while. There is a semiconductor supply problem that cannot be immediately fixed, so in addition to a supply crunch the new cars might not have entirely full functionality. This is a result of planning for a big drop in car sales during the pandemic which did not happen. But this will get fixed eventually, in a few years.
    There are lots of things whose supply and/or demand has been out-of-whack during all this, which will affect prices, but this will also eventually return to normal.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,941 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited April 24, 2021 2:46PM

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • ctf_error_coinsctf_error_coins Posts: 15,433 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Inflation is overrated.

    How does it account for the iPhone or the personal computer or the internet?

    None of these existed 50 years ago.

    What about the sonar and GPS on my ocean-going kayak?

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,238 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @ErrorsOnCoins said:
    Inflation is overrated.

    How does it account for the iPhone or the personal computer or the internet?

    None of these existed 50 years ago.

    What about the sonar and GPS on my ocean-going kayak?

    how much more are you paying for fish?

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,238 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I have not looked into the fed's favorite PCE - personal Consumption Expenditures.

    now that it is mentioned, internet access is not universal here but it is becoming a personal expenditure must have. the same for cell phones. though land lines may be falling out of favor with the individual consumer. it is a curiosity how the fed made the jump to light speed using their navicompter on this one.

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,661 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited April 24, 2021 3:13PM

    The fish can be "free", once you've spent enough of your dollars on equipment and hours of your time. 😉

    Electronic gadgets continue to get better, smaller, and less expensive per unit of memory, Quality, utility. A $200 TV today is an order of magnitude or two better than a $1000 TV when we were kids.

    Lots of demand has shifted, in the past year, from out of home experiences towards home improvements, and from air travel and hotels towards automobile upgrades (the 3 year old lease return for half price on a nearly new luxury car is a great deal, versus a brand-new base model at full sticker)

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,238 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I know. that was a deadpan joke

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,238 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Baley said:

    Electronic gadgets continue to get better, smaller, and less expensive per unit of memory, Quality, utility. A $200 TV today is an order of magnitude or two better than a $1000 TV when we were kids.

    cars are better, too.

    but I don't want to pay for lane alert, "sleepy" warnings, and auto parallel parking. I'm fine without it. But here and there they are becoming standard. If you don't like those, I'll take it back to airbags. Sure, they are a life saver for me, however, how does PCE take into account no air bags from 1970 to now? I'm paying more for a car with more features. How much of a new car price is inflation and how much is due to required or "can't escape them" new features?

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,959 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MsMorrisine said:

    @ErrorsOnCoins said:
    Inflation is overrated.

    How does it account for the iPhone or the personal computer or the internet?

    None of these existed 50 years ago.

    What about the sonar and GPS on my ocean-going kayak?

    how much more are you paying for fish?

    $22.97 fishing license and $9.97 trout stamp upfront costs. .99 cents for a dozen meal worms and 2 hours of my time on average for 5 decent sized trout per trip. I average 10 trips a year so ~ $43 for 50 trout. Appears to be about $.43 cents /lb. Usually throw in a few walleye and perch trips out of North East and price per pound probably comes in a bit lower.

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
    BOOMIN!™

  • HigashiyamaHigashiyama Posts: 2,192 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MsMorrisine asked: “ How much of a new car price is inflation and how much is due to required or "can't escape them" new features?”

    I agree with this concern. I would love to be able to buy a very well made car with only the essential safety features; more manual and less electronic. Oddly, it might be very expensive to make such car-I wonder how big the market is?

    Higashiyama
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,941 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @blitzdude said:

    @MsMorrisine said:

    @ErrorsOnCoins said:
    Inflation is overrated.

    How does it account for the iPhone or the personal computer or the internet?

    None of these existed 50 years ago.

    What about the sonar and GPS on my ocean-going kayak?

    how much more are you paying for fish?

    $22.97 fishing license and $9.97 trout stamp upfront costs. .99 cents for a dozen meal worms and 2 hours of my time on average for 5 decent sized trout per trip. I average 10 trips a year so ~ $43 for 50 trout. Appears to be about $.43 cents /lb. Usually throw in a few walleye and perch trips out of North East and price per pound probably comes in a bit lower.

    even cheaper now to just buy the stupid tomatoes than to buy the tomato plant.

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • tincuptincup Posts: 5,186 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I happened to go through a farm supply store this last week, where they had tubs with little live chickens for sale. If I recall correctly.... $3.49 each?? (hope I'm mistaken). How can it be profitable to buy baby chickens, feed them to maturity, at a reasonable cost? Much cheaper IMO to buy the roasted chicken at a warehouse club.... and eggs at a grocery store.

    ----- kj
  • HigashiyamaHigashiyama Posts: 2,192 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said: "even cheaper now to just buy the stupid tomatoes than to buy the tomato plant."

    Sorry, I can't resist -- I'm growing mine from seed:

    I'll set these out in late May, and harvest well over 100 pounds through mid-October. Ignoring my labor, which really is free, my total cost will be less than 50 cents per pound for high quality.

    (Also, by working outside, I save all that money that some people spend on a gym membership ... )

    Higashiyama
  • DrBusterDrBuster Posts: 5,409 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited April 24, 2021 8:05PM

    @Higashiyama said:
    @MsMorrisine asked: “ How much of a new car price is inflation and how much is due to required or "can't escape them" new features?”

    I agree with this concern. I would love to be able to buy a very well made car with only the essential safety features; more manual and less electronic. Oddly, it might be very expensive to make such car-I wonder how big the market is?

    Yup.

    My jeep is 23 years old, airbags is about it and a marine grade radio (needs a new one), I still work on it. My truck is 11 with no screen, am/fm/cd/satellite, no bluetooth or extra safety features other than bags/belts. You just can't get that anymore. Neither of these vehicles will be sold pending total meltdown. Every year I get an offer on the jeep for what I paid for it 20+ years ago.

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,959 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited April 25, 2021 2:47AM

    @Higashiyama said:
    @derryb said: "even cheaper now to just buy the stupid tomatoes than to buy the tomato plant."

    Sorry, I can't resist -- I'm growing mine from seed:

    I'll set these out in late May, and harvest well over 100 pounds through mid-October. Ignoring my labor, which really is free, my total cost will be less than 50 cents per pound for high quality.

    (Also, by working outside, I save all that money that some people spend on a gym membership ... )

    Yes, and I'm too lazy to grow from seed. The Amish lady down the street sells me starter plants for .99 cents/6 pack. I will process and can a years worth of salsa and spaghetti sauce plus all the fresh tomatoes I can possibly eat from June - October. Not bad for .99 cents. I keep saying one of these years I will setup a grow in the basement and start my own from seed.

    @tincup said:
    I happened to go through a farm supply store this last week, where they had tubs with little live chickens for sale. If I recall correctly.... $3.49 each?? (hope I'm mistaken). How can it be profitable to buy baby chickens, feed them to maturity, at a reasonable cost? Much cheaper IMO to buy the roasted chicken at a warehouse club.... and eggs at a grocery store.

    $2.99 at the retailers up here, can get them for $1.99 from the locals. Those prices are for pullets, straight run are cheaper. My girls crank me out eggs every single day. They free range most of the time so feed costs are minimal. I'm at 17 right now and averaging 15 eggs a day. Wife takes them to work and sells the excess for $3/doz. This pays for their feed for the winter and straw for the coop and more than paid for the chicken so my eggs and meat are free. Not to mention no way I will find the same quality of either in any warehouse club or grocery store.

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
    BOOMIN!™

  • tincuptincup Posts: 5,186 ✭✭✭✭✭

    "Not to mention no way I will find the same quality of either in any warehouse club or grocery store."

    Have to agree with that. Same with home grown tomatoes.... no comparison to the bland gassed tomatoes one gets in a grocery store.

    ----- kj
  • ctf_error_coinsctf_error_coins Posts: 15,433 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MsMorrisine said:

    @ErrorsOnCoins said:
    Inflation is overrated.

    How does it account for the iPhone or the personal computer or the internet?

    None of these existed 50 years ago.

    What about the sonar and GPS on my ocean-going kayak?

    how much more are you paying for fish?

    I do end up paying way more for fish than you can get at the fish market.

    Fishing is expensive. The bigger the fish, the more expensive it gets.

  • metalmeistermetalmeister Posts: 4,586 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I hope lumber supply chain corrects. I have 2 projects that I want to start that have doubled in cost since last year.

    email: ccacollectibles@yahoo.com

    100% Positive BST transactions
  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,959 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @metalmeister said:
    I hope lumber supply chain corrects. I have 2 projects that I want to start that have doubled in cost since last year.

    I'm with you there. I was looking to reside one of my detached garages and a couple of out buildings. If I were to do it at current lumber prices it would cost more than it did to build the entire structures in the first place. I can't really wait on the garage. I've come to the realization that it's just going to cost what it's going to cost.

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
    BOOMIN!™

  • tincuptincup Posts: 5,186 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited April 25, 2021 11:05AM

    Yeh, sometimes you just got to 'bite down on the bullet' and proceed. I still remember buying my first home with interest at around 17%.... I thought I did good when I convinced the seller to self finance at 14%!! Oh well, I did have a home to live in... and I survived.

    ----- kj
  • DNADaveDNADave Posts: 7,277 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Cabinet grade 3/4” plywood was $65 a sheet today at Lowe’s.
    Regular old 5/8” plywood was $68.00 a sheet.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,941 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited April 27, 2021 1:25AM

    Interesting manufacturing comments from FED wbsite:

    • “It is very difficult to handle the increased business with supply chain issues across all materials and finding anyone who wants to work. The federal government has incentivized people to stay home and not be productive.”

    • “Stimulus and increased unemployment money are wrecking the labor pool. Lower level employees are quitting to make just as much not working.”

    • “Unemployed workers have no incentive to return to work given the COVID bonus payments.”

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,941 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Motel 6 is no longer $6 a night.

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • coinpalicecoinpalice Posts: 2,453 ✭✭✭✭✭

    the price of lumber has went up over 60 percent the past 6 months, the good news is all my investment property has went way up in value, the bad news
    is my property taxes went way up too, and people looking to buy or build a house will pay much more

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,187 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @coinpalice said:
    the price of lumber has went up over 60 percent the past 6 months

    Backwardation is awesome. Anyone know another commodity that is in backwardation?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • taxmadtaxmad Posts: 980 ✭✭✭✭

    @coinpalice said:
    the price of lumber has went up over 60 percent the past 6 months, the good news is all my investment property has went way up in value, the bad news is my property taxes went way up too, and people looking to buy or build a house will pay much more

    Wait until your insurance policy renews - most have coverage based on replacement cost...

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,941 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited April 27, 2021 6:29AM

    @taxmad said:

    @coinpalice said:
    the price of lumber has went up over 60 percent the past 6 months, the good news is all my investment property has went way up in value, the bad news is my property taxes went way up too, and people looking to buy or build a house will pay much more

    Wait until your insurance policy renews - most have coverage based on replacement cost...

    In Florida a double whammy - Insurers have won a battle that reduces their liability on roof damage, a major source of claims in hurricane country.

    And in most areas a new, higher "property value" increases the property tax every time the property changes owners. While property tax bills tend to creep up every year it is the recent inflated sale price that drastically increases the tax value (and the resulting taxes) of the property. When looking at annual property taxes on a prospective new home keep in mind that goes out the window when a new, higher sale price gets documented.

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,959 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited April 27, 2021 12:03PM

    Don't worry, at the rate of the polar ice melt Florida will be underwater soon enough. Property tax and roof damage are the least of your worries.

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
    BOOMIN!™

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,941 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited April 27, 2021 12:32PM

    get out from under the tin foil and out of the troll cave. Some sunlight would be good for you. I think you're taking this social distancing thing way too serious.

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • carew4mecarew4me Posts: 3,472 ✭✭✭✭

    @blitzdude said:
    Don't worry, at the rate of the polar ice melt Florida will be underwater soon enough. Property tax and roof damage are the least of your worries.

    yeah but big fun until then! I ordered a new hot tub to melt it faster...so I am doing my part. also looking at beach front property...in Maine...should be very pleasant in the next 20 years


    Loves me some shiny!
  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,959 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @tincup said:
    Yeh, sometimes you just got to 'bite down on the bullet' and proceed. I still remember buying my first home with interest at around 17%.... I thought I did good when I convinced the seller to self finance at 14%!! Oh well, I did have a home to live in... and I survived.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lumber-prices-232-could-spiral-090000342.html

    Lumber prices are up 232% and ‘could spiral out of control in the next few months’

    Last week the price per thousand board feet of lumber soared to an all-time high of $1,188, according to Random Lengths. Since the onset of the pandemic, lumber has shot up a whopping 232%.

    Home builders and DIYers don't want to hear this, but the ceiling could be higher—maybe even a lot higher. On Monday, the May futures contract price per thousand board feet of two-by-fours jumped $48 to $1,420. That squeeze once again triggered the circuit breakers and caused lumber trading to halt for the day.

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
    BOOMIN!™

  • metalmeistermetalmeister Posts: 4,586 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Copper too! 3/4" copper elbows are $2.50+ at Home Depot. Double from last year. Government is going full bore buying up all the lumber and copper they can get to build 10,000's of units for Permanent Free housing for the homeless in CA costing $750,000+ per unit. Making the situation worse for private sector builders. Permanent free housing? How did we go down this road? WTH?

    email: ccacollectibles@yahoo.com

    100% Positive BST transactions
  • tincuptincup Posts: 5,186 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Expect higher fast food and restaurant prices to come also.

    Every fast food place I drive past has signs up that they are hiring for all shifts. McDonalds has been in the news in Florida because they are paying $50... to anyone who even shows up for an interview!! Seems that no one wants to works anymore... much easier to stay home and and collect free money.

    Locally, a Sonic has changed it's hours... to now be 10:00 to 6:00. Even though they did a brisk breakfast business with earlier hours by opening previously at 6:00 (and staying open later also), looks like they reduced business hours likely because they just can't staff the shifts.

    Probably going to have to raise prices (higher wages needed to try to get anyone to work?). IMO does not bode well for our country... but will just have to see how it works out.

    ----- kj
  • ctf_error_coinsctf_error_coins Posts: 15,433 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Want people to work, very simple pay them more.

This discussion has been closed.